Transcription
Week 17 is here. Fantasy football tight end tier list. My top 32 or so tight ends for fantasy this week. Good luck in your championships.
Let's get it kicked off by talking about the two biggest injuries that we need to talk about at this position before we can say anything else. George KD, he said after the game that it was not a high ankle sprain that he suffered in the game. The 49ers were up 14 points when he went down. They play Sunday Night Football versus the Chicago Bears this week. If they win this game, then week 18's game against Seattle is for maybe the number one seed in the NFC. Definitely right now the number one seed in the NFC, but for sure the NFC West because the 49ers do have the tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Rams. Even if the Rams win out, if the 49ers win this week, then there's a chance they're playing for the number one seed and definitely the NFC West in week 18. So, I do think that George KD will end up playing, but we'll have to keep an eye on practice reports and monitor those situations. I'll have any updates in the pin comment down below.
Still monitoring David and Jooku as well. He missed the last two games with a knee injury. If he's out yet again versus Pittsburgh, big game ahead for Harold Fannon who's been absolutely sensational since he's been out. Also monitoring Noah Fant only because Mike Cassiki had a season high in routes with Noah Fant out last week and ended up scoring as a top 12 option. So something that uh we want to keep in mind is that the Bengals tight end Mike Caseiki would see a big upgrade if Noah Fant were to be out yet again.
But let's get into the tier list itself. Trey McBride, the only tight end in the number one tier because he is the best tight end in fantasy. Of course, a down performance against the Atlanta Falcons, who have only allowed two touchdowns to the tight end position all season. One of the best tight end defenses in football. Trey McBride plays the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The 32nd ranked Cincinnati Bengals. I am terrified of Trey McBride in my home league because I am going up against him in the week 17 finals. Tight ends this season versus the Cincinnati Bengals. This is an absurd statline. 148 targets in 15 games, 1362 receiving yards, 15 touchdowns, five more than any other team has allowed to this position. When the Bills played the Bengals two weeks ago, all three of their starting tight ends scored a touchdown, 22.7 PPR points per game. If Trey McBride is right for this game and Cincinnati plays as they have against the tight end position on defense, I am going to get smacked by this dude. So, if you have Trey McBride, feel very confident that he can be a huge anchor for you.
Number two tight end, I do have George KD ranked here, assuming he plays. Again, any updates I will leave below in the comments and I'll let you know. Kind of Jake Tongus probably wouldn't factor in too too much. He'd probably be a low-end streamer at best, but George KD versus the 20th ranked Chicago Bears on Sunday football. KD's a monster. 23 plus fantasy points in four of their last six games. When healthy, he's been as elite as it gets. Now he's banged up. Practice will be key. As I said, it's probably more of a low ankle sprain than a high ankle sprain. This game versus the Bears would go a long way in deciding the number one seed in the NFC, and I'm sure the 49ers want that buy. And of course, they want week 18 up for grabs for the NFC West. So, George KD, my guess is that he plays, but I will update the pin comment if anything changes.
Brock Bowers, my number three tight end versus the New York Giants, who are eighth against fantasy football tight ends. So, they're pretty good against this position, but they're a bad defense overall. Bowers only had 14.3 PPR points this past week. But, as I talked about throughout the week, I was not going to sit him. There were people on Twitter, respected analysts, who I trust and I think make good content, saying that they were sitting Brock Bowers for Cole Kmet, Cole Parkinson, Waller, some of those type of players. It's Brock Bowers, man. You never sit this guy because even in what was not even that great of a game for him, 14.3 points, he's just gets all the targets. He gets all the work. And we know what he's capable of. We saw it against the Chargers in week 13. We saw it against Jacksonville, especially in week nine. You can never sit this guy. So, Brock Bowers, tight end three for me on the week, even despite a some a somewhat, you know, middle of the road matchup. Gino Smith and the uh Raiders going against the Giants this week is likely going to decide who gets the first pick in the draft. And maybe that means Gino Smith says a big [ __ ] you to this franchise and wins a meaningless game or something.
