Transcription
Today's number, guys, is two, as we've witnessed the second largest dark pool activity ever recorded from Wall Street into oil ahead of the events this weekend's. But what's going on right now could impact everything when we lose certain key levels. And in today's video, we need to discuss what's going on with options walls, what's happening with the range-bound markets at the moment, and maybe more importantly than all of this, what retail traders seem to be doing and what Wall Street actually is doing. Nvidia had great earnings, but it seems to be trapping liquidity. Could this be the start of something much, much bigger? Don't go anywhere if you love stocks, commodities, or cryptos, just like us. There's so much to get into. Let's do it right now.
Well, welcome back, everybody, to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and today we're discussing the macro, what Wall Street's been up to, and of course, the key flows that defined all of the movements into the weekend. We saw clusters, we saw the second largest dark pool ever on energy stocks. And of course, we saw defensive moves coming through the market ahead of the weekend information. So, why was this? Well, we saw a bit of movement in, of course, those pizza trackers over the weekend, and that led into, of course, the geopolitical conflict that we now find ourselves in with everything that's going on in Iran. Now, of course, more information has come out since then, and I had a suspicion it may. So, that has of course made people start to think two different ways around markets. But I thought today, what we'll do is we'll just look at the data stats, we'll look at the flows, and we'll try to keep that stuff out of it. Let's see what actually tends to happen, and then more importantly, look at the key levels that could define the next couple of weeks. Remember, flows matter more than opinions when it comes to this stuff, as you do need temperament as a trader and investor. It's a very important factor.
So, Ryan Detri over at Carson Research, check him out, Ryan Detri over on X. I did post and retweet over at our FX Evolution uh Twitter as well, or X account, if you're interested in the links in the description down below. He basically posted the stats of what the S&P 500 has done all the way back from the 1940s in terms of one month later, three months later, and six months later. And what I think is important about these data stats is that you'll see while the market does tend to hold its own, it doesn't necessarily go absolutely skyrocketing off. Now, some of the most recent ones, we have seen some pretty bullish movements over the next three months, but don't necessarily just think that's going to exactly happen. We also have Blue Curtic putting together very similar stats here and showing that we do tend to get some pretty big drawdowns during these times as well. And because this year is a midterm election year, it is open to more problems. Often March does okay, and then sometimes we see April start to really have some problems in it, and that's often where you get the midterm election slump. So, will it be that way again? Well, we'll cover those data stats as we are now heading into March. Of course, we've seen monthly closes, but take a look here at the 12-month max loss. On average, it seems to be about 6.7%, and the 12-month maximum drawdown is around 11% of similar events. And of course, each one is unique. Each one is different. So, you do take it with a grain of salt. But I think what I'm really trying to get out there is it doesn't necessarily mean the market is just going to fall away and crash straight away. A lot of people come out with hyperbole over these periods and they say, you know, "Oh, the market's going to crash," and this is, you know, "the end," and this is "the beginning," and this is all these other things. Realistically, until you see key levels broken, you can't be saying the flows are moving that way.
Now, let's talk about flows because we saw some massive ones here. Volume leaders with the second largest dark pool activity ever recorded on energy stocks. Now, this came in near the close, and as you guys know, it seems like people know a lot about markets right now. Now, are they just looking at pizza trackers and figuring out that people are in the Pentagon? Uh, is it something else going on? I don't know. But realistically, we did get a monster transaction. And since then, of course, we've seen oil skyrocket up. Basically, oil stocks are probably set to open higher based on this news, and we're probably also going to see oil barrels going up. Now, if you're new to the channel, you may not be aware. We've actually been looking at this flow for a long time, around four months now. We've been following oil services, and then of course, oil barrels and oil stocks have been pretty much the best sector so far in 2026. Now, you might say, "Why is that happening?" Well, it's because we always expected, and we've always known, that this is what the market's moving into, that geopolitical tensions seem to be rising around the world. And unfortunately, this often does happen in clusters, and it's kind of been going now for a little while. You can see that according to the IG weekend Wall Street kind of readings, I checked the markets. They were up or down about 0.2 to 0.3%. So, actually not too much movement on stocks themselves. These aren't necessarily the best reads in the world because they're pretty illiquid. But you can see here, 7.11% up on oil. So, barrels are set to go up. And this is along the lines of what we already were seeing in the charts with effectively pullbacks to major demand levels, major support levels. We'll look at oil later, and of course, if you go back and check our previous video, you'll see exactly what we were talking about.
