Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. We are about to close the second week of October, a rather negative week for BTC, rather positive for the Nasdaq. You will really see that there is a big gap that is being created and that is being validated, notably on the CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange which closes tonight, and I think we will consolidate a lot this weekend, and next week will be heavy, very, very important. I will explain why. Because yes, we are still in a shutdown, but despite that, the macroeconomy continues to take off. But before that, on BTC and cryptos, we see that we have had a lot of liquidations. Liquidations of longs, 424 million dollars liquidated in the last 24 hours with BTC, Ethereum, and Others. What's interesting to see is that for once, it's not Ether that's on top. So we first had the purge of Ethereum, which is always the most leveraged thanks to, or rather because of, decentralized finance. And we have BTC that has taken the lead. Yes, it has taken the lead, but also because a whale has put in an enormous amount of leverage. We are talking about 420 million dollars in leverage directly on Hyperliquid, a short position. As soon as it opened, it caused the price to drop by 700 dollars. This is to explain to you how huge the short on Hyperliquid that was opened is. And so we have a very strong pressure here from this, but it's rather classic. We've seen it before. And it's very likely that we will have a team that will take care of liquidating this whale. We know that it's the game of some, and it's perhaps also the problem of Hyperliquid. And we can ask the question, and it's perfectly logical given the capital that has been injected and the enormous position that has been taken, if it's not a bet on the downside to liquidate a few more people. In any case, we have good news. We have Luxembourg, and notably the sovereign wealth fund of Luxembourg, which will invest 1% in BTC ETFs. Rather positive. Here, we are talking about a portfolio of 900 million dollars. So, it would be okay for 9 million dollars to be injected into BTC, but that doesn't prevent it from being the first time this has happened here in Europe, and it's a good thing for the old continent. In the meantime, we have JP Morgan predicting that the Solana ETF, if launched, would have few inflows and would be around 1.5 billion dollars in the first year. Now, I agree, but not entirely, because I think there is also an undervaluation of the ETF issuer, given that we already have a Solana ETF that is bringing in quite a few million, and here we would have a new issuer that would be from another name, and necessarily, I think we might see more in terms of liquidity injection. Yes, however, it's certain, we won't reach 1.5 billion dollars in the first few weeks, but it's likely we will reach it before the end of the first year. However, they are right on one point, and that is that there is really an investor fatigue here. I see it with all the interviews I can have, all the discussions I can have, all the comments I can read, all the posts I can read. It's clear that there is enormous fatigue at the end of this year, at the end of this cycle, and I know how difficult it is, and unfortunately, we still have a few weeks to hold on to really finish this year in style and finish this Q4. I think this week, this end of the week will be complicated, the beginning of the next week too. I will explain this to you a little later in the video. We continue with the news, with the founder of Alibaba entering another company based on Ethereum. It's interesting to see how some people are taking positions on Ethereum, with companies that have built up cash reserves on Ethereum as well. There is a pattern emerging on Ether, and it's certainly less powerful than on BTC, but it's real. In the meantime, since it's classically Q4 2025, we are starting to always have this notion of a super cycle arriving. Well, it's rather classic. The reality is that whether it's a super cycle or not, we can't afford to play it that way. We must have good risk management, and we must evaluate both possibilities. What is behind this reflection, and what we always say, is institutional flows which actually give a new breath and would allow BTC to be pushed between 450 and 500,000 dollars. This seems totally absurd now, but anyway, in any case, the super cycle would not be played out here at the end of 2025 or in 2026, but potentially in the following years, and it will certainly be a new structure once again. There is a high probability indeed that ETFs will play a major role. I also think that the adoption and integration of blockchain technology into traditional finance will play a huge role, and DeFi too. And that's one of the reasons why you have a masterclass on Sunday, October 12th, at 8 PM this Sunday with me, where we will talk precisely about centralized finance. What are the opportunities within it? What is happening, and I will give you strategies to apply directly. We continue. We are going to macro this time. Nasdaq, closing the weekly which is taking place, very important. We don't feel like we are in a shutdown at all. We are about to enter the third week of shutdown. Globally, we see that we have a rather bullish candle. I don't think we will have bad news to push us down this Friday, but nevertheless, it remains a huge candle given the political