Transcription
People are saying there is a recession, and the biggest one among them is that the AI bubble, what is being said about AI being a bubble, is growing. So these things, but it is a fact that AI is flourishing there. Similarly, you can do SIP in gold and silver, especially in silver. Now, regarding the economics, why did the GDP increase? They are saying that the tariff imposed, the tariff is averaging 17% on people. This is the highest since 1935. The 100-year one will not happen because it cannot be bigger than 1929. It lasted for 10 years. Everyone from YouTubers to everyone is saying that an economic crisis is going to happen.
Hello, I am Vishal Kalra with you. The prices of gold and silver saw a record-breaking surge on November 10. According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold increased by about ₹2000 to reach ₹122,870 per 10 grams, and silver increased by ₹2700 to reach ₹150,975 per kilogram. Talking about this year, gold has become more expensive by ₹45,925 and silver by ₹64,958. Last year, i.e., on December 31, 2024, gold was at ₹76,000 and is now at ₹1,220,000. Silver was at ₹86, which has now come to approximately ₹151,000. Today we will talk to senior journalist Utpal Chaudhary and understand what this renewed surge in gold and silver signifies and why the world's major investors are afraid of the possibility of a global crash or recession. Utpal ji, a very warm welcome to you. Thank you. First of all, let us tell you that sudden developments are being seen in silver. Because the contracts, 27,845 contracts, if you look at these contracts on paper, but if you look at it in metric tons, approximately 2800 metric tons of silver equivalent contracts have suddenly disappeared within two weeks. And this is the biggest drop seen in the last 40 years. This means that the price of silver is going to increase because last time, silver had done this, people had shorted it heavily, knowing that after '45, silver comes down again. So, large positions were ruined. A lot of manipulation happened, due to which a huge fall was seen in silver because otherwise, all the bankers would go bankrupt. To save this, this happened. So this time, when that activity started to be seen, the contracts were withdrawn from there. And it has been observed that on Thursday, one ton of silver was taken out from the economics. On Friday, one ton of silver was seen from the vault. Looking at this, it seems that a rally in silver may continue in the coming time. The second thing is that the biggest resistance for silver is $50. If you see, it is around $48 now. If it sustains around $50 for some time, then it can take an upward rally from there. But in the meantime, many incidents can happen. As for gold, we are talking about gold taking resistance at ₹4000. It is trying to stabilize itself there. If it does, then as is being said, gold can go up to ₹5000-₹6000. But the biggest question is why this is happening. Because regarding the economic crisis, all the experts are giving different opinions that an economic crisis is coming. As Ray Dalio, a big investor in America, has said that there will be a major financial reset that has never happened in 100 years. However, I do not agree with that because in 100 years, it happened in 1929. There was a huge crisis in 1929. At that time, people had to... that crisis lasted for 10 years. Because what did the Fed do at that time? It increased interest rates very rapidly because then it was backed by gold. Utpal ji, many, many things have gotten mixed up. I want us to understand them one by one. First, you talked about silver, so I want you to explain silver a bit more. For the people watching us now who want to invest in silver, what would you say? Where do you see silver going from here? If demand is increasing, what is the reason for it? Because we saw October 17th. Both gold and silver made their all-time high. Silver reached around ₹178,000. It is currently at ₹1,000. It has fallen quite a bit from there. From here, at what pace do you see silver moving forward, and can this demand continue? And if it can continue, what will be the reason for it?
