Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will talk about BTC. We are approaching the big weekly close which can be saved or not. We will talk about that today. We will also talk about altcoins, three cryptos that you asked me to analyze. We will look at HNT, Toncoin, and Ondo. So, we will simply see if we have any setups or not that are triggering on these cryptos. I'm starting here with BTC. But well, yesterday we had another daily close that is clearly ugly with total control by sellers. It was at 3:30 PM during the US market opening. We had a small bounce here. You see, we tried to bounce but we only came back to the 3-minute tunnel. Here, the daily pivot point. We rejected and continued in the direction of the initial trend. So we have a daily close that is, uh, clearly ugly, which concretely breaks this level of 98,000 dollars on the daily. We don't even have a rescue attempt with a low wick, something that shows us that the buyers have shown themselves. No, absolutely not. So clearly, a big break of this level. We will wait for the weekly close to see if we also break this level. But I maintain that as long as we are below 90,000 dollars and especially with a weekly close like this, we have a higher probability of entering a bear market than returning to the ATH. It's very simple. In my mind, it's very simple. How do I function at that moment? I tell myself, very well, we close below 90,000 dollars, we have more chance of going back to 72,000 dollars than going to make a new ATH. Very simple, we are a bit in between the two at the same level, huh. There, we are at 95,000 dollars. The 125,000 is at 30, it's about 30,000 dollars. The 70,000 at 20. There, we see that we are roughly between these two levels. The fact of closing below 98,000 shows us that we are reversing this bullish dynamic because of Dow Theory, higher lows and higher highs. Here, I note that the lows, you understood me, this low, there is a break. There is a break, so typical, of a bullish dynamic that is stopping. It's an inversion of our dynamics. And in this kind of condition, of context, we must make lower lows and lower highs until we establish a bottom. A bottom that can be established in different ways. It can be either by proposing a W structure. There, a W structure reversing our dynamic as we had at this level in 2023 with a bigger inverted head and shoulders, and so on and so forth. So this is the first pattern I could watch for a bottom. Either with an inversion of our dynamic, for example, by breaking a resistance level in a structure like this and a bullish impulse that breaks our resistance level as we did here. Except here it's our previous low and here we will have an inversion of our dynamic. So, I am entering this mentality. I'm already saying it. I think I'm someone who takes risks. Okay? Sometimes I can be right, sometimes I can be wrong, but in any case, I tell you things. I generally share my overall opinion with you. Some will always be in the mentality of saying, "Yes, maybe it will go up, maybe it will go down." Well, they are right, we can't know in advance. Now, we can establish probabilities, we can have theses. Okay? And for me, here, if I have to venture out and take a risk, well, I've been repeating it for a while. You watch my previous videos, I've said it for a long time. That we were entering a complicated phase, we were high on BTC, and it was interesting to take profits. The first one who tells me I didn't warn them that we had the top absolutely at 120,000 dollars, but warned that 122,000 dollars was a very good zone to take profits. Everything is available on YouTube. As I say, I clearly told you that there was a good zone here to take profits. Now, was I 100% sure that the market would top? I can never be sure. It's always probabilities. Now, as I say, I take risks, if I'm right, great, if I'm wrong, that's my business and that's how we evolve. Now, if we close weekly below this level, as I said, for me, there's a higher probability of going back to 73,000 rather than going for the ATH. Now, it won't happen like that. Oh, you never know, it can go very fast with cryptos, but I don't think so. For me, we could potentially experience a small sideways phase to go there later. It's possible. Now, every scenario, as I have it, has an invalidation, as I say, if we have a re-entry, if we have an inversion of our dynamic, well, if tomorrow we have a BTC that does this, that re-enters, I don't want to be the one saying, "No, it's absolutely impossible that the market goes through this, the market is wrong, we are definitely going back to 73,000 dollars." I have no problem changing my bias quickly. You have to put your ego aside. The goal is not to be right. The goal is to adapt to what we see. But in any case, for the moment, it's bearish. And then the dump we experienced in recent days, there are metrics that can tell me that it's a break that is concrete, that is real, from the moment we have a significant dump. There, and if I put it in percentage, we are around -10% in a few days. A good increase in open interest. So, I'm on futures. Oops, here, we have a good increase