Transcription
I don't have to be in a crash. I'm in a camp that doesn't own any US equities. I think that's enough bearishness to begin with. This is the beginning of the end of the pro dollar. A crash really is not going to benefit anybody. As much as people would think somehow if the market fell 50% gold will zoom to the moon and all. The liquidity crisis that a crash would occur of loss of asset values here in the US so fast would be a trigger throughout the world and of course through our markets. China will definitely come out much further ahead in this than the United States could have ever imagined.
I'm back with Peter Grandage, founder of Granage and Co. And today we'll be going over what really motivates Peter Grandage to do what he does, which is to help investors in today's environment. In other words, what are the primary drivers that will still keep the economy going? What are some of the biggest risks that Peter Grandage sees on the horizon? And more importantly, um, what Peter has learned over decades of experience trading, investing for himself, for others, and how he can apply his wisdom to today's environment. Welcome back to the show, Peter. Good to see you again, as always.
Thank you, my friend, David.
Peter, I'd like to start by asking you to assess the current situation um globally. Right now, we have an announcement that perhaps the US and Iran will once again meet to have peace talks. The oil price dropped about eight, nine percent today on the day. Uh, meanwhile, the uh, chance of a Fed hike by this coming Wednesday in two days, well, I guess tomorrow by the time this airs, has now jumped to 38%. It was previously much lower. I'm interested to see why this would be a higher probability even though oil dropped, but we'll get to that. Right now, do you think that the Iran situation has either A been completely priced into the markets, or B it's an ongoing concern and we should just treat it as an ongoing concern, or C the markets haven't quite priced in the likely escalation or any residual risks? What do you think is happening?
Though Iran is the most amazing loser of a war I've ever seen based on Trump's announcement several months ago that they, they had lost. Uh, I really personally believe that, uh, they didn't lose and that they are doing a play out the clock with Trump. Trump has about five more weeks to kick around and you know, go back and forth. I'm going to bomb you. No, we're going to make peace. Once Labor Day kicks in, David, the November elections become real serious here and there's a real good chance a lot of polls, polls aren't always right, obviously, but a lot of polls feel at least the House will be lost, uh, by the Republicans and even possibly the Senate. I can just tell you this. If we see a change in just the House, the remaining time that Trump would have as president, uh, would be unlike anything we've even seen even in his first term or even when he wasn't president. And I, I think that's going to become quite an issue to talk about five weeks from now. But for now, uh, there's still some type of, I guess, hope on the US end that this Iranian war conflict or whatever you want to call it can be shown as a net positive for the United States. Right now, it can't and, uh, that's going to be, uh, a big talking point in, in the political environment, but it's also having worldwide ramifications as well. And the amazing thing is, in all of this, uh, such little talk about how we've drained our strategic petroleum reserve to the point where people have now grown concerned that if we continue to drain it substantially anymore, it could actually all cave in and what's ever left be gone. But this was something that we were supposed to count on for us in times of real bad times. And now that's another issue that's going to face a problem, especially if what I suspect, and this is, I guess, getting to the answer to your question, that is that the Iranian conflict is not going to be settled in a manner that two guys shake hands and we go about our business and everybody is happy-dory again. I think it will never be settled, uh, in the manner that would be conducive for the United States and therefore the net result will be is this is a change in the world. This is the beginning of the end of the pro dollar as the Gulf nations move away or not long count on the United States to be their shining, uh, uh, defender in times of trouble and also how China will definitely come out much further ahead in this, uh, and than the United States could have ever imagined. So all those things, if you look past the next few weeks and get in towards the end of the year into next year, this war is going to have a net negative on the United States and its markets.
Does America gain anything from this war, conflict, engagement, whatever you want to call it?
Yeah. Uh, maybe a hard lesson, uh, that, uh, think before you act. I think this, this conflict was not well thought of. I think we'll look back and we'll have Monday morning quarterbacking. Are they going to tell me with all the think tanks that exist in Washington on both sides of the aisle, no one knew that if we acted in just in an air campaign, that no one had a belief that Iran could stranglehold the Straits of Hormuz? And let's, let's, let's not lose sight of this. Even with the lull that we had for several weeks during the supposedly, uh, working towards an agreement, not much has gotten through, especially in, in markets other than oil and things like helium, fertilizer, and those etc. Those are real conditions now that are going to hit negatively on the world economy for many months to come. Even if it somehow returned to normal, which I don't think that we can return to normal. I guess the only positive out of this, David, and it's going to take a couple years to show, is that most of those countries where they can are going to look for alternatives not to go through this trade anymore. Use pipelines and other ways in order not to be caught in, in a buying like this in the future.
