Transcription
All right, Dan, first of all, amazing outfit, but second of all, you got even better thoughts on the market. Uh, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points recently. In 1998, when that happened, tech stocks exploded and pretty much ignited what we now know as the dotcom boom and bust. Uh, do you think that's what's going to happen now? Like tech stocks just go to the moon.
It's a bright green light for tech stocks, not just into your end, but I mean, we believe that next two to three years, the tech bull market continues to play out. Look, this is it's a fourth industrial revolution in terms of AI. Biggest tech theme in the last 40 50 years. The only thing stopping or maybe like the ceiling on tech stocks was Fed. Now with rates cutting, I believe look, this is just a risk on and the winners, it's still going to be big tech. But now the second, third, fourth derivatives, those start to play out. And that's what you're starting to see play out across the market. We continue thinking the AI party. We've talked, you know, it started off at 9:00 p.m. It's now about 10:15 p.m. And that fun hasn't even started yet. And that party goes to 4:00 a.m. Now, look, in that between that, there could be glass in the dance floor. DJ stops playing music. Maybe cops come. At the end of the day, the Bulls and the Bears meet up at 6:00 a.m. Bulls had a lot better night than the Bears.
All right. So, if let's maybe break down the market. There's the Mag Seven, like the big guys. How do you see them playing out? Are they big big winners here? Uh, as well as others.
Look, I think Nvidia, it's a five trillion and ultimately a $6 trillion market cap. I mean, look, there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. And right now, demand to supply for their chip is still 12 to1. And China, look, the people will make out in terms of, you know, a lot of the headline noise in terms of China trying to, you know, maybe avoid big tech in China trying to buy those chips. The reality is they're years ahead of Huawei, years ahead any Chinese player. And then you look at the hyperscalers like our top picks Oracle, Microsoft, you know, when I look at like Alphabet, I look at what's happened with Amazon because the hypers scale, we still only less than 50% of workloads are in the cloud and you only have 3% enterprises that have actually gone down the AI path. We're talking 3 to four trillion being spent over the coming years. Look, our whole part of our AI is AI30. Who's the software names? Palanteer, the messy of AI. We believe that's a trillion dollar market cap next two to three years. Snowflake, MongoDB, and and then it continues across the rest of chips, Broadcom, AMD. I continue to believe Tesla along with the video, the two best physical AI players, especially as autonomous and robotics play out. That's why I've been so bullish on Tesla, never viewed them as an auto company, always a disruptive tech company.
So, when you look at um let's say uh Oracle or some of these hyperscalers, what is the thesis as to why they can continue? We know why they're already winning, but how do you think that it doesn't end for four, five, six more years?
Sure. Well, the thesis for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip, there's an $8 to$10 multiplier across the rest of tech. So, what you're seeing play out now is like, okay, that's spending originally on Nvidia 23 and 24 starting to play out across tech. Oracle has the stack. If you're an Oracle customer and you're moving to AI, you know the I mean I would say like a typical Oracle customer for every dollar that they've spent with Oracle the last decade AI you could potentially not just get back that dollar a $1.50 50. You start to put numbers together. That's why this last quarter it was the jawdropper. But, you know, it's one of the our top picks in terms of the space because we're only early in think about what's happening across the world. UK, look what's happened Middle East in terms of UAE, Saudi, where it's all US big tech. Cuz my whole point is, look, someone myself, you know, 3 million air miles the last 25 years. So many times you know I'll be in Taiwan be in China you land here in the US and you know and you'll be like okay are we ever going to catch him for the first time 30 years US is ahead of China when it comes to tech that is the key AI revolution being led by US big tech that now spreads around the world.
Now when we look at uh this there's also um I'm going to call it like energy infrastructure hardware uh but on the energy side like you actually have the power generation You've got the data centers. What are you guys seeing there that you guys like?