in open interest. I remind you, open interest simply measures the opening of positions, whether they are longs or shorts. But when we have a movement, when it's bullish, we want to have an open interest that increases if we are bullish because we want the movement to be sustained. If we have a price that increases with an open interest that increases, well, it means that positions are opening. That is to say, buyers are supporting the movement, and two, shorts are also opening positions but creating liquidity above. So, here, we have a price decrease, an increase in open interest, which shows us that this movement is sustained. And if I look here on the CVD, we see a big, well, here I'm on spot, CVD spot, we have a big decrease in CVD, which shows us that there is strong selling pressure. And the same on futures. On futures, we had a lot of selling pressure. But on the CVD, this dump we are looking at here is astonishing, and if we compare this movement, which is in percentage almost similar, around -10%. This movement, we are also at -10%. And when I look at the CVD, well, the dump is completely different. Oops, let's zoom in, let's look at it together. But you see, we had a small dump. So this dump in price could have happened through perpetual contracts. But here we see clearly that on the spot, it's selling off well. I remind you, delta measures the difference between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers, between buy market orders and sell market orders. It creates a delta. Okay, when we simply have a delta that is positive, well, we have a CVD that is trending upwards. When we have a delta that is negative, a CVD that is trending downwards. And here, we see clearly that for the moment, we have selling pressure on the spot. So, which shows me that this movement, in any case, was orchestrated by the spot and not by futures. Futures followed, however, but here it's mainly by spot, and well, which leads me to think that we have a chance of having a real break here and not necessarily a re-entry. After, that's what I'm observing currently. If tomorrow, Elon Musk tweets and launches a big buy order on BTC with a huge amount, well, automatically it will do this. Of course, if there's an announcement out of nowhere that comes out like that, BTC will pump. If tomorrow Apple, Nvidia announce they are putting BTC in their treasury, it will pump. So there are things we can't predict. That's why we adapt to what we see in real time. We don't try to anticipate. What I see in real time is a bearish dynamic orchestrated here by the spot and which has a chance of holding for now. Now, as I said, if I see re-entries, if I see bullish signals, I can adapt. Here, we are in a context where we are putting moving averages here and looking for trend continuation by looking for shorts. Many of you have asked me questions. Yes, Nico, how do you use your tunnels? I'll try to make a tutorial in the coming weeks. I'll see. I'll try to make a tutorial, to start making tutorials again. I've noted it down a bit in what I would like to do, maybe a first one coming Sunday on certain indicators to help some, especially beginners. We get straight to the point. I don't talk about trading strategies or anything else. I take an indicator, I explain it in detail, but globally, it's simply three moving averages, okay, which will represent a tunnel here on different timeframes. I have the white tunnel, it's the 15-minute tunnel, the orange tunnel, it's the 1-hour tunnel, the red tunnel, it's the 4-hour tunnel, and the yellow tunnel, it's the daily tunnel. It's an indicator you can add here by putting "multiframe Vegas". There, simply. And it simply allows you to materialize a trend, to have a representation of this trend on different timeframes. Okay? Whether it's bullish or bearish, it's absolutely not used in a range because when moving averages are flat, there's nothing to do at all. And it simply allows you to look for convergences at the level of moving averages. When all moving averages are oriented in one direction, well, we have a bullish or bearish dynamic on different timeframes. It allows you to have reference points and simply determine interesting zones where you position yourself. And it also allows you to determine the momentum of a trend. When we have strongly vertical moving averages oriented downwards, it shows us that there is a very bearish flow. When it starts to become flat or less oriented downwards, well, it indicates that we have a weakening of momentum. So, a complete indicator for me, it's an indicator that I use daily, that I would find it more difficult to do without, especially for trading trends. For other setups, it could work, but yeah, you don't need 40,000 indicators on a chart, just moving averages can do the job. But there, on BTC, it's more of a context where we will look for shorts and especially prepare for what's next. Now, some of you, I know, are in a phase where they hesitate to sell because we've already dumped a lot, and it's especially on altcoins that they hesitate to sell. Why? Because BTC is still high, while we have altcoins that look like this, which