Transcription
In this video, I asked Chat GPT to give me its prediction for the 2028 presidential election. And so today, we'll be taking a look at AI's electoral map and see who comes out on top.
To start, I asked for a nominee from both parties. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance was the clear pick. He's currently polling at 45% among Republican voters. And according to ChatJPT, his most likely pick for Vice President would be Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
And then for the Democrats, Gavin Newsome was selected out of a crowded field of potential Democratic hopefuls. He's currently polling ahead of former Vice President Kala Harris and former transportation secretary Pete Budajed. And according to AI, his most likely running mate would be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
And now coming to the map, I also asked Chat GPT to give me a prediction for the margin from every single state. And so we're just going to jump right into it.
Starting off with the safe states for the JD Vance and Marco Rubio ticket. These are states that AI predicts the Republicans will win by 15 percentage points or more. And they include Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, all of Nebraska except its second district, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Florida. This would be the first time any presidential candidate won Florida by a solid margin in the 21st century. However, considering that Marco Rubio served two terms as a senator from the sunshine state, it is not too surprising to see. And of course, we saw that in 2024, Donald Trump carried Florida by 13 points.
And now for the Democrats, we have a roughly equal amount of votes that will go to Gavin Newsome and Josh Shapiro from the safe states alone. According to Jack GPT's prediction, Democrats are on track to carry the entirety of the West Coast by at least 15 points, as well as Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, as well as the first district of Maine. This gives the Democratic ticket 148 electoral votes. Meanwhile, JD Vance and Marco Rubio have a four vote lead at 152.
And before we continue, we're going to take a quick look at the national polls that have been conducted for this exact matchup between the vice president and the governor of California. We've gotten five polls over the last five months with JD Vance leading in three of them. Gavin Newsome only ahead in one. This poll conducted by Yahoo News, which is not a good pollster. We don't even have a sample size for it. And so, generally, Vance does have the slightest of edges nationally. And of course, as a Republican, if Vance wins the national vote, there is no doubt he will also come out on top in the electoral college.
And so, now that we're back at the map, we'll continue by filling in the likely states for both tickets. These are states that Chad GPT gave to either party by margins of 5 to 15 points. They are going to be competitive. However, one candidate still retains a pretty clear edge.
And so, starting off with the likely red states, we're going to begin up top in Maine. And specifically its second congressional district. Republicans will win it for a fourth time in a row. The last Democrat to win it was Barack Obama back in 2012. Vance is also going to take Texas. This is going to be an easy win. A few years ago, it seemed as if the state could actually flip blue. That was after Trump carried Texas by just five points in 2020. However, four years later against Kla Harris, he'll win it by nearly 14 points. Texas is no longer competitive. Republicans have a clear edge here and it will easily go to the Republicans in 2028. They will also take Alaska and its three electoral votes as well as both Iowa and Ohio. These are two states that Trump flipped back in 2016 that he's won ever since. In 2012, Obama won both of them. Iowa by six and Ohio by three. In fact, Obama won every single state in the Midwest except for Indiana. Four years later, Trump wins every single state in the Midwest except for Minnesota and Illinois. He flips Iowa, winning it by nine and Ohio, winning it by eight. He then holds on to it in 2020. Even though Joe Biden won the electoral college, he still wins Iowa and Ohio by virtually the same margin. But then in 2024, Trump wins both by double digits. Iowa by 13 and Ohio by 11.
And so JD Vance's connections to the Midwest will be a huge asset for Republicans if he is the nominee. Of course, Vance was a first term senator from Ohio when he was elected vice president last year. And Republicans need him here not because they want to win Iowa and Ohio specifically, but because of the importance of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three key swing states that won Trump the elections of 2016 and 2024, but helped Biden win in 2020. And so, the importance of the Midwest is one of the big reasons why people are betting on Vance and why Republicans think he would be the most strategic choice on top of the fact that he's the vice president.