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Economists and analysts rely on data to indicate what consumer sentiment is going to be. One of the indicators is the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. Many others like it exist, including the one from the Conference Board, but I guess the best indicator is to talk to the people living, uh, in America. Now, I was recently in California. Um, I'd like to get your take, uh, and comment below when you're watching this. Comment below, uh, what you think is happening and whether or not your sentiment has weakened or strengthened the last couple weeks. But Peter, as you know, consumer sentiment generally tracks inflation concerns, inflation expectations, which follows oil. What are you noticing on the ground? What are you observing from people you've talked to and in your own life? How worried or apathetic are consumers?
So in our planning group, which is a fairly large planning group at almost $2 billion under management, we have clients throughout the United States, in fact, more out of our own state, New Jersey, than in a variety of business owners and professionals, and almost to a core, they all basically say, "Never has it been more challenging to conduct their business or be a professional." And you picked on a state where it's especially tough because of energy costs and other issues that take place in that state. We have such a separation now. It's, it's been tossed around a lot, the K-shaped economy. But here's the bottom line. The top 1% wealthiest Americans now own more assets than the entire middle class. And therefore, a very small but elite group at the very top of the pyramid have benefited greatly these last few years while much of America has gone sideways to down. Now, I always try to explain to our folks, uh, when they become clients or they're considering clients, that that group is a completely different group than you and I. They don't think in the same manner. First of all, they don't drive their own cars. Someone else drives it. They don't basically make their own food. Someone cooks it. They don't fly commercial. They have their own jets and all. They have yet to experience what the vast majority of Americans are experiencing, and that causes are rising faster than wages and income. And therefore, as a group, we have a, a bigger increasing problem. Now, I don't think we're alone in that. I don't think we're the only country in the Western world, but it is getting bigger and more significant as time goes on. And that's another negative that, that's a ball and chain that Trump and Trump supporters are going to see taken into the election. And so you're going to have cost of living, the war, and then of course, poor decisions, at least in my view, and I think it's played out that, that he took this big stick into a trade war instead of an olive branch. And that's what alienated a lot of countries. And here's the key that a lot of people are still not talking about. A lot of those countries were also people that supported our deficit spending. And now the numbers keep showing Japan, China, so many others lessening their ownership of US Treasuries, putting more of the burden in the US to continuing financing these multi-trillion dollar deficits that we run each year. That too is going to become a major issue for the election.
The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday to discuss and announce their plans. Right now, as we speak, the Fed Watch tool has a 38% chance of a hike, which is much higher than where it was, uh, just a few hours ago and just a few days ago. Peter, the outlook for the Fed, what do you think the Fed is going to be focused on this year? If not, inflation expectations, what else? If, could anything, let me phrase it this way. Could anything stop them from raising interest rates this year?
I don't think so. I think they, we already saw several members before the change at the helm, uh, leaning towards that. I don't think there was enough to say that the drop in consumer inflation because of the tremendous temporary drop in the oil is enough to convince the hawks that inflation is not going to get out of hand. It's a very close call. I, I, I wouldn't risk my life on either side of the bet. But I will say that the minimum we will get out of this is a much more pronounced ready to tighten the very next meeting based on what the inflation numbers will be now since that recovery somewhat in the oil price. And the big part of that is you can talk about how some of the oil prices impacted stuff and the decline, but we still saw hard inflation in the PPI number and, and that's part of the tariff and the continuing of Trump issuing more and more tariffs. It's a very close call. I wouldn't want to bet my life on which way they go. But I, I, I think one thing we have to remember is this. For years, we've been hearing the "don't worry, be happy" cow keep predicting of interest rates going lower. That's clearly off the table. There's not a chance in heck that there's going to be a cut. And quite frankly, not cutting interest rates here could do more damage to the, uh, I'm sorry, not raising interest rates here could do more damage to the bond market than if they raised it. I think if they raised it on Wednesday, people that are getting concerned as the tenure is starting to get closer to 5% could say, "Hey, wait. They're taking some action." By not taking it, we could actually open the door to run to that. But David, all of that really isn't as important now as what Japan does. Japan has become a focal point that if you're not watching it and following it, you better start watching it because it's going to play a key role. What happens not only in Japan but here and elsewhere.
