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Hello, hello, Mr. Seng, hello, Mr. Seng. >> Hello, Mr. Tha, ladies and gentlemen. >> Lieutenant General Dr. Pongsan Odomchompoo, he is an expert in political science. What I would like Mr. Seng to analyze today is a simple principle: will Iran win against America or not? Many people say there are angles where one wins and the other wins, but what is certain is that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet opened. I will ask Mr. Seng directly: regarding the Strait of Hormuz, in the future, will Iran control and manage it without the United States being able to do anything at all? This is the point. Please proceed. >> Well, so far, the fact that it has been prolonged is actually a decision by Trump. Trump did not want to attack further, so he extended the time for negotiations, which Trump might have misunderstood. I still wonder why he didn't attack and finish it quickly. Because the real power lies with the IRGC, it's the military faction, the military faction, and they have taken all the power. And then they don't talk, they don't understand politics, they don't understand the country's laws, they don't understand anything except using force. And they found that the Singaporean ship that was said to be open was still shot at, even though it was agreed to be open, and it was shot. Therefore, there is no trust that it will be possible. They don't understand the rules, they only know how to use force. When that is the case, the method to deal with those who favor the use of force must be to use superior force, and nothing else, until they surrender, then we can talk. And by that point, there might be a political faction, perhaps a president, who comes in to replace the military, or the military might agree to withdraw and let the civilian faction come in to talk. And then all parties will agree. Everyone in Iran wants to talk. Only the IRGC, which coincidentally has weapons and power, is the reason it hasn't ended. And if we look further at what will happen to the Strait of Hormuz, as far as I know, Europe will have to open it out of necessity. Because the United States might help, but Europe needs it because it's a big issue. Japan, South Korea, and others cannot stand by. It is necessary to use force to open it. And if the Strait of Hormuz is closed by any country, it will violate the laws of the sea regarding freedom of navigation, or what is called an international strait. This means that the strait, excuse me, excuse me, an international strait is an international strait. Everyone must be able to enter and use it freely without regard to who has authority over it. So, it will be a big problem for the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Lombok, and so on, all the way to the South China Sea. It will be a very big problem for China's supply line. It will be a problem. If this is accepted, the whole world will probably not accept it. Therefore, we have to see what Trump will do. Trump is still trying to negotiate, perhaps too much. I still say that if this matter is to be truly resolved, the IRGC must be pressured alone, making the IRGC as weak as possible, and then letting the civilian faction of Iran come to talk with the United States. In the end, all parties will declare victory. Both Iran and the United States will declare victory. But the United States is ready to give everything, including nuclear power, to the fullest. But the IRGC still refuses to stop. So it's difficult to talk. In the end, it will be settled that the United States will withdraw, and the IRGC will be depleted, and Iran will maintain its existing state and continue. But there was a statement by Trump a few days ago that he is looking at regime change. He didn't think like that before, but now he thinks about changing the regime. It's difficult to talk. Therefore, regime change has two possibilities: either it is destroyed until it is exhausted, or Iran quickly mitigates the damage by dealing with it themselves, telling them to withdraw and letting a new faction come forward to deal with the United States. It will end like this. And it must be opened, it cannot be delayed. If it is delayed, Europe will get involved, and it will be even worse. >> Speaking of opening and closing the Strait of Hormuz, it might be something we cannot predict in the future. But currently, Iran still has authority over the strait, and the United States tends to withdraw. This makes the world unstable. However, regardless, oil prices are falling. Oil is a key factor that Donald Trump wants. He wants oil prices to fall. Therefore, in the future, if the Strait of Hormuz is liberalized, oil prices will continue to fall. This is Donald Trump's desire. We have to wait and see for the next 60 days to see if it will continue like this or if there will be more arguments. We have to wait and see the situation. I'd like to ask Mr. Seng about this for a moment. Is Israel a key variable that will cause the United States to return or not return? Will the United States give up? >> Currently, the objectives of these two countries are different. Israel and the United States, with Trump, Trump wants oil. And we observe that even though the Strait of Hormuz incident occurred, world oil prices have fallen. This means there is oil, excess oil, as we have discussed on Mr. Thani's program, coming from Venezuela. The sellers have changed. Even if there is an earthquake, the United States will