MLB & NFL Picks with Kyle Kirms | Wednesday September 3rd

I mean, it's Cooper Russ two and a half points. I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn't, we have a real problem.

You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had the one good game against Kansas at home.

When Toast talks about the kicking market, it's like some earth is flat [ __ ] Candy. True or false? This is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it's going to be very ugly.

Buzz. This is going to be ugly. Hey, get the sauce. I can promise you that whether or not you bet the Padres's has no impact on their play toast. I promise you that is no impact.

Yeah. Tomato tomato. Good evening everybody and welcome uh welcome. Happy uh Wednesday morning to you all. Um I had a I I'm going to end up giving back like a half a unit or so. I really wanted Cleveland. I got some slack for that in the comments. That one hurt. Uh plus 210 dog scoring seven runs and losing. But I guess the lead story today is what are we doing? Cal Raleigh and Randy Rosena. I mean, I guess Randy got a couple sack flies or a sack fly. But my god, man. Uh Cal Rally, how many times was he up? At least three times with two men on with less than one or with two outs or something like that. Um yeah, that that hurt, Seattle. That hurt. Spoiler alert. I might be going right back, but we're not there yet. Spoon, how was your day?

Uh 32 and one right now. It looks like I'm going to be 33 and one by the end of this. So, uh, probably be given back around a half unit with you.

Wow. Texas are a couple of freaking losers, dude.

I know, dude. And you know what the sad part is? Is I added Texas late because I was like, you know what? I'm Seattle. They're about to catch Seattle. Seattle might win and they're going to need a win and they blew it in the seventh inning. But it's

Real quick, there was a conversation going on in the chat. TV Jones is not fired.

What?

We were joking. He's not in the peace score. He's not fired. He He's a college basketball guy. That's his main thing. Baseball is his secondary. So, it's his time to get prep and he does preview shows o over on his own channel. Once college basketball starts, well, maybe not right away because November college basketball is [ __ ] But once we get into the heart of college basketball, once we get into January, he'll be back over here every day or or most days. Um, but he's a college basketball guy, so it's about time for him to start uh transitioning over. He was not fired and he's not in the Peace Corp. These are rumors.

Yeah. And I uh I used to lean on Andy a lot with college basketball. It'll be Trevor. So a lot of the stuff you hear out of my mouth when Trevor is not on will probably be rammed by Trevor at least. So um yeah, he knows exactly. He knows what he's doing with college basketball. So anyway, I do see him in the comments. I can't see what he's saying, but I don't really care. Marlins on the road in Washington. Yuri Perez. Mitchell Parker. I don't know, man. Spoon, you can kick this away. I I really want to play Miami, but I can't do it at that price.

Yeah, I have a lot of issues trying to back Miami full game with the uh bullpin that they have, but Yuri Perez versus Mitchell Parker is just too much of a starting pitching advantage for me to pass up on. Um I took the Marlins first five here. Paid uh minus 135 for just the money line. I uh I think the Marlins can find a way to get three or four runs off Mitchell Parker in that first five innings. And even if Yuri Perez gives up a run or two, we still get this win home. Um I think this is a really good lineup for him to pitch well against. He's been pretty stout at getting lefties out on the full season. Has a whip under one. I just I'm not trying to pass up fading Mitchell Parker in some shape or form. And I I just trying to stay away from this Miami bullpen as much as I can right now.

Yeah. Um it would be it would only be Miami or pass for me as well. Uh they've been actually Miami's been actually somewhat feas feasible uh offensively on the road. Um not so much versus left-handed pitching, but Mitchell Parker, as TV Jones would say, rolls out of bed and gives up four runs at least over the last couple weeks. So couple of those starts were against Philly. Uh Oakland, another team that's really really good on the road. So you can kind of cut him a little bit of slack, but not really. Uh but yeah, it would only be Miami or pass. Heavy on the pass though. Next game, Mets on the road in Detroit. Clay Holmes, Casey Mai. Mets, another a Mets easy winner today. Um, absolutely killed Detroit. Um, what do you think about this game, Spoon? I I think I kind of lean the over. The weather's not great, though, so it's kind of holding me off.

I was looking at that weather, too. It looked like it would be kind of counterproductive for lefty bats getting a bunch of runs. Um, I go right back to the same thing here. Just I want to isolate the better pitcher in the first five. I want to take uh the Mets minus 104 first five money line. Um, Klay Holmes has gone out there and pitched really well in the majority of his starts this season. He's pitched pretty good on the road. 3.36 RA. That's better than he has at home. Um, I don't think this Detroit lineup is a great matchup for getting runs off him. Um, they've gotten runs off a few guys lately. Waka and Luggo, but other pitchers have been able to pitch pretty well against him. Steven Kolick is not a guy I consider to be elite from the right hand side. He just pitched six innings of one earned run ball versus this team. I think Klay Holmes can do similar and uh Casey M. You talk about rolling out of bed and giving up four runs. The Athletics get five, KC does. Minnesota gets four. Um this is not a guy I'm looking to back right now. And this Mets lineup is just torching every starter they see recently. So, um I I'm going to have to be on the New York Mets first five.

Uh you can put up the over eight and a half for me. Uh it's 105 right now. I just kind of want to

I feel like every single Mets game is 128 now.

I know.

What the hell is going on?

Um so, well, they're scoring a lot of runs, so that helps. But they have they've given up a couple runs a lot of times, but a lot the last two weeks it's been pretty much them scoring the runs. So, um, Casey Meyers has kind of fallen off of a cliff considering what he was doing at the beginning of the season. Um, just really not not nothing impressive, excuse me. Um, I mean, yes, the home starts a little bit better than the away starts. Uh, but at the same time, it was he got pulled in that Arizona game with before the second inning. Gave up three runs to Minnesota in six innings, gave up two runs to the Angels in five innings, uh, and three runs to the Royals in five and two/3. and I do think that this Mets offense is a huge huge step up in class for him. Um, I have no reason to believe that the Mets offense doesn't continue to shine. And then as far as the Tigers are go, I I'm not I think that they can hit up Klay Holmes personally. I disagree with you on that one, Spoon. I I know that the the numbers versus right-handed pitching aren't fantastic. Uh, yeah, Kick pitched well against them, but they got to Waka, they got to Lugo, and they're also a completely different baseball team on the road. So most of those games were I'm sorry they're completely different offense at home. Most of those games were on the road and Klay Holmes really struggles with lefties and I mean Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, San Diego, San Francisco. I mean really not the toughest competition. Again, I don't really love the weather here. That's what's holding me off, but it would only be over for me, but I I don't know if I can actually do it.

Uh someone in the comments asked about Trevor's YouTube channel. It's the Pump Fake Pod. Um and if you like Trevor, his co-host name is Huff. He's exactly like Trevor. Like they're exactly like him, dude. They're like he's in a

New content.

Yeah, they're exactly the same person. Uh so yeah, that that's his show. But it'll also be over here. I'm hoping to get Huff over here uh this winter, too. And Spoon does a ton of college basketball. We got a loaded college basketball crew. It's actually NBA where we're lacking this year.

College basketball this year is gonna be really fun. Yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited. So, because I like to be able to talk a little [ __ ] so I know that you guys can handle it. So, that'll be fun. Anyh who, next game on the board, Texas on the road at Arizona. Jack Lighter, Zack Gallon. I don't understand this price. Um, you can go first, Spoon. I don't I feel like I'm walking into a trap with Texas, maybe, but why are we getting Texas at plus money?

Yeah, I was looking at the plus 120. I think that's off the board now. I think it's 116's the best price with Texas and just trying to figure out why I shouldn't bet it.

Um I get Zack Allen's pitched pretty well in his last two starts, but

I don't really trust him to continue to do that. This Texas lineup's been finding a way to get runs here recently. And uh opposite side, like I do trust Jack Lighter. Um I think he can pitch pretty well versus this Diamondbacks lineup plus 116 on the money line. Uh you can put me up on the board for. can't really find a reason not to do it. Even if uh these starting pitchers are a wash or Diamondbacks have a one-run lead when Gallon leaves, their bullpen still has to come in. And I don't trust these guys. I guess they've been pitching a little better of late. Um 15th in RA the last 30 days, but I I just find I think Texas finds a way to get this game. This is a coin flip game. You're getting a team at plus 116. Probably just take the value.

