Transcription
Hello, good day to everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about Bitcoin first, which is retesting its $94,000 level. Then, we will look at Ether, and altcoins that are correcting more than others. We will follow up on the two trades I have open. Three altcoins also that I have been asked to analyze, and we will talk about the US market. Before I start with Bitcoin, I want to remind those who are not aware. Every Sunday, I host the Trader Letter. It's 100% free, an email of about 3 to 5 minutes of reading where I cover a lot of topics. Trading, investing, crypto, mindset, my trades, psychology, lessons, whatever. The goal is to bring you maximum added value through a unique email. Each Sunday email is unique. If you miss the next one, you will never find it elsewhere. It's 100% free. I invite you, if you wish, to join us by clicking on the first link in the description. You leave your email and you can join the more than 1500 traders who are already subscribed. If the email doesn't interest you, if you want to unsubscribe at some point, you can simply unsubscribe through the emails. So there you go, I invite you in any case to click on the first link in the description if you want maximum value to better succeed in your year 2026.
Now, here on Bitcoin, we are at a decisive level, a level, a small phase of uncertainty that I see on social networks, on Discord, and in many, many places. And we are really at an important level. We are pulling back our previous H range, and this is a level that must hold. We are in a phase of uncertainty because many are asking the question: are we going to leave, or are we making some kind of distribution here with a re-entry to go for the lower extremity? And for some, including myself, it's true that since I saw it in 2022, it reminds me a bit of the phase where we had our market top, bearish trend, sideways phase, break, bottom structure, pullback at the pivot point, rejection, and then re-entry. Here, we see that we are at our main pivot point, and in 2022, well, we had our market top, bearish trend, sideways phase, break, pullback at the main yearly pivot point, and rejection. Will we do the same thing? I don't know for now, I'm not starting to anticipate these kinds of things. However, for me, here, in fact, we are in a phase where you really have to understand that many will look for, in this kind of phase, I know it, you will recognize yourselves, those who are listening to me, you will watch 20, 30 videos on YouTube trying to find confirmations saying, "Oh, this one said this, that one said that," and so on. And you will perhaps have half saying it will pump, half saying it will re-enter, you will automatically have contradictory opinions. What will make the difference between a person who succeeds or not, regardless of whether we do this or that, is not their ability to do technical analysis. It's not their ability to predict the future because no one can predict it. It's their ability here to manage their risk and to manage their psychology well so as not to make bad decisions. Simply put, it will depend on whether we do this or that, having risk management, portfolio management that is in line with your analysis, your strategy, and your profile, and that you implement. This is really important because there's no point in looking for 40,000 videos of people who will say "we're going to do this, we're going to do that." Technically, no one knows anything. It's probabilities. We have a higher probability of having a continuation here. Okay? The person who tells us "no, higher chance of continuation here." No, we just broke. So technically, there's a higher chance of flipping this resistance level into support. Okay? That's a fact. Now, what to take into account is: what is your plan for the future? What about risk management? What do you do if we do this? Do you cut positions, whether from a short, medium, or long-term perspective? These are questions you must ask yourselves. You must especially ask yourselves: what will you do rather than: will it break or will it not break? Don't look for that answer. Look especially for what you will concretely do if we start to re-enter or if we start to continue upwards. That will be something more relevant than watching 40,000 videos on YouTube where you won't get your answer in the end because there will be contradictory opinions. For my part, if you want my opinion, for the moment, I have no sign of re-entry, and I would start to ask myself questions if we really close below the value high and if we break this low. We can very well pull back here, you know. We can come back to this level. There's nothing wrong with pulling back to a level. It's even quite common to have breakbacks. We see it at this level. Break, pullback, we re-enter here, we go even lower, and we rebreak to pull back again. It's quite classic to have this kind of phase where, you see here, uh, hop, sideways phase, break, we pull back. Okay, well, it's normal to have retracement phases. What's important is not to re-enter and not to flip support levels into resistance. Here, we've moved back above. Very good, we are in an upward trend. The lows and highs are getting higher. Very good. Now, we must not re-enter. So, for me, I maintain what I say, we have a higher probability of a continuation of the upward trend. Now, yes, I have a strategy. Yes, I will cut some positions or yes, if we start to re-enter, and I will not just endure by saying, "Well, I see a deviation if it happens, it's not the case yet, but I have a deviation like in 2022, and no, I'm doing nothing." No, measures will be taken. I will reduce my exposure, I will cut some positions. That's not where we are for the moment. So, step by step for now. Here is a correction phase. Tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, the weekend, it might be a Saturday or Sunday with low volatility, a bit like here. It will lateralize here. Perhaps we will have a surprise, I don't know, but generally, it's rare to have breakouts on the weekend, unless there are huge announcements, and on Monday or Tuesday, we could have a recovery upwards or downwards. But as I say, what you should do is behave like traders and investors who make their own decisions. Your goal is not to look for what will happen, but to ask yourself if we go there or if we go there, or even if we make a new high, what do you do? What will you simply put in place? This is really, really important.
