Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will of course talk about BTC which is rejecting this resistance level. Then, we will talk about altcoins, the altcoins that you also asked me to analyze. I have noted a CHIB and FTT. And we will answer two questions that were asked to me. I remind you in the last video, I had talked about the questions of the day. You can ask me in the comments and I will answer them in the next videos. Well, don't hesitate from now on. If you have any questions that cross your mind, you can ask them to me and I will answer them with pleasure. Before I start, I want to remind those who are not in the Discord, don't hesitate to join by clicking on the first link in the description. There are now over 2000 members, a good community. We talk about trading, investing, crypto, a lot of information. You also have information with news on cryptos that can drop. economic announcements too. I can organize contests from time to time. For 365 days, I shared one tip per day. So, a Discord that will clearly pull you up with a very good community, a very good mentality, and clearly it's a very good way to progress. So if that interests you, don't hesitate to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'm starting here with the uh BTC. Well, we're rejecting, it's not surprising. We had talked about it as we were ranging between two levels. We had lost this level which was simply our bad range for this sideways phase. There was a break here to the downside which simply confirms the break of this support level. And what happens when we break a support level? Well, we turn it into resistance. So, something that has been done here. We rejected with a very bearish rejection. And the most probable thing in general when we reject like this on a resistance level is to go back to look for the next support level. So we see that we remain in this bearish trend on BTC on the uh medium term. Okay? With lower and lower highs. For the moment, we still have moving averages oriented uh downwards. We had slightly regained the 1h and 15min, but in any case, the medium to long term, the 4h, well, it's oriented downwards. We still have a 1h that is below the 4h. So for the moment, we don't have a reversal structure. I remind you on the long term, as long as we hold $98,000, the dynamic, the structure remains bullish because we are still making higher lows. Okay? However, if we lose this level, well, it would be the very first time, well, the very first time since the bottom we put in 2023 that we would reverse this structure. So if we are to really put in a bottom and reject, it's here. Otherwise, we would have our long-term structure impacted. Now, we can still put in a bottom here. However, buyers really need to show up and hold these lows. We see that every time we've come back to look for $99,000, so globally below the psychological figure of $100,000 which is a key level, we see that every time we've gone below it, when we've really accepted it, we had trouble at first, we had a rejection, here we have a wick, we really didn't have good acceptance. We slightly accepted it here but as soon as we re-entered it, I got out because it was clearly bearish and we had a high chance of going lower, which is what happened. And then when we really break this level, we see that it's very often a level that we retested. We retest it again as long as it holds, it's a support level and it's better to look for longs on this level. However, buyers must show up. Put in a bottom here. Hope that it holds, for those who, well, who don't defend this level but who are waiting for a structure because what we would also want is the validation of this W structure. We would validate several things. First, a trend reversal with this time higher lows and higher highs, something we don't have for the moment, the re-entry of this big key level of $106,000 which acts as resistance, and especially getting back above the moving averages. So for me, that's the big signal to wait for on BTC. I remain cautious, we see it clearly. We could of course have been bullish but rejected quickly. It's normal, we are in this sideways phase as I said, blocked between two boundaries. Either you do medium term here and you simply look to position yourself at the extremities, we still have a good amplitude of 6-7% which is interesting for swing trading or even intraday. Or then you wait for us to go look for lower levels. I told you, given the cyclicality, everything that's happening, it wouldn't surprise me if BTC corrects. In any case, I'm ready, I have the necessary cash on my end. Many cried out for an altcoin season when it pumped on certain altcoins when we had NEAR, ICP that went a bit to the moon. Yes, there were trades to be taken but starting to position yourself for the long term saying "That's it, the altcoin season is here and it's all to the moon." I