India's tragedy is its large size and its glorious history. See, we have 1.4 billion biometric IDs. No one else in the world has it. There will be challenges, but also opens up opportunities. See, the business opportunity is there. Someone will create a solution. World seems scary, but believe me, we've been through scarier times. For the hard problems to get solved, you need massive amounts of risk capital. We had a $3,000 per capita economy. At this level of per capita income and per capita wealth, it is unthinkable that we are generating so much of risk capital.

If tomorrow Gmail was to shut down, be a huge problem for all of India. Tweeting today about how if YouTube was to be shut down, the revenue loss for content generators will be only 12,000 crores. But the social instability will be massive. There are risks. But at the same time, I'll go back to the point I keep making that as we go from $4 trillion to $20 trillion in GDP at some point. Yeah. Of the extra $16 trillion, 15 will come from it. Good. Welcome back to another episode. So you've been talking about in fact you have a talk later today where you're going to present the case of you know why you believe this is the golden age for Indian entrepreneurship which is I'll be very curious to hear you know how you are processing it you on one hand I obviously wholeheartedly believe that as well but I'm also very acutely aware of all the low-hanging fruit has been you know kind of taken $10 billion IPOs happening routine things and it's very hard to find the jugar type opportunities or optimization efficiency-driven and it seems like um you need to really innovate build unique IP etc and that ecosystem very fledgling so given that what what what convinces you that this is start of you know golden era for Indian entrepreneurship thank you u uh for having me again and always a pleasure just doing bullah with you uh so see entrepreneurship is um is about um you know solving business problems.

Now as we have discussed in our earlier podcast as you the the path you take from low middle income to middle income to to upper it will be different from the path from middle income to upper income. So the the way you frame the problem that the easy pickings are gone is absolutely right. We are a $3,000 per capita economy. We are we would like to be a 10,000 developer capita economy in a in a in a decade or so but we or maybe 15 years but but we we have solved the easy problems and now the hard problems will come. For the hard problems to get solved um you need massive amounts of risk capital because uh remember the the for an entrepreneur to function uh you need large amounts of risk capital. Mhm. uh because just ideas will not solve the problem. So uh so when you think about cost of capital uh and the availability of capital on both fronts there has been substantial progress.

So uh the the risk-free rate the long-term risk-free rate of capital in India or in any country is the 10-year bond yield of the government. Yeah. at about 6 and a half% and while many people contest that I think in a year's time it'll be below six this is the lowest outside of crisis times you know it was lower than this for a small period in 2003 um 3 4 uh because at that time you know the economy had slowed and >> anyway lots of things but that was exceptional >> and just to be clear this six and a half inflation adjusters more like 3 to 4%. uh yes uh and and u given that I do think and I think the market is still expecting next year's inflation to be four >> is more like 2 and a half% risk adjusted but uh so the real rates are of course important but I think the nominal rates itself themselves are actually very important so >> uh uh look at it from this perspective that there was a time when the 10-year US bond deal was at 2% >> the Indian bond deal was at 8% so there was a 6% gap >> today the US bond yield is 4.12 >> and the Indian is 6.5. So there's a 2 and a half% gap. I think in a year's time this could be a 1% point gap.

Um many large economies I mean in fact if you go back in history uh one of the reasons that the Dutch were ahead of Britain uh in the the 16th the 17th century >> was that they were known to be big savers and they managed to bring down their cost of capital. uh so so in order for because when your cost of capital is low >> your ability to take risk goes up because then you can uh you know it's a classic discount rate problem so then you can think about you know capital of returns coming 5 years later and then you can solve bigger problems what has also happened is that so this is the risk-free rate which is government cannot default uh and and and it's a 10-year re so you know long-term as well now if you're a AAA borrower or a double A borrower u uh or or an a borrower because you know the the the riskier borrowers of course the cost is higher now what you have in India is an exceptionally well capitalized banking system >> and the non-banking financial system >> so what you have today is that this is the first upturn so now the RBI has been cutting rates now monetizing has happened economy is now starting to take off um this is the first upcycle where the public sector undertaking banks, the PSU banks are not with impaired balance sheets. M >> so the last two times it happened 2004 to6 and 14 to 16 it was primarily because they had lent badly in the previous cycle they had broken balance sheet they couldn't >> this time they are so aggressive >> uh because on everything that is low risk like salaried mortgages >> must have seen the newspaper reports that PSU banks are gaining share in salaried mortgages >> because they're the safest asset that you can find >> and they're pricing out all the rest >> uh I am I'm aware of uh PSU banks lending to other PSUs one-year loans at 5.46%.