have been sideways for a long time, for 3 years, and are here. But the problem is that yes, it's a support level, but what's complicated is that if BTC falls, yes, altcoins will break this level. And some also entered quite high, for example, on BTC at 95,000, 100,000 dollars. Some arrived here, others arrived here. So they didn't buy the top, but they bought quite high in this trend. And for some, it can be difficult to sell because selling is accepting that you were potentially wrong. Okay? And second, well, you say, "Okay, well, I bought, I held for 6 months, a year, and now I'm selling at break-even or slightly at a loss." And for some, it's difficult to accept these things. Yet, sometimes selling is the best thing. The most important thing is, I repeat again, your cash-crypto balance. What percentage of cash do you have? Stablecoin, USDT, USDC, DAI, Euro, Fiat funds, in short, whatever. On one side, what is invested in crypto, and on the other side, the cryptos you own. If you are currently in a phase where you are 100% crypto, 0% cash, well, it's complicated. Honestly, it's complicated because if we enter a real bear market, you will suffer. If you are at 50/50, it's still okay, especially if you have very interesting cryptos. If in that 50, you have BTC, Ether, it's okay. If in that 50 you are full altcoins and altcoins that have done nothing, well, it's complicated. And then the ideal, I think, is that we are in a phase where being at 40/60 can be good, having more cash, not hesitating to re-expose yourself if there are positive signals. As I remind you, the goal is to be flexible and adapt according to what the market shows us. Ether, we will review it quite quickly as well, since we are going back to test the wick of the dump from November 4th. We were testing 3,000 dollars here. No bottom established for the moment. To really establish a bottom, well, we can look at two things. Either the structure that would structure a W pattern here. You see, like we have here, a W structure reversing our dynamic. When we are in a downtrend, all ranges are more likely to break downwards. Why? Because we have a range that is pressured by what? By a bearish impulse. So this range is more likely to continue in the direction of the initial trend, that is to say, this bearish trend. A small range, we break downwards. A small range, we break downwards. A small range, we break upwards this time. Okay. Perhaps here, an inversion of our dynamic, a daily W structure, and then we can put moving averages. And when we have a price that goes back above the 4-hour and above the 1-hour, it's a good signal. Yes, it's true, you don't have the lowest point and you see that we are already 20-30% above. But it's a rather good signal because we clearly see the switch between here, a 1-hour above the 4-hour moving averages oriented upwards, the price going below the 4-hour which fails to go back above, so it goes below the 1-hour which goes below the 4-hour, and here moving averages oriented downwards. A 4-hour that acts as resistance until we reach a phase where the price goes back above the 1-hour, goes back above the 4-hour, and then we restart a bullish trend. That's what we would need for Ether currently, a W structure, because currently all ranges, it's the same, all ranges are more likely to break downwards. Why? Because here, we enter a range, we are pressured by what? By a bearish impulse. So this range is more likely to break downwards. And especially when I put moving averages, we clearly see the 4-hour acting as resistance and the 1-hour below the 4-hour. So, we would have to wait for a reversal pattern and a 1-hour that goes back above the 4-hour. For the moment, that's not the case. Either you look for shorts and you do trend continuation, or you wait for a retracement to test much lower levels. BTC, Ether, that's good. Now, regarding altcoins, I have HNT. We'll take it on Crypto. See, this is the kind of altcoin I was talking about earlier. These are altcoins that technically are at very interesting levels because here we are at the neckline of a W structure, of a bottom that has been formed. Which testifies to us. What does that mean? It means that the entry zone is magnificent. Look for an entry here with an invalidation below the low where we say, you see this, it gives us a risk. I enter around this zone. Very good. I put my stop loss below the low on the weekly close and I target a 2:1, 3:1 retracement. Look for these highs first. You see, we are at 2:1. If we go higher, we can then be flexible, take profits on the way up. This gives us an entry with very good risk. The problem is what? It's that the majority of altcoins are at major support levels and BTC is very high. And if BTC goes from 95,000 dollars to 80,000, 70,000, it breaks. There's no way HNT will hold or other altcoins will hold if BTC corrects. There can be phases where BTC dumps a bit and altcoins tank a little. If BTC loses that much, for me, these supports will break. So that's why we are in phases where the entry is very good. Now, we don't have a buying reaction yet, that's a fact. I'm putting moving averages here. Look at