Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with BTC correcting again. We're doing a bit of a yo-yo. I will talk to you about the trade I closed yesterday as we saw it, well, in yesterday's preview. We will of course talk about altcoins, we will look at the altcoins requested for analysis: Tao, Egen, and Circle. And that's it, we'll do a review as usual with an uncertain market, quite difficult to trade. Right now, we'll talk about all of that again. Before I start, you have 3 days left to take advantage of the €200 offered on the Crypto Investor program. It's the best offer you'll find for the program. I invite you to click now on the first link in the description and read what you'll find inside the program, knowing that there are two modules coming. A module on securing your cryptos. There's already a bonus inside, but we're going to go into even more detail, really. We're going to create a full module, going into a lot of detail to really secure your assets in the smallest details because many people neglect this. And as long as you haven't had any issues, well, everything is fine, okay? But the day you have an issue, it's as if you got liquidated on your entire wallet. Okay? So, in general, it's not very fun. So, I'll share quite a few tips and a module that will arrive on everything related to airdrops, staking, how to take advantage, for example, in this kind of phase where the market is uncertain, where we can have good returns on our stablecoins like USDT, etc., or even other stablecoins, well, you have to know how to take advantage of it, and that's why a module is coming. We'll go into detail on how to even use certain DeFi protocols with a hot wallet. So, some might find it quite complicated to navigate. So, two modules are coming, that's really important. I remind you of the main point of this program: free lifetime updates because the market evolves. So, automatically, the program evolves accordingly. So, two new modules, of course, for those who join now, you won't have to pay for these two modules because, I remind you, it's a price that evolves over time. I'm adding a lot more value. There's support with it. Okay. I'm going to add additional coaching. Moreover, in the Crypto Investor program, there's already personalized follow-up via private message. I'm going to add coaching as well, just like I did with the Become a Trader program. So, it's a program that evolves, as I said. With the current offer, you will never be able to get a lower price than the current offer. So, you have 3 days left to take advantage of it. You have all the information by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, on BTC, we are correcting, okay, we have a market that is much harder to trade right now. We are coming back to test our 1-hour tunnels. And as I said yesterday, I wasn't particularly expecting a recovery at the level of this pump. Honestly, I expect a sideways phase. We saw it on H4, we had a weakening of the momentum with these bearish divergences that we see at this level. Lower highs on the MACD. Higher highs here, which indicates that the momentum is weakening. Bearish divergence validated, we are back in the red on the MACD. So, we are simply starting a sideways phase. We don't have an inversion of our dynamic. However, this 1-hour tunnel must hold. If we lose this 1-hour tunnel, the objective is to reach the 4-hour tunnel around $117,000. A very good confluence zone and a strong level to defend. If we lose this level, honestly, we would lose a significant level, and for me, we would potentially be at the end of the bull run, to be confirmed by daily closes. We'll have to see by then, in the meantime, a lot can happen. But why do I say that? Because we've already had a liquidity grab and reintegration here. If we have another liquidity grab to reintegrate downwards again, yes, that shows us that we are experiencing a significant exhaustion. It's possible it's to create an even larger range, but overall, I expect to come back to very low levels. So, for now, we are in this short-term sideways phase. We are in the 1-hour tunnel, nothing very alarming, unless, as I said, we start to lose the 1-hour tunnel. So, yes, a market that is harder to trade right now, rather in a phase where, well, if you have cash on hand, take advantage of it to, as I said just before, put your cash into staking to benefit from it. Don't leave your cash on an exchange doing nothing. That's completely stupid. Might as well take advantage of it. Now, if you don't know how, that's perfectly normal, but well, do your research, learn about it. Be careful, of course, if you go into DeFi, etc., it's automatically much more dangerous than if you do, for example, staking on a centralized exchange. Now, automatically, you have higher returns. But it's important to inform yourself. You can still get good returns that can compensate, like this, over an uncertain period. Well, you simply make your cash work for you.