Uh so so this is uh and and I I was uh uh uh presenting at this this forum of an alternatives platform. Uh you know this firm got uh 15-year funds at 7 and a half%. So uh so it's absolutely remarkable uh how the cost of debt capital >> has come down. >> Yeah. and as the uh the competition in the financial system so the non-banking finance companies are well capitalized the banks are well capitalized >> the PSU banks are still competitive there is this development finance institution called NABFID national bank for financing of infrastructure and development which in 3 4 years time has developed a 60,000 cr balance sheet >> so it has now bought all the safe bonds so all the PSU bonds it has bought >> so if you are a private bank or an NBFC you really have to innovate and work hard to to to build a business >> and which means >> so while it's a challenge for banks like ours and we are of course completely up to it >> from the borrowers perspective things could have been any better this is this is debt capital >> but an equally important part is just about u the fact that venture capital exists >> now you have everything from angel investing clubs in >> 30 40 50 cities to pre- series A, series A, so on so forth to buy out funds.

And and so today there are funds that can actually buy out a billion dollar company. >> Um so so this was not possible 10 years back >> and uh and and this is being sustained by this remarkable change uh in the stock markets. >> Yeah. So to just to give you a a flavor of how remarkable the systematic investment plans are uh you know when you are trying to grow at three times the pace at which the developed markets did when they were going through this phase you're uh there's no way you can increase labor input at 3x the pace you can grow productivity at 3x the pace which we are doing and I'll come to that uh as to that's the third third leg of the argument but the capital formation needs to accelerate Yeah. >> Now if you only do debt capital then it won't work because it becomes very risky because then one downturn and the whole business gets you know goes to dust. So you need some amount of risk capital some amount of equity capital at this level of per capita income and per capita wealth. Uh it is unthinkable that we are generating so much of risk capital. So just to give you >> the numbers >> today there is $3.5 billion of SIP money coming into mutual fund equity mutual funds every month which is $42 billion a year which is give or take 1% of India's GDP. Yeah. And that's probably fair to say growing at least 10% and only >> it is growing faster than that. But whenever see for the last 5 years as this has kept growing people like me have said let's assume it doesn't grow >> right but but uh but yeah it is still growing >> and uh uh and and in addition there is EPFO >> to the provident fund organization which is now contributing I think 7 to8 billion a year in equity. There is also insurance. As insurance penetration grows, a certain amount of uh uh of the the the premiums are to be allocated into equities. >> So some people think it's $89 billion. I think that's too high. I think 60 to 70 >> from insurance alone. >> No combined. So so CSIP plus uh plus plus EPFO plus insurance plus >> there is also some discretionary. See there was it's not that you know Indians were never investing in equities, right? So the so if you put that together let's say on a sustained basis 70 80 so that's a massive amount of risk capital that is being generated now even if it is as some people fear it is misssold >> that that some of these uh SIP buyers >> are equating it to fixed deposits >> which they're not it is a risky asset >> uh if the stock market takes a deep dive and stays there a lot of people will will get burned >> u but um till the time that this is coming in it is like it's like you uh sunlight and fertilizer and a fertile soil and a whole new ecosystem is emerging >> and this whole thing has just emerged last even maybe max 10 years 10 years right >> this is post demonetization uh so during demonetization as a lot of black money uh uh you know was forced into the system uh many of these savers who were holding cash had to find better ways to deploy it and so that's where and then amphi the association of mutual funds of India >> launched this mutual funds Sah scheme um and uh that did some education and the SIPs have actually spread through word of mouth meaning that uh you know oh he earned so much he earned so much now someone can say this is almost like a Ponzi scheme the the stock markets have been going up because more and more people are joining the scheme >> uh but at the same time it is it is not really a Ponzi scheme because uh it is while P multiples are high >> uh it is backed by very strong nominal growth in GDP >> and also uh you know high single digit to double digit growth in earnings.