According to the market odds on Koshi, Vance has a 47% chance of being the Republican nominee in 2028, followed by Marco Rubio at just 10. And in third, it's actually Marjorie Taylor Green coming in at four. And then for the Democrats, it also makes sense that Vance was chosen as the nominee by AI for this prediction as he does have a 35% chance of winning the primary. The AOC is in second at 9 and then former Vice President Kla Harris, if she decides to run again, is at six.
And so unlike in the past, we have a pretty clear favorite for both of the nominations. On the Republican side, it is Vance and for the Democrats is Newsome. And so that is why this prediction is not as speculative as it might seem, even though we are quite a few years out from the election, as it is pretty likely that this will be the matchup. Maybe not the running mate, but at least the election between Vance and Newsome seems significantly more likely than any other possibility.
And now continuing to fill in the map. We're going to fill in the likely states for the Democrats. Now, Gavin Newsome and Josh Shapiro, they're easily going to win Colorado and New Mexico. These states will be slightly competitive. Trump did campaign in New Mexico in 2024. However, Democrats do generally win both of them by around 8 to 12 points. We also have Illinois, which is pretty interesting because for three election cycles in a row starting in 2012, Democrats won Illinois by 17 points. For Obama, it was 16.9. In 2016, it was Hillary Clinton winning it by 17.1. And then in 2020, Joe Biden won it by exactly 17. So, we have three Democratic candidates in a row winning Illinois by the same margin. But just four years later, in 2024, Kla Harris wins the state by less than 11. This is a huge deviation from what we've seen in the past. And so Illinois is now no longer a solid blue state for now because of Harris's poor performance. Chat GPT has placed it into the likely column.
And then we have two more likely blue states all bordering the Atlantic. Starting off with New Jersey. This is just like Illinois except even more extreme. As in 2020, Joe Biden carried the Garden State by 16 points. And then in 2024, Kla Harris won it by just 5.9. That is a 10point difference in just four years. New Jersey is now among the most competitive states in the country. And so Gavin Newsome is probably not going to win it by over 15 considering Harris's performance. He's also probably not going to win Virginia by 15, although that would be a remarkable performance if he did. Virginia is generally blue with Biden winning it by 10 and then Harris winning it by five. Newsome will probably win it by somewhere in the middle of those two margins.
And so this is it. We have just 10 states left and one congressional district in Nebraska. These states will actually decide the outcome of the election. And with the likely and solid states filled in, the race is still very close with Democrats at 209 and Republicans at 219. And so all of these states have a lean or tilt rating. Lean ratings being margins from 1 to five and tilt margins being any that are less than 1%.
And so to make things interesting, we'll begin with the lean Democratic states first. These are generally states that you would expect Democrats to win. However, because of their poor performance in 2024, Chat GPT has placed them into the likely category. And so starting off in Minnesota, Kla Harris only won Minnesota by four points, even though Tim Walls was the state's literal governor. Compare this to 2020 when Joe Biden won it by seven. And also keep in mind that Minnesota is the state with the longest Democratic voting streak in presidential elections. No Republican has won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972. Trump actually came very close to flipping it in 2016 when he lost it by just 1.5% to Hillary Clinton. And so in 2028, Newsome is probably going to win it by around two to three points. It is going to be close, but Democrats do still have a slight edge. And we see a similar story in New Hampshire and Maine. Democrats do generally win here. However, the margins can get a lot closer than they are comfortable with at certain times, especially in 2016 when Donald Trump came within half percentage point of winning the Granite State. And then in Maine, he lost by less than three. And so given JD Vance's polling lead nationally, it makes sense that both New Hampshire and Maine were placed into the lean blue category. And then we also have the second district of Nebraska, which over the last few cycles has generally been voting blue.
