Transcription
Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm on this finally Friday. So, it's been to be honest quite an uneventful week. I was hoping for a little bit more green action across the board, but I don't get to control the markets. I think some people think I do, but no, I don't. I just get to say what I see and then wait and see if it plays out.
So, anyway, today we're probably going to jump around quite a bit. I think this is all going to be kind of random, but hopefully there's some value in here and I'm going to spend a little bit of time copy and pasting a couple of fractals on Bitcoin's chart for you because I'm pretty sure we have to do a consolidation cycle from here. So, I'll show you that in a moment.
First things first, I wanted to point to this. Okay, no changes just yet to the rate probabilities, but I am still calling for around one more week of this to maintain as it is. And then from there on, the last two weeks of the month, I expect this to start to repric in this direction before ultimately putting a 25 basis point cut in play with this down here somewhere. Okay, and that should be that. So tell that to the bond market. Of course, invalidation for this is simply that it does not happen.
Found this. This is kind of random, right? The UK is considering banning X according to the Telegraph. So, I mean, what do you do? And the bigger question is, what am I what am I going to do? Going to have to get rid of a bunch of tabs and make it into a PowerPoint or something? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it's not going to happen. The fact that we can even consider something like this in this country is pretty wild if you really think about it. We are a communist dictatorship masquerading as a democracy.
Jim Kramer has told investors to avoid buying stocks. So, that's got to be a point in the bull's favor, I would think. Meanwhile, don't tell me I'm too bullish, okay? because I don't know of any bigger Bitcoin bull out there than GE. GE is still calling for a measured move target to be made here in almost immediate fashion. So 400 odd K or something like that. 380 to 500K is his his target, not mine. I mean, I'm here for it. Don't get me wrong. I'm you're not going to hear a single complaint out of me if this occurs. And you'll see me do what I always do, which is draw a trend line in here and look to sell the breakdown. But once again, don't tell me I'm too bullish, okay? because I think to call for this is fairly reasonable by comparison.
Bob Lucas put out this thing yesterday and a bunch of people were tagging me in it. He's trained an AI model with 10 years of his work. He says there's still a lot of tweaking to do, but this AI model has spat out three scenarios, right? The bearish scenario, as you can see here, where the cycle has already topped and is down only until the 4-year cycle low. 55% probability. It's also weighing a 30% probability here that we're going to just continue to go sideways and distribute. That would be my red squiggle I guess something like this and then down into the four year cycle low and there is a 15% chance according to the AI model that we have got new highs left in this right bullish continuation as you can see down here and that would probably look something like this okay so we'll find out.
In other news, the Bitcoin and crypto lows are in according to Bernstein. The analysts are pointing to 80K in late November as the cycle low. The four-year cycle fears are overstated as institutional demand drives adoption and Bernstein has maintained a $150,000 Bitcoin target for this year. I think in the more short term, Big Mike has nailed it here. I think this is what we've got to do as I'm about to show you from not just a cycle perspective, but from a fractal or historical price point thing for Bitcoin as well, too. So, I think this is right.
Okay. When Elliot wave aligns with cycle theory, it tends to be correct. Now, cycles predict time, not price. So, I'm calling for the low. I agree with the low. How far down it goes is anybody's guess. Big Mike could be right here in that it makes it down to about 82K, but it could easily, as far as I'm concerned, sweep the low, double bottom with a low. It could go significantly higher up and be bottomed right now. Just kind of chop sideways and do this. It's not the price that cycles care about. It's the timing window. But I don't think it's going to look too far different from this. And I'll show you exactly what I'm looking at now because there's been a couple of points in history. Here's one for example, and here's a second one where Bitcoin has done a 60-day consolidation cycle. So that's what I wanted to show you today. We'll grab this fractal here. We'll overlay it and you can see that it kind of looks something like this, right? We make a cycle low. We kind of chop around sideways and then we have to pull back, make a timing base low somewhere in here and off we go. Now, if so, then again, we would come down to I don't know 86, maybe 82k, something like that. If we drag this down a bit and then you can see that that correction that Big Mike is calling for here, we'll find a wave two and then we can emerge. And again, that kind of would fit from a cycle perspective as well.