Now, when I look at the chart, yes, we have a sign of loss of the short-term trend, a bit similar to what we did here. We see it clearly with the loss of the 15-minute channel. The market top structure, we have an MTP here. We also have an MTP here. So this doesn't reverse our medium-term trend. Okay, the 4-hour channel is bullish. The 1-hour remains bullish for now. We are still in higher lows and higher highs. However, it's a fact on the 15-minute timeframe, we have a small bearish trend with lower lows and lower highs. So, so there you go, but it's normal, it's simple in a market. We see here that we have a long bullish trend, not as long as what we experienced at this level, but there was still a trend that lasted from January 13th approximately to the 15th, so about 3 days. Yes, 3 days upwards. And here, we have a loss of our bullish trend to transform it into a bearish trend. These are moments where, to continue the trend, I'm never a fan because we are in phases of uncertainty. Well, it's not in phases of uncertainty, it's especially that I don't have a convergence of all my timeframes. The long-term, the weekly is bearish. The daily weekly is globally bearish because we have a yellow channel that is pointing downwards. The medium-term is globally bullish as we have an exit from the phase upwards. We have a 4-hour that is bullish, a 1-hour that is bullish, and I have a 15-minute that is bearish. So, I have a total contradiction of my timeframes. If I draw here, I have the 15, I have the 1-hour, I have the 4-hour, and I have the 1-day. The 15 is like this. The 1-hour is like this. The 4-hour is like this. And I have the 1-day which is like this. This is the worst, the worst place to trade a trend because we are in a phase of uncertainty here. To really find a more interesting phase to have a convergence of timeframes and do multi-frame analysis and simply look for longs in the direction of a trend. Well, here, I will rather look for longs. Well, you would simply have to move back above the 15-minute timeframe and have a bullish flow. You see, like we have this kind of phase, when we have this kind of phase, I won't say "Ah, I have a bearish daily, I'm not trading." No, because there's no point in taking 40,000 timeframes either. Three timeframes are more than enough. Here, I don't care that the daily is bearish because I can still have a short to medium-term bullish trend and trade the full move. Is it normal, even in a bearish daily, here, even in a bearish trend, I would have phases where I would have retracement phases and on the short term, a bullish phase. However, here, we are a bit in a compression, so I will simply wait to have a better signal to resume trend continuation trades. Trades that I have, as I've shown you recently, when I simply had breakouts or pullback confirmations with a buying reaction in the 15-minute channel or the 1-hour channel. So, for the moment, we are in a waiting phase. Of course, if we start to re-enter, other measures will be taken. And if we start to re-enter and correct strongly, well, then I will look for trades, but in the direction of the trend, but here in the case of a bearish trend. There you go. In any case, my opinion on Bitcoin, the decisive big level is this level not to re-enter, this zone that served as support, which we broke, which then served as resistance. And well, we shouldn't simply go back below it. Otherwise, yes, we could talk about a clearly bearish signal. And then I would agree with those who talk about re-entry. Not because they were right and anticipated it, but because in the end, the market shows us that. But when you anticipate a distribution, it's a bit like flipping a coin. Yes, you have a one in two chance of being right. Perhaps not, because in the end, it breaks. For me, we have a higher chance of an upward continuation, but in any case, I prefer to react to what I see rather than anticipate it. There you go, in any case, my opinion on BTC.
