Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We are going to prepare for a week of trading. We will look at the different economic announcements that are coming up. We will see on BDC if we can get any setups or not that trigger. We will of course talk about the land and three altcoins requested for analysis. Chiliz, Dash, and Sky. We will see if we have any setups or not that trigger on these cryptos. We will also follow up on the trades that I still have ongoing.
So, I'll start here with the economic announcements. This week, we have the 3rd estimate of GDP in the United States. So, we'll have to see if we have figures above or below expectations. Ideally, we want the economy not to be doing too well. Why? Because that would encourage the Fed to lower its rates. So, we expect 4.3% for this 3rd estimate. Now, the third estimate is not the most important, but we will definitely have to watch it. And we also have the PCE. This is a very important data point for the Fed because it is one of the most important data points it takes into account for rate decisions, along with employment. But PCE and employment are really important data. It simply allows us to know if inflation is rising or not. And ideally, for it to be bullish, we want figures below expectations. This would confirm to us that inflation is falling. Falling inflation can more quickly encourage the Fed to lower its rates. However, perhaps not at the next meeting, which is in 10 days. Why? Because we are not expecting any rate cuts and 5% rate cuts. On the other hand, it could encourage the Fed for its March 18th or April 29th meeting to potentially have a cut or two cuts in rates more accelerated. I believe we are expecting rate cuts for 2026. If we can have some rather good announcements to anticipate three, well, it's sure that it would be rather good. So, we will have to watch all of that. It will be January 22nd, it will be Thursday, and as I said, it will have an important role and could create volatility. So, be careful if you have positions on that day, it will be very important to watch all of that.
I'll start here with BTC. We have our weekly close coming up. It would be good to have a weekly close above this level and ideally have a wick that represents no more than 50% of the candle. You know I like to work like that when I have a candle with a large wick in one direction or the other. Well, and when I have the close, I always take the wick into account to know if we have a real breakout signal or not. When we start to have a large wick, you see for example here, we have a rather significant wick, not 50% but I would say 60% of the candle, 40% wick. Well, that simply shows us that buyers are waking up. When we have a large green candle on the other side and a large wick on a green candle, it can indicate that sellers are showing up. And often, these can be signs of tops, of bottoms. You see here, oops, large wick at this level. So, these are always signs that I like to take into account. For now, we seem to be closing in a good way. It would be good to push a little more and close above the if we can close above 95,500, 96,000, that would be rather rather good. But in any case, for now, we are pushing, confirming that we are breaking out. I know there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of people wondering if we are really breaking out. For me, as I told you, as long as we don't re-enter this level, as long as we don't re-enter the previous range, nothing alarming.
Let's take a volume profile. Oops. And well, what do we have? We have a good zone around 9300. As long as we are above the value area high, there is nothing alarming. Okay? We could even come back and settle here, go like this, and that would not be a signal of reversal of our dynamic. On the other hand, the signal to watch for that would be bearish is either we go back below the value area high, or we go below $90,000, and then we would really have very bad signals for the future with a market that would have a high chance of plunging and returning to the lower extremity, or even breaking this lower extremity. For now, this week, I expect a market that is rather bullish or at least sideways, but not one that starts to correct. Now, when I say I expect, it's from a probability standpoint. Now, if this scenario unfolds, I won't be in a mode of saying, "Wow, what's happening? I don't understand, it wasn't planned." No, I will adjust my exposure level, I will make decisions, well, simply in line with what the market offers me, because we cannot anticipate what the market will do. On the other hand, we can react and adjust, take action based on what the market shows us. When the market shows us a breakout here, when we have moving averages pointing upwards, we will rather, in a context, take longs, we will build positions, we will perhaps take profits for those who are already positioned before, because we are starting to be at high levels, but we will simply adapt based on what the market does. The market is going bearish here because on the medium term, at least long term, we are bearish because we are still below the daily tunnel, we haven't really crossed this large zone. We have a close, but a rather weak one, we saw it weekly, but we could go back bullish if really to really go back bullish weekly, we would first have to settle above the daily tunnel, and I would be really confident if we settle above $106,000. For me, the large zone of interest is there where potentially we can do this. On the other hand, if we do this, yes, it's bullish for the future. Here, we have a big wall. This zone here, it's a big wall. On the other hand, on the medium term, we are bullish, and on the short term, we are also bullish. Bullish neutral because we are sideways, but we still have contradictions between the