provide full assistance. >> There might be some difficulties, but fundamentally, the United States will supply oil to the world. China has also agreed to buy oil through the United States. Therefore, it will not be greatly affected. But if it can be opened, it will allow the United States to control oil more. Control means agreeing with Iran on how to lift sanctions and letting the United States manage the oil. Everything will be agreed upon in these 60 days. If oil becomes available, it will be another condition for the United States to discuss with China regarding rare earth minerals. They will have to agree on prices. The world will have two things now: oil and new resources, rare earths. They will have to agree on new global prices that are win-win for both. Otherwise, the United States will flood the market with oil, causing problems for Chinese electric vehicle companies, and the Chinese government will have to bail them out. This will cause internal economic problems, adding to external factors that pressure China to have internal problems. Therefore, China must understand that it must mitigate the damage. Because if the United States gets oil from Iran, it will be very difficult for China to negotiate. They will have to agree on how the United States will benefit, so that both sides can coexist. In reality, the United States and China cannot fight, because both have intertwined interests. They are both buyers and sellers in the world. The rest are just supporting actors. If the buyers and sellers quarrel, neither can survive. Therefore, I believe that in the end, it will not reach a point of conflict. It's just that some matters require strategic planning, such as Taiwan or rare earths. These are strategic moves by both sides. >> Listening to Mr. Seng, the strategic competition between China and the United States involves economic competition, security competition, even oil competition, rare earth competition, everything is a competition. Therefore, China and the United States should compromise and find a good solution for regional security in our Indo-Pacific region. Recently, America has renamed it the Pacific, returning to the original name. So, I don't know what the real signal from the United States is. What do they really want in the Indo-Pacific? As we are in ASEAN, we think about the Indo-Pacific region where we live. How will the conflict here affect Thailand? And do you think the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific has changed according to its name? Please proceed. >> In fact, overall, they are blocking China, starting from India, going up to Vietnam, then to Japan, South Korea. And we found that Japan and South Korea have signed more and more agreements on military technology. They will come to replace the United States. Therefore, with these collaborations, it is a desire to block China. I still think that from Trump's perspective, perhaps he considers the previous talks with Xi Jinping as acceptable, and may reduce the aggression. And there are some agreements, such as China agreeing to buy oil from the United States. This is an example of compromise from both sides. Some people even say China has won, Xi Jinping has achieved victory. Whatever it is, the main players who create issues in the world are the blocs of the United States and China. The United States itself does not want to block anyone. Trump's policy is to withdraw troops, mostly. Therefore, it will be quite weakened. They don't want to get involved much, but they are pushing allies like Japan to prepare more and more. And they are ready to use force against China more. That is a dynamic that has changed. If you ask about the Indo-Pacific, it hasn't changed much. It might be that they are looking only at the East, only at the Pacific, not including the Indian Ocean. If the Indian Ocean is not included, it's a different approach, a different concept. But India and China will never get along anyway. There are border disputes and other issues. India is accumulating forces, such as the Gurkhas, whom they have recruited from the United Kingdom, and re-hired them in India, ready to march into the mountains. All these things are preparations. Preparation does not mean actual war, but it is a balance. Both sides are making strategic moves. If you ask if it will affect Thailand, I think China is being more cautious in showing aggression. It should be a little lighter. After what has happened, China has not shown signs of fighting each other. We saw President Xi taking him to see trees. Trees can grow together. Trees on both sides. It's an attempt to open the way to say that China is ready to cooperate with the United States. Trump is happy with that. When he is happy, it will ease. Unless there are special cases. But I see that it seems to be easing. However, strategic moves must be made. For example, the United States preparing for Taiwan or other matters, they do it internally. And the Ukraine issue is also there, helping Taiwan and Japan with interception and other matters. It's a system. Each side makes its moves as much as it can, just to be cautious. They might not fight. We see accumulations, but they might not fight. But regardless, overall, I still believe it has eased considerably. It's just that Trump will focus on the economy. I think if he wants to fight China, he won't use force. He will use the economy. Lowering oil prices drastically will hit China harder than doing anything else. And China might rethink. Instead of invading Taiwan, why not buy the Kuomintang? Give them a lot of money. They might win someday. After winning, they can unify the country. It's simpler. And now, they are doing it. It's a drone ship. Drone technology is Ukrainian. Japan has developed it into a larger drone ship than Ukraine's. And there are about 1,320 of them. They will produce them to block the strait between Taiwan and China. How much does one cost now? It's different from a ship that costs about 2, 30,000. It's 500,000. 