Transcription
And hello everyone and welcome to Vision Crypton this Saturday, November 22, 2025. And yes, I think you are suffering. And yes, we have just broken the 86,000. You said we shouldn't break them and now it will be very, very important to see, precisely, the end of the week, this weekend, Sunday. We hope that we will have a real rebound here and that we will go back into the 86,000 zone. If we ever close weekly below 86,000, well, that will be very, very negative. If I look here weekly, well, you see that we haven't broken the structure yet. I had noted it here. We'll put it back, by the way, there, really here. Weekly, we absolutely must not break 7450. But if we ever break 86,000, well, that won't necessarily be a very, very positive sign. We would really need to go back up here into this RLZ, make a real rebound here, and then leave again. So yes, for the moment, it's not positive at all, indeed. And if we ever break this low, well, clearly we can say that we will go even lower. We could make a potential rebound here and then go a little lower. And then afterwards, well, we will see if this scenario comes true, how far we can go south. We will see that, of course, in other daily updates. I don't want to scare everyone, of course, or start making catastrophic scenarios when we are not there yet. Everything in its own time. We will see today and tomorrow how we will close the days, what we could possibly see. So today, well, probably not much, you know that on Saturdays, generally nothing much happens. we could see stagnation and tomorrow, Sunday, we might possibly see either a rise to close the week here above 86,000, which would be positive, I remind you, and then, on the other hand, we would mark a bearish CME gap, meaning that there would be a high probability that on Monday, hop, we would fill the CME gap downwards and then leave again. In any case, that would be one of the most bullish scenarios. Of course, the most bullish scenario would be to leave again and break all these previous highs here. But for the moment, just re-entering 86,000 is what we would really like to see. There are positive signs, however. Look yesterday, on the macroeconomic level, we have the services PMIs which are above expectations. We have the manufacturing PMIs which are below expectations, but by almost nothing, 0.1, so it was really very, very weak. So almost what was expected, and on the other hand, the services PMIs, as I said, were above expectations. So the macro news is rather good here, on these figures from yesterday, and yet we haven't made a strong rebound. On the contrary, we went very low on our friend BTC. We have other good news. Look here, I told you that I was monitoring the funding rates very closely and I told you that well, look, we hadn't gone into negative funding rates even once. Well, that's it, yesterday we went into negative funding rates here. So yes, it's relatively low, I grant you, but in any case, it's a first signal and therefore possibly a bottom signal. I know, I keep telling you it's the bottom, it's the bottom, it's the bottom. The fact is that each time, I truly believe it, but here we have an additional signal of a potential bottom. Once again, maybe I will be wrong. Maybe we will go lower and maybe we will go to 74,500, break this structure, and ultimately truly enter a bear market. Once again, no one has the truth. We will see what happens over time. But there, I wanted to show you this because you know that I monitor it and this is relatively important. So, of course, in terms of liquidation, we were very heavily liquidated. Of course, we quickly recreate liquidity here. But you see, even here, here in the short term, we have also recreated a lot of liquidity. Anyway, I keep telling you, we have a lot, a lot of liquidity to the north. We have a huge interest in going north. That's not new. But for the moment, there is strong downward pressure. Look here too. Here, we clearly see the interest to the north and not at all the interest to the south. And as I said, we have strong downward pressure. Today, I don't know what the funding rate is because, as you know, I can't see it. It's not loading because I'm on the boat, some sites don't work, and I can't see it. So, by the way, don't hesitate to tell me in the comments again. Yesterday we were at 11. I saw in the comments that someone had pointed it out to me. We were at 11. Now, tell me if we have dropped to 10 or 9. That would be truly incredible. That would be very, very low. In any case, there is real fear that has set in and clearly, it is justified, when you see this, it is truly justified. There is real fear. And so, I would be really surprised if we truly end this bull run without having gone to seek all the liquidity to the north, without having had retail arrive, without having had a zone of real euphoria, except at the end of 2024. But well, of course, it could be a first, even if for the moment, I still say that I remain bullish as long as we haven't broken this 74,500 dollar zone. There is also another element, you know, I show it to you every time too, but we have the market caps of USDT, USDC which are constantly, constantly pumping. Here, I'm in weekly and you see that weekly, what are we doing? We continue to print, print, print USDT. We have a lot of liquidity. And so, well, where will this liquidity go? Here we have a lot of liquidity and normally it should be used to buy back the lows, the lows we are currently at. Really, we are very, very low, whether it's on altcoins or on BTC Ethereum. And so, well, I think we could have a large spill of this liquidity precisely for the repurchase of cryptocurrencies. In any case, I strongly hope so. Regarding ETFs yesterday, look, on the other hand, rather positive, we had inflows, 238 million inflows on the BTC ETF on the 21st. And for Ethereum, we also had inflows. We broke this big, big streak, you see that we had here, we broke it, and there, we had 55.7 million inflows. We had inflows even though we went very low again. So, this, it's done, it could once again possibly mark a bottom and finally having inflows in ETFs could also allow the market to pump if we have finally found the bottom. It could be very positive and I hope we will leave very strongly because I think that's it, the market has made a lot of people give up. Of course, in terms of liquidation, we did very, very badly again. Look, 1.44 billion long liquidations. Yes, it's absolutely colossal. In total, we did 1.69 billion, but we only had 242 million shorts. Really, it's the longs that were truly assassinated. We did, anyway, look at BTC here, we had a real cascade and look, we went down to 80,570. So, we really had a sharp drop. I told you here when I did the daily update that we shouldn't go below it and all that. Well, yes, we went below it and we even went very, very quickly to seek it. We lost, you see, nearly 7000 dollars in a few hours here. In a few wicks, so in 4-5 hours we went very low and we made a wick that was truly assassinating and that's where we truly liquidated a lot of longs. Regarding good news too, well, attention, of course, this is only from Ledger's co-founder. And he says, I quote, "We've seen ups and downs on Bitcoin for over 10 years." It's true that we've been on a Bitcoin price crash for about a month, but I don't think we're in a bear market, because unlike previous crashes, there's no systemic crash. Here, the fundamentals are green, and he's perfectly right. When you look at the whole picture, everything is okay to leave, and yet, well, we are going down, and we are going down strongly. And so I continue, there is still institutional interest. Luxembourg has declared that it will add Bitcoin to its national reserves. That's true too, we had seen it on the channel. Today, Bitcoin is seen as a technological asset. There is some uncertainty, but I don't think we are heading for a long-term decline. So here, we see that Eric Larchevec is also always bullish. I am too. Now, again, this is only his opinion. This is only my opinion, the market will ultimately be right. That's it, team, nothing more to tell you. We really hope to re-enter 86,000 quickly because if we continue to sink, if we get closer to this level, well, it won't be a very good sign. You understood that well. For all the people who want TradingView here and who don't want the free version because it's limited in terms of indicators, well, if you want to take advantage of TradingView not too expensively, well, now is the time. Look, you have Black Friday and everyone usually buys at that time, and so, well, you get it at 80% discount. That's what I have here. You see, I'm still on premium and I'm going to take advantage of it to buy it again. And if you want to take advantage of it, well, you have the link directly in my description. Team, I'll leave you with that. I wish you an excellent day. I'll tell you tomorrow in the daily update and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!