So uh uh so there is overvaluation uh from the investor's perspective but if you think about it from the entrepreneurs perspective this is >> very very good. So you have low cost of equity capital >> and because public markets cannot fund early stage entrepreneurs. Suppose you need uh you're not going to go to the stock market for 50 crores or 100 cror >> but for the VC >> who is giving you giving the entrepreneur that money >> the fact that there are exits down the road which can be enabled by this flow of money is a very important factor. So this feedback loop >> is very important and the more people who get exits so just like what you were talking about >> the more the likelihood that that VC then raises money and deploys it in India because you're going to get an exit here >> right >> and more entrepreneurs then get excited that look that guy made so much money that so I can also take risk >> and this is exactly what is needed >> for us to not get stuck in the middle income trap that create uh an ecosystem see middlecome trap I we have to solve dozens of problems right we have to create an R&D ecosystem which we don't have and there are different problems there but an integral part of that that system that we need to build is a system of risk capital >> where people jump in knowing that they may fail and that's where you solve the hard problems >> so the more of this capital that goes in uh the the better and the the cheaper the the risk capital becomes >> okay so this part of story what you're saying is First of all, you know, as a country, we have reached a critical mass of economic uh development, $3,000 per capita, nearly $4.5 trillion for the overall GDP size. Uh second, because of digital public infrastructure, and we'll talk more about that. Uh u the friction from the system has gone out. It's become easier for people to participate in equity markets, which have also done well. And now I've got this, you know, 6070 billion of capital coming in and net net of all of that is cost of debt capital is low, cost of equity capital is low. So that can uh encourage lot of uh risk taking but that is one pillar. Yes. >> What are the other enabler for this golden age of >> exactly? So I was so that was the third one which is uh which is uh ease of doing business. Now uh again ease of doing business is not improving as fast as you would like it. >> It's very uh when and frankly you know because it's a large and complex ecosystem there'll always be people on both sides of the spectrum. But what is remarkable is how rapidly regulations are being eased. >> Just this year, seven states and this I'm just giving example. So, seven states have allowed women amended their labor laws allowing women to work the night shift. >> Now, what is surprising of course to many people is that women were not allowed to work the night shift. uh [laughter] but but yeah there were restrictions and many of them are amendments to the shops and establishments act. So basically as modern trade as some of these shops these hair salons all of these start opening up and they uh they need women to be up and about till about 101 p.m. you need the labor laws to be amended and so these things are trying to happen.

Yeah. uh state governments are uh are uh are creating whitelists >> that if you belong to this this this industry you don't need to get environmental clearance >> you don't need to get XY Z clearance and um therefore uh the process of starting a company the process of expanding a company has becoming simpler it is still nightmarishly complex >> uh tax uh I think needs significant amount of simplification I think the tax authorities I think their behavior towards taxp recent GST reforms did it help this? >> It is it is huge. It is huge. Uh I I think uh the simplification the fact that there are only three rates you know >> just to give you a very uh clear example of how powerful this is. So when uh the honorable prime minister >> announced on 15th of August that there will be you know >> GST reforms um we had to decide what will be the impact >> because see I mean of course the government came up with an assessment a few weeks later but in the markets you have to be ahead of the curve. Now we were doing the math that if 28 and 12 are taken out how much revenue loss will there be? uh but then you had to first figure out which category will be mapped to which c with which rate. So the moment you start thinking about okay small cars are they going to 40 or they going to 18 >> it is straightforward. >> Yeah >> right. Yeah 18 right. So and whereas if you are 5 12 18 28 >> it is tricky. So uh so the fact that these are very clear distinct rates >> uh for food processing the rates have been 0 to5 >> now there are experts I'm not an expert on agriculture by any stretch of imagination but there are experts in food processing agriculture who say that in 5 years time a large part of India's food industry will get formalized >> because now there is no disadvantage >> in in staying outside the system or no no advantage in staying outside the system >> uh You think about how this shows the government's attitude towards consumption.