500,000 dollars. And a warship costs 1 billion dollars. That's a difference of about 2,000 times. And how many Chinese ships are there? Suppose they use 1,000, 120 drone ships. If they use 10 drones per warship, they can destroy 132 warships. China will have nothing left either. If they send ships to sail, it will take 3 hours. Even though it's not far, only over 100 kilometers, it will take about 2, about 3 hours to reach the shore. Now they are deploying them everywhere. How can they fight? It's like a mass murder in the strait area of Taiwan. I believe this method is a deterrent, making China give up the idea of using force. When China gives up the idea of using force, it becomes a political matter, and it's over. Then, whoever wins the political battle, that's how it goes. It's still a peaceful approach, not a forceful one. >> That's interesting. If underwater drones can be done, I think if they are deployed in the Strait of Hormuz, even a hundred of them, they probably won't turn back. But I don't think it will be successful yet. Maybe it's a slow project, or is it still a project? It's not being used yet. Because it's a drone ship, it's an attack ship. >> Yes. >> Iran is laying mines defensively. So they need to use sweeping ships. But drone ships, attack ships, are aimed at destroying warships. >> The objective is different. >> So, the Strait of Hormuz is not guarded by warships. They use small speedboats. >> And if you compare them, it's not possible. The drone ships are even bigger. Bigger than Iran's speedboats. It's not worth it. Each move made, as Mr. Seng said, the Taiwan move, the Iran move. The move that is most interesting for Thailand is the Cambodia move that Xi Jinping has already made. It's about bringing Hun Sen, Hun Manet, and others to talk. They have agreed that, as China is backing them, what exactly does China want? They might have talked about it in Beijing. But what I want to know is what Thailand thinks about the Cambodia move being in China's hands, and what will be the impact on Thailand? >> On that side, they are making their moves. And I recommend to the government, if you don't know what to do, look at Cambodia and imitate them. Just copy them. >> They have visited everywhere, France, the United States, Germany, China. They have met them. >> If we don't want a third clash, and Mr. Hun Sen says he will cede territory. >> If he cedes territory, there must be a clash. >> Therefore, what we need to do is to make Cambodia not want to clash. >> Not want to use force, not want to provoke us into a rash reaction. And not let the soldiers and the people on the border feel abandoned and hopeless. The government does nothing. They don't help them at all. I still find it strange. You just say whatever they say on the international stage, and you go and defend yourselves on the international stage. It's too defensive. And what they are doing, they are running to Trump. Now, let me list. First, we must say that what needs to be done is to talk about peace. Thailand doesn't talk about it. Cambodia talks about it all the time. We talk about it occasionally. Okay, we have bilateral meetings, we want this and that, a peaceful approach, whatever. But we must be proactive in the peaceful approach. And a tangible peaceful approach on the ground, on the continent, is to draw clear border lines. Can we tell the international community that the dispute is because we don't know where the border is? Each side claims different land. The easiest method is to draw clear border lines. Who does the temple belong to? If it's ours, we take it. If it's split in half, we divide it in half. Or if we take the temple and the land, we negotiate, as we did with Malaysia and the shrine. There are examples. But we are not proactive. Proactive means, for example, last month, we met with Macron. France. We met with Macron to talk about trade and investment. Why don't you bring up the lives and well-being, or the risks to soldiers and civilians in the area, as an important issue? Why do you only focus on the economy? If France, as a permanent member of the Security Council, if any country vetoes Thailand, saying Cambodia should not come, let's stick to the original. Don't come to the United Nations. Then, if there is a clash, let them talk. Cambodia will not dare to use force, because using force will result in wasted soldiers, with no benefit. Right? Now, when we met Macron, we didn't talk about it. The Prime Minister said that if asked about Macron, he would answer about Cambodia. Then he wasn't asked. So he didn't answer. Why didn't you seize the opportunity? But you said, I raised the issue of MU 44. Why didn't you continue? I raised the issue of MU 44 because the line Cambodia drew was not in accordance with maritime law. And we, on our side, are entering the UNCLOS. So I canceled MU 44. Then we will talk. It doesn't need to be canceled. Let's amend MO U 69. It's about using UNCLOS with the same