We also did a very similar thing here where we make a cycle low in here. Okay, then we got a fake out failed cycle, a timing base low, and off we go. So, we'll copy and paste this one as well. And once again, you can see that we make a cycle low, we kind of chop around in a range, we make another cycle low, timing base low. In this case, this one's a higher low. As you can see, this would have us bottom somewhere around 85K. Again, if it's lower down, like I don't really care. Okay, but from a timing perspective, we've already gotten through three quarters of this cycle, haven't we? We're already on something like day 48 or something. I'll get the real count for you in a moment. Yeah, day 49 is today. Okay, so we're not likely to just explode from here. Okay, we have to reset the cycle. We have to at least get into that timing window around day 54 sometime between say day 54 and day 60. Okay, and in that neighborhood then we can look for the cycle to have fully consolidated for every man and his dog to have flipped bearish and say this is a bare flag because they don't understand that the cycles are going to do cycle things. The cycle will reset and then it will be a new daily cycle ahead of us.
Now, of course, this is the most bullish scenario, okay, where we just explode higher. I'm not necessarily saying that we're going to have to do this. Of course, I've been very, very clear that we could just have this red squiggle of mine, okay? But it would mean that from a daily cycle perspective, we've got a little bit more downside while we consolidate and finish this 60-day consolidation cycle just like we did back here, right, and back here. And then once that's complete, then we can look for at minimum a left translated daily cycle and failure. And hopefully in the more bullish case, we can look for a big push like we saw here.
I think we'll also get to learn something. There's a subtle tell here which I think is a hidden piece of alpha. If that low remains unswept, then I would say it is much more likely the red squiggle that's going to be in play here. Okay, for the simple reason from the weekly cycle low, we'd have already used up seven weeks. So that would mean that the kind of cut off for the left translation is somewhere between 14, 15 and 16 here. Okay, so that would be somewhere between late February to very early March. So we would have already used up about half of the cycle time here just putting in this consolidation. And that's if that low remains unswept. But if we come down and sweep this low, then we have to by the rules of cycle theory use the lowest low pivot as the label for the weekly cycle. Right? That's where we have to anchor the weekly cycle from. And that would mean that we can then move the left translation cutoff significantly to the right hand side. Okay? That would give us runway out to something like the end of April or even May. Significantly further than if this low remains unswept.
So, what I think we should be doing here, to be honest, is cheering on a new low. I think we should be cheering on a sweep of this low so that we can count that as the weekly cycle and then set us up for a big push later in life. Okay? But, you know, at the end of the day, we don't get to choose and we get to learn something either way. If we do not sweep this low, we do something like I was showing you earlier with a fractal higher low and go, then on a balance of probabilities, okay, the cut off remains where we had it the first place, okay, and we've probably only got a few more weeks of upside after that cycle low is in before then it rolls over. And are we likely to just do something like this, okay, and then explode to new highs? I don't think so. So either way, we get to learn something and the read over the market becomes clearer and clearer as this all unfolds. And really, that's all that matters, right? Because we can't control whether it goes to alltime highs or not. But we can control how we handle the chart, how we interpret the chart, and where we decide, okay, now it's time to get out before the serious downside unfolds. Okay, we can, as I often say, push the trade until it becomes unreasonable to do so. And really, our job is just to continue to push whilst we try to identify where it becomes unreasonable. Now, it's not unreasonable here by my strategy, by my system. My system says there's still a good chance that we shake out for the next week or so and then we have a good push. Okay? So from here especially because we have the privilege of getting in at the bottom you know we are not really in a big deal of danger here okay so long as we can stick to the cycles get a counter run bounce everything is fine it's still reasonable to push here but again if that low remains unswept then we know objectively speaking we've used up half of the weekly cycle already which means we have to start looking for the left translation and failure which means we can't really say the yellow squiggles in play at that point. Okay.