I mean, Aqua has been one of our favorites on the nuclear. GE Reova is another one that we're super bullish on because I think what's going to happen now, the utility, the grids, the energy, that's that's part of the second, third derivative playing out across AI. You need about 6 to eight times more power than you do now. There's more data centers being built today than active data centers. M so that's why when you think about AI the trade is not just tech terms of core big tech it's also playing the energy side it's playing the infrastructure names like you know nemesis core weave as good examples that's why we have 30 names that you know that in my view has really been the way to play it maybe in 2023 2024 whoever I met with institutional retail wherever I'd speak I'd be like look have breakfast lunch dinner watch some Netflix and sports and buying video Now, now just Nvidia and chill. You buy Nvidia and then every time it sells off because of, you know, the haters, the bears coming out of hibernation mode, you buy more. Now, that continues to be the trade. There's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a black leather jacket. His name is Jensen. But now it's spreading to the rest of tech. And that's why I continue to say like this bull market, you talk about Fed Cutting just putting fuel in that sort of engine. And I and I think look in terms of like value and will tech not be the leader. I'd rather be in the left lane of Ferrari owning tech names going 100 miles an hour. You'll hit speed bumps. You'll get a few speeding tickets pulling on your license rather than being value right lane minivan going 45 m an hour with a bumper sticker say my kid was an honor student in third grade. So the point is like that continue to be where I view where I want to be on the left wing.
Is Bergkshire going to capitulate and finally start buying the AI stocks?
Look, it's been and there's no better goat than Buffett, right? I mean, but my view is like obviously much more value centric that's actually like if you look like Apple and a bunch of the other names that they've sold off. Look, I think I could see Burk my view is okay, it might not be maybe some of the core tech, but now as some of these names start to become more in that convergence, the Oracles, look what's happened to Intel. I mean, you could argue now between US government and Nvidia, they've essentially now brought Intel into the AI game. So, I think you're going to start I would be shocked if you don't see, you know, Birkshshire going maybe more down that path and putting some chips, maybe even if it's not just on tangential tech, but on the energy and on the infrastructure.
Now, when uh we see other companies that are AI related, you can look at things like hardware. So, you can look at Tesla, you can look at uh companies that are basically taking the AI and they're applying it. Uh, you know, I always say Tesla's like teaching machines to see. Yeah, that seems like a pretty big deal. How do you look at some of those names?
Well, Tesla's been one of our favorites for a decade, right? I mean, I I believe the autonomous valuation alone is at least a trillion dollars. And I think Tesla, we talk about two trillion as a base, but potentially three trillion in terms of a bull case scenario because look, this is not about necessarily just selling cars. I think where where everyone's always missed Tesla or many you got to see on the other side of this now Musk wartime CEO focus really on what I believe robo taxis they will own the autonomous work I mean I I really think a rounding era is going to be whimo when it's all said and done because of the scale and scope and you know our team saw it in Austin and you're going to continue build out across San Franella eventually here in New York 30 to 35 cities next few years we believe look 20% of automobiles driven will be autonomous Tesla is changing the world there and also then you start think about things like robotics optimist is where Tesla plays a huge role in video because they're physical AI play so when you think about AI a lot of times like I'll meet people on the street and they'll be like oh I tried chachi BT and that I'm like hey that is like breadcrumbs before the appetizer before the actual meal in terms of where we are in what look we're living in a fourth industrial revolution and that's why big tech stronger get stronger.
Do you have other names in terms of uh AI and hardware that you think are interesting?
Yeah, I mean look there there's names like I mean personally I think names like when you look at names like SAP what they're doing I think super interesting I think on the infrastructure side nemesis coreweave have been core names that we've been bullish on then there's even names like you know when I look like inner data some of the small cap names you look at some of the application plays like a sound hound I I think names like palunteer is actually just to start on the software side because I think what you have is really it's emerging where the software use cases are now going to start to explode snowflake MongoDB elastic is good examples now you could take on the other side of that names like Salesforce Adobe cuz the the view is like AI eating their plunge, but I mean it's about the in they have install bases. I would not bet against Beni off. I would not bet against Lisa Sue at AMD. And I think now you're going to start to see this spread in terms of this AI revolution.
So you got this Dan Ies AI ETF. Explain how this thing works.
It's all based on our research. Like our research, we have the 30 names, 30 AI winners, you know, that we we launch in early June. And and to me it was really about institutional retail wherever they are in the globe. So many times they investors are like how do you play AI and again it's not just about Nvidia and Microsoft it's about playing the bucket software so we have bucket software chips consumer names like meta alphabet of course the autonomous play infrastructure energy so 30 names now those names every quarter if there's names that I feel like are starting to play more in terms of AI in cyber security like we just added crowdstrike because I think everything George and Crowd Strike are doing and they're going to be a huge beneficiary of AI then others came off whether it's acquisitions or maybe ones like Adobe where they're not you know right now like they don't have their sea legs on AI so it's a.