instability in the USA at the moment. Yes, it's a reality. There is great instability and a lack of figures because when there is a shutdown, well, of course, nothing comes out, and it will be next week. We will have a week that will be heavy, very heavy. Tuesday, Jerome Powell's speech, CPI core, Wednesday, Thursday, we will have the producer prices coming out. Friday, the unemployment rate and the average wage for September. In short, an excessively heavy week. The figures will weigh in the balance for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, let's say the usual macroeconomy. On one hand, we have BTC, which has a rather mixed close. When we compare the two, we say that indeed, we are two separate worlds, but which is rather logical with profit-taking on BTC, liquidity injections which we still find at the ETF level. To give you a quick overview, we had a lot of injections this week, and we still had 197 million dollars that came in through the ETFs, and consequently, we have a candle close that is okay. If we stay on this candle, ideally, I would like to continue to go up a bit. Yes, it would create a candle of uncertainty, we agree, but nevertheless, it would be much better than having a candle that is fully bearish. Above all, it would potentially allow the weekly RSI on the CME to turn positive again to give a new bullish momentum. It is logical after the type of candle we saw last week to have a phase of absorption and breathing that we are seeing, which is a form of pricing of the uncertainty around the shutdown, the macroeconomy, and the profit-taking we are seeing, because the reality is that Q4 2025 is also a period of profit-taking, and that is something that is perfectly normal. It's something we also see here rather classically with a decrease in open interest that we find following the acceleration phase. Bullish acceleration, decrease in open interest, profit-taking which is found mainly on coin marging, meaning rather large traders or large positions. It is perfectly normal to have profit-taking, and that is exactly what we are seeing here. Structurally, on 4 hours, it is also very interesting to see that the support at 120,000 is holding very well. We talked about it several times, we see that it has been bought back here. Unfortunately, it's not enough yet for a bullish restart. I think we could have a retest if unfortunately it gives way, so 120,000, 119,000. This means that the next stop will certainly be around 117,000 and 114,000. Okay? We talked about it at the beginning of the week, and for me, these are the last targets before a bullish restart for the future. It must hold, but this is only valid if it doesn't hold and if the 120,000 breaks, because the 120,000 is being bought back intelligently, and we see that there are still rather positive flows, and so it's rather bullish in the short term. What's interesting to see is that BTC is still respecting Fibonacci extensions well. Here, we have indeed made a classic 11 target on the bearish impulse and retracement. So, we will have to see if on a new retracement in a bearish continuation with a new 11 target. But the pullbacks we are seeing at the moment show that there is still a bullish surge, show that there is still a force. And this force comes mainly from the ETFs. ETFs allow us to hold key levels. If we didn't have liquidity injections and the fallout that could cause, unfortunately, I think we would already be lower for BTC and consequently for altcoins. It has bled a lot for the Alts. That's also what's complicated to hold. Now, when we look at the ETFs, we see that BTC is holding up rather well. Unfortunately, Ethereum is a bit complicated. We had a first outflow several weeks ago, on September 29th, it was the start of a series of very strong inflows for several days, and we see that now BTC is also weakening. Will we fall into negative territory at the beginning of next week? Will it start today? That's where I have a little indecision about a bearish continuation precisely at the key levels I gave you. Zooming out again. For me, there is no bearish setup to talk about. We really have something that is rather bullish in an acceleration phase, but necessarily it will be a little more complicated in this first part because we have macroeconomic uncertainty, we have a shutdown that is still ongoing unfortunately in the United States, and we find ourselves in a period that is rather conducive to profit-taking, which we see at the OG level. We have already had several profit-takings, whether it was, let's zoom out a little here in the December 2024 period, here in the May 2025 period, here in this period, and so rather classically here too. So necessarily, this means strong pressure, and this pressure, at some point, must be absorbed before a reversal. And this is perhaps one of the anchor points we could see for the super cycle change. If all these profit-takings are reabsorbed directly by the market through the various ETFs, and if the ETFs continue to inject liquidity, then indeed, we could have a shift, and we could have a much better year 2026. But in any case, we cannot afford to play it that way. We must absolutely focus on risk management for the end of this year. Don't forget it, especially for altcoins primarily. In the meantime, I wish you a very good day. Don't forget before leaving to like, share, and especially subscribe. And I'll see you very soon.