Transcription
Good day, folks, and welcome to a check on Chain Update for the 4th of April. And today we're looking at the Trump tariff tantrum. It's been a, uh, it's been a real show, to be perfectly honest. We've seen all sorts of assets take a few punches, and, uh, Bitcoin hasn't been spared, but at the same time, it's actually held up far better than I'd expected it to.
Now, it's still down about the same as equities, but if you had said to me six months ago, "Equities down 5% of the day, where's Bitcoin trading?" it's at least down double that. So the fact that Bitcoin's holding up pretty much the same as the S&P 500 and as good as the NASDAQ, uh, is—sorry, it's actually doing better off than the NASDAQ—is probably something to, uh, pay attention to.
Now, at the same time, this is obviously a pretty dynamic and significant shift in global markets. There's a lot happening, and I think it's important just to take a step back and look at all of the different dynamics. Look at some of the capital rotation. Where is money moving? Because in markets, money will always move to where it's treated best, and we can use those capital rotations and flows to get a bit of a read on where the world is moving.
So today we're going to be looking at tariffs. I want to share my thoughts. Now, first things first, I am no expert on the world of tariffs. Um, uh, probably like many of you, have been upskilling as we go through this process. Uh, but I want to share my initial thoughts and kind of gut feel for what it—I think—is going on on that front. Um, and then we'll also look at how gold—in particular, gold and bitcoin—are kind of performing as that sound money meter of value. Where do they sit in the grand scheme of things? And I want to close out by looking at some Bitcoin metrics and pricing models and really just this process of backfilling the air pocket. Uh, what we saw back there between 73 and 86. We've been there since, you know, late February, chopping around in this zone, trying to find out—you know, markets are a confidence machine—how much demand actually exists in this zone. You can see we're starting to backfill that zone as we speak.
So, uh, um, first let me share some thoughts on tariffs. Again, these are very early thoughts, just to kind of get my initial, you know, how I've been processing it so far. So you can kind of follow along with my thinking. Okay. So starting on my thoughts on tariffs. So I think the first thing to note is that Trump is doing exactly what he said he was going to do. Uh, and I, strangely enough, this is something that the market has largely discounted or not quite thought through in full. Uh, I think a lot of people thought he was going to bluff more than he is. Basically, tariffs have been a main—a mainstay—of the Republican platform or the Trump platform through the campaign. Um, and he's now essentially just putting them in.
Now, I think people are a bit shocked by the scale and how widespread they are, um, certainly by the implementation means and the calculation method. There's all sorts of question marks there, but I think this is one of those things where it's like the initial shock wave. I'd be surprised if tariffs go higher from here; um, it's more likely they get renegotiated down by various trading partners. There'll be negotiations; there'll be uh, retaliations; there'll be all this sorts of stuff. So first things first, there's no question this is going to be disruptive, but it's also not exactly outside the expected norm, generally speaking. Trump tends—tends to go bigger and then wind back. Um, that seems to be the general approach.
Now, another thing to just note is that tariffs are taxes. They are a net increase to the, uh, the cost of things. If you're importing anything into the US, it's going to be more expensive. I would not be surprised if this is a bit of a two and fro. The next set of policies I expect the Republicans will pursue will be tax cuts and deregulation. They put taxes in on the tariff side, which makes things more expensive, but at the same time, they're then going to go and say, "Well, let's make it easier for American businesses to deal with everything that they do," and that's via deregulation, cutting red tape, tax cuts. It remains to be seen how the bond market handles that because we've seen—I mean, and we'll talk about this shortly, so I won't go too deep into it—but the, uh, the Trump administration has a very keen eye on getting the 10-year yield much lower. So the fact that they've actually achieved that—well, if they start deregulating, that's probably a good thing. But if they start cutting taxes and they go down the wrong path on those fronts, um, the bond market could potentially say, "Well, no," and spit the dummy and go back the other direction.
So there's very much a dynamic situation where it stands. This is a reshaping of global trade relationships; uh, we are going to see countries—I think about my back home in Australia—we're going to have to rethink the balance and just work out like, where does Australia sit in the Australia versus China, because China is our biggest trading partner. Um, there will be a lot of countries who will bend the knee and say, "Okay, we understand America is top dog." There'll be a lot of other countries that say, "Well, China is kind of our main trading partner." So all nations have just been really woken up in what is already a multipolar world. All nations are now saying, "Well, now we've just been reminded that not only is it a multipolar world, but our friends may not be our friends." So definitely a dynamic element there.
