Transcription
Folks, I believe this stock is a once-in-a-lifetime steal, but I don't believe that steal is going to be around for much longer. In today's video, we're going to break down the latest on the market and plays, and then we're going to go on to this main entree.
This main entree, which is a stock that's down around 70%. It keeps beating again and again on earnings. Its sales are growing exponentially. It trades under 3x forward sales versus best-in-class comps at about 10 to 15x sales, 30x if you're in more bullish conditions, which quite frankly we're in. It has category-leading metrics that would normally command a much more premium multiple. And they just started doing massive share buybacks because the price is so damn low. I'll present the case and let you be the judge.
And then it's going to be time for our sponsored segment on Mind Walk Holdings, ticker symbol HYFT on the NASDAQ. This is a bio-native AI company that just put up its third straight quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, doubled US revenue, and signed its first ever recurring enterprise contract. It's trading at roughly a sixth of the market cap of its closest publicly traded peer in the antibody discovery space. I'll break down why you may want to begin your due diligence on the stock and put it on your radar. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented.
Okay, first we got to talk about the latest on the market. So, a lot of people love to say that stocks are overvalued. And when asked what they mean by that, they say, "Well, stocks are higher than they were a month ago, a year ago, 10 years ago, and so on and so forth." And of course, we've had a massive and beautiful couple of years. In fact, just from the lows of the Iran war dip that bottomed at the end of March, well, the triple Q/NASDAQ 100 is up a bit over 25%. If you go back to our videos during the outbreak and the dip of that Iran conflict, we explained that historically buying the dip during war on average results in massive wealth generation over the next 3 to 6 months. That's just based on the data and that's what we presented. And that was based on data going back 29 different geopolitical crises.
But now that markets are back at all-time highs, well, naturally a lot of people are like, "Okay, well, has the market gotten too expensive? Aren't we extremely overvalued right now?" Now, I mean, Michael Bur just made his 300th prediction of a bare market. Well, let's look at the data. So, if you look at the forward PE of the NASDAQ 100, which is basically where all the growth in this year's market has stemmed from. Anyways, well, the forward PE of the NASDAQ 100 is hovering around 24. Since 2016, markets have been willing to pay a forward PE of about 20 to 30 for the NASDAQ 100. Again, right now, markets are paying around 24. So, is the tech-centric NASDAQ extremely expensive right now? If you're looking at the forward PE, well, we're about mid-range right now. Not too expensive, not too cheap either.
Now, the dot-com bubblers have been screaming non-stop that right now we're in the middle of the next dot bubble. An era famous for crazy valuations with very little, if any, earnings. If you look at that period of time, well, forward PE ratios were just under 100 at the top of the dot bubble. Today, they are about 1/4 of that. But how can that be, Charlie? The dot bubblers told us that this must be worse than the dot era. Well, you see, while tech stocks are skyrocketing, the earnings underneath them are also skyrocketing. In the dot-com era back here, stocks skyrocketed, but earnings were nowhere to be found. So, that's a big difference between the two time periods.
Now, if you look at the overall S&P 500, we have been in a bull market since October of 2022. It's returned about 110%. It's actually a little bit less than this as of today. But bears are saying this here is the craziest, most extreme overvalued market in history. They want you to believe that there has never been a time like today in terms of the overvaluing of stocks. Now, if you go based on doom vibing, that's a very, very good analysis. However, if you go based on historical data, not so much. We're in a very, very standard bull market. And comparing today's market to the asset melt-up of 2009 to 2020 or the most popular, the 1989 to dot bubble top, well, I think that that comparison is very, very premature. If you believe that we're in the dot-com bubble era, well, the argument would have to be that we're very, very much in the early innings of it, at which case it makes no sense to be scared. And also keep in mind that when you're looking at markets, if you actually factor out all the massive money printing and inflation, well, stock market performance has been very, very nil.
So anyways, is the overall stock market super cheap right now? No. Is it crazy expensive? Also no. However, there are some areas of the market that are dirt cheap and that's the software space. So in order to understand what's happening with the software space, you got to really appreciate what goes on with cycles. So last summer the narrative was buy only software, sell all chips. And then today they say buy only chips, sell all software. And then next cycle they'll say buy only software, sell all chips. And then 5 years from now what's going to happen? Well, chips and software, the quality ones are both going to be way higher in price and people are going to say sell both. Stocks can't keep going up forever.
