Transcription
What's up everybody? It's your boy Maine here. I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas. You didn't spend too much time staring at the charts because they're doing nothing. Much like the limbo that we're currently in between Christmas and New Year's where you're unsure if you should get started on your New Year's resolutions early or if you should just keep gorging yourself like the fat pig that you are.
Uh, Bitcoin has been in limbo. So, I'm like running out of things to talk about. So, I'm going to do my best to make this video interesting, even though uh price actually hasn't really moved much at all. We'll touch on some other assets like gold and silver because at least those are doing something and they're getting their Christmas Santa rally where Bitcoin uh basically is just kind of stuck uh in this 85 to 90K area. So, overnight on Sunday, Bitcoin touched 90K. You can see the wick here touched 90K and then immediately got smacked uh back down. So, same old stuff. It moves up and then it gets smacked right back down. Um and uh it sucks. I know it's very boring because we're seeing gold, silver rip to record highs. Hell, even the S&P 500 made new all-time highs uh to end last week. But there's a little bit we can talk about that maybe can add to our opium tank as we continue to take massive toes out of that thing hoping that price [ __ ] goes a little bit higher.
So as we go into 2026 um whales are still buying. The data shows that whales are still buying where retail is capitulating. And I'm going to explain how you actually track these things. We've also been in the 30 plus day range of extreme fear here on the fear and greed index. So people are fearful right now. Price hasn't really moved. Basically for the last month, like since December 15th, we've been pinned right here between 85 and 90. But even going back to November 20th, we've basically been between 93 and 80 or the low 80s probably more accurately for going on a little over a month, almost a month and a half at this point. The yearly candle is about to close on Wednesday night. So here's everything I think uh that is important to know going into uh this very uh lackluster year for crypto because we kind of just went sideways all year.
Uh, let's start by looking at the yearly candle here. Okay, so the yearly candle. Just delete all of this stuff here. Uh, is potentially going to close red. And uh, you probably saw me get into an argument with a few people, of course, unless it's able to close back above this in the next couple of days. Still possible. Uh, but you probably saw me get in an argument with someone named Gamma Chan on Twitter about this where he says, "Oh, well, this bull market's been compressed and therefore 2026 is going to be the the new bull run because this one sucked." And I'm kind of like, bro, like unfortunately, as much as you might want it to be different, I feel like people like him, including him, are trying to force their bullish bias onto the market that may not actually be bullish. They're trying to project some sort of outcome for 2026 by saying, "Well, this is what happened last time and this doesn't make sense that it didn't happen this time." And so his whole argument was that, you know, 2025 was basically sideways and, you know, this bull market was compressed because of the ETF and the Trump [ __ ]. The end of the day, this bull market looks a whole lot like the last bull market, at least the last year of it, right? We had a huge move up, a pullback, and then another move up with a slightly higher high, and then bang, it was over. You could argue that this and this are very similar price action-wise. You can pull um a comparison tool here and actually look directly at these here. So, I'll go to bars. I think it's this one. Right? If you take this top and you drag it over here, it's not that dissimilar, guys. It's not that dissimilar. Oops. Uh, of of this prior top here, like, yeah, we made a slightly higher high this time as opposed to just like the SFP at the highs, but big move up, huge pullback, second pump, gave up the goat. Now, if you want to, and so his whole argument was like, well, last time, you know, it went up more and usually it's one bare year, bare market, three-year bull market, then one year bare market. In reality, just because it happened last time doesn't mean it has to happen this time. But my argument to him was like, even his entire thesis that well last time, you know, was different. I'm like, it wasn't though. I mean, the last year of the bull market, last bull run, very similar. It was it was sideways. Like, yes, this pump was bigger, but this pullback was also bigger. Ultimately, the structure is very similar. I'd say the biggest difference between the prior bull run and this one is the leadup. Um, you know, the leadup to this bull run, in my opinion, was a little bit more orderly where we had a move