Yeah. Um it would only be Texas for me as well. I I bet Texas today more of it a number. Their bullpen wasn't in fantastic shape. Um Armstrong had went back toback days. Chris Martin had pitched the day before. That was their top two arms. But all those guys plus Garcia, Monton, all those guys are all rested and available now behind Jack Lighter. Um who I I don't know what to think of Arizona right now. I mean, offensively, offensively, they've been fine, but I mean, pitching wise, it's been a really, really a struggle for them. And yes, Zack Gowen has looked a couple has had a couple decent starts, one on the road, one at home. Uh, the Dodger start seemed like it was like very, very good. I don't know if you continue to get that from him, but again, he's not pitching terribly. So, as much as I would like to come on here and just kind of destroy him, I really can't do it right now. Um, but I will say there is I mean there's a few lefties and lefties with power in that Texas lineup which could cause some trouble for him. But this Texas lineup's been raking on the road and versus right-handed pitching over the last month, not just a couple weeks, over the over a month, uh top five in both those categories and their bullpen has been uh pitching extremely well. So even if Lighter gets in a little bit of trouble, uh with at plus 116, I think that you're getting a little bit better than a coin flip in the later in the later innings, excuse me. So, yeah, it would only be Texas for me. I think I'm going to have to end up pulling the trigger on that just now that that game's final and they didn't have to use any of those bull pit arms. So, uh, next game on the board, hold on. Do you know who that is, Toast?

Yes. Yeah.

Yo, he's he sent me a threeminut breakdown of the Montana Grizzlies game. I'm setting it up. I'm putting on the show. That That man deserves

I know. Kenny Varner. It's just straight every No, dude.

Dude, it's I've got like I swear 50 DMs a day about the Montana Grizzlies. He's so fired up.

It's only Montana Grizzly football. Um I love you, Kenny. I respect the hell out of you. Um Baltimore on the road in San Diego. Kate Povich, Nester Cortez. Uh go ahead, Spoon. Um I don't think you can lay this juice with San Diego right now offensively. I think this is just a little bit too much juice delay with Nester Cortez.

Agree.

I don't I don't really care who the opponent opponent is at this point. Uh, probably the line stops at minus 140. Anything for him being fair price.

Not a big K. Povich guy. Um, I'm looking at the over in this game. I think San Diego can get runs off Povich.

He hasn't uh necessarily been elite. And on the opposite side, I mean, Cortez has shown the ability to pitch pretty well this year, but at the same time, it's Nester Cortez. He only has so many tricks in that bag. And the Orioles offense has not been dead. Just got six runs off Robbie Ray um two starts ago versus a lefty. I think they can get maybe four or five off Netor Cortez if he stays in there, a full six. And

I wouldn't be surprised to see him get chased out of there before that. Uh four or five is probably a little high. I'm sorry, Toast. I don't care. He sucks. You can send his ass to El Paso for all I care.

I haven't got there yet, though.

Yeah, I haven't either. Um anytime those like eight and a halfs at 105, I always just kind of want to wait just to see if an eight pops up, a juiced eight pops up, but 100% agree on the over. Um, not only do I really don't trust Netor in general, um, but I mean it's not like Baltimore, I mean Baltimore is going to have a [ __ ] ton of lefties in that lineup. Holiday, Gunner, Cowser, Carlson. Uh, maybe I'm missing somebody else, but regardless, uh, and they've actually been getting to lefties, not like crazy good numbers, but two runs off of Garrett Crochet in six innings is pretty damn decent for the way that Garrett Crochet pitches. three runs off in six and two/3s off of Fran Valdez. You will take that nine hits, by the way, 10 base runners. They had nine hits versus Ranger Suarez. They had five hits and three runs off of Jesus Lazardo. They saw Matthew Boyd as well. So Robbie Ray you mentioned. So I I mean they've been seeing lefties and they've been hitting them well at at a top pretty like a top 10 rate actually honestly. And then on the road it's even better. Uh and then the only thing that's kind of like holding me off is the Padres's versus Lefties. But Kade Povich does suck. But I mean, the Padres's aren't doing anything. I will give you couple starts versus breaks Blake Snell, couple starts versus Robbie Ray. They got to one got to him once. They got didn't get to him the other time. It would only be over for me. It's going to be a nice day in uh San Diego. I worry I worry I always worry about overs with this San Diego bullpen. I mean, I obviously they can blow up like any other bullpen, and they have over the last couple weeks, but I it's it's also not easy to do it. So anyway, over eight and a half do next game on the board. Dodgers on the road in Pittsburgh. Show Otani after a shellacking in Kersfield. Takes his talents all the way across the country into Pittsburgh against Braxton Ashcraft. Dodgers got spanked up today. I was on the Pirates. Shout out Pirates.

Oh, you won that Pirates bat.

I did. Thank you very much. It was huge for me, especially today. Uh Padre's base is loaded. Um just for the record. Uh anyway, Spoon Dodgers Pirates, your thoughts.

This is a tough game for me. Uh Otani always provides a little bit of tax on the mound that I don't think he necessarily deserves just from the name value, but after the Padres's got or the Pirates got a big win here today, it's hard to write a story where they get it in backtoback days. Especially with Braxton Ashcraft on the mound. Um guy's gone out there his last three times out, pitched over five innings, has only give up one earned run max. But to a Cubs lineup that was really struggling, Colorado and St. Louis. So those are some really subpar lineups in comparison to this Dodgers lineup. We can say that the Dodgers aren't scoring runs, but I mean they're still finding ways to put a lot of runs up on the board against pretty decent pitchers. So, I'm not going to go out there and try to fade him tomorrow. Um, I was looking at an over in this game, but uh I just over eight would be the only play I could get to. I just don't think I'm going to get to the ticket window with it. Uh, I have a play on this game. I am going to back Otani and the Dodgers in a bounceback. Give me the Dodgers first five on the run line. Minus.5 obviously minus 118. Um, okay. So Otani, you're going to look at and say like, "Oh, Otani is really bad against righties." I I guess compared to the lefties, yes. Uh but at the same time, the righties in this Pittsburgh lineup aren't really righties that I really worry about. Um especially like McCutchen, Henry Davis, guys like that towards the end of the lineup. So that's for one. Um, I also feel like the Pirates numbers versus right-handed pitching are a little bit inflated um by getting six runs off of Dustin May and seven runs off of Palante. But Gilito pitched well against them. Michael has pitched really well against them. Sunny Gay pitched really well against them. Uh they got to the rookie McGrevy and then the Colorado games, whatever. But Basset and Sherer pitched well against them as well. I just for me I I think that you have Otani who I mean obviously his last road start was not good in Colorado and the previous one in Cincinnati he was still being kind of worked into the I'm sorry in LA wasn't good either but previous to that I mean it wasn't terrible in Cincinnati he gave up two runs after being worked back. I just think that this is a really good spot against a Pittsburgh lineup that I know plays better at home. There's a reason that I played them today. Uh but Otani is the type of guy that I like to get on a bounceback spot and he hasn't looked good on the road. I think this is a really cheap price to get them. Not to mention the fact that the Dodgers should hit Braxton Ashcraft into another Bolivian. I got I mean, how often can you really count on the Pirates to score eight or whatever, eight or nine runs, whatever it was today. So, I I got I like the bet, but uh I today, but I bet the Dodgers tomorrow.

You like the bet today?

I did because I thought they could get to freaking Kershaw. I mean, you got if but but again, that felt lucky that I mean, if Tay Oscar Hernandez was just like an average right fielder, he probably catches that ball in the first inning. At least doesn't let it get behind him. And then what are we looking at? But anyh who,

Did you see uh Scoop getting flamed on Twitter? Oh, you you were the one that showed me.

Of course I did.

It was amazing.

That was awesome.

Oh, Scoop. It was so funny. He was mad about Stanton playing in left field and they just torched him on John Boy Twitter.

Like, you're the type of Yankees fan that makes everyone hate you. was my favorite one. I had to make the extra long screenshot.

So, um, also I saw a couple comments about my kicking props debating on Aubrey Thursday night, but I did break down week one in the Discord a little bit. Couple guy couple ones. I'm looking at like four or five of them.

No one gives a [ __ ] about kicker props.

No, I'm just I'm just looking at the comments. That's all I'm saying. I put some work in today. Why don't you guys all take a look? Anyway,

Work.

I did. I'm dead serious. I put like seven things in the Discord. Blue Jays on the road in Cincinnati, Shane Beaver, Zack Latell. If you bet the Blue Jays today, boy did you get lucky. You should have bought a scratch ticket on your way home. It didn't end up being as easy as you would think, but toh go from Lolo to Barlo aka a bullpen day is uh got to be feel pretty sweet. Weren't you on the Jace?