Regarding Ether, we are still in this sideways phase. In this sideways phase, I will be very quick on Ether, there isn't much to say. It's simply a range, we are close to the upper extremity. Well, there's not much to do except look for shorts or lighten up for someone who is positioned. On the lower extremity, someone who has taken positions, whether in spot or swing trading, we have a 20% increase. This is a very good performance to at least have a TP. Don't hesitate to take partial TPs. It's not always "yes, I take a long and I must absolutely make x10, x20." No, take partial TPs, don't hesitate to secure, and you'll be very happy with someone who bought, for example, here, one Ether, two Ethers, anyway, it doesn't matter, the amount doesn't matter. The most important thing is the percentage of your capital. We never talk in amounts, it's useless. Someone who makes +20% is a good operation and will be very happy if we do this. I don't know how to do this, but let's assume we do this, they will be happy to have lightened up. And if we start to break, don't start saying, "Yes, but if I hadn't sold, I would have made more profit," doing calculations, "I could have gone on vacation, I could have bought this." No. Okay, that's how it is. You respected your plan, you respected your strategy. That's good. The most important thing is to respect your plan. And I remind you, we don't judge the quality of our decision by the result, but by whether we would make the same decision again if we were in the same situation. This is a question you must ask yourselves, and you don't say, "My decision was bad because the trade is losing," or "My decision was good because my investment is winning." No, it's "Did I respect my plan? If I am put in the same situation with the same elements, the same parameters, would I make the same decision?" If yes, then it was a good decision.
In any case, on Ether, it's pretty much the same as BTC. If I put moving averages here, hop, we see that we've lost the 15-minute timeframe. A top here within our daily channels. Then we have the 1-hour channel which is slightly lower. I can also put pivot points here to determine, hop, confluences. This is what I like to do in general, to have a confluence of channels and pivot points. Currently, we are exactly at a weekly pivot point around $3270, and we don't have a strong confluence on Ether. After that, the main monthly pivot point is lower, and here we see that we perfectly topped at our monthly pivot point resistance. We had a good confluence between this upper resistance zone, the daily channel, and a monthly pivot point. After that, it's complicated to take shorts on Ether when BTC is breaking like this, it's delicate. However, lightening up at such a level of interest, yes, that's perfectly coherent. Well, in any case, on Ether, we are a bit too high to take longs in my opinion. It would be good to wait for a pullback in the 1-hour timeframe, perhaps, or have a retracement in the middle of the range around $3100. This would be a good zone. However, we must also take into account what BTC is doing because, for sure, if it re-enters, I will be more cautious and I will not take longs personally on Ether.