And the last thing I want to touch on is these last two. There's no question that this is going to impact a lot of companies. Uh, I've seen some tweets talking about things like Nike. They've just shipped all their supply chains over to Vietnam. They've suddenly got a 45% tariff or something like that. Uh, how do they now—I mean, that's a huge impact. So I think first things first, these are going to have impacts; it is going to create uncertainty, and there are going to be companies that are going to have to lay people off as a result. So I expect that there will be that deflationary, potentially even recessionary impulse that comes into the wider system.
So look, I—I—I'm not—I'm not, uh, fine-tuned enough in understanding tariffs; I'm also not close enough to the macro to have any firm view on what that looks like. But I can't see it just being smooth sailing, and everyone's going to say, "Oh, well, okay, tariffs are in, carry on." To me, it is highly likely there's going to be disruption. And that really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone overall. So anyway, let's jump into some charts and particularly look at capital rotation and flows and how money is moving around the system.
Okay. Now, for this one here, um, and I would actually recommend for people who usually only watch the video—you'll obviously get all of the views here—but certainly I—I put quite a bit of time and thought into getting the written piece, um, through because a lot of these ideas, they're dynamic. In the world of macro, I actually find that writing, um, generally speaking, I can write about it with a lot more depth when I talk about it. So I'll kind of riff on these ideas. But what I wanted to do is just understand how Bitcoin is trading and various other assets are trading relative to each other because, as we've covered in that previous slide, there's a lot of dynamic shifts and, you know, there's been a widowmaker trade of money moving from US markets offshore back to foreign markets. This has been a trade that people have been expecting to happen for years, um, decades even. I've heard Lyn Alden talking about this as like a widowmaker trade. This could actually be the time when that starts to kicking into gear. Money may actually start to repatriate out of American markets, which have been the—the winning victor for 40-odd years. We're seeing American equity markets and bond markets have kicked ass. And what we're now starting to see is the first sign that if you were to borrow your local currency, swap it into dollars, the dollars beat the currency, and then you buy US assets, which beats the dollar. It's like a double whammy of winning. What happens if that starts to reverse and things start to go the other direction, where perhaps the currency—your local currency—the yen, for example, that you borrowed in—what if it gets stronger? Dollar asset that you bought gets weaker. Suddenly, there's this repatriation of money out.
So a lot of these charts are going to be relative, meaning here we're looking at Bitcoin versus the S&P. So Bitcoin priced in units of S&P. This is over literally the last two or three days. You can see it on the bottom here. This is April 2nd. Here's where the initial tariffs came out. Bitcoin performed poorly. Sold off versus the S&P. There's also a CA. This is looking at it on the futures basis. So they should all be trading, um, because obviously equity markets are closed overnight. Bitcoin had an initial shock wave, held its ground, to be perfectly honest, and then has rallied back through it. So in many ways, Bitcoin's actually performed better than the S&P. It's held its ground since the high over this last, uh, you know, 48 hours or so. And I think this is—if there's anything that you take away from the macro side of this—I actually think this chart is probably the most important. I know it's a little bit busy, but, um, I called this the Trump trifecta. In many ways, the administration has three primary goals. Um, there's a lot of goals involved, but in terms of market structure, they want the US 10-year down. Um, in terms of yield, it's down below 3.9%; I think it's at 3.8% at the time of recording. Um, so this thing—and this is the other thing—all the prices we talk about on this video, by the time you watch it, by the time I finish recording it, they're all going to be different. So this is a very highly dynamic situation. 10-year yields down. They need yields down because the government can't refinance for 10 years at a five handle. They can't do it. They have to get rates down. And this has been a primary motivator or driver for both Trump and—and Bent of late. The DXY or the US dollar is down—at 7% off its 2025 high. So the market initially priced in a strong dollar, but they've been very explicit. They want a weaker dollar. It makes the US exports more competitive in order to reshore things, make America competitive—a devaluation of the dollar. Now, by the way, this is reducing the benchmark borrowing rate—liquidity positive. Dollar down—liquidity positive. Oil breaking $65 a barrel. Energy is the primary input—primary cost. All things being equal, all three of these are actually liquidity positive.
