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If the Fed raises interest rates, that's the first blow. The second blow is when oil prices rise further. When the stock market crashes, Trump will definitely be in trouble, because his supporters, and those of the Republican party, are all billionaires. One card is to use military force, another card is to blockade. And when they bomb, they will bomb with small nuclear warheads. Prepare 100 refueling planes, send 150 medical personnel to be ready in Germany. This is like two sides are holding their breath underwater, who can hold it longer? This is the general Fed system in the market. This section, Maxfli con >> Fuel cost management system with no hidden fees and benefits [music] and Max Point >> There's a tendency for the Fed to raise interest rates >> Uh >> Uh, if the Fed raises interest rates, it's like killing frogs. Don't think about how much oil prices will rise, because everything will rise first. This means that the trend of oil prices rising is in a trend, it will keep rising. Uh, the reason is that supply is insufficient. And the Fed itself might hold everything back by raising interest rates by 0.25, 25. Once it rises, Trump will be bleeding to death. So, it's thought that there might need to be negotiations between uh Trump and Iran as soon as possible. Uh, or not, I'm not sure. Professor, please analyze a bit more precisely, if oil prices go up, how much will it be considered a deadline for Trump? >> It's difficult to say. But let's assume this. Let's assume the Fed raises interest rates at the end of this month. And it turns out that right now, the thing that is causing a lot of problems for the stock market in America is AI. Simply put, Mr. Thani, when there's a bubble and it bursts, in Korea, it was the Memory Ship, right? But we are looking ahead, the cost of producing AI computer chips is currently rising. >> Yes. >> Because helium gas, which is necessary, comes out of the helium mine, 30% of the world's supply. >> Uh. >> Right? Uh, and now it's gone, right? Therefore, the overall cost will definitely increase. But the problem now is this. America's AI development uses a model, I playfully call it the Lord of the Rings model. It's like this: if we watch the movie, Lord of the Rings, it says there are many rings. >> Many rings in the world of uh. But there is only one ring, One ring to rule them all. This ring is special, and it's the ring that will win all other rings. America's model means that in AI, uh, angels, uh, six, uh, who is good, who survives. Whoever is good will be the ring that controls all, wins all the rest. It's difficult, so it becomes a competition. China's model is a different story. China's model is to distribute AI usage as much as possible. Therefore, instead of a closed model, it's an open model. Make the cost cheap because they want to integrate AI into all levels of life, especially in reducing labor costs. Therefore, they will need to accelerate the development of humanoid robots, similar to humans, or maybe just arms, or maybe just something to work instead of humans. These, in each, in each robot's brain, need to have AI to be able to control things. Therefore, China's model emphasizes distribution, emphasizes full utilization. America's model emphasizes making money. So it becomes one rules them all. Currently, many companies that used to invest in building data centers, in the past, Mr. Thani, what did free cash flow mean? The company's profit, let's say a company like Meta, has this much profit. They use maybe half of it to build data centers. Then more and more. Currently, the money used for data centers is more than free cash flow. >> Uh. >> It [clears throat] so they have to get money from investors to set up, what do they call it, SPVs, Special Purpose Vehicles, which is to set up a fund to [clears throat] raise funds. All of this raises the question: you set up a fund and let it be the owner, the investor in the data center, and I, as an angel investor, sign a lease. But if you go bankrupt, what if I don't use it? Then we sue. Is this like hiding numbers, like in the past? This is still being debated. Therefore, the stock market has hidden vulnerabilities. If the first blow comes, the Fed raises interest rates, the second blow is oil prices rising further. Oh my, when the stock market crashes, Trump will definitely be in trouble, because his supporters, and those of the Republican party, are all billionaires. >> Professor, what you're saying is like the sky is falling, the earth is collapsing [laughter]. Let's look at it simply, Professor, so that all viewers can understand easily. Currently, oil prices tend to rise significantly, 120, 130, 140, 150. If this is not stopped, meaning if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, everything will collapse. But if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, everything the professor said might be okay, right? >> Of course. If an agreement is reached, everything will ease, and the war premium will disappear immediately. But what needs to be agreed upon, I am confident, because looking at the list from Iran, they have issued a list. They say first of all, they need to clearly agree that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. >> Uh [clears throat]. >> Ah, and secondly, after that, the money you have frozen, which currently, according to the numbers, is a total of 24 billion dollars. >> Yes. >> Must be released first. >> Uh. >> This is the demand list. And after that, then we can talk about the uranium, etc. But