Transcription
Donald Trump is again threatening China with higher tariffs if no deal is closed by November 1st. For now, the indices don't seem to care much. It has only strengthened the dollar. The indices are very likely heading towards new all-time highs. We will analyze this today. We will do a P on Gold and the dollar index, of course, as well. Just before we start, I remind you that you have the opportunity to train for free. Our link is the first one in the pinned comment. This will give you access to free training and support. You just need to click here on "Join my free Forex Trading support." Simply scroll down, and register on Prime XBT via our partner link. Prime XBT is a broker that will allow you to trade Forex, indices, and commodities with crypto collateral. So, this allows you to stay in Bitcoin, stablecoin, Ethereum, etc. It's quite interesting. You just need to enter your email, your Prime XBT ID, which is found at the top right of the platform, there's a small profile logo. Copy your ID, paste it into the form, and also enter your Discord username. You just need to make a minimum deposit of $100. This is your trading capital. You can withdraw your funds whenever you wish. Once that's done, check the box "I have made a deposit to get my access." Within 24 hours, you will receive access to the complete mentorship and also access to the VIP indices Forex with trade reviews, discussions, and so on. The goal is to progress together.
So, we start with the indices with Trump, who is again threatening to impose tariffs this time at 155%. So, always more pressure to try to negotiate as much as possible. Regardless, for now, the price remains bullish. We managed to break out of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily chart. So, it's likely to act as support now. And we can base ourselves on two zones. First, we can base ourselves on the first zone, which will simply be the zone now of the IFVG. I'll just clear this. We'll delete the text. We'll just increase the opacity a bit and say that this zone will now potentially serve as support. So, this is the first zone. Well, first zone, let's say it's the first zone. Then we simply have the low of Monday and all this movement with the discount zone. So, it would be to say that eventually, if we have a stress move before going to deliver the ATH, because now that's the objective. The fact that the price stopped before the relative equal highs here suggests that we will go there and that we will probably re-work this previous impulse in order to go and make a new ATH, quite simply. So, we have the FVG zones here on the hourly. We also have, if we don't go hunting for the low of the day, the discount zone of Monday. So, theoretically, it would be to say that the market will come back to work the discount zone of yesterday, which will also correspond to these FVG zones here in order to go higher. We could even add the sell side of this order block. Why not see a small stress move below the low of the day, but for me, everything from the discount zone to the low of the day is a buying opportunity to deliver the ATH. Okay, quite simply. So, if we respect the price very cleanly, we could see something like this. Now, on a US open, it can be quite volatile sometimes. And for example, we know that the last sell stops are here. We take the stops, we also take, for example, the low of the day, and eventually, this allows the push to continue calmly to go for the ATH. In any case, the direction seems to be the ATH for now. The fact that we broke this Fair Value Gap suggests that we will go and deliver the ATH. But don't forget that we have an order block here, and that order block stop hunts are quite frequent. So, we could just come and take the stops and continue to close below the last OB until either it becomes a real curblock, or it simply forms a reversal. And so, if for example, we have an order block, liquidity grab of the order block, and a new bearish order block, then I would speculate more on a return to the previous weekly lows. So, the weekly low of last week, but also the last weekly Fair Value Gap that is not 100% filled, if my chart wants to load. To fill 100% the FVG that was not filled. But really, for me, the order block, I observe it with attention because if we just have a liquidity grab and signs of reversal, I wouldn't be surprised if the market makes a second bearish attack leg. I wouldn't be surprised at all. We'll see if that's the case or not. This is a bit what the January barometer suggests, really independent of October. I don't know if we'll have it again, but it remains to be observed.