So, BTC, it put in its top at $124,000, exactly where I took my profits. Here, I had a good TP zone. We saw it together in yesterday's video. I entered at the time of this reintegration. Partial closure at the 15-minute tunnel level, okay? So, 50%. And then, I had a total closure at $124,000. As I say, it was mentioned in yesterday's video. Now, I don't know, I expect a top and a market that does this, but in any case, I expected to have difficulty continuing for various reasons. In fact, $124,000 is a major key level. Firstly, it's a psychological number. Generally, we can expect quite a few sell orders. We also have a daily pivot point here that acts as resistance. It's this entire imbalance zone. Here, we had a significant imbalance, which simply indicates strong selling pressure. If I draw a Fibonacci, we are around 0.786, $124,000. So, there are quite a few confluences, data, indicators, tools that led me to believe that the market could react downwards here. Well, in the end, that's what we did. We started a good correction. After that, it doesn't matter. At the moment I took profit, whether the market does this, does that, or does that, it changes nothing in my life. Yes, for my spot holdings, I prefer it to do this, which is perfectly logical. But for my trading, my trade is closed, I am no longer exposed. Technically, the market can go down 80%. It changes nothing for my future holdings, for my trading portfolio. That's the advantage when you trade, you enter. Okay, you enter at 10:30 AM, you exit here at 7:45 PM, you take your short-term trade, then the market, your capital no longer evolves. Okay? So, that's the difference between trading and investing. In trading, you exchange your time for money. Okay? That's a job. Okay. You have to be there, you have to be in front of the screens, you have to make good decisions, and so on, compared to investing where, well, your money works for you. Now, the disadvantage is that you can get good returns on your investments in trading with good risk management and a drawdown strategy. You can reduce all of that. So, trade closed on my end. I always like these little trades where we lose the 15 minutes, we come back to test the 1-hour, and we put in a bottom. Now, it's not necessarily a bottom where we're going to the moon. But already, you see between the lowest point and the highest point, we're at 3%. On intraday, there's plenty to perform with good risk management, a good risk-reward ratio, a good entry. I could have had a better entry, but well, it's always easy to say in hindsight, yes, if I had this, if I had that. It's always easy. So, trading, if we start to say, "Ah, if I had entered there," well, yes, but it's very simple. If I had known about BTC in 2009, well, yes, it would be even simpler. But well, in any case, trade closed on that. I no longer have exposure on BTC futures. It's the only trade I took. Okay. And for now, I will wait. There are phases like this where I can take three trades in a row in a week. Sometimes I'll take one or two, like this week. So, that's how it is. I don't force my trades. If my setups trigger, I enter a position. If they don't trigger, then I don't enter a position. This is something you need to learn to do when the market doesn't give you opportunities. You sit on your hands. It's very simple because, in fact, trading isn't just pressing the buy or sell button; that's 5% of the job. Okay? Except that many people confuse it and think it's 90% of the job. No, the other 95% of the job is analysis, research, risk management, which means your trading plan, your trade management. People just press a button, and well, in the end, yes, it's the simplest. Okay. But often, many people think it's 90% of the job when it's not. Which means that most of the time, people spend their lives buying, selling, buying, selling. No, no setup, no strategy is in place. I don't enter a position, I sit on my hands. Why? Because in a context like the one we are in now, whether short-term, medium-term, or long-term, capital. Capital protection. Okay? That's an important point. You must learn to protect your capital. And there is a market phase that is just incredible. This market phase, I will remember it for a very long time. Why? Because those who weren't there in May, June, well, throughout this 8-month phase in 2024, all those who weren't there, we are coming out of a crypto market that pumped for a year and performed very well. January 2023 bottom, here we are at a x4 on BTC. On Ethereum, we also have good performance because at this level, Ethereum, we see it well, around $4000, where we are. There are altcoins that have performed well too. Yes, believe it or not, Dodge, we are still performing well. So, there are cryptos that have had their performance, okay? I'm not saying all of them, but yes, look at INJ, we are in a phase, we are in a bit of market euphoria, and the market is calming down. The market is calming down, we see it clearly, but the market isn't calming down like we've known before, meaning a big bear market where, yes, portfolios bleed, portfolios take a hit if you haven't taken your profits, if you haven't exited. But here, globally, many have returned their money to the market. Many have returned the performance they made on this rise at this level. Why? Because in the market, there are two phases of capitulation. There is capitulation by price with a falling market, and there is capitulation by time. And