medium, short, and long term. So that's why we need to be prudent and we need to know, we need to have hypotheses in case we do this. Here, you must ask yourselves questions because afterwards, I know how some of you sometimes reason, and there's nothing wrong with that. We've all been there, and I was also a beginner at one point, and I used to operate with a bias, with an opinion, meaning I would tell myself it's bullish and I would have blinders on, meaning whatever happens, meaning if we do this or if we do that, I wouldn't know what to do, I wouldn't know how to react, and when I do things like that, well, I'm in a bit of a bind. Why? Because I didn't have a plan, I didn't plan for this eventuality because I was convinced that the market could only do this. Whereas a good trader, a good investor, is someone who knows how to adjust their exposure based on these three scenarios. In any case, the market can either go up, go down, or stay put. And no matter what we do, you need to know what to do. Sometimes, it can be doing nothing. It's a strategy sometimes to do nothing, but you need to know that you are doing nothing. And if you don't plan what to do based on what the market will do, that's where you will be in uncertainty. The market will take a direction, and if it's not the direction you predicted, you will panic, your emotions will take control, and you will simply make bad decisions. And that's where, generally, when your emotions play tricks on you, you make bad decisions, it impacts your capital, and so on and so forth. So, if you want to start this week, you can ask yourself, "Okay, if we go higher and break $100,000, what do you do?" Take profits, readjust your exposure, take long trades again. There you go. If we stay neutral all week, what do you do? And if we break $90,000, what do you do? All these are questions you need to ask yourselves. And it's not "Ah, I'll ask myself the question when it happens?" No, because when it happens, you will be biased. It's like all the people who, when we were here, I was building my profit-taking strategy, I was talking about 100,000, 100,000 dollars, 120,000 dollars. I knew where I would take my profits, even if we were far from that level. And many people were in the mode of "Ah no, I'll wait and I'll take these, I'll adjust my exposure, I'll do my profit strategy when we are at high levels." The problem is that when we reach $100,000, people will start their strategy being aware that the market is at $100,000. The problem is that they will be biased because they will want to take profits higher because they will be disconnected from reality, and the later you make your strategy, the less realistic it will be for the simple reason that you can be biased because we are already high and because you want to go higher. If your strategy is built on levels like this or levels like this, you will have a better chance of sticking to it and it will have a better chance of being realistic. Someone who says, "I'm building a profit-taking strategy at $120,000," it's too late because that person will put $150,000, $1800. It's the same when we are like this at these levels, that's where we know the interesting zones to position ourselves. Okay? But it's not when we say, "I'll see where to position myself when we reach $50,000." No, that's not the right method, and if you operate like that, it will be complicated.
Well, in any case, on the, that's on the long term, on the medium short term. Oops, what we need to watch is the new weekly pivot point we will have. We'll talk about that again tomorrow. Here, we have a good confluence for a while between the 1-hour tunnel and the weekly pivot point, but we haven't had any pullback at all, so I haven't specifically had any setups from my side. At the level of the monthly pivot points, we have passed resistance 1. Now, I rarely display resistance 2, but we can display it. It wouldn't surprise me to have a top there. No, it's higher. It's perfectly in confluence with $99,500. So, you see, there is a very good location zone if we get there in the coming days, where we will need to be very careful. Here, this forms a market top. It can still surprise me a bit because I think we have the strength to push higher. On the other hand, this zone, we will really need to watch it. We have a significant confluence of levels. Daily Price Action tunnel acting as resistance, resistance 2 on the monthly pivot point. So, the psychological figure of $100,000 just above. It's a very decisive level, in any case, if we get there. So, watch that. Prepare your trading week. Likewise, on my end, I will look at the pivot points. If we have a pullback at this level around 93,000, it could be a good zone to take longs if I get a buying reaction. And yes, I don't want to re-enter this level. And I don't want to go below this level. And so, this is my plan. We have a pullback here, a buying reaction. I can take a long with an invalidation if we re-enter. Otherwise, well, I'll wait to go back above the 15-minute tunnel, to have upward momentum again, to be in the kind of market conditions to do trend continuation on the short term. Taking shorts currently, no. The only conditions that could make me take shorts are a strong acceleration downwards, going below this level, and having moving averages pointing downwards. In that case, pullbacks could allow me to take shorts. Okay? Or else, if I get a strong selling signal here, I could potentially also take shorts because the location is rather good. But I need a reversal of my dynamic, a market top structure. I globally need something like I just drew here with this peak at this level. And then, okay, I could potentially take a short, but for now, I prefer not to rush into it too much because the trend is bullish for now, and I don't want to trade against the trend.
