Transcription
The US Iran fresh round of conflict is only going to go further up the escalation ladder. That's what the indications are with both sides not interested in speaking with with each other anymore. Trump, President Trump coming out and very clearly saying he does not want to deal with Iran anymore. The IRGC indicating to the civilian government, stop the diplomacy, stop the negotiations, let our missiles do the job. Somewhere one understands that the strait of Hormuz is the jugular. Whoever controls the straight of hormones controls the narrative in this conflict. Let's ask American political scientist professor Robert Pape who's joining us now. Uh he's very beautifully outlined the escalation ladder. So please explain that to our viewers. Professor P, you had said stage three of the escalation ladder may happen in the forthcoming weeks. Trump also said that he's ready for weeks if not months. So please explain what's going to happen next.
>> Uh so since we began the war on February 28, the United States has and and Israel, but especially the United States has been stuck in a wicked escalation trap. Not just a ladder, but a trap. And that's why I named the Substack that specifically with a post a few days before the bombing started to lay out the stages of what would happen. And we are right on track. So this is not u this not done after the fact. And I've modeled the bombing Iran for 20 years. I've taught for the US Air Force big book bombing to win etc etc. So what is the escalation trap? The escalation trap is when the attacker um is tactically successful. Bombs hit targets. Bombs kill leaders. Bombs punish society. Well, that has exactly happened. But the attacker then is not underscore not strategically successful. In fact, the opposite. The strategic position of the attacker gets worse. And that's because tactics and strategic success not the same thing. So stage one, tactical success, strategic uh failure. You don't achieve your goal. The regime didn't crumble. Stage two, however, and this was uh laid out again days before is Iran lashes back, gains power, seizes moves. So it's always the most likely thing. also bombs our bases, hits the GCC, etc. Uh, and then we're in a dilemma. What do we do? I called it stage three, the ground power dilemma, limited territorial gain dilemma. What do we do in this situation? Well, this is what we've been wrestling with for months because we only have two choices. We're at a fork in the road at this point. Either we escalate to take Hormuz or big parts of it back physically or we let Iran go to what I have called stage four. Iran becomes the fourth center of world power. It controls Hormuz. That means it's uh its hand is on the grip of world oil uh and and energy in general and then can actually proceed to develop nuclear weapons. So this is these are the choices in front of President Trump. And if he doesn't go forward, you notice that the problem is that he will get a loss on his chest, tattooed on his chest. So his domestic political uh um uh strength will go down. Now, not among Democrats. They already hate him. Not among independents. They left him a while ago. No, I mean go down among MAGA. That's his problem right now. That's where this L matters. That's why Democrats can't understand what's going on. You see, because they I'm sorry to say they just don't matter in Trump's political calculation. So, what you are seeing is he's been going back and forth, back and forth. Now, there's a third element here.
>> I want to underscore, which is the world oil inventories are running to the bottom. And you'll recall Trump said, "Well, I'm going to sign thisouou a few," he said a few weeks ago because of this exact problem, which was going to happen. He said in four weeks. Well, notice he tried theou for a few weeks. The oil inventory numbers are going down. We are somewhere around 12 million barrels less in the US strategic petroleum reserve today than when Trump signed theou. So that is in other words the problem Trump said we're about to hit the iceberg. We're hitting the iceberg. So so this idea of that in Trump's mind it's well okay so if the world's going to go up economy is going off a cliff they're going to blame me anyway. He's going to do a last desperate act. And that's what this is. This is not the act of somebody who is, oh yeah, we've got a warinning weapon here. The Marines, they're going to No, the this is a act of desperation you're seeing and what you're seeing in the bombing, the literal pattern of the bombing. I don't just mean that we are bombing because keep in mind, I've taught conventional targeting strategy for the Air Force for years. uh big book on this. I've t taught this for 30 years. So I don't just say bombing. I'm looking at the exact target set that we are hitting in the 150 targets that we have struck in the last 48 hours. Now we don't know all of them, but we know quite a bit about that bombing from video. You're probably covering this. This is preparatory bombing. That's what this is. To take parts of the coast, maybe to take um some of the islands. Uh, but this would not be take it. This is not a day. We're not talking about uh it might um any operation to take territory will be a beach head on land or the island will will start out as a few day operation. But don't think days here, think weeks. Think weeks of casualties. And so even if you pull off um uh the first day with virtually no casualties, >> that is not >> mission accomplished here. So this is we are going down a road of stage three that if it starts limited is likely to expand and that is the escalation trap. And that's how even though Trump said this would never be a forever war, never be a long war, JD Vance, they all swore up and down on a Bibles, you know, not going to happen. Well, nobody goes into a forever war. Putin when he attacked uh Keev four and a half years ago. He didn't think this was going to be he thought this could be a six-day operation just like Donald Trump thought this was going to be a few day operation. So these wars, long wars don't start out as long wars. They just don't.