often, capitulations by time are much more difficult because people are impatient. Okay? Here, people are doing DCA, they are buying the dip, some are getting liquidated, some are selling the bottom. I'm not saying it's easy either, but globally, this kind of drop is easier than this kind of sideways phase because here people are impatient, there's no volatility, and so they start trading, and many have returned their gains that were realized in this sideways phase, which is a shame because, moreover, the market pumped right after. And here we are in a phase where, when we see that we have a market that is so high, which, as I've said recently, is closer to the top than the bottom, that's a fact. It's possible we'll have one last bullish wave to set a top, I don't know, but it's a fact. In any case, we are closer to the top than the bottom. The most important thing is to protect your capital. The last gains you've made, the cash you have, well, all of that you must protect. When I say protect, I don't mean put it under your mattress, I mean globally secure your gains. Ultimately, putting it under your mattress, if we can understand it that way. Because if you are still 100% exposed in crypto, it's not investment advice. I'm not saying that if a person is comfortable being 100% exposed in crypto, there's no problem because we all have different profiles, different strategies. It's possible that this person has significant income from elsewhere that will allow them, when they inject their cash into cryptos, to ultimately not be at 100% but for example at 30-60 or 30-70, and so on. Okay? You understand me. But what I want to convey is that, for me at least, I couldn't be 100% crypto right now and not have cash because we are too high, and we are in a phase where I prefer to preserve my capital. It's like when we were here. See, when we were here, I told you there were signs of overheating, it's not good. Okay, be careful, it's not the time to position yourself, and I reduced my capital when we had this top pattern, this MTP, I wasn't comfortable. Okay, there are times when I don't have the signal telling me to sell, okay? I don't have the signal telling me to sell everything or well, I never sell everything, but sell a good portion as I did, for example, at this level. But I don't have the signal that makes me more comfortable. We are in a phase, it's complicated, okay? And when it's complicated, as I said, you must preserve your capital. If you no longer have capital, you can no longer trade, you can no longer invest, you are out of the game, okay? You are out of the game. And well, that's where it gets complicated because if you burn all your capital, then what do you do? If we have a market that drops by 50% or 70%, you watch the market and you can't take advantage of it. I remain exposed to cryptos, though. I am, globally, I have a 50/50 balance currently. 50% crypto, 50% cash, and of course, not counting because I have multiple portfolios, not counting the futures portfolio where, of course, I am currently 100% cash. So, I have 50% in spot, 50% crypto, 50% cash with stablecoins that are working well, of course, with returns. Of course, I'm not making a x4 on my returns, okay, but globally I'm making it work. And on my end for futures, I have 100% cash here that can be deployed if I have setups that trigger, which can possibly be used for a portion in spot if needed. It's possible, I've already done it. That's how I operate currently, with full transparency. Some will tell you they are 100% crypto, others, I prefer a balance given the uncertainty we have, it's a balance that suits me well. Okay? And as I said, we are closer to the top than the bottom. I'm not saying the top is here. Be careful, don't make me say what I haven't said. I'm not saying the top is here. It's more complicated. I personally, with my psychology, my way of doing things, etc., I've always had more difficulty finding a top than a bottom. I find bottoms more easily. Here, the bottom, I said it, and I entered a position. Here, the bottom, I said it, you can find it on YouTube. It was January 7th, something like that, 2024. Well, I won't find the video, but here the bottom, I find tops are harder, I have more difficulty here. The bottom, I positioned myself strongly. This top, I managed it a bit poorly. See, for example, I'm honest with you. Well, I say it, I managed this top poorly. I took profits, but not enough compared to the bottom, which I managed much better. But this bottom, I entered a position because I find it easier to spot a bottom than a top. I don't know if it's the same for everyone. I don't know if it's the case, tell me in the comments if it happens to you. But I'm not saying I don't spot any tops, of course, but globally I have an easier time spotting bottoms. For now, as I say, we are in a phase of uncertainty, so I prefer to preserve my capital. Well, that was a bit of the psycho money management moment, what I'm doing, which isn't bad. Tell me if you're interested when I discuss a bit like this about what I do, my way of doing things without getting too technical. From a technical point of view, it's a fact, we are currently in a range. We are in a range preceded by an upward impulse. So, technically, there's a higher chance of breaking out upwards. The problem is that we are at a major resistance. That's why the market is searching and struggling a bit. Now, for the moment, I don't see any invalidation in the long term.