Um, Harold Fannon, my number four tight end, moving into the next tier, which is like the every week starters. I just have two guys in here because I do think the rest of the tight end position is going to be decision-making. We're going to need to be sharp here. So, pay attention over the next couple of minutes. Harold Fannon's an every week starter. Whether David Enjoku comes back or not, he's going to be ranked tight end four for me against the 29th ranked Pittsburgh Steelers who back in week six he posted seven for 81 on 10 targets against. Um, and Joku's missed practice all of last week. He'll probably be out for this game yet again. Fannon's a monster. Two touchdowns, 19.5 PPR points this past week. That's now four touchdowns in his last four games. He's played 90 plus percent of the snaps in five straight games. And the Steelers allow the third most targets and the second most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. And like I said, Fannon already cooked them earlier this year. So definitely a very good option this week.
Kyle Pitts I have ranked as an every week starter still because of what he's done the last couple of games. 45.6 against the Bucks obviously 18.7 against the Arizona Cardinals. He goes seven for 57 and a touch. Um Kyle Pitts against the average ranked Los Angeles Rams pass defense against tight ends. They're 12th. It's important to know here that this game has a 49 and a half point overunder and the Falcons are at home in a dome game. So no weather in a pass heavy game script versus an offensive juggernaut like the Los Angeles Rams. They're probably going to be playing from behind. These two teams are going to know each other very well offensively because Zack Robinson comes from the Rams and of course knows how McVey likes to run offenses and stuff. So could be an interesting game. Could end up being a little bit lower scoring than 49 and a half because they know each other so well. But I do think that Kyle Pitts is slated for a very good game.
Now, streamers tier, very big group of guys because I think you can make the argument for any which one of these players to be ranked close to the top of this tier. It's all going to depend what you need. Again, I'll try and highlight is this a floor play, a ceiling play, median, whatever the case is.
Jawan Johnson to me is both a high ceiling and a high floor play, which is why I have him ranked as tight end sixth this week against the 18th ranked Tennessee Titans. Since Shuck took over, Jawan Johnson has been consistently getting receptions, four plus receptions in every game with Tyler Shuck so far. Hasn't scored a touchdown since week 10. And yet, he's still the tight end eight over that period of time with 11.7 PPR points per game. So, this is a dude, especially in like tight end premium formats, he's getting receptions, he's getting targets. Now he gets the Tennessee Titans who have been torched through the air over the past month before the Chiefs game when they're going up against like third string quarterbacks. The Titans had allowed 264 passing yards on defense their previous five games on average. So I do think that Chuck and the um Saints are going to be able to throw the ball in this game and Jawan Johnson, Chris Olave and all those guys are going to be a huge beneficiary of that.
Hunter Henry, my tight end seven for the week against the New York Jets. They are 15th against fantasy tight ends. Hunter Henry has four or more receptions in 75% of his games this season. Drake May is probably looking to cement his MVP case against a lowly, more abundant Jets team that both quarterbacks, Tyler Shuck and Trevor Lawrence that they've played the last two games threw for 300 plus yards. If Drake May is going to throw for 300 plus yards, how does Hunter Henry not have at least 50 yards in a couple of catches? I think he's a high floor play. Again, maybe not as much of a ceiling, but I do think given that he plays with Drake May and they could score 30 plus points in this one, he could easily catch a touchdown, maybe two.
Next up, I have Jake Ferguson. Now, this is a ceiling play because we've seen over the last couple of games that the floor is quite low with Jake Ferguson. But the reason I think this is a good ceiling swing is that the Washington Commanders are 31st against opposing tight ends. Has Jake Ferguson been good lately? Absolutely not. But is Dak Prescott live to flame this defense for 400 plus yards and four touchdowns? Absolutely. And if that happens, Jake Ferguson is probably going to have the upside for two plus touchdowns, the upside for 80 plus receiving yards and a couple of catches. So despite two down performances, he's gotten at least four targets in all but two games this season, and he can easily get back on track versus the second most touchdowns allowed defense in football, the Washington Commanders.