>> This is the escalation trap.
>> So, but many believe that Trump has the option to fold out. He can just fall back. He'd say, "Okay, I've achieved my objective. Now, the rest of the world can figure out what they want to do. Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. If you want to free up Hormuz, it's your headache. I'm not getting into it." Can he do that?
>> So, the rest of the world Yeah, you're you're right, sir. That's what everybody wants to have happen. But for Donald Trump, he he's he tried that a little bit here where he signed theou and Iran wouldn't give him a face saving way out. They kept rubbing his nose in it.
>> And it's because Iran has to this point won. And look at all the tens the over 10 million who have come out um in the streets here demanding revenge at the Supreme Leader's funeral. and they're saying, "Junk theou. We want blood." Well, if you look at this uh here, um Iran can't give Trump a face saving way out with their own without their own leaders being killed.
>> That's what this is about. This is people, this is about not just like being nice in a real estate meal. Let's have a cup of coffee. Okay? We're in the middle of war where um we have killed the supreme the Americans have and Israelis have killed the supreme leader, his wife, members of his family. That's like killing the president, first lady, members of the first family, and about 50 leaders in general, which is like killing everybody in our uh the top leadership of the US Pentagon, the CIA, uh the cabinet for succession. So, just think about that. And then on top of that, we killed about 3,700 people in Iran in the in the bombing so far. Uh that has happened. Well, if you think about that, that's more than died in America on 9/11. And Iran's about a third of the size of the United States. So that's like we've done three 911s. So So the idea that they're going to just like forget about all that is is not very likely. So this is why the idea that Iran would would give Trump like a face saving way out was never going to work. And so the and the public is going to say look I don't understand why won't and it's the reason is because Trump is worrying about his presidency not the public. And he said that over and over and over again.
>> And um what has the public really got to offer Donald Trump? Let me put it this way. Are the Democrats going to say to Donald Trump, "If you don't attack, we're going to give you a third term." What are they really going to say? You see, this isn't real. All this is just carping and tr and this is how you get into wars and you get all this talk. Okay? But I don't study talk. I study war, right? And I've advised four white houses from not from 2001 to 2024 about >> violence.
>> True. Yes. And there are presidents who won Nobel Peace Prizes despite having the most amount of violence during their tenurs. So but let's set that aside. But for Trump, if war is not the solution and MAGA base doesn't want war, why is he getting back into it? How is this going to help his presidency? Many many believe that he can kiss the midterm president midterms goodbye. It's about what happens thereafter. [snorts]
>> Yes, sir. I I think you need to call up uh for for refresh uh everybody's uh knowledge of the most recent polls of MAGA.
>> And I think you're going to see that only about 25% of Trump's supporters want him to pull out and abandon ship here. Walk away, which he tried to do, by the way. Uh now that's like the Tucker Carlson wing and so forth. Yeah. Uh 50% want him to go forward to quote finish the job. And that's often the way the questions are phrased, finish the job. And just recently in the last, I think 24 hours, Donald Trump has said he's prepared to finish the job. Well, that's the 50%. And then there's 25% that say they're unsure. Okay. Um so that's the actual recent numbers, sir. And what you what you see here is if Trump comes out of this as a loser where Iran controls Hormuz and Iran makes no deal on the nuclear front. He heads into the elections a loser.
>> Yeah.
>> And you know what? MAGA didn't hire him because they like him.
>> They hired him because he kept saying, "I'm a winner. vote for me even if you don't like me personally because I will win. So once he gets the L tattooed on him,
>> no, this doesn't work out for him. And that's why it's hard for people who are not in the MAGA side to see it because they already don't want Trump. You see what I mean? So So for them, they didn't vote for him in the first place or they were like holding their nose voting for him. Do you see what I mean? So this is a different this is why the politics of this are so hard for people to follow from like uh podcast politics. Okay. But the truth is the numbers are the numbers and and that's more my job. I'm I'm I'm not just um you know commenting here. This is what I do professionally for a living day in and day out for 35 years.
>> The other thing professor pay many believe that uh President Trump can either sort Iran or sort Russia. He can't be doing both. So he will have to pull out a one to be able to win the other.
>> Well, it's really ironic that you you talk about that because this weekend on my substack um here I'm going to have um a live briefing for the professor of paper. I actually it's so big here. I have two substacks. I have the escalation trap which I'm also gonna do which is details on Iran specific because there's so many there's like this is like 65 I mean 70,000 it's unbelievable how much interest there is then I've started the professor pap substack because people want to know things like what does this mean for Europe and other parts of the world and on your show you asked me about India a few weeks ago and so forth so I had to so I can't do both because there's not the same interest in both so I started the other one. And on this weekend, we're going to talk about Trump's two-front war problem because what he just did at NATO is he gave the license to Ukraine to uh which he's not given to anybody else. Didn't give this to Israel. He's going to give a license to Ukraine to build these Patriot missiles. Well, Putin definitely he's going to have noticed that. Yeah. So, so this is where now Trump is getting himself stuck in two escalation traps.