Now, regarding the positions I have, I still have a trade on ICP. ICP is rather strong, if we look at the day, 0.1%, 1%. Well, we have a BTC at 1% also, not correcting much. "Strong" might be a big word. We can see some BRC and some HYPE that are positive, but it's okay, it's less bad than some. If we start to lose this level and structure this market top, for now, we are just in a range, followed by an upward impulse. So I'm not going to cut too quickly. However, if we start to settle below this level and lose it, I have a 15-minute channel. Yes. Hop, I have my 15-minute channel. If we start to settle below it, market top. Then, I will reduce my risk. I remind you, my stop loss is at break-even here. So, I can't lose anything on this trade anymore. And if we lose this level, well, I will take a 50% TP on this trade, just to secure a part at least. And in the best case, well, in the best case, I have a trade that is still positive and that can potentially compensate for a loss here on Optimism, which hasn't moved at all. That's how it is, I showed you yesterday. It's part of trading. I have an invalidation on a daily close below this low, okay? And well, I will lose -1R here. On this type of trade, I have between 0.5% and 1% of my trading capital. This is my risk management that allows me to see, 0.5% on this type of trade. If I have 8 losing trades in a row, I lose 4% of my trading capital. Which, already, 8 trades is quite rare. It has happened to me, but it's really rare. 4% is not a big loss because when I take large risks of 2, 3, 4R, well, two trades are enough to recover that, sometimes, well, it's rare that I make 4% on a single trade, but well, two or three trades at least to compensate for this type of loss. And you see, just on a partial take profit of ICP, I will almost compensate for this type of loss. This is what's most important: to cut losses quickly and let winners run when they go in our favor, and to have good risk management where you can simply absorb 3, 4, 5, 10 losing trades without your trading capital being totally impacted. So, for the moment, I'm not invalidating, I have no invalidation. It's not because we have three consecutive red candles here. If I put my stop there, it's because I estimate that where my trade is invalidated, if we make a lower low and we go below this level on a daily close, for now, we are pulling back. If we start to go below this level, it's certain that we would be re-entering this inverted shoulder-head. It wouldn't be the best signal, that's for sure. But well, we'll let these trades breathe, and you never know if Bitcoin takes off again. I'm not hoping, I'm not sitting here in front of my screen saying, "Oh, please, it has to take off again, otherwise it's a disaster." No, I took a risk, I assume it. Okay? It's following a strategy that suits me. It happens that I enter like this. It's not all the time that I enter on this type of position because you still need good daily breakouts. The last time on ICP, well, it was on this trade where I took a very good risk of 5R, a bit less because I had partial TPs. If it doesn't work, well, this time it doesn't work. In any case, ICP for the moment is correcting less than the others. It's rather reassuring.
Regarding the S&P 500, we made an ATH as we had seen. Now we are in this consolidation phase. Not a lot of volatility. We are globally in a range. Okay, we can't get a big breakout, and we are accumulating. Now, what's dangerous in this kind of low-volatility trend is that on one hand, yes, we are in a trend, but on the other hand, we leave a lot of lows, a lot of lows that haven't been tested for a long, long time. All these are lows that have not been, that have not been taken, simply. I'm not one of those people who follow SMC, ICT, etc., telling you, "Yes, these lows, it's 100% sure we're going to go for them." No, nothing is sure. Why? Because look, hop. Did the market come and seek these lows here? Absolutely not. Yes, these ones, yes, but these ones, no. So it's not systematic. See the number of lows here that we have, we can go for some, but it's not systematic. See all the lows that have never been sought, it's not systematic. So, I don't like this mentality of saying, "It's 100% sure we're going to go back and get these levels." However, what is sure is that if we start to form a market top, we could potentially have a strong long squeeze like we had here. Why? Because we have a lot of stops below these lows, and therefore, we can have cascading liquidations because positions are closed. Closing a position leads to other closures because it creates selling pressure. In the end, it's a snowball effect, and if there's no counterparty, we can have a significant drop. Okay? This is an important point to know, and that's why it's always difficult to start positioning yourself at high levels, especially when we have low momentum. This is the case here. We have a bullish trend but low momentum. If I put the MACD, we see it well, we are diverging, we have a loss of momentum on the buyers' side. We can continue to rise with bearish divergences. We see it well here. Here we have a bearish divergence. Yet, we continue to rise. As long as we don't have a reversal structure, it's okay. However, if we start to reverse our dynamic and give way to sellers, whether from a momentum perspective or a structural perspective, then it's ugly, and then we could clearly retrace. So, in any case, on the S&P 500, we are still at high levels. It's delicate to enter here. I've always told you, those who want to position themselves for the long term, you take the S&P 500, you take a -20% drop, and it becomes interesting again to position yourself for the long term.
