Transcription
Meanwhile, the US Vice President JD Vance has arrived in Israel as the United States looks to shore up that fragile ceasefire in Gaza. He's expected to push Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to start negotiations on a permanent end to the war with Hamas. Well, the visit follows deadly attacks in Gaza over the weekend. Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an incident in Rafa. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli air strikes. Well, let's speak to our Middle East correspondent, Hugo Bicha.
And Hugo, we have the special envoys there. We now have the US vice president. I suppose that underlines just how fragile things are.
Yeah, Matthew. And, uh, the Israeli newspapers this morning, uh, had, uh, you know, the view, uh, here was that this shows that the Americans are running the show, in the words of one commentator, and that Israel is essentially following orders from the American administration. And that, uh, all these meetings, uh, one of the messages, uh, in all these meetings between, uh, these, uh, uh, American officials and the Israeli government, uh, is that, uh, the Americans want, uh, Israel to remain committed to, uh, the ceasefire. And one of the newspapers said that there was a very, uh, clear message, uh, given to the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Americans respect, uh, you know, actions by the Israeli military that are in self-defense, but that they, uh, don't expect any kind of action by Israel that might endanger the ceasefire and phase two of, uh, the president's plan. And I think the idea behind the visit by, uh, the vice president, uh, JD Vance, is to advance these negotiations over the remaining points of, uh, the president's plan for Gaza. We're seeing that the ceasefire in Gaza is part of phase one. Uh, but we haven't seen those negotiations yet, uh, over the, uh, remaining points of the president's plan. And we all know that major obstacles remain, and one of them is about the future of Hamas. One of the, uh, you know, key Israeli demands is that Hamas must disarm. Uh, the group so far has rejected it. There have been some threats from President Trump himself, saying that if Hamas fails to do that voluntarily, that the Americans, uh, may employ force to achieve that. Uh, so it really shows how difficult these, uh, negotiations are going to be. These talks are going to be. The Israeli government has said it will not engage in negotiations until all, uh, bodies of deceased hostages are returned. 15 bodies, uh, are still, uh, in Gaza, still, you know, uh, need to be returned to Israel. So it shows how fragile this process, uh, is and how difficult these negotiations are going to be.
>> Hugo, for now, thanks very much. We are expecting a news conference from JD Vance in about an hour's time. We'll carry that live. Hugo talking about Donald Trump. He mentioned it in a news conference yesterday. Another post on Truth Social saying that if Hamas don't do the right thing, the end for them will be fast, furious, and brutal. Well, let's speak live to Alen Pinkass, former Israeli diplomat, writer who's also been an adviser to four former Israeli prime ministers. And thank you so much for being here on the program as ever. Can this delegation apply the pressure that's needed, do you think, to hold this ceasefire together?
No, I don't think so. I mean, they want to to, uh, um, uh, to exert this pressure. They have done so by virtue of the agreement being signed. Um, I think that, you know, you don't need the the actual physical presence of the US vice president, uh, to pressure Mr. Netanyahu. Now, the ceasefire was broken after 10 days. Yes, but it was restored yesterday. Now the fate of the ceasefire, rather than or as as opposed to the other phases which which we will discuss in a moment, I imagine, uh, the fate of the ceasefire depends on two things, uh, Matthew. The first is just local, you know, skirmishes that can, uh, deteriorate and escalate, and before you know it, the ceasefire is broken. That was the case, uh, um, two days ago or in a day ago, when when Hamas shot at an Israeli vehicle and Israel, uh, bombed all over the place. And the second is what you and your correspondent just referred to, uh, in your discussion, and that is Hamas disarming, which I, I, uh, I'm very skeptical will happen. And that, of course, uh, now leads us to the next phases, which I think are not just, uh, fragile, but they're intractable. I, I just do not see. I'm sorry to be the pessimist here. I just do not see them being implemented, and no matter how many times JD Vance comes.
>> I'll come back to those longer term questions in a moment, but right now we don't even have the basics. Gaza being flooded with humanitarian aid. That was part of the deal. The return of all the dead hostages. And of course, we have had in the intervening time Donald Trump declare peace in the Middle East.
>> Yeah. Well, you know, he, he also declared peace in Ukraine in 24 hours, and he declared that he will annex Canada, and he declared that he will purchase Greenland. Um, his, his, uh, declarations and, you know, and bombastic, uh, appearances aside, he means well here, uh, but he did not exactly achieve peace in the Middle East. And if you needed proof of that, uh, you just saw what happened, what transpired in the last 24 or 36 hours, which we just, uh, spoke about. There's no peace in the Middle East here. There's, there's, there was a ceasefire agreement that included an exchange of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. That was done relatively smoothly. Uh, whether or not the, uh, um, the ceasefire will hold or collapse, we, we will see in the next few days.
>> Just a brief final thought because you mentioned disarming Hamas, but the other thing of course which is
>> Go ahead. I was going to say you mentioned disarming Hamas. The other thing of course is how quickly any sort of stabilization force can be there on the ground because already in the last couple of days you've had Ben Gavir amongst others saying look all the living hostages are back, let's get back to the war.
>> Yeah. And he means it. And, and, and I'm not sure that Mr. Netanyahu does not want the same thing. Which leads me to submit to you the following proposition as as a final thought. As you said, um, Netanyahu, Prime Minister Netanyahu convinced Trump that his plan could probably be better implemented and in a more and in a more effective way if once the hostages have been released, and they have, if there's another round of fighting. So, Mr. Netanyahu made these promises, and you see it, you see, uh, traces of it in Mr. Trump's reactions that that their end will be swift and and and short and furious and okay. Um, what Israel failed to do in two years, that is completely destroy and annihilate Hamas, um, it is now promising Trump to do, uh, um, in a very quick and decisive way. And, and I believe, uh, um, you know, reading between the lines of these statements and looking at the actions, that Netanyahu is trying to convince the Americans, Trump last week, and JD Vance, vice president, uh, today, uh, that it's okay if the ceasefire breaks and Israel goes in for one last hurrah, um, and then we implement the agreement. Now, if you ask me, we don't have time for that. Um, it's going to work, uh, uh, the exact opposite. Uh, but that's what he's trying to do, which is why I am very skeptical that the ceasefire will hold.
>> Impas is always great to have your views on the program. So, thank you for joining us once again. Thanks for your time. Thank you, Matthew.