You know, you read the history of Marauti and I had multiple versions of that history. It was considered a luxury good. >> But with 18% the government is now finally disclosing that it does not consider cars to be a luxury good. >> Yeah. >> The fact that branded cosmetics does not need to be >> at uh at 18%. is also a realization that we are a $3,000 per capita economy. So I think the the GST changes are of course very very important but but at the same time there are changes happening in like decriminalization. I mean it is only when you read the clauses in various states that have been decriminalized. Did you know that if you built your own house and there was no provision for municipal piping, water piping, you could be sent to jail. >> Really? >> Yeah. Uh uh so the so because some of these were just archaic >> and what has been fascinating and this is where you know the society grows because we all learn from each other. >> You have to first solve the meta level problem >> meaning everyone said we have to deregulate we have to decriminalize >> but what do you deregulate? What do you decriminalize? So then there's this company team's reg. >> Now Rishi and his team have compiled this list of compliances. >> Now you can go to a ministry and talk to the secretary and say these are the clauses under your ministry which have a criminal penalty. >> Right. >> You'll be surprised many of the secretaries didn't know. >> And now that they know they say, "Oh, this is ridiculous. Remove it." >> Yeah. Mhm. >> So uh so so this is how and you know and many of these are just misused. It's not that >> you won't believe it. In one of the states uh someone threatened an office that the name of your office is in not the right font size so I'm going to put you in jail. >> Yeah. That that was a real thing. And so this guy phoned up the headquarters and the headquarter guys question said oh I no this is not not fair. This is completely wrong. I will sue them. Says sir he's only asking for 500 rupees. I'm going to give him 500. So, so this is how it was misused and harass and it was used for harassment. So, uh so this is also happening. So, uh while I think the time taken to start a business, >> uh the time taken to to wind down a business uh to get approvals >> is still massively higher than what it is in say Malaysia, Thailand.

There must be I mean see everyone's aware of this. We've been you know I'm sure ever since you've been you know been uh talking about you know policy and thinking about economic development and the ease of doing business I don't think anyone disagrees including I'm sure pretty much anyone who is has any say in policy what is the what's holding things back you know what will accelerate this aspect of uh making easy for entrepreneurs so one is external pressure >> external pressure will make it easy or will they make it easy? >> Mhm. >> So I I'll I'll give you an example uh or a story. Um so the leader of one u country >> so we had a president >> uh he was meeting five six of us economist types >> and he said you know India's tragedy is its large size and it glorious history. >> Now while all of us could see the large size and glorious history we couldn't understand how this was tragic. And he said this is why you don't change >> because there's never an existential risk. >> Now you think about why is it that shrimp exports to Europe now there were headlines two days back that you know shrimp exports to Europe are now going to stamp up. All that has happened is that there were non-tariff barriers there some regulatory issues which the commerce ministry because the shrimp that 50% duty to us meant that Indian shrimp exports couldn't go there. So they worked on it in a few weeks it dissolved. >> So it had to wait for uh uh the US to put a 50% tariff where before people woke up and said oh this is easy to do. M uh what is also happening I think is like for example take Aadhaar we uh you know Aadhaar was was cutting edge >> when it was designed u but when it was designed iPhone was 2 years old there was effectively no Android >> today there are you know 850 to billion uh smartones phones in India.

