Transcription
Today, we're going to talk about the only scenario that can save Bitcoin from its bearish dynamic. I'm going to give you an update on that. It's going to be quite interesting. We've had a rebound, but unfortunately, there are no signs of a bottom yet. We'll talk about that too, we'll do a bit on Ethereum, and I think we'll talk a little today about what's happening regarding tariffs in the United States. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is available and free. You keep 100% of the gains. Once again, past performance is not indicative of future results. We've given you a quarterly performance report on the SPT algorithms. For example, there are also the LIM algorithms and all the other algos in the Discord. For instance, in the 3rd quarter, the SPT algo generated 14R, and in the 2nd quarter, it generated 19R. This simply means that over this given period, it generated almost 13 times more gains than the risk taken in total on the trades. Obviously, I repeat, past performance is not indicative of future results. To access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. It will take you to this page. You just have to click on the first link right here to register on Bitgate via our partner link because it's on Bitgate that we run these algos. Make sure to go through this link, otherwise it won't work. And once that's done, you just have to click on the second link. It's a short video that explains absolutely everything about how to configure the algos. But you can also get my mentorship for free. It's my most complete training on price action. There are 24 videos waiting for you. And you also get access to the crypto VIP on Discord with the Alcoin VIP. This is where I will share the best opportunities on Altcoins when I see them, because for now, there isn't much from my point of view.
So, to get back to BTC, what's happening right now is very important. The United States, I'll keep it brief, we'll see if theoretically the United States will maintain Donald Trump's tariffs or not. And so, broadly speaking, if it's rejected, meaning if the tariffs are cut, then theoretically it can be positive for one thing. Why? Because, in essence, why did Donald Trump implement tariffs in the United States? He implemented tariffs to generate tax revenue, to lighten the tax burden on his citizens and businesses, to attract talent to the United States, companies that want to establish themselves in the United States because in Europe, there's a flight of entrepreneurs who are going in large numbers to Asia and the Middle East, and Donald Trump knows he's losing entrepreneurs because the Biden administration was too fiscally aggressive. So Donald Trump, what he wants to do, what he wants to implement, is to reduce taxes for corporations, individuals, and so on. But then, since he spends a lot of money, he can't reduce taxes too much either, because otherwise the deficit and debt will widen even further. So, what he has to do is find tax revenue, and that's what he did with tariffs. Now, if tomorrow the Federal Court in the United States says, "Well, listen, your tariffs are illegal and we're removing them," what will happen is simply that this tax revenue will be lost, and his plan for the "beautiful big bill," as he calls it, to be able to give money thanks to tariff tax revenue and to provide a significant tax abatement to attract new entrepreneurs and try to stimulate the American economy even more, this plan will fall through. But also his plan to impose tariffs was to facilitate the repurchase of American debt, or rather to facilitate the rolling over of debt. And so, if the court in the United States refuses all of this, or rather says tariffs are good, they're finished, then theoretically, what will have to save us, apart from Trump's tariffs which generate quite significant revenue, will be the Fed. And so, if the Fed, or rather if the Supreme Court says tariffs are dead, then it will simply be the Fed that will have to cover the rollover of American debt. And what does that mean? It means implementing bond buybacks. So it will be buying back bonds itself, most likely. And so, naturally, the market will react from a risk asset perspective because, in fact, if the Fed starts buying American bonds, it won't conjure money out of thin air. So, it will stimulate liquidity. So that would be something theoretically positive. So, this is really the news that could be very positive for the markets, at least for risk assets. Which would mean that the money printer will continue to run. Now, if the tariffs remain in place, obviously, in any case, I think the Fed will have to intervene for the rollover of American debt. It might be to a lesser extent, and in any case, it won't change the situation since Trump's tariffs have been in place for a long time. The advantage also is that if the tariffs are removed, it could curb inflation and therefore could also facilitate a Fed that can lower rates. So, this is really a very important period. After all, again, for me, it's the price that will tell us what's happening, whether it's positive, negative, and so on. I remind you again that I made a video about this last week, which was about the good news of the China-US agreement, meaning tariff reductions on China, and also the end of QT in December, but yet that didn't prevent the support from being broken in a bullish market. Good news is supposed to bring us back to resistances, not break supports. So, this is still a strong signal that the market's dynamic has deteriorated.