Now, there's another side to this, and I'm sure that our friends over at the Bitcoin layer—Nick Bart—will talk about this a lot. The move index is spiking higher, which is the volatility on bonds, uh, the—as we spoke about in our Rough Consensus podcast—volatility on bonds reduces liquidity because it's the collateral is now moving around a lot more. But nevertheless, all three of these being equal is actually pro-liquidity. And the dollar being weaker usually signals an uptick in risk assets because it's the denominator. So it's quite interesting that we're seeing equities and everything falling off quite a bit. And this is because I think equities generally have a bigger headwind than things like Bitcoin and gold because they have companies; they have export prices. Bitcoin doesn't have an export price. It doesn't have a tariff. Gold doesn't have a tariff. All of these things—they're commodities, right? They're just a different world. And in many ways, commodities—I believe, at least to the best of my understanding—commodities generally have a different approach, um, even amongst these new tariff regimes.
Now, this is the—the widowmaker trade I was talking about before. Uh, this is just one way to plot it out. Here I'm looking at the S&P 500, uh, divided by the DAX. So basically, US versus German or European—probably the right way just to think about it. So higher values here—when this price chart is high—means that the S&P is outperforming. It is being priced higher than it is in European equities. So downtrends is when European equities are seeing more of a bid. And actually, we saw this from the dotcom bubble all the way through to 2008. It stagnated for many years through to 2018. Then we had another period of US outperformance in 2022 and 23. We started to get European outperformance that was more or less reversed. The DAX is up 20% versus the S&P. And if you—if anyone's involved in technical analysis—you'll probably notice that this looks like a lower high, lower low combination. This looks like a polarity reversal on a monthly scale. This looks like it might have legs.
So what this is really telling us—and the way I've been thinking about this—the US, with Doge and tariffs and all these things on the margin, this is an—more auster—more austerity in the US—marginally more fiscally responsible—in Europe, they've just said, "Hey, let's go out and borrow a trillion euro to re—rearming ourselves and get defense up and running"—marginally more fiscally irresponsible. Who's going to lend them the money? Who knows? But the point is there is now money being poured into—or plans for money to be poured into—on a fiscal side, on a borrowing side, into Europe. We're seeing the opposite in America. So if there's ever a time for this trade to actually start to reverse—and again, I have no edge on saying whether this does or doesn't—but this appears to me like, you know, we should take it seriously at least until it proves otherwise.
Now I want to talk about gold because gold's been on an absolute tear this year. Um, we almost got 20% up on the year. Uh, this chart here has got all the previous years of gold price in the background traces. I've then got our typical upyear in green. We've got election and post-election years in blue and purple, and then down years here in red. This is the best year that gold has ever had at this time—like 90 days in. This is the best that gold has ever performed. Um, and I think this data goes back to like 2002 or something like that. So certainly in modern era—one of the best years that gold has ever had. Uh, so something to pay attention to, right? Why are people buying a yellow metal? And I'm going to paraphrase Rick Rule, who's a legendary investor in the gold and commodity space. Uh, his general advice to people is you should own gold and hope it doesn't go up because when gold is going up, it usually means the world's in a bit of a pickle. So seeing gold performing the way it is is really speaking to that reshaping of the—of the world. It paints a backdrop where if you can't trust your nearest trading partner and trading partners are shifting and moving around, where you probably can't trust their debt as much as your savings instrument—neutral reserve asset. This is the Luke Roman thesis: Gold, Bitcoin—the landscape at a fundamental level. Tariffs, no tariffs—this is a breakdown of trust. I know I can trust my gold, and I can trust my Bitcoin. Sovereign nations are going to get to the same conclusion; companies will get to the same conclusion. When you're just hands off and risk off, if you can't go to the dollar, what do you do? Go to Swiss Francs, Japanese yen—you know, suddenly things like gold and bitcoin make sense as a place to just park money and wait the storm out. So the fundamental case, I think, just continues to build in many ways. This is why I own Bitcoin. It's why I'm a Bitcoin—it's why it makes perfect sense to me.
So what I thought I'd do is just price, uh, some key indexes, uh, in gold because I actually personally—and I've been doing this for some time now—I view gold as the benchmark. There's a lot of Bitcoiners who will say that the—that Bitcoin is the meter of value. I think it could become the meter of value, but I do believe that gold is, as of today, the meter of value. So if something isn't performing better than gold—a yellow metal—then it's, you know, it's telling you a story about that particular asset.