See, the main reason for this is that its use in industry has increased tremendously, reaching 70%. Also, people know that silver is also limited. There are only 5 lakh metric tons left in the world. So, there is a race going on that we need it for industries because there is a huge consumption of silver. Look at America, the USGS there, which works on geology, has declared copper and silver as critical minerals. This means that if you send silver from there, you will have to pay heavy charges, you cannot send it. So America is trying to keep silver safe with itself because America had to bow down to China regarding rare earth materials, and China created its monopoly. In such a situation, it seems that China is buying copper and silver at a very fast pace, and these people think very far ahead. Look at China, it thinks 40-40-50 years ahead. Although America's thinking is short-term. So, because America has been hurt once, it has declared silver as critical minerals. This means that there will be a race for silver in the coming time. But when there is a race, you see that out of approximately 17 lakh tons of silver extracted, 8 lakh tons are for jewelry and other things. If we talk about jewelry, there is not that same emotion as with gold, where people don't sell gold. They sell silver, and mostly poor people have silver, so they sell it. So, there will be significant fluctuations in prices. Do you think it will surpass its all-time high of around ₹178,000 in some time? Yes, absolutely. It will surpass it within a year. But to surpass it, it will scare you many times because, out of fear, the middle class sells. So, it will be taken out of your pocket by showing you fear. For this, the best method, the weapon, is that you will face neither bulls nor bears. Shift, shift, meaning buy it every month, a little bit. Just as we advise for mutual funds to do SIP, similarly, you can also do SIP in gold and silver, especially in silver. Yes, yes, yes. Now, see what has happened in gold and silver. It's not like before. Now all the big fund managers, like Morgan's report says, invest 60% in the stock market, 20% in bonds or FDs, whatever you have, and 20% in gold and silver. So, it is giving a 20% weightage. Okay, you have clarified silver completely that there will be a rally in silver. Industrial demand is high. It will also surpass its all-time high, and you have to invest little by little. Talking about gold, gold had fallen in the last few days. We saw it fall from ₹1300 to ₹19,000. Now it has reached ₹122,000 again. Can this rally continue further? What are the factors affecting the price of gold? Because central banks are buying. They have continued their purchases. Seasonal buying in India happens according to weddings. It is wedding season now. Obviously, that demand will remain there. What else is affecting gold?
See, the biggest thing for gold is the dollar and the economic crisis that is visible at this time. At this time, see, stocks are rising, Bitcoin is rising, property and flats are rising, and gold and silver are also rising. Everything is rising. So, among the sensible people, see, gold and silver also have... one is that banks are buying. Their matter is completely with the dollar, that they want to strengthen their currency compared to the dollar, so they are buying it. Second, the other investors are buying because it seems that an economic crisis might come in America. All sorts of things, every expert is saying. Whichever expert you listen to, everyone is saying. When the economic crisis of 2008 came, only a few people said that an economic crisis might come, and many other things. And before that, in 2000, very few people were talking. But at this time, whoever you see, from YouTubers to everyone, is saying that an economic crisis is going to happen. And for this, gold is seen as a safe zone. Although whether an economic crisis will happen or not is a very big discussion. A long bulletin can be made on that. But in view of this, people reach safe zones. So gold is always safe. Therefore, the inclination towards gold will remain, and gold will keep increasing in the coming time. Keep in mind that only 54,000 metric tons of gold is left underground, and at the rate it is being extracted, 3000 metric tons are extracted every year. So, looking at it this way, it will be finished in 18 years if new mines are not found. So, demand for gold will always remain. Okay? Just as you said for silver that it will surpass its all-time high of ₹178,000, do you think that the record of ₹1300 made some time ago will also be surpassed in the coming days, and it is not far away? Can it happen soon? Absolutely, absolutely. ₹1300 will be a very small milestone for it. This is a long-distance runner. It will run a lot more. But during that run, it will scare you. It will tire you. It will make you sell things. It will also go down. Meaning, see, no rally is such that it suddenly shoots up from here. If it is being said that gold will increase by 25% in a year, it will not increase by 25% directly. Then it would increase in five days. In that 25% increase, it will keep fluctuating up and down. Just like you see an ECG, the graph goes up and down, similarly, investors' heartbeats also go up and down with the price of gold. If you stay, you stay. Okay, now I want to understand why these investors like Ray Dalio or Robert Kiyosaki are repeatedly expressing fears of a global crash and economic recession. And as an indication, they are saying that central banks worldwide are buying and accumulating gold. The world is moving towards a gold standard instead of a dollar standard. America is weakening. There is already a shutdown there. We know that. Their debt is at an all-time high. There are various wars going on in the world. What is the reason behind the fear of this global recession and economic crisis? Why are such big investors repeatedly expressing this fear?