There, on my end for BTC, regarding the two trades I have ongoing, there's still a trade on ICP that is still at break-even. So, there you go, we'll let the trade unfold calmly. We'll see what it yields. In any case, I can't lose anything on this trade. I've moved my stop loss to break-even. So, simply, I'm waiting, we're pulling back slightly. We see that we are just on a VOP. Okay, it's classic in a W structure like this of a pump and having a retracement moment. The ideal is to form higher lows here. I don't specifically have any inversion from my side. And on Optimism, it's not taking off strongly for now. No inversion either. We are still in an upward trend here, and that's why my invalidation is below this low. Why? Because if we break this level and if we go lower, well, I don't want to hold a position that shows me that we are reversing our dynamic by making a lower low than the previous one. Logically, in an upward trend, we keep making higher lows, and when we break a previous low, generally, it's not good. So, I would prefer to exit at that level from my side. So, there you go, two positions I have ongoing, I haven't taken any others from my side, swing positions that I accept to keep for weeks, automatically, maybe even months, it takes time to take off. And and well, there you go. And on intraday, I don't have much. I don't have any intraday trades.
Regarding Ethereum, it's pushing a bit more today. It's still in this upward trend of higher lows and higher highs. On the other hand, here, we are on resistance, so it's really tight to position ourselves on Ethereum. We have a weekly close that is quite good if I just look at the close, ignoring the wicks. We are making higher lows and higher highs here, but yes, we are hitting a big level. We also have the daily tunnel. We are hitting it, which acts as resistance. I don't know if we have pivot points here. Oops, let's look at that together. Uh, no, we've gone back above the monthly pivot point. So, that's rather good. You see, we've gone back above, it acted as support, and we're hitting. Yes, that's right, we're hitting resistance 1 of our monthly pivot point. So, we see that the pivot points on Ether are respected rather well. These are the weekly pivot points, the weekly pivot points in purple. At this level, we see that it acted as support, and the monthly pivot point in gray. So, likewise, the new weekly pivot points will be very interesting levels to watch, and monthly, if we start to break above $3,400, for me, that's the major zone of interest. Here, it acts as resistance, but if we manage to go above it, we exit this range, and for me, the direction is towards the next zone of interest at $3,800. There's not much that will prevent the price from reaching that level. Logically, that's the next target, and as we break a support level like this, well, the target after that is to reach the next one, as we had if we had broken this level, well, the target would have been to reach $2,200 afterwards. So, we are rather in a scenario where if we push, if we manage to break this level, the target is $3,800. However, for now, we have absolutely not broken it. We are rather in a context of caution, we are still on resistance. And if we get a selling reaction, then we shouldn't form an M top and go below this level. Doing something like this would be really not good for Ether, and we would reverse our dynamic and perhaps enter a bearish dynamic with a return to the range.
There, that's for BTC and ETER. I'll quickly move on to the US market, which has been making ATH after ATH for a few weeks, a few months, but with low momentum. We are losing momentum here, we can see it with the MACD. So, we have a bearish divergence that is confirmed. Those who use RSI more can look at that together on RSI. On RSI, we are also diverging. We see that here, we are making a lower high while on the price, we are making a higher high. I think if I switch to 3 days, we've been diverging well for a while. Weekly, we are also diverging. So, there you go, we see that even on the MACD, we are diverging, we see that there is a weakening on the buyers' side, but there is no seller awakening, which is quite surprising. And weak buyers will always be stronger than absent sellers. So, for now, we remain in an upward trend, the moving averages are pointing upwards. Uh, there they are pointing upwards. No sign of reversal. On the other hand, if we start to form a reversal pattern, trap buyers, and enter a bearish dynamic, well, these lows will be targets, clearly. And there are quite a lot of people to liquidate below these lows. So, we can expect a long squeeze like we have here with a rather significant drop. It will happen at some point, that's how it is, the market always has bullish phases, correction phases. Okay? And for now, it's been a long time since we've had a real correction phase on the S&P 500. So, it's better to be cautious now. In recent times, when the S&P 500 falls, crypto pumps, and vice versa. So, we'll see how long this correction lasts.