But how do you decide you wake up and say hey I like this one I don't like this one or research driven or what?
25 years covering tech right I mean I you know I've lived breathe tech and to me it's like it's talking to engineers it's out there like I said I'm always traveling around the world whether it's in Asia, US or Europe. It's trying to understand like who are the companies that maybe today you don't see it but they're going to inlect over the next 69 12 months. Who's the next Palunteer? Is it going to the consumer side? Is it going to energy side? And that's really the goal of this. It's like it's our research and it's maybe sometimes seeing things that others at the time don't see because look if you just get caught up in valuation one year valuation you missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years and I always say like the bears when they're in their caves they can see AI in the spreadsheets.
Mhm. Now uh what do you think about other disruptive technologies like Bitcoin or anything else?
Yeah, I mean look huge, you know, big huge supporter of Bitcoin crypto. Just was down in DC with Sour and Tom Lee and and a number of other great folks really trying to focus on the Bitcoin reserve and in terms of some of the legislation. Look, I believe this is it's another asset class as well as there's a convergence now that's happening between AI and crypto. So what's so happening when you look at blockchain the use cases for that are being massively underestimated. So as a software tech analyst you know I view it from two ways. One there's there's Bitcoin in terms of just the you know the actual to and just the value but then there's the use cases that are starting to play out across tech. And I think that's why this is a new age for crypto. It's a new age for AI and also there's a convergence like you know in terms of my my latest uh venture that I've done with ACO because I think there's an intersection right now of AI and crypto.
Explain Aco for those that don't know.
Yeah. So AO just became chairman you know last week and ACO like our whole goal it's a treasury company focus on worldcoin. Um I'm a believer that worldcoin when you think about it everything that Sam Alman Alex have done that is based on the orbit scanning technology the orbs that you've probably seen it's iris scanning that is going to be what I believe the de facto the single sign on for the future of AI and to me crazy well but to me it's actually less of a crypto play the reason I'm I'm not doing this just for a DAC to take a stock from X to to me I'm doing because I believe this is the intersection of AI and crypto. This will be a de facto authentication standard and it's crazy in terms of where we are today maybe the view but the reality is in the future with bots robots human proof is going to become more and more important look 16 million have already signed up for this I mean we believe it's going to 100 million in the next year and that's why like I'm so excited to be doing this you know bit mine or Tomley have been investors among you know a whole host of great investors because They see the same vision that I do where it's the future of AI. I believe the future of AI. You can't get there without what I believe is true human proof authentication.
Now, uh 16 million people, they scan their eyeballs, right? Uh what do they get in exchange for doing?
Yeah. So, you get a coin. You So, you have a world app, you actually get the world coin. And if you look at like how that's playing out, you know, that's something where we believe this is really going to create a network. I mean, it's really the early days of PayPal how it started. You have 16 million. We believe it goes to 100 million the next year. Now, in Asia, second biggest advertiser in Japan. How do you get your actual licenses in Malaysia? What they're doing in Thailand, they're lining up for this. This only got launched in the US. If you think about a few months ago, so as the orbs expand across cities and the use cases expand, how do advertisers know a human if or a bot? How do from a dating perspective if it's this you how do you know on social media platforms what's a bot this is now the future especially when you think about autonomous and where the world's heading I think Sam like look they built it but I'm a core believer this is Palunteer 2022 it's Nvidia when Jensen was just maybe talking about AI and all the haters were saying just focus on gaming it was Tesla when Musk was talking about EVs and the concept of and everyone's like you're a car company you're never going to be and that's why for someone like myself that's been there from the iPhone launch with Steve Jobs to Tesla to Palanteer to Nvidia my perspective is different right because I've been through it as an analyst and that's why I'm so excited about doing this.
Now uh you keep mentioning robots uh humanoid robots is a huge thing obviously Tesla is probably the only public company that's got a robot that you can get some exposure to do you I think that all the private companies eventually public in the next like 12 months.
Look at Figure AI. I mean, they just raised a huge round, you know, and they've done some amazing things, you know. I I've seen that their um you know, at their facility what they've some of the humanoid stuff they're doing because the reality is like we're not talking 10 years away. We're talking 18 months, two year where this humanoid robot Tesla is the leader of it. I think Tesla is the best public play from an optimist perspective.
