Transcription
Hello Raptors fans and welcome back to Raptors Report. I'm your host Julian and today we're going to be taking a look at the Toronto Raptors game against the Boston Celtics. But before we do that, we've got to talk about the playoff seeding battle that is taking place right now in the Eastern Conference. It's pretty exciting, so let's jump right in.
So first of all, the Toronto Raptors are sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference due to the tiebreakers that they have with the Philadelphia 76ers. Uh right now the 6ers and the Raptors are tied in terms of their head-to-head. So the 76ers have a better division record. There's a couple of different criteria that you can meet. Uh it goes down the list and the Raptors uh have a worse division record than uh the Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors division is extremely stacked, so it's not really a surprise, but they are currently occupying the sixth and final playoff spot. Uh the 6ers are.
Now the Toronto Raptors uh are in the play-in and right now if the playoffs started tomorrow or the play-in started tomorrow, they would be facing the uh play-in veteran uh Miami Heat in the 7 to 10 matchup. Uh yeah, you don't want to get that. Uh the Heat have been there a gazillion times and they have a really good coach, so it would be a toss-up. You wouldn't want to get into that situation. >> [snorts] >>
Uh so let's talk about the playoffs cuz that's where the Toronto Raptors hope to be. Uh the Hawks are now two games up on the Toronto Raptors for the fifth spot uh with only four games remaining. Uh so this is a tough battle. This is not built kind for the Toronto Raptors. >> [music] >>
Uh and also there's one other potential uh monkey wrench that could be thrown into things. Uh the Raptors are only a loss away from the Charlotte Hornets uh for the eighth seed. Uh and that matters because if the Hornets go on a big streak, uh the Toronto Raptors, if they end up tied with them, the Hornets also have a better uh division winning record than the Toronto Raptors. Uh the two non uh Atlantic Conference uh divisions are pretty soft, so they've gotten a lot of wins, the teams in the other divisions. So yeah, they would be ahead of the Raptors. So that's not good either.
So what we're going to do in this episode, we're going to take a look at the final four games, talk about all the different potentialities uh with the Toronto Raptors, the Atlanta Hawks, the 76ers, and then the final three games for the Hornets because they have one additional loss on their record right now than the Toronto Raptors do. So it's they're half game back.
So first, let's take a look at the upcoming schedule for the Toronto Raptors. I'm sure if you're Raptors fan, you've probably been looking at it, maybe have been looking at it for a while now, but it bears repeating, bears talking about, so let's do it. So the Toronto Raptors play the Heat in two consecutive games in Toronto uh separated by a day on Tuesday and Thursday. Um and this is really the linchpin of the season, in my opinion. Um they will need to show that they can beat a, you know, competent-ish team, the Miami Heat, who they've beaten twice already this season. They will have to show that they can do it two more times. I think that they really have to beat the Heat twice in order to make a real shot at the playoffs. So um yeah, the Heat have been on a big slide recently. They've lost uh seven of their past 10 games. Guys are in and out of the lineup. Uh Tyler Herro is out for personal reasons day-to-day. Um and uh Norman Powell has just been kind of getting back into the swing of things, although he missed last game cuz he's sick. But you could assume that they would be at full roster strength uh when the Toronto Raptors face them for those final two games and they will be taking it very seriously cuz I'm sure that they're don't feel like they're completely out of it. Also, as I mentioned, it is a battle in the play-in. Like they could be facing the Toronto Raptors in the play-in, so they want to show that they can beat them. But I I I really think that the Raptors kind of have to show that they are a better team than the Miami Heat if they want to make the playoffs.
Uh after those two games, the Raptors play the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, so that will be a very tough game. They haven't shown that they can beat the Knicks this season. The Knicks are a well-constructed team and they have star power, they have defenders at the wing position, they have shooting. It's not a good matchup for the Toronto Raptors and they've shown why uh this season. Uh so I'm not really, you know, penciling in a win there. And then the final uh they finish the season against the Brooklyn Nets in Toronto and I think they probably should be able to win that game.