Now, regarding the altcoins requested for analysis, here is Chiliz. So, what we need to watch for Chiliz, and I'm not analyzing the chart, but I'll tell you what to watch for. Apparently, it's pumping quite well in recent days. We've made a x2. Chiliz is a project in the football domain. There are a lot of fan tokens created thanks to the Chiliz project. And what do we have? We have the World Cup coming up. Okay. In June 2026, so we are about 5 months away from the World Cup. Why am I telling you this? Because in 2022, we had a big "buy the rumor." So, even if it's not a rumor that we know is happening, we buy the event well in advance. And the launch was in November 2022 with the end of the World Cup in late December 2022. And there was "buy the rumor, sell the news." So, the World Cup started, if I recall correctly, there was a big downward movement directly at the opening of the World Cup. I believe it was Saturday, November 19th, not the 7th. I think the market top at that time occurred when the World Cup started, and we see that before that, we had a whole "buy the rumor" with a good rise. Here, if I look from the lowest point to the highest point, we've made a x3. So, the World Cup starts in November, so the 11th of the month, and here it's June, the day is the 6th. So, we have 5 months as well. We are in roughly the same scenario. We had a bullish rally about 5 months before the World Cup started, and during the entire World Cup, which lasted about a month and a half, a big downward phase until we bottomed out at the end of the World Cup, which was around here, I believe, in this area, but I need to check. So, we see that we can have an event that repeats itself. It's something to watch for those who want to have similar market conditions, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing. That is, a market that pumps quite a bit in the coming weeks, months, potentially with correction phases. We see that we have already started, and at the launch of the World Cup, potentially a drop. We will have to watch, and it could be a good setup to take shorts, with good risk management, we are never 100% sure, but to take shorts at the time of the World Cup opening, a day before, or ideally with a technical signal, something similar, because generally, it's like this, people anticipate before the event, and at least the event comes out. Many people say, "Ah, I'm going to buy, I'm going to buy." Because everyone will buy. Except that most people are already on board. Now, technically, it's ugly. Since 2022, we've been in a bearish trend with lower lows and lower highs. When I look at the moving averages, it's rather good. We've gone back above the 3-day tunnel. So, we are trying to form a bottom. And the problem is that the bottom is forming a bit of a V-bottom. I'm not a fan of this kind of structure. Now, yes, we are indeed reversing our dynamic, but every time we've reversed our dynamic, it was for a bullish rally. It's not that either that reversed our long-term trend. For now, when I look at the long-term trend, well, we can clearly see that we are rather in a descending channel with a good amplitude between the lowest and highest point, I agree. But in any case, it's not like I'm thinking "5-10 years because it will make me x20." No, absolutely not. If we take trades, we don't hesitate to take profits when we get close to the upper boundary. And then, to really form a large bottom, it would be good on a monthly basis to have a sort of large reversal pattern and validate a higher low than the previous one. We are not managing to make a higher low than the previous one here, and that would potentially be a bullish signal to start a corrective phase. But that's not the case for now. So, I will wait, but I will keep an eye on it with the World Cup coming up.
