Transcription
Oh yes, we are back with your favorite series with one of your favorite people. This is Ron Stewart, a friend of the channel, a friend of the show. Ron, you sent me about 16 names and I got to pick the five of that 16 that you can't stop drafting this summer. I know you're going to cover the other 11 on your channel a bit later on. So, this list is a really exciting group and names that we haven't gotten to talk about enough this summer so far.
Well, I figured I I know how this goes. We all have guys that we've talked about a bunch. I don't want to come on here with the five guys you guys have been talking about. And it's early. Like I've drafted I've drafted 70 teams. So you'll even see uh Well, it's actually funny. It it we're now in a space where in June that's not even crazy to say, you know? Yeah. Like years ago it would be like I mean this is insane. But you also have I have like 50 slow drafts going. So, there there's like a section of players that are like I haven't drafted a ton of them, but I keep clicking them in slow drafts and I know in like a week it's going to they're going to double in exposure. Uh, you know, as we do research, as we start updating the rankings, it becomes clear which guys I like.
Love that. Okay, let's dive right into it. We're going to go in ADP order here. And the first name is a rookie. Imagine that with you, Ron. Uh, this is running back Jeremiah Love of the Arizona Cardinals. Right now, the 12th pick of the second round, running back 13. Why is he one of the names you can't stop drafting this summer?
It's crazy because in the pre-draft stuff, I wasn't all that interested, right? We've done this a bit now with Bejon. We've done this with Genty last year. You take him in round one, they disappoint everybody. And now we're in a really weird spot. I I like that you included the ADP here because really what happens for me is I take one of these Jamar Chase Pukuna JSM and then Dererick Henry all of those running backs ahead of him are gone and you sit here in a spot of like sure it feels good to take Bowowers or Pickkins or Nico and all of a sudden you find yourself without a running back through three rounds. So I've been warming up to the idea of you just take Love One of those receivers likely makes it back. If not, you can still get McBride Bowers. You can start something like Jamar Chase, Jeremiah Love, Trey McBride on a lot of drafts. And it's something I've been warming up to where in the year it almost feels like this is the year of the running back where all roads have. I mean, it it's felt like that the last two years really, but running backs are as expensive as ever, which they haven't really been on underdog. And we're getting a I don't know, we overuse generational, but you get what I'm saying. a third overall pick in an era where before the Bejon class I had guys telling me update your model running backs aren't going to go in round one anymore and now all of a sudden we get a third overall pick in the NFL draft and he's just going in a spot where you have to click him because even if he has the Bejon rookie year even if he has the Jensy rookie year he's not sinking your team but he does have a massive amount of upside and I want to talk about the Cardinals like obviously if he went to the commanders or a better spot he'd be a on two turn pick like that is kind of the elephant in the room. But there's plenty of running backs going ahead of him whether it's Devon Achan uh Bejan Genty guys who are in I would say bottom third projected offenses like Jeremiah Love. But the one thing I wanted to kind of highlight is that the offensive line for Genty like yes he was on a bad offense last year but his offensive line was so brutal. This is a stat from Jacob Gibbs on Twitter. Among 115 running backs with 250 plus rushes in a season. This is from since 2012. There's been 115 running backs that have 250 or more rushes. He ranked 115th in yards before contact per rush. I assume you guys could speak on a little bit better. I'm not all the way in the weeds with offensive line, but the Cardinals are ranked like 15th best by ESPN. They're in the top 20 for like FTN, four for four. It's a decent offensive line, right? They get Paris Johnson, they draft Chase Bantis, you have Isaac Somalu. It's at least going to be a functional offensive line. So, it's not going to be like a historic 6 yards before contact. And we know Jeremiah Love can take off with a long home run uh ability. On top of that, he has the reception upside. So, while the touchdowns might not be there uh in the context of this offense, I still do think that there's going to be volume and running lanes for him to get through.
Yeah, even Genty last year was the RB16 when everything went uh completely south. I don't think that this situation's quite as bad as that. And I think that Jeremiah Love was the slightly better prospect over Genty. So, I have him as a like fringe uh top 12 running back. He's kind of I'm drafting him at the turn. So, I don't really have a strong stance with him. I think that the the maybe the little elephant in the room would just be some of the goal line touches might end up going to Algier. Um and if they were going to knock anything about Jeremiah Love would be some of some of those touches didn't go exactly right. But I think if you just like zoom all the way out, he was a 100th percentile prospect in my model, everybody's model. uh next to Saquon Z, CMC, Reggie Bush, Melvin Gordon, Genty, Darren McFaten, Bejian Gurley, Adrien Peterson, Jonathan Taylor. Those guys as rookies average 14 and a half fantasy points in half PPR. That would have been about the RB12s. Like the baseline historically is these guys finish right where he's kind of being drafted. I'm worried about the Cardinals quarterback situation when we get to uh November and dece December. That's my big concern with the Cardinals. It's not necessarily the offensive line. It's not about the touch split between Algeria and Love. It'll probably go overwhelming to Love. I just think this team in December, they'll be projected for 13 points per game, you know, like I think it could get that bad. Uh because I just don't think that Brassette's going to last the whole season.