Now, regarding altcoins, I will analyze the altcoins that I have been asked to analyze. I have three, I believe. It's only one person who asked me for these three. So, there you go, don't hesitate, you can give me five at once, I'll note them down. I don't do them all at once, but we move forward slowly but surely. So, SPK, where are we already? A weekly view. Weekly, the chart is much too young, okay? Much too young to do an analysis, and I generally wait at least 1 year, 2 years, even 2 years of chart to really do a good analysis. Why? Because here, weekly, we can't do anything. It becomes interesting, and we can say that we have formed a weekly bottom when we really have a sideways phase with a breakout. Then it's more interesting to do this kind of phase, a W structure, but for that, we can do it here, we can do it lower, even lower, I don't know, but I prefer to let the chart develop before doing a long-term analysis because here, I don't have enough. If I look at the daily, we are trying to form a bottom. Okay, it would be good here to have a larger sideways phase because here I think that yes, we have moved back above the 4-hour, but I would like to have a larger structure because we still have here a big market top and a big downward phase. Generally, when we have such a long market top and such a big downward phase, we don't form a bottom on a small W. Generally, it requires a larger sideways phase proportional to what we had at this level. And then, yes, after that, we can start a retracement. We also have quite a few highs to reach. So we could liquidate quite a few people. And if we start to form a bottom, we can expect a return to 0.382. We have 0.58 at the neckline. I'm not saying we're going to go back that high, okay? Because then we would clearly be in a x3, x4. So it's a bit too difficult to predict these kinds of things. However, what you can look at, what you can do, is to wait for a buying confirmation with a larger structure, to have all the moving averages pointing upwards with strong momentum like we have here, but upwards. This time it was downwards, but the same thing, but upwards. One, you do trend continuation, and two, you can position yourself on a bottom when we have the confirmation of a larger structure. However, of course, if we make a lower low, well, we are rather in a context here. We will look for shorts in the direction of the trend, as during all this phase here, this entire bearish trend.
Next, Baby Doge. Again, a chart that is much too young. We also need to wait for a W structure to validate a bottom. And here, when I look at the daily, well, we are clearly in a trend that is bearish, moving averages pointing downwards, the 4-hour below the daily, we had an excess but we didn't manage to settle above it. And again, we are in a context where I would like to have a sideways phase. I don't want a V-shaped bottom recovery, I want a better structure, better confirmation that simply confirms to me that okay, yes, the bottom is validated. For now, that's not the case. And we see that we have been in a big bearish trend for about almost a year now, since April 2025. There has been no reversal structure. We have 4-hour daily channels that have been bearish for a long time. It's not just a bottom that has formed in 2 or 3 weeks that will really talk about reversing this entire bearish dynamic. So here again, I would like to have a market that lateralizes for another month and then breaks, and then we could talk about retracement, but here the bottom is much too, yes, much too short to really form a real bottom. After that, V-shaped bounces do happen sometimes, but often these bottoms rarely hold for long.
And the last crypto, ATH, we only have bearish charts. Is the person, well, I know it's only one person who sent me these three, is it because you positioned yourself on these three and now you're a bit panicked? Every time you enter a position, you must always ask yourself, "I'm entering a position, but where do I exit?" Whether it's to take your profits or to take a stop loss, it doesn't matter. But here, the real place to exit, to exit, it depends on where you enter at each point, but it's either we have a re-entry at this level, or we break lower. There are several places to invalidate your trade because here we are clearly in a bearish chart. We have validated a big market top. We have moving averages pointing downwards, and this is even the ugliest chart. We haven't even broken the 4-hour channel. We are still in a bearish flow. And I will tell you the same thing I said for the others. Either we have a sideways phase, a breakout of the 4-hour, and then okay, we could have a retracement phase. I'm not even talking about ATH, at least a retracement, we could go back and look for our previous bad range around 0.025, which is still an interesting retracement from there, but that's only if we have a sideways phase. For the moment, the highest probability is that we will be rejected in the 4-hour and have a continuation of the bearish trend and make a lower low. Technically, when I look at this kind of chart, we have a higher probability of reaching this low than this high because we are in a trend that is bearish.
There you go, I've finished everything. Don't hesitate to tell me the altcoins you want me to analyze, to join the Trader Letter by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.