And again, we can also learn something either way because if we do sweep this low and then start to really fire off, it will kind of look much more like this. And then the yellow squiggle actually becomes much more likely. And it gives us a longer time frame for left translated cutoff. And you know, this is what really you should be trying to achieve from the market. You should be trying to have cut off points trying to figure out how you can interpret the chart the best rather than having it on the 15minute time frame or looking at those Twitter posts that look like this that say Bitcoin is crashing, right? And they only show this. Bitcoin is tanking, you know, like this is not helping anyone, okay? And zooming in on a red candle like this and then, you know, writing in people's comments or going on Twitter and saying, "Oh, dumping again, right?" You know, this is just not helping anyone. Instead, it's better to actually zoom out, see what's going on. Anyone that said it's dumping, shame on you, okay? Because it has crashed to levels not seen since 6 days ago. How embarrassing for you to be that much of a tape slave. So, don't be that guy, right? Be the guy that instead says, "Okay, we're going to have a system. We're going to stick to the system. and we'll use the system to guide us. We'll use the confluence of Elliot wave to figure out roughly where we could get a trade set up on. And again, we know things the market doesn't, right? We've got these tells and these clues that most people don't have.
So, if this low remains unswept, then we'll know objectively speaking, we've used up half of the time frame for the left translated window already, right? Meanwhile, the market will interpret that as bullish because it's a higher low. And inversely, if we sweep the low, the market will interpret that as bearish because they will say, well, that's a new lower low, right? Or a bare flag breakdown. we will know that we've now got even more runway ahead of us, right? So, in either case, we're going to get to learn something. In either case, we're going to have an advantage over everyone else.
I should say, if you want to learn all of this stuff and how it works, there's plenty of available material. You can go to the website, try that out for two weeks. Worst case scenario, you leave with a free indicator and a bunch of educational content. And if you like what you see, then you can use this indicator to pick all of the cycle lows and help you find tradable swing setups. There's also a PDF you can download with all the rules of cycle theory laid out step by step, including a risk management template at the bottom. So feel free to download that as well. There'll be a link somewhere down here for you to grab hold of that.
Elsewhere in the markets, we're still saying the exact same thing. Okay, we want this week's weekly candle close to be a nice big green one and then we can alleviate some of our concerns that we were perhaps setting up for something more like this spill fractal from back here. Okay, so we can alleviate our concerns about this if we can get a nice big green strong weekly close. If we go down to the daily time frame and copy and paste this fractal again, I still make the case we are a little bit susceptible to this right now and I would alleviate some of my concerns about this if we can get a nice green finish. So, so long as today is not a big red down day, then I think we can kind of breathe a sigh of relief that this is not really on the table despite a lot of people out there calling for it. But, I mean, there's subtle tells, right? Because the Dow's making new highs, the Russell made new highs as of yesterday. The semiconductors have been leading and they tend to lead tech, right? They're still pushing up. So, I think it's just the NASDAQ left to go now. And then happy days, right? Stock market is well and truly playing out as it per the cycle expectation and as per our expectations as well.
For the metals, we are still up for debate as to whether or not that is a cycle low or whether we've got to undercut that low one more time and then go. It looks to me like the low is probably already in and silver I think has got a long way to go. Of course, we are still holding these positions from all the way down in the weekly cycle low at the start of last year in the longer term accounts and we got some short-term leverage trades on as well which continue to push. So, I mean, it's just a long and strong keep pushing until such time as, you know, we think the top is in and the cycles are well and truly topped and we got some breakdowns. But at the moment, they're just going to keep going higher. So, who are we to question that?
I will say whilst we're here, I see a lot of people trying to call the bottom an oil. A lot of people laughing at me for saying things like there's still 50% downside on the table from here and the four-ear cycle doesn't bottom till late this year. I see a lot of people trying to point at news or geopolitical issues and say this, you know, there's going to be bullish oil and they're loading up on oil mining stocks or or drillers or whatever it is or petroleum stocks here. But I am still steadfast with this call since we called the top, right? Remember, we were one of the few people that managed to actually call the top here. We said that the sentiment didn't match on every one of these fake breakouts. We said there's no way all the balls are going to be right here. And we still are maintaining despite it being quite contrarian that we're nowhere close to a bottom yet in oil. And the fact that people literally are not even replying with charts when I say this, they are just laughing at me. Tells me that I'm right about that. So, I'm still expecting this to move lower. Of course, we've got invalidations as always, break out, change structure, change behavior, start to set higher highs and higher lows, and we're wrong. Cycle lows in already. But I it's just too way too early. I just don't think it's there. And I still think that sentiment just does not match at all. We need sentiment to be completely bearish. We need them to be calling for negative oil again, okay? And then we can talk about actually finding a low. And most importantly, we need to enter the timing window for that major pivot as well.