On Ethereum, we see that it's a bit more complicated. We have a more significant degradation underway with Ethereum clearly being underperformed by Bitcoin. This is something we discussed on the ETHBTC pair, and it wouldn't surprise me to see us return to the daily tunnel. This simply means that Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin. It doesn't necessarily mean Ethereum is falling against the dollar because we can have a Bitcoin that pumps, but an Ethereum that pumps less than Bitcoin, which would result in a falling ETHBTC chart. Well, in the end, Ethereum is losing strength against the dollar. I remind you of my long-term weekly invalidation, nothing alarming as long as we are above $3900. If we start closing weekly below $3900, for me, there's a high probability of returning to $3000. I'm telling you straight up. We would be retesting after having already deviated downwards once. Generally, when we deviate downwards once, we have a higher chance of breaking upwards this time. It's quite rare to have two deviations in both directions. It happens, but it's rare, especially since we are in a long-term range preceded by what? An accumulation here. So, technically, a range preceded by this strong upward impulse, higher chance of breaking it upwards. Now, if we can't push on Ethereum, well, potentially we are structuring a top. I have no signs of a top being formed at the moment. Okay, we see that we are still in this sideways phase. Uh, oops, between, globally, two levels, we can take the lower extremity at this level. An upper extremity around 4008. Lower extremity. Well, we have either we take the lowest point and we assume it's not a deviation. So, that gives us a low around 3008. Or we take, globally, this zone here, around 4100, which would be our lower extremity. Well, no long-term reversal signals. However, on the medium term, if we lose this level, and these are different levels we've drawn. If we lose the level of approximately 4500, well, there's a high chance of reaching the next zone, the next step, $4230-40. For me, there's a chance that Ethereum is heading there. We lose the 1-hour tunnel, we lose the 4-hour tunnel, we lose some of the strength we had found in this upward trend. We went from 3008 to 4007 in a very short time, which is a good performance of 20%. So, similarly, for Ethereum, for now, I'm waiting, I have no trade in progress. If I get setups that trigger, I'll take them, but that's not the case at all currently. And I'm also monitoring long-term. I haven't positioned myself on Ethereum for a long time. Well, not a long time, it was in April. April was the last time I invested in Ethereum. Globally, between the between the ETRs, between 100 and 1400, I bought heavily because this is what I call a price anomaly. Okay. It would always surprise me to have seen Ethereum so low. I doubt it will ever go back to such low levels. For me, if Ethereum comes back and breaks 1400, well, it might never have another ATH because there's no reason to go back to the lows. Well, on that note, and yes, I took my profits on the rise. Now, I wouldn't hesitate to reduce my exposure if we start to see long-term reversal signals.