up, consolidate, move up, consolidate, move up, consolidate, move up, consolidate, bang, and it's just up and up and up. Where here we had this very long parabolic leg that seemed to never end with no pullbacks where here we had multiple. I don't think that that's material though, and I don't think any of that matters. And and my entire point to him was like, just trade structure. Just trade the chart. You guys know if you've watched any of my last 12 videos while price has done [ __ ] [ __ ] all um that I still believe we're due for one more leg up. You know, I got a couple people in my comments who are like, "Oh, Maine's got all this knowledge, but he bought the top." It's like, well, I didn't buy the top. I took a couple longs on the way down here. But, uh, I didn't puke the bottom, right? I'm still of the belief that we're going to get an exit a lot closer to 100K than 80K, which was the low. And so, that's why I've maintained this bias. If we're able to get above here, reclaim the yearly open, I think we can trade into the low to mid hundreds at least, maybe a new all-time high at best. Now, whether or not this does this and then goes up, or we're going to do this and then go up, I don't know yet, but we need to get above the yearly open. Until we get above the yearly open, there's no way to know for sure if this is actually a low that's going to hold. Once we get above the yearly open and make a higher high effectively, I think this becomes your stop loss for any sort of spot holdings long bias and you just ride this thing until either it breaks down like it stops making higher highs, right? Or if there's like some big SFP, [ __ ] you SFP up in resistance here. Okay.
So, why not just wait and see if price puts in a [ __ ] higher high and and and and shows bullish structure, which is what I'm trying to show with just this downtrend line here, right? I'm not a trend line trader, you guys know. I'm just showing this is like, hey, we have not made a higher high since October on the higher time frames. So, if we're able to get above this t this trend line, that's a clue that maybe we're going to be, you know, in a midterm bottom here and we're actually going to see some bullish structure come out of this low. But it's way too early to tell. We do not know yet if that is going to actually play out. So, trying to [ __ ] play with your crystal ball and take these random tiny data points. Bitcoin is also a very new asset. Like, it's only had a few bull runs. So to try and extrapolate a year into the future because something happened last time and you have all of these weird reasonings like it's just cherrypicking data. So it's just cherrypicking data that fits your narrative. I can find an equal amount of data points in the opposite to go against what you're saying. Right? So I I just don't think that that's useful. Um, I think what I'm focused on and maybe what you're focused on as well, which is why you're watching this channel, is where the [ __ ] do we exit the remaining of of our spot bags. I think we can get a little higher. I'm going to let the chart tell me whether or not that's the case. And if we're going to have a new bull run in 2026, like he's saying, and some other people are saying, it's a 5-year cycle. It's going to be in the charts first. It will be very obvious that the market's bullish. And what is the first step? Well, let's break above this trend line. Let's get above the yearly open. Then we could start talking about bullish price action. Not even a bull market in 2026, just bullish price action in general. So, my thesis remains the same. I think we're putting in a low here. I think we're due for a bounce. Uh, it's just a matter of whether we take out these lows or not, but I've talked about this in the last like eight videos and price hasn't moved in the last eight videos. But there is a bit of a reason why, right? What we've seen basically every day it seems like for the last two weeks is Bitcoin pumps up to like 90k in Asia and then the US burgers come on and they smack it back down into the 80s all month long, right? Above 90, gets sold off back down. Uh, ETH doing the same thing. It gets up to 3K or near 3K, gets smacked back down and everyone's like, "Oh my god, the burgers, the burgers, the burgers." And really we're in this very tight range here, right? Like I I I drew out this larger range, but you could even argue that we are in a range just from like here to here, right? And we're just in this range. I obviously had it drawn all the way, but like this is even more accurate right now. Whereas you basically every time we've come up here, smack down, smack down, smack down, smack down, gets to bottom range, bought up, bought up, bought up, and and like this is it. Now, why is that keep happening? Is it because the burgers [ __ ] hate us uh and they don't want to see prices higher or is there an actual reasoning before it now for it, excuse me.