Now, the scenario that can save BTC is the fact of coming, so that's done, that we've come to take the stops from the October low. So that has been done. So if you look at the monthly chart, the October low has been hunted, and it would simply be Sunday to close above $107,000. That would create another huge wick that has purged the stops with a close inside the support. And that's the most bullish scenario I personally see, as it would prevent the formation of the breaker block. And in fact, it's this breaker block that will reverse the dynamic. That is to say, if we close below $107,000 like this this week, this breaker is validated, and what's likely to happen is a rebound from the breaker and potentially, in the coming weeks, to test these fair value gap zones. On the other hand, if by Sunday evening, the price revalues this week's entire drop and it ends up being a large wick and we close in the green or at least above $107,000, we will have maintained the order block. So it won't be a breaker block, and all the sellers who sold this week will be trapped, and their stops will be above this high, or even above the ATH. And that's the scenario that can save us. That is, we get a magnificent close, and then the following week, boom, we take the opposite position on all the shorts, and then we find ourselves very close to the ATH, and we can even put pressure above the ATH. That's the only bullish scenario I personally see that can save BTC from this bearish dynamic and lead it to deeper retracements.
Also, we need to talk about the dollar, which is starting to form a rather bullish structure. Now, the dollar doesn't necessarily impact US indices, but we've realized over time that it does impact BTC quite a bit, which, when the dollar is strong, can sometimes be in difficulty, sometimes not, sometimes yes, but most of the time Bitcoin is in difficulty. Here, we can note that the dollar is forming a bottom structure. And so, what to observe on the dollar for those who watch my macro reviews is rather on the Euro USD side. That is to say, if we see a very strong reaction of the Euro USD on this quarterly low, we see that we haven't hunted the stops, so we risk coming back to it. But if we hunt the stops and it reacts well, theoretically the dollar could fail to form this bullish structure. Now, that doesn't mean it will be the case, but for example, what would be super bullish for BTC is a dollar that gets rejected here and goes back down. Basically, we just take the stops and re-enter the range, because this is a range here. However, if the price breaks, which is currently the case, but then the dollar just retests the previous leg a bit without breaking the last low, then we could see an even more bullish dollar. Now, you know my bias, for those who watch the macro reviews, personally, I'm bullish long-term on the dollar. I think the dollar has made a bottom here, or at most there will be one last dip here, but I think the bottom is in this zone. I think we'll retest the top of the range in the coming months, maybe even next year. And so, well, I have a bullish bias on the dollar. Now, there's always this scenario of the dollar getting rejected here, but a bullish dollar can cause some harm to the indices, or rather to BTC. And when we look graphically, we see that it's a bit the case. Here, when I superimpose the two, we clearly see that a dollar putting pressure upwards puts pressure downwards on BTC. So, if the dollar continues to put pressure upwards, it can impact BTC. So, you have all the important information. Okay? For now, it's impossible to say "Yes, the bottom is in, it's done." We know here that a lot of volume has been executed, so there are a lot of stops, a lot of liquidations have been triggered. That's a fact on the October low because everyone who bought in this range had their stops here and they've all been taken out. But the only thing that bothers me about derivatives is that people aren't closing their positions on the downside. And that's a bit problematic. Generally, people are afraid and they close their positions, short sellers exit, take their profits. That's not the case here. That is, in fact, we continue to add to open interest. So, which means that people continue to add positions, and so, well, that's what creates longs and shorts, but in a bearish movement. And when the market is rather bearish, we see it on the ETF side, there are always outflows, well, the market might be tempted to go look for liquidations even further south. So, there's an interesting cluster, it's the last low here, the June low which covers the monthly fair value gap between $95,719 and $98,000. That's potentially a zone we could go for. What I'll be watching on this rebound is the last fair value gaps here. For example, we have this bearish fair value gap that has formed. We also have this one. This one is a breaker gap. Okay, this one is a fair value gap. So, theoretically, we could expect the market to come into this fair value gap. If we get rejected, we'll probably go for the stops that have accumulated below these lows. All those who bought have all their stops here. That is, all those who are buying this rebound, their stops are there. So, the market could try to go and purge these stops.