committee, but drawing the line correctly. Then the maritime dispute is resolved. Whoever wants concessions, let them do it. On land, there are disputed lines, red and blue lines. We don't know whose they are. Mr. Hun Sen says they are his. We say they are ours. And when they fought, each side occupied territory. There must be trespassing. They must occupy each other's territory. We don't know whose it is. Let's draw this yellow line. According to the income, it will take no more than 6 months. It will end all issues. Or just the line alone, it will take 2 months. Drawing the line is quick. Like Nong Chan, Nong Yat Keaw, it's about 20 kilometers. It only takes a few days, 2-3 days, and it's over. Then there's walking, not walking. They argue first, and then there's a second clash. If there's no second clash, there will be a line, a yellow line there. As for the sandbar, let's use the data to draw it. Then, if Cambodia doesn't come to see, I will take the issue to the United Nations. I will define it as the border of Thailand, a clear border. Send it to the United Nations, send it to Secretary-General Guterres, send it to the Security Council, let them know. Send it to France, send it to Cambodia. Believe it or not, it doesn't matter. But if you cross this line, I reserve the right to use force. I will consider it a declaration of war against me. I will attack you like India and Pakistan. It's not just a skirmish. And the people are stressed. If we do this, the people on the line, the yellow line, will know they are safe. And the Cambodian people will know they are entering Thai territory in Nong Chan. They will evacuate. Because there is no agreement yet, they will not leave. You have to draw the line to finish it, then they will leave. There are two areas of land dispute. You can measure the land or use private surveys and have the Land Department certify it, then measure it. It's over, no more arguments. We talk about lasting peace. Let's do it this way. If the leaders finish it, just a few days ago, he hugged Putin. Putin is one of the five. So you have to tell Putin too. Can we do it this way? Putin likes to be aggressive. We might not be okay. But at least we said it, right? China also said okay. It's still good that it's bilateral. But their stance in providing support is more towards Cambodia. Because if the naval base is a strategic point for Thailand, China, and the South, if we look at security, China will choose between Thailand and Cambodia. I've always said this. If they choose security, between Thailand and Cambodia, they will choose Cambodia. And then they will take over Thailand economically. They have already taken over economically. What is left? Nowadays. Therefore, they don't need to care about Thailand. They only need the oil pipeline. If they can get the oil pipeline, they can send oil to China. Then they can open operations with Taiwan. They only need that. Whether they get it or not, whether they open it or not, is another matter. But they ask for it first. The oil transport route. Even though the Thai government says there isn't one, I'm waiting for the last day. There will be a pipeline to send it, or it will be transported by train. All of this is what we have to choose. Fortunately, Trump said to adhere to the Kuala Lumpur Declaration. Only one country is left. Who is there? France has passed. We didn't do anything. Russia has passed. We didn't do anything. China, Cambodia has gone. Only the United Kingdom and the United States are left. The United Kingdom probably won't bother with us much. Only the United States is left. Trump spoke about the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, saying we must adhere to it. Shall we go a little further? Let's say that adhering to the Kuala Lumpur Declaration was the first clash, right? Let's say it's very good. Because from that first clash, and with the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, there was a meeting of the JBC, the Border Demarcation Committee, to draw clear border lines. There was an agreement, and it was implemented before the second clash. This is very good. Let's ask Trump to continue to support it. Let's reaffirm the Kuala Lumpur Declaration. If we meet again, we will say the same thing. Adhere to the Kuala Lumpur Declaration. If we talk about peace, based on the approach of drawing border lines together, if we say it even a little bit, there will be no third clash. See? Just a little bit, and it's over. Or do you want Germany? Germany's Krumneg went to talk. Germany said, I am ready to be a fair mediator. Bring it on. Germany likes documents. Let's have a fair mediator to discuss the borders. But I think Trump is the best. Trump has a lot of influence because he was the founder or the initiator of the Kuala Lumpur Declaration. Only one country is left. If the government goes to the United States and doesn't say it again, I consider it over with the government regarding the Thai-Cambodian border. It's over. No need to do anything else. Just wait for the next move. >> Yes, we have to keep following. What will happen on the Thai-Cambodian border? We sincerely hope there will be no war. Mr. Seng, I feel that the world has changed. The war in Ukraine has made people feel that small countries are not at a disadvantage. For example, how has the war in Ukraine become a technological war? The latest I know is that Ukraine has attacked deep into Russian territory, and Russia has suffered greatly. A