I love that we're having this Jeremiah Love conversation, though, because you know, during the draft process, he was kind of boring to discuss because he was so far ahead of any other running back prospect that there wasn't a lot to talk about. But now it's almost flipped where he's going after, you know, 12 running backs and we really need to nail down how good the talent is versus the situation. I know a lot of people like you just mentioned, Ron, are bringing up the Bejian Robinson rookie season where it was kind of hot and cold and kind of limited by touches. This is going to hit close to home run, but I I'm going to look at what Mike Lor did with Bree Hall during his rookie year in 2022. And albeit that was a shortened year because of an injury, but in the games that he played, Bree Hall was the running back seven in points per game. Uh, and that was even with a slow start of 12, eight, and 14 touches in the opening three contests. And we all remember this vividly, right? That was the Pony personnel stuff. Michael Carter was the other running back. So, you know, it's Michael Carter versus now Tyler Algier and James Connor, which is a bit different, but Bree Bree was really unleashed in week four, you know, and ever since then, Michael Thor just knew about the hot hand, knew who gave him the best chance of winning, and that was a three to four game stretch where the Jets won all those games. That might have been the last games they've ever won. You can correct me if I'm wrong with that, but so I don't even know if like the the Cardinals can even win four games this season and those two things kind of go together here. But at the very least, we have seen Mike Lethor uh have a slow start to a extremely talented rookie running back. And once that rookie showed that he was clearly the most talented back in the group, he just gave him 15 to 20 touches per contest.
Yeah. and he almost created his own efficiency in a way and Breeze in like yes they were winning games but that Jets offense on as a whole was pretty bad. Uh he was breaking I think he scored maybe four rushing touchdowns in straight games. He had the third most runs of 15 plus yards, second most runs of 10 plus yards breeze during that six week stretch before he tore his ACL and uh it was just a sad day for all Jets fans. He also had a two yards per out run which is just absurd. So I I think if Laflur I mean it's not it's going to be even more obvious than it was with Bree. I mean, they drafted him third overall, but they got Bree 30 targets through those six games. That was fifth among running backs. Mike Clay does his projections. He actually has Laflur, this offense being first in pass attempts. And then he has Jeremiah Love at like 65 receptions, which Mike Clay is notoriously very conservative with the rookies. He has, I think, I'm trying to think, it's not Mai Lemon, but you could go, oh, like Casey Conpsion, like wide receiver, like 59. Uh, all of these like exciting rookies, super low. But Jeremiah Love is the one where he comes out as like the RB9 in these projections. He's going to catch a ton of passes. He has of course the breakaway speed, the explosion. And even if things are a little bit squeezed with Alier early on, and uh whoever else you think that that running back room is going to get sorted between James Connor, between Trey Benson, who even sticks around, this is somebody who split it back field with Jarian Price last year, had 1300 plus rushing yards on under 200 attempts. Like I just think that with the pass catching, with the long plays, he can just sort of create his own efficiency. And then his playoff schedule, the scary part, like you said, yes, if it's Carson Beck, that is scary.
Yeah, I do I do wonder if we're being too harsh on Carson Beck. Like we all sort of said similar things about Tyler Shuck. Nope, we're not. There's just there's a chance. There's a chance. There's a chance. Uh, but what I'll say so really this is a Jeremiah Love take that can also be packaged as a Carson Beck take is what I'm just saying. I'm just saying I I don't know. I don't know. We'll see if it's truly like Shadore level bad. It could be Shadore level bad. But uh his final three games, so for the fantasy playoffs, all three are in domes. At home verse the Jets, who allowed the third most uh fantasy points to running backs last year in a dome verse the Saints who were 17th last year, but there's going to be such a high pace with Kell Moore. That should be a good matchup on the road in a dome. And then they host the Raiders who allowed the ninth most two running backs last year. So that's a pretty good stretch all in domes during the winter. We'll see if Carson Beck reigns on my parade, but I just think there's a lot of outs to this bet. And it's like the cheapest we've gotten a player of this talent at running back in a year where running backs are super expensive. So, I I just continue to take him uh at the two three turn.