think it's a bit premature. So, be careful who you follow on the internet. There's no shame in being wrong. That is to say, there's no shame in following someone on the internet who is wrong, who fully admits it. It doesn't mean that person is bad because everyone can be wrong. Myself included. However, what I don't like is people who are in extremes. That is to say, we have a slight pump on altcoins, that's it, to the moon, altcoin season, and we have a small dump, that's it, bear market, we're going to $10,000. No, the goal is not to be in extremes. We can test hypotheses, there's no problem. We can be wrong, there's no problem. But you have to be realistic in your approach. And when I saw certain tweets, when I saw here a NEAR, a NEAR pumped slightly. Whereas if we zoom out on weekly, it's insignificant. Even an ICP, where the pump might be a bit more significant, but it's not the pump of the century in the long term either. Some get excited very quickly. Calm down. Okay. Given the market context, I remain cautious, and especially for an altcoin season when we have a structure like this on BTC which is not very pretty, I haven't seen it. I have seen altcoin seasons when BTC was ranging, as we saw at this level. Okay, with altcoins that performed well during this phase, but altcoins performing when BTC is in a bearish trend and correcting with a structure that is really not great. No, that's very unlikely. So to really have this altcoin season that everyone has been talking about for a while now, honestly, I might come back to it later. We'll finish the analysis on BTC, I'll talk a bit more about altcoins, but you'll have to change your mindset on that. Even me, a year or two ago, I could talk about altcoin season because it was possible here, given how the crypto market context has changed. I think it will be different, but I'll come back to it just after.
Well, on BTC, in any case, we've seen the two levels here, they are to be watched. If I look at the short term, well, we had this 15-minute and 1-hour channel with this weekly pivot point that acted well as support. The last time I made a video, it was Monday, it was at this level. We perfectly put in a bottom. And what did I tell you at that moment? There was an opportunity to take a trade on intraday because 2% on intraday is a good day. There is enough volatility here to look for longs. We hit the daily pivot point, we rejected, we re-supported ourselves here on this confluence of the weekly pivot point, the 15-minute channel, the 1-hour channel. It didn't hold. Then we switched trend, lower lows and lower highs. We retested this weekly pivot point, we rejected, and for the moment we are pushing lower with the opening of the US market at 3:30 PM which is clearly bearish. So, we really have sellers who are present. So, no sign of a bottom for the moment. We have a daily pivot point at $10,134. We'll see if there's a bullish reaction on it. Otherwise, if we go lower, I told you, we have a very good confluence zone. I'm interested in taking a long here. If I have a bullish reaction, it's globally at the contact of the weekly pivot point and the monthly pivot point around $98,700. That's it for BTC.
So, before talking about Ethereum, yes, I'm coming back to this point about everyone talking about altcoins. I think honestly there have been phases where we had a very good altcoin season, that's a fact, even during the last cycle, late 2021, see March, April, May. Then we had a very good de-correlation between altcoins and BTC. It was quite surprising, even during this phase in June-July, we still had altcoins that could slightly recover, but the best altcoin season was at that level with altcoins pumping everywhere. I think we won't see such a strong altcoin season again. Altcoins performing, standing out, yes, that will be possible, but it will only be by category. When I say by category, I mean sectors. For example, a narrative that will pump on artificial intelligence, on meme coins. But well, we had already seen that in recent cycles, it wasn't all altcoins that pumped like that. Narratives were being put in place. I think it will be narratives. That is to say, well, ten or fifteen cryptocurrencies that will take the lead for a while, or then one or two really strong cryptocurrencies that will emerge, for example, a hyper-liquid one that will outperform everyone, but I don't think there will be a phase like 2021 where you opened your TradingView and saw +30%, +50%, +60%, +20%, +15%, +30% on all cryptos. I think that phase is over. So be careful to all those who sell you, who sell you, pardon, a bit of hopium as they say on the internet, or as soon as there's a pump, yes, the altcoin season is coming. Yes, the x50, the x100 with crazy thumbnails showing you how you'll be able to make x10 on your capital. So, be careful about that, it can sell you dreams and mislead you.
