Transcription
Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000. We are losing the support of $107,000, but we have reached interesting objectives. We will take stock of this today. We will also talk about ETFs. I will also talk about stablecoin printing. There is some quite interesting news on this. We will obviously take stock of Ethereum, which also dipped around $3,000 just before starting. I remind you that our algo service is still available. The LIM algorithms here which are engaging precisely on this movement. Once again, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Very strong performance for the algorithms last week. We also provided you with a quarterly recap of the SPT algorithms, of the different algorithms. Here, for example, the SPT algos which, in the 2nd quarter, in the 3rd quarter, made +14R and in the 2nd quarter, made +19. Once again, past performance is not indicative of future performance. To access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this page. You must register on Bitgate via our partner link to access it. If you don't go through this link, it won't work. Currently, Bitgate offers you 10% cashback on your deposit. So that means if you make a deposit of $1,000, for example, you get a $100 bonus. You just have to click here on join. You create your account and then to access the algos, mentorship, and VIP Alcoin for free, you just have to click on this second link. It's a short video that explains absolutely everything in 10 minutes. You will have free access to the Algos, free mentorship as well, and also to the VIP Alcoin in the VIP crypto. This is where I will share the best opportunities on Altcoins from my point of view.
So, to come back to Bitcoin, well, for the moment, if we have the close of our weekly candle like this, we can consider that the support of $107,000 would be broken with the formation of a breaker block which would mark the beginning of a bearish dynamic. This does not mean that we are entering a bear market and that the market will fall for 4 years. It means that from a weekly dynamic perspective, we would be in a bearish movement. And it does not mean that the price will only go down in a straight line. Well, it's possible, but it simply means that bounces will unfortunately be lower highs to go a bit lower. The idea is to say that the dynamic and in fact, this is how you have to break down the market. Look at the market in different time units. In daily, the market is bearish. We've already talked about it. We had talked about this movement which was very suspicious at the beginning of the quarter, that we had recovered the stops from the previous quarter without having taken any stops here, it was very suspicious, so that's why we had huge doubts about a potential top here and a liquidity grab of these lows. Well, that was done with the crash. Again, I said it at the time, I had no idea it would go so fast and trigger a crash. It's unpredictable, but there were high probabilities in my opinion of at least recovering the stops from these lows. Then, since this movement, we have been in a bearish dynamic, and that was confirmed when the market came to take the stops. I told you that my main bias was a repricing of this fair value gap zone to continue bearishly, because if we were truly bullish, we would have first taken the stops to the south before going north. But the market first purged the stops to the north, which means the direction is bearish, and therefore this movement here is still bearish in daily. Then, when we look at weekly, the movement is still bearish as well. Or rather, it is becoming bearish. This dynamic is becoming bearish on weekly, but on monthly, it is still bullish. That is to say, roughly speaking, when we look at the monthly dynamic, Bitcoin is still bullish. So it depends on the time unit in which you look at it. For example, Bitcoin, I can look at it annually, and since its creation, it has been bullish. For example, bear market opportunities, as we say, are often annual fair value gaps. So, in our 2022 bear market, it was between $27,000 and $10,000. We can see that we bottomed in this fair gap. We went higher. Theoretically, if we were entering a bear market, 2026 would offer an opportunity in the annual fair gap to continue going higher. Now, what interests us is the monthly dynamic. Okay? The monthly dynamic is still bullish, meaning that Bitcoin's objective will be to make a higher low or an equal low to then make a new high. That's the objective on monthly, unless we break $74,000, meaning the market breaks this level. Yes, the monthly dynamic will reverse as it did here in 2021, which plunged us into a bear market. So, there are no conditions for a bear market at the moment. I'm not saying you have to wait for Bitcoin to break $74,000. I've talked about hedging many times. I've made tutorials on how to be on Bitgate. I myself said that I was hedging on BTC on these highs and especially on these repricings. Uh, and there were reasons to do so. Okay. But to immediately talk about a bear market for Bitcoin is much too early. Perhaps we are entering a bear market. I'm not saying the opposite, I'm just saying it's much too early to affirm it. Altcoins, I've been talking about them for a very long time, altcoins are still in a bear market against Bitcoin. And I think it will take time before we get out of this bear market for Altcoins relative to Bitcoin, precisely until monetary policy changes. And conveniently, since December 1st, the Fed will end its QT. This doesn't mean we're going to the moon. I'm preparing a video for you on liquidity, how and yes, how there is an impact on the crypto market regarding Fed liquidity, market liquidity. There is always a latency period before it can react, and that could allow us to time when we might find