And before you hop in, I I do want to ask you this because whenever we get a coach quote, and especially if you don't actually listen to them, you just read them, uh they can be off the races and interpret in a whole bunch of different ways. I'm sure Reeves is going to throw in the actual video here, but I want to read you what Michael Lor said when asked about his running back room. The first quote, if we can split it up, keep it fresh, have a third down back. We're not there yet, but we want to get there. But then one sentence later, he says, quote, "Steph Curry's on fire and he's supposed to get his sub. You're not taking the hot hand out." And that's kind of the same approach you end up taking with a back. Like a back, just like a basketball player, any football player can get into a rhythm. And it's like just keep giving him the football. Like he's just feeling it right now. So what is your interpretation?
He's going to get the ball a ton. I mean they drafted him third overall here. Like if they the owner like wants Jeremiah Love to be like the face of the franchise. They're going to give him the rock and I think this is going to be a fairly balanced offense and they're going to be losing a bunch of games and Jeremiah Love is an exceptional receiving prospect. So I think like the Mike Clay projections that Ron brought up like I fully believe that like he's going to catch a ton of passes. I think his touchdown opportunities are not going to be nearly as good as Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker ahead of him, but uh at the two-3 turn, I think this is fantastic and half PPR. I have like no qualms with this and like that's like fully incorporating how bad the Cardinals are going to be. I think the Genty season like he ended up still being like worthy of like a third round pick and I don't think the Jeremiah Love stuff's going to get nearly as bad environmentally uh environmentally as the Genty stuff did. So, I'm totally fine with where he's being drafted. My thought is that is a roar shark test that when people hear hot-handed running back, they get scared. When in reality, if you hear hot hand and Jeremiah Love compared to all the other competitors for the Rock, then Jeremiah Love, if he's as talented as everyone thinks he is, is going to get the hot hand. He is the most talented player of that. So, to me, that's actually like a good comment versus many interpretations of it being a negative one. Okay, Ron.
Uh, that was 10 minutes on one name, so we'll go to the next one. and it links into what we just talked about. Bree Hall is your next uh player, running back 14, the second pick of the third round. Talk to me.
Yeah, and it's kind of in this same area where again like I'm taking I guess I haven't dove into the draft strategies part of the offseason yet, but kind of this hero wide receiver idea of you take Chase, JSN, Puka, you come around, you take a Jeremiah Love and you come back around and you can take a Bree Hall and kind of get doubled up on running backs here. I'm trying not to be a homer about Bree. I will say last year I was completely out on Bree, but this year I really like where we're at, especially with these running back prices getting pushed up. You're talking about Javvante here, Kairen's in this range, ETN's in this range. ETN, a guy that I thought was going to catch passes out of college, he really hasn't. He's only been over 40 receptions once. Same with Kirn. Uh Javvante last year, he catches passes, but he had point4 yards per out run, which is just insanely bad. Bree, we know he's touched like 76 catches before. for his career. 1.51 yards per out run would be a top 10 number in any year. He's one of seven running backs since getting drafted to average 29 plus receiving yards per game. And of course, like the elephant in the room is that the Jets suck. But we do have an offensive line. Like that is the uh core tenant of this team is the offensive line. Olu Fashanu is getting better. Joe Titman's getting better. I know you guys are big fans of Armanu as well. He to me should have been the offensive rookie of the year. I I really think that he was that good. I saw a uh I love Baldinger so much, man. He did a breakdown of Membu's first ever career start versus the Steelers. That was the Rogers revenge game, and he handled TJ Watt the entire game. Jets have the fifth easiest schedule this year. And last year, Bree Hall didn't have the receiving numbers we usually expect, but that's because you had Justin Fields, you had Tyrod Taylor, you had Brady Cook, which just kind of lends yourself to one of the more crazy low passing volume teams ever. This is a Ryan Heath tweet. The 2025 Jets over the past 5 years, they ranked 159th of six 160 teams by total passing yards with 2781. Uh so just absolutely absurd. This offensive line should be better. Gino Smith will have protection. That'll at least make the offense instead of being like stone worse like more more like below average. And then I think Gino Smith a little bit up in the air currently, but if he plays if he plays for a while, we get checkdowns to Bree Hall. Instead of the scrambles that you were getting for Tyrod Taylor and the scramles you're getting for Justin Fields and then like Brady Cook wasn't an NFL quarterback. He averaged 9.8 points per game in those games with Brady Cook. Bree Hall, you averaged 14.4 without. That's full PPR though, but it just sort of shows that he was that much better without Brady Cook. And then I think Gino's an upgrade even over uh your tire out in Justin Fields.