All right, so speaking of Japan, the yen is now at the weakest level in almost four decades, and the situation is compounded by the fact that the BOJ is going to continue raising rates. That is the expectation. Tell us more about Japan. Why should Americans care about what's happening in Japan?
Well, it's been an ATM machine for a couple decades, not only for its health, but mostly for people that used the Yen carry trade, the rates that were down to zero, and it was liquidity to the rest of the world. But now it, it favors them greatly. If I was them, so to speak, to focus more about themselves and bring back some of these assets that they have overseas to shore up and make their economy better off and stronger, so they may not have to raise rates as high as they, they would have to otherwise. I have no doubt that they are going to move towards more interest in themselves. And part of that is the alienation that the president has given them based on trade policy that he put out certain things and then pulled the rug on them. So Japan and what happens in Japan is going to play a key role and I think it's a net negative for us. And also, we're seeing that area of the world now starting to break down from the melt-up at equity markets have seen because of all this excess liquidity that was floating around for years, uh, in Korea, especially even the Chinese market. The United States is the last one to go, but even there, we're seeing kinks in the armor now with some of the former greats and the AI stuff starting to come off, and I think we'll come to a point where it'll become every man and woman for themselves, and Japan will focus just about Japan.
Do you think rising interest rates in the US would compel capital to stay in the US, visa vie other nations like Japan, though?
Uh, we would have to raise it so much, uh, higher. I, I think the concern which is growing around the world is our ability to pay interest on our debt. Don't forget now, we still have to finance almost $10 trillion of debt that's coming due here. And I think it's going to take a 5% or higher ten-year in order to get that refinancing done, uh, satisfactorily. And, uh, if we decide and go again and go the short term again, that'll just make it that much worse a year or two from now. No, I, I think the cat is out of the bag. I think the United States has lost its world dominance. We're seeing a change of, uh, of world leadership, and we're seeing the United States, uh, in a sense, also going to be losing its dominance in, in the world money markets, especially since the dollar continues, not fastly, but slowly, to be more and more sold and not bought, irregardless of how the dollar index may rebound. We're still seeing less usage of the dollar as a world currency, and we're seeing a pickup now as most of the world knew that the BRICS were moving towards and going to implement policies that were going to include gold. Trump told them a year or so ago he was going to break their kneecaps. They, they waited him out. They know they only got maybe a couple more months before he has any real left of power because they're betting on him losing, uh, support in, in Congress, and then I think open door, we're going to see all the things that we've talked about for years. That's why China and other certain key central banks continue to buy so much gold because they know that change is coming and they're going to lead it in the world, not the United States.
So the central issue, if, uh, Tokyo loses control of both its currency and its bond market, what happens to US markets?
I think they get hit very hard. I think that I'm not in a camp of a crash. I'm not in a camp of seeing a 50 or 75% decline in a matter of days, weeks, or even a couple months. But if that happens in the manner that you put, I do think we get hit hard, and we don't have the support underneath, uh, that many people suspect. We've seen that now, just how fast the Max 7s have come off the AI, and now we're seeing trickery that we saw at the end of the last millennium when the telecommunication companies and all, when the, when the internet first came, and one was lending money to all the other people that were buying stuff from. That's what Nivea is doing now, and we, this is really a big concern now that the AI bubble and all the talk and all the things it was going to lead to is really put us in a dire situation on the debt level, and that too can implode. While we're continuing to see, while not on the front page every day, David, we just saw Blackstone lose two of its biggest managers of its biggest private equity and credit funds left, gone, quit. And I don't think people like that quit unless they feel there's a problem they want to get away from. So these are all issues I think are going to play out, and we might have just before Labor Day here in the US, uh, to see some steel support in the market, but after that, I think things are going to get very tough in our market as the political stuff moves to the forefront, and they can't keep covering up all the excesses that this stock market has, you know, taken well advantage of.