I was. That uh closed great. That was such a roller coaster of a ride of a game.

They got it out.

What uh what is your thoughts on this one? I kind of want to take Cincinnati, man.

I'm not a big Latell guy um at this point. Like I backed him a quite a few times this season. Seems like he gives up the home run ball uh pretty easily. I think these Jays uh like hitting in this park. I I could see the Jays putting a crooked number up on him early and just really regretting it. I don't really want to lay this price with Bieber, but him versus the Reds. Um, he's looked really sharp in his first two starts out. Six innings pitched versus Miami, five and a third versus Milwaukee. Uh, just two earned runs to Milwaukee, one to Miami. Those are good starts. That Milwaukee lineup is uh head and shoulders above where Cincinnati is right now. I think he could probably go out there and give us another solid start. I'm not willing to pay this price though for it on the money line. um if this was closer to like minus 130 um it would be bettable. But right here I think there is a little bit of value associated with Cincinnati. But their bullpen doesn't give me a lot of faith either. Um I was kind of looking at an over with this uh game or maybe just a Blue Jays team total over. Um seems like they've been able to get to this number pretty easily and uh versus Latell and this bullpen. I don't see any way the Blue Jays don't put put up four or five runs.

So, you can put up Cincinnati for me. Um, I don't really love the spot that Toronto's in as far as their bullpen is concerned. Uh, Sir Anthony Dominguez is going to be three of the last four days. Uh, Louis Varlin is going to be two of the last three days. They used Eric Lowour, which is obviously one of their long relievers. They used Tate. So they I mean they're going to get their middle guys like Nance and Little back and maybe a little Yario Rodriguez, but the reason I bring that up is that I I do truly believe that Shane Bieber on the road in Cincinnati is not a great spot for him. I know that he's looked good uh in his first two starts coming back, but that was a away start in Miami and a home start in Toronto, which roof closed or not, that's I'm not really I mean I guess if the roof's open and it's 90 degrees out, great. That you can add a couple runs, but as far as those two starts are concerned, he hasn't seen a runcoring environment like he's going to see in Cincinnati tomorrow. Um and I do think that that matters because I I am a Latell guy. Um I don't know what to think. He didn't really look good in on away start in Cincinnati. Obviously he plays for the Cincinnati now uh when he uh played for the Rays. Um and then I mean but seven innings, three runs against the Cardinals. I mean his last time out obviously the Cardinals and Blue Jays are completely different but um and then a decent start against Milwaukee as well. So, I just as long as he just doesn't get absolutely shelled, I think the Reds can stay in this game because even though it was a bullpen game for the Reds today, they didn't use any of their major arms. So you're still going to have whether you like him or not, you're still going to have uh Pagan, you're still going to have Centian on rest, you're still going to have Nick Martinez on rest. So between those, Nick Martinez is capable of going a couple innings. So I just feel like they can piece that together. I just feel like this is a really big price uh for Toronto that I don't really know if it's warranted with Bieber on the mound and bullpen questions. So you can put Cincinnati up for me. I think I'm going to wait though because people like to bet Toronto. So I'm just going to wait and see what it does. Next game on the board, Cleveland on the road in Boston. Joey Kantio, Dustin May, congratulations, Squirrel. Congratulations. Comments, you got it. I will get you next time. I will get you next time. Spoon, your thoughts on this one with Kio and May. I Man, Dustin May, really hard to figure out this guy.

Uh, yeah, I've seen the Boston pitcher kind of bounce around. I saw Bernardino at one point. I saw May. Um, and I'm not really sure who's going to be out there for them at this point. I guess I'm just looking at the over. Um, Logan Allen has had a couple bad starts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a third bad start in a row from him. Um, there's been points this season where he looked pretty reliable, but lately versus anything that resembles a decent offense, uh, they've been putting up a lot of crooked numbers on them. So, I think Boston could follow suit. Um, it it's tough without knowing exactly who the pitcher is going to be for the Red Sox, but Dustin May obviously doesn't give me any confidence. I think even Cleveland can get runs off him, so put me up for the over, but I I don't have an actual bet in this game.

Um, yeah, you could just put up you can just put up Cleveland for me. I'm not going to be betting this game, but there's just too many questions for me with this Boston pitching staff. And I Yeah, I just there's just too many questions on the Boston side for me. But I won't be betting that game. Next game on the board, Seattle on the road in Tampa Bay, George Kirby, Adrien Hower. God, Alisa Rice sucks. Um Padres's didn't even get anything with that bases loaded. Absolutely terrible.

Two big bats in a row. Last night he struck out to end the game. Uh, so out of character for that guy.

Yeah. Uh, yeah. This is not good for the Padres's. Not good. Anyway, what are your thoughts on Kirby versus Adrien Hower? Um, I think I have to bet. I I already bet Seattle. Um, isolated it to the first five. Um, I'm not in love with Tampa Bay's bullpen. So, I spent some time looking at that to see uh maybe if I wanted to make this a full game bet, but I took the uh first five with the Mariners minus 135. Um, George Kirby, he's struggled at points this season. Came back from injury a little late. Um but recently like we go back his last seven games they've all been quality starts really nice except for one blow up on the road versus the New York Mets and uh they really got to him. Seven earned runs didn't make it out of the fifth inning but outside of that he's pitched really well and uh you can't make that same case for Hower here. Um two of his last four starts giving up four runs to pretty subpar lineups in St. Louis. Seattle really hasn't been hitting anybody right before that gave up five to the Angels. Crooked innings to Pittsburgh and Chicago. Um I think Seattle after already seeing this guy putting up runs on him in that pitcher friendly park. Uh now go to a hitter friendly park. I I just think they get runs off him. Um you get the same exact price at this point between the first five and the uh full game. And if it's just Kirby and Hower that I get to isolate and I don't have to worry about which arms come in and who could be tipping pitches in this game, I feel a lot more comfortable. So, uh, I isolated there. I I'm not scared that Seattle, uh, didn't win this game today. I I think they come back tomorrow, get a W, but I'm just going to take that first five.

Uh, Seattle money line for me minus 135. Um, couple things here. Uh, for me, um I've been on this show many times. George Curry till I effing die. This is me kind of just backing my guy. Got shelled against the Mets, which the Mets have been shelling everybody. But besides that, he's been pitching well for a month now. I feel like we're finally starting to see the George Kirby that we all know and love. Um the walks are still a little bit of an issue, which is very unGeorge Kirby like, but I can live with it. Um, at the same time, I think that he mentioned on it, you have Hower versus a whole bunch of lefties in the Seattle lineup. I mean, you're going to have probably six lefty bats in that Seattle lineup tomorrow. Um, even guys like at the bottom like Cole Young who got I mean, couple really I'm not talking like TV Jones calls. I'm talking like really bad calls. Uh, which got his manager thrown out. U, I think he can bounce back tomorrow. Kenzone got kicked out today for nothing. And those are both lefty bats. There's just a lot of things offensively that I like for Seattle tomorrow because offensively they haven't been terrible on the road. It hasn't been great, but with all those lefty bats, I think they're capable. And then as far as the bullpens are concerned, Seattle didn't use all their main guys. So I I did want to kind of focus on those bullpens because they didn't use um Nunos, they didn't use Brash. Uh and then Bazardo worked, but he only went six pitches pitches, excuse me. So, they're going to have three of the top four bullpens in that Seattle bullpen all rested and ready to go. Uh Uketa who's like their setup man for Tampa Bay, he's going to be two of the last three days. But then Seattle saw a lot of those guys like four other guys today out of that bullpen. So um again, there's just too many little things for me not to like about Seattle. I don't I'm not in love with the price. I will say that. Uh, but I do think that Seattle pulls themselves off the mat tomorrow and gets a win. Next game on the board, White Socks versus the Twins. Should have just played the over. We knew it was freaking I mean the total was nine. It moved up to nine and a half. I mean, free is air. Free is freaking air. Um Gomez on the bump versus Zebie Matthews. Uh I I feel the same way as I have been. Either over or the White Socks. Like the Twins shouldn't be laying this type of juice versus anybody. I I get that the White Socks are really bad baseball team. Uh but they've actually shown I mean both of these teams have shown signs of life offensively, but especially the White Socks, they've been shown signs of life for us for a while now. So it again, in what world are the Twins minus 170 favorites, even with Joe Ryan on the mound, let alone Zebie Matthews. So you could put the White Socks up for me. I'm not going to bet it, but curious to hear your thoughts, Spoon.

