Transcription
I knocked for mother, it's 7, so the child should be 6. It's considered a disaster, P' New. But this morning, if I remember correctly, it was 5.8. And that means the eldest child is here. What we need to watch out for is indeed the aftershock, because the child will grow along with it and has the potential to be a disaster. The Kum area, I actually looked at the data, it's completely broken there. The blood streaks are long and stretch from Shizuoka all the way down. If you open Google Maps, Google Earth, you'll see mountain ranges that are sharp like a knife cutting the land, stretching from Shizuoka to Kumamoto and down into the bay there. It's a big one, and that area, geologically speaking, is called a complex. That area is completely broken, ready to trigger other faults. [Music] I'll summarize that actually, when a main shock occurs, there are 2 possibilities, 2, 2 types. The first type is to trigger other faults, which is actually very unlikely, less than 1%. Yes, because I've looked at the statistics, most are aftershocks. But in the case of Japan, if it were our country, I would say 100% aftershocks have passed. If it's Japan, you have to be prepared that a new one might come. Because actually, what kills us is not us standing in the middle of a field and convulsing to death from the earthquake's shaking, but what harms us to the point of death is the building. So, if the building is safe, the building is not vulnerable, even if we have no knowledge, it's okay. Okay? A bonus from an earthquake, when an earthquake occurs in a city, there are fires, and fires often spread because access to the area is lost, water systems are damaged, and so on. Kobe burned, San Francisco burned for 3 days and 3 nights. This is an explosion. So, I'm not saying it's a good thing, but I'm saying it happened because of earthquakes in cities. Okay? [Music] [Music] >> Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers. >> We are currently in a period of disrupting the current world order. >> Therefore, internationally, it is very dangerous. >> And if you don't want to miss good content, please subscribe. >> For the past 2 years, our financial institution system has remained strong. It won't be bad for anyone who wants to upgrade their knowledge in depth. We now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from Trad and Team Business Tomorrow. [Music] >> The earthquake [inhale] in Japan that occurred on July 28th, and there are many images of damage. The death toll has reached 30 people. Do you assess that this is an earthquake too big for Japan to handle? >> Uh, it's not that it's the biggest earthquake that they can't handle. The Japanese people can't handle it because actually, this earthquake, is it big? Yes, but not to the extent of 8 or 9. Normally, a magnitude 7 earthquake, Japan can handle almost all of them, P' New. >> Ah, there have been many magnitude 7 earthquakes before, it's not that this hasn't happened. But this time, Japan got through it comfortably, walking to eat ramen afterward almost every time. Yes, but this time there were deaths, this must be admitted. The cause can be explained. This magnitude 7 earthquake, or magnitude 6.8, is different from magnitude 6.8 or 7 in previous times. This time, it occurred very close to the city, almost in the middle of the city. We must admit that a magnitude 7 earthquake, shallow, very shallow, 10 kilometers is shallow. And occurring in the middle of the city, oh my, there must be some injuries and some deaths. >> We might compare it to previous magnitude 7 earthquakes where Japan survived, which were spread out everywhere, perhaps not. But I will invite you to compare it with other magnitude 7 earthquakes that occurred in cities. In 1995, there was a magnitude 7+ earthquake in Kobe. That was devastated, with fires too. 100 years ago, in 1902, there was a magnitude 7+ earthquake in San Francisco. >> America, that burned for 3 days and 3 nights and burned the whole city. Haiti, if we still remember, in 2017, it was also magnitude 7.0 or 7.1, I think. It occurred near the city. What happened? Hundreds of thousands died. So, if we compare it to general magnitude 7 earthquakes that Japan has experienced, this time Japan has some losses, some bloodshed, but if we compare it to magnitude 7 earthquakes in the middle of the city, this time Japan has very few. >> Yes. And it was announced that there would be aftershocks, and they could be strong aftershocks too. Are you worried about this, Professor? >> Actually, I'm not worried about the aftershock issue at all, because this morning it came out as 5.8. >> Uh-huh. >> I need to explain this, allow me to educate the public. Normally, an aftershock, or the eldest child, if we think of the main shock as the mother, the eldest child, the biggest one, this formula is quite stable, quite stable worldwide. The eldest child, the biggest one, will be mother -1. I knocked for mother, it's 7, so the child should be 6. 