Why do you, why aren't you as bearish now than perhaps a couple years ago when I interviewed you? Uh, currently we have a frothy market by some people's estimates. We have a situation where the chip stocks have already fallen by some by the order of double digits, like Intel and SKH in Korea. Uh, interest rates are expected to rise, and yet some people still remain bullish. Why are you not in the camp of a crash?
I don't have to be in a crash. I'm in a camp that doesn't own any US equities. I think that's enough bearishness to begin with. Uh, by the way, uh, a crash really is not going to benefit anybody as much as people think, somehow if the market fell 50% gold will zoom to the moon and all the, the, the liquidity crisis that a crash would occur of loss of asset values here in the US so fast would be a trigger throughout the world and of course through our markets. You've seen that already at the beginning of this year because how gold got hit. Gold didn't get hit because any of the, the bullish factors changed. It got hit because people needed to raise liquidity, especially certain countries, Russia, Turkey, and others. So crashes are not going to benefit anybody. Rolling over and not performing well for several years is another matter. And that's the advice that I've given in our planning group why I don't want to have any US exposure to general equities.
Okay. What are you exposed to right now?
Well, I got back into the metals market, and, and that was a big move for me because I had been in it as an aggressive person, uh, from 2016, '17 to this late January. And then, as you remember, because of how, how everything went straight up, I decided to exit stage left and I sold all my shares too, except one. I have in recent weeks gone back in because the target that I had a brief trade below 4,000 to me was enough to want to get back in. And I think what's happened here is in many of the metals, not just gold, not just silver, but copper and base metals, the argument that we had six months ago when everybody was running to buy them has only gotten better. We're going to continue to have an ever-increasing shortages of key metals, including critical metals. The president said something so stupid today that it's, it's, it's chaotic. He said by January in 2027, we'll have all the critical minerals we need. Anybody in the critical mineral business knows how, how wrong that is. Because even if we was found suddenly throughout many states, all these metals which I have a trouble spelling and pronouncing, but we found them, Dave, we don't have the refinery capacity to make them into the metals to use for what we do. We have to send it to places like China and all. So the, the metals argument, uh, to me, and the corrective need that we had has been accomplished, and I still think we're going to have now the second leg of a three-legged bull market, and that's where the best gains, even though they don't come as fast as before, but they're longer-lasting, even to the point where I'm back looking at possibly getting back into the uranium market. Uh, so I, I see those things as much better opportunities for capital gains than anything in technology or some of the other areas that people, uh, you know, were raving about these last six to 12 months.
You, you make your own, uh, videos on YouTube where you, uh, do a series called "Pete Speaks." You address the, uh, in one of your more recent videos, I think released earlier today, you address the concern that higher interest rates are going to make the gold market stall, if not go down even further. In fact, large banks like Bank of America have recently lowered their gold forecasts. Bank of America has lowered it by 14% to $4,300 by the end of the year. Anyway, the concern, the general consensus concern is that the Fed is going to raise rates or bond markets will raise rates by themselves. Doesn't matter. Either way, real interest rates go up. That's bad for gold. You addressed this. What did you say?
Well, what I said was that is a, a misnomer and a mistake because the two greatest rises in gold in the 42 years that I've been at this is when interest rates went up the most percentage-wise in the 1970s and the beginning of this millennium when interest rates were near zero and now at 5%. We've had the two best gold rallies through that. That's a, that's an argument that doesn't hold water in my house. Okay. Now, the argument used to be, and this is where it came from, if interest rates go up, the cost of holding gold used to be high, which it isn't anymore, but also real interest rates is what matters. Was there a real separation between inflation and real estate and real interest rates? That's where the concern goes with people. I don't think it's going to be dramatic because here's the argument. I think short-term, meaning months to a year or two, rates can work higher and even test or get above 5% on the 10-year. But there's no way this country can afford much higher interest rates as they continue to have multi-year deficits because it'll become impossible for us to finance those continuing deficits and the debt that needs to be paid. So, I don't think we're ever going to see a double-digit interest rate. So, I'm not worried about interest rates killing the gold market. The only thing that killed this gold market rally is all the parabolic actions that people took causing things to go straight up. Parabolic rises always come to an end. They're like bottle rockets that occasionally turn into Roman candles. It was healthy. Uh, people forgot that gold had already risen triple digits last year and a couple hundred percent over the first last two years, and what we've gone through was a normal, needed, and healthy correction, and I think most of it is behind us, and I think that's the area where capital gains in metals, base metals, critical minerals, and otherwise are areas that to go to. And again, if you recall since you've been interviewing me, uh, my favorite metal just works higher. It's never had a serious enough correction that you could have sold it and got back in. And that's copper and all things, all things related to copper. Now, uh, tremendous supply and demand story. Uh, even owning copper stocks at this point in time, I would rather own than any technology stock.