Okay, but Charlie, there's a real reason why SaaS stocks are down right now. Well, there's always a reason for every cycle, but it's always misleading and it's always overblown. SaaS stocks are down right now because Wall Street is panicking over a switch of monetization model. But if you look at history, this has happened many times to many different industries, specifically to the software one. Just take Adobe. Back when I was a kid, if you wanted Photoshop on your computer, you'd go down to Staples or Office Depot and get one of these Photoshop installation discs, which were super duper expensive, but it was a one-time fee, and you only had to pay that once, and you had the software theoretically forever. Of course, it would go obsolete, but the idea was you'd keep getting the update. Well, all of a sudden, they started to switch that model. In the early 2010s, Adobe started to switch over to monthly, quarterly, and annual, and everyone freaked out and the stock dumped, and people said, "Adobe is done for." Customers were incredibly upset. Adobe actually has a long history of pissing off customers. And it was right around here in May 2013 when Adobe stopped selling physical copies entirely.
But here's the thing. Despite this pissing off all their customers and causing panic in their share price, well, Adobe stock went on to more than 10x over the next 8 years. Why, Charlie? Well, because what Adobe gained by adapting to the SaaS model was very, very substantial. It gained predictable recurring revenue that analysts could model. It eliminated piracy almost overnight because you can't really pirate a cloud authorization. It lowered barriers to entry, bringing in millions of new customers. It created a continuous customer relationship instead of every 18-month transactions. And it gave them real-time data on what features customers actually use so they could focus on that.
Now, the other example is Microsoft. If you look at Microsoft, they launched Office 365 in 2011. A lot of people were pissed because at the time Office was a $20 billion business selling mostly as box/perpetual licenses. And Wall Street was very, very skeptical that enterprise customers would even accept a subscription model. So they recommended everybody sell the stock as fast as possible. Analysts worried that lifetime customer value would decrease. The stock traded sideways for years during this early transition and then all of a sudden Satya Nadella took over in 2014 and he pushed the company to go all-in on the cloud plus subscription model. And if you look at what the stock did, well, it went from $40 to over $500 over the next decade. And this is the same situation that software stock after software stock went through back in that era. The company would say, "We're pivoting to a SaaS model." Everybody would recommend selling the stock. People would lose everything and then all of a sudden the company started printing money and the stock went up much faster than anybody had ever seen before. As usual, the people who buy the fear are the ones that make all the money. The people that sell on fear are the ones that lose all the money.
So anyways, this is relevant now because we're in the same kind of situation. It's a new version of the story, sure, but it's the same story. People have been selling software first and asking questions second. Many of the same names that were panic sold back in the early 2010s are now being panic sold all over again. And many of these names were S-tier software companies that Wall Street couldn't get enough of two years ago.
Take a look at Service Now, ticker symbol NOW. So, Service Now has been the poster child of this dump. We've been screaming this one's a buy for weeks now, and it's had a nice little bounce here, but it's still down around 50% from its 2024 highs despite becoming an objectively much stronger company over that same time span. Wall Street has been fear-mongering ad nauseam that now customers are going to need much, much less in terms of seats because of generative AI. Now, if you base your investing solely on doom math, absolutely they're right. However, if you want to look at the real math, completely different story. If you look at their earnings report that just came out in April, not only has their seat business been growing rapidly, but they said some 50% of new business is already on the non-seat pricing. So what you're left with here is a super high-margin business that is converting their customers more and more away from the SaaS apocalypse fears while at the same time being down some 50% from highs reached 2 years ago before any of this massive progress was made. This, in my opinion, is one of the best and most obvious dip buys today.
Next, you got to take a look at Salesforce. So, same thing, down some 50% since December 2024. Now, after I graduated college, I moved up to the Bay Area, which was about an hour north of my UC Santa Cruz campus. This was around 2019, and that's when Salesforce had just opened their new headquarters right smack in the middle of SF. And everyone was talking about it constantly. Every time you drive into SF, you couldn't miss their headquarters because it was the tallest, most bold building in SF, and it still is. This was really symbolic as well for a company that was just exploding and that everybody was talking about. Their growth was crazy and they paid people crazy salaries to attract talent. If you went to college like I did in or around the Bay Area, this was the place that you wanted to get a job at the time. And that's simply reminiscent of the fact that Salesforce was just completely changing the entire software space the last 20 years and completely changing how America and the world did business. And the company is still doing that. However, if you go through analyst reports and you go through the stock price and you look at what's being said about Salesforce, well, they're treating this company like it's completely helpless and it's destined to die. Again, if you base your analysis on doom vibing and doom math, sure. However, if you look at the actual data they're reporting, well, that analysis makes no sense.
Traditionally, how the Salesforce model has worked is say Salesforce charges an employee $150 bucks a month per salesperson. Well, bears would look at that and they'd say, you know what, AI is going to shrink teams substantially because one salesperson can do the work of 50 if you consider AI agents. So, a lot of that revenue is just going to die. Well, Salesforce has already thought of this and they've already pivoted. They now sell AI agents called Agent Force and charge $2 per conversation the agent has. So, if a company replaces 10 sales people with AI, Salesforce isn't losing 10 seats. They're getting paid every time the AI does the work these people used to do, which actually might long-term even be way more lucrative than the previous model because the market is simply way bigger than the old one. They're getting paid per usage. Think about the general trajectory of software. At first, you have that one-time fee and then you have the monthly fee and now you're actually going to have a fee based on the usage. Now, aside from being a customer not wanting to pay for usage, the fact of the matter is that this is way more lucrative for software companies. The companies that can pivot like Salesforce and like a lot of the other ones that we're talking about, those are going to be making more money than ever long-term, not less as the bears are trying to say.