Now, what you've probably seen on Twitter talked by some people is this massive options expiry uh that happened. So, we had $27 billion uh it's a big number in options uh expire on Derbit. This was between BTC and ETH. This is the biggest options expiry in history and more than half of all open interest is now gone. So what does this mean? Why does it even matter? Um, well, when you have this much open interest in options, right? Most of these were bullish options by the way. People are expecting price to go higher. You have a lot of hedging going on. So all month there were people, right, hedging dealers, whatever you want to call them, traders hedging around this 85k number for downside and 90k for upside, right? So it kind of pinned us between 85 and 90k. So it's not actually just the burgers uh, it's actually gamma who we should be blaming because there was this massive options expiry, but now this gamma is cleared. So, um, I think that this actually could line up very well with my thesis that we're due for volatility here. I think we're due for volatility soon. We're coming to kind of the apex here of this move. And it's funny, I said, "Hey, we're coming to the apex of the move." Uh, like in a video like two weeks ago and then we just made another move down and then another move up. Well, now we're really at the [ __ ] apex and this thing should get going here, I think, into the new year. The options have expired. Hopefully all the people who are doing like tax loss har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har harvesting have gotten their [ __ ] jollies out as well and now the market can actually move. So uh, I think if there has ever been a time for this thing to just blast off towards the yearly open and and towards like 98k here, I think it's I think it's soon, right? I think it's it's it's within the next like week or so. So, I'm going to be watching very intently um for price to finally start trading higher, okay, a and moving towards the mid 90ks, hopefully up to the 100k area and beyond, which is what I have been talking about um for seemingly forever, but for at least the last month. This idea that we're due for one more year-end pump. Well, it's the end of the year and now it looks like it's going to be a pump into the start of the new year. Um, and I guys, I I I'm I'm stretching here trying to make these interesting for you because usually I have more price action to talk about. So, I literally was like googling stuff to discuss outside of just the the the TA because there's not much going on. My thesis remains the same. I'm remaining with a bull bias even if we swipe a little bit lower first.
Um, Sailor bought some more Bitcoin, right? So, uh, they bought another 100 million, 1,200 Bitcoin. They have now almost 700,000 Bitcoin, 670,000. Um, so where he he this is a far cry from the billions he was buying before and I think he bought almost a billion like in the middle of December and then another billion near the start of December. Um, regardless, um, he's still buying and, uh, he's also got some cash, right? As you guys know, he's got about $2 and a half billion dollars in cash uh to to to service the debt. So, I think a lot of the sailor doomers like, "Oh, what price is Sailor going to unwind?" I don't think he's going to have to unwind. Um, so, um, interesting to watch. Um, interesting to see, but Sailor still bullish and so are the whales, right? So, um, there are some data points over on Glass Node that you can actually look up and it shows that large BTC wallets holding more than a thousand Bitcoin are buying Bitcoin and smaller BTC wallets, less than a thousand Bitcoin, imagine less than a thousand being small are net sellers across the board. So, um, that coupled with fear and greed being at all-time high, 30 days in extreme fear, options expiry, well, most of the OI was looking for a move up to 100K. Historically, these types of things line up at a bottom. It doesn't mean it has to be a bottom. Um, it's just kind of data points and maybe I'm doing what Gamma Chan is doing and I'm cherrypicking some data points that support my bullish bias, but at the end of the day, um, my bias is primarily based on the chart and the fact that these data points back that up and strengthen that argument for me. Fantastic. But the same BTC uh whales that were buying when we hit 80K, um, you know, are still holding on to their Bitcoin. Um, they're not selling. So that that that's a good sign.