attractiveness around the altcoin market again. It's a video I'm preparing for you, probably this week or next week, but for now, we'll have to be patient on the altcoin side. This doesn't mean there won't be any bounces, there won't be any opportunities, there won't be any assets that manage to perform. We've seen assets perform very well, hyperliquid, BNB, and so on. There will perhaps be others, but the vast majority of the altcoin market currently maintains a bearish dynamic, unlike Bitcoin on monthly. Look at the difference between Bitcoin here on monthly and an AVAX. I'm taking AVAX, I could take any cryptocurrency because I find AVAX represents the price dynamic quite well. AVAX is indeed in a bearish dynamic here. That's the difference. Bitcoin is bullish on monthly, altcoins are bearish on monthly. That's the difference between altcoins and Bitcoin. Except that for Bitcoin, we can't yet say "Yes, it's definitely the bear market, etc." The price can very well do what it did on every correction, which is to have a bearish dynamic like here on weekly. You can see that we are breaking, sorry, the previous low, that we have a retracement, but it's a retracement of the previous leg. On monthly, the price remains bullish, allowing us to make a new high. This is what could happen. That is to say, Bitcoin could do what it always does, come to fill its last fair value gaps and then try to make a new high. This would confirm that we are indeed in a bear market, and again, only the price will tell us. For example, if Bitcoin comes to fill its previous fair value gaps as it always does. We've been talking for a long time about this zone potentially between $92,000 and $86,000. I don't know if we'll get there. Again, just like Bitcoin, at each cycle, it retraces its first stop. I'll show you here. We tested 382, new high. 382, new high. Here, 382 wasn't broken, new high. We tested 382, new high. We tested 382, new high. 382 currently, conveniently, is perfectly within this FVG zone around $84,000. It's a very good zone that we could work and then make a new high. However, if Bitcoin reaches this zone and then makes a lower high and then breaks like this. Yes, that would be the first time in this cycle. I don't like to say cycle, but it would be the first time since Bitcoin's bottom in October 2022 that Bitcoin, after testing the first stop, doesn't make a higher high, meaning a new ATH, but makes a lower high. And at that point, yes, it would confirm that what we were doing is no longer working and that the monthly dynamic is probably no longer there. And then, yes, it would confirm that we are indeed in a bear market perspective and that we could have deeper retracements. Generally, when 382 is broken, we talk about 0.5, which would be around $70,000, or the reload zone that is reached in every bear market. Are we in a bear market? No. If we enter a bear market, it would become an objective here between $57,000 and $40,000. This would be a zone where theoretically we could go. Does that mean we will go there? For now, no. And so, what zone do we focus on? So, we have an interesting zone that was reached this week. So, we can potentially expect bounces. I say potentially a bounce zone. Why? Because we have hunted the lowest point of October. All those who traded this range for weeks, all their stops were triggered. And you can even look at order flow tools that we triggered a lot of liquidations here. Uh, over a hundred million just on Bitcoin, probably just yesterday. Now, what we see at the level of open interest is that it's not falling or very little, and this is often not a sign of a bottom. Okay? Often, at a bottom, there is a big drop in open interest because, in fact, there is a sell flow. We see that. How do we know there are more sellers than buyers? We can look at the Coinbase premium on Coinbase, which is negative. What does that mean? It means there is a very strong selling pressure on the spot market. So, if we look at ETFs, normally we are supposed to have outflows of -566 million. There are sellers here, that's why the price is falling. We are not trying to hunt for liquidation absolutely from Intel. No. Yes, the market will hunt for liquidations and stops on derivatives, but the market is falling because there are more sellers. Because we see it with ETFs, a lot is being sold, because we see it with the Coinbase premium, which is indeed negative and intensifying. This means that selling pressure is accelerating. Also, we can look at stablecoin printing, where yesterday we burned a lot of stablecoins, which means people are permanently leaving the market. That is to say, they sold their cryptocurrencies, transferred their money to fiat, and sent it back to their bank accounts. So, we know that people are leaving the market right now. And so, often, this is a potential precursor to bounces. But it doesn't mean we're going to the moon. Capitulations can take time to form. We can see, for example, that it might require several weeks of money leaving, people permanently leaving the market. It's only been a few days so far. But what I mean is that here we have signs of a potential bounce. This doesn't mean it will necessarily bounce, because there is still quite significant selling pressure. Okay. And so, the market is not just trying to hunt for liquidations at all costs. No, there are just sellers taking their profits, selling, perhaps being stopped out of positions, which creates selling pressure. Now, there is often an excess, especially on Bitcoin, on derivatives, which is expressed precisely by significant drops in open interest. And here, we don't see these drops in open interest. Well, we see a little bit on hyperliquid. I think there are big players here who are very likely being liquidated. But in any case, on Binance, for example, we