I agree on that same side. Zebie Matthews just saw this White Sox team didn't make it out of the fifth inning. Gave up 11 base runners, uh, four earned runs. Um, wouldn't be completely out of left field for him to come out and bounce back with a good start. But I think this White Sox team can get some runs off him. Gomez has looked very serviceable as a starter so far in the major leagues. Already pitched uh five innings versus this Twins team. Didn't give up a run. Um, maybe that trend uh reverses, then the Twins find a way to get to him. But I think this is just way too much uh juice to be laying with this Twins team. I don't trust that bullpin anymore. They lost all their better arms. Uh, last 14 days they're 28th in RA. Last 30 days they're 23rd in RA. White Sox bullpin's nothing to brag about, but I I just think if you can get plus 150 with a game that's maybe a slightly weighted coin flip, you you take that plus 150 here. Um Sebie Matthews does not demand this price in my book.

Agreed. Next, excuse me. Next game on the board, Braves on the road in Chicago. Bryce Elder, Cade Horton, the phenomenon Kate Horton. D Cubbies, take it away, Spoon.

Um, yeah, I had a Cubs first five today, uh, minus a half. That was a little bit of a sweat. They went up 40, gave up, uh, three solo shots, I think. Just kind of scary baseball. They won that game four to three. Um bullpen looked pretty decent in the game. Um Cubs sitting around minus 150 right now. I looked at laying a minus one in the full game. I have a lot of faith in Kate Horton. I was

Quick question even is Tucker going to play?

Tucker's out tomorrow. He will not play. Um the line kind of dropped. Um also on the Braves side, I believe Proar is um going to be out tomorrow as well. Um, so a few bats out of this lineup. I was kind of looking at the under just missing those uh bats immediately. Not the most hitter friendly weather here tomorrow at all, but Bryce Elders on the mound and he can cook an under just completely by himself. So I was looking at Cubs minus one, Cubs money line. He can put me on the board for the minus 150. Um, I think uh Kate Horton comes out there pitches pretty well. Um, even without Tucker, PCA had the day off. you uh have other bats inserted into this lineup when you get to see a righty that you don't always see versus lefties. So, I think the Cubs will be fine. Still find ways to get runs off Bryce Elder.

Um I guess I probably wouldn't uh I can't argue the Cubs. It would only be under or pass for me. Uh Kate Horton continues to impress. Uh sometimes I wonder how he does it, but I mean this kid's just been absolutely fantastic. Uh you can kind of look at who he's pitched against a little bit, but really honestly I mean he continues to go out there and give you at least five and two/3 pretty much every time he goes out there of one-run baseball if not better. So uh it's really hard to poke holes at him. But Atlanta offensively has been pretty really actually pretty damn good. Not pretty really good. Pretty damn good on the road. Not so much versus right-handed pitching. They have a couple like blow up games that makes our numbers look a little bit better, but um feasible. Obviously, ProAR being out isn't great cuz he's been raking, especially in the second half of the season. Um and I mean, I don't want to be the one to like do this again with a random ass bump, but I mean, isn't Bryce Elder pitching kind of decent? I mean, over his last what, I don't know, six starts, he has two blowups and four decent ones. um the blowups at home against the White Socks and at home against uh the um Marlins. But on the road against the Mets, seven innings, two runs. At home against the Mets, six innings, two runs. On the road in Philadelphia, seven innings, one run. On the road at Cincinnati, six innings, six and two/3, two runs. And that was on the first of last month. So, again, it's not that Bryce Elder's been super super bad. Uh this Cubs lineup is kind of hit or miss. They've hit some righties up. Those righties being Spencer Strider, who's terrible, Tanner Gordon, McCabe Brown, uh, Hermmon Marquez, Sensitella, Verlander, Hrix, Logan Webb, Victor Maderos. Uh, yeah, under eight and a half for me. Next game on the board, Philadelphia on the road in Milwaukee. Aaron Nola, Jose Quintana, what are your thoughts on this one? I do have a bet in this game, but I'm not going to tell you what it is. We'll see if we're in lock step.

I uh I took the over eight and a half minus 115.

Phillies. This is Phillies

Winner.

So, I went back back and forth with the uh side here. It It's hard to uh not always look at the Brewers. This team just has no quitting them. It seems like they put up three or four runs no matter who's on the mound and uh if not more than that. And Aaron Nola is on the mound. This guy has looked very shaky in his first few starts back in the major leagues, giving up six earned runs, two earned runs, and four earned runs. Um, he's given up quite a few hits in all these games. I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee get him out of there before the sixth inning even starts and uh have a really good start to this over. And on the opposite side, uh, Kintana struggles more with righties than he does lefties. I always expect those lefty bats to show up for this Philly lineup no matter what. Um I think this is a spot where we don't really sweat this over. Um from a side I think I probably lean Brewers, not Phillies, but I I think we just get a bunch of runs in this game.

Uh yeah, I've already played the over eight and a half as well. I sent it out. Um, Quintana has been decent, but I think he's just a really big candidate for the regression monster to catch up with him. We started to see it his last home start u against Arizona where he only made it three and two/3 and gave up six hits. So, he had been decent, but uh the Phillies have been pretty damn decent all year long versus left-handed pitching. I again, I will give you that they haven't been great on the road in general. Uh, but versus left-handed pitching, they've been just fine. And like he talked about, this Milwaukee team at home has been an absolute juggernaut, especially over the last two months or whatever it's been. Um, and I also think that this is a huge step up in class for Aaron as well. This is going to be his what, fourth start back. He got to face Washington twice. I mean, that's really not that hard of a lineup to navigate. And then he got Atlanta and he didn't really look good against Atlanta. He had three walks in that game. Um, it could have been a lot worse than the four runs that he gave up. So, um, I think we're going to have the roof open tomorrow. I think it's going to be a great day. I think both of these bullpens are vulnerable at times to say the least. Uh obviously that we see a whole bunch of nines already coming up, but yeah, over eight and a half. I would play over nine as well. I don't love it as much obviously because uh there's a obviously eight and a half is a better number, but uh I I feel like there's going to be a lot of runs here tomorrow. Next game on the board, Angels on the road in Kansas City. I don't know who we're getting for the Angels uh tomorrow for sure. Do you know Spoon off the top of your head? I know that we have a graphic for Dana, but I don't know if that was actually for sure.

Yeah, Kaden Dana is going to make the start for them.

I thought so.

20 uh 21 year old out of Triple A. Um hasn't looked super sharp, but it's the PCL, so it's kind of always hard to uh judge those statistics. Uh two games ago, he had a start with 13 strikeouts. that's the a really an outlier in his season, but maybe it's a sign of things to come that they kind of found something there. Didn't p pitch deep into the next game. Maybe they knew they wanted to bring him up into the major leagues. Um I'm not sold on this guy. Uh just looking at his statistics, his fast ball comes in at like 94 miles an hour. Nothing looks overpowering or super dominating to me. Um I hopped on this Kansas City line as as soon as it popped out at like minus 155. I built a minus one with it to uh take it down to minus 112.

Um I think Ryan Ber is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball right now. I think he can go out and pitch really well versus this really right-hand dominant Angels lineup. Struggles a bit more with lefties, but I mean his whip wobba, everything across the board, it's just really elite. Not a guy I'm looking to fade in any fashion. and anybody making their first start in the major leagues, it's always really tough. Um, I don't think this is a spot where this is a guy has really earned it. It's just they're kind of trying to see what they have out of their AAA bullpen arms right now. They brought another guy from AAA up to start today or double A to start today. So, um, I think Kansas City takes advantage of that young pitcher and, uh, gets a bunch of runs. Kansas City's bullpen is in a good spot and the Angels really is not. Kenley Jansen's gone now like three or four nights. So even if they somehow find themselves in a position to win, you're going to have a really tired Kenley Jansen out there.