>> M a double and and Putin is in an escalation trap. So this framework of escalation trap. It actually I I've been using this for over 30 years. It's a very useful framework. That's why I made it public. So I've been teaching about this for decades. And so this is why I'm making the framework public. These stages are very very useful. And then as we get into the stages, it helps people to understand well why would a president could be Lynden Johnson now it's Donald Trump. uh in the 60s. I mean, Lyndon Johnson, why would a president keep upping the ante here when he's losing when he goes up? Yeah.
>> The reason is domestic politics, which a lot of realists like to ignore and sweep under the rug because we like to pretend everything is just [clears throat] a chess game. You see what I mean? But the politics of this matters to these presidents and and it's Donald Trump's they say, "Well, why would he care about his political standing? can't run for reelection. It's his legacy. You saw him in Mount Rout Rushmore. He wants to be forever the greatest president ever. That's the way all presidents really think. He's just more honest about it.
>> True. You make sense there as always. Professor Pap, I just would like to digress a bit and shift the focus on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visits to Indonesia, Australia, and uh New Zealand. Strategically what's the import because one he signed an India Indonesia cooperation with the Sabang port. India is going to offer another battery of Brahmos missiles to Indonesia. Australia has promised supply of uranium to power India's civil nuclear plants and then of course there is the 57% no tariff uh FDA with New Zealand. So is this is there a strategic import or a thread that prime minister Narendra Modi is endeavoring to
>> I I certainly detect it and I I think so. Now of course I have not had the privilege of ever speaking with your prime minister. So take that take what I say here as um an an informed strategic analyst and observer here. So it's a uh but nonetheless what you're laid out is the obvious uh one of the obvious strategies you might as the uh leader of India pursue watching Pakistan build a a strong coalition on the other side. So of course Pakistan and India have been at odds for quite some time. We know all about that. Um and what Pakistan has uh done with the war, they started this even before the war, but they have been starting to build alliances, rather strong alliances here um that uh with uh with Iran uh increasingly with Saudi Arabia uh with then um uh this is not a tight NATOike alliance but uh with tacic cooperation with China and also with uh uh Qatar and also with Russia. So if you look at that from India's perspective, you look over there and you say, "Oh my goodness gracious, that's not a that's not a tight warfighting alliance yet, but that's getting that that's too, you know, tight for comfort here." What would India do in this circumstance? Well, they would start to try to think about building a counter or maybe not even define it as a counter. they would probably never say those words, but they would build an alternative set of allies here that they can work with. Um, and what you're describing makes absolutely perfect sense. Uh, now this is not the say these become warfighting alliances. So I don't want to say that that's the but diplomatically this makes perfect sense uh for what India should be thinking about and this is going to be um touch and go over time. So so keep in mind a couple months here in a war well that's very painful for gas prices for the public but in world in geopolitical time that's very short period of time. So, so, so these uh this is what sort of frustrates I think the public when we get into these because they're feeling pain at the gas pump. Therefore, they want everything to be over by the next 24 hours when in geopolitical time this is these are always much longer and that's why they the public can't really follow it so easily. They get kind of bored and they don't realize it. It's because the public cares about the price, the cost they pay. But what you're describing is geopolitics of the highest order.
>> True. Because this is happening soon after the Pacific Command dropped Indo and went back to being the Pacific Command. Uh India announces the great Nikopar shipment trans shshipment project on its own uh islands. And then there is this cooperation with uh Indonesia, the Sabang port right at the mouth of the Malaka strait. And then you further the uh collaboration and purchase of uranium from a nation like Australia. So you're moving away and then Australia promises and there's no number there. Uh and
>> that's right. So I may you may talk me into doing another substack on this in a few weeks because I did one related to India a few weeks about a month ago. Anyway, but back to what you're describing. So notice that America as protector of uh the waterways, the straits, it's not just America is not doing a good job of protecting Gulf States and protecting the passage through Hormuz. This has immediate consequences for uh India, for Taiwan, for other countries around the world. Um, and that's what you're seeing play itself out. So you have the alliance forming uh here that I described. You those dynamics on top of that you have America as guarantor and protector declining and and it's it's declining in multiple ways. It's declining both in a tactical sense cuz if we're going to jenny up the pressure here around Hormuz, man oh man, we don't have much space uh uh and much resources and many missiles to deal with problems in other parts of the world.