Transcription
I think going into it, I think we have to assume macro headwinds going into early 2026. Do you think we're in a bare market? But I could see it potentially being over as early as May.
>> What is the reasoning?
>> You can never convince people to get in when they should because like it's not cool to buy crypto when when the prices are low and so they'll ignore you and then eventually they listen to you. They'll listen to you at a peak and then they'll blame you after that. Markets humble everyone. The worst thing is if you're wrong doubling down when you are wrong. That's the worst thing.
Our favorite Ben Cohen is here with me at Binance Blockchain Week. He is the founder of Into the Cryptoverse and one of the smartest people I know.
>> I appreciate that, but I'm not.
>> People call you the fortune teller because a lot of times you come to our show and you say, "Hey, this is going to happen." Last time you said it was November 14th, something around that. And then whatever you predicted actually happened.
>> Okay. I don't remember what it was, but yeah. Yeah, I mean I think I've been on your channel cross
>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. I think uh I think a lot of times I've been on your I think I was on your channel maybe in early 2025 as well cuz we talked a little bit about like Salana Bitcoin and I was talking about how it was going to go down like Salana's Bitcoin valuation is going to go down. It's kind of like following Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation.
>> Um but yeah, I mean like it's it's really interesting time in the market because people are like is it a bull market? Is it a bare market?
>> It's a fair market.
>> Yeah, I mean I I think so. I but I think it's it's it's very similar to prior bare markets in the sense that it's like we're topping in Q4 of the posttop year like we always do. Q4, 2013, 2017, 2021 were all the peaks and then we had bare markets. But what's different is that we topped on apathy rather than euphoria. And that's more similar to 2019. Um and what's also similar to 2019 is social interest was really really low. It was when quantitative tightening came to an end in 2019. Bitcoin topped out a couple of months before QT ended. And now it looks like it's doing the same thing. It topped in October. QT ends in December. Um it it's really reminiscent of those market conditions. And so when you have a nonuporic top, what it means is that you don't have So from euphoric tops, you have all the retail that comes in and buys the top and then they usually lead to these like brutal bare markets, right? Because they're they're selling.
>> Yeah. When you have a non- euphoric top like 2019, you still have a bare market, but it's more of like a slower progression of people just kind of like slowly giving up is what it was back then. And what happened was, and what's really interesting is that like some people out there, we just did a talk about, you're talking about content creation, and someone was talking about to me, they're like, you know, should I is now a good time to start a YouTube channel? And I'm like, well, you know, in 2019 when I started my YouTube channel, these were basically these same market conditions.
>> QT was about to end. No, Bitcoin had just topped out. No one cared about crypto. Retail was not here. No one cared. And I started my channel and no one cared for a while and then monetary policy changed and then everything changed. I mean, I do think we're in a bare market. Um, but I could see it, you know, potentially being over as early as May. Um, realistically, I think you have to go into it assuming it it very well easily could take until next October as well, cuz all primary markets have been one year. um with the exception of sort of that intermediate bare market we had in 2019. So I think going into it I think we have to assume macro headwinds going into early 2026 though I do think there will be a a bare market rally in early 2026.
>> What is the reasoning?
>> So normally because think about it like this most people went into Q4 assuming we would have this like massive blowoff top with an all season. Yeah. And so that didn't happen right? We had a high. We had a new all-time high, but it was not really a massive blowoff top. And I think from there, people gave up, right? People have been selling. They're like, "All right, cycle's over." After you have about three months of selling in a bare market, usually you have a counter trend rally. So, if you look at 2021, we had um November, December, and January were all red months. And then in February and March, we had a bare market rally back up to the 200 day moving average and or the 50we moving average. So, I think right now you're you're seeing kind of a lot of selling based on people just being like, "All right, cycle's over." You know, and then I think in early 2026, you're going to have all those people that are going to sell. They're going to be gone in the short term. You're going to be left with the people that are are holding on. And I think it will lead to uh a bare market rally in early 2026. But my guess is it's going to be a lower high by Bitcoin. You could have some divergent higher highs on some alts, though. Like it's possible there there are scenarios where certain cryptocurrencies could go to new all-time highs even though Bitcoin might put in a lower high. Um, but we're not at that point yet. Like I don't think we're in that rally just yet. But we're in a rally right now as I speak to you because we're back at 93K. But I don't think this is the you know I'm not really convinced that this yet is the the big rally to take us back up above, you know, what people think is possible. I think in the short term people have really given up. I think you're going to see some short-term um you know short-term moves back to the downside. But I do think you'll have that that you don't really have you ask me like why, right? But I mean you don't always have to have a reason. Sometimes if everyone starts betting on the downside, then usually there's just a squeeze back up to the upside, you know, and that also happened in 2019 as well. Um, so I I think I think that's what's going to happen. I think you you have downside, you have a counter trend rally into early 2026. It's going to make people think that the cycle's not over and then we're going to have another drop kind of going into into the summer and then that could be the low. Like I'm open-minded to that being the low, but we'll have to see what's going on at the time and and see how far down Bitcoin even is by that point. So,
>> I find it very interesting that you look at numbers all day, but then you're like, "Okay, I want to guess what people would think when they see the numbers and I want to create a strategy around that." But how do you know if your guess is correct?
