Transcription
If it breaks through this support and makes a New Low, oh wow, that means it's over for this country. If it goes down to a New Low, it means we have to change currency, maybe. Because of that, "cold money" right now really can't be used. But there's a previous low here. Therefore, if this becomes 1 and then goes down 2, it means it has fallen about 70-80%. It will reach a point where it will stop and start to change to an uptrend. But if it continues to fall and makes a New Low, it means this country is bankrupt.
[Music] >> The Baht has come out to around 33.50. Financial market analysts say the Baht might weaken further. Some say it will break through 34. >> The first target is at 34 [Music] in the short term. But its real target, if it doesn't collapse first, will be over 35. >> What about the dollar, compared to the world's main basket of currencies, Uncle? The Dollar Index. >> But if it's very short-term, like a month or something, it's forming a base to become an uptrend here, but it won't rise very sharply. It's around 104, 106, something like that. [Music] In the long term, the dollar will definitely have problems. A chart like this is broken. How is it broken? It went up, you see? It formed a lower high, you see? But this high couldn't break the previous high. It's called a lower high. With a lower high and red, it's like when I told you to short.
>> Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in the country, is now available for rewatch. >> Most people trade gold. [Music] 95%. >> Hey, why are they losing money? >> A crisis period is the best time for you to convert cash into assets that decrease in value. >> You can watch the full replay of all Main Stage Sessions. Follow more details on SIP Event. [Music] >> During periods of global asset volatility, the Baht has weakened to around 33.50. Financial market analysts say the Baht might weaken further. Some say it will break through 34. But may I invite Uncle to look at the technical analysis? How do you read the Baht's exchange rate chart, Uncle? [Clears throat] >> The Baht is currently rising, isn't it? >> Yes, it's rising. >> Oh, no, it's falling. The dollar is rising. It's like a war. >> The dollar rises, the Baht weakens. >> The dollar rises. >> The dollar rises, the Baht weakens. Uh, let's look at this. The dollar, when it was at 30, it rose to uh, 38. It went up 1, 2. If 1, 2 is about 80%, it means it's forming a base and will rise. So, let's measure it like this, from here, from its base price to the peak. You see it's here, at 88.77%. It has pulled back. Exactly. This means the base here has very good strength. With this base having very good strength, the way to trade is to create a channel for it to see what it's like. It came down like this. When it breaks out of the channel, it's a buying point. The dollar is starting to move. Notice, when it breaks out of the channel, this one went up. This one, the resistance above, it broke through. It came down, there's support, you see? It's strange, it's always perfect. After there's support, it's a point to start buying. So, right now, the dollar will continue to strengthen against the Thai Baht, and probably against anything else, because of the war. People are panicking and holding onto dollars. >> Yes. >> But it looks like the dollar will continue to rise. Now, if we look at its rise, what's the pattern? It's 1, 2. 1, 2, sideways, and is about to rise. Where is it about to rise? Wave 3. This will be quite strong. Wave 3. The target for the dollar in the medium term is, uh, we've set it at around, the first target is at 34, short-term 34. But its real target, if it doesn't collapse first, will be over 35. The highest. >> Yes. >> Over 35. But 34 will likely be seen. >> Yes. >> Right? >> Is this within a short period, Uncle? Is it quarterly or monthly? >> Uh, probably around August, September, we should see it. Because Wave 3 will surge strongly. >> Yes. >> It should rise strongly. During this period, exporters have to buy dollars, right? So, >> Yes. >> Buy quickly, don't keep it for too long. Those who, those who are in export, they get dollars. If they get dollars, keep them as dollars if they are allowed. If the central bank doesn't allow it, that's another matter. Because it's rising. When you need to use money, then convert it to Baht. But it feels like the law doesn't allow it, right? Everything that enters the country must be converted to Baht.