Tight end number nine, I have Brenton Strange. Um, Jags are playing great right now. The Indianapolis Colts are 26th against fantasy tight end. Strange is a bit up and down target-wise, as you can see. There's some games where he has three targets, some games he has seven targets, but he's a red zone target nonetheless. And George Kittle just flamed this defense as we saw before he left that game early. The Jaguars are implied for 27 points. I kind of just want pieces of their offense this week. This is probably also more of a ceiling play just because Strange is not like every single game involved in the offense. He sometimes has duds because he just gets phased out of a game plan, but he could score two touchdowns because Trevor Lawrence is playing that well.
Um, Cole Kmet also probably another ceiling play here. Um, the 49ers are 22nd against fantasy tight ends. Good news about last week for Cole Kmet is that despite Cole Kittle playing, and he did play in the game, 82% of the routes, which is a season and career high for Cole Kmet, San Francisco is exploitable by tight ends. And if Romo Dun is out, which is probably trending in that direction, and Luther Burden is out, which is probably a coin flip whether or not he comes back, we should see Cole Kmet um see a big-time upgrade. If both of those receivers get ruled out, and I forgot to mention this in last week's video, if both of those receivers get ruled out, I'd be comfortable moving Cole Kmet up near the top of this tier, whether it's tight end six, tight end seven, tight end eight, I would say comfortably he would be a top eight tight end, probably after Henry and Johnson's because of the floors that they have. But if you wanted to put him as high as six or even potentially into the the top tier, the B tier there with Pitts, I don't think that's outrageous. I just for now I'm going to I'm going to assume that Burden is playing but not Odun. So, I'll kind of hedge my bets a little bit on that.
Um, Dallas Goedert, who scored a lot better than where I have him ranked right now at tight end 11, but I'm worried about this matchup. The Buffalo Bills, this game only has a 43 and a half point overunder. The Bills are number one in the NFL against opposing tight ends. And Dallas Goedert has been touchdown or bust. If he doesn't catch a touchdown last week, he has a horrible game. He would have literally put up like two points. And the Bills have allowed the fewest receptions to tight ends in the NFL. And Goedert's targets have been inconsistent. So, he is truly a touchdown bus. If you think he's going to score a touchdown, start him. If you don't think he's going to score a touchdown, you probably shouldn't start him because he is probably going to have a down game in that situation.
My number 12 tight end is Dalton Schultz at the Los Angeles Chargers. Schultz has been really good since the Texans buy, as I've pointed out a couple of different times. He's been a top 10 tight end in all but three games, including last week's game against the Raiders, who were actually pretty good against tight ends coming into the week. At the Los Angeles Chargers, they're seventh against tight ends. Schultz, again, 39 and a half point overunder. So, it doesn't get me excited to have pieces in this game. It's on the road. It's in Los Angeles. The Chargers are bottom five in tight end receptions and yards allowed. So, it's not a good matchup, but Schultz has been so good that I'm kind of just putting respect on how he's performed lately. But, it does kind of profile as a down game for Dalton Schultz waiting to happen. So, just keep that in mind. I think his ceiling is high, but probably not his floor because of the matchup, the fact that they're on the road in the defense. They're going up against his top five pretty much across the board in every EPA mark success rate, that kind of thing.
Tyler Warren definitely a ceiling play because his floor has been very low the last three games despite having six, six and nine targets the last three weeks. He has scored outside of the top 20 tight ends in all of those games. Now Jacksonville is 23rd against tight ends. So they're an exploitable defense. Warren had nine targets last week. Philip Rivers looked functional. Um I realize Warren's been bad, but he's still a very talented player. He's still capable of doing the types of things that he did earlier on in the season. And tight ends versus Jacksonville have been targeted 131 times this season, which is number four in the NFL. You can trust Warren in your fantasy championship. If you're looking for a ceiling, he's too talented, in my opinion, to put up a dud when he's getting six or more targets in three straight games. Generally speaking, you get six plus targets from this guy, he should have a pretty solid performance, even six Philip Rivers targets included.
So, u moving into the next group of tight ends here. Now, these are the guys that I would call more low-end streamers. If you have to start them, you're probably not in great shape. You'd rather have somebody in the tier above. But these guys are are startable nonetheless.