By the way, here is the chart that illustrates your point. The two biggest bull markets in gold history, the 1970s and early 2020s, both saw interest rates rise. The interest rate, the 10-year yield here is in the, in the, in the blue line, and, uh, the gold chart is the bar chart. So, you're right, the 1970s saw both of these rise, and, uh, co-saw both of these things rise together as well. However, I will note that the underlying variable behind both of these instances in the bull markets of the 1970s and early 2020s, 2020 to now, is much, much higher inflation. So, basically, not hyperinflation, but really high inflation. And so, I, I would argue, and, uh, you know, please comment on this, Peter, if you disagree, that we will need a situation where high inflation persists in order for gold to go up, even if interest rates go up. Do you agree?
Uh, I, I love you to death. From the days you had your little deal in your apartment till now being [laughter] world-renowned. No. A real, real great commentator. You've done a great job. David, I will disagree with you. Uh, I think gold is going up because that's where the world is need to go to remonetize everything, and China is leading the way, and that's why they just continue to buy it. I think inflation's a second or third argument. It's not the lead argument for gold.
I see. Let's talk about your favorite metal then. Which is it now?
It has been and never changed, and that's copper.
Okay. Uh, copper right now though, still, uh, at all-time highs. Do you, do you think that copper is going to repeat, uh, just from a technical perspective, what gold experienced, which is, you know, a massive drawdown after going up so much? Is that, is that a concern for you, though?
Yeah. But you see, it's gone up, but it's gone up in a very steady and methodical way to where sharp rises did not cause people to say, "Well, I got to take profits. This is too far ahead of itself." And unlike previous markets or people that still use the Dr. Copper argument and all, those were days when the world had excess supply of it. So any turn in the economy would cause copper to go decline. We don't have that. You know, there's, there's a wonderful video, if I may mention, of someone, Robert Freeland. He speaks at an energy summit about copper, and he said, "Everything you need to know about copper in a four-minute video." We're going to need six Tier 1 copper deposits to go into production every year between now and 2050 just to meet the normal expectation of world growth, not including artificial intelligence and electrification. Do you know how many Tier 1 copper mines have been coming on board these last few years? You don't even need one hand. So, it's a market that has tremendous underlying support. It's working its way higher. In fact, now that you keep that chart up, all it's done is made a series of lower, higher lows and higher highs just for five years.
Well, can we, can we comment on why copper is still so critical and important today? I know it was used for construction during the construction boom of China. That was the main thesis for the two in the early 2000s. It's still used in construction. It's still used everywhere and everything today. But why will that demand continue?
Well, you just have to look around. Everything you're in, the buildings you're in, the technology stuff you're using, the, the cars and planes and everything you drive, it's all part of copper. It's the single best conductor of electricity. Until we find an alternative to electricity, copper is going to be a really, really important part. And [clears throat] unlike, uh, others, a lot of money has not been spent. And think about this, almost 25% of all the world's copper now comes from Chile. So what's happening in Chile? They're having tremendous social and political issues while their grade and ability to bring out that ore drops. So it's costing them that much more to take out the same amount of copper they were taking out 10 or 15 years ago. And Chile's not alone in that. And then some of the other areas of the world, the Africa, the Congo, where companies are not going to go and spend billions of dollars where every few weeks the person running the country changes. So the social and political, uh, and the economics worldwide for all sorts of mining play a critical role, and that's why you're seeing now, even in your country and in your particular province, you have perhaps the most bullish minister of mines in all of Canada that I've ever heard of. In fact, you should try to interview him, David. I never thought I'd hear a politician because they were always standing outside the Vancouver conference protesting with the people about owls and turtles and flowers and all. And the political movement behind the support to mining in no other place more than in Canada has been unbelievable to see that happen. So they recognize how important copper is going to be to the country and how much they need to get behind those who can find it, build the mines, and and bring it to bear.