Yeah. >> So when I joined Aadhaar, uh my first question was why aren't we using an Aadhaar app? >> So we had a my Aadhaar Madhar app. >> Um and it was it yeah I mean it was it was effectively a replica of the website and you know PBC card or the PBC card and all that. >> I said look this is a huge tool for engaging with users directly >> right. Uh it is uh and believe me no there was no resistance. >> So someone had to give an idea and someone had to push it through. >> Yeah. >> Where are we with that >> perhaps? >> So our app is actually um uh it has been soft launched. >> U so there are now already I've seen some reals and all of that on how easy to use it is and all that. Um and uh so we are now signing up on use cases. >> Mhm. >> Where you go to a hotel and just like you scan a QR code to make a payment. You scan a QR code and you share the details that you need to >> you don't have to give your Aadhaar and then someone takes a photo copy and you don't know what happens. >> That's outstanding. So is that those are going to be real use cases. I can tell you yes mention my Aadhaar and >> No, you just scan your Aadhaar and your in your app and you say I want to share whatever is required. Right. So name and address >> right >> and that's it. Um you can do age gating. So uh you can if you are say going to a concert you just have to scan it and say okay I will just share my age or year of my age. >> So you don't need your physical ID in most places. You don't. So this is what I told the team that look it is embarrassing >> that you know you go to an airport and you show your boarding pass on your on your phone and then you take out your Aadhaar card and then you show you know we just you know exactly or you go to many government offices and they say ID >> and you show but you if you make it digital and you can see it's all privacy protected so it's not that just because there is you can actually do offline uh so long as it is authenticated. So there is so much more that the Aadhaar app can actually so the example I'm giving or or or take the example of say the Aadhaar can now uh we were all aware that there is a massive amount of overcharging happening >> that you know on Twitter I get marked there are lots of emails that we get that mobile phone update cost 50 rupees they charge me 150 rupees there was this guy in my village who for his two kids had who paid 2,000 rupees each >> and I was talking to my father in my weekly Sunday call and he said oh you know Vander's son of the kids they they took 2,000 rupees yesterday >> so I asked the Aadhaar folks since when did we start charging for for Aadhaar for kids he said oh no shouldn't happen you give me his number so gave his number he said that was right he was overcharging we suspended the operator said okay great job. Now what happens? So they will appoint a new operator. New new operator there. Who will you need to appoint a new operator? So the state government the state government's done this. So I said really because I'm not even a bureaucrat. >> You really think that that overcharging was going into the operator's pocket? >> Yeah. >> So how do we solve this? >> And the team then decided that we should increase supply. >> Yeah. >> The economic solution is to increase supply. So what we have done now just like TCS runs the passport office uh uh private sector >> intervention. So we have now so we had our own what 80 odd adhar sea now we have one in every district. >> Okay. >> So it's starting off in November. So we've identified there was a RFP it took its own time in you know structuring it you know what is the right level of compensation was a bidding how much cost it will incur but now all so what I'm saying is that for a while uh this was not happening but now you will see that uh or or or you know just one one one one another fascinating example and this is something which is not in production but let's see if we can get take it there You know Google has a very unique problem in India. >> So if there are a billion smartphones, there are three and a half billion Gmail ids. >> And their understanding is that most of these Gmail ids are because when someone buys this Android phone, the shopkeeper just generates a random Gmail ID, sets it up, and gives it to them. >> They've lost all their previous data >> and and the old Gmail ID is never going to be used. And this one is of course the new and all of the things have to be reset. What if its primary purpose and if you see that in the name of the law the act as well it was to to uniquely identify beneficiaries of government subsidy. >> But today uh you know it is it is it is doing more things than it was supposed to do. >> This is the kind of most uh credible identity that every exactly and therefore it is starting to take on roles which it was not designed for. So for example, it is used as proof of date of birth. >> It is used as proof of address. But we are not I mean we are not the first proof of date of birth. And I can tell you that there are people I mean the first legal notice I got in my life was when someone sent a notice to the Aadhar chairman >> that I think he was not being allowed to change his date of birth more than twice. >> There are people who changed it 10 times. And all the times we check the the date of birth from the with the with the with the proper like you know there's a birth certificate what what is the incentive to change your date of birth but there's massive incentive >> so there are sports people >> who to meet certain age criteria they can keep changing and they'll say my coach told me to >> uh and there are established systems like you I said we we insist now on QR codes on birth certificate so that we can go to the source of origin and validate that it is not a fraud they're generating 10 genuine dates birth certificates, right? >> Uh so there's clearly fraud happening somewhere but it's not with us >> but uh we cannot be because we are not the primary source of data birth. They're not the primary s proof of address >> but like friend of ours I mean you know him as well >> he said that you know everyone must be complaining to you about >> Aadhaar >> this didn't happen that didn't happen and he's absolutely correct I only get to know the bad cases >> but he said I must to tell you that how happy I am that I just changed my Aadhaar address he had changed his house and in one click of a button all my bank addresses got update >> I said yeah great job we are not proof of address but the banks do use this as a proof of boost proof of address. This is exactly what you're saying because this is the most credible proof of identity. So it is starting to take on additional roles which it is currently not what is connect I mean Aadhar is obviously very useful. I think it's uh and is great if more and more use cases are being enabled and as you're saying you know we also bringing in the updating the technology and bringing it up par with what's the latest greatest but what is the big picture here? What does cutting edge in Aadhaar enable for the country or for the individual?