Uh yeah, I I couldn't agree more. I really can't add anything any if you can get anything under like 160 165 with the Royals. If you want to build your minus ones or whatever, we go have it. I just wanted to say the only thing I can add is that Burger is an absolute stud at home or on the road. The competition hasn't been great. Uh but the Angels aren't great either. You're not going to have Mike Trout in that lineup for sure. Uh man, I just hope that he can get healthy at this point. It's just ridiculous. It sucks. But uh this Burger Kid was a really big pickup for the Royals. Um and especially after dropping that game today, they really need that game. So uh yeah, Royals up. I had them circled. It was only open on like FanDuel when I looked like an hour ago. So anyway, next game on the board, Oakland on the road in St. Louis. Jeffrey Springs. Matthew Liberator. Man, I don't know, man. Um, I thought the A's would be a really good bet today. Um, they didn't score anything off of Michael. You never know when that guy's just gonna pitch a gem. I didn't bet them. So, um, what are your thoughts on this one? I I feel like this rinse and repeat. I just again, you're getting the athletics at a decent price. I know they lost today, but if you bet them both days, you'd still be up money.

I uh trying to figure out why not to take Oakland right now. Uh, Romero pitched today for the Cardinals. That's their de facto closer right now. Riley O'Brien, one of their setup arms. He's currently injured, will not be available. They've shut him down from throwing and haven't replaced this roster spot yet. Um, I'm not in love with this Cardinals bullpen, especially with Hell's League gone. Uh, we're talking about their closer who's going to have to throw backtoback days versus this athletics lineup who's been really impressive at getting to any bullpens, any

Uh, pitcher in general. Um, they had a really bad day today, so I just expect them to get more runs tomorrow. My question comes in with the Cardinals' bats. Um, they've been really easy to fade when we've been seeing this train of right-handed pitching, but they have been getting to the lefties they've seen. Um, it's been a while since they've seen lefties. Uh, the 30th, the 25th, the 16th, the 13th. So they've only seen like four in the past three or four weeks now. And, uh, they got to them: Max Fried, Andrew Heaney, and Andrew Abbott. Um, he knew they got out of there before in innings pitched. Got five earned runs off him. That guy got DFAD. No surprise. Max Fried looked really bad versus the Cardinals. Um, he's a pretty good pitcher. He, he showed right after that that he could pitch well. I don't know what to make of it. He was kind of going through a drought right there, but getting two earned runs off Andrew Abbott isn't an easy task at this point. So, I think maybe the Cardinals can get a little bit off Jeffrey Springs, but once we get back to the bullpens, um, not in love with the Athletics' arms, but everybody's rested, uh, ready to go. I, I want to take the Athletics plus money. Um, I watched the game today just to see what Severino was like. I couldn't end up pulling the trigger, but I, I think I want to get be on the Athletics tomorrow.

>> Uh, yeah, you can get the Athletics still on Fanduel plus 100. That will be my bet. Um, I just wanted to talk. Okay, the Cardinals versus lefties and Jeffrey Springs on the road are my two points. The Cardinals versus lefties look decent, but I, I think they got Max Fried before he got right. I don't really care that they got to Gamber and Heaney personally. Uh, the Imanaga and Boyd, I guess the Boyd one was pretty impressive. Imanaga, it is what it is. But, so yes, their numbers as far as the Cardinals versus left-handed pitching are decent, but you can definitely poke holes in them. But what I wanted to talk about is Jeffrey Springs on the road this year. A lot, I mean, let's just, I, he's had what, one bad start on the road, I think, since May 30th, which he went into Toronto and got absolutely shelled. Since then, uh, decent start against the Angels on the road, at the Royals on the road, at the Tigers on the road, at the Rays. Uh, Cleveland got to him, so that's a bad one. On the 20th, excuse me, uh, on the road to Houston, on the road to Washington, on the road to Seattle. He's been absolutely fantastic. So, with a rested bullpen behind him and a Cardinal bullpen that's not really in a great spot, I'm 100% with you. Ace up. Next game that.

>> I already did. I just, I just sent it in. Um, next game on the board, Will Warren, Yankees on the road in Houston. Will Warren on the mound for the Yankees. Jason Alexander on the road for the Astros. Had a full unit on the Yankees today. Sweat-free, boys. Sweat-free. Spoon. Can they do it again tomorrow? I think so.

>> Yeah, it's, it's tough to, uh, try to paint a picture. Will where Will Warren has a really bad game here. A guy that struggles with lefties, you don't have to worry about, but maybe two or three tops in this Houston lineup right now. Um, right-handers versus the Astros recently have been dominant. We look at their last 10 starts, uh, eight of them, the pitchers given up less than two earned runs. They've all gone into the sixth or seventh inning. Um, Dean Kremer and Brandon Young both had little blow-ups there for six earned runs and seven earned runs. But, um, we're talking about guys like Jose Soriano, Kyle Hendricks, Chase Dolander, Tanner Gordon, Charlie Morton, uh, like all pitching very well versus this Astros lineup. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see Will Warren go out there and pitch really well. Uh, Jason Alexander already saw this New York Yankees team earlier in New York. Uh, I think it was Castanza bobblehead night.

>> He pitched well in that, going six innings pitched, zero earned runs. Um, I, I think he could come out here and pitch well versus this Yankees lineup. I was kind of looking at an under in this game, but just the way the Yankees' bats have been, uh, swinging are going to keep me off that. Um, as much as I'd like to think Jason Alexander has another really good game versus the Yankees, he struggles with lefties. And, uh, the Yankees can really put a bunch of lefties in that lineup in between some of their really, uh, best bats and Stanton and Judge. So, you know, those guys are always going to show up, especially with the Crawford boxes right there. Um, I lean under, but the Yankees lineup's just going to scare me off it.

>> Uh, Yankees full send again. This price makes absolutely no sense to me. Um, the Yankees are just absolutely destroying everybody they see that has, I mean, really that's pitching against them. It doesn't matter if it's left or right-handed. Um, we saw Framber today, who's off, who's obviously a lefty. Um, regardless of what the drama was with him and Gausman and not stepping off and throwing it on purpose the next pitch, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It doesn't matter. The grand slam was before all of that. And, and regardless of that, they still put up another run. So, they put up a seven spot today. Um, but the thing for me, and he touched on it, is that you have Will Warren on the road, which is not a spot that's been great to us, but his road ERA isn't great, but the WHIP is good and the xFIP is good. So, maybe he's gotten a little bit unlucky. And like he touched, like Spoon touched on, the Astros versus right-handed pitching hasn't been great. And listen to the names on the list: Jose Soriano, Kyle Hendricks, Chase Dolander, Tanner Gordon, Dean Kremer, Brandon Young, Charlie Morton, Jack Flaherty, Troy Morton. Uh, he was only one inning, so forget that. But regardless, it's not like they're seeing anybody good. So, for all the road woes that Will Warren has had, you have a lineup full of right-handed bats that he should have success against. You can pitch around Yordan Alvarez if you have to, and if Jesus Sanchez beats you, so be it. But the Yankees didn't have to use anybody in their bullpen. So, they have a full rested bullpen behind Will Warren tomorrow as well. Uh, I, this should close around 140 or so. This, this price is absolutely ridiculous as it lays. Uh, as it was today, though, so we'll see what happens.

>> Bad bet. Bad.

>> Was yesterday too. Next game on the board, Giants on the road in Colorado. Robbie Ray, German Marquez. Uh, same thing I said yesterday, just Giants minus one and a half. They're playing really good baseball right now. They won seven to four today and they didn't have Matt Chapman and Wilmer Flores for, I think, the whole game. So, um, unless you can find a reason to bet Colorado, it would be, uh, Giants minus one and a half for me.

>> Um, who came in and pitched the bulk relief, wasn't it Marquez for Colorado today? Because, uh, they had that whole, um, shuffle up in the first inning.

>> No, it was, it was the other goat, Senzatella.

>> Senzatella pitched. Um, this game has a lot of question marks. I don't think anybody's going to get suspended from that whole ordeal. Um, I didn't see fists thrown or anything like that, but, uh, benches cleared, everybody ran into the infield. It was a little baseball, whatever you want to call it.

>> Scuffle.

>> Scuffle. I could see the Rockies getting live after that here tomorrow. Um, step up. They pitched pretty well for the rest of that game. Got away from him towards the end, but Robbie Ray, three of his last four starts out, giving up three earned runs, four earned runs, six earned runs, not to the best lineups. Um, Baltimore, I mean, I guess they're hitting pretty well. Milwaukee and San Diego, but I, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies get some runs up on the board. German Marquez, um, is the big question mark for me. I think even the Giants probably can get to him recently now versus right-handers. The Giants are just tattooing everybody. Six off Ray, seven off Kremer, seven off Sugano, six off Dolander. So, I guess I'm here looking at an over in this game, but not something I'm rushing to the window with. Um, would like to see that everybody's in the lineup for the Giants tomorrow. Yeah.