large number of them have reached Moscow. I don't know how they got in. But I heard that drone technology, tank technology, and robot technology in Ukraine have advanced a lot. I would like to ask Mr. Seng, in this war, over the past 5 years, how has Ukraine developed itself in terms of warfare? Please proceed. >> To begin with, Ukraine received training as small units, like the United States, tactical units. When it comes to warfare, they use rockets, or what are called Javelins, from England and the United States. And they have their own anti-tank missiles called Stugna. This is what we see as theirs. They started by ambushing tanks that were moving in a convoy. They shot the front, the rear, and the middle, and ambushed them for 30-40 kilometers, causing heavy damage to Russia. But Russia was still able to surround them. And in the first week or two, they were about to close in on Kyiv. But it happened to be spring, right? The reservoirs were full, like the rainy season in Thailand. They released water from the dams. It became a small river, not a canal, but a small river, full of water. Russia was also flooded and could not cross. It was in Bucha, the city where they stayed for a long time and brutally treated the Ukrainian people, causing deaths. It was called a massacre in Bucha. But they couldn't kill them. When they couldn't kill them, the other side, the east, could not be 100% surrounded. When it couldn't be surrounded, they finally had to retreat. Because Ukraine started using modified vehicles, pickup trucks, etc., equipped with machine guns to shoot. Russia was shocked and retreated a lot, losing one-third of its territory. It was lost completely. Then, Ukraine started to see how they could fight. They used drones, small drones, agricultural drones like ours. They used the ones with 6 legs, flying and dropping bombs. At first, they hit sometimes, sometimes missed. Then it became fun. And they used Cold War-era technology missiles, modified them into Flamingos, or their own ballistic missiles. Fast forward to last year. They announced that they would have about 1 million drones. And by mid-year, they said they would have 3 million drones, produced domestically, 3 million drones to deal with Russia. That was last year. So now there are a lot. And we found that Russian soldiers themselves, who are bloggers, say that these numbers are inconsistent. One says a Russian soldier has to face about 50 Ukrainian drones, or at least 20. Another says an average of 10-20. Let's say a Russian soldier encounters about 10 small drones. This is one thing. And our agricultural drones are limited to about 5-10 kilometers, no more. But Ukraine has made drones with increasing range for the front lines. While Russian drones, using Iranian technology, can fly far, large drones weighing 2,000 kg. And they also have their own drones, about 1,000 kilometers. They are destructive, but they don't have small drones. So they only have long-range drones and they just crash. But Ukraine has drones flying everywhere, flying along the terrain, going here and there, dropping bombs on tanks, even armored tanks. As a result, Russian armored tanks are not used much. They lose only about 1-2 vehicles per day. They don't try to use them and retreat. They use aircraft to drop glide bombs, bombs we saw in World War II, they are in them, depending on the model. Then they attach wings and drop them. The West has them, but the Russian ones are very large because they focus on destructive power. They are about 3 tons. The West has them, and Ukraine uses them, attaching glide bombs of about one ton. But Ukrainian aircraft cannot reach the border because they are still afraid of Russian aircraft. So, last year, from the beginning of the year to the middle and end of the year, Russia was still pushing Ukraine back. Because they used glide bombs to destroy entire cities. And then Russian forces entered. But in the end, as in Bucha, Ukraine used drones everywhere, surrounding the entire city, cutting off supply lines. And started attacking. Originally, Biden, 2 years ago, prohibited it. Now, in mid-last year, they started not believing it. And they don't believe Trump either, because they feel the United States is not helping anymore. Aid is only 10%, very little. They don't care anymore. They attacked oil refineries, Russian oil production. It dropped by about 700,000 barrels per day, which is not a small amount. 700,000 barrels per day is considered not small, equivalent to the production of a medium-sized country. This caused a severe oil shortage in the country. When there was an oil shortage, Ukraine used long-range drones. Now, on the front lines, from about 40 kilometers, it has moved to 150 kilometers. 40 kilometers is the range of short-range artillery and mortars. 