But guess who's supplying all the chips?
Nvidia.
So it speaks to my view like on Nvidia and just overall investors underestimate because they're looking at it here. You got to see where it's heading over the coming years. And that's why I think robotics autonomous is truly the holy grail when it comes to AI.
Mhm. And then are there any other themes that you're seeing right now that are outside of AI but still in kind of tech sector that uh that you think is big?
To me it's cyber security. I think cyber security it like everything we're talking about here needs to be protected and when you look at what's happening especially on a lot of these use cases that's where names like crowd strike powto zscaler you know there's a lot of traditional legacy names like you know checkpoint for others cyber security to me is a huge theme that we're focused on then another theme that we're hugely focused on is just on the consumer side meta and Alphabet have been two of our favorite names. Alphabet really being a table pounder, you know, and now you're starting to see sentiment improve so much because of the DOJ settlement, but I think that's something where Alphabet, I view that AI for Google, it's not the massive headwind. actually creates a tailwind that I think ultimately look when it comes to Apple they're right now on the outside looking in when it comes to AI but not for long because that's another one I think they're on the cusp of monetizing install base and that continues to be the theme.
What about Facebook's uh glasses that they just announced. You think those are good?
Look, I think that's one where like call it a moonshot project where I mean like look hardware is not their core competency, right? I mean, where Zach is the wartime CEO and really becomes the legend what he's done. It's it's ultimately it's on the software, it's on building out the ecosystem, hardware, I think you'll have some success here and there. It's not about necessarily about moving the needles, but I think that's where they're trying to stay one step ahead of where eventually Apple's going to go. Because where I see it a few years from now, like your phone will have glasses. There'll be sunglasses where you'll be able to see your emails, see your apps. You you'll be able to actually with your eyes ultimately move, you know, and ultimately respond to things.
But that's the future. And I think right now what you're seeing in tech, it's an arms race across the board from Nvidia to Meta to, you know, to Alphabet to everyone else. That's why you have 350 billion that's being spent just by big tech alone. No, every time that people talk about, oh, do bubble 90, I mean, I was an analyst back in the late '90s and you cannot compare because big tech is ultimately they're the core spenders here.
And you're talking about companies have a trillion dollars in the balance sheet, spend 350 billion a year. But that's just started before the sovereigns and the rest of enterprises now start to embrace this. And then when you look at um the retail movement, you've mentioned Palunteer, Tesla, many of these names, the retail audience has been early if not before the institutional world, right?
I'd say before I I mean, if you think about names like Palunteer, the amount of hate mail from institutions, no respect, Karp, they hate it at 12, despise it at 50, yelling from the mountain tops at 75, buildings at 100, and so on, right? Because I always say institutional wearing the Peter Malar, it's hard in the spreadsheets when they're on the 15th floor in New York City office building to get bullish. A lot of times what's happened is on the retail side that have done the work that have seen the sort of what I believe may be sometimes the future. That's why names like Tesla, Palunteer, parts of Nvidia. I do think retail as millions of new retail investors have come in. they don't get as shaken and a lot of that just by nature of institutional relative to some of the sell-offs like if you think like April and May like April liberation day and everything that happened there retail stood strong it was really institutional that sold off massively in those first few weeks of April and I think look but it's starting to change the psychology right I think institutional now even on valuation you're starting to now see some of those changes cuz when you're in the fourth industrial revolution. You can't just find it on the spreadsheet, but you have to see it around the globe. That's why we spend so much time traveling.
Have you been paying attention to the open door uh stock?
Yeah. And Eric and I am a good friend with Eric Jackson. Yeah.
Yeah. So, what do you think is happening there?
I think that's like it's another example, right? Like in other words, like like Eric's like he's seen he's always been a core visionary in the beginning and obviously they've had imagine changes. you're starting to see retail better understanding what's going on there. What's the value of the platform? Could the stock go much higher? Of course it can. And I think it's one, but you need an advocate, right? Like that's why what he's done on social media, it's no different than like what Sour did with what Sour did with strategy and micro strategy. I've known Mike going back to late 90s like what did like when you think about like Ethereum, what Tom Lee's done. It's the same thing. Like I think what's starting to happen is is that you're now seeing investors mindsets opening up to some of the opportunities. And I view that as a great thing. This is not like a lot of times people like GameStop and some of the we're talking now about real investments. We're talking about now about trillions being spent trying to identify who the winners are. And look, that's what I spend all my time doing, trying to navigate.