Yeah, the political, um, atmosphere and attitude towards mining has shifted under Carney than Trudeau. Uh, I've seen that as well. Yeah, that's a good tip. I should probably get in on the government and see what they think. Uh, Peter, one last question. Um, what frightens you the most about what's happening right now in the world?
That you're not married yet? [laughter]
I doubt that's what's keeping investors, investors up. [laughter]
I, I, I think what concerns me the most is that there seems to be a movement away from common sense and principle morals all around the world. Um, certain people now believe that it's our way or the highway. People are not willing to mingle and truly try to work through things and share and give a little and take a little and all. And I think where I've seen it the most, other than from a religious standpoint, is Canada and the US. Listen, I, Canada was my second home for 25 years. I was there every month, twice a month sometimes. And I used to say you can go either side of the border and not only know you crossed the border. And now there's such animosity, and I can understand it from my Canadian friends towards the United States because of how our president has chosen to act. This is something that is going to cause large-scale deep division that continues to grow worldwide. And now when you start combining that with military things that now that can just suddenly wipe out all sorts of people or a country overnight, or so, it, it, it's concerning, other than because of my own personal faith. I have peace that this isn't all it, and therefore, even if something like that happens, it's not going to be the ultimate terrible thing. But I think we need to start to think about, uh, being more friendly. And no two countries were ever more friendly for most of my life than Canada and the United States. We were the two biggest trading partners. Uh, we got along so great. And I think that's an example of what's going wrong and not what's going right.
What does this end for Canada? I know that was the last question, but since you brought up Canada, I'm curious how the trading relationship between Canada and the rest of the world progresses. Mark Carney is making a concerted effort to diversify trading away from America only, and now he's making inroads with the Chinese. 49,000 Chinese EVs will come to Canadian shores this year. So what do you think Canada needs to do to maintain, uh, its econ, yeah, economic growth engine?
So polls now say that Canadians trust China more than the United States.
That's right. Yeah, I saw that.
That, that are out there now. Yet, uh, both of us are dependent, uh, on products that we make. We just, for whatever reason, had a president decide to take a big stick into trade talks instead of an olive branch. Uh, you know, this, this new trade deal, the old NAFTA, and now currently, they say the United States is seems to be closer to working a deal with Mexico than Canada and all. I, I think a lot of this is going to change after our election day. If I was advising the Canadian government, I'd say hold off everything until the day after election. I think it would become a, maybe easier to deal with the United States after election day because there's going to be a change, at least in the House. It's not to say that Democrats have all the answers or where they want to go. It's just that this president, I think, will finally have handcuffs placed on him and realize that he can't, even if he was sincere in his efforts, you can't go around beating everybody over the head and not try to get them to think the way you think. And I think [clears throat] that that's what's going to take place. And I think Canada is smart enough to be doing what you just said, and that's looking for other areas of the world where they can, uh, trade. And that's [clears throat] the, that's again the change of the world empire, and that's what happens when empires change, and this is what's happening as the United States moves towards, certainly in your lifetime. I'm an old man now, David, so it may still exist, but certainly in your lifetime, you will see the point where the United States is not the number one superpower in the world anymore.
Do you diversify away from America then, if that were the case?
No, I think there's always going to be opportunities. Uh, you know, one of the things that I always say is people stop thinking about China wants to blow up the United States with the too much. They sell too much stuff here. I'm not worried [clears throat] about China wanting to blow up the United States. I am worried about another group that wants to blow up the United States, but that's another story for another day. But I do think the movement away from the United States will continue. The dollarization, uh, will continue. And I think you're going to see not only the BRICS but other parts of the world, including the Gulf nations, start to work among themselves, excluding or limiting the United States going forward.
Well, Peter, I always appreciate your updates. Thank you very much for coming back to the show. Tell us where we can follow you.
Well, you can always follow me on my ex page, and please God, one day I'm going to read an invitation from you to your wedding.
You'll be the first to know. [laughter] Thank you, Peter. Uh, but, uh, yes, please do follow Peter. I'll put the link down below. Peter, thank you so much once again. We'll speak soon. Take care for now.
Take care, David. God bless.
Thank you for watching. Please do like and subscribe. I'll put Peter's links down below. Follow him there.