Uh so in my opinion, I think in order to make the playoffs, they need to go uh uh three and one or better. Three and one does not guarantee a playoff spot. Uh I'll get into why that is in a little bit uh because if they only if they end up tied with the Hawks, who they have the tiebreaker over, uh will it matter for playoff seeding. Uh the other two teams, as I mentioned, the 76ers and the [music] Hornets, they have the they lost the uh tiebreaker against those two teams, so if they end up tied with those teams, they will uh fall below them. But yeah, three and one, so if you count the Knicks as a loss, which is probably what's going to happen, then they would need to beat the Heat twice and pick up the game against uh the Nets in order to give themselves a fighting chance for the final spot.
Uh now let's take a look at the 76ers because they are the team directly ahead of the Toronto Raptors uh in that sixth spot. Uh so the 6ers play the Spurs next, then the Rockets, followed by the Pacers and the Bucks. So that's a pretty, you know, unbalanced schedule. Uh the Spurs are technically not out of the running for the first seed in the West, but it it's rather unlikely that they get there. There is a wrinkle here. Uh as you probably know, there is a 65-game cutoff for uh all of the awards that you have at the end of the season. Victor Wembanyama uh has currently played 62 games this season. So there is a real incentive for him to play against the 76ers. He will probably, you know, it's the next game. You don't want to miss that one cuz if you have a real injury, maybe on the last game or you want to sit the last game, uh you will not have wanted to have sat a game and then be ineligible for your end-of-season award. So I think he will play in that game.
Uh and then they face the Rockets and the Rockets have a lot of incentive to win. There is a big playoff seeding battle uh three-way between them, the Lakers, and the Denver Nuggets, so they will be trying to win that game. The 6ers then play the Pacers and the Bucks. Uh both are kind of walkovers, although the Pacers have given the Raptors some, you know, help recently by beating the Magic, beating the uh Heat. So yeah, I mean maybe they could lose to the Pacers, but I I don't think it's very likely and I think the Bucks are just in a complete tailspin. I think that the 6ers can pick up those two games. So if the 6ers go two and two and the Raptors go three and one, the Raptors will finish ahead of them. Um so that is what the Toronto Raptors should be aiming for and hoping that the Spurs and the Rockets are able to take care of business against the 6ers.
Uh next, the Hawks. Uh the Hawks have two fewer losses than the Toronto Raptors. Uh they have a bunch of hard games remaining. So this is like if you saw them in the standings, you'd be like, okay, this is over. There's four games left. Hawks have two fewer losses than the Toronto Raptors. Um there are a couple of mitigating factors here. As I mentioned, if the Raptors tie them, they will finish ahead of them because they swept the season series against the Hawks. Uh and the Hawks have a difficult schedule. They have um you know, one game against the Knicks. They play the Cavs twice. And then they play the Heat on the final game of the season. And none of those games are gimmies. Uh the Knicks are right in the thick of it, them and the Cavs. Uh those two teams in particular are in a playoff seeding battle of their own. Uh the third and fourth spots are up for grabs, meaning that they probably want to get home court if one of those teams advances and they face each other. So this is a pretty consequential uh set of games for them, so they are going to want to win those games. So the Knicks and the Cavs, uh who they play twice, are incentivized to win those games. But the Hawks have been very good lately. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. They have looked like a like a really good team uh since the All-Star break. Jaylen Johnson has been unbelievable. Uh they've got a lot of role players that fit together very well. It's just it seems like they are, you know, firing on all cylinders. So >> [music] >> what would be sort of a nightmare schedule for probably the Toronto Raptors, you'd be looking at a losing record there. They might be able to win those games. So they would really have to finish one and three and then the Raptors would have to finish three and one in order for the Toronto Raptors to tie the Hawks and as a result of tying the Hawks, finish above them. It's a narrow possibility. Uh I think it's more likely that they probably split those final games uh two and two. And unless the Raptors in that scenario went four and 0, uh they the Hawks are clear of them. So it's more of a scenario where the Toronto Raptors go three and one and the Hawks go one and three. So that is pretty, uh you know, it's not likely. I'm going to say that.