Now, going to Blue Curtic here, we do have some interesting stats for, of course, in March. You'll tend to see here that the market sometimes does rally at the beginning of March, drop a little bit, and in terms of where the strength usually is, it's actually at the end of the month. The general strength comes through near the end of the month, and you can see here the averages over time. We'll talk more about that in subsequent videos because of course, there's so much to discuss today. But uh, yeah, it is tending to be one of those months that tends to kind of go sideways for a little while and then sometimes break out. Remember, 7,000 on the S&P, you'll see soon, is probably the most important. On the calls and on the put side, it's around 6,770 to 6,800. If either of these levels are broken, we could be looking at a big move.
Now, in our last video, we talked about the fact that Block and of course, uh, what was happening there, which was about 40% of their workforce was going to be sacked and unfortunately lose their jobs. And we also talked about Sam Altman, of course, saying that basically AI is being used as the excuse. Now, I asked you guys, and we have a lot of software engineers in this com in this uh community, and of course, in the comment section down below, what your thoughts were. And of course, we shared this chart here from David Sachs over on X and Citadel Securities. And what we saw was a lot of job postings. But I think you guys are probably right. And the comment I made was, "Maybe this is the tale of two stories." But what you guys actually said was that these, a lot of these are actually ghost listings. So, effectively, we're seeing kind of fake listings, uh, or at least listings where there are no jobs, um, coming through, and this seems to be a trend that's kind of accelerating. Now, I'm sure there's a tail in the middle of it all, but I think you can't really necessarily get enough information from this. A lot of you guys in the comment section below as well said that it's basically just like what we've always said, the entry-level jobs, they're the ones that are struggling, and anyone that knows kind of how to code, knows how to do things, they're actually getting more work. So, it's just a tale of, you know, there's multiple different ways to look here. And what we're actually watching is whether we see flows telling us that there is something wrong in the economy that is specifically going to be back to the bonds, and whether we see the bonds market, that is the debt markets, the biggest ones in the world, whether we start to see them freak out.
Let's also take a look at some large dark pools that came in before all of this. Obviously, we saw VOO here over at Volume Leaders, one of the biggest S&P 500 ETFs. It dropped after, of course, selling at that supply, and it's now come back down to around the demand zone or where we saw previous buying. So, it's probably going to open somewhere around there on the Monday session. In terms of the NASDAQ, though, we did get the largest cluster ever recorded on the Thursday, and this was $5.4 billion in size, and this is 55 trades that got that done. And you can kind of see that again, what happened. The market dropped after that. So, there's quite a lot of large dark pool activity within this tight range on the markets. There are a couple of other big trades that have also gone through. One of them was notably Netflix.
Now, one of the things that probably is a major blessing for Netflix was that they obviously dropped out of the deal uh to acquire Warner Brothers. Now, why this is such a big deal is because I don't think there's ever really been, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I don't think there's ever really been a good media acquisition. So, if you go through like when Disney bought Fox, yeah, it wasn't really that good, was it? And if you go through some of the other ones, it doesn't tend to work out. So, the market obviously loves this because they're like, "Thank goodness we we're not seeing Netflix do this." And yeah, the market has obviously turned, and you can actually see it happening in the price action. This was something over at fxevolution.com in our Market Masters Club, our private community filled with legends like you guys. Um, we actually saw it in the charts. It again, price action. Remember, patience, react, don't predict. Funnily enough, it already started to show in the flow, and that's what we're all about here on the channel. It's about bringing it all together and understanding the flow is picking up. Now, did I know it was going to do this or that was the announcement? No. But what I have seen is the largest transaction to go through on this two times levered fund. Now, that could say maybe a little bit take profits going on, but certainly you can see quite a lot of big movement coming into this stock. The last time we saw a trade this big, it was the N for Netflix. Could it now be the beginning of something good? Well, we'll be looking for that on the charts.