Now, uh, this is over the last 12 months, and I've priced various things. So gold is in the denominator here. Can you believe the S&P 500 is down 25% versus gold? Now, quite often, over the long t-arc of time, the S&P 500 and gold actually have very similar return profiles, right? Obviously, you can pick certain dates and whatever else, but just generally speaking, macro scale, they have about the same return until you factor in dividends. Once you factor in dividends, that's where the total return of the S&P or the equity market will outcompete gold. Generally speaking, if you're seeing gold outperforming by 25%, that's telling you—got a problem with your equity. And, uh, given that this is the whole market, Nvidia is down 18%; Bitcoin's had a tough year—14% versus, uh, versus gold. The DAX, which, as we saw before, is performing much better, um, than the S&P recently—13%, and silver down 9%. So really, gold has been kind of the only place people are hands off, risk off—get into gold and just sit tight. That seems to be the—where capital is flowing at the moment. But again, painting that sound money backdrop.
Now, this is the year-to-date price performance, Uh, and this is where I wanted to start talking about Bitcoin specifically, and we'll move into some of the onchain stuff. Um, if we look at Bitcoin specifically, S&P is down 9% year to date versus the dollar; Bitcoin's down 10% year to date; NASDAQ's down 12%. If you told me that the stock market was going to have a 5% decline in a day, I would be thinking Bitcoin would be down 10% that day. No, relative to the S&P, it's down the exact same. It's flat. The fact that Bitcoin is holding up the way it is amidst the headwinds—and that doesn't mean we're going to moon to all-time high tomorrow—at some point in time, the obvious, uh, Bitcoin is much closer to gold than it is to the S&P. So it's much closer to that than a levered NASDAQ, which a lot of people like to disparage Bitcoin with. So in many ways, when I look at this general dynamic, I do expect Bitcoin's fundamentals want to move towards gold. The market, because of positioning and, you know, your risk manager taps you on the shoulder—you just have to sell whatever you've got. People are going to sell the Bitcoin, right? They're not going to—they're going to sell it first, ask questions later, but eventually they're going to start asking the questions, and eventually they're going to realize, "Hey, this thing actually makes hell of a lot more sense." Um, certainly given the backdrop that we have in front of us. And then you really zoom out and say, "Well, what does Bitcoin look like versus the S&P on a macro scale?" I've been in markets for some time. Um, you know, not—not as long as many people, but when I look at a chart like this—this is on a monthly scale—this is a rip-roaring monster uptrend on a monthly scale. And this pullback—I don't know about you—but it looks pretty healthy to me. This looks like the kind of thing that you would typically say, "Well, that looks like the dip, and I just actually step in." So on a relative value, Bitcoin's doing just fine, right? So a lot of people will call it just a led equity. It's kicking ass when it comes to equities. Um, and you know, at this point in time, it—it kind of feels like that—that seems to be what that divergence is starting to click on. Um, certainly on a fundamental basis, I can make a case, but also just simply on a price perspective, it's—it's holding up and standing out, and I believe there's a chance it increasingly will.
Okay. So now let's, uh, move specifically into the Bitcoin side. So, um, I think the picture we've painted so far—gold is just the risk-off—"I don't know what to do. Just get me out of cash, get me out of dollars, get me out of equities. I want to just survive." Um, that's what I think gold is doing. I think that paints a backdrop that many Bitcoiners are familiar with. It's probably why we hold Bitcoin in many instances. But now let's think about this on the short term. I also mentioned with the tariff side of the equation, I do have a decent case that we could get a deflationary impulse. I don't think these tariffs have made anyone's life easier. It's made it—you know, short-term pain, long-term gain is probably the right framework to think about this stuff. Um, so what does that short-term pain potentially look like? So this is obviously Bitcoin's price chart. It's trading below the 200-day moving average, uh, which is 863. Until we get cleanly above and hold above the 200-day moving average—for me personally—again, I'm no technical analyst—this looks like a bare flag to me. So my base case expectation is that this bare flag wants to release to the downside. So I do actually still expect further downside price action, even though that long—short-term gain, long-term pain—sorry, short-term pain, long-term gain—hopefully not long-term pain. Uh, if we do release to the downside, the first obvious stop is getting down to 76 to 78K. That is where MVRV gets back to its neutral value. That is the long-term average of where MVRV trades. If you want to think about that in terms of bull-bear—kind of that bull-bear type line—um, not necessarily strictly, you know, it doesn't have to be perfect, but, uh, if we get down to that range low, that's obviously the first stop. Um, preferably we want to see demand come in here. If not, getting back down to the top of the 24 chop—right, this is 72, 73, 70K—low 7s—that's where I would expect to see support come in. Now, if we do get down to that level, personally, I would like to see it be a short, sharp reversal—sell off, come down to that zone, the bulls come in, and then we get a—a nice big like a slingshot move back to the upside. Um, remains to be seen, but until we get above the 200 day, I am currently viewing this as a bare flag with an expectation that in the near term, I think it will correct lower. Um, if it doesn't—it goes above the 200 day—happy days. If it does and it sells off from there, um, personally, I'm not going to be too surprised. Um, but at the same time, I think that anywhere in the 70s, the bulls have to mount their defense.
