Transcription
Regime change wars rarely go well. And according to the leading academic on air wars, bombing campaigns to replace governments don't just not usually work, they never ever work.
Um, Robert Pape, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, and he advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, and he was speaking here to Sky. "I have studied every air campaign since World War I. This is my specialty. I spent three years teaching conventional targeting strategy for the US Air Force. I've studied leadership decapitation in detail. I've modeled the bombing of Foraux, the regime change in Iran for 20 years. So, this is something I know quite a bit about. And literally 10 days ago, I started on Substack the escalation trap because I worried exactly watching the Armada being built, we would fall into the escalation trap. And that's what's happened. We are now in the grip of the escalation trap, or the smart bomb trap, to be more precise, where the illusion of the 100% tactical success, which is real. It's the, the success of the bombs blowing up the targets is not false. It creates the illusion of control of escalation, and that is the smart bomb trap, and that is what has gripped us right now. And the problem is that once we drop those bombs, and once we announce regime change is our goal, and we had no other tools trying to do this from the air. This has never worked in over a hundred years. This is not like it works sometimes or rarely works. I'm choosing my words carefully. President Trump is up against the weight of history here. And it's the illusion of the smart bombs being near perfect and destroying their target. And the problem is when those bombs fall, they inject, they change politics in the target. They inject nationalism into the regime. They inject nationalism into the society, and they essentially fuse the regime and society against the air power attacker. And this is what you are seeing because now society and the regime are taking more risky steps, and they do things that no one anticipated before. And that failure to anticipate the worst case, that has happened numerous times with smart bombs. That's just what happened in the last 36 hours."
That was Robert Pape, University of Chicago. Suppose a sort of John Mearsheimer type character. I have emailed Robert Pape. If you're watching this, Robert Pape, do come on the show. I'd love to interview you. Um, very well put there though, right? I mean, the point being that regime change wars in general never really work. Very, very rare.
Yeah. Um, but if you've got boots on the ground, there's a small chance it might work in your favor. So, there's a small chance you will be able to rebuild the country in your image. You know, a bit like Germany or Japan, for example. But if all you want to do is bomb from the air, if you don't want to have any boots on the ground at all, as you know, the Americans don't seem to want to. I mean, Israel definitely doesn't have the capacity to do that. Then the chance is not just small, it's literally zero. Yeah, that's what he's saying.
Yeah. So, a few things in terms of air war, you know, the exact same figures in British politics who are saying, "Yeah, just bomb Iran into submission." The exact same people look at the Blitz in the Second World War. They, they look at it as a moment of national togetherness and resilience. They say, "Hitler and the Luftwaffe tried to flatten this country. People never came together more." Why do you not think the same would happen in Iran? Which is Robert Pape's point, right? There, there is a, there is a a dual reality here of seeking to destroy a people, but actually the response is a different one. That's what we see. And this is actually one of the primary criticisms that are made against Allied bombings of Germany, Bomber Harris and whatnot. The, the bombing of Dresden, uh, Hamburg, Berlin, etc. They, they were not meant to actually undermine the German war effort. The whole point was to demoralize Germans. Did it literally didn't work. We have a ton of data showing it doesn't work. It's no different with Iran. Um, and the exact same people who are aware of this argument with regards to the Second World War in this country are making it, um, in relation to this other place thousands of miles away, presumably because they think they're, they're less, they're less brave than we are. They're not like us. Well, no, it's exactly the same as Robert Pape. So, eloquently explained.
Uh, let's wrap up there. Aaron Bastani. Pleasure spending an evening with you. Really, really fun. I, I wasn't on top form tonight because, uh, I slept five hours.
You were very energetic. Very energetic for a man who only slept five hours.
Up with my daughter this morning, and I must say, Michael, uh, for people out there with kids or grandparents, partners, brothers, sisters, make the most of them. That's really what this whole thing brings home with me watching is that, uh, there's so much death and suffering in the world. You need to bring more joy and happiness into it. We need to balance things out. It makes me want to have more kids with my wife, that's for sure. But, uh, strange thing to say, but it's important to to focus on the positives.