I also thought I'd do a little bit of a vote here on what you guys thought for the next 100-point move. And I did this because I saw a few other reports and a few other communities doing similar votes. Now, before the news of, of course, uh, Iran's Supreme Leader being killed, which I believe is official now, again, if I'm wrong, I just looked at what I looked at in terms of the news. But before that, people were voting around 65 to 70% in terms of down, and now they're voting around 50/50. So, you can see here that you guys are split in terms of which direction it goes. And I don't blame you. I think there's a case for both the bears and the bulls right now because, guess what? The markets are sideways. Now, if you're generally going to go with which side is better, generally the bulls are better. It's just statistics, guys. But yeah, breakouts could be huge.
Now, this is one of the reports. This one's here from Helen Misler, which is ChartFest One over on X. You can check her out, I think. And, um, basically, she went and did a bit of a survey, but she's been surveying her community for a while. So, I really enjoyed this one because you can see here that often when her community is going, kind of like the sentiment poll is pretty negative, it's actually been an interesting one that there's been a sideways action often after these or even getting closer to the top. Now, again, take it with a little bit of a grain of salt. These are just sentiment reports, but always interesting. This that was about 2,000 people, I think, that voted on that one. By the time we recorded this, we had about 600, 700 ourselves. And obviously, if we did on YouTube, I'm sure we could have got a similar result, and you guys probably would have voted in a thousand. So, I always appreciate that.
Nvidia, what is going on here? Now, Nvidia got trashed after not being able to get through that gamma wall. Now, of course, I don't mind Nvidia's price action in terms of I thought that it's been holding up, but uh, yeah, this 170M, this is a dangerous zone for it. And you can see here, according to the latest data here from Patient Investor at Patient Investor over on X and Fiscal AI, basically we have a forward PE that's coming down to some of the cheapest Nvidia's been valued at in years. And this has historically been a basing pattern for Nvidia. So, again, what's important, guys, you're going to see it very soon. 170, 170, 170. It's all about that zone. That is really what matters here. And one of the reasons why I think this is occurring, and you can see this chart here from, um, over at, I think it's J, the J there to help one over on X, um, posted this one. It's also from Vendor. Basically shows that retail traders massively bought Nvidia after that news. And I think something we said on this community was that we don't really believe that the best trade is usually where all the eyes are. So, in this case, what did we know? Nvidia might catalyze a few things. And so far, it's actually catalyzing software, which I think is uh very interesting indeed. And Netflix and all these other things have suddenly started catalyzing. But at the same time, everyone's been trying to buy flow Nvidia. Because if it's in the press, guys, yeah, you know, down below, it's in the price, guys. I'm telling you, every time when everyone knows something or everyone's doing something, you've got to be very suspicious.
Ford PE ratios. This is an awesome one here from Duality Research. Actually went through and had a look at all of the different sectors. And what he found was technology stocks actually again coming down to cheap areas now in terms of fundamentals over the last five years. Interesting to see consumer staples, energy, though I take energy. Energy has been so cheap for a while, so I can see why it's down there. Um, and now it's moved so far up, but utilities as well as materials. All starting to get up there in terms of price. So, you know, some of those have had some epic runs. I'm not sure they're over yet, but certainly this chart is a cool one, and it shows some really interesting stats coming along with it.
Let's now jump into the charts and have a look at the S&P. So, I think it was probably going to open up more down, and now it's probably going to open up somewhere around price, maybe slightly negative, uh, into the Monday session. Again, I wouldn't take that with a grain of salt. We'll see how the end-of-day flows go. But you can see here the weekly 20 moving average, the mean reversion level. That's the most important zone to be looking at here on the charts. And the fact that we haven't broken that mighty 6,800, 6,770 on the downside and 7K on the upside. When we give you the updated options, you'll see why all of that's important. When we have a look at the updated options high-low levels, you guys can see here again the bottom of the range, the upside of the range, and it's still trading, yeah, you guessed it, pretty much right in the most traded area. So, this is still a stock picker's market. It's a sector selection market. Nothing has changed really when we're looking at that type of stuff.
