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104

مصطفى زهير25:17

Transcription

So yes, hello everyone. Welcome to our first live stream after the US elections. There's a few things that I can promise to you, right? I promise you that you don't know how good you are and you're about to realize how good you actually are because the market conditions that you have been trading within for the past I'd say three or so months right there's there are a few of you have been doing very well, few of you it's been hard but don't worry it's about to get really easy, right? As you guys can see, right? And you in your charts, right? Everything that happened, even, you know, every move that took place in the marketplace was a result of what? A crap in correlation. That's that's the main thing that we've been focusing on. Why is that? Is that the only thing that's there? No. But that is the base of everything here, right? Without a crippling correlation, you do nothing. Without a cracking correlation, you're on the sidelines, right? That's that's basically what it is.

It's not hard to know what price is going to do. It's not hard to have an idea of what price is going to do. I think it's better that I say it that way. It's extremely easy, right? If you look, you know, within the charts and you know, obviously there were some times when there were, you know, someone here right within the group that was just spreading the information like wildfire, which is why I believe like 3 months ago, we had to tone down a bit. But, you know, we're back and we're better. And obviously most of you guys are, you know, at your peak. Well, I wouldn't say at your peak, but at your peak, you know, for the time that you've been within this group because you have so much information. Most of you guys are doing well. Most of you guys are, you know, still passing your challenges, having successful trades even when you're you're not you're not supposed to be trading, which I don't have a problem with, right? It's it's you. Whatever you want to do, you do. But you want to trade in the Asian session, you can. You want to trade during election or you want to trade during a non-farm payroll, your risk. If you can, go for it, right? But the worst thing that can happen is that you learn a lesson. If you realize that they don't say you lose a trade or you blow your account, you just learn a lesson, which nothing is wrong with, right? You can bounce up on it from anything at all. So just don't fear to be wrong. Don't fear to make mistakes. Make them. Could have made them early.

So yes, price is about to get really, really clean. It's already clean in my opinion. It was clean before, right? Most of our analysis has, you know, come to fruition literally like the effects triad, the forex. No, the FX triad, which is the forex market triad, the futures market triad, and the Bitcoin or I say the crypto duel. What is that? Just comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum, right? So everything that we expected to happen happened. There was nothing that was off. We expected the S&P 500 and the Euro to literally just rip in separate directions, right? And you have to pay attention to everything that I say, right? There's nothing that is just, you know, it's something that should go over your head. Even if if I just point to this high, if I just rec if I just speak because I'm the type of person that, you know, I don't get overly excited even though most times I know it's going to happen cuz you guys know, right? It's not boring or anything, but you guys know I will not be overexcited. It will even when it happens sometimes I don't even pay attention to it, right? Because this is something that you must expect. This is something that we always do. That's what we do here, right? It's we we don't play around here, right? We understand that price is not random. We know that. We understand what should happen before price reverses. We understand what will validate a reversal within price action. It's not hard. You all know that if you're not making money, it's time to do so. You know, it's time to pay the trading rules off, right? And begin to actually trade. Leave the demo account alone if you know you can just start with a small account, very smaller account, right? Or just buy a challenge, you know, or prop firm or whatnot. Test yourself. Most some of you here, the only thing that's holding you back is yourself, right? That's the only thing. So again, the only thing that's holding you back is yourself. I'm telling you, most you have you're a great analyst, but you just lack, you know, the ability to control yourself. You just lack your, you know, risk management skills, and you need to focus on those things. It's not just about technical analysis, right? There's other things to it.

That being said, looking at the economic calendar, you can see that tomorrow, which is Thursday, we have FOMC, which comes 2 days after the US president was elected, which is Donald Trump, which is something that we've been talking about this since 2002, before we had, you know, this mentorship right here. Anyways, let's go and we will be looking at the FX triad. Not 2002, Daniel. 2022. Sorry, sometimes my accent is I don't know.