>> Um, I, I didn't bet the Giants today. I'm not going to bet them either, but I will say, um, I do think that the Giants still kill him, but, um, Robbie Ray doesn't have the best history in Colorado. One start this year where he gave up four runs in four innings, but another start wasn't like four or five years ago. So, whatever. Um, but the Rockies have this, will be the third time the Rockies have seen him. So, that's, that's kind of nice. But Marquez is just so damn bad. I, again, I don't think it really matters. San Francisco beat him today with the B team. Uh, and they had a much better starting pitcher on the mound in Freeland, regard. They're all bad, but he's better than Marquez, but whatever. So, it'll be only Giants for me.

>> All right.

>> Uh, go ahead, K.

>> Oh, no. I was just going to say, uh, we're talking NFL. Get the hell out of here.

>> Have a good night, y'all.

>> Good luck tomorrow, guys.

>> All right, we are talking NFL for the first time this year. Got Scott Raichell on. Uh, works with the, uh, SGPN with Moneyline Mack over there and Sean Green and all those guys. Uh, so he's a member of that group. Scott, want to, uh, introduce yourself? What, uh, where can they find your shows and stuff?

>> Yeah, so first of all, Scott Rael, first time on the show. Thanks for having me, of course. Uh, but point is, you can find me on SGPN doing a bunch of shows. Doing an NFL prop show with Adam Rosenberg. Also doing the MLB Gambling Podcast.

>> You, Oh, Rosenberg. I was just talking to him. Yeah. Cool.

>> Yeah. So, we do the, we do the MLB prop show a couple times a week. Doing an NFL show as well for props there. Also, the NBA show, the WNBA show, the tennis show, bunch of podcasts on the network. Find all my stuff for free on Twitter at Rice Show Radio. But, of course, we got the NFL coming up and I'm excited to be here.

>> Yeah. And, um, so the way I'm doing it this year is I'm letting the guests pick which games they want to talk about. And this is the list we got here. We're starting off with the first one, Cowboys, Eagles. So, what, uh, what are your thoughts? I know I got a pick graphic here. Eagles first half, it looks like. Yeah. So, the spread for the full game keeps going up. Now it's at 8 and a half. You are crossing some key numbers there. I think they still cover the full game spread, but I do think that they're going to start off pretty strong in their first game here. You're looking at last season and the Eagles were a very good first half team, ranked sixth in first half points per game. Cowboys not so much. They ranked 21st. Yes, Dak was injured for part of it, but still the Cowboys first half defense was especially horrible. That was when Parsons was actually on the team. So, defensively in the first half, Eagles ranked second in the league in first half points allowed per game. Cowboys ranked 28th. Cowboys also have a new coach in Brian Schottenheimer who has never been the head coach of a game in his entire career at any level. So, I wonder how quickly he's going to adjust to the NFL lifestyle. Of course, the Eagles got most of the coaching staff back. I think it's a good spot for the Eagles to jump on their rivals early. And the Cowboys, of course, defensively were not great last season anyway. Now, Parsons not there. The Eagles offense with Hurts, with Smith, with Brown, with Barkley, you know the drill with that offensive line. So many weapons that they have available to them. I think three and a half is just too short for a first half number for a team that has been very good early in games, especially at home. Give me the Eagles first half minus three and a half and -115.

>> Yeah, I mean, it's tough to argue with that and, and I'm not even going to talk about why, what, like where the Eagles have the advantages in this game because I feel like most of the viewers are already going to know that. You just went through some of them. I, I feel like they're already going to know. Um, so I'm going to try to play devil's advocate and point out some, some holes here if you're looking to get to Dallas. But again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I'm not saying necessarily this is why you should go place a bet on Dallas. Um, I have a feeling that the Cowboys offense is going to be pretty good. Uh, I, there's some concerns on this side of the ball as well. One thing Dak Prescott has shown us over the years is when he's healthy, the offense is going to score points. I mean, there's been several years where I have doubted, oh, this is the year the Cowboys offense falls off. Dak Prescott's not that good. And then he ends up putting up monster numbers. So, Dak Prescott being healthy with those two wide receivers just makes me think they're going to be able to score points. Now, some pushback there. Dak Prescott was healthy for the first eight games last year and the offense didn't look all that great at all. 21.4 points per game. Actually, the success rate in yards per play looked all right, but the, the Cowboys offense didn't exactly look electric with Dak Prescott last year before getting injured. Um, also, there's the offensive line concerns. Zack Martin is no longer there. He's been there for two decades, it feels like. Um, they're going to try to replace him with a rookie, Tyler Biadasz. Uh, the, the offensive tackle's kind of shaky for Dallas. I mean, you got Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe, and Tyler Biadasz in the middle. So, they might have a good interior offensive line, but couple question marks at tackle with Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele. But, but still, as a whole, I do think, like I said before, the Cowboys offense will be able to score points this year. Um, obviously, Dak Prescott under pressure, uh, it's just not what it used to be. He, it doesn't seem to have the same mobility that he had as a younger quarterback. Uh, we've seen it, saw it early last year. We've seen it the last few years with Dak. His mobility is kind of, uh, trending downwards. Um, now the good news is the Eagles defense is not the same. This is still going to be an elite defense. And if you're an Eagles fan, relax. I'm not saying like the Eagles defense is falling off. I'm just saying for the first game, there are pieces missing from this defense. Uh, I'll pull a graphic up on the screen actually in after the fact. Um, but Nico Dean is going to miss the opener. Brandon Graham's gone. Milton Williams is gone. Josh Sweat's gone. Darius Slay's gone. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is gone. So, there's a lot of pieces from this Eagles defense gone. They brought in Adoree Jackson and, and a couple of the pieces on the defensive line. Nolan Smith Jr., uh, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr. Like I said, there's a couple pieces that played a shitload last year. So, it's not like all they're starting from scratch or anything. Um, they also brought in just brought in Marcus Epps and then another corner from the Raiders too. What's his, forget his name. Um, so, they got pieces. I'm just saying the first game of the year, Super Bowl hangover with new pieces on the defense. I do think Dak Prescott's capable of getting the ball in the end zone a few times. Keep in mind, Dak has cooked on Philly his last five games against Philadelphia. He's completing over 71% of his passes, 305 yards per game, 16 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating over 127. So that's cooked on the Eagles. Uh, but on the other side of the ball, like you said, like we're the, the Cowboys defense, man. Uh, 28th in yards per play last year. I will say I think, um, because the, the Micah Parsons news was so polarizing and it was talked about everywhere that the NFL is like that. It's such a soap opera. And, uh, that was the lead story there for a couple weeks. I think maybe the narrative it's kind of being painted out as like, oh, the Cowboys elite defense lost these elite pieces and it's like, dude, this defense sucked last year. Uh, this is a bad defense and some of the pieces they lost. I mean, DeMarcus Lawrence, he hasn't played since week four. He was out for the year. Michael Parsons wasn't even healthy last year. He missed five or six games, was banged up in a couple also. Uh, Trevon Diggs was injured last year. So, you look at the, the pieces the Cowboys lost and they're devastating, but if we're comparing it just to last year's defense, I, I think they might be better than last year. Keep in mind, they were terrible last year defensively and they're replacing linebackers like, "Oh, Eric Kendricks is gone." Who's to say Jack Campbell can't be a better piece at linebacker than Eric Kendricks? Kenny Clark is an upgrade in the middle. I think the Cowboys will be better against the run. Certainly, the pass rush takes a hit. Although Sam Williams comes back from injury, too. I like Sam Williams. I thought that was a great draft pick. You don't know who that is. Second round pick for the Cowboys. Kind of was coming into his own in 2023. Missed all of last year with an injury. Uh, so that's an edge rusher that could take DeMarcus Lawrence's spot. I don't think my overall sense with the Cowboys defense is I don't think it's that bad. I think it actually might be better than last year's. Last year's was terrible. As a whole, it's tough to argue against the Eagles blowing them out here. I'm not going to make the same mistake I did with week one in college football and just place all these bets because I'm excited. Um, obviously, like you had mentioned, I'm real into baseball. So, by the time I start looking at the NFL, like it's tough to to look at these markets and be like, "Oh, there's, I'm finding things that everyone's missed the last few, uh, months." So, I, I have a bet on the Cowboys plus 7. I placed it forever ago. I, it's obviously a terrible bet. I'm just going to rock it out. Root for the Cowboys to cover, root for a good game. Um, but yeah, it's, as far as on paper, it's tough to argue against the Eagles winning comfortably. I'll say that.