the daily tunnel, we are like this on the long term, the yellow tunnel. We clearly see that we have a tunnel here that acts as resistance, so again, as long as we don't go back above the tunnel, and here we have exactly the same scenario. Oops, market top. Daily tunnel acting as support. We go below. MP. At this level, I put it in close, we see it clearly. Mtop, inversion of our dynamic. We go below the daily tunnel, the daily tunnel acting as resistance. And there, as long as we trade above, there's nothing to do. And when we go back above, well, there's a positive signal. And we see that it's at that moment that we establish a bottom. Here, it's the same. Daily tunnel oriented downwards, and nothing to do as long as we trade below the daily tunnel. After, it's up to you to see if we break it, if we form a W pattern, if you want to take a risk to position yourself on an altcoin, even if BTC remains at high levels, that's up to you. It can be done, but you must have very good risk management. Next, I have an analysis of Toncoin. It's ugly, clearly, it's very, very ugly. We had this big accumulation phase, big break. Okay, we went quite high to make an ATH, we went from, let's say, 1 dollar to 8 dollars. So we can say that Ton has had its bull market, since it did an x8. And it's not even like there wasn't a structure built. Yes, we had the structure that was built compared to some altcoins where sometimes we do this and bam, we take off suddenly, we can say, "Yes, it's complicated to position oneself." Toncoin, someone who wanted to position themselves on Toncoin had the opportunity. W structure, M structure, we see these W, accumulation phases, break upwards, and here it's a market top phase with an M. So that reverses our dynamic. We go back below the daily tunnel. We clearly see that since then the daily tunnel has been going down. Yes, we are going back to test major support levels, but here we have a strong bearish dynamic with very bearish momentum. I'm putting my tunnels. We clearly see that the 4-hour is acting as resistance. The daily below the 3-day that we lost. The daily tunnel also acts as resistance. There's nothing to do here, honestly. Entering here, especially potentially entering a bear market on BTC and on cryptos. This is the worst mistake. This is a crypto that can go lower and break its lows at this level. So, you have to be patient. Honestly, a chart like this doesn't make me want to enter at all. There's nothing. There's no buying flow, nothing. The only positive point is that we are going back to test low levels where we established a bottom. But just because we established a bottom doesn't mean we will absolutely re-establish it. So, here again on Toncoin, personally, I will wait. And the last crypto that was asked of me, Ondo, which I will look for shorts, of course, not to sell because we are still at a major support level. But if we lose this level, it wouldn't be very good for what's next. Here, we are really at the last major level to hold. It's a level where we've had quite a bit of buying reaction that acted as resistance. We went above it, we formed a base here, we came back to another base, we came back to another base again. Now, yes, the pumps were less significant, but we still had pumps where you could take trades, plus 60%, that's definitely tradable. Here, there's a lack of momentum. I'm putting moving averages, we are trading below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, below the daily. Yeah, it's not great at the moment. And we are at a support level, so it's complicated to panic at a support level. However, if we lose this level, be careful because that would mean that all of this is a big distribution pattern, and then we would have a high chance of entering a bigger downtrend and going to test much lower levels. And don't forget, just because a crypto has dropped -70% doesn't mean it can't drop another -50% -70%. It's entirely possible. Okay? Look at old altcoins, there are altcoins that have gained 90%, they have dropped another -90%. However, yes, we are in a zone where if we manage to establish a structure, validate a reversal pattern, have this type of signal, it can be very encouraging. Now, we don't have it. See this type of W structure pattern. At the moment it breaks, we have a very strong impulse there and we can clearly get a x2, x2.5. Yes, it's sure we're going to the top, but there, on such an impulse, we can at least aim for a x2. It's possible. Will Ondo do the same thing? Again, it will depend on BTC. So you see, we are a bit in a phase where altcoins will be watched. Yes, there can be opportunities, but BTC needs to re-enter, to react. I cannot position myself on altcoins, especially for the long term, for a move of a few days, a few weeks. Why not? If there's a rebound on BTC, think that we take the last cycle, this kind of phase, there can be opportunities on altcoins, but you shouldn't hold them for 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, otherwise it will be very complicated. I'll leave you with that. I've said everything I wanted to say. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.