>> This is the dollar-baht chart. But what about the dollar compared to the world's main basket of currencies, Uncle? The Dollar Index DXY. Uncle, it's currently around the low 100s. Recently, we've seen the dollar index stabilize or strengthen. How is the chart, Uncle? >> The index, normally it should be around 100. It's around there. This index, it fell. It once fell to the low 70s. >> Yes. And when it rose to 110, 120, it fluctuates. Looking at it now, its lowest point is around 72. >> Yes. >> An all-time low. And it started to rise. If, if the dollar peaks at around 114, which was around, uh, 2022, a long time ago. It means it's currently in a downtrend. A dollar in a downtrend will fall to around, below 80. But it will take a long time, many years. So, right now, we have to think that the dollar is in a downtrend. But if it's very short-term, like a month or something, it's forming a base to become an uptrend here, but it won't rise very sharply. It's around 104, 106, something like that. >> Yes. >> The index. And then followed by a further downtrend. In the long term, the dollar will definitely have problems. A chart like this is broken. How is it broken? It went up, you see? It formed a lower high, you see? But this high couldn't break the previous high. It's called a lower high. With a lower high and red, it's like when I told you to short TFEX. >> Yes. >> This is the same. Lower high and red. It's trying to push up a bit now, but it will go down. It will go down. Looking at it, the dollar index will probably break. People are starting to buy other things, right? Big players are holding other things. Russians, Chinese, they are starting to use their own currencies. How will they win them back? I don't see a way. Because the absolute superpower status of the world is gone. Not to mention fighting China, Russia, Iran, or whatever country. They can't even handle them. So, confidence, the dollar index, I think it's gone. So, in the long term, I think the index will definitely fall. It will definitely fall. It probably won't last many more days. >> You mean the strengthening we are seeing now is short-term, Uncle? >> Yes. It's like, if it's an uptrend, it's called a pullback. In a downtrend, it's called a rally. >> A rally in a downtrend. >> Yes. This is the dollar's side. Finally, may I invite Uncle to look at the Japanese Yen? To conclude, last time we also invited Uncle to look at the Yen because it's the weakest in 40 years. The Yen is also one of the currencies in the basket used to calculate the DXY, or the dollar index. But now, the Yen looks very weak. We are waiting to see if they can control it or how the central bank will manage it. Let's look at the chart to see how Uncle analyzes it. >> Compared to the dollar, the Yen is nearing its end. But it will fall a little more, not much more, compared to the dollar. It has fallen from, uh, 0.13 to 0.006. It's very bad. But it will find support around here. Now, let's look further, for another month or two. If it breaks through this support and makes a new low, oh wow, that means it's over for this country. If it makes a new low, it means we have to change currency, maybe. We can't take it anymore. So, "cold money" right now really can't be used, compared to the dollar. Now, what if we compare the Yen to gold? >> Yes. >> Japanese millionaires, instead of holding money, they hold gold. Uh, sorry, this can't be done. I don't know how. Uh. >> Can it be compared, Uncle? We don't use it much. Y divided by >> Xu. >> Xu. The data is not enough. Never mind. >> So, the weak Yen, fully compared to others, let's compare it to the Thai Baht. >> K. >> JPY to THB. We need to. >> Uh. >> Divide. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> Uh, no. Oh, I misspelled it. It's YHB T. >> THB. >> We don't have enough data. >> Haha, because it's like this. We need to go to the Forex market to get more data. >> Yes. >> Okay, sorry, we didn't prepare this today. >> Yes. But looking at the Yen chart itself, it's a sign of weakening, right? At first, I thought Uncle said it was nearing its end or nearing its weakening end, but it turns out Uncle said that "nearing its end" means, uh, uh, currency stability. >> The JPY compared to the USD. Yes. >> Not compared to the dollar. Look, it has fallen so much. It has fallen continuously. But there's a previous low here. Therefore, if this becomes 1 and then goes down 2, it means it has fallen about 70-80%. >> It will reach a point where it will stop and start to change to an uptrend. >> But if it continues to fall and makes a new low, it means this country is bankrupt. >> Yes. >> So, we'll see if it can stay here, not making a new low from this point. It's just a little bit more. >> Yes. >> Looking at the country's future.
Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminar access from PR KP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please click Subscribe.