And this is the MVRV ratio. This would—if we did get back down to 78—that would take us back down to the mean. Now, this is mid-2021; we found support there. There's actually very few times when we've had to come back down and test this level. 2016 was just too much of a continuous adoption-driven uptrend. Chop, consolidation. 2023, we've had a few instances where this has been kind of the normalization level. Isn't it funny we've got this kind of general pattern here where we rally up, we don't get extreme overheated, we just get hot, we pull back, we fully cool down, we rally, we get hot, we pull back, fully cool down. So in the—in the context of 2023 to 25, this is actually still quite normal. So getting down to that level again doesn't—doesn't break my bull thesis at this point. But just notice that bare markets, we tend to trade below that mean level. So that's why I just define it as like—it is an important level. I would rather us not trade down to 70 and then creep down to 65. All these things, whilst I expect support will come in, demand will come back in—it's—I just think that's where you start to test people's longer-term convictions. Um, and it can just lead to a longer-term, uh, longer-term drawdown. Although that is not my base case for now. On the more short-term dynamics—short-term MVRV and SOAPA both nice and clean below one. Funding rates are still very, very cheap. All right, 5% annualized. So we're still seeing a pretty significant pullback, um, a cooling down of the market. Check the hodddler. If he looked just at this chart, he would say, "Okay, happy to stack sats." Um, I don't think too much more beyond that. Basically, all the conditions I would look—
For, for check the hodler to be stacking stats where he's got that long-term price-insensitive view, uh, on the short-term MVRV on a statistical basis. We can then see this blue zone here. This is kind of like a a fundamental support band; right, this is when the short-term holders have just taken enough of a beating. It's usually where capitulation kicks in. Very rarely do we trade too far below it. It tends to be kind of that lower bound. That's between 71 and 79. So again, painting the 70s, uh, as that zone where I think the bulls will come in and on the short term, more or less oversold by, uh, by many metrics.
Now, just being aware that ETF inflows, I would describe these as tepid at best. We're not seeing a huge amount of demand flowing in. Um, again, if your risk, if you're an institutional investor, your risk manager taps you on the shoulder, you're probably not, you know, if he's just saying degross, just sell stuff, get it off the book, you're probably not going and buying Bitcoin ETFs as your your second step. So until, you know, this is a good measure of demand, we're not seeing any major demand inflows. Again, pointing to this is probably more likely to be a bear flag than a, uh, a bottoming. It's part of the bottoming process, I think. Um, but at the same time, it doesn't really have the strength to push us higher just yet. Okay.
And the last chart on the, uh, kind of the Bitcoin overall analysis front, um, kind of the counter to that where we don't have demand coming in, we also don't have a lot of sell-side. This is long-term hold of sell-side on a 30-day basis. So old coins coming back to life. Um, we're seeing a fairly dramatic decline here. And if we look at the cumulative sell side, it's really starting to taper out. So we're seeing that, just generally speaking, sell-side is slowing down. People who already hold Bitcoin are becoming less likely to take profit and sell it. They're actually looking at these prices and going, "Well, I've kind of done my profit taking, I'm just going to sit tight, right?" So we are moving into that huddle, only sit tight regime. There's less sell side. There's also less demand, which is probably why we're chopping around sideways and not getting too far too quickly.