Anyways, here you guys can see a, you know, example of how easy it is. Like and this is the reason why I have been using this analysis for, you know, the past month or months. This is literally what it is. And remember what I have always said, the higher the the higher the time frame cycle, you know, where the sequential S&P occurs within, the more price is bound to adhere to that sequential. As here you can see we have sequences in between two separate years. Price has been extremely bullish. Like there has barely been any pullbacks for the US dollar. It and it does not matter what anything else does. It does not matter what the futures triad does, because right now we have, you know, a decoupling occurring between the futures triad and the FX triad. Why is this happening? Obviously, if you guys have been listening, that is what that's a sign that we're about to get clean markets. We're about to get volatility. Price is going to consolidate for a bit, and then you'll have manipulation. You'll have sequence SMT. You'll have your precision point. You'll have your SMT fill. So here it's nothing hard to understand, right? We have sequential MT here, price became bullish. We had sequential here, price became bearish, right? We were not worried when price was right here. When price was going up right here, we definitely were not was not worried right here. Price traded above this line, and we expected the British pound of the lab just as how it is right now back here, my friends. So this was the result so far. This is the result so far, you know, for the elections, right? We had the elections, right? And some people, you know, believe that price is random. We don't believe that price is random. Here we have sequential SMT, right? Which falls under Dublin theory. So we have SMT between up the October and November, right? Also, we look at the smaller sequential SMT here and the other things that, you know, gave rise to this expansion. So the first thing that we expected was what? Price to drop. When did we say we would expect price to rally higher? When or under which conditions? If we had sequence here. Here you can see that we have sequential which price gravitated towards. Why did price gravitated gravitate toward this high? These highs? Why? Tell me why. The magneto effect. You know about this, right? So whenever you have and you already know this, right? Whenever you have a sequence which is larger, right? Means there's more candles between this sequence of SMT than this one. There will be a fast reversal, especially when you have a precision sync right during the week. What did I say? Even when I I have been saying that you shouldn't be doing anything, right? We still was on the right track, right? I came when I believe Tuesday made what was it? When Monday made a lot of the week, I think I commented on Tuesday said and basically said that the low of the week was in before elections. Then what happened? Price followed suit. The low of the week was not touched. It was not challenged at all. Price didn't even come just pull back or anything. It just continued higher for all-time highs.

So here, this model, what do you use? Because this is a model in itself. It's just that I'm not going to just, you know, write it down and just give it to you like that. You must understand why it works and you must see it working, and I have to speak about it. Speak about the movement of price beforehand, or else I can't talk about it. And if I'm wrong, I'll wait the next time because if I am wrong, most of the times you for some reason most of you will lose hope, which is why I have to make sure that I am cherrypicking, you know, the movement beforehand. Of course, it's not it's not easy. Of course, it's not easy. But this is what I have to do, right? So, first of all, everything here is is specific, right? Sequential empty between months, which mean it could be between January and February, February and March, and so on, right? You need the daily time frame. So remember we talked about sequential syntary theory, which means the quarterly cycles, then you have price even in your favor, even more. But in my opinion, you don't need more than three things, which is, you know, the daily time frame, sequence between the months of the year, or at or and a precision point, daily precision point here. You guys can clearly see, and I believe that it was Tuesday. I am not wrong. I'll check to make sure that I am not. Let me see. So, it wasn't Tuesday. It was yesterday. Yeah, it was yesterday before election was oh yesterday was Tuesday. Oh my god. Sorry about that. So yes, it was Tuesday when we expected price to continue high. We called the low. We said the low of the week was in due to the fact that we had sequential SMT here, right? There's two types of sequential SMT here, right? We have sequential SMT between between the previous year. You have the previous month's quarter, right? And here you have current month's quarter. Also, we have sequence MT doubling, not doubling, hidden sequence MT, right? Between Friday and Monday here as well. You see this white bar to go here. We will not look at that. We'll be focused on the quarters, right? Yes. Day doesn't know the day of the week. It's just that thing, right? Dad's life. Yeah. Barely getting to sleep. You're going to be working at the same time and whatever. So, you have here same thing as the E-mini S&P for the Dow. Price took this low out aggressively, rallied higher. Remember we talked about the low the week before before this expansion occurred, before president was elected, before the time was run through. It's not a coincidence, right? It's not a mistake that we had sequential certainty right before this occurred, right? It's not. The only reason why it may be hard sometimes unless you get the low here to be trading within this area is that is this price, right? They will fluctuate, right? If you're trading CFDs. So here you can see that we had SMT fill as well, and then just price expanded, expanded higher. You have to pay attention to these symmetrical highs right here, right? So, there's two ways that you will have consolidation, manipulation, expansion, aggressive expansion, right? Well, one of the expansions will be more aggressive, and that's this one where you have a crippling correlation here at the low, could be at the high, but for now, we're just focusing on this leg of price action, right? Correlation between the low, none of the highs. Right here, right? So, here symmetrical price action, here unsymmetrical price action, you'll see price expand a lot. But if this was just the just a SMT here and a SMT here, which would produce the magneto effect, we wouldn't get a movement like this, right? So yes, price is prone to grab liquidity above or below SMT lows or highs and, you know, reverse. But whenever you have these types of highs which are symmetrical, you usually get price just blow right through. Usually.