don't see these drops in open interest. And often even on Bybit, we don't see it much. And often at a bottom, you have a very strong stress event that liquidates many people, and in fact, everyone gets stopped out, buyers are taken out, big sellers take profits, and suddenly there is a big drop in open interest. This is often how a temporary bottom is marked. I'm not saying a definitive bottom, but at least a bottom that triggers more significant retracements. So, it's still too early to say yes, we've definitely hit the bottom here to form our lower high or try to go up again. For now, the dynamic is still bearish. I like to base myself on the last order blocks. So, the last order block, for me, is here in daily. So, theoretically, what the market could do at some point, this is really what Bitcoin is afraid of, is to hunt this order block here and then, if it's still bearish, unfortunately, go back down. So, this could be a bounce zone. If the market doesn't manage to bounce here, it will go to the next zone, which is our monthly fair value zone. You see, we've almost reached this zone. This leads me to think that we will go there because when the market stops before a major objective, very often it ends up reaching it. And it's really here, in my opinion, that we could mark a more significant bounce. When I talk about a bounce, again, you have to understand that it could be a retest of the $107,000 support of our weekly breaker that is forming. That is to say, if this week the market breaks this zone, there will be a weekly breaker. And in fact, for example, what the price could do is trigger the monthly fair value gap, form a bounce within the breaker, and then go purge the first stop as it almost always does, and come to fill this fair value gap zone that is waiting to be filled. When we look at the CME, that's what the CME is telling us. There is always a graphical difference between the CME and the perpetual market. Often on the CME, the monthly fair value gap objective has already been reached. You see, we are already in it here. I'll draw it for you. For those who haven't done the mentorship, I invite you to do it. It's free. Again, it will train you on price reading from A to Z. All the concepts I explain here, I've explained them in the mentorship. Here, we see that we are defending this monthly fair value gap zone, and we can see that if, in fact, when I look at the chart like this on the CME, well, I tell myself that the CME only wants one thing, and that's to fill this zone. So, we are almost there, so this leads me to think that there isn't necessarily a bottom here, but that it could be a bounce zone, and that if we don't manage to bounce right away here, we will go for a little trip into our fair value gap to form, in my opinion, a bounce and a retest of the breaker block that we can note here. And here, there's a high chance, unfortunately, of being rejected if it's retested, because the purpose of a breaker is not necessarily to be tested, but when it is, to push the price back. Not necessarily to make a new low, but it could push the price back. And for me, the zone with the highest probability of marking a bottom on this bearish leg is more this fair value gap zone, or the first stop of the entire movement. And so, here on the CME, we can see that it perfectly corresponds to filling the entire FVG. So, in my opinion, this FVG has a chance to be filled, and therefore, when we put the puzzle pieces together, we see the outflows on ETFs, we see the index market falling, and so on, it's accentuating Bitcoin's fall here.
Now, what's interesting is that on the index side, they are all talking about a bear market, whereas I find that the zone here is excellent for potentially, finally, marking a higher low and trying to break out to go higher. After, we'll have to see if the market will do that or not, but it seems to me to be a bounce zone or not far from it on the index side. If we start to go back below our breaker, I will start asking questions on the index side, and then perhaps expect a cleanup of the last lows. If we do that, we should expect a knife on Bitcoin, probably. When I say a knife, well, it's Bitcoin coming to target, for example, its weekly fair value gap zone. So, it's too early to talk about a bottom here. Again, you have to understand that there are weekly patterns that are quite dangerous. Now, you have to understand that the market is falling quite sharply, that there are bounces at some point here, as we are having. The question is, is this bounce already over? Well, that's difficult to answer. Now, if it bounces, what would be the zones? Well, it could, for example, be to retest this bearish impulse to then perhaps purge our monthly fair value gap and perhaps take care of our weekly fair value gaps. Now, is it a good idea to short here? You're arriving late. We short when it's green at the highs. We don't short at the lows, especially not at monthly lows. This doesn't mean you shouldn't short here and that the price won't fall. It just means you've missed a good part of the train and there are already many people who have shorted before you who have their liquidations and stops a bit higher. If you come to short here, there's a high chance you'll get stopped out or liquidated. Uh, is this the opportunity of the century to buy? Maybe. After, I think personally the price will still reach this lower objective here. Should you stop yourself from buying? Because yes, we can go there. Again, it depends on your plans and what you see on the price. What I see on the price here is consolidation. There is an hourly order block that has formed. We risk working this zone a bit, or even breaking a bit lower to trigger the stops and then, in my opinion, have a more significant bounce if we are to trigger the $98,100.
