Transcription
We finally have the signal we've been waiting for weeks, the close above the last weekly fair value gap. We're going to talk about it, we could potentially have ATHs on altcoin indices. We're going to talk about it, what would be the objectives, what could happen on the Alts market. Also, let's not forget that we have the FOMC this week. We'll talk about it again. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. 23 TP on the LIM algorithms last week. And that's not all. With the first link in the pinned comment, you will be able to access the mentorship and the VIP Alcoin. So it's the first link in the pinned comment. All the links concerning my content will take you to this page. You just have to register on Bitgate via our partner link and thanks to this registration, you will be able to access everything I'm going to tell you. So first of all, the algos, what I showed you just before. Also the mentorship. It's a complete training of 24 video courses that train you from A to Z in trading. I've put almost everything I know about price action into this mentorship. And you will also have access to the VIP Alcoin and crypto on Discord, which is located right here in the VIP crypto section, where I will share the best opportunities on altcoins from my point of view. I remind you that all of this is free. You just have to watch this second video, and I explain absolutely everything in it.
So to come here on Total 3, we've been waiting for weeks for this signal, the break of the last weekly fair value gap. We're there. We finally closed above it last week, we have indeed the resolution of this weekly fair value gap. So theoretically, the objective now is to break out of the highs and therefore to simply have momentum in the Alts market with a first objective of 943 billion valuation on this Total 3 index, after removing stablecoins, and then perhaps to aim for the 2024 high which is at 971 billion, and then obviously the realistic theoretical objective would be the ATH of 2021 with 1000 billion valuation to aim for. To simply make a new high and continue the bullish dynamic we are currently in. This will benefit large assets like BNB, Solana, XRP, etc., etc., because they are generally the ones that gain the most in valuation since they are the largest assets. So we remove the top 3, but within that, we can add either LAN, BNBcoin for example, which has gained 21% in the last 7 days, which will soon have an ETF possibly. Cardano Hyperliquid, etc., Chainlink, etc., etc. And we also have Oders. So this is another index, in fact. We take the entire market outside the top 10, and we see that it is also trying. It hasn't managed to break free from its weekly fair value gap yet, but we're not very far from it. This could be done possibly this week, and this could also energize slightly less capitalized altcoins. So everything that is, I don't know, I'm talking nonsense, but, well, everything that is less capitalized, not big highly capitalized altcoins like BNB, Solana, etc., etc.
So, the objective would be to break this fair value gap to have a real bullish phase since we already have the bullish structure here with the break, the pullback. So here we have a new bullish structure that suggests that this market can go higher and that we can have a bullish push on the altcoin market. We will also look here against BTC. Always look against Bitcoin. We can see that we will soon reach the objective we saw together. So here we see that the Alts market continues to gain dominance. Here, we stopped just before the objective, but I remind you that the objective is to retrace the previous leg on Altcoin against Bitcoin and to re-work this entire bearish leg here. So here, I'm going to take the two fair value gaps, but it's this whole zone. It's in this zone that we will know if we can go higher, if we can have an altcoin market that will perform more or not. Because I remind you again, the main thing when investing in altcoins is not performance against the dollar, it's performance against Bitcoin. You want to be positioned in assets that will outperform Bitcoin. I remind you of the formula to see if your asset outperforms Bitcoin or not. So I'll take one at random, let's go, XLM. Take XLM, do it in USDT and then divide it by BTC USDT and look at the curve. So here, we see that XLM has a good phase of outperformance, retracement, there's a big candle. Also, but we see that in the long term, we are still rather engaged in a bearish dynamic. If you take, for example, Hyperliquid here, which we divide by, well, I took the Perp market here because that's where we have the most history on TradingView, if I'm not mistaken, or otherwise it's Qcoin, it doesn't change much. And so here, we see that Hyperliquid, for example, outperforms Bitcoin. So when investing in altcoins, the objective is to have assets that outperform Bitcoin, but also, if that's not the case, sometimes at least that your asset outperforms the overall market. So indices like Oders. So here, for example, you take, I don't know, while coins outside the top 10 for Oders and all coins outside the top 3 to divide by Total 3. Let me explain. We'll take, let's go, Arca. We do Arca divided by Oders. And there we look at what's happening. We see that Arca, for example, underperforms Oders. So it's an altcoin that has been underperforming the average of other altcoins for several weeks here. So it underperforms Bitcoin and it underperforms most altcoins. So if you hold Arca, you're not having a crazy performance right now. So here, if we look at Arca against the dollar, indeed, we see that it's not great. Well, there's a nice dynamic here that's forming. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a push on Arca to go beyond 84 cents and work on its bearish fair value gaps. But it's outperforming a good part of the market.
