Transcription
So, of course, after Friday's crash, there are every analyst is basically commenting on what they think happened. Um, seemed pretty clear to me. My my take anyway is that this was a bailout for the banks that were caught in their short position. Um, that being said, let me just quickly recap what I think is going on.
Um, from and you could say this either started in '99 or 2001, gold double-bottomed at 255. Uh, this is the first leg of a secular long-term bull market. Between that first leg, there is a cyclical bare market. Um, this was an eight-year cycle low here. This was an eight-year cycle low here. So this uh, this eight-year cycle topped right around the midpoint at about four years and then we had this cyclical bare market for four years and then you start the second phase of the bull market. And and these long-term secular bull markets usually unfold in two phases. And I will say this one might have a third phase. I'm I'm willing to um, give that the benefit of the doubt and I'll go into a little more of that later on in this uh, video. But uh, this was the a cyclical bare market within the context of a long-term secular bull market. Uh, so the second phase of the bull market started here in October of or November, whenever it was of 2015 when this cyclical bare market ended.
Um, started off pretty tepid, you know, with a a marginal breakout here, but a little too late in this eight-year cycle to get a sustained move. And then we start the the declining phase of the of this eight-year cycle. Did our eight-year cycle bottom right here. Now, this this eight-year cycle much much different. We break out above these uh, resistance zones, but we do it very early in this eight-year cycle. And that's why we have this this huge uh, sustained move. And um, it's you can look at this chart and and see this this is different. This is not, you know, similar to anything that has come before. This is a parabolic move. Parabolic moves are indicative of a bubble forming. Uh, now um, and and we certainly are forming a bubble in the metals. Now I I will say it might be that that we form a bubble, bubble pops, you know, we have a huge crash, you know, probably come back down, test the 200-day moving average, maybe even go below it, but then the it turns into just a cyclical bare market, the same as this, and then we have a third phase to the to the bull market instead of just two phases. Um, I I'm open to that possibility.
So, um, so now I'm going to move over to silver because this u, this tends to be a little clearer in the silver market. Uh, during a bubble phase, at least um, let's say the last two u, so-called bubbles, one in 1981 and 2011 in silver, there was uh, the the bubble phase, quote unquote bubble phase, parabolic move unfolded in two parts. So you get the the first part of the rally, and then there's a um, a correction between the first part and then the the second part. And the second part can be much much bigger than than the first part of the bubble. Uh, and I think that's going to be the case here. Um, so I think this rally to you, know, about 120, whatever it was, I think this is the first part of the of the bubble, so to speak, and it and it came with this breakout above 50. Uh, I think the suppression in in metals ended here when they couldn't hold, the banks couldn't hold this below $33. Just kind of started the move, and then you had that, you know, major 40, 45-year resistance at $50. Uh, broke out, drove it back below it temporarily, couldn't get any traction, broke out again, tested it, and then we're off to the races. Uh, as the short squeeze clamp down on the banking cartel, um, and, you know, they were just losing billions here. Uh, they needed a rescue. That's what Friday was. It was a rescue for those short positions. There was a lot of contracts that were going to stand for delivery this month. Um, I was kind of I didn't think that they would be able to manufacture this. I thought the buyers would be able to to stop, and they have been. The buyers have been able to stop u, pretty much every attempt to suppress the silver market on the way up here. So I was I was under the impression they were not going to be able to pull one of these off. But lo and behold, they did. Um, but this uh, this just guarantees that the the final move is going to be all that much higher.
So, my my prediction is $250 is probably going to be a piece of cake. And $500 may be a long shot possibility. Uh, this this um, suppression right here puts the odds of $500 much much better. Uh, because it it's going to bring in a lot of buyers. Will that will make the supply, you know, shortages even even worse. Um, people are getting a gift to scoop up even more physical silver and make the shortages even even more extreme. So uh, ultimately this probably allowed the banks to escape from the shorts, but it's probably improved the odds of $500 uh, dollars, instead of $250, much much more likely at this point.
Now um, let's look at this a little closer. Now now what would have should have happened, you know, if this had been allowed to to progress naturally, then what what would have happened was we would get a short pullback here. We'd come up, probably made a little bit higher high, and then formed a rounded top and then a a normal correction, which was always going to happen. We were always going to have a normal correction, but a normal correction that would have probably bottomed maybe in March or maybe in April, you know, probably bottomed around 100, maybe, you know, extreme um, scenario, maybe 90 would have been the bottom, but that would have been a natural correction. What what should have happened that naturally and then and then we would kick off the second phase of the uh, of the parabolic bubble phase. Um, well, that wasn't allowed to happen Friday. The banks needed to be rescued. We get this huge massive crash. Um, I think the banks started covering their positions here. That's why we didn't end near the lows. And I think this is probably going to um, recover very quickly. Um, that's generally what happens in a bubble and and that's the reason the public piles in, and that's what drives the second part of a bubble. Is um, you'll get usually you'll get some kind of uh, scary correction, but then it recovers very quickly and gets back up to, you know, the the old highs and breaks out really quick, and that convinces the, you know, the average Joe six-pack that there's no risk in the market. And so that you you, you know, unsophisticated traders that have no idea what they're doing, they start piling into the market and uh, and, you know, they've got FOMO, and so they're they're hitting the ask, and it doesn't matter how big the spreads are, they they just need to get in. And that's what drives that second part of the of the bubble phase. And that's that's how you can get a move from $100, $120 silver to $500 silver in six months. And so I think that I think this is what's going to happen. You know, we this we were always going to have an intermediate correction here. Normally it would have occurred as a rounded top and then a bottom in March or April, and then we would be a pretty quick recovery. General public comes in, you get that second part of the bubble, you know, huge move to $250. But I think probably what's going to happen now is this is going to recover much quicker. Uh, my prediction is is that we'll probably be be back up here testing these all all-time highs by the end of February. And it might even occur even faster within two or three weeks. If if that happens, that the general public is going to start to pile in to this market, and then the second part of this bubble is is um, will will be on its way.