70 kilometers is the range of multiple rocket launchers. Now they can reach 150 kilometers, covering the range of long-range multiple rocket launchers and everything else. They also have medium-range and long-range drones. Long-range drones can reach up to 3,000 kilometers. In the second year, 2023, Ukraine said they would modify Cold War-era missiles. They said they could make them up to 2,000 kilometers. Many people laughed and said, "Is that possible? Are you lying?" Now you've encountered it. Russia can fly up to 3,000 kilometers. At first, it was over 1,000 kilometers, which was impressive. Then 2,000 kilometers, now up to 3,000 kilometers. So it's about half of Russia. Moscow is about 500-600 kilometers away, not far. It's all within Ukraine's destructive range. Now Ukraine is playing a trick, saying they will destroy Moscow. Putin is scared and has moved all air defense systems to Moscow. This has left Crimea, the area they occupied, where they held referendums and occupied it, empty. Ukraine has been destroying air defense systems and military bases in Crimea all the time. And they have driven away the ships in Crimea, in Sevastopol, to Russia using drone ships, right? And in the front-line combat area, small Ukrainian units are using robots, or what we call ground drones. These are radio-controlled drones equipped with machine guns. They go in and shoot with machine guns, probably .300 caliber, if I remember correctly. .50 caliber might be too large. .300 caliber is about this size. They go in and shoot at the Russians. The Russians can't fight. They have both air and ground forces. So they have to surrender. Most of the time, they capture many Russian prisoners. Russia uses human bodies as shock troops, but Ukraine uses drones, ground drones, and air control to control the front lines, destroying Russian rear oil refineries and chemical plants. And finally, last week, they announced that they would take 40 days to carpet bomb Moscow with drones, as a form of pressure. This is on the front lines and in the rear areas, the interior. This is considered the interior, including Moscow itself. Which is beyond 150 kilometers, considered the interior. They are destroying Russia. And distant oil refineries, even those 3,000 kilometers away, have been hit. Therefore, in the combat zone, Reuters analyzed that Ukraine has brought the war to the Russian people, and the Russian people feel that the war is outside their country and doesn't concern them. Now everyone sees the danger of war. For example, the oil refinery near Moscow exploded like a volcano. It was huge, with thick smoke. And everyone sees that it is very dangerous. Large cities like Krasnodar or Volgograd, which are top oil refineries in Russia, have been hit repeatedly, not just recently. They have been hit many times, and many refineries have had to stop production. As I mentioned, Russian production has declined so much that there is no oil to fill in Russia. People are queuing up. Whoever gets to fill up with oil is happy. This has led to Russian bloggers starting to call Putin stupid, the one who led Russia into this war. They say Russia is a strong military, a warrior, and so on. But Putin is the one who made it seem like they are losing the war a little. And the Russian people, who are innocent and living comfortably at home, are starting to talk on their websites, in their posts, about what is happening. Because the Russian people are starting to feel that the war has reached their homes, reached their doorstep. This is what has happened due to technological development. What I want to say in the end is that Russia uses a bureaucratic system, state-owned enterprises. Therefore, they can produce thousands of Iranian drones. But that's all they can do. They cannot change much. They have 131, 136, there are 2-3 types. But Ukraine has all types, everything. Including pursuit drones. Recently, countries like Kuwait have just signed a contract to get drone interception technology from Ukraine to intercept Iranian drones. Generally, as I mentioned earlier, China, Taiwan, and others are starting to develop drones with Ukraine. Not China, Japan, Japan and Taiwan. They are starting to develop jointly with Ukraine. All of this is what Ukraine has. They have advanced technology. And the United States itself is also producing jointly with Ukraine. Germany is also producing jointly with Ukraine to transfer technology to each other. Ukraine provides high-tech to the superpowers. Many countries will get proven battlefield technology. They will know how to win. And Ukraine itself says there are 160 variables for how to defeat Russia. They just announced it last week. And they have proposed it to the Thai army. Please find it and study it. How to fight in a real battlefield, win or lose, using what methods. So we are not blind. At least there are proven methods. Some things we can use and adapt to Thailand, because we might have wars in the East and West. It's possible. Because we don't know what will happen in the future. It's all possible. And currently, Thailand is one of the geographical points in the world that will be involved in security and warfare, quite certainly. It depends on what we choose in the near future. >> Mr. Seng, do you think that after 5 years of war between Ukraine and Russia, Putin must be tired, and Zelensky must be exhausted? Will we see a change in Ukraine this year, in Mr. Seng's view? >> It's hard to say, because >> He actually said just two days ago, he announced that he will not stop the war. And the West is instigating internal Russian politics, so they will have elections soon. And instead of just taking Donbas, which was agreed upon for 2-3 regions, he announced that he will invade another equal part, called Novorossiya. This is like a territory that is another equal part of what they currently have. Another equal part, so they will enter one-third of Ukraine. He says, "I will take this much." This will not end. While Putin himself says that Russia is the only independent and strong country. I'm still confused, because in reality, he has withdrawn a lot of troops from the east. And