Next, I have an analysis of Dash. Well, Dash is a bit part of the cryptos that personally I'm not a fan of. These are cryptos that tend towards zero in the long term. They can always have pumps like we are seeing lately. But in the long term, for me, this is a crypto that will surely tend towards zero. We see it from a price action perspective, it's not great. And well, sometimes there can be volatility with small narratives like we have currently. Now, does it validate a bottom for all that? Well, on weekly, it's rather good. We had these W structures, so we can potentially start a rally. Now, we have quite a few resistance zones, we have quite a few buyers who are stuck. I don't think it's a crypto that can do like XRP, it can go anywhere. This is a crypto that is very interesting for trend continuation, but for long-term investment on charts like this, honestly, I find it difficult, and these are the dinosaur cryptos. There's not much to do with them. From the moment a crypto no longer makes ATH after ATH, it means there's a loss of momentum, and we can still have trades that can be taken in the long term because here we have good amplitude and there's potential for performance. I totally agree. However, it's not a crypto for the long term. In any case, there's just one simple thing to do with this type of crypto, which is to do crypto 2.dash USD divided by crypto 2.btc USD. We validate, and then we simply have the performance of Dash against BTC. And is it a good investment? No, we can see it clearly. Why? Because since 2018, we are at -99%, and it's a crypto that has been underperformed by BTC. Now, yes, on the other hand, there can be good trades. You see here, oops, we made a plus 150%. At this level, we also perform. At this level, it's even rather good. You see a big outperformance, but not over 5-10 years. Yes, over a few months it can be interesting. I'm not saying otherwise, but holding it and putting it in a crypto portfolio and saying in 10 years, I'll come back, it's perhaps not the best solution. On the other hand, the chart is rather interesting here for trend continuation. We put moving averages here. Oops, higher lows and higher highs. There you go, we have 3 minutes above 15 minutes, 15 minutes above 1 hour. We are rather in a bullish context here with good momentum. For those looking for an asset to trade in trend continuation with bullish momentum, Dash is a good opportunity here, and as soon as we start going below 1 hour, we have a signal that is rather bearish, but as long as we stay in a bullish dynamic, it's interesting, and if we take the last movement here, oops, we will go to the 15 minutes and lean on it, we make a new high. On the other hand, when we start to lose the 1-hour, we clearly see the bearish dynamic setting in.
And the last crypto, Sky. Oops. Uh, I'll look for more charts. I don't think I have everything here. Can I use Coinbase? No, is there KuCoin or not? KuCoin, I always have everything. I think I have everything here. After all, it's a recent project. Oops, let's look at that. Uh, no, it's true, it's Maker. There was a change, and sometimes there are uh, yes, it's true, it's Maker. Sometimes there are name changes, I completely forget. Besides, when it's tokens that I don't follow all the time, Maker is not a project I own or that particularly interests me. So, I'm not constantly updated, and you have to keep up. And luckily, the market cap displayed it. Uh, where are we? And well, here, it's not great what we're doing. We have a good descending candle. What are we? Ah yes, we're not up to date. January 12th, and currently it's the 18th. I don't like the, you see, that's the problem with chart changes. We need something that allows me to see everything. January 12th was when? It was there, we had a big drop, and then we started to go up again. Yes, well, globally, let's say January 12th is here. We are around January 6th. January 6th is here, we are here. Okay, we did that. We did that. So, currently, we are here. I prefer to have the whole chart to do a complete analysis. Uh, so where are we? And well, in fact, we have simply pulled back to the psychological zone of $1,000. Every time it's simply a point of interest, we have a buying reaction again. Well, the objective is to reach the opposite extremity. In any case, it's a yo-yo we've been doing on Maker for a while. Now, it needs to be called Sky. There you go, it's a yo-yo of intermediate levels. Next zone, $2,200. If this level breaks, the objective is $4,000. After that, these are points of interest. That is, when we come back to support levels like this, we increase our exposure level, and when we pump and reach resistance levels, we reduce our exposure level. And there are three major levels at this point. If we start to lose them, there can be invalidations. The big invalidation is if we lose this level. Then it would be rather bearish. And also if we lose the low of 2023. But there you go, otherwise, here we are not in the best zone to position ourselves. We are globally in the middle of the range. Set alerts on the extremities and then try to do trend continuation when there is an upward flow. You see that we are in this kind of context, it's perfect for trading. We are in this kind of context, we need to switch to shorter timeframes to trade an upward flow. And then, in any case, the support and resistance levels do their job rather well on Sky. So, there you go, step by step, but three boundaries to watch anyway, and each extremity is a good zone to increase or decrease your exposure level.
There, I'm done with BTC. I wish you a very good week. Be careful in your trades. Don't hesitate to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.