And now we're left with the seven familiar swing states from 2024. And we're now going to move on to filling in the lean states for Republicans. Starting off with probably the most obvious one, and that is the Tarhill State of North Carolina. 16 electoral votes. This is the only battleground state that Trump won in all three of the elections that he ran in. In 2016, he won it by nearly four. In 2020, he won it by one. And then in 2024, he carried it by 3.2. North Carolina is likely going to continue voting Republican, giving the Vance ticket an additional 16 electoral votes.
Neighboring Georgia will be lean red as well, especially considering the fact that Trump won the state in 2024 after narrowly losing it in 2020 to Joe Biden by less than a quarter of a percentage point. This was the closest state in the entire 2020 election. But Georgia generally is still more Republican than it is liberal. It's probably going to elect a new Republican governor in 2026. And so it makes sense that AI placed it into the lean red category.
And then we have one more in the Sunb Belt and then one in the Midwest. Starting off with Arizona, 11 electoral votes. This will also be lean red. It's similar to Georgia in that Biden carried it in 2020 by a very narrow margin. And for both Arizona and Georgia, the last Democrat to win either of these two states was Bill Clinton in the 1990s. But unlike in Georgia, Trump actually performed significantly better in Arizona than in Georgia four years later against Kla Harris as Trump carried Arizona by 5 and a half points. This is a huge swing considering how close it was just four years prior. And so with Gavin Newsome as the governor of California, Vance is probably not going to perform as well in Arizona as Trump did, but it's still going to be a victory nonetheless. And then the final lean state on this map will be Michigan. 15 electoral votes going in favor of Vance and Rubio. Of course, it does neighbor Ohio, and this is where Vance's advantage in the Midwest comes in. It is what gets their ticket over 270 electoral votes. The reason why Michigan went first for the GOP before Wisconsin is likely because in 2024, Trump won Michigan by 1.4. Wisconsin, the margin was less than 1%.
And so the three remaining states are all going to be incredibly incredibly close. They're all going to be decided by less than 1% at least according to AI's prediction. And so we're going to start off with Nevada. Just six electoral votes. It is of course the state that neighbors California. And that is the main reason why it goes to Newsome in this prediction. It's going to be by a very narrow margin. Ironically, Republicans actually won Nevada in 2024 for the first time in two decades before Trump's victory here. No other Republican had won the silver state since George W. Bush back in 2000. But with Gavin Newsome on the ticket as the nominee, the state could flip back and give the Democratic ticket an additional six electoral votes.
And then shifting our focus back to the Midwest just one final time, we have Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Both of the states went for Trump in 2016 by less than 1%. And then in 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by less than one, Pennsylvania by 1.2. And then most recently, of course, Wisconsin was tilt and then Pennsylvania was won by Trump by 1.7. Of course, Wisconsin has actually been tilt in all three of the last three elections. And Chachi believes that it will be a tilt state once again with it going to the Vance Rubio ticket by the narrowest of margins. And then in Pennsylvania, the main reason why it's going to Gavin Newsome is because Josh Shapiro is the state's incumbent governor. That's the biggest reason why it will deviate from Wisconsin and Michigan. All three of these states have actually voted for the same candidate in every single presidential election going back three decades. The last one where they did it was in 1988 in the election of George HW Bush. But according to Chad GPD's prediction, Pennsylvania will be tilt in favor of the California governor.
And so this is it. This is the 2028 presidential election map based on Chat GPT's latest prediction with Gavin Newsome and Josh Shapiro as the Democratic candidates and JD Vance and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominees. And this result does make sense. Looking at the betting markets on Cali, JD Vance is the clear favorite to be the 49th president of the United States. Gavin Newsome in second place at 20%. And like I said earlier on, this is by far the most likely scenario at this point. And if this does happen, things are looking good for Republicans as Vance is on track to win 287 electoral votes to Gavin Newsome's 251.
Thank you guys so much for watching. Make sure you like this video down below if you enjoyed it. Comment down below who you think will win the 2028 presidential election. And make sure you subscribe to the channel for more unbiased content just like this leading up to the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election.