Now, think about competitive advantage. Pretty much every big company on Earth, Walmart, Disney, every major bank has 20-plus years of customer information sitting inside Salesforce. Every sales call, every support ticket, every deal. An AI agent is only as smart as the data it can see. So, a company that actually cares about being competitive can't just throw away their Salesforce relationship to move on to some new startup. They actually need that data. Big companies also don't switch software very easily. There are security reviews, legal reviews, government compliance, the whole circus. Salesforce already has all those approvals and existing contracts. A scrappy AI startup with a slick demo doesn't get past the front door for this. They also spent years quietly buying the pieces they need to stay competitive. Salesforce bought a bunch of companies that seemed expensive at the time like Slack, Tableau, Mulesoft, DataCloud. Turns out those were the exact tools AI agents need to actually work effectively inside a business. So they built this massive toolkit to thrive in the SaaS apocalypse. They also have money to fight. They have some $38 billion in annual revenue, massive profits. If necessary, they could operate at massive losses for many years and they can buy most of the competitors before they even get dangerous.
So when I'm looking at CRM, I'm thinking, okay, this one is pretty obviously very, very juicy. If you look at the price to sales, we're talking a P/S ratio of 4.13. In 2022, people were throwing money at Salesforce at a ratio that was almost 3x higher. If you look at price to free cash flow, it's at 13.42. In the 2020, 2021 era, it was bouncing around 40 to 60. So, I think this is screaming buy.
Okay. Now, main entree, ticker symbol KVYO. So, this is one ugly ass chart. It's so ugly that if you were walking on the sidewalk and you saw this chart walking by, you're going to be crossing the street into oncoming traffic just to avoid it 100%. But here's the thing. The stock has been absolutely destroyed on these same SaaS apocalypse fears despite the company positioning fantastically for long-term growth. Despite the fact that over the next 5 to 10 years, this stock could be doing such exponential revenue growth and such exponential earnings. The upside here is so asymmetric. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's down at such dysphoria prices. It's like the company's been going like this while the stock has been going like this. Even the short-term headwinds that bears are highlighting are very, very short-term in nature.
So what does Clay Vio do? Well, Clay Vio is a business-to-consumer CRM and marketing software. Think of it as the brain that sits behind every "Hey, we noticed you left something in your cart" email. Every "Your favorite brand just restocked" text and every push notification tied perfectly to when you're most likely to open it. They sell software direct to consumer brands. Now you might say that sounds a little bit boring. However, the money is in the boringness. If you actually look at how integrated this company is into the global economy, your head is going to spin off. Almost everybody watching this has been a customer of this company, even if they haven't heard of it before. The product itself unifies email, SMS, WhatsApp, push notifications, reviews, and now, of course, AI agents, all running off one customer data platform, a platform that processes, get this, 3.7 billion daily events across more than 8 billion consumer profiles. Oh, the world population is about 8.3 billion. Now, I'm not saying that there's 8 billion people that use this, but if you're a customer of any of the 193,000 businesses that use Clay Vio, well, for each one that you're a customer of, you have another profile. And all the data that comes in through that, well, that's the moat. Because every brand that plugs into Clay Vio feeds the engine, the engine gets smarter, the predictions get more accurate, and marketing gets more personalized, and the ROI per dollar spent goes up for the customer. And what this company offers works very, very well and is proven in field.
Now, let's talk about the actual business. Show me the money, Charlie. Well, Clay Vio just reported Q1 of 2026. Revenue came in at $358 million, up 28% year-over-year. Trailing 12-month revenue is now $1.31 billion, growing 30%. Non-GAAP gross margin sits at what? 75.7%. Non-GAAP operating margin hit 16.4%, the strongest operating margin they have ever posted as a public company. At the same time where bears say that this company is worth less than ever. Operating margin expanded almost 500 basis points year-over-year. They raised their full-year revenue guidance to $1.514 to $1.522 billion. That implies 23% growth for the full year. Dollar-based net revenue retention came in at 110%. That means existing customers are spending 10% more this year than last year. Net of every churned account. Customers are not leaving, they are expanding.