6. Before it happened, we had to be vigilant. When the magnitude 7 happened, if a magnitude 6 came, a magnitude 6 is considered a disaster, P' New. Yes, but this morning, if I remember correctly, it was 5.8. And that means the eldest child is here. Japan is still okay. A little bit. Normally, when a main shock occurs, if the main shock is large, such as 7 or 8 or something like that, what we need to watch out for is indeed the aftershock, because the child will grow along with it and has the potential to be a disaster. Okay? But this one has arrived. Now that it has arrived, and Japan is still okay, it means that next time, even the second, third, fourth child will be born smaller and smaller. Allow me to add a little more, P' New. Yes. I will say that Japan cannot be 100% complacent about this. Allow me to take some time, so it will be clear. Otherwise, people will think I... >> Yes. I will say that when a main shock earthquake occurs, faults will move, P' New. And when they move strongly, the stress or compression will be transferred. Normally, the transferred stress will be gradually released or dissipated in the form of aftershocks. Okay? >> Uh. >> However, if that area is an area where strong forces are applied severely, and there are many broken and collapsed faults, there is a chance that it will trigger other faults. If an earthquake of magnitude close to 7 or around 7 occurs again, it will not be surprising. But it will not be a child of this 6.8 or 7. It might be triggered because the Kumamoto area, I actually looked at the data, it's completely broken there, P'. >> The blood streaks are long and stretch from Shizuoka all the way down. Let's look at it. I invite the public. If anyone is interested in earthquake knowledge, go and look at Google Maps, Google Earth. You will see mountain ranges that are sharp like a knife cutting the land, stretching from Shizuoka to Kumamoto and down into the bay there. It's a big one. And that area, what is it called? I can't remember the Japanese name. It's a complex. Geologically, it's called a complex. That area is completely broken, ready to trigger other faults. Do you understand? So, to save time, I will summarize. Actually, when a main shock occurs, there are 2 possibilities, 2, 2 types. The first type is to trigger other faults, which is actually very unlikely, less than 1%. Yes, because I've looked at the statistics, most are aftershocks. But in the case of Japan, if it were our country, I would say 100% aftershocks have passed. If it's Japan, you have to be prepared that a new one might come, but it's very unlikely. >> Uh, meaning it has a chance to trigger other faults to shake, like that, Professor? >> Yes, because it's Japan, because it's Kumamoto. If it were elsewhere, I would say, oh, the aftershock has passed, don't worry. >> Yes. >> Yes. Professor, you've given advice that earthquakes cannot be predicted precisely in terms of time, only that certain areas are at risk. But now, after the main shock has occurred, we can predict, we can tell when and how aftershocks will follow. >> Oh, yes, we can. We can tell with science. Aftershocks, actually, the knowledge about aftershocks, humans, scientists worldwide know quite a bit. >> Yes. America gives probabilities, saying that this 6.8 event, this event, what's the probability of a magnitude 6 aftershock? What's the probability of a magnitude 5? What's the probability of a magnitude 4? And when should it happen? This is discussed. But regarding the main shock, um, we might not be able to tell when it will happen, like 2:45 PM or 7:46 PM. >> And I invite the public to think. I want to tell P' New and all the public that we don't need to know. >> It's truly useless to know, P'. >> Actually, it's useless to know. Let me ask you, if we knew it would happen at 8:45, what would we do? Close the som tum stall? >> Yes. Stop selling salmon? It's useless. >> Because that's about evacuation. What we should know, P' New, you've said it and revealed it. What we really need to know is which areas are at risk. >> Uh. >> When we know that, that's what we should use. When we know that there's a risk there, during our free time, when we're not busy selling som tum or noodles, we should reinforce the buildings to be strong. Because actually, what kills us is not us standing in the middle of a field and convulsing to death from the earthquake's shaking, but what harms us to the point of death is the building. So, if the building is safe, the building is not vulnerable, even if we have no knowledge, it's okay. Okay? >> Yes. >> Yes, but if the building is vulnerable, and we are inside the building, even if we have attended 15 courses abroad, we will die just the same. That's correct. >> Yes. In this case, I understand that Japan itself has buildings that meet standards. Aeon Mall also experienced a disaster in the past due to an earthquake, and this time, it appears there was a gas leak and other issues. Professor, could you analyze this? Does the construction of their buildings to withstand earthquakes need to consider other minor factors, not just the shaking? >> No, no need. Uh, let me clarify for P' New, point by point. >> Uh, fire, what is it? Mall explosion, right? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> This has happened before, it's normal. >> Uh. >> I'll adjust the scale for all the public. This is the normal face of earthquakes in cities. I've written an article about it. A bonus from an earthquake, when an earthquake occurs in a city, there are fires, and fires often spread because access to the area is lost, water systems are damaged, and so on. Kobe burned, San Francisco burned for 3 days and 3 nights. This is an explosion. So, I'm not saying it's a good thing, but I'm saying it happened because of earthquakes in cities. Okay? >> Yes. >> Second point. This is knowledge. I invite you to spread this knowledge to the public. I will say that Aeon Mall is not at fault at all, because humans worldwide... >> Give different importance to buildings. Can they make it 100% safe? Can Sato's house be made 100% safe? Can Shizuoka's house be made 100% safe? It can be 100% safe, but it costs a lot