So, at the Ethereum level, we have here, oops, Ethereum is also correcting, it's following BTC in the end. When BTC dumps, Ethereum dumps, it doesn't change. I rarely talk about, I quickly go over Ethereum. Why? Because we are in a zone that doesn't interest me. I told you, we often come to look for the $3000 zone, and that's a zone that interests me. There, I'm really on the medium to long term. For the short term, yes, it can interest me. I'll come back to it just after. $3000 is a good zone if we go there, or then $3900 if we re-enter this level, that can be a good level. I remind you, Ethereum, well, it has a deviation, so we have room in case we go back lower. So you need to have cash that should be readily available and accept that from where we are, we can still drop by, let's say 12%, or even 35-40%, it's still a possibility. In any case, I have cash prepared for this, so as not to be surprised in case we try to go lower and say "Oh, I didn't see it, I didn't expect it, etc." Whereas I told you, as soon as Ethereum reaches this level, I expect a brutal dump, which we've already had, by the way, at the same time as we re-entered and possibly came back to look for $3000. Now, if I look at the shorter term on Ethereum, what do we have? Oops! Well, it's not incredible. We had also gone back above the 15-minute, the 1-hour, we had a good daily, weekly confluence of pivot points. Now, we have a trend that is bullish. We've gone back into, well, a trend that is bearish. Now, we have this bullish trend that we lost when we went below the weekly pivot point. We can use this weekly pivot point as a reference base. Everything above is bullish. We look for longs. Everything below is bearish and we look for shorts. Sometimes the central pivot point can allow us to use pivot points. Generally, I use them in two ways. Either to determine support and resistance levels, locate my entries, and frame my chart a bit, and thus have precise entries, or as a reference, whether I will have a bullish or bearish bias. I'll explain, I take my central pivot point, everything that, if the market moves above it, I'm bullish, I look for longs. If the market moves below it, I'm bearish, I look for shorts. We can do the same on a monthly pivot point or also on a daily pivot point, of course, adjusted according to the timeframe in which you will trade. But here too, Ethereum in the short term is ugly. We're making lower lows and lower highs again, moving averages oriented downwards. The 15-minute crossing below the 1-hour, the 3-minute crossing below the 15-minute. So, again, the US session is a bit choppy, and Ethereum quickly went from almost 3000 to 3006 to 3400. So for the moment, still in this phase where I'm waiting on my end. After, of course, if I have setups that trigger because, well, I have some automatic setups that can execute, then I execute them. Here, today, I haven't had any setup that has executed.
Okay, so that's it for BTC and Ethereum. Now, regarding the altcoins that were asked to analyze, I'm going back to my list because I forgot what I told you at the beginning of the video. Okay, I have UNI. You can also, from now on, put in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. I still have a few altcoins in advance, but in two or three videos, I'll have more. So, those who want to, don't hesitate.
So, for UNI, well, I've always had trouble with it because I've always preferred trading with a much more interesting chart, a much more solid foundation and project in my opinion. Even if UNI remains a good project. Now, from a technical point of view, the only zone that interests me is anything that comes back to the lower extremity between $4 and $5. Every time we come back to this zone, it's a good zone to look for longs. And here, we're a bit too much, we're close to the upper boundary. So, either we go back, we can put a volume profile when it's like this, we have a big range here, we put a volume profile. Okay. And we perfectly have the value low. Okay. Our value area here from our volume profile which represents 70% of the traded volumes. Then here our value high. Anything that comes back to the value low here, so globally at $4, is a good zone to look for longs. Okay. Good zone. Anything inside the value of the Value Area, pardon, is not a good zone because that's where everyone enters. That's the fair price, okay, that's the fair price. And generally, we don't have a reward when we enter at these levels. The value high is a good zone to take profit if you are positioned at the lower extremity, or if we have acceptance above, to say "Okay, potentially we are starting to establish ourselves and break this range upwards." So, that allows you to have extremities. Now, UNI, don't expect a x100. It's a good altcoin, a well-capitalized altcoin, and especially we are still in a sideways phase. So, as long as we don't enter a trend, we are more likely to ping-pong between two levels. It's a crypto that pumped well. Here on the rebound, we see it clearly, we almost did a x2. Now, these are rebounds where you shouldn't hesitate to secure, to take your profits because, well, we can continue, but given the context, and these are rebounds that offer swing longs and also give the possibility to cut positions if you are invested for the long term. So, rebounds like this for a x2. If you entered within this sideways phase, unless you entered at the very top, at around $10, there's a high chance of being in profit. Now, if you entered at $4, $5, even $6, if you do a x2 or +80%, +70%, well, that's still a performance where you can clearly close your positions. So personally, I would wait for a much lower retracement to potentially take longs. Here, if I put moving averages, we see that we have low volatility in the long term because the daily is flat, the 3-day is flat. Ranging like this, well, it shows us simply that we don't have a trend, and moving averages, Vegas tunnels are not used when we are in a phase like this where we are simply ranging.