beyond that, this negotiation, even though America is trying to speed things up, there are other issues that interfere. >> Uh. >> The issue of Israel, right? Netanyahu is rushing to meet uh Trump. I think Netanyahu can see that Iran will take this opportunity to pressure Israel regarding Lebanon, regarding Palestine. [clears throat] something. >> Uh. >> Another thing is the Houthi negotiation. >> Uh. >> Uh, so, it's agreed that the Houthis, to get them to stop, there needs to be payment, what benefits will they get, how will it work? Oh my, all of this, uh, they will pressure hard. And if Trump wants to negotiate, if Trump really wants to compromise, oil prices must rise significantly. >> So if they don't negotiate, they will go all out next week, bomb again for another 5 days, what will they do? >> This, honestly, I thought they would bomb over the weekend. I waited for Friday, but no, not on Friday, I was confused. Then on Saturday night, hey, still no, I was confused. Finally, they stopped. I went to check, and there was news that the Chief of Staff, the highest military commander who controls the military and Trump, said not to do it. >> Uh. >> He said that the Patriot missiles, which are supposed to intercept Iran's missiles, are not enough. >> Uh. >> Here, Mr. Thani, you need to understand what happened. >> It's like this [clears throat]. Uh, the equipment and personnel of the United States were originally in US bases in Arab countries near Kuwait and Bahrain. >> Uh, UAE, etc., nearby, right? >> Uh. >> When they are nearby, it becomes easy for Iran to reach them. So they moved to the first step, moved to Jordan. >> Uh. >> It turned out that Iran followed and bombed Jordan. >> Uh-huh. >> Currently, they have moved and are concentrated where, do you know? >> Uh. >> In Israel. >> Uh. >> Concentrated in Israel. Someone explained it like this, Mr. Thani. Suppose America decides to come and bomb. They will have to make many sorties. >> Because of the nature of bombing, they prepare, they prepare about 100 refueling planes, take off, and uh, there was news about sending military medical teams, uh, including nurses, to be ready in Germany, 150 people. And there are planes modified to carry the sick, to fly across. They are ready. The military, I think they can see it. >> Uh. >> Suppose the planes, uh, start to take off, and Iran won't have difficulty seeing it. When the planes start to take off, say 20%, 30%, then just send missiles to Israel, with full force, then the remaining planes that haven't taken off yet will be finished. But suppose if they send missiles, it takes time. Suppose they take off in time, where will they land? >> Uh [laughter]. >> When the land is finished, they will probably have to speak in Turkish and ask to land in Turkey, or ask to land somewhere else. It's not easy to land. They might have to fly all the way to Germany or back to England or something. >> When they go, the damage, the chance of damage is high. >> Because if they go and are seen as defeated, or if there is damage to the point of losing popularity, it's high. >> Oh, I understand. So the Chief of Staff is saying that if they fight, it will only be destruction, so why fight? It's better to stop now, it's safer. But what they cannot accept is losing. That's what the professor said earlier. And they will retreat, they will not lose. I, I, it's like this. Uh, uh, originally, when the news came out that the Chief of Staff said not to fight, and in the end Trump agreed to stop, I was confused. It's embarrassing. >> Embarrassing, yes. >> Oh my, they prepared like this, and [clears throat] didn't they talk it out first? >> It should be, if they were going to break, they should have broken from the beginning. This shows that Trump's management style is purely self-centered. Therefore, this matter has been embarrassing for a long time. They have to cover it up by saying that all of this is to give diplomacy another chance. Uh, uh, to come out as a hero, as a hero. >> But [clears throat] going like this, currently, I see that since the military has stopped it, Trump will >> This means Trump's cards, he has 2 cards. >> Uh. >> One card is to use military force, another card is to blockade. >> [clears throat]. >> Uh. >> And originally, I thought, I guessed, that he would use military force. And when they bomb, they will bomb Iran's nuclear development facilities, whether it's Natanz or Fordow, to at least close the entrance tunnels. And then they will announce that from now on, there will be no more negotiations about uranium, because it's already buried. It's like a pyramid, buried for another 2,000 years. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, Israel itself, the media has come out and said that if they are going to bury it like this in the mountain, the United States should use small bombs, not large bombs like Bunker Buster, but small nuclear Bunker Busters. >> Uh. >> Oh my, in this situation, if Trump uses this, it will be a violation, a violation of international law, and everything will be chaotic. Therefore, currently, if we look at this, his card for using force is now exhausted. It's gone. There's only one left, which is blockade. I don't see any other cards. Blockade, and the use of economic weapons, which is to pressure through sanctions, through payment systems, freezing money, etc. That's it. Keep it for as long as possible. That's all that's left. But who, right now, these two sides are holding their breath underwater. Who can hold it longer? 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