So, on that note, BTC, Ethereum, we have pretty much all the altcoins correcting, even the strongest altcoins this time. For example, BNB was a strong crypto, but today we have a first real drop. Okay, with a pretty strong bearish engulfing. Even if I look at, for example, APT, APT is correcting well. What else did we have as strong altcoins? I've almost forgotten, even Solana. Yes, Solana, we are starting to correct. So, anyway, we see it on Total 3. Total 3 is correcting. We can't make a real new ATH with a real break. Each time it's just small wicks here. We don't have any top signals. We see very clearly that we remain in an upward trend, an upward momentum, and if I put moving averages, we still have 1h above 4h, 4h above daily, daily above 3-day. So, technically, nothing alarming. However, we are at a major resistance zone, and technically, it's complicated to position ourselves currently on altcoins for the long term, as we see we are at resistance. I remember at the time, I gave you the signal that we had validated this W structure, that we had broken here. Ah, since then, we've had good performance. So, well. After all, not all altcoins have performed. I don't think we'll have an altcoin season like we've had before with all cryptos performing. I think we'll mostly perform by sector, by narrative, or just one or two cryptos here and there. Regarding Bitcoin dominance, for me, the top has been made. I really have trouble believing, unless we really enter a bear market with a big crash in cryptos, that the top, for me, the top has been found. I find it hard to see BTC going back above 66%. We are trying to form a bottom. We see that we are going above the 4-hour tunnel. High chance of returning to the daily tunnel for me, but it would be good to have a continuation of this decline if we want altcoins to outperform. Now, will we have an altcoin season? As I said, this is not the altcoin season we've known before. For me, that's very unlikely.
So, on that note, for BTC, Ethereum. If I take now, I'll get out my notes, the altcoins I was asked to analyze. So, I have Tao. Tao has been in a large range since 2024. There are quite a few people who are bullish on Tao. I often hear about it. I had positioned myself at this lower extremity here on Tao. I still have some. We still have a higher probability of breaking this range downwards. However, I told you at this level that it was the worst zone to position yourself. Why? Because we are in the middle of a range, and the middle of a range is always the worst place. Either we wait for pullbacks to the lower extremity, or we wait to revisit the upper extremity and break it to continue. But globally, the worst place is the middle of the range because you don't have a serious entry, you don't have a good risk-reward ratio. And a professional trader always positions themselves at an extremity. So, when you enter a position in a range, your invalidation is the bottom of the range. It's globally below this level. Except that if you position yourself in the middle of the range, your risk, your stop-loss is much too far away. Now, globally, Tao is at support currently. Oops, we see it clearly here, this major support level. And I erased everything. I didn't want to erase everything. Oops. We see this major level clearly, it's a level that must hold because if we lose it, well, we'll have a high chance of reaching the lower extremity, globally around $200. So, step by step, we lose the 300, objective, the 200. We still have quite a few highs to reach. We could have a potential short squeeze if buyers start pushing and trigger all these short positions that haven't been tested for a while. Quite a few highs here that haven't been taken, and that's why sometimes we can have strong rises like this because we see here all these highs where there is liquidity above. When we go there, we can have a short squeeze, closing short positions, a short seller closing their position and buying it back, which is why we can have this kind of pump, and conversely, we can also have a long squeeze when closing long positions. So, on that note for Tao.