See, regarding what Ray Dalio said, he said it will be the biggest in 100 years and a very big crash. The 100-year one will not happen because it cannot be bigger than 1929. That lasted for 10 years, and there was a mistake by the Fed, many mistakes. The Fed increased interest rates so that people would not take money and buy gold. For that reason, gold was abolished in 1933. That's a different story. Second, if you look at it, his seven or eight points do not seem genuine at this time. Those points will make your bulletin long, but the things being observed, like 1929, 2000, 2008, 2020, whenever economic crises have occurred, there is always a warning before them. A warning comes, and they are sensing that warning this time. Because last time, in 2000, people made a mistake, but the stories are different. Because if you look, in 2000, it was the dot-com bubble, and the Fed increased interest rates by 6.5% and increased them 17 times so that people would not invest in it. And at that time, in dot-com, the accounting of the IT sectors where money was being invested was not correct. Many companies were fraudulent, so money was going in, production was going in, and all those companies disappeared. Because of that, the bubble burst. Second thing, the housing bubble of 2009 was also a big fault. Compared to the current situation, it was a big mistake. In that, you could take a house with 0% down payment, whereas here it is 10% or 20%. There, they were giving it at 0%. And you bought a house, the price of the house increased. After the price increased, you mortgaged that house for ₹1.5 lakh. Then, using that ₹1.5 lakh mortgage, you got ₹1 lakh. So, you bought another house for ₹80,000. Then that ₹80,000 house went up to ₹1 lakh. So, what happened was that you created three or four houses from one house, and the bank thought it would be profitable. This was Lehman Brothers, and what happens in the end? When things crash, how does it happen? How does a bubble burst? When it inflates completely, and when the last buyer backs out, then the crash comes. So, that kind of housing crash happened, which caused a huge impact. And it is observed that when people talk about recession, if you look at 2000, it was the 2000 bubble. Do not call 2000 a recession because in 2000, it was seen that for two consecutive quarters, there was negative positivity. Now, if you look at 2009, it was -2.58, and zero, meaning it was not negative twice. 2000, sorry, in 2000, the dot-com bubble, it was not negative for two quarters. It was negative for only one quarter, so it was not a recession, it was a bubble. But in 2009, it went negative for four quarters, so it became a big bubble. And the story of 2008 and 1929 was completely different. In that, many quarters were... Now, do you see a similar situation in the American stock market or in what is happening in America? I was just getting to that. This time, what happened was that Quarter 1 was -0.61, so people thought that one quarter has passed, and the second quarter will also pass, so it's a recession. It was declared a recession because it went negative for two quarters. But in Quarter 2, it saw a huge surge, 3.28 or 3.2 something jump. Yes, in Quarter 1, it was -0.06, it went negative. In Quarter 2, GDP came in at 3.8%. So, this GDP came in, it surged. Now, regarding the economics, why did GDP increase? They are saying that the tariff imposed, the tariff is averaging 17% on people. This is the highest since 1935. And many companies have reduced their profits. For example, a Chinese company reduced its prices by 17% so that the American market would not be number one. Second, due to tariffs, a lot of goods were bought in advance, due to which Quarter 2 showed a development of 3.8%. At that time, it avoided recession. Now, what will happen here is that Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 will have to be negative for it to be a recession. So, it is still far away, but the threat remains. The threat is looming. Because at this time, the effect of the tariffs imposed by Trump is not being seen. And a research came out that its industry, the domestic industry, is being heavily taxed, around 64%. For example, suppose there was a car company. Some of its parts went to Mexico, some to Canada. Then the parts came back, then they went for redevelopment. So now, after going three or four times, tax is levied every time, tariffs are levied. Due to tariffs, it is said to be 64%. So, considering all those factors, people are saying there is a recession. And the biggest among them is the AI bubble, what is being said about AI being a bubble, is growing. So these things, but it is a fact that AI is flourishing there. But the biggest thing is that its six or seven companies are doing very well, they are making profits. At the time of the dot-com bubble, the companies where money was invested were not making profits. But what happened is that along with companies like Amazon, their software, Meta, and many other small companies, meaning 500 unicorns have come, there is a problem there. But the big companies, now, as is being said, Nvidia is running something like that, that Nvidia is buying on Amazon, buying on Amazon. In this way, they are buying from each other and increasing it. So, because of that, people are saying there is a risk of recession. But to say this now would be a bit premature. It will take time, but no doubt, threats are looming. But regarding the Indian stock market, people have said similar things in the last few years. Although the Indian stock market has not run at a very fast pace in the last year, until some time ago, it was running at a very fast pace, and people were asking the question that in our country, neither so many industries are being set up, nor so much manufacturing is happening, nor is our service sector running as fast as our stock market is running. Although, as I said, not much has happened in the last year. But have you ever felt in the last three-four years that a bubble was forming in the Indian stock market, or is there any such threat that is not visible from here now but for which we need to be prepared?