of money. Okay, P' New? Normally, these buildings, whether they are malls or residential buildings, are not built to withstand the worst-case scenario. Japanese people know, P', scientists know everything. They know how crazy it can get, maybe even more than the injuries. But is it worth it to increase the budget exponentially to be 100% safe? It's like buying insurance, P'. Yes. Humans worldwide do this. The chance of failure is 2%, the chance of failure is 10%. If the chance of failure is 10%, the higher chance, we use less budget for construction. For 2%, we use more budget. Most of these buildings don't use the "0% chance of failure" approach. A 0% chance of failure is usually used for large structures where, when a disaster occurs, the disaster has a wide impact. For example, two examples: large dams, nuclear power plants. We will build them to be as strong as possible. So, to summarize this point, the Aeon Mall case is not strange. It's because of the 2% chance that we coincidentally failed. This situation, if it happens 100 times, there will be 2 times that Aeon Mall fails, or maybe it's 10%. Yes, so it's possible. >> Definitely, the magnitude 7 that happened, I invite you to think. Definitely, the magnitude 7 that happened, Japan bent down for 2 minutes and went to eat ramen afterward. This time, it failed. >> Uh. And the fact that their leader came out to apologize and so on, is it just a courtesy of the leader, a custom, their practice, or does it actually mean that their situation is difficult to handle at this moment, Professor? >> I think it's more the leader's role and responsibility. Not that they have to, not that they have to, but no matter what happens, even the slightest thing, yes, they should take responsibility. This is their role. But in terms of practice, before this earthquake occurred, all areas did not prepare for the first-case scenario or the worst-case scenario, right? So, apologizing is their duty. >> Yes. >> Yes. The Kumamoto area today, looking at the news footage, Professor, it looks heavily damaged, and as mentioned, there's a chance of aftershocks following. Could you estimate how much risk this main shock, which you said is magnitude 7 or 6.8, and the child shock, which might be -1, or as mentioned, maybe magnitude 5 and others, while the city is still at risk, will pose to the lives of the people in Japan, especially in Kumamoto? >> Actually, Japan has already acted. They followed the protocol or the system that should be in place. When the magnitude 6.8 main shock occurred, actually, okay, some buildings collapsed, many buildings collapsed, some buildings remained standing normally, but Japan announced an evacuation. >> Yes. They evacuated. Why? Why evacuate when the event has passed? Oh, evacuate because... >> Uh. >> ...to monitor for aftershocks. And if I remember correctly, aftershocks came today, 5.8. >> Yes. >> They came, and it's okay now. Next, the situation will return to normal. >> I'll send news to the public and P' New. Actually, the condition of the houses looks heavily damaged. >> But it doesn't mean the world has become more dangerous. >> Coincidentally, this earthquake occurred close to humans. If it had happened elsewhere, not close to a city, I reiterate, Japan would not have suffered this much. Or if it were magnitude 7, to make it clearer, if it had happened in the middle of a forest in America, it would be dispersed, it wouldn't matter at all. But this time, the specificity, the peculiarity of this event is that the epicenter was close to the city. That's all there is to it. >> Yes. And Japan itself faces earthquakes all the time, every second, doesn't it? I've heard that it's actually shaking all the time, but sometimes humans don't perceive the vibrations. What is the reality of this, Professor? Regarding the frequent earthquakes in Japan, is it true? >> Yes. Japan is number 1 in earthquakes and volcanoes. It's not that I'm praising them because they are Japanese, but actually, based on scientific data, our world is divided into tectonic plates, as we learned in primary school. There are 14 plates. The largest plate is the Pacific plate, P' New. Yes, the largest plate is the Pacific plate, and it's also the fastest moving plate. Therefore, the tectonic plates that are adjacent to the Pacific plate all around are being pushed and pulled by the Pacific plate. The Pacific plate is moving fast. It's hitting Japan all around. Other areas might be scraped, other areas might be grazed, but the Pacific plate, the largest in the world, the fastest in the world, is colliding head-on with Japan. Therefore, Japan is number 1 in terms of the frequency of earthquakes per unit of time. It happens every day. It depends on the magnitude. If it's magnitude 1, it happens many times a day. Uh, just a little bit. Since we're talking about this, I'll say that earthquakes, whether in Japan or Thailand, we will feel them if the intensity is sufficient. The point is, earthquakes are not abnormal. It's like the wind blowing, because it's a natural phenomenon. The point we should be aware of is whether we have the opportunity to experience earthquakes that are a disaster. Yes, for example, if in our country, there's a chance of it happening, a magnitude 3 or 4, don't panic, don't blame the meteorological department for not warning, etc. Because it's not a disaster, it's just a natural phenomenon. What we know is news from the villagers, not disaster information. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PR KP and the Business Tomorrow team. Please subscribe.