Regarding ETH, here on Ethereum, it has reached an important level as well. It has reached the first stop of its entire bullish movement. That is to say, here I've taken the low of 2022, I've taken the high of 2025 which had hunted the ATH of 2021, and we can see that we are perfectly on the first stop. In my opinion, this is a zone we will work. This is the purpose of the first stop. It's often a level that is worked. We talked about this stop zone, we talked about the monthly fair value gap. Well, conveniently, we are right in the middle of this monthly fair value gap. Here, I've noted CME gap. There might be a CME gap lingering. In fact, let's recheck that. Uh, maybe it's a bit old. Yes, there are gaps here on the CME. Well, we can expect it to be filled eventually. So, similarly, perhaps we can say that we haven't necessarily bottomed here on Ethereum. You see, there's still a gap a bit lower. These are zones that, in my opinion, have probabilities of being worked because the dynamic is currently bearish on Ethereum, whether we like it or not, in daily, in weekly, in monthly. We cannot say, however, that this dynamic is bearish on monthly. Therefore, we can expect Ethereum to form a higher low than this low. Okay? So, it doesn't mean we'll form it here. We can very well form it here in the reload zone if we break the first stop. But it means that theoretically, there's a chance we won't go back below this low of $1,300. So, that's already good to know. Now, regarding the retesting zones, well, we see that we have almost filled our last weekly fair value gap, and that Ethereum is potentially in a bounce zone. I say potential bounce because to go back up, we would need to reverse this dynamic. And so, here in daily, for example, a good signal would be the break of the last lower high. I'm not saying you have to wait for the break of the lower high to position yourself, but from a technical point of view, that's what you would need to see. Or, for example, something like this, the break of one of the lower highs, or for example, forming a higher low, a higher high, a sort of W bottom, for example. We are at a good bounce level, meaning that all those who had their stops below these lows have been hunted. We have filled almost all the FVGs, even in daily, we see that we have filled up to the last FVG at $3,082. What you need to understand is that if Ethereum doesn't manage to bottom here, its next working zone is more from $2,900 and approximately up to $2,600. Now, I'll tell you honestly, the most important level on Ethereum is the first stop. It's the first stop broken, so the 38.2% retracement, there will be a high probability of reaching the reload zone. So, this would be between $2,400 and $1,700, as the name suggests. This is the reload zone. This is where professionals position themselves. You take this low point, you take this high point. Here, professionals bought back. This is where we bottomed. Reload zone. These are really the best zones to position yourself for the long term. You take this bear market, reload zone. This is where the big players reaccumulate. This doesn't mean the market will go there. It just means that if we go there, don't say "Oh my god, Ethereum is dead or anything, far from it." You should say that it's an opportunity to prepare for the next upward movement. And basically, those who bought here and will sell there, if we go there, well, they will regret it because this is where professionals buy back. Now, I repeat, this doesn't mean we will go there. Already here, we are watching how Bitcoin will work its $98,000 zone and how Ethereum will work its first stop zone. Now, if Bitcoin wants to fill its fair value gap zones at prices between, I'd say $84,000 to $92,000, yes, it will create bearish selling pressure on Bitcoin, which can also create bearish pressure on Ethereum. And at that point, we should expect Ethereum to also fill its fair value gaps and approach the 618. So, I would say between $2,600 and $2,400 if I had to give a range. Again, I repeat, this doesn't necessarily mean we will reach these levels. What we will observe in the coming days is how Ethereum reacts here. This is a very good zone to potentially, and I say potentially, form a bottom. This doesn't mean we will bottom here, but it could be. Now, we'll have to see the reaction of Bitcoin, of Ethereum. For now, we see that there are no signs of an upward recovery. What we have are these two order blocks that have formed, which, moreover, were maintained for the first time thanks to this fair value gap zone. And this is what we see, so basically we have a support that is trying to build up. Now, we have to see how this support will be worked. Will it be broken? We can deviate. But if we start to have deviations, reintegrations, then we could say that there is a sort of absorption of buyers, that sellers are being absorbed, and that we could trigger a retracement. So, this is what we will have to observe. So, to summarize, it's too early to talk about a bottom, interesting zones, many people who have been cleaned out, but still selling pressure that can potentially bring us to lower objectives if sellers continue to control this market, and especially if the US indices continue to fall. The good news is that the US indices are in an excellent zone to bounce. Now, it's true that if we start to lose, to be honest, our weekly fair value gap zone, so if we start, for example, on the Nasdaq, to settle below 25,180 points, then we could expect deeper retracements, and if that happens, it will impact the crypto market. But here, in any case, on the indices, we are really in a good zone to start finding a bottom and working this bottom. Now, we have to see if the indices will manage to bottom here. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you.