Here you guys can see Bitcoin, you know, against Ethereum. Price did exactly what we expected it to do, which was take all-time highs ever since the formation of this candle. We've been talking about this right here, right? Again, you can see we have a curtain correlation between this high and this high right here. Same thing here. Ethereum failed to take this high. Bitcoin to this high. It took the all-time high again. Ethereum failed to do so. What does that tell us? It tells us that there is an underlying weakness within the crypto market. So people are looking at Bitcoin and they expect some Bitcoin to just be pulling everything up, but that's not how it goes, right? For the crypto market to just remain bullish. And remember, we're not being a bear. We're not being a bull or anything right now. We're just using the things that we know about to give us a bias in regards to price action, right? We talked about price taking the time. We were not overly excited about it, as you should not you shouldn't be in regards to any thing, you know, in regards to the marketplace. Should always be calm and collective. Most of the times you shouldn't really care that much, right? Anyways, so price was dropped this high. Still, we have Ethereum far very far away from this high, which was a failure swing that was going forward. This high right here. It's still below the 3% of this range, which gives us a reason to expect price to just play around and return back within this range here, right? So you could see price push a bit higher, then return back within the range based off of here. We have the correcting correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum. So here, if you guys can remember this specific f gap and this precision swing point that we talked about, right? Which was the beginning of this movement right here. We expected higher practice. We expected this side to be taken out along with this one and all-time high. Right here is a pattern which, you know, it's a very technical entry pattern that most would not be able to understand, right? So here, what do we have here? We have first of all, we had SMT here. Was it sequential? No, it wasn't. Doesn't need to be. If you have this confirmation afterwards, right? So this pattern right here is a confirmation pattern for SMTs that were not sequential. So here we had SMT, right? So price failed to break below this low right here. Here it did. So remember, we were already bullish, right? We and not specifically bullish on anything else but Bitcoin, right? This right here is just a tiny move, right? In comparison to where it's currently at. So here price took this low out after which we had this gap form and price broke above this high here. Price took this low out as it did here. Failed to break above this high, close within this gap here. Price did not come here. So there are two things that are here, the main two things, right? And of course, it came after the most important thing, which is the SMT. So we have SMT, and then we have a SMT market structure shift, which followed by what? Followed by a SMT fill. Do you understand? So let's go over it. SMT, SMT shift, SMT fill, and expansion. So, it's within these types of, you know, conditions where you would see an asset fail to break below the breaker, right? When they broke above the breaker. So this right here is what an actual, you know, what ICT would call a breaker, you know, if it continuously worked the way he thought it right. So this is high probability, of course. So right here. So again, SMT shift. What is that? Here price broke above this high. Here it did not break above this high. Price traded back within this gap. The gap was filled. Here price did not trade back within this gap. Immediately after, we got price to expand.

So I hope that you found this useful and yes, that is a specific sequence. Let's say it again. And if you realize, there's usually three main things that you should look for. And if you realize again, we don't really talk about higher time frame gaps that much, which of course you can use those things for, you know, to better your analysis. But right now, we're just looking at things based off of off of of time since you already know those things, right? It's very obvious if you have sequential symmetry within a higher time frame gap, you should expect reversal. But here we're looking at the times when we don't have that, right? Using the analysis that we already talked about before, we expected the price to go higher. It did. So now we're looking at why it did so. So I believe that this was a successful stream. I hope that you guys, you know, find found this useful. Until the next time, study well and good luck and good trading. Ciao.