Now, let's talk about something that's interesting because there's nothing going on here on Bitcoin. There's nothing going on here on ETH. Um, you know, similar to Bitcoin trading up to 3K, back down, up to 3K, back down. We're just pinned in this range here. Um, you know, we're at weekly support. I think we're forming a low. Same thing with Solana. We're at weekly support. I think we're forming a low here. Uh, but I want to see this resolve to the upside soon. Now, let's talk about something interesting. Like I said, let's talk about gold. Gold's up like 70% on the year. Okay, silver is up like well over um 100% 120 130% on the year while Bitcoin is down 30% from the high and is actually negative on the year right now. Where gold, the safe haven asset, is ripping, digital gold uh is not ripping. So there is definitely some economic uncertainty in the world even though um uh the stock market is at all-time high. I don't think the economy is doing as well as the stock market purports it to be and people are seeing, you know, or we are seeing capital flow to these safe havens and assets and right now it's gold, it's not um, it's not uh crypto, which is a little bit um, you know, disappointing, but I don't think that it's the end of the world. I still think that there's a safe haven narrative for Bitcoin. You got to remember gold has been this safe haven asset for a very long time. Uh, whereas Bitcoin is still relatively new. I know it's been around for 15 16 years, but in terms of investable assets, it's relatively new. And so I think the investor base is different and I think it's going to take a little bit more time for people to potentially realize, you know, Bitcoin can actually be this safe haven asset that um, you know, gold currently is, that silver currently is acting as.
Now, looking at the gold chart itself, we had a weekly order block here and then we've got these kind of two trend lines that I'm watching. And the all I'm showing you guys with the trend line, I'm not a trend line trader, is is the market making higher lows or not. Right? So when the trend is very steep, you can use a trend line as a guide to just determine when these higher lows might end. Because let's say it's like boom boom boom, right? Boom. And then it's like goes crazy parabolic. Well, if you draw a trend line like this, if price breaks below this trend line, that's a clue that this trend might end. Even though we haven't taken out this low yet and officially made a lower low and signal the trend change, the fact that we've lost the steep line with the crazy slope might be a clue that indeed, okay, this trend was ending. So that's all I use them for and that's why you've only seen me pull them out here recently is because these things are in blowoff the top territory where these trend lines become very useful. So we had this very aggressive trend here and then lo and behold before it actually broke this trend right and and slowed down and consolidated, we had a break of this aggressive trend line here. Once it broke that aggressive trend line, you can see from October until basically December, it did not make a new high. Right? We had a multi-month period here of sideways and now it's eaked out a new high and we're going to do the same thing here. We have this very aggressive trend line that it's forming here. Um, if it breaks below this, this kind of uptrend here and this weekly order block is going to be the decision point I think for gold. If it's going to have one more leg to 5K, I think it needs to hold this box. But ultimately, flashbang um, ultimately uh, we need to see um, how much juice this has. But this is in a blowoff the top, right? Like this is a blowoff the top type of chart. No two ways about it. This thing is up 70% on the year. The chart is completely vertical. Uh, and I think the top is probably closer than many people think. I'm not saying it's in yet. It can go higher. And if you're long, I think you can remain long until proven otherwise until the trend changes. Uh, but we are in a blowoff the top in gold and we're in a blow off the top in silver as well. China also just like announced that they're going to be restricting silver exports and they control a massive amount of the global supply like greater than 50%. Um, so is that a sign right that there's some sort of like supply chain shock coming? Is that part of the fuel? We also saw the CME change the margin requirements for metals. Uh, these to me are top signal type of things. Again, I'm not trying to call top on either of these rallies, but these are by all metrics in my book blowoff the top moves that we're seeing here in metals, in gold, in equities as well. Right? This is a blowoff the top. This move from April to here, this is a blow off the top to me. This is a parabolic [ __ ] move. Right? How do these parabolic moves end with this [ __ ] How do these parabolic moves end with this [ __ ] Right? We are in one of these. Okay? No two ways about it. These are these are parabolic moves. This is the blowoff the top for the stock market in my opinion. And this is going to lead to a massive correction going into the latter half of 2026 in my opinion. But for now, no reason to get bearish on stocks yet. Everyone was telling us that this was going to $6,000 here. And I kept commenting under everyone's post $7,000 and that was the low. I thought we might come a little lower. We front ran my zone a little bit. We made a higher high. I think maybe some consolidation, maybe a bit of a pullback, but ultimately I think we get another leg here on the S&P towards the 7,000s. Doesn't have to happen, but I'm still going to be bull biased for now until proven otherwise.