>> I don't I mean like I I'm telling people what I think's going to happen. I always hedge. I mean like even though I think we're in a bare market, I still do own like both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Um and like there does exist scenario where Ethereum goes to another all-time high. Like it's possible for that to happen. Um but like I think it's important to have a plan. like you know you you like I think what I think and I will base a lot of my strategy around that but I always hedge in case I'm wrong because sometimes I do get things wrong and like when I get it wrong I I don't want to be completely on the wrong side of the market right like having some Bitcoin if we're in a bare market um protects me from potentially falling into the trap of buying into a bare market rally right like if we have a bare market rally in early 2026 and I don't own any Bitcoin it would be easy to then want to FOMO back in at at the next lower high. But if I have some, then I don't really feel like I'm missing out on anything. Like, all right, well, I have some. I'm, you know, I can I can enjoy the ride.
>> Do you ever look at the news?
>> Sometimes, but I don't really base my decisions on the news. Like, I think like it's interesting to know what's happening, but I don't really think the markets are often moving in a in a um in an ongoing way based on the news. I mean, obviously if Trump comes out and tweets something about the crypto markets, like it can have a short-term effect like on that minute candle,
>> but you don't care about that.
>> I don't care about that because I don't a lot of that stuff is just fleeting. Like no one even cares a few month a few days later like people forget and they move on. I don't really think that stuff matters as much.
>> What about all the DAT companies? People are spreading FUD on all the Bitcoin treasury companies. Does that even matter?
>> I mean, I think it's it's nice narratives um to sort of justify like why, you know, why we could have a bare market, right? Um, but the reality is we always have bare markets every four years, you know, like it's just like, yeah, we have bare markets every four years because people get greedy. Some of the treasury companies get greedy. They they end up buying the top. Um, and their cost basis might be over 100k, you know, who knows? Um, and and the way the market punishes them is by going down and and punishing them for being so late. And the people that weren't late can stomach the draw downs. The people that came in this late are going to be punished and they're Yeah. Like not all of them are going to survive. Some of them will go down and and that will be part of the reason for why people say the bare market's happening. But there's always a reason. Um, and you know the winds just change. Like the music doesn't go on forever. The music turns off sometimes and when it turns off the uh the zombie companies go to zero. And and it's a good thing because then it it helps those people that work for those companies to to then go work for other companies that are more beneficial to society, you know. So I mean when the markets go down, um, it just allows the companies that are doing well to to survive and thrive long term and it and it gets rid of all the other froth.
We were talking earlier on stage about your content creation journey and I find it really really interesting. You said you were intentionally making boring thumbnails when you first started. What does that even mean?
>> Yeah, I mean I I didn't want to do the clickbait stuff essentially is I also wanted to attract people that weren't attracted to really clickbaity stuff because I know that clickbait stuff is fleeting and that people want to um feel like they're not being sold something constantly and I just wanted to provide like a boring opinion, you know, and I was like, "All right, I'll match my opinion my boring videos with boring thumbnails." I also just was too lazy to go and find someone to make thumbnails for me. Um, and so the easiest thing to do was just to make the thumbnail be either just a picture of the chart I was going to be talking about or yeah, maybe just putting the title on there in bold yellow letters and just moving on because ultimately what I felt back then was that people valued like what I had