And and now let me discuss the um, the possibility for a third phase of this bubble. So, in order to do that, let me go over to the stock market. All right.
So, real quickly, here is a four-year cycle low. Um, I think this is probably a short four-year cycle low. We've got so much volatility in this market. It's a little hard to tell, but this seems a little too stretched to me at at um, you know, five and a half years for this to be the the four-year cycle low. And it didn't even come down to actually tag the 200-day moving average. So, I I think the correct call is that this is a slightly short uh, four-year cycle low, and that opens the um, potential for this to be a slightly long four-year cycle low that may bottom. Uh, you know, the the normal timing band would be in October of this year, but it might stretch into this into the spring of next year. But I I think what's what looks like it's going to happen already. You know, we had this huge move up um, out of this uh, bottom last year, but it's stalled, and I think it's going to remain stalled. I I don't think we're going to get any huge sustainable moves, and we may get a rounded top as we move into the midterm elections. So, um, money is just not going to be treated very well in the stock market here as we, um, you know, stall, maybe start to roll over, and then we'll we'll get that move down into that four-year cycle low. And so, if people quit making money in a market that has stalled and and is going nowhere, they're going to look for something that's trending. And especially if this correction in metals recovers quickly, that is going to be the metals market. And so you're going to see liquidity start to come out of the stock market that's just not doing anything and is stagnant and go into that second part of the bubble phase in gold. And then uh, if the stock market does start to roll over and start to move down into that four-year cycle low, even more liquidity is going to come out of this and and push that u, that second part of the bubble in in metals because that's where the the capital will be treated well, is in that fast-moving, fast-rising uh, second part of the bubble in metals. But then there's going to come a point where uh, the selling pressure is so great at these uh, four-year cycle lows in the stock market that it it starts to infect everything. You know, you just start to get margin calls everywhere, and people sell any and everything uh, to meet the margin calls. That's that's probably uh, the trigger for the parabolic um, phase in gold to end, and then we get a huge crash in not only in the stock market, but in everything, and that would include gold, which would be in a huge parabolic move um, you know, insanely far stretched, insanely far above uh, the the long-term moving averages.
And and now let me go back to gold. All right. So here you can you can already see how far gold is above the 200-week moving average. It's, you know, compared to anything that's come before, this is, you know, unprecedented. Uh, but um, what I I think is probably going to happen is we finish this this parabolic move into the uh, end of 2026 or uh, maybe into early 2027. And then we get uh, the the crash in everything as that four-year cycle decline. The selling pressure affects everything from the stock market uh, including collapsing the the parabolic the bubble in gold. And then the next eight-year cycle low is going to be due here. Was the last one in '22. It's going to be due in 2030. So I think you have probably uh, at least a cyclical bare market into 2030 in gold from that that collapse. Um, you know, it it takes a while for the the crash to um, stabilize, base, and then start up again. But it I I will say that I'm open to the possibility that this could just be a cyclical bare market, similar to what happened um, into that 20 from 2011 to 2015. Could be the same, and then we quickly start another or or we continue the secular bull market um, from 2030 on. So instead of only having um, two phases to a long-term secular bull market, I am open to the to the possibility that we might have three phases to this bull market. But this is this is clearly a parabolic, you know, bubble that is forming. I'm just not, you know, I'm not sure whether this is the end of the 26-year bull market and then, you know, once this bubble collapses, that we we, you know, we're going to have another 15 or 20 year long long-term bare market like we had from 1980 to to 2001, or whether this could just be a cyclical bare market. It only lasts four years, three or four years, and then we have another leg up in this long-term uh, bull market. I'm open to that possibility, but for right now, we are definitely forming a bubble phase. We are definitely in the correct corrective phase in between the first part and the second part. And I think we're going to recover fair very very quickly uh, from this correction, especially since it's been massively accelerated by that um, bank rescue on Friday. Uh, and when it does, then that's gonna um, inspire the general public to pile in, and that'll drive that second part of the bubble phase that uh, that um, as I've been saying uh, you know, the amount of money that's been made during the first part of this bubble has just been mind-blowing, but you haven't seen anything yet. Um, especially because this suppression is just going to make it go that much higher. Um, the second phase of the bull market will be something we have never seen before and probably will never see again. So um, we are getting a once-in-a-lifetime, maybe a once-in-a-hundred-year opportunity thanks to the banking cartel needing to be bailed out. I think they made it even bigger than what it would have been naturally.