So, everything is getting that blowoff the top move. And the question is, is Bitcoin going to close any of this gap? Are we going to close any of this gap? So, there's still kind of holiday liquidity here. It's pretty thin. Um, the yearly open angle like, oh, it's three years up, one year's down. This year might close red. I don't really think that that matters that much. I do think people make decisions based on the yearly open levels for trade ideas. However, um, I think that it's more narrative than actual importance. If you shift the yearly open by like one week or like a month, it changes that whole argument. So, I I I don't think it's it's that it's that important. But again, I don't think you need to um be super focused right now. I think coming into the new year, next few days, once January comes through here, we're into the new year. I think we'll see some of that liquidity come back to the market. Um, in terms of narratives for next year, QT, it ended, right? The Fed cut rates a bunch of times and the macro backdrop is improving. Now, does that mean that I think 2026 for the entire year is going to be bullish? Absolutely not. I don't think uh all of 2026 is going to be bullish. I actually think the latter half's going to be bearish and we're going to be looking to buy those bare market lows in the end of 2026. That being said, the QE narrative, the improving macro backdoc narrative, that's what I want to see to fuel this final leg up here uh on on Bitcoin for us to exit our spot and then uh wait to buy the lows and then when actual QE happens, because the real QE where they're injecting a ton of [ __ ] money, not $4 billion, I'm talking trillions of dollars, uh that's going to happen when the markets are in turmoil. Oil and rates are already near zero. Rates are not near zero and the stock market is at all-time high. I think it's much more realistic that QE happens like the actual QE happens here and we're buying there and then we get to ride that QE positive monetary environment uh, you know, to Valhalla one more time. Same thing with stocks, right? I think it's much more realistic that QE happens, you know, down here. I don't know how low this goes. Don't don't kill me for scale. It's more time-wise, latter half of uh 2026 here, actual QE, when the market is in turmoil, they've cut rates another couple of times. Rates, I I think we're at 3.75 still, right? They should be near zero before actual QE really kicks in because the rate cutting no longer works. Now, they got to do the stimulus. So, uh, I I know this is a bit of a different video. Um, but I'm just trying to give you guys some useful information that you may not know because there's quite literally nothing to talk about on price until we get a [ __ ] move here. I do think that that's coming soon, but I've been saying that for two weeks now and we're just going sideways. So, let's see if the new year, the fact that the options have expired, all of that fun stuff, holidays ending, finally brings a VA back to this boring market.
Uh, and until then, guys, uh, that's all I got. So, um, I'll sign off here. If you want to support your boy, as always, you know how to do it. Link in the description. Check out my website. You can find links to the haven. Uh, you can find my free telegram, my free discord. If you want to trade at breakout, use code main to get a discount. If you want to use the IMG indicator, it marks out your order blocks, your ranges, your SFPs, that is on the website as well. You can find that. Uh, all my ref links if you want to support me. Of course, doesn't cost you anything. Just leave me nice comments. I did a new type of video. There's this popular video type going on on on YouTube where it's like 10 years of, you know, this info in 10 minutes. So, I tried to create one of those cryptoreated. Hopefully, you guys like it. It's doing pretty well. So, if you want to see more videos like that, let me know. I've got some educational stuff coming out as well. One is in the hopper with the editor currently, so that'll be coming out soon. Otherwise, if there's anything you want to see, guys, as always, let me know in the comments down below. I hope you have a fantastic new year. If I don't talk to you before then, uh, enjoy, be safe, love you, and we'll talk to you next year.