Um so one I think uh it it you you you should be able to trust. >> Mhm. >> Uh that if Aadhar has said this person is the person >> then you know you don't need to doubt it. >> Does it link back to ease of doing business? I'm just trying to see like what is the you know what is the larger >> it is it is that uh you know uh establishing trust >> is such an integral part of um okay so how is it that um India is such an outlier in terms of you know the penetration or the ability to collect equity capital and mutual fund inflows and the number of people who invest in mutual funds versus this per cap tank. >> H >> we're an outlier. I was talking to this uh uh person who kind of runs the data body for the US manufacturer mutual funds >> association. He was saying you know $30 a month. So you know SIPs >> is about 2,600 rupees or 700 rupees a month in 11 cr folios. >> M that cost it's not possible. >> Yeah. You only can do that because you are able to do KYC at a fraction of the cost. >> Yeah. >> And that you if you can't trust the KYC, you won't be able to do it. >> So it is Aadhaar as the name says is it's the right platform. Right. So and so okay this is just one example but you know coming back to the ease of doing business I think uh regulators are are at it. their their questioning. In fact, uh there was a remarkable statement uh from the RBI governor recently >> actually part of the the the the policy document that came out that u you know the allocation of business between entities of a financial conglomerate >> will be left to the wisdom of the boards. Now compared to where regulators would try to prescribe >> that if there's a financial conglomerate and there are these 10 different groups then okay only one entity will do one business >> right >> he's saying that look you decide >> now >> that's very important >> uh for even competition to exist within between groups within between entities of the same group >> so uh so I think these changes are progressively happening I think across starting to happen across regulators um at this stage >> we are in late 2025 we are at an easing stage >> um there's this very hard to understand risk cycle or risk perception at a population level >> which I doubt anyone understands. I don't know if you've read any books and if you have I would very happy to point out that how is it that the the split of between males and females in a population is in such a narrow band >> right because you would think that if it is completely random then it could be swinging >> lot of large numbers >> it it applies to cities applies to states applies to countries >> they're all in that 950 2050 brand right males to females Uh so at a population level there are lots of things happen that we don't understand. So so same with uh risk appetite for regulation.

Mhm. >> Till two years back for some reason it was a time for tightening regulations. >> Yeah. >> So every regulator was trying to tighten things. >> Now uh we are in a stage where every large regulator seems to be easing regulations and very famously government has two committees. every state has a uh you know janiswas bill where they are decriminalizing things of that which is great. So, so coming back to the first point, I think if you're if you're uh cost of capital, debt and equity, availability of capital, various types of capital, geographies of capital, uh uh because you know which city you are located in and all that, >> uh access to infrastructure, >> you know, Indian port efficiency now is now comparable to that of Singapore. It's actually better than that. uh uh we are we have very efficient uh air travel >> uh you know very affordable air travel. Yeah. >> Uh so so the road infrastructure is improving. So there is significant amount of progress in terms of the environment for entrepreneurship. We can still complain and we should uh try to >> maybe you know maybe I'm looking at entrepreneurship from very narrow band of you know whatever starting an internet company or some technology innovation but I think you mean entrepreneurship much more broader sense. >> Oh yeah yeah so I I mean that you know if you're if you're say uh if you were doing uh precision manufacturing for an aircraft component >> and you want to transition from that to doing that for a mobile phone >> Yeah. or an electric vehicle u and you're setting up a new factory. The raising of capital for that, the permissions for that, the approvals for that, >> getting the land for that is now a lot easier than it used to be. >> But most of that entrepreneurship which I presume is probably a much larger chunk of entrepreneurship in the country is outside of this whole VC public market exit ecosystem. This is very different type of you know >> no actually you'll be surprised. So uh so when you when you okay so very large part of the innovation is actually happening in the financial ecosystem. So a lot of the fintexs >> um are in India today are really cutting edge >> uh and and perhaps many years ahead of their peers in other markets >> because of the digital public infrastructure we have >> uh but at the same time and so they are real world businesses these are not just internet.com >> kind of businesses >> uh even in manufacturing so hardware manufacturing >> is where there is so much excitement now >> precision manufacturing ing uh uh or even you know you want to do set up a data center >> the the uh pace at which you get approvals amount of land you need the energy you need so state governments have figured out for example that uh uh if you can't compete on the cost of energy >> the people will not come to you >> and uh so so while the hard task is to do distribution reform >> yeah you know stop subsidies or reduce subsidies and so on so forth what they're saying is that okay we'll solve that but for now let me give explicit fiscal subsidy and say I'll give you power at 2 rupees 3 rupees the kilowatt hour >> so uh so those things are starting to happen and and I I believe I see so many of these VCs like we discussed semiconductors in the last uh uh two years there have been so many Indian VCs >> which have now uh started focusing on building capabilities on uh Indian chip design companies Mhm. >> So I was speaking at the the annual day of one of these venture capital firms >> and I met three entrepreneurs.