And last but not least, we'll talk about the Hornets. The Hornets have one more loss than the Toronto Raptors and they're also below the Raptors, so they're in the eighth spot. So this is sort of a scenario where they would have to strive and beat out a couple of teams in order to make the playoffs and push the Raptors out. So this isn't as impactful, but it is worth talking about. So if the Raptors tie the Hornets, they're in the same situation as with the 76ers. The season series was tied and therefore uh they will have to go to like divisions and the um you know, Hornets have an easier division, way easier, and therefore they have a really good win percentage against that division and so they would finish ahead of the Raptors, uh which is like it's possible. Uh but the final three games that they play are pretty hard. Uh they play the Celtics, they play play the Pistons, and they play the Knicks. Um that's a tough group. And there might be some resting going on there. I'm not exactly sure. Uh the Hornets are playing very well, so you know, they might just be able to win those games. And but because of the additional loss on their the record, they would really have to win out, like win all three of those games in order for the uh for them to tie the Toronto Raptors if the Raptors were to go three and one, like in the scenario I described. If they go two and one, not good enough. The Raptors would finish with a better record. If they win out, they would tie the Raptors and pass them. It's possible. They've been very good recently, but you know, I think three and one should put the Toronto Raptors ahead of the Hornets for the final couple games of the season.
Now, [music] I think that three and one may get the Raptors to the playoffs because the Sixers have, you know, two losable games and the Hawks, you know, one and three is not out of the question with some of the teams that they're playing. So, it is possible that three and one gives the Raptors a ticket to the playoffs. But, they'd really need to go four and 0 in order to really ink their ticket. I think four and 0 would put them in the driver's seat going into the playoffs. That's a big ask though, especially with New York still on the menu. Those Heat games being, you know, I think favored for the Raptors, but you play them twice. So, [music] you know, that that is another can of worms. I think the fifth seed is unlikely, but I don't think it really matters. A fifth and sixth have equal value in my mind because the Cavs and the Knicks are neck and neck for the third and fourth seeds. It's not clear which team is going to finish third or fourth for those matchups to matter. Which means that, you know, it doesn't really matter if the Raptors finish fifth, which is very unlikely. I don't think that that's going to happen. But, sixth is pretty much just as good as fifth in my opinion. So, it doesn't really matter which of those spots that they get. If the Raptors don't make the playoffs, I don't really care what seed they're in. I mean, I do kind of care. I would actually rather them play the Pistons in the first round than the Boston Celtics. We'll get to that cuz we're going to talk about the game. The Raptors really don't have a shot against the Celtics as we saw yesterday. And the Pistons, they're good. They're really good and they'll probably have Cade Cunningham back, although I'm not exactly sure. But, you know, they they're a really good team and they've beaten the Raptors three times this season. So, [music] I would prefer the Pistons, no doubt about it. I think that you know, there's more questions about them in a playoff scenario. The Raptors have beaten them. They haven't beaten the Celtics. I think they're a dog in that series. I think the Raptors aren't like a particularly great matchup against them, but they would have a chance. So, if they go into the play-in, maybe you try and angle for that final like the eighth seed. But, [music] like whatever. I don't know. It just >> [laughter] >> I don't even want to think about the play-in. I think that that would be a it would be a waste of a really strong season. I think that this was one of the most competitive Eastern Conferences that we've seen in a very long time. I think that there will be multiple teams with 45 wins or greater this in the Eastern Conference this year. So, yeah, it's it's stressful, but it is entertaining.