>> The last point I'll make though is you mentioned the offensive line without Zack Martin. I have to mention the other injuries they have to that unit because it's been a pretty messy preseason for the Cowboys offensive line. So, Robert Jones had a neck fracture, he's done for the year. A knee fracture for starting left tackle Tyron Smith, which is also a problem. And you're also looking at the backup center in Brock Hoffman or Hoffman who ended up having an ankle sprain. So besides just Martin, they might be using multiple replacements on that line. And that's probably not the matchup you want for week one when you have a decimated offensive line against this Eagles defensive line. With all those injuries and Martin, of course, not being there, I just wonder if Dak will have enough time in the pocket to actually dissect this defense. You mentioned his numbers against the Eagles. That is true. But with the actual, once again, injuries to the O-line, it could be problematic for Dak in this game.

>> Yeah, and the Eagles, I, I just, I forgot this graphic at the bottom. The Eagles offense in their two games against Dallas last year, 37 and a half points per game, 6.6 yards per play. Philadelphia did not have problems moving the ball on Dallas last year. Let's go ahead and move on to the next game. Las Vegas, New England. This was a fun one to take a look at. Um, so I was looking at this one. You, you put it on the list, so I wanted to make sure I was prepared. This is a fun one. So, uh, I, I saw the pick sent. New England minus two and a half. Take it away. I can't say I disagree with that, by the way.

>> Yeah. So, first things first, I do tend to like the fade West Coast teams traveling East Coast as a common theme there for travel. So, I do think it's a good spot for New England. But you're looking at the actual matchup in itself and even though the Patriots had a pretty rough season last year, some bright spots, mostly Drake May. They did improve the actual roster during the offseason in free agency, adding Landry, they added Stefon Diggs, added Moses, the O-line, they added Carlton Davis. And the Raiders, I thought, had an okay offseason. I think it was that amazing. Of course, they brought in Pete Carroll. They have Geno Smith as a quarterback. Now they have Moss as a backup running back. Jacobs, of course, the phenomenal running back out of Boise State, Chandler, etc. New England, I just think is a better team on paper. I think you're looking at the overall roster and the depth that they have, the fact that they're at home in this game. And whether it is overrated or not in terms of the expectations here for this roster, I do think they're a deeper team than the Raiders. So, I think that they have the better roster. The fact that they're at home, West Coast team traveling East. We know Geno can be good at times. He also can be turnover-prone at other times. So, which one are we going to get? We're not really sure for this game. But I do think that two and a half feels pretty short for a New England team with some optimism going into the year. They got Vrabel as well as their coach. I think that most people like him too. So, I do think New England should be a bigger favorite personally. You could argue that once again it should be three and a half, crossing a key number there. Two and a half though does feel short for a home team against a West Coast team traveling East. I'll take New England minus two and a half.

>> Yeah, I, I think there should be a flat three personally. Under a field goal would have to be New England and Foxboro. Um, yeah, I, I, I would, I'm going to put the over up because that's the way I'd go here.

>> Um, I would agree with New England as far as a side. Um, couple questions I have in terms of the total here at, oh, this says 42 and a half. Uh, Circa moved it to 43 now. So, it's a flat 43 at Circa, as it was 42 and a half right before I started recording this. Um, so, yeah, graphics outdated. So, question I have, if this was old school Chip Kelly calling the Raiders offense, I would say take this to the bank. Now, double down on it. Um, we saw, we kind of saw a new version of Chip Kelly last year at Ohio State. We saw a slow-paced Chip Kelly. Now, is that because Ryan Day was calling the shots or is that because Chip Kelly is evolving as a play caller? Uh, it's tough to say. We'll, we'll find out. I'd love to know what, how, I'd love to know how Chip Kelly is going to coach this offense. Is it going to be the uptempo Chip Kelly offenses that we've seen in years past? Uh, I think the fact that the Raiders are coming into this season with a healthy offensive line already puts them miles ahead. They only had one offensive lineman that made it through the season last year. Um, Geno Smith, Ashton Jacobs, just immediate upgrades. It's, it's impossible to say this Raiders offense is going to be worse. Like, it's going to be better without a doubt. Um, it's just a matter of the Raiders defense. This is freaking crazy. I thought after I was done with, um, I, so I did all the depth chart stuff for college football and some of those are a nightmare because it's literally like 11 new starters on the offense or the defense. This looks like a college. I mean, what, nine of the 11 starters from last year, they're all gone. This is a brand new defense. They do bring back three key pieces. They're all edge rushers in Crosby, Wilson, and Koonce. They're on the defensive line. So the Raiders might have a badass pass rush. And I will say, look, I'm not sitting here saying the Raiders defense is going to be good. I will say there's experience here. Jeremy Chinn, Eric Stokes, uh, Stokes, Germain Pratt, Landon Roberts, Devin White, these are experienced defensive players. Pete Carroll is an experienced head coach. So, I, I think the experience alone is enough to keep the Raiders from being practically joke terrible because Geno also experienced. There's just a lot of experience on the team. And like that, that I think that keeps them from going like 2 and 15 or something crazy. Um, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Raiders win some games, but I agree it's, it's really hard. And we were just talking about the, the Raiders offensive line. Speaking of health on the offensive line, New England, man, they up all of their offseason resources was spent bolstering this offense. They were all spent on the offensive side of the ball. And you look at this unit, it's hard to envision a world where this isn't dramatically better. This offensive line, I mean, their first round pick was the left tackle. They added Bradbury. They added Morgan Moses. This offensive line goes from decimated. Remember, New England spent most of the season with three or four starters out on the offensive. That was a mess last year. Now they all of a sudden you're looking at this, you're like, "This might be a pretty good offensive line." You had Stefon Diggs, uh, you had Trayvon Henderson, you got some weapons in there. Drake May, another year experienced. So, yeah, I mean, if, if I'm a Patriots fan, I'm pretty pumped about this. The only spot with New England that I pump the brakes is we've kind of grown accustomed to just hanging our hats on the Patriots defense being solid. Like, oh no, Patriots defense is going to be solid. I'm not 100% sold on the Patriots defense like I have been in years past. Um, especially with the new coaching staff. Uh, you got Terrell Williams taking over the defense. I, it'll be over or Patriots for me. I'm in agreement with a lot of things that you said.

>> Yeah, I don't mind the over as well in this game. I do think that one reason why New England is so optimistic about their upcoming season, you mentioned the improvements to the O-line. The fact is Drake May was still pretty productive considering the circumstances with such a bad offensive line and you're looking at what has been a very successful offseason for New England. They tended, at least during the Belichick era, to be, I'd say, rather passive, kind of going for the underrated moves and not really making the splash signings. They completed the opposite in this one. It felt like New England was willing to recognize the errors with the actual roster. They ended up really investing resources into a proven team immediately. Now, once again, I said a bit overrated because I don't know if I'm fully invested on this being a playoff team in the AFC. They'll be in contention. I'm not sure they get there. Do I think they're better than the Raiders? Yes. So based on that, I'll take them at home minus two and a half.

>> Agreed. All right, let's move on to game number three. And game number three is Titans, Denver in Mile High. All right, take it away. I, I mean, if you're a Broncos fan, you got to be pretty fired up for this season, right?