All right, so there's three more charts I want to cover just to close out on the air pocket. This is the infamous air pocket between 73 and 86. This is a zone where we just didn't know how much demand was there. Market shot up. We just don't know how many people wanted to buy there. We're in the process of backfilling it. Now there's a couple of patterns I can look at here. The first one is about 45% of the supply. Now this is on a USD basis. So we're looking at every coin when it last transacted. Think about it like saved, stored, invested wealth on a USD basis. 45% of all the wealth has a cost basis down in the chop, solidation range and below. This used to be almost zero. This, you know, 70, the air pocket 75 to 86. We're now up to about 90k because we can see we're starting to backfill this zone quite a bit. We're up at about 61% is below. And if we got 45, this is about 16.5% of the USD wealth is now in the air pocket. This is now meaningful in terms of general scale. And if we go back to 90k, if 61% of it is at 90k, that means about 30% of it is above. So that means that all these coins up here, this used to be 52. So we used to have 52% of all the dollars with the cost bases above 90k. Super top-heavy, super risky, just lots of people exposed to downside risk. We're starting to see those people, particularly people from the higher prices, 100k, 105, starting to distribute their coins to lower levels, resetting the cost basis. We've also seen a lot of people from 95, the short-term cost basis is just here at this lower bound. A bunch of people from 95 to 100 also capitulating down to these lower levels. Generally speaking, textbook, that's kind of what you want to see, local top buyers who are underwater by just enough that they start to capitulate, fearing that it's going to go lower. And they they're probably they could be right. Right. I do think that we have a decent chance of going lower. But the question is, are they selling here and are they actually going to buy back down here? Do we bottom and then it starts to rally and they become forced buyers on the way back up? All TBC.
But overall, this is generally the redistribution process that we actually like to see. Uh, generally speaking, okay, and this is where we can look at our heat maps. Now this is looking on a 30-day, uh, how has the supply changed over that 30-day window. We can see our short-term cost based here at 932. Lots of the supply being sold is coming from higher prices. Notice this big dense cluster. All the people who bought here thinking that Bitcoin is going to rip to 200k, they're now selling that it's 85. So all the people who started to accumulate in this zone appear to be now distributing and selling that supply and moving it down into the air pocket. Right, you can see on the way up, people sell and take profit, start accumulating at these higher levels. They're now starting to get flushed out.
And lastly, if we now look at our total supply distribution, so this is just where do all the coins live, there's still a huge cluster between 95 and 100. And honestly, these people, they they've been fairly tested. I know there's people who are capitulating out of here. There's a lot of folks here who are just going to sit tight and do nothing. Maybe if we get one more leg lower, maybe they'll start to capitulate. We're filling in this this air pocket. It's early days. Um, as you've seen with the ETFs, if they were ripping to the upside, lots of inflows, lots of supply distribution, yes, we'd backfill this quicker. It's a slow and gradual process, but you can see the level of support. It still exists down here in this chop consolidation range. There's a lot of supply. True market mean is right in the middle of it. I would be very surprised if this doesn't act as a serious support level. And if that's correct, there's going to be a lot of people who have, you know, from a technical basis, from an on-chain perspective, whatever it is, there will be a lot of people who look at this zone and say it's probably going to act as support. Um, so therefore, people will start to front-run and say, well, if we get down to 70, it's going to be brief. Maybe I'm happy to allocate at 85, 80, so on so forth. So look, let's see how this all plays out. And as I said, very, very dynamic. Prices will be completely different by the time you watch this video, probably by the time I finish recording. Um, but overall, I think there's a there's a probably a deflationary impulse that's going to move through markets. At the same time, what do you hold in an environment like this? For me, you know, given all the risk, it's it's just sound money, right? To me, it's it's just a sound money. It's case for sound money. You need something that you can trust. And if you can't trust your allies, which you have for the last 40, 50 years, nations are going to start looking for something to just be hands-off into gold, into Bitcoin, and just wait and just see what happens, right? They need a savings vehicle. And, uh, to me, it's it all of this is, I mean, in many ways, this is kind of the thesis for why I hold this weird funky money. Um, this, you know, in many ways, is just adding more layers to it. So look, folks, stay frosty out there. Um, I hope you're learning something about markets. I'm certainly learning a lot about tariffs and how all this stuff works, but, uh, I always find markets are an endless learning journey. And I think if you, you know, make the most of it and kind of enjoy the ride along the way, uh, you'll get the most out of it. But anyway, folks, have a good one, have a good weekend, and I'll catch you next week. Cheers.