All right. Well, let's now take a look at the options gamma walls. And you guys know that there's really just mainly two levels in town. The 7,000 level, which is a huge breakout for the bull side in markets, and then of course the 6,800 level, which on all expirations comes up as the major put wall. Now, it's very important to note that if you're new here to the channel, gamma walls, or these basically these levels, often trap markets, and when they are broken through, we often see an explosion in overall uh movement in terms of hedging, and this creates sometimes a waterfall effect, specifically on the downside. And boy oh boy, did we see a lot of hedges start to come in through the Friday session. You can see here based on the first trading day in March, everyone has gone negative. And I can only imagine this is going to stack during the session. So that is if the markets want to make, let's say, the most amount of money possible. This is often when, if it's in the press, it's in the price happens, and you see prices actually move up against it. Now, we've had this a couple of times. It doesn't mean it's going to happen. But you can see here the cluster of puts that are now underneath. So, markets still remain pretty much trapped between the 6,800 and the 7,000 level. When it comes to the Qs, very similar. 600, 600, 600, nothing new here for any of us that have been watching for a long time. And when it comes to Tesla, 400 is the put wall, and of course, the call wall is 420, 430. There's really not much going on in Tesla just yet. I think we'll update that on the charts, uh, when we see more information.
Time, though, this is the 170. The 170 becomes the strike pretty much everywhere. And as soon as you go out any months or even a couple of weeks, you always see 170. It's the best technical level as well. So, because Nvidia is dropping, could we see ABGO? You know, Broadcom, I think, got its earnings this week. We'll get more on that in the next video. All of this is going to lead into potentially a lot of risk in the markets. So, guys, I I think it's really important that we look at these key levels, and Nvidia just is struck so heavily at 170. So, if we do drop this, this could be a real tell that something is not right. Remember, semiconductors are the backbone of the AI bubble. And I always call it an AI bubble because I think that whenever you have a new technology, it's amazing. It goes through a hardware phase, it has a bottleneck, the bottleneck pops, then you come back and you say, "This is still real." Okay, it's real, guys. It's real, but then there's always a growing pain. Think of the internet. Think of the mobile phone. Think of pretty much any technology ever recorded. I actually talk about this in my advanced masterclass as well, which is a quick plug to it over at fxevolution.com.
So, why is this so important? Well, basically, these levels will matter because if we drop some of these zones, it's going to potentially cause quite a lot of liquidity problems, and that creates, of course, usually a freakout in the bonds market, and we will be watching for that. So, we'll talk about those in a moment. IBIT, which is the major for Bitcoin, actually holding okay. I know Bitcoin dropped back to the support level we've talked about, but it's since actually skyrocketed back up. So, we'll talk about this soon. Level to watch though on IBIT is 35.
Let's now jump into the lead indicators, jump into the things that are concerning or good. We had semiconductors break to a new high and then sell off. Now, they're still technically in an upward trend, but that was a little nasty that weekend close. Um, so again, semiconductors need to be watched. Key level to watch in the future is actually going to be 376. And I think Nvidia is probably the key watch, which is going to be 170, 170, 170. You know, we drop a level like this. Uh, we're in potentially a really big problem. So, Nvidia is still holding up and it's kind of, you know, floating on down. I think because of retail activities, so many people bought it because they're, "If it's in the press, it's in the price." Remember, use the big stocks as catalysts for the smaller stocks, and you'll find maybe life might be a little bit easier.
US yields actually dropped off a cliff. So, we actually saw them drop heavily into the Friday session. These may drop even further. We'll have to see how that plays. But basically, this is indicating another cut is coming, and we do know, of course, we've got a new Fed chair this year, and that Trump also wants a bunch of cuts. So, effectively, all of this is kind of leading into, yeah, maybe some cuts are coming, and maybe there's weakness in the economy. But to remember, the economy and what's going on on, uh, Wall Street are a little bit different.
I have also read some reports into Vegas as well, and I saw the numbers are looking pretty bad there. Now, Vegas can be a canary. So, maybe on the ground there, guys, what are you seeing in Vegas? Put it in the comments down below. I'm always reading. I read your comments about software. Let me know about Vegas. If you work there, do you see less numbers? Are you seeing people just not spending? You know, what is going on? Because I think there's something going on that's very different from the American consumer to Wall Street's AI bubblefest.