Mike Gesicki versus the Arizona Cardinals. The Cincinnati Bengals are implied for 32.5 points. And the Cincinnati Bengals are in a game environment that has a 53 and a half point overunder. Favored by seven with Joe Burrow fresh off of frying some Miami Dolphins. He is easily live to catch a touchdown in this game as he caught a touchdown against Miami. This ranking is assuming Noah Fant is out. If Noah Fant plays, I will downgrade Gesicki closer to the bottom of this tier because his routes have been hit or miss. Way too early in the week to know for sure, but monitor practice reports on Noah Fant. If you guys need a tight end, Mike Gesicki probably will go under the radar on waivers tomorrow and you can get him for pretty much nothing. And I do think he is a top 15 play assuming Noah Fant is out for that game.
Moving into Dalton Kincaid, um the zero hurts. I mean, I felt it in the flock league. I almost had to go to Denny's because he dropped zero in my lineup. Thankfully, I held on and I'm out of the toilet bowl. But versus the Philadelphia Eagles, third against tight ends. The Eagles are a very good defense over the middle, but Kincaid has been a top 10 tight end in 60% of his healthy games this year. He plays with Josh Allen. You know, because he plays with Josh Allen, he's always live to catch two touchdowns because he's done it a couple times this season. Now, if you're starting a tight end in this tier, you're probably looking for a ceiling because none of these tight ends are really great options to begin with. So, if you're starting someone in this tier, give me the guy with the highest spike week potential. It's the fantasy championship. So that is why I have Dalton Kincaid ranked as aggressively as I do despite him putting up a literal donut a week ago.
Same goes for Hayden Hurst because while he hasn't been consistent, especially over the last six games, he's only had really one of top 15 tight end production. He plays with Justin Herbert. He's explosive. He can break away long plays. We saw midseason this year, week six through nine, he was capable of making big, big time plays. And the Houston Texans, while they're elite against the run, against the pass, against pretty much everything, they're actually kind of league average against tight ends specifically. And Hurst's role was still above 70% of the routes, even despite only getting a 4% target share last week. So Texans, like I said, they're a lead on defense, against the run, against the pass, against pretty much everything. But they are a little bit average against tight end targets, yards, and touchdowns allowed this season. Maybe it ends up being a matchup that Justin Herbert looks towards and goes to and Hayden Hurst can get some work done to the tune of what he did against Kansas City, for example, like four catches for 61 yards. Maybe he finds the end zone in that game.
Moving into Colby Parkinson, who is my tight end 17 here at the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, as I just mentioned, only two touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season, the fewest in the NFL, and they just shut down Trey McBride of all tight ends. So, this is a horrendous matchup, but Colby Parkinson, four or more targets in five straight games. The issue for Parkinson, and why I was lower on him last week when everybody was [ __ ] their pants over him, is it's a tight end platoon. They use Terrance Ferguson, who's caught a touchdown and almost caught a second one yesterday, uh, uh, last Thursday night. And they also will, you know, sprinkle in Davis Allen. Tyler Higbee had his practice window opened up last week before the game. It's possible he's back for this week. If you're starting Colby Parkinson, your only hope is that he catches a touchdown because this implied total of 28.5, pretty good chance that you do see him catch a touchdown, especially with Davante Adams probably out for this game. It's just that he doesn't have a solidified role. You're hoping that an average to below average player in the NFL, catches a touchdown because he plays with Matthew Stafford who throws two touchdowns or more in every game but two this year.
Moving into AJ Barner, again, probably more of a floor play than a ceiling play. Um, Parkinson probably more of a ceiling play as well because you're just hoping for a two touchdown game. At Carolina, 19th ranked against fantasy tight ends. Carolina is actually quite good against wide receivers and running backs, but they're sneaky bad against tight ends. And in back-to-back games, AJ Barner has 77 and 86% of the team's routes. And we've seen throughout the season against Tampa Bay in week five, against the Rams in week 11, he's got spike week potential. He can catch a touchdown. He can have 40, 50, 60 receiving yards. He can do that. So, in a game where JSN has a bit of a tougher matchup, I wouldn't be surprised if AJ Barner had a nice performance against the Carolina Panthers.