And then, to come back to Total 3, we also have this ratio against Bitcoin. We see that for now, the dynamic is still favorable to a rise in altcoins against Bitcoin since for now there are no signs of a top. Now, there might be bearish divergences, which is what I thought, they are close. They are far from being confirmed, but they are starting to show up, so to speak. We have potential divergences, nothing too serious for now, but in the coming days, coming weeks, if the altcoin market against Bitcoin starts to slow down, we could simply have the beginning of a reversal of alts against Bitcoin. So that will be something to watch. Also, the index I'm watching closely, I always say it, is the Coin 50, which for me is still bullish. We talked about this ascending channel in which we are currently. We also talked about the break of this bearish trendline here, the respect of the last fair value gap with bullish divergence against Bitcoin. That is to say, we simply had the Coin 50 stagnating here while Bitcoin was falling. So that's rather positive when you start to see that on the Alts. And so here we see that we are already at the high of August 2025, but theoretically the objective on this index would be to reach the top of the channel. So that would be around $600. These are objectives we will note. We will have to be careful at the top of the channel. It could be a temporary top phase for the altcoin market. I'm also looking at this index divided by Bitcoin. It's interesting for me to see if this index is outperforming. And for now, it still is. Now, we see that it's starting to lose momentum. If I put an indicator like MACD, which analyzes the strength of the movement, what we call momentum, we see that we are starting to diverge. Now, we had a first divergence that formed here, which indeed caused the price to drop a bit here, but nothing extraordinary. And we see that we are pushing for a possible second divergence which is not yet confirmed, but it's starting to indicate that the Alts market is slightly weakening against Bitcoin. Now, that doesn't mean it will weaken all the time. It can regain strength, but in any case, we have weakened a bit, perhaps because we are waiting for the FOMC to see if the Alts market can perform a bit more, quite simply.
And on quite a few altcoins, we are on big contractions as I showed you, for example on Arca, where we are on the verge of a breakout, probably in the near future. I think there will be breakouts at some point, and that will allow, note well, I already talked about it a long time ago, but I'm talking about it again because there are many coins that have come to seek these zones, but not yet on the side of Arca, for example, and many other assets. But broadly speaking, there are reasons to believe that the market will come to address these bearish fair value gaps at some point. So here, you see, all the highs are accumulating. We have nice structures forming. I wouldn't be surprised if we go a bit higher, make breakouts and reach these fair value gaps, maybe even retrace more, who knows. But in any case, we have quite a few contractions on the market on quite a few assets. And I also told you about something, and it's the last thing I want to talk about here, it's blockchain stocks. In fact, it's looking at what's happening with stocks. And we see that on the Coinbase side, etc., it's not great, nor on the MicroStrategy side, very weak. So in fact, this shows a lack of interest in large-cap stocks but also in crypto, so Bitcoin for example. And in stocks, we see that there's a lack of interest in Coinbase, MicroStrategy, etc. However, small caps like mining companies, I talked about them, but we see that they are pushing, and so while these small stocks are putting upward pressure, it's rather positive for the altcoin market. This shows that attention, there is a lack of interest in large caps, there is a rotation towards small valuations. So this shows that we are closer to the end of the movement than the beginning, to be honest. I remind you that the bottom was formed on April 7th, and we are currently in September. The market has been rising since April, so that's May, June, July, August, September. It's been 5 months that the market has been rising. We are closer to the end of the movement than the beginning, let's be clear. And here, we already see that even in stocks, we are starting to have this rotation. We've had very good movements, particularly on Coinbase, which went from $140 to $440 in the space of here, about 3-4 months, that we are potentially close to the end of the movement, and that there is a lack of interest in this type of stock, but that we have precisely a rotation in small stocks here that are starting to wake up, and so that will be interesting to watch. See? Here, which is really breaking out, we talked about it last week, which has gained value again here, and precisely this testifies to an interest in small valuations. So we might be in the last moves perhaps until