Yeah, I like all the running backs in this round. Like to me, this is just where I think the position is still undervalued and half PPR. Like these guys are just going to outscore the wide receivers in this range is like it is what it is. Um, and I think that Bree Hall is just as good as Han and Kairen and Javvante. I want all these guys. Looking back at the history, the Frank Reich part of this is the stuff that just makes me very concerned with this. But with Frank Reich, Jonathan Taylor had a 372 touch season behind a really good Colts offensive line. Uh, I don't think Bree is quite as good as Jonathan Taylor, but there's at least some history of this being a balanced offense, very centered around uh a well- paid, like highly touted running back like they had with JT and now with here with Bree Hall. So, fully agree the offensive line is actually good. It's not mediocre. It's not bad. It's actually a good offensive line. Uh, and there's at least some semblance of a skill group now, uh, but beyond Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson. So, as long as Gino could stay out of trouble and, you know, hold the line, it would be pretty hard for Bree Hall, Achan, I think Kairen, Javvante, all these guys, their workloads are just like too set in stone to me that I think these guys are all going to be really good picks.
This one's pretty simple to me. Like, we know Bree can do everything. He's coming off a career-high over a thousand rushing yards, 36 catches, 350 yards, but that equaled the running back 20 in points per game on the season. And there's an answer as to why, and it's because touchdowns. He only scored five of them. I mean, it really is that simple. He has the talent to literally be a force in the receiving game. We know he can create explosive plays and obviously pick up the yards, block form, and create yards on his own, but the team just has to get better in order to get in more scoring positions. They were 29th in touchdowns per game. Again, don't want to dig up the grave here, Ron, but 1.8 touchdowns per game last year for the Jets. 29th in red zone drives per game. And then 31st once they got to the red zone in terms of red red zone touchdown success rate. So, if you just get to league average in one, two, or all three of those categories, then we are freaking off to the races here with Bree Hall. So again, this has nothing to do with his talent in terms of his ADP. And it's I don't think baking in really at all of if this offense just gets to average in certain areas and scoring touchdowns, then uh man oh man, this could be an monstrous season for Bree.
Yeah. And I'll say too, uh he finally looked like himself last year, even like in the context of a bad offense. He was fourth in explosive run rate, 10th in missles, forced per attempt. So that like wiggle that we were looking for after the ACL tear and just kind of like the injury riddled seasons like it looked like Bree Hall. He just was kind of weighed down by his counterparts.
My last note on Bree uh he had 12 games without Brady Cook in those he was the RB7. In the games with Cook, he was the RB32. So I think like the baseline here is it's like RB7 with like even in a bad offense and I think if the offense becomes good, there's a pathway to him being like the running back seven or eight. So, I think this is appropriately priced and uh I just still like the running backs over the wide receivers in this range.
Okay, Ron, I can already hear the comments yelling at us saying that, "Hey, you guys tell us to take good players on good teams." Right now, you're telling us to take good players on projected bad teams. Uh, so, let's change that with these next two names. All right. Two really good offenses. The first one is T. Higgins being selected as wide receiver 16 and the 11th pick in the third round.
I love T. Higgins. I I feel like I and this isn't I I don't want to start by like tearing down George Pickkins, but that's kind of what it was last year, right? We were drafting T. Higgins at the two-3 turn. Pickins went later. It's like, oh, you can get like the same bet and the Dak Prescott offense next to CD Lamb. And this year, we've kind of done a 180 on that where if you look at last year, 14 game sample for both T. Higgins and games with Jamar Chase, so that's like pretty much every game. 12.6 half PPR points per game. George Pickkins was CD Lamb 12.57 half PPPR points per game and that was last year in kind of a lost season for the Bengals where the Bengals didn't even have Joe Burrow the entire season and still T. Higgins was there because kind of like you're saying in half PPR it really is that simple. It is touchdown upside. Tiggins is a guy who scored 21 touchdowns in his last 27 games and you can say some of that is touchdown luck but also whenever Joe Burrow is healthy he has been in terms of the Bengals passing offense. This is 2021, 2022, 2024. They've been tied for seventh, tied for second, and first in passing touchdowns. So, they're always going to be there. And you can get him after these guys where I love Z Flowers. I love Garrett Wilson, but projecting them for like their median outcomes are probably like seven or eight touchdowns. For T. Higgins, he scores 10 plus in down years where he misses like four games. We've already seen next to Jamar Chase where he's had a top five season. And then you also always have and look, we all want Jamar Chase to play 17 games, but like god forbid something happened to him. T Higgins all of a sudden is someone that you're ranking every week as like what like the wide receiver four or wide receiver five in projections.