So, that's it for UNI. Regarding SHIB, oops, it's very simple. We had this accumulation phase, we pumped. Okay. And we are re-entering this phase. So, generally, re-entering an accumulation phase is not particularly good. It shows us that there are no buyers defending the top of our level which acted as resistance and is supposed to act as support. We see clearly that we re-entered it, that we flipped it back to resistance. When we re-enter like this, the most probable thing is to go look for the lower extremity, which is what happened here. Now, we need a bottom to form. We are in a good zone. From the moment we come back to look for a lower extremity, it's a good zone to look for longs. Problem, we are in a bearish trend with no sign of bullish reaction. Moving averages oriented downwards. Okay, we see it clearly. Daily tunnel acting as resistance, 4h tunnel below the daily tunnel, 3-day tunnel also oriented downwards. The location zone is good. What we are missing, however, is the bullish reaction. It's the reversal pattern. It's the structure that tells us "Okay, we have a higher probability of putting in a bottom here, that's a fact, but we're missing this bullish reaction." As long as we don't have it. A bullish reaction similar to what we have here. You see when we dump like this, we come back to look for a lower extremity, well, we can look for small patterns on daily, on 3 days if you want a slightly longer timeframe and a more powerful signal. But, oops, I'll cut everything to show you better. See this type of W structure pattern, it breaks. Okay, it shows us that okay, in this zone, demand is greater than supply. These are things we want to see when we look to position ourselves. You see this type of W structure, for the moment, we don't have it. It's better to wait, to have a more powerful signal because if we start to drop and not have this bullish reaction and start to settle below this level, it would be really bearish. We would lose a major level in the long term. We could retrace much lower.
And the last crypto that was asked for an analysis is FTT. It's been asked a lot lately, the FTT crypto. Already, I think because it has retraced a lot. There was a small pump recently where it did, it did a x2 I believe in a few days. Now, if I take the lowest point, the highest point, we did a x2. Be careful, again, be careful of FOMO. Yes, a x2. It's off again. To the moon. We zoom out, we zoom out. And this x2 is insignificant. It's insignificant because we're coming from very high, we took a -90%. Okay? And for the moment, in the long term, I'm talking about, there are no signs of a bottom. Why? Well, the highs and lows here are getting lower and lower. So, from the moment we have lower lows and lower highs, what does that tell us? That buyers are not present. Buyers are present when? They mark a low that will be defended, that will perhaps be retested, a higher low, and thus a W structure, a reversal pattern. For the moment, that's not the case. So, you have to wait. You put moving averages here, you put a daily tunnel, okay? And your daily tunnel can be your reference point in the long term. As long as we move below the daily tunnel, we are in a bearish dynamic. We break it. Okay, there can be a slightly bullish signal. You see like we did that. Like we did here, daily tunnel oriented downwards, we break it, bullish signal. We go back below. Oops, we break it again. There's a false signal, but if you enter here, it's not extremely serious given the evolution. After, well, after, we can't know at that moment, but we break it again and you see that we go. So, the daily tunnel is a very good reference point. Generally, when we break it upwards or downwards, well, it's either a sign of exhaustion or a sign of reversal of our dynamic. So, that's it for the altcoins that were asked to be analyzed.