Darren Waller versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be ranked much higher if he had two at Tongaboa starting. But alas, it's Quinn Ewers who didn't look terrible last week, but also didn't look good either. Tampa Bay can't cover tight ends. And trust me, we've allowed 10 touchdowns to them this season. And of course, the infamous Kyle Pitts game two weeks ago that we allowed to the tight end position. And my comp for Kyle Pitts coming out of college was Darren Waller. So, ironically, he's getting uh this defense is getting the real thing with a 26 and 28% targets per route the last two games. I would love to rank Darren Waller higher than this. I just don't trust Quinn Ewers. Championship. So, if you got real big balls and you want to throw Darren Waller out there for the ceiling, you definitely could. He could catch two touchdowns in this game. I'm just a little bit worried about trusting that offense, that quarterback play, uh knowing that Todd Bowles is going to, you know, send blitzes and all that kind of stuff. and it's probably going to confuse the [ __ ] out of Ewers and he could pass for 100 yards and Darren Waller could be terrible.
Um, Travis Kelce, big-time fall from grace here. The Denver Broncos are only 21st against tight end, so they're actually not that great of a defense against this position. But if Kelce gets there, it's a floor play. He gets there four catches for 50 yards. Maybe he finds the end zone, but I doubt it. Even though he's gotten 6.4 targets per game this season, we saw last week against the Tennessee Titans, which was a pretty good matchup, he scored 1.6 points. Why? Because even with McHugh for most of that game, who won't be playing in this one, we're going to have some human being named Chris Oladokun at quarterback. Um, even in that offense, he couldn't they couldn't do anything. They couldn't move the ball consistently. They couldn't generate first downs. This is the Denver Broncos defense. You think they're going to generate first downs against the Denver Broncos defense? I don't. The only way Travis Kelce gets there from a fantasy perspective is they're throwing the ball like crazy and he catches six passes or something like that. So, in PPR leagues and tight end premium leagues, maybe you want to put him up higher than this. I just don't want to put my fantasy championship on the line for Thursday night. It's also a Thursday game, which we absolutely hate to see in the fantasy championship with Chris Oladokun playing quarterback. Like, I just don't I don't trust it at all.
So, u moving into the next tier of tight ends. I'm just going to quickly rattle off who has good and bad matchups here because I don't think anybody should have to play these guys. But if for whatever reason you're dumpster diving because George Kittle gets ruled out or something like that. Again, you should be able to pick up uh Darren Waller, AJ Barner, Colby Parkinson, somebody in the tier ahead, Mike Gesicki as well. Um, but if for whatever reason those guys are all rostered or you want to, you know, feel good about some of these guys, Theo Johnson, um, not a very good matchup for him against the fourth ranked Las Vegas Raiders. Cole Turner, very good matchup against the 30th ranked Dolphins, but very crowded receiving corps with the four receivers there and Bucky Irving and so on. Um, T.J. Hockenson, pretty good matchup for him against the Detroit Lions. Revenge game for him. It's about a league average matchup. Evan Engram, sixth rated, Kansas City Chiefs, tough matchup. Andrews, 10th rated, Green Bay Packers, tough matchup. and Chuba Hubbard, 13th rated New Orleans Saints, tough matchup. And then those are the remaining tight ends. Again, I can't imagine anybody's got to start somebody like this. But just to show them, just to let you know who's available at the bottom of the tier list there.
So, appreciate you guys for tuning in. Leave a like if you enjoyed. Subscribe to the channel if you guys are new around here. Let me know down below any of your tight end questions. Again, refrain from asking questions that are simple answered in the tier list. Should I start Hunter Henry or Dalton Kincaid? Well, Hunter Henry is ranked higher, so you should start Hunter Henry. I do these on a one-on-one basis. Who should I start between these two players? That is how I do my rankings. I'm not worried about winning a rankings contest by any means. I'm thinking about who would I start if I had one fantasy league and this was the decision I make. That is how I make every rankings decision in these tier list videos. So, let me know down below what questions you have. If they're a little bit more nuanced, maybe you need ceiling. Maybe you're an underdog. Maybe you had somebody, you know, later in the week you guys are watching this on Friday or Saturday. Maybe you had somebody perform poorly on Thursday or something and you need the ceiling for that reason. Let me know down below in the comments.
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