And now let's talk a little bit about the Toronto Raptors game against the Boston Celtics. I'm not going to go fully into depth here. I'll just paint with broad strokes. The Toronto Raptors, as they did a couple of times against some good teams, started the first half back and forth. The Toronto Raptors played the Detroit Pistons that way. They kept it close. They played their game. It was neck and neck. And then in the second half, the better teams like the Pistons and the Celtics figured out the Toronto Raptors what they're trying to do, took away those options after half time. Like they cleared up all of the problems that they were having and just pulled away with the games. >> [music] >>
It's really tough because right now, I mean, this is another thing that we've got to talk about is Immanuel Quickley's health. Immanuel Quickley is I think will be available for the final four games. The word coming out of Darko's mouth at least is that he is, you know, he's practicing. He's getting shots up. He is being rested and he will be back. So, that is what I'm hoping because against the Celtics, the half court offense is terrible. It's just not good at all. They don't really have any advantages there over the Boston Celtics. Jakob Poeltl in this game had a pretty bad game. I think a lot of people are putting a lot of this on his head and I understand that. He didn't play particularly well, but it's important to consider what what he's being asked to do, especially on the defensive end. So, on the defensive end, the Toronto Raptors were trying to guard the Tatum pick and roll by hard hedging with Jakob Poeltl, which is where the the screener's defender, so in the the big in most cases, comes out to cut off the angle that the offensive player, in this case Tatum, would be getting going to the basket. So, like basically, it's like a soft double team that you are throwing at the ball handler where then the center tries to come back and if there's a pass to the big, he can recover and, you know, make a play on the ball or maybe they turn it over. It's part of the Toronto Raptors game plan and I understand why they did it. One of the big reasons that they did it is because they had RJ Barrett on Tatum for a decent portion of the night and that's a bad matchup. That is a bad matchup for the Toronto Raptors. Jason Tatum is a really talented screen user. He's a very talented offensive player. If you give him an advantage that you just naturally get in the pick and roll with RJ Barrett guarding him, he will score you know, a gazillion times.
Now, what I thought the Toronto Raptors should do is that's not a bad plan, but you have to send help on the roller. The Toronto Raptors were basically allowing Neemias Queta to catch the ball in the paint and finish. And so, he finished with a gazillion points and because Jakob Poeltl is out guarding on the perimeter in the pick and roll, he's also not there to grab the rebound. So, he has to come back in from the outside if they put a shot up, which happened. And Queta's right under the basket to grab the rebound. What they need to do in those scenarios is peel Brandon Ingram off of the corner in order he is a decent defender in the paint >> [music] >> to literally just come over, leave his man, and come over under the basket and just provide a long-armed contest. It seemed that too often Queta was getting just a clear path to the basket. And that's just not something that your defense can recover from. And what they were trying to do basically was overload the ball handler and force a ton of turnovers. And I mean, they did force a lot of turnovers in the first half. So, it's not necessarily a bad plan. But, you have to have contingencies to that plan and I didn't see that enough last night. And just in terms of like the Toronto Raptors basically have to turn the other team over all night long in order to generate offense, especially when they don't have the shooting. They need to turn them over over and over and over again and don't stop because their half court is so bad. Half court offense that is. Their half court defense is decent, but obviously they would prefer to play in transition. They did that in the first half, but you know, the clock ran out on them and once it turned into a half court battle, the Celtics are just better equipped for that. So, yeah, that's just how it goes. The Toronto Raptors are not equipped to beat Boston Celtics. That's I think that, you know, that that would be a very bad draw in the playoffs if they fell into the play-in. I think that they would have to seriously consider losing their first game to fall into the the the eight the battle for the eighth seed. So, because, you know, they would be in the 7-8 and they would be facing one another to get into the playoffs as the seventh seed. So, they would have to lose to whatever team that they're playing against, probably the Hornets, and then they would have to win the second play-in game against the 9-10 so that they could get draw the Pistons in the first round. It's all very complicated, but yeah, it's that time of year. You got to look at that kind of stuff and hopefully I was able to make it a little bit more elucidating. The game last night was not very elucidating. So, that's all I have to say about that, but hopefully I gave you a little bit of some information here and let you know what's at stake and what is going on with the Toronto Raptors. So, cross your fingers everybody. Hopefully they're able to do the thing, make the playoffs, and you know, ink their ticket to the first playoff series in, you know, five years. Hopefully they can do it. But, in any case, that is the episode. Thank you for tuning in. Please leave a like and subscribe to the channel if you can because that helps the channel grow. Helps the algorithm know that this is content that other Raptors fans would like to watch. Also, there's a podcast tonight at 8:30. I do it with Steve, aka Raptor Shack. We have a really good time. Why don't you come and join us at the time, 8:30, or if you can't make it, just tune in to YouTube or Spotify. The episode will be uploaded for you to take a look at. And join the Discord. We've got a really active Discord, lots of Raptors fans there talking basketball. And as always, thank you for watching Raptors Report, your source for in-depth Raptors content.