Regarding the SP500, it was diverging a bit with the NASDAQ, and so we came to recover previous weekly highs, we filled the FVG and broke it, we closed above it. So, this will now serve as support. I still have the same zone of interest, which is either the discount zone of yesterday's candle. So, we take our Monday candle, we locate the discount zone, and that's roughly where the price will stop. Perhaps in the NWOG that we formed just here. I saw it on the daily. Here. The NW that was here. So, perhaps a retest, possibly with this sell side to take the stops in order to continue bullishly, why not. But the objective now is the ATH. We also have an order block here. So, we will have to observe once we have taken, I don't know if we will take the stops, that's what seems most probable to me, but once we have cleared the ATH and the OB stops, again, does it break out and continue, or do we just do a liquidity grab, re-entry? And that could indicate, well, potentially a re-work of a possible daily FVG, or if, for example, I'm saying something stupid, we make a daily FVG here, we take the stops and then we reverse the FVG. That could be a reversal signal to go and clear lower. So, for me, we really need to be careful on the ATHs here on the indices, quite simply because we have a VIX that is still a bit nervous. For now, it has calmed down, but yes, it remains to be observed, this VIX, which at any moment could get agitated again. For me, the real cleaning objectives for the indices are more after the low purge, but I remain attentive to the order block for the moment on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. I'll just take a quick look at the REL quickly. which has reached its objective. It was the 2024 summit. You see, we came to take the stops, there was an immediate reaction. We came to fill the FVG, we closed a little above it. Well, on 12 hours, we might have a more important EVG. Exactly. So, I think we will continue to work this bearish candle which formed an OB, by the way. So, the indices are all on their daily OB. We'll see if it eventually hunts the stops and reverses afterwards or not. But this is really what I'm observing and what I'm focusing on for the next few days. But I still think we are heading towards the ATH. So, for me, on intraday, still speculating long to deliver the ATH, that's what seems most probable.
Regarding the dollar, well, for now, no change in the dynamic, meaning the last low is here. It remains a range, once again, not much is happening. The previous quarterly high for me remains an objective. Now, we'll see how the price will resolve this bearish Fair Value Gap just here, which for me is the level to observe. This bearish Fair Value Gap. If we are rejected, well, we could very well continue to fill the levels we left behind. We can see here that we potentially have small gaps, volume imbalances that we could fill, or even purge the stops of the last low, which wouldn't be impossible. The current month's low, which is the low of October 1st. So, that would be an interesting sell side. Now, yes, I don't have too much of an opinion on the dollar, for me, it's doing its own thing. It's ranging. I'm especially waiting for a test of the previous quarterly high to see the reaction. Will it mark a reversal? And therefore, ultimately, rather a bearish quarter with perhaps a retest at the end of the quarter for the beginning of 2026. We'll be at the previous yearly low, the low of 2025, with our annual FVG still being an excellent bottom zone or not. That's mainly what I'll be observing on the dollar, to be honest, with regard to gold.
Gold is still bullish. We see that for now, the daily Fair Value Gap has rejected us well. We made a new high, so that's rather interesting. The market has re-worked the discount zone of the previous candle, even slightly lower. We can see that the price has been well maintained. We made a new ATH. For now, it remains bullish. I repeat it once again, we are probably at the end of our rally. When we see people FOMOing in real life to buy gold, etc., it shows that the FOMO is real. After all, especially after such an important rally, we're talking about gold increasing by $1000 in a few weeks. That's huge. It's really huge. I don't know if we've ever had such a rapid rise. So, it's very important. We are really in extension objectives. I think we are not far from finding our top, it's just that technically it's not visible yet. And so, on intraday, previous daily lows that cover daily FVGs are very good locations to continue going higher. That's exactly what we had here, and on our rally, that's exactly what the price is doing. The state delivery is bullish. It respects bullish FVGs, and bearish blocks, when they appear, are not respected. For example, this one was broken. We came back to work the FVG that broke this order block, and it was an excellent continuation zone. So, if we are factual and we simply read the price, it is still bullish. It's just that we can say that we are not very, very far from a potential top. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a thumbs up, subscribe if you haven't already, leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box for those who want to train for free. We'll meet again later for another video or tomorrow for another macro review. Ciao. Ciao.