Now look at where this growth is really coming from. So, customers generating over $50,000 in annual recurring revenue grew 38% year-over-year. They now have 4,175 of them. So, while the SaaS apocalypse narrative is saying that enterprises are going to ditch traditional SaaS for AI, well, Clay Vio is actually proving them wrong in real time. It's adding enterprise customers at 38% growth. That is not a closing of the business. Now, if you're looking at international, international revenue grew 39% year-over-year, outpacing the Americas. EMEA plus APAC is now 37% of total revenue, up from 34%. Balance sheet, $984.6 million in cash, essentially no debt, trailing 12-month free cash flow of $212 million with a 16% free cash flow margin that has expanded every quarter for the last year. And oh, by the way, management just authorized a $500 million share buyback program, and they already executed a hundred million of that as an accelerated repurchase that closed in April. When a company trading near 52-week lows announces a buyback of that size, well, that's management telling you they think their own stock is very, very much underpriced. So, despite what bears are saying, this is not some unprofitable cash incinerator that's being destroyed. This is a profitable company with crazy margins and very beautiful staying power that's being discounted blanketly in this overall SaaS apocalypse. 28% growth, a billion dollars in cash, generating free cash flow, real beautiful free cash flow, and buying back its own stock. Yet, the bears will have you believe this stock is going to zero. I think that's a mispricing. I think that's an opportunity. And I think that long-term you're going to look back at the stock and be like, "Wow, that was an obvious buy."
And now it's time for our sponsored segment on Mindwalk Holding, ticker symbol HYFT, on the NASDAQ. This is a bio-native AI company that just put up its third straight quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, doubled US revenue, and signed its first ever recurring enterprise contract on its core AI platform. It also happens to be trading at roughly a sixth of the market cap of its closest publicly traded peer in the antibody discovery space. I'll break down why you may want to do your due diligence on this and put it on your radar.
Okay, so Mindwalk is using artificial intelligence to discover new drugs. But to understand why their approach matters, you have to understand how drug discovery normally works and how broken it is. So here's the problem. Developing a new drug typically takes over a decade and costs billions of dollars. And the failure rate is brutal. Something like nine out of 10 drug candidates that enter clinical trials never make it to market. The reason is that biology is incredibly complicated. And the tools scientists have used for the last 30 years are mostly built around matching DNA sequences. You take a target, say a virus, you look at its genetic code, and you try to design something that fits. The trouble is, biology doesn't really care about DNA sequences. Two molecules can have totally different genetic codes and do basically the same thing in the body. And the same virus can mutate its DNA constantly while still functioning identically. Sequence matching tools miss all of this.
So what Mindwalk built is an AI that looks at biology completely differently. Instead of matching DNA sequences, their technology called HYFT looks at the functional fingerprint of a molecule. The shape, the behavior, the underlying biophysics, the stuff that actually determines whether a drug works. Their AI can spot patterns across thousands of different molecules even when the genetics look nothing alike. On top of HYFT, Mindwalk built a software platform called Lens AI that pharma companies log into and use to do their drug discovery work, finding targets, designing molecules, evaluating candidates, and underneath all of that, they run an actual laboratory where they test what the AI suggests. AI generates ideas, the lab confirms them. Results feed back into the AI. It's a closed loop, and that's why they call themselves a bio-native AI company. The AI and the biology aren't separate. They're built into each other.
Now, in terms of some context on Mindwalk's valuation, there's another publicly traded company in this exact space worth knowing about. It's called Omniab, ticker symbol OABI, on the NASDAQ, and they do something very similar. They license antibody discovery technology to pharma companies, and they have their own AI tools layered on top. Omniab is the more established name. They have over 40 pharma partners, a long track record, and they're held by some genuinely sophisticated biotech hedge funds, White Fort Capital, Cadian Capital, Woodline Partners, alongside the usual giants like BlackRock and Vanguard. And in late 2025, they signed a major deal with a new company backed by Viking Global Investors, which is a hedge fund that manages over $55 billion. So, real institutional money is flowing into this corner of the market. Here's the punch line, though. Omniab's market cap is roughly $353 million as of today. Mindwalk's market cap is roughly $57.69 million, about 1/6th the size. Same general business model, same end market, same institutional thesis behind it all. The difference is that Omniab is the incumbent and Mindwalk is the challenger. Omniab has the head start here. Mindwalk has the smaller valuation and arguably a potentially more modern technology AI built into the platform from day one instead of bolted on after the fact. Whether the gap closes is the question everybody in the space is trying to answer. Worth understanding both companies though if you're looking and analyzing and doing your own due diligence.
Now let's talk about the risks because this is a super small cap and super small caps are very volatile. They have a lot of risk. A lot of them fail. Probably most of them fail and dilution can happen at any point. Mindwalk is not profitable yet. The pipeline projects are still early stage. Lab results don't always translate to real human results. Most early stage drug candidates fail. And so make sure to consider all this when you're doing your own due diligence and researching for yourself, reading through all the SEC filings. I'll put the link to their investor relations page down below so you can do all this due diligence. Anyways, have a great rest of your day.