October, we'll see, we'll have to watch all that with accelerations because often the market accelerates to mark a top or a bottom. If you look closely, bottoms are formed in fear with big bearish accelerations, and tops are formed in euphoria with bullish accelerations before marking highs. So here, we see that it's starting on blockchain stocks, we see that it's starting on some altcoins. So in my opinion, we are entering this window where we will have to be cautious, benefit from the momentum, spread out our profits during the rise, and not be too greedy because at some point, there will obviously be reversals, and that will probably happen. When could that happen? Perhaps once Bitcoin has reached its ATH, if it doesn't manage to really break the trendline it's blocked by, by which it's blocked for a very long time, that could be the final move. So I remind you that we absolutely must break this trendline here if we really want to accelerate on BTC. If we don't succeed here, and I'm not saying it won't happen, but really, we have to observe the big stocks because here we see that they are starting to diverge enormously. For example, with MicroStrategy here, we really see that MicroStrategy is struggling, so this testifies to an institutional lack of interest on the stock market side that we can have. Here, see the difference a bit, but if I switch to daily, it will be even more visible, but BTC is bouncing well, MicroStrategy is not following at all. On the Coinbase side, it's bouncing, but again, we are really on a fairly bearish movement that had started. I think we're going to come back to fill the gap, and we'll have to see if we can pass this gap or not. If we start to have a BTC that makes a new ATH but struggles to go much higher, and Coinbase doing things like that, well, that will confirm significant divergences and it would really indicate a lack of interest from the institutional market in crypto. And we'll have to be careful about that.
Okay. But in any case, positive for now, given the signals we have in the short term. In my opinion, we can still have accelerations on the Alts, but you shouldn't be the one buying these accelerations, you should be the one setting your limits and trying to sell as high as possible to benefit from gains. Again, buy low, sell high. Don't forget that the bottoms were set in April, we are in September, we are perhaps in the last movements. I'm not talking about the end of the bull run again, I'm talking about the bullish leg we currently have. We are perhaps in the last movements of this one before more consolidation afterwards to rise again later, because I personally don't think we will enter a bear market from here at the end of the year as we hear everywhere. Yes, it's the end of the bull run. I see the bull run without any problem. Or rather, the BTC bull market especially continuing even after, well, until 2026. That's my main bias. I don't see indices entering a bear market at all, unless there's a recession, and therefore I don't see Bitcoin entering a bear market at all. For me, that doesn't make sense. Indices will continue to rise in the long term. Of course, there will be retracements. I'll show you a bit what I have in mind. And for example, wait, I'll remove Bitcoin. But imagine we have corrections coming on the indices and we continue to rise. That will probably trigger corrections on Bitcoin and the crypto market. And I don't see BTC entering a bear market at all if in the coming weeks and months the indices do this. For me, that doesn't make sense. I don't see why institutions would sell BTC when US indices are rising. That would mean there are still inflows into risk assets, and Bitcoin will simply benefit from it, nothing more, nothing less. That's how I see things. On the other hand, yes, if we enter a bear market on the indices for the next two years, for example, then I don't give much for Bitcoin or altcoins, but again, that's consistent. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to hit the like button, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you in the description box, you have the opportunity to join my school. For those who want to train alongside me, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. It will take you to this page for those who want to train alongside me, have access to the private brief, know what I'm doing on the markets, and also have access to the best opportunities. We try to find opportunities, we analyze altcoins, etc. It happens in the school. It's the only paid subscription, it's €49 per month, it's without commitment. You also have 3 and 12 month offers which are even cheaper. You will have access to the school's training, which is explosive, to the school. You will also have access here to the Discord, here school, to ask all your questions, exchange with the teachers, other members, progress alongside us, etc. You even have testimonials from members to give you an idea. I'll stop here. See you very soon. Have a good day.