So other than that, what about some altcoins? Yeah, you know what I think of those. The Dixie is staging a capture and bounce at the moment, but I suspect this too soon shall pass. And the yields are still completing a backup here, but we will of course see some colder CPI prints next week. We will probably also get some weak jobs data and then as I said, we'll get that repricing in favor of putting a 25 base point cut on the table.
The last thing I wanted to point out actually there's two things is the TLT trade. We are slowly setting up for that. Okay, so patience is a good thing and good things come to those who wait. If we go on the weekly time frame here, we are very close now, just a few weeks away by my estimation to getting a confirmed weekly pivot in place. And that's where I want to load the boat. Load the boat, of course, is a kind of misnomer because we will of course always have our risk managed. But remember, the tighter the stop, the more leverage we can crank on. There's a tutorial on leverage in the tutorial playlist if you're not sure what I'm talking about. And of course, we need to add some trades into the JISA series. This is the one I'm planning to add because my son is currently underperforming at the moment. So, we really need to do something to boost the account performance there. We've only put one trade on. It is profitable in there, but you know, we uh we don't really do mediocre, right? We don't really do marginally outperforming the benchmark on this channel, right? I hold myself to the highest possible standard and that includes the GIS series. So, expect this will be a fantastic trade when we get it on.
I will say this, if you're brand new to this channel and this is the first time you're seeing this yellow squiggle, please do note, okay, I think this is an overly ambitious yellow squiggle. I don't expect it to be this bullish to the upside. I don't expect it to be this aggressive to the upside. I am calling for about a buck 50 somewhere in this neighborhood in the next 12 to 18 months, okay? But I think most of that is going to come much later in the stages. I don't think this is just going to kind of make a bottom and then moon to 150. So keep that in mind, right? This is probably an overly ambitious yellow squiggle, but I think the overall direction is not going to be far from the truth.
The last thing I wanted to point out, which I kind of forgot about when I was doing Bitcoin a minute ago, but it is important, is despite the Bitcoin performance and despite the chop and consolidation that we probably need to reset that daily cycle and get that consolidation cycle in play, we are seeing some leadership, right? And leaders lead, remember, and Lagard's lag in some of these crypto stocks like Riot's looking at down sight more bullish, isn't it? Wolf is also looking at down sight more bullish. hut is at new highs. Okay, so again, like I don't think this is nothing. I think this is serious. I think this is leading to the upside. And I've been saying this pretty much every time we've seen the miners lead to the upside, right? I also think it's hilarious that more and more people are getting suckered into these BS narratives and saying, "Wow, this isn't because of Bitcoin. This is because these are now data centers or AI centers and it's an AI trade or whatever it is." But to be honest, it's just narrative, right? The cycles are in control. The cycles are doing cycled things. The cycles said they would do this and they're doing it. So, I don't care if you want to blame this on them being AI and not Bitcoin. I don't care what you want to call it. I don't care if you want to blame it on a president or whatever, okay? But the cycles told me this would happen and they're happening. So, I'm not really concerned with anything other than that. Long and strong. Continue to push. We'll see what happens from here.
And so, other than that, I hope you have a fantastic weekend. If you're a level three member, I will post a members only video for you guys tomorrow. I will also post a weekend's deep dive video. So, please do come back and check that out. If you want to learn how to trade cycles, if you want to get access to a bunch of free educational content and even a free watered down version of the indicator, then click here in about 10 seconds. And of course, if you decide you like it, then you can join the 2,000 odd people that are using this to increase their portfolio performance. So, you can click here in about 10 seconds to get started with all things cycles. Otherwise, have a fantastic weekend and I will see you tomorrow. Until then, take care from me. All the best. Cheers. Bye.
The man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Trees like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key ride.