look closely, neighbors like Japan and China are watching. They will be taken over in the east. When the name changes to another country, perhaps the islands will be renamed Japanese, and cities in the east will be renamed Chinese. Russia doesn't seem to understand. It's all gone. They have moved troops from there to here. If you ask if it will end, it won't end. But what Ukraine can do is that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia. Russia is too big. But Ukraine can prevent Russia from invading, and they have to stop in place and be destroyed. Currently, Russia's invasion is negative. That is, the territory they have gained compared to Ukraine, Ukraine has gained more territory. Second, the loss of Russian soldiers, about 30,000 per month, is more than they can recruit. That is, they are not recruiting, they are accepting applications, and they get about 20,000-25,000. Therefore, after the election, I believe that after the election in the Russian Duma, they will announce general mobilization. Because last month, there was an announcement calling for registration, with names and papers. We just have to wait to see how much Russia can mobilize. And this will be a signal for escalation. Putin will use full force to crush them once and for all. At the same time, Belarus, Putin just went two days ago to talk to Lukashenko, as if to pressure him, saying, "Do it already." Lukashenko has been delaying all along. But he is still providing facilities for Russia on the border. Zelensky said that if you don't deal with this, I will come and tear you apart. And if Belarus joins the war with Russia, I think Lukashenko will not survive. Because it is within Ukraine's destructive range. It's very close. Belarus is very close. If Ukraine destroys factories, Lukashenko will not survive. But Lukashenko, if he wants to stay in power, must continue to delay. But if he rashly follows Putin, he will be finished and will not survive. This is good. For regime change, it cannot happen through a popular revolution. This is a term Mao used. It can only happen with external factors. Like the French Revolution, it happened due to defeat in war. And the Chinese Revolution happened due to the Japanese war. Otherwise, it's impossible. Marxism, Communism alone, cannot win. Russia also happened due to defeat in war. All of them happened due to external factors. This could happen in Belarus. Putin might not last either. But Russia will be very chaotic, and there could be secession. This can happen after the war. >> Yes, we will continue to follow. The war in Ukraine has been going on for 5 years. This channel has been running for 5 years, the same as the war in Ukraine. I hope the war in Ukraine will end this year. I don't want it to continue. The war in Iran will also end in 60 days. Many people say there will be a world war. I don't want to believe it. I believe peace will prevail. >> It's very unlikely. A world war is very unlikely. The Middle East is already divided into Sunni and Shia. They won't fight. They don't want it. Let Iran go, and it's over. >> How can there be a world war? If the superpowers fight, Russia fighting Ukraine is already exhausted. Will they fight Europe? >> Yes. >> Europe will retreat. >> The United States will go home. The United States will go home and fight China with economic warfare. There will be a war, unless China goes crazy and suddenly attacks Taiwan. That's another matter. >> Let's wait and see. >> So, Mr. Seng's view is that proxy wars will likely occur, countries will fight each other, but a major war between superpowers is unlikely to happen. >> Yes, unlikely. Because they are afraid. If superpowers fight each other, a world war will escalate to the point of using nuclear weapons. They are afraid. >> So, proxy wars are the easiest. >> Then, what are the factors that will make Putin, Russia, agree to end the war in Ukraine? What is the problem? >> The problem is Putin alone. Bloggers and Russian citizens themselves are starting to realize that this war is not easy, and they are suffering. Everyone realizes it. It has to reach a point where everyone tells Putin that they can't take it anymore. But Putin knows that Russian citizens are facing oil shortages, they have to queue. He knows it. But when he talks about territory, the map he shows doesn't match the world's map. The map shows a lot more land. So he thinks of taking more. "What you said you got, you haven't got it yet. It's still far away." It's only 20 kilometers. >> You said you captured 20 kilometers inland. It's not even there yet. When Putin says this, he gets more ambitious. He wants to go deeper. Actually, he is the real one. >> So, it's up to Putin. If he is pressured too much domestically, he might agree and end this war. >> Yes. >> Alone means that more and more people dare to report the truth to Putin until he knows the truth, because he lives in a virtual world, another world, not the world he is in. >> Yes, I sincerely hope we can talk again. >> Yes. >> When Putin says he will stop the war. >> We probably won't have to talk again, saying, "Oh, they are fighting for another year." It sounds like that. It's probably close. Let's look at the next election. If not, then it's over. >> Yes, thank you very much. Today I have learned a lot. See you in the next clip. >> You're welcome. >> Goodbye. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the Su Tao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch clips.