We'll look at the hourly chart. Again, the prices are interesting. That is, it's more interesting to buy low than to buy high after a drop like this for several days with Bitcoin having lost 15%. These are interesting prices for Bitcoin. That doesn't mean I'm going to short here to try and play the high. You can do it, but if you don't know how to manage your risk, it's useless. If you don't have a strategy for, for example, what we see on the hourly, for now the price hasn't managed to break free from the last descending high, and also the price has just formed order blocks. So, in fact, this indicates a rebound, but nothing more. What we see here is that a bearish order block has already formed, which is rejecting the price. Now, that doesn't mean we're going to go back to $98,114, but it remains a target that the market might try to reach. And on the CME side, a similar zone, well, it would be to start working this fair value gap zone right here between 80. Now, it's the CME, but between $98,000 and $92,000, if the CME makes a small wick in its FVG, that would allow us to reach our monthly low, which covers the monthly fair value gap. But I really think the market will be motivated to recover the stops below the lows, and then that could really be a very good zone. Again, I'm nitpicking, it's a zone we could go for. The market might not go there. But as long as the bias remains bearish here on the daily, for me, the main objective remains to go below $98,000. The thing that can really save us, as I say, is for example, we come back to take the stops, or not necessarily, but really a close above $107,000 this week, that would be magnificent. It would really allow us to form a short squeeze by taking the stops of everyone who shorted here, and then we find ourselves quite close to the ATH and therefore see if we can make a new ATH. I'm not saying it will happen, far from it, I'm just saying that for me, it's the ultimate scenario that can save BTC because if we close well below $107,000 this week, we'll validate a breaker block, and then what's likely to happen is a retest of the breaker block but a rejection, so the price would have a chance to come back to test the breaker block and go down again. So, that wouldn't be the best scenario concerning ETH here.
So, we'll also look at the ETFs. There are still outflows. I'll spoil it for you, I've looked a bit. Now, they are less significant in recent days. It's slowing down a bit because on the US indices side, there was a rebound in the identified zone, the breaker block, our FVG zones, and so on. So, it's rather an interesting zone that was offered on the indices. Now, it's a zone that needs to be maintained. I see in the United States, they're talking about a bear market everywhere on the indices side, they're talking about a big correction, they're talking about, that's it, it's the end of the market. If you look at the fear tools, if I'm not mistaken, I saw a screenshot on Twitter but I don't know how to retrieve it, the one for indices on CNN. Normally, the markets are in extreme fear on the US indices side. Yet we are at an ATH. So, in fact, this proves that every dip is an opportunity. So, it's a good zone here on the indices. So, that could slow things down a bit. What I'll be watching on the indices is potentially coming to recover yesterday's low. And there, I think it would be a good opportunity to take the opposite position. And so, on BTC, if we follow this, it could potentially go for $98,000.
Now, on Ethereum, to be brief, the very important zone remains 382. It remains the last order block here on the daily. We are working on this order block zone. Starting to settle below 382 wouldn't be very positive and would indicate more rebounds but with descending highs to unfortunately continue to fall, potentially heading towards the reload zones. So, for me, this zone here is very interesting. We've come to recover the monthly low of the candle in which we've been stuck for 1, 2, 3 months. It's the 3rd month we've been stuck in this monthly candle. We've come to recover its low. Theoretically, if we manage to establish a bottom here, we could very well head towards a new ATH in the coming months. But to do that, the price really needs to reverse, which isn't necessarily the case yet. So, we can see that there's a lot of volume, a lot of stops, and a lot of liquidations have probably been triggered. Many sellers panicked here, but we see it thanks to the volume. We know that there's really a wave of panic that has been triggered. But again, it's too early to talk about a reversal. The prices are good, but from a technical point of view, we can't say "Yes, it's good. We can act with more probability that the market has reversed here." That's not necessarily the case. We see for now that the last descending high is defended, that the market has closed the fair value gaps behind it which are vectorial and often have a high chance of being closed, which is the case, but for now it's being rejected in this zone. So, it's too difficult, it's too early, sorry, to talk about a bottom. Now, it's an extremely interesting zone. I mean, if Ethereum is supposed to make an ATH soon, the zone to buy is here. In fact, nothing more, nothing less. It's about recovering the stops here. At the level of 382 in these FVG zones, you can't do better. Now, if the price doesn't react more here, well, it can go to reach the next zone of $1895. Again, in investing, there's always a risk. The really interesting zone is here. I'm not saying we won't go lower. What I'm saying is that from a technical point of view, if we're not supposed to enter a bearish swing and offer us a reload zone, it would be much lower price zones in the coming weeks. Theoretically, it's to say that the bottom is happening, it's here, it's before our eyes. It's not yet visible technically, but in theory, the bottom zone is here. That doesn't mean we'll bottom out here. It's just that if the market is to bottom out without launching a bearish swing, it's here that it must do it. So, this is where we have the opportunity on Ethereum. Everyone got stopped out on the last upward leg. We are at the level of the first stop. You know the rule. As long as it's defended, we can make a new ATH. That's why I say the interesting zone is here. And if it breaks the first stop, we'll have to accept that there are risks of filling more fair value gaps around $2600 and even why not go to 618 at $2429. You know the rule when the market breaks 382. Like here, for example, very often there are returns to reload zones, like here too. Hop! When we broke 382, there was a quick move to 618, that's often the rule. So, that's why this level must be maintained.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the like button, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. Lots of free content for you. We'll see you very soon. Talk to you later.