Yeah. >> Who were actually solving really hard problems. Got it. Got it. Uh and there this you know just going back to where we started this whole golden age of entrepreneurship. Is there a sectoral view to this or type of opportunity or perhaps even geographical view to it? big cities versus small cities like what are the other lenses from which to process what is this opportunity about who it is accessible to yeah so it that I think is uh see some of the sectors are naturally about large pools of capital so as we discussed if you want to set up a steel plant today you need uh $45 billion only a few groups have that if you want to set up a large power plant >> you know so those are things which >> uh only the established guys can do large refinery um you know big airports. uh but the moment it comes to uh say the hardware tech ecosystem >> uh the kind of uh uh you know momentum I see >> in because you know Apple has decided to uh partner with just like they did with China they wanted to do that in India >> or you know 80% of the the capital stock in terms of housing and infrastructure that we will have in 2015 50 has not been built yet. >> Uh so so there will be many such businesses uh which will actually >> uh have to get created. There will be there will be consolidation. There will be formalization as I said >> uh food processing >> uh you know >> the luxury to have brands >> is uh is is dependent on your income. >> Yeah. So when you just want to have I mean I'm sure you remember that you know there was a time when people used to buy edible oil there was a big container and they would just dig it out and put it in some container right so >> from that to branded and uh whatever fortified and this and that >> uh I doubt there's much value add but at least the brands are there so to be able to afford a brand >> so I think branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption u will will will go up a lot across sectors Branded consumption 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A lot of threat coming out of China. I know, and I was going to give another thread, which is even the, I was reading today, uh, uh, that, um, the use of AI models even in the Bay Area. People are becoming fans of DeepSeek and Cuban, and you know, so, so there is a, uh, uh, so there will be more competition. Uh, and, uh, uh, and so, so each of these firms has to keep running. So you will see that if Apple stops innovating, of course, it can last for a couple of years without a big feature change and all that, but if it doesn't, it falls behind.

Look, and somehow, US and China will be fine. Where does this leave India? This look, right now, this whole mostly geopolitical war, especially around big tech, is between China and US. But we are in some way, bit of a bystander. But how does, how do we play this? See, at $4,000 for $4 trillion GDP and $3,000 per capita GDP, uh, we had, we have so many internal opportunities that we, I mean, of course, we have to be careful because we are all users of big tech. I mean, we can, if tomorrow Gmail was to shut down, uh, it would be a huge problem for all of India. In fact, there was this, uh, Twitter enabling 3.5 billion Gmail accounts using ADA. [laughter] I know one, maybe 1 billion are being used. But point is that, um, yeah, so there's a huge issue. Uh, someone was, uh, tweeting today about how if YouTube was to be shut down.