he he has all the upside in the world. Like he's somebody he is my like the most drafted player so far. I continue to uh he he's the guy at the top of the exposure list uh cuz he's just so easy. you get to the fourth round all the outside of I guess like Javvante but he gets to like that three four turn if you already have one or two running backs like I'm just taking Tate. I have like no counter to this I like all the wide receivers there T. Higgins has been the one to you know prove that he has the upside and like obviously the contingent upside just for him does not exist in you know Lad Maki Ted McMillan and Garrett Wilson like like T Higgins would go all the way up to the top five. If you go go back to his player profile, Josh, you can just see uh later in the season, he was going absolutely crazy. I mean, he was the wide receiver eight uh in his last four games there. He was like routinely uh a wide receiver one. You can see those huge spike weeks and those are the touchdown weeks. And uh the Bengals are going to be projected for a ton of points. The defense is getting a little bit better. Uh, but it's still relatively bad. There'll be plenty of shootouts here. So, like this is this is where he is like on a baseline projection. And I like Ron is saying like there is like the most obvious contingent upside that does not exist with the other wide receivers with the same baseline projection.
It's pretty obvious why he dropped down from six catches and 76 yards per game down to four catches for 56 yards per game. That's because we went from 17 games of Joe Burrow to eight games of Joe Burrow, six games of Joe Flacco, and three games of Jake Browning. I mean, as you said, Ron, the last time he played 17 games with Joe Burrow, he was the wide receiver four in points per game. Yeah. I mean, we we care most about what we just saw, but just rewind a previous 365 days, and the dude was the wide receiver four in points per game, went 17 games of Joe Burrow, and now you're getting him as the wide receiver 16. And even if he misses multiple games, as you said, Ron, he now has back-to-back seasons of 10 plus touchdowns. This is a freaking layup to me. Uh, and it's kind of why I'm I'm moving over names like Javvante Williams, as I discussed in a previous video, because all these wide receivers in this area like just really get me going. And as Hayden just said, T Higgins is the one that has scored as a top five wide receiver for the entire season before. That's for sure. By the way, we'll link his channel in the description down below, but if you aren't following Ron on YouTube, then you're doing it incorrectly. Uh, he's the man. I actually watch his videos. That can't be said with everyone else because I don't have time for it at this moment, but Ron is the absolute best. So, go and support Ron because uh he comes on and joins us for an episode every single summer. Hair loss. Many, many men suffer it from ages, I don't know, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45. And if you think you are starting to thin and look in the mirror every single day and it's going back and back and back with that receding hairline, now's the time to do something about it. And I know a big hangup, a big stumbling block is, man, it's just going to take way, way, way too much time. You shouldn't have to go out of your way to feel like yourself. So HIMS brings expert care straight to you with 100% online access to personalized treatment plans that put your goals first. And there are no hidden fees. There are no surprise costs. Just real personalized care on your schedule. So for simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit hems.com/underdog. That's hems.com/underdog for your free online visit. Hems.com/underdog. Individual results may vary based on topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions and important safety information. Thank you for sponsoring the show.
Okay, next up, Jaylen Wadd, wide receiver 24, the 11th pick of the fourth round. I've been itching to talk about Jaylen Wadd all summer run and I'm glad you presented his name here today.