What is your research process? Like you you have all these great uh conclusions but what is the process to get there?
Look, I have a strong ecosystem, right? In other words, like just by doing this for so long, like you know, I've been able to really build like whether it's engineers, private companies, you know, understanding like what are the products that are, what are some of the biggest trends, always meeting with companies, meeting with investors around the globe. But the biggest thing that I do, it's really trying to sometimes tune out the noise. It's like I do my own work. I do my survey work. And sometimes maybe the stock is not reacting the right way, but I don't I'm not calling stocks for a day or for a week. I'm calling like where the stock's going over the next year, over the next 18 months. I think investors that have followed me, they understand like I'm not someone that just like, you know, jumps out of a story when things go bad. To some extent, my best calls over the decades have been when stocks are down 30%. When a quarter doesn't go right, when sentiment changes, and I think that's really how I've defined my thesises. I feel very good about all the work that we do, which gives me so much comfort in making our calls. And I think that's how like we've built the reputation, right?
What is the best call you think you've ever made?
Look, I think I mean but again it's like which which child you love better but um look I think the Tesla call you know just in seeing the opportunity with Musk early on in terms of where that was going obviously that that really that helped put me on the map, you know, recognizing iPhone with jobs and how big that was going to be and everything that they were doing on services and then I'd have to say like, you know, Palunteer and Nvidia right of recent recognizing the early AI story with Nvidia and late 2022, early 23 and then Palanteer recognizing like look this is a teenager that's going it's living above 100 and eventually 200 but at the time you look at like especially Palunteer Tesla like you think about those those two names those are some of the most like hated emotional bull bear stories you've ever seen so you definitely need thick skin when you're going through some of those dark times But I love it.
Who cares what the haters say?
No, but that's Look, haters hate. I always say haters hate. But that creates the opportunity if you're able to navigate. And that's why we've done our whole career in TAC. And that's even why like with AO and why I wanted to join as chairman because I look I believe like I've said I believe like the the tote world that is something where is massively undervalued. It's massively undervalued in terms of the network, but I believe it's truly like it's the intersection of AI and crypto.
Well, you also get a target on your back if you're right and you're fashionable. So, you know, those two things that that don't make other people very happy.
Exactly. And that's the Exactly. And that started, you know, a long time ago in the fashion stuff. And I think a lot of times like dressing the way I do it actually is very similar to like the way I call stocks, right? It's a different style, beat of a different drum, but that's always how I've done it. And it's it's something like from my process that's how it's worked.
Yeah. They're just jealous that they couldn't pull it off.
Look, and part of it is that like I've also I've never viewed it like personally haters. My whole goal is like I love turning haters into supporters. I because my whole goal is to make money for people. Like at the end of the day, like that's what I do. So when I so many times like when people bump into me in airports or whatever emails or whatever it may be or you know I run into them I love when people like hey lab people like market this that I bought Tesla I bought invid I and now I paid off my house that no but like that that is like why I do this job it's it's that satisfaction that I get playing a role in helping people I mean I remember Like I was like in uh in Europe and I met some guy from Africa and he's like I just want to say like because of you I actually was able to pay for college here in Europe because I bought Tesla. So that shows the real impact that you make and that's that's what makes me smile.
I love it. I love it. And and you're optimist.
Look bottom line is you live one life. Yeah. And bottom line is like I keep like this is like you keep it all in perspective and we're living in a phenomenal time in terms of this fourth industrial revolution. Guess what? Where US is ahead of China and that's a great place to be right now especially if you're investing in US tech.
I love it. Where where can we set people to find you on the internet?
So uh on X dives tech. I'm on LinkedIn and again I love heaters. I'm not a blocker. So so so join any com any comments. Good comment.
All right. What about Wedbush?
Yeah. And then uh you know, Wedbush, you you could reach out to me. Uh my email, it's on LinkedIn and uh you know, and that's why I think everyone understands, you know, my career at Webbush, my career on Walsh, the last 25 years. It's transparent. Like what you what you hear me say here, TV, what I write in notes is the same thing that I'm talking about in the street or dinner. And I think that's how people have grown to like respect and follow me.
I love it. Well, I respect I follow you. I think you're doing a great job. Seriously, keep doing it.
Thank you so much.