Now, let's have a look at some other things that are interesting. We saw here Microsoft. You can kind of see again, the market was dropping to a series of lower lows. It filled the gap. It's kind of found a dogey on the weekly, and you've got a lot of volume coming through. You also can see in software as well that since the catalyst of Nvidia's earnings, we've actually seen software pick up a little bit. So, it'll be interesting to see if we can break through key zones such as 8350 and 87. So, a little bit of activity in these massive volumes as well. And of course, then we also have Netflix, which suddenly just got skyrocketed off that news, of course, no deal, and broke the downward trend line and has been rocketing up. If we have a look at RK as well, it held relatively well. Again, technology is actually cheaper now than many other sectors of the market. So, it's a sector to watch. And I know that everyone's going to be, you know, freaking out and looking at oil. Um, yeah, but again, if you've been watching the channel, you would know that oil has been something we've already looked at for ages here on the channel. So, probably comes as no surprise that it's rallying. And we'll see the key levels in a moment.
Financials still holding barely onto the support. So, we'll be watching that. Particularly watch JP Morgan as well. If we lose financials, we lose some of these key levels, that could be telling us there's a sickness in the economy. So, we'll be watching that very closely, guys. And of course, the silver has continued. Basically, the hedges against geopolitical tensions are rising up. Silver squeezing to 93.80. And we've also seen gold as well break up as well. Maybe it's going to 53.70ish, um, as it continues to climb. Kind of as we've expected so far. Um, no real problems with those charts.
Now, oil ended up being a really good load, uh, if you were buying based on technicals alone. We talked about the 20-day moving average, one of my favorites. Obviously, a really simple moving average, but you know what? Don't break something if it's simple and good, guys. Look at that thing. Absolutely nailed that zone. It's one of my favorite little, uh, kind of easy strats that I kind of came up with. Jeez, how long ago? 15 years ago. It's been a while now, guys. Been a while. Uh, but yeah, this basically, um, is spiking of course, geopolitical tension, especially where it has been, um, where it's been happening. This usually creates quite a lot of spike in oil. Um, and, you know, in terms of targets, look, a lot of people are going to be looking for 70, but I think 75 is, 74 to 75 is going to be a very important zone to hit. Now, I think a lot of people chase these. I don't think chasing anything is a good idea. Generally speaking, if you're in it, cool. If you're not, you know, move on to the next one. Abundance mindset. You know, there's just not worth chasing stuff. You end up getting yourself in lots of trouble, and it's not good.
Chinese market still holding up. Obviously, downward trend line now. So, we want to breach that. Something above 272 will be key. We'll see whether it can hold because it hasn't exactly had epic price action just recently.
Let's also take a look at crypto for a moment here. And you can see that Ethereum did bounce off the lows. So, it came down, pretty scary stuff. Went up, then went down, creating a very big structure here now. And then it spiked back up off all of the news that's been going on this weekend. And we saw Bitcoin really spike up as well, back into the 67, 68 range. So, if it breaks this downward trend line, so this basically, all this movement down, then, uh, yeah, I think this is, this is kind of showing, uh, that things are starting to heat up a little bit here for this demand zone that we've been talking about. Bitcoin. So, that's another week potentially going to close to the upside. It's definitely a space to watch.
I thought we'd finish here just with talking about the generalized market. We haven't seen C bonds freak out just yet. I do have my own reads on court bonds, but I haven't seen them absolutely collapse just yet. So, again, it doesn't look like it's a systemic kind of failure in the financial system just yet. We are watching. And of course, we'll be kind of looking over everything as this story and everything else unfolds.
Guys, I think this is one of those times where you've got to kind of put your opinion, you've also got to put your feelings and emotions to the side. I've often said temperament is the most important thing as traders and investors. And if you watch the news or you pay attention to a lot of these channels, unfortunately, what happens is you end up getting biased, and that creates really big problems for you. It also creates a stress you just do not need. In 2026, I do not expect 2026 to get easier, guys. It's going to get crazier. And unfortunately, I've said it all year. I said 2025 would be similar. So, what are we going to do? Well, we're going to follow the flows, guys. Follow the flows. And currently, the markets are trapped. The stocks have been going towards breadth. We'll talk about it in the next video. Again, just another way to track it. And yeah, we just cannot say that it's necessarily breaking down yet. I know that's in the face of everything that's going on. So, don't worry, we'll track bonds. Subscribe to the channel, smash the alert button. Thank you so much for bearing with me. A little bit later video this weekend. I had a suspicion that we'd find more information, and I didn't want to release completely outdated info. So, yeah, that's where we're at. Uh, but yeah, not time to panic. We'll see what happens next.