I'll finish here with the questions of the day. So, oops, I'll just hide this. Oops. So, what do we have here? Thank you Nico for this video. And precisely, as you invite us to ask questions, I'll take this one. You often talk about your pending bags, BTC, ETH alone. How do you know and orchestrate your different bags affiliated with this or that crypto when, I imagine, they are all in USDC? When I say I have cash set aside, and I'm waiting to enter, for example, these cryptos here, it's cash that I have, most of which will be in stablecoins like USDC, USDT, and DAI, but 90% at this level, between these two cryptos, will be put into staking because I don't want to let stablecoins sleep like that for maybe 3 months, 6 months, when I could hope for a return, even if it's not 40% annual, but even if it's between 5% and 10%, it will depend on how I stake. So, that remains a performance that can be interesting. It allows, well, not to let your money sleep. So, that's how it is, how it is, as you call it, affiliated, okay? Simply, it's cash I have set aside that is ready to be deployed, that I have between two or three stablecoins in staking, not all of it, I don't have 100% of my stablecoins staked, but a good portion, and cash that can also be on exchanges like Binance, for example, and in case of a drop, well, I have orders that can be waiting to be executed or at least if alerts trigger, I have that flexibility. Always have cash that is ready to be deployed immediately because if we have a drop like on October 10th, for example, and alerts trigger, the time to stake, the time to do, well, it can make us lose a few minutes, and that's where we can potentially miss entries. So, and then I have cash like that that can be distributed on cold wallets, on hot wallets, and on exchanges.
Regarding the question, I've asked myself this several times. In fact, you talk about your situation with a purchase at $1500 on Ethereum, for example, but personally, I arrived in August. So my average purchase price for now is $3500. So, would you, in place of other people who are positioned higher, when it goes down, advise to hold a bit or to sell everything to buy lower? Well, a novice question to death. There are no novice questions, we all started, there's no shame in that. So yes, it's true that when you enter at $1500, you are much more serene. And when you see Ethereum go from $4500 to $4000 or even $4500 to $3500, there is still a significant drop, but it's mainly a drop on profits that have already existed. So it's the same loss as you in monetary terms. Except yes, it's easier to handle mentally because my position is already in the green compared to yours where you're coming back to break-even, for example. So, however, it's not because you have a higher purchase price that you should say "Ah, well, I'm not selling here because I'm at my entry price." It's exactly the same thing whether you bought at $1500 or $3500. If you wish to sell at $3600, for example, you shouldn't say "Ah, I'm only making a profit of $100 because it's just above." When you sell, you don't necessarily have to sell, even if that can be the case because you've made profits, but you can sell because you have a market invalidation. And you can't anticipate where market invalidation will occur. If it occurs at your entry price, well, you can invalidate and exit. After, it depends on how you exit. Is it because you've determined a price level? It depends. Okay. But if there's a part of your exposure that you've decided to exit because you have a market invalidation, it can be price action, it can be context, whatever, you have to exit. You shouldn't start saying "Well, since I entered higher, I can't exit and it would be simpler. If I had entered at $1500, I would exit more easily." Globally, it's the same thing, preservation of your capital. However, I'm not talking about selling everything. No, selling everything to buy lower. A mistake, especially if you're a beginner, because if the market doesn't go lower, that's where you'll FOMO because the market will perhaps take off again, you don't know, even if it takes off slightly by $100 or $200, you'll say "Damn, in the end I sold, it's going up again." Whereas no, if you operate by sliders, you'll be much more comfortable. But being in these extremes of "I sell everything, I buy everything" is a mistake.
So, I hope I've answered your questions. Don't hesitate to ask me again in the comments. Join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.