Yeah, he is to me one of the most underrated true talents in the NFL. You could go all the way back to his time at Alabama as just like one of the most explosive efficient prospects ever. He has been next to Tyreek Hill his entire career and he still has a career 2.11 yards per out run which like anything over two for an entire career. What are we I think we're in like what year five or year six of Waddle at this point. like it's just year after year uh on a total holistic view of his career. He is efficient on a per target basis despite the target competition. You also he's had a lot of down years due to injury and then like Tua also getting hurt. So you kind of have like a tandem there. But we have a 63game sample with Tua at 12.1 half PPR points per game. That would be the wide receiver 11 last year. So that's just a massive sample of him in a good offense. That's what we're getting this year where it is Boon Knicks, it is Shawn Peyton. This Broncos offense with Shawn Payeyton has kind of been a proven staple. You talk about offensive lines, seems like every offensive line ranking has the Broncos at number one. Uh, also when you look at kind of the more film metrics, you have reception perception. He was 77 percentile verse man, 74th zone, 81st verse press last year, and that was on kind of a sinking Dolphins team, like lost season. And he was still a fringe top 24 guy. And I just think that this is such a boost. They give up a first round pick for him. He's going to be the guy in this offense. And if you want to get really in the weeds, the Broncos had the third most pass attempts from play action last year with 180. Jaylen Wadd last year, even in a bad season for his standard, had 4.17 yards per out run on play action passes, the seventh most in the NFL. So, you get kind of a good marriage of skill sets there. I think that this could be the year that we've kind of been waiting for since I want to say 2022 for Wadd where he finally gets back into the top 12 point per game wide receivers and kind of fully uh, you know we sort of talk about these wide receivers in their first year with the new team. You can kind of think back to like Stfan Diggs with Josh Allen. There's been plenty more since then. But this could just be you know we don't have a good baseline for what it looks like when Wadd's in this offense as the number one. And I I I don't want to put a ceiling on what that could be. I mean, yeah, we've seen wide receiver ones with Shawn Peyton be like the top scoring player in fantasy for like multiple seasons in a row. I had the same notes like the screen rate for for the Broncos last year, top three. RPOS's top three. Play action top three. So, all of like the the benefits that we get from a good coaching staff, we get with him. And I think all the quick hitting stuff that would go to Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin, you got Jaylen Wadd, man. Like that's the reason why he got brought in. like the Troy Franklin stuff, the Marvin stuff was fun while it lasted for like the three plays that they would get. That stuff's going to go to Jaylen Wadd. Plus, all the vertical stuff like when when Bo Nicks is rolling out and throwing the ball across the football field, those big crossing routes are now going to go to uh Jaylen Wadd as well. So, like Corin Sutton, I think, is a nice number two. Uh I think that his targets are going to come way down this year. And I think Jaylen Wadd is like the centerpiece of this offense. He's the joker of the offense and they traded a damn firstrounder plus for him. They're going to get their money's worth here. So, like I think he's he's a layup and I think like to your point if you're going to do the uh hero wide receiver love Bree Hall and then you go to Jaylen Wadd like I I do think that's a very nice balanced team.
Everyone knows that I love Luther Burton. I've loved Luther Burton for a long time. Ron, I know you're in my boat. I think I'm just straight up drafting Jaylen Wadd over Luther Burton at this price right now. And you know the public's doing the opposite. Where are you at with that, Rod?
I I talked about this. I did a uh a wide receiver rankings video and it just sucks. Uh we've especially the underdog market. We've gotten too smart. So, I love Luther Burton. I love Trevon Henderson, but so does everybody else. So, like I I am drafting those guys exactly 8.6% of the time when it makes sense. I'm even taking someone that didn't make this list because you guys talk about him so much. I'm taking Leland over Burden because I think he just straight up out projects Luther Burden. So, I hate it. Uh, I'm hoping, you know, when I get my buddies in my ESPN league, I can take Luther Burden there in the fifth round. But when you're when you're playing in real leagues, it gets it gets tricky. I I I would love to be all in, but uh we all like Luther Burden together. Like, you can uh Bed Johnson can only hop on the mic and speak so glowingly so much uh until he just kind of zaps us all of our EV.
Well, I didn't mean for that to turn to a negative thing. It was just more hyping up Jaylen Wat and what he could be uh here in this offense and all the ranks and percentages that you threw out there. I'll throw out one more where that the Broncos two wide receivers last year ranked 12th in terms of crossing route target rate which is exactly what we want with Jaylen Wadd. Bo Nicks went on the mic just a couple weeks ago and said that there was an element of explosiveness that they've lacked over the last couple of years and that's exactly what Jaylen Wadd brings to the table. And if you just freaking look at it, like Troy Franklin had 18 targets inside of the red zone last year. That is more than what JSN, Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, CD Lamb, Nico Collins, Puka Nakua, Terrell McMillan, all those guys had. If we just funnel those to Jaylen Wadd now, like that is freaking awesome. So, it's almost as if we are able to get a player like this without having to take him anywhere close to the upside being factored in at a high level despite him going around a lot of players like Burton, like Ibuka, like Ted McMillan where the upside is uh kind of baked into those players because they are in their second years right now. And I was looking at the Troy Franklin stuff, the red zone. His A dot in the red zone was at three yards and I remember watching those. A lot of that just like little bubble screens and just like get him like some cheap yardage as you know it's a little bit harder to throw into the end zone. That's going to Jaylen Waddle. Like all that all the funny business that we've seen with Shawn Payeyton is just all going to Jaylen Waddle because he's just a way better athlete than the rest of the guys.
