Transcription
Earlier I spoke with John Bolton on the state of war in Iran. Let's listen.
My colleague Ouija Jen talked to the president by phone today, John, and asked this question. What has to happen between now and declaring victory?
Let me quote for you the president directly. "Not much. We've had total regime change. These are different people than anyone has ever heard of before. And frankly, they've been more reasonable."
How do you evaluate that?
Well, I don't think it constitutes regime change to eliminate uh a lot of the top people and have precisely uh people who have the same ideology replace them. Uh the regime is the Islamic revolution and the faces may be different but the views are the same or if anything even more extreme. The president's talked a lot about how this negotiation has been going when the regime itself denies there's any negotiation at all. So we have a fundamental problem there. But regime change means removing people who believe in getting a nuclear weapon uh in engaging in terrorism against their neighbors and around the world or closing the straight of Hormuz at their will. And there's no evidence any of these lower level people who have been heard of by other people if not Donald Trump are in any way inclined to give up those threats to Israel, the Gulf Arab states, ourselves, and the rest of the world.
Is he telling himself a story when you see declarations from the president day in and day out as we have for the last couple of days that the regime has changed and there's expectations on Wall Street and elsewhere that this conflict's going to end very soon?
>> Well, I think he wants to create the impression that it's about to end to help keep the markets uh optimistic. That can only last so long. I think what it shows is he wants out. He doesn't know what to do. he hasn't thought through his objectives. Uh, you know, the administration officials say, "Well, regime change was never our goal." Well, if it wasn't, why does it matter that we're talking to a different regime? I mean, I think there's confusion and uh and real concern about price of gasoline at the pump and the political consequences. That's what's driving Trump now. Not America's strategic needs, but his political situation.
[clears throat] >> John, you've thought about this for a long time. Everyone knows you've been an advocate for changing the regime in Iran. That's clear. Do you think that this situation we are in now is more dangerous than if we had done nothing?
Well, in a sense, yes, because I do think many people, including the people of Iran, thought going back to January, that Trump was pursuing regime change. And Trump had an example last year, the 12-day war that Israel and the US waged against the nuclear program. We actually waged a one-day war. That's how you do limited operations. That's not the way this was advertised. And if we leave that wounded beast of a regime in power in Iran, it will it will build back all of its capabilities. The Russians and the Chinese will help them and we will have suffered a significant strategic defeat. If you haven't thought through what you might encounter in an effort at regime change, weighed the options, considered the consequences, then don't start it to begin with.
>> That's what other presidents came to the conclusion about, isn't it?
>> Well, I don't think it was that seriously considered before. I I certainly advocated it during the first Trump term and it didn't get anywhere and and so did BB Netanyahu. So something convinced the president that he could do it. And he's the one after all who said to the demonstrators back in January, "Keep protesting. Take control of your institutions. Help is on its way."
>> So help doesn't appear to be on its way, John. And you talked about a wounded regime. For 47 years, lots of American presidents have dealt with reprisals from the Iranian regime, direct and indirect. Would a wounded regime pose that same threat not just in the region, but possibly here in America?
>> I think that's absolutely true. I think the Iranians do engage in asymmetric warfare. We've had terrorist incidents in this country since the war began. I think we can expect more. That's why the Gulf Arab states, the Saudis, the United Arab Emirates, and others are saying to Trump, look, once this has been started, you can't leave us in a position where Iran becomes the dominant power in the Gulf. It's not just a return to the status quo before the war. Uh it's a real uptick in Iran's power over over global oil supplies.
>> Imagine you're speaking to the president right now, John, about this moment that he's looking into the next week ahead. What would you tell him? How would you advise him?
>> I I'd say I think the process of regime change has begun. Marco Rubio yesterday said he couldn't tell whether the people we were negotiating with could really speak for others in the regime. That's the whole point. That's how it began begins to come apart. We need the aid the opposition more which we haven't done nearly enough of and we have to keep pounding on the revolutionary guard and other instruments of state power to keep disintegrating it. This is still possible to win. And I would say to him, your legacy in history depends on one simple thing here. Victory.
>> Reza Palavi, the exiled crown prince, was at CPAC over the weekend, drew a pretty large crowd, and said, "Finish the job." Is he part of the answer to a regime that collapses and is replaced by something else?
>> Look, I think there are a lot of Iranian opposition groups here in America, in Europe, in the Iranian diaspora generally. I think it's a mistake to pick one winner beforehand. It's like measuring the drapes for an office you haven't won yet. Uh we need to concentrate on overthrowing the Ayatollas. The time to pick really not just new leaders, but an entire new system of government for Iran comes after this regime is gone.
>> John Bolton, always a pleasure. Thank you, sir.
>> Thank you, Major.