Next, I was asked to analyze Egen. Now, Egen has corrected quite a bit. 85%. Again, it's a crypto, we saw that there are quite a few tokens to unlock. Uh, oops, from memory, where are we in the unlocking phase? Ah, we've just, just started. It's a fairly young crypto, which has just begun, as I just said, its unlocking phase. At the beginning, it was only publicly accessible. Well, when I say publicly accessible, it's the tokens that were locked from the very beginning. Airdrops are never locked, but then the different stakeholders who will be involved, meaning private investors, the team, the foundation, and others who may come. Well, there aren't thousands of them. We see that private investors and the team have tokens that are locked. They have been locked from the beginning. They benefited from a rather low price, as we see here, 4 cents, and here, 30 cents. We currently have a price of $1.7. So, imagine the performance. I'll put myself here at 4 cents. Oops, let's go really low. Oops. 4 cents. It's around here. So, the performance of some, and others, 30%, 30 cents. So, the performance of some from another group. Okay? Now, it's not just one person, it's a group of people who took a risk, simply, and invested in this crypto when the project wasn't even launched. Okay? And well, they have a lock-up period. Okay. And then each month, there will be, well, they have a 12-month lock-up period, and then 4% per month will be unlocked like this until 2027. So, 4% will simply be a portion of their locked tokens, and they will be able to sell them. Will they sell everything? Will they, well, I can't tell you in advance, but that's why I remain cautious about these cryptos that have a lot of tokens to unlock. Okay, because automatically, the price can slow down. Now, it's not because tokens are unlocked that the price will correct. If, on the other hand, demand remains higher, it can absorb this sale. But it's something to consider that we have a young token and tokens to unlock. Especially now, we have a lot of tokens to unlock, and well, that can clearly impact its price. It's not the best tokenomics we've had either, with some projects giving 60-70% to the public. Here, the team and private investors are taking a significant portion. So, it's not incredible tokenomics. This is something you should always check when you invest in a project long-term: the tokenomics. How is the distribution? Is it equitable or not between private and public, or how is the distribution globally? And all of this, I teach it, of course, in the Crypto Investor program. It will allow you to have much more professional investments. Now, from a technical point of view, it remains correct. It remains correct since here we seem to have put in a bottom. Okay, we see it clearly with the break of this level, the $1.6 level. We break above it. Okay. Break, we pullback, we reintegrate from above. We had a false, a false deviation here. We seem to have put in a bottom. This level must absolutely hold. If we re-enter it, we'll have a high chance of reaching the lower extremity. But globally, yes, we are here in a good zone to, if we pull back like this, to look for longs. Okay, we are clearly in a W pattern reversal structure. Always interesting structures where we can often put in bottoms, and this can lead us to retracements. Returning to the 0.382 is already a good objective, and then the 0.618.
Uh, I think I was asked to analyze a stock, not a crypto, Circle. I think it's this ticker. I analyze stocks much less, so I'm less familiar and less used to it, but logically it's this ticker. I don't think I'll go into the fundamental aspect. I'm not particularly, well, after all, Circle is well-known, but I'll just talk from a technical point of view. It remains a chart that is quite young, from what I have. If I look at the weekly, we also seem to have put in a reversal pattern. Here, a top pattern, meaning a reversal structure that indicates that supply is greater than demand. Sellers are taking control from buyers. And a W structure, we see it clearly in the closing line, okay, lower lows and higher highs. Compared to an M structure, lower lows and lower highs. Which leads me to think that demand is greater than supply. Ideally, we don't want to re-enter this level, which is supposed to act as support, and someone who positions themselves at a bottom, globally, has an invalidation below the structure. If I put moving averages, we are getting stuck a bit in the 4-hour tunnel, which is quite young given the chart. We are back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, which is rather good. After all, automatically, there's a quoting system that will be different since there are no candles on the weekend. That's perfectly normal. We are not in crypto here. It's not open 7 days a week. That's why we have gaps as well. It might seem surprising to some who are only used to seeing crypto charts. It's just that, well, the openings and closings are not 7 days a week, 24 hours a day like cryptos. But globally, the chart is rather interesting since we broke this level. Now, we need to continue to maintain this level, establish ourselves, and we'll have to watch if we pullback to the neckline of our top structure around $180.
So, on my end, I'll leave you with this. I wish you a good evening. Don't hesitate to join Crypto Investor for those who want to invest professionally and succeed in crypto. I wish you, you can of course, to take advantage of the offer, it's important, click on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.