All right, we'll close us out with the tight end. That's Kyle Pittz. The man is even richer than he was last week. Titan 8, the 12th pick of the ninth round. This is on a three-year $54 million extension, uh, $36 million guaranteed. We've had a lot of discussions, not just about the individual titans here, Ron, but also the strategy of drafting tight ends and where you are, uh, able to select them and feeling confident in selecting them. And Cal Pitts is kind of in that middle ground, like I said, at the end of the ninth round. So, talk to me about Pitts and why you're in this year.
I went through and I ranked all these tight ends and I got to the end of it and I said, I'm not sure that Tucker Craft should be two rounds more expensive than him. I I have him currently ranked as my tight end five. Like I I would be open to taking him probably a round earlier than he goes. This is a range too, you kind of touch on it where I'll take Kyle Pitts and you can take either two guys super late or you can sort of double up in this range. Like you could do like Pitts concaid and to me that's a really fun room uh to just sort of cut off at two. But when it comes to pits, they have now fully endorsed him. I think that he is I'll be honest, the AAV stuff in spot track I'll kind of leave to you guys. But I see it's it's KD McBride and then it looks like it's Pitts in terms of AAV. Yeah. Uh which is pretty nuts. It's also pretty vindicating for all the nerds out there where we have stuck by Kyle Pitts. And it's just as simple as Coupe Fiasco on Twitter. I'm sure you guys have heard of him. He is a big tight end guy. He's always talking about you need to be a top two target on your team in terms of having upside. there. Pretty much like every top five tight end season, you have to be a top two target on your team to get the targets or to get the touchdowns. And after him and after Drake London, it is it's Bjan who Bjan's awesome, but he's not going to get more targets than Pitts. And then of course, you have Zachariah Branch, you have Jan Dodson, Alam Zakius. They could I I will say I would maybe chill out a little bit if they do sign like Diggs or Debo, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Whatever book you hop on, pretty much it's Pitts in this like 700 plus receiving yards range. It's McBride, it's Bowers, and then Pitts is in this tier of like Pitts, Leland, and Tyler Warren. And he goes three or four rounds later kind of, and I hate to say it, the upside is baked in. I love Coulson Love, but sort of what we just said with Wadd where Waddle probably projects similarly to your Lad Man, Tedo, McMillan's, but those guys are kind of like the sexy uh year 2, year three breakout. Sort of similar to Tyler Warren and Coloulston Lovelin. And with Kyle Pittz, we sort of saw it last year, like you can't take the genie out of the bottle and then put it back in. In five games without Drake London, his 17g game pace was 119 receptions, 1400 yards, 10 touchdowns. And as much as the London splits mattered, I think that there was definitely more context there because you had Michael Pennix go down. So then you had Kurt Cousins in the offense. And then what ended up happening is that they played a lot more like under center with Kurt Cousins. Now we have new offensive coordinator. So I think there's just a lot going on more than just like, okay, Drake London wasn't there. Kyle Pitts popped off because of it. Like uh you can look at the stats of under center. Kyle Pitts had the seventh most yards among tight ends when the quarterback lined up under lined up under center with 179. But that's of course with like the 26 most attempts from under center to begin with. So on a team that barely did it, Pitts thrived in that role. Tommy Reese and Kevin Stfansky have sort of been on record wanting to go more under center this season. Whether that's Tua or Pennix, I think that that's going to benefit Pitts a lot. Especially in line where Drake London's in that big slot role.
Yeah. 800 yards according to the underdog markets. That's uh just right in line with Devonte Adams, Luther Burton, Mike Evans. Those guys are fourth round picks at wide receiver. Kyle Pittz dominated last year. I mean like people like I just do not think have fully grasped what he did at the end of the season. Now the five games without Drake London, he had 84 yards per game. In the other 12 games with Drake London, that drops to 42. But I think it's hard to take the genie out of the or put the the genie back in the bottle here. After what the hell he just did, he looked healthy again. Like that was the alien that I recognized when he was at Florida and during that rookie season. And then we had three years where it was just he could not turn and explode. And I watched him last year and he's turning and exploding. And there's history of many Hall of Famer types at tight ends not doing a whole lot until they're about 25 26 and then going absolutely crazy. Kyle Pittz for as long as he's been in the league, he's still 25 years old. And I fully agree with the second and target line and how important that is. He's going to be running wide receiver routes and I thought he looked like the freakazoid tight end last year for the first time since his rookie season and I want to be buying into this. I think the payday was just another sign. Um, but he's got a contingent upside like we saw last year with with Drake London. And I think the quick hitting too with offense would be good for him. And then uh I I just think that the offense will like be able to do enough to keep, you know, Pitts Drake London and Bejon happy because there's nobody else in the offense.
Yeah. Can we just like almost copy and paste the Harold Fannon stuff with Kevin Stfansky last year with Cow Pitts? Now I think the target's going to be somewhat different areas. We saw, you know, Fannon do a whole bunch of stuff after the catch and Cal Pitts is more of an intermediate passer receiver and, you know, less of the gimmies, albeit he finally got the gimmies last year. And I think what you're saying, Hayden, is basically he has to get those this year because there is no other avenue other than Drake London for a true receiver other than Bejian Robinson to catch passes this year. So, while I actually think that like the Cow Pitts and Charlie Warner combo blocks last year really prevented some games of Bejian Robinson having even better contests, it honestly does not matter in this offense because as Ron said, he is the pathway to the second best pass catcher on the team and they have no other wide receiver. And we're talking about Kevin Sansancy who has mastered in 12 and heavy personnel sets in previous stops and has revolved his passing game around these interior pass catchers and tight ends namely. So this is a fascinating round though Ron in that like I can make a huge case for Sam Leaport to have a massive bounceback in this Drew Petting offense. Then you have Harold Fannon who we have talked about and then it's cow pitts at the end of it. So, there's a lot of other names, especially at running back and wide receiver, that other people are getting interested in here, but I can again make the case at at tight ends that maybe round nine is one of the more intriguing rounds in all of fantasy football right now.
Yeah, I agree. And I'll uh kind of add on to Hayden there saying it wasn't that long ago that we used to wait for tight ends to break out. Uh, of the top 10 tight end seasons ever in PPR points, it is Gronk in 2011 who was 22 years old. Everybody else was in their age 26 season or older. that is where Kyle Pitts is heading into right now. It really wouldn't be all that crazy uh for Kyle Pitt's best days to be ahead of him. Like as cra like he's he's been around forever. It's like everyone's sick of Kyle Pittz, but there's very much a chance here that his best years are still yet to come. And I just think the unicorn best prospect ever. Like yes, Bowowers came in and we all kind of like did revisionist history of like, oh no, no, Bowowers is the best prospect ever. At the time Pittz was seen he he was drafted over like Jamar Chase and Yeah. No, in the real life draft. Yeah, I I was honestly sort of referencing like dynasty and almost like fantasy football at that time. But yeah, even the real life draft he was he was thought of like that. And nobody I doubt there I doubt there was very few people who came to the podium the next day and was like this is a terrible pick by the Falcons. I mean, it was it was questionable but I he that's who he was coming out of Florida.
Last note I have Kevin Stfansky's offense. This comes from Dagel. This is tight end target share. third, third, fourth, fifth, ninth, second. Yep. I mean, that's David Njoku, that's Harold Fannon. That's just how you can even include Drew Petting in that with Trey McBride this past season. Like, if we're talking about trees, this is the tree of it. Now, if I can push back one thing, it is this. We always talk about Cow Pitts's rookie season, how he cleared, you know, 1,000 yards and had 110 targets. Unfortunately, that season, he only scored one touchdown. And this speaks to the importance of touchdowns. that season he ended as the tight end 14 in points per game despite getting all those receiving yards. So, you know, this past year he scored five touchdowns and while the tight end scoring was, you know, somewhat down overall, that did propel him all the way up to the tight end six. So, I do want to factor in, you know, the offensive success and how he has to score even the difference between six touchdowns and one touchdown because the yards, I'm not going to call them meaningless, but they don't mean as much as like the touchdowns do at the end of the day.
I think should be drafted next to Tyler Warren. I think he's like three or four runs too cheap. I think I think he's actually the most mispriced player on the board. And I looked at my rankings versus ADP on a percentage basis. That's what I have. It's I think Josh Allen's ranked too low. I think Kyle Pittz is ranked way, way, way too low.
Ron, you said it all. You need to say one more thing. Tell the people they can find your work.
Yeah, just Ron Stewart on YouTube going right into reddraft season here. It's the summer. We're drafting teams. We're talking about players rankings. We'll get into draft strategy here pretty soon as well, but we're going, man. We got August around the corner. It is fantasy football season. We are back on the reddraft channel for Ron Stewart, but you can find me there. Uh the Ron Stewart YouTube channel. Everything I do is there.
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