See, the Indian stock market is completely different. In a way, earlier, it used to be heavily influenced by the American stock market. It is still influenced because when FIIs invest, we are influenced. But what has happened is that so much money is coming from retail investors that DIIs... See, in 2009, when the economic crisis happened, our stock market fell by 60%. When America fell, we also fell. So, at that time, when Manmohan Singh was there, it was thought, why did it fall? Then DII formation happened. The money going through mutual funds was not going in a unified way, not like an umbrella. After that, you will see that when FII sells, DII buys. Earlier, now there is so much flow of money that DII always buys. So, what happens is that it supports the stock market. Look at this, FIIs sold shares worth ₹3200 crore in one year, and DIIs bought shares worth more than that, approximately over ₹5 lakh crore. So, what happened? The market fell by 5%. At that time, if FIIs had sold ₹3 lakh crore, the market would have crashed. So, the story here is different. Here, if something happens in America, its effect will definitely be seen. But the talk of 60% will not happen at all. Because so much public money comes here. And second, understand in a recession, who suffers losses? Neither bulls nor bears suffer losses. The loss is suffered by greedy people. Because greedy people do this, if you have bought shares or property, anything, and a recession comes, and you don't sell, you bought fundamentally strong shares, you bought fundamentally strong plots, flats, and you didn't sell, they reverse later. This has been seen, it bounces back completely. So, in this way, look at the time of COVID, it seemed that the whole world would end. Around March 23rd, it crashed completely, and look at the reversal from March 23rd, or in 2009, companies that seemed to be available at throwaway prices. So, at this time, what happens is that recession makes you rich if you have money and you bought something at cheap prices. Recession offers things at cheap prices. So, recession should not be seen in a negative light. It should be seen in this way: if you have money, invest it. Keep one thing in mind: do not borrow money, invest only your own money, and invest in fundamentally solid things so that the money will come back. One last question regarding Bitcoin. The regulations in India are still not clear. But because the rising prices of Bitcoin are attracting people in India, especially the youth, who are thinking of making money by going into Bitcoin. What advice would you give?
See, there is a tremendous craze for Bitcoin among people. But now the story of Bitcoin has changed a lot. If you had bought earlier, you would have benefited greatly. At this time, there is a lot of risk in it. Because see, at the Gold Term conference in Las Vegas, 1000 people came, and for Bitcoin, 400 people came. So, you can imagine the craze for Bitcoin. See, in Bitcoin, there are 2 crore 10 lakh coins. Apart from that, no more coins are being minted. So, it's a game of demand and supply. Many companies, even today, I was reading, 160 companies have included Bitcoin on their balance sheet, which is about 5% of Bitcoin. But in Bitcoin, the thing is that it has now become a game for the rich. And people like us, small investors, or our channel's viewers, customers, cannot buy one Bitcoin now. They will buy a small piece of it. And there will be risk involved in that, because there is no basis for it. Just like now, Bitcoin is in a bear phase, down 20%. But it is not in the stage it was in 2018. What advice would you give to the youth of India: invest little by little, or would you say to stay away for now? Stay away from Bitcoin. Stay away from it. Invest in gold and silver instead. They are excellent. Enjoy Bitcoin, but stay away. In my opinion, cryptocurrency should be avoided by small investors like us. If you are very fond of it, very eager to do something, then do not invest more than 2%. Because if that money is lost, you should not regret it. Okay. Thank you very much, Utpal ji, for joining us once again. We understood the prices of gold and silver, the global factors affecting these prices at this time, and what investors should do. Thank you very much for joining us.