Yeah. So the revenue loss for content generators will be only 12,000 crores. But, uh, the, the social instability will be massive. Right. So all the people who are kind of keeping themselves busy watching YouTube videos will suddenly have time and they start finally. We'll have finally the workforce will be unleashed, you know.

Yeah. Yeah. But, but, but I think there are risks, but at the same time, I'll go back to the point I keep making that as we go from $4 trillion to $20 trillion, in GDP, at some point.

Yeah. Of the extra $16 trillion, 15 will come from India.

Yeah. So the opportunities are all, are mostly in India. Export competitiveness helps, uh, from the perspective of productivity, the channel of transmission. See, if you're able to export, means that you are competitive. But that, look, that 15, the dependence of that on big tech, is that a significant consideration? Doesn't matter whether, as long as we are producing here, consuming here, it's fine, you know. So see, so long as, see, because what also happens is that many of these people are, see, the business opportunity is there. Uh, someone will create a solution.

So, you know, and I know that, you know, some of these products. Okay. So in AI, maybe the engines may not be as sophisticated, and they will be slightly less efficient. But so many of these models are open source. Uh, secondly, if say a Gmail copy has to be created, or it'll, you know, you may lose access to a lot of data, but hopefully Google is not going to go down that path. But, uh, the data localization, etc., will make sure that at least, you know, there is some protection.

So there are risks, but I think the opportunities are all in bringing down unit costs.

Mhm. Uh, it was because the unit cost of a financial transaction was brought down that we have digital public infrastructure, financial inclusion, which is well ahead of what our per capita GDP shows. Uh, or mutual fund or risk capital generation, way ahead of what our per capita GDP shows. Uh, if we can use some of these tools to solve the same problems in education and health, uh, like, you know, Bihar and UP spend more as a percentage of GSDP on education, than Kerala. I didn't know this. But the per student spend in Kerala is five times that of Bihar and UP. So it's one of those classic economic, vexed, you know, vicious cycle problems because you don't have income, you can't spend, and because you can't spend, you can't get income. Right. So the way to break through this is to bring down the unit cost. And, and so how can we do that? And how can we solve some of these problems? So there's enough for us to do. I think the world seems scary, but believe me, we've been through scarier times. And if you really go through, like the granular history of the last 30, 40, 50, 60, 100 years.

Mhm. M I can't think of any time which we didn't have, there was no scale.

Call. So basically, what you're saying is, there's enough and more to do within India. There is a lot of momentum, and all the data that you're quoting speaks for itself. And if we just somehow, we maintain that momentum, we can watch this, you know, unfolding of global geopolitics. Part of it is entertainment, part of it, maybe we need to do something strategic, but probably not overblow it also, and give too much credence to our entire fate is linked to how this geopolitics shakes up.

Exactly. And, and, you know, the, the real world does not move at the whims and fancies of individuals or an individual. An individual.

[laughter] And, and we are seeing that. So in, in the first Trump administration, there were adults around him which stopped all the, let's say, a large part of the immature stuff from coming out. Uh, today, that's not happening. But if the immature stuff starts coming, starts coming out, it'll get rebuffed by the, the real world. So we are already seeing tariff pullbacks. Supreme Court is now already questioning the, the constitutional legitimacy of reciprocal tariffs. So all of these things, you know, so this book, "Fear," which Bob Woodward wrote about the first Trump administration, is called "Fear" because Trump thinks, thinks that power is exercised through fear. So if you know that all he's trying to do is incite fear so he can wield power over you, the first thing to do is not feel afraid. So, uh, and I, and I think that's, and it's not just false bravado. That's how the world runs.

Cool. I think that's a pretty good note of optimism, Nilant. I think, uh, you continue to have, you know, uh, keep yourself appraised of what's happening. I think you are, I think now playing a very active policy shaping role through a variety of, uh, your, your, your roles across Semiconductor Mission and UIDAI. Yeah, like mouthful, but I think the overall kind of driving the next phase of evolution and a lot of innovation around that. And I think you have a way of explaining the complex world, what it means for us, how we can navigate. So it's, uh, always, you know, very, uh, helpful to talk to you. Thanks for being the back.

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India 2026: What’s Really Coming | Top Economist | Neelkanth Mishra | SparX

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