>> Yeah. So, I said a second ago, I'm not picking New England to make it into the playoffs. I am picking Denver to make it into the playoffs. Again, for this one, I'm going to lay the number. It's a big number at 8 and a half. I'll take it. I saw a minus 102. I'll take that. So, it's a common, I'd say, stat that gets pushed around every year, and I'll bring it back here. Rookie quarterback starting in week one, they are 17, 37, and one straight up. Over the past six seasons, they are 19 and 1 straight up. I don't have ATS numbers, but point is though, it tends to be a pretty rough go for rookie quarterbacks in week one. But you look at the Broncos made the playoffs last year. They got better during the offseason defensively, got Greenlaw and Hufanga, and they also got Ingram at the tight end spot. Minus 165s make the playoffs. Denver was six and two straight up at home last season and they also won a lot of the games by margin. They won each of their last five home games last year by at least nine points, which would cover this number. Titans, we know are really bad. It's why they got Cam Ward. They were 2 and 7 on the road last season. They are plus 370 to make the playoffs this season compared to the minus 165 for Denver. The Titans might not be insanely bad like they were last year, but they have the fifth lowest odds to record the fewest wins in the league. I think Denver's the better team obviously. I think Justin Simmons, if healthy, is an incredible safety. Dre Greenlaw, if healthy, is a very solid linebacker. The offense looked good last year with Bo Nix and with Payton together. And I do think Tennessee is going to struggle. The receiving core might actually be okay. They have some weapons there. Do I think Cam Ward hits the ground running in week one? I do not. Do I like Tennessee's coach? No. He threw Will Levis under the bus in what, like week two last year, and that kind of festered. Yeah, it was crazy. Now, I understand Levis wasn't any good, but you can't really throw the entire team under the bus immediately. The point is, I think Denver at home has a great spot to beat up on a bottom feeder, build off momentum from last year, and the fact is the team I think is better than it was last year with the additions of Greenlaw and Hufanga, especially Hufanga when healthy, who I think is really, really good. Give me Denver minus 8 and a half. I'll continue the rookie quarterback fade in week one. Give me the Broncos.

>> Uh, yeah. I don't think, actually, I don't even think this is a hot take. This, there's not a more difficult draw for a rookie quarterback in week one than on the road in Denver. This defense, second in the NFL in yards per play allowed, third in success rate last year, first in EPA. So, you could probably make an argument this was the best defense in the NFL last year. I know some people question the strength of schedule at times, but on paper, this might have been the best defense in the NFL last year. They bring back everybody except Cody Barton at linebacker. They brought in Greenlaw to play that spot again. So, you could argue that's an upgrade. And Hufanga comes in. They didn't even lose P.J. Locke. He's still there. So, they got three safeties that can rotate in now. So, yeah, it's, it's, it's almost impossible to make an argument against the Broncos defense not being top five. Like, it's a top five. You can pencil it in for a top five defense already. They're absolutely loaded, obviously barring injuries. Um, but yeah, that, it, I don't think you can get a tougher draw for Cam Ward. And look, do I think the Titans offensive line takes a step forward at some point this year? Sure. Uh, they got Callahan there. That was kind of the pitch when they brought him in, like, oh, we're going to turn this offense into a physical offense that wins the battle up front. And maybe you can't expect that to happen in year one. They also had some injuries there on the offensive line. They bring in Dan Moore Jr. there. So, maybe if you're a Titans fan, I think by in the second half of the year, I don't think it's crazy to say that the, the, the Titans have an average to maybe slightly above average offensive line. There's some, there's some higher upside there, but in terms of the weapons with Spears hurt and like Tyler Lockett, you think solves your problem? I, I, there's just not enough weapons there. I, as far as Cam Ward in the surrounding unit with the offensive line and the weapons. We've seen worse. Like look at Caleb Williams' offensive line last year. It could be worse, but to, to, to draw the opener on the road in Denver is a, a nightmare. Um, to play devil's advocate and look, I'm not advocating for a Titans bet in the slightest, but to play devil's advocate, think the battle on the other side of the field is a lot closer than maybe perception, uh, than maybe perceived. The Broncos offense looked good down the stretch and Nix played well and they deserve the credit. I am not necessarily sold on the Broncos having a great offense this year. Um, I think that that elite defense put them in many good, a lot of good positions to make the offense look better than it maybe was. I'm not sold on the Broncos having this excellent offense this year and Marvin Mims Jr. is dealing with something. I, I think he's, is Mims listed as questionable? I think he's listed as questionable. So, if Mims isn't able to play in this opener, that's a lot of, uh, you got Sutton, you're going to need a couple of rookies to step up and RJ Harvey and Pat Bryant. Um, the Titans defense, it was so screwed up last year with injuries that we kind of forgot that this is a, a team that kind of gives us a top 10 defense year after year. And last year was so crazy. They almost had like a, a whole starting defense on the IR. They, like everybody was injured. Like Kristian Fulton, people forgot he's even there. Um, they got three safeties that can rotate in because they brought in Xavier Woods. Cody Barton from the Broncos switched over to Tennessee. The defensive line, hopefully is all going to be out there. Autry, Simmons, Joseph Day. I mean, this is a good defense. So, I think we look at the Broncos as this much better team than Tennessee. And in terms of the defense for offense, yes, but Titans defense versus the Broncos offense, I wouldn't be surprised if that battle, you would actually give the edge to the Titans defense. That being said, it would only be Denver. Uh, for me here, the, what, what scares me off a little bit is, and maybe I shouldn't look at it that like this. It pisses me off that we could have got seven all summer and I was looking at baseball like, you know where it's like, damn it, we could have got seven. I think you could still get seven and a half right now. But I hate knowing that I could have got a seven if I was paying closer attention. But yeah, it's, it's hard to argue against Denver winning comfortably. I agree.

>> Yeah, you have eight on the board at minus 110. I said at 8 and a half and minus 102. Either or. I think that it's a good spot for Denver. Yep. All right, last game up. And I didn't get a chance to look at this one yet. So, I am, uh, I am all. This is the last game up, by the way, guys. This is Monday Night Football here. Um, only one Monday Night game in the opening week, which I like. I did not like the, the dual Monday Night Football games. I don't know why they kept doing that, but we got one Monday Night game this week this year or this week, I guess. Vikings, Bears. We got a short favorite here, Minnesota. So, I'm all ears. I'm listening.

>> Yeah. So, I'm going to go with the under, uh, in this game. I got 44 and a half. So, I do like it at minus 110. J.J. McCarthy making his first career start after being injured all of last year. I'm still not sure how good he actually is, first of all, because we saw him at Michigan be basically a game manager. They won the title. He went to Minnesota, barely played, got injured, and now he's back to start. So, you can argue basically a rookie quarterback here for Minnesota in this one. You're looking at the Vikings scoring defense last year being solid, ranking fourth in the league. They signed Harrison Phillips. They signed Jonathan Allen to improve the defensive line. Should be a very nice defensive line. And they also resigned a bunch of guys like Harrison Smith, for example, in the secondary. That should be a solid defense. Now, the Bears ranked 14th in scoring defense last year. They signed D.J. Moore and Adonai Mitchell to help out the defensive line as well. So, I do like their overall defense, too. Caleb Williams, is he good or not? We're going to find out. It was not a good rookie season for Caleb Williams. He had a pretty good preseason. Of course, regular season different animal. Point is though, I like both defenses. I do think that you could argue both quarterbacks have question marks surrounding them. And I do think that 44 and a half does feel pretty high to me. Physical game, think it'll be a very close division rivalry game, of course, but I think this game goes below 44 and a half. Feels pretty high. I think this game finishes in the high 30s, low 40s. Give me the under. J.J. McCarthy and Josh Allen to show me something against these defenses. Give me the under in this game.

>> Yeah, like I said, I didn't look at it, but my, my overall opinion on Caleb Williams is it's tough to unsee the way he looked. He had crazy amount of pressure on him every single game. That offensive line in front of him was bad. Um, I don't think anyone would argue that. And he really struggled handling that pressure at times, which is a very important skill set. If you want to play quarterback in the NFL, you got to know how to handle pressure, get rid of the ball, make the, the quick decision. Yeah, like definitely some concerns there, but there were also times where he would make a play and I'm like, like you're watching, like there's only like two or three players in the league that can make that play. Like, so, I mean, the talent is there. So, we'll see if he takes a step forward. Again, what I just said kind of just more like hot take nonsense than actual analysis. But, uh, those are my thoughts on, on Caleb Williams. So, we'll see. So, yeah, you like the under, Scott Raichell. Make sure you give him a follow. I'll put a graphic up on the screen right now. And, uh, yeah, Scott, thanks for joining, man.

>> Yeah, thanks for having me. It was fun.

>> Yeah. Oh, Scott will be on every Tuesday, by the way. So, he's going to pick in between three and five games every Tuesday. We'll be talking NFL. So, I'll, uh, see you next Tuesday, hopefully with a few more dollars in our accounts. All right, we are talking N. Hey, uh, thanks everyone for watching, uh, tomorrow. Wow. Okay, got a lot going on tomorrow. So, I think we're going through like 12 game college football games tomorrow night. I think. And then me and Sean Green, uh, are doing a bunch of NFL games on Thursday night, as well as Stephen on the Duck is on Thursday night as well. So, the next couple nights, uh, a lot of, we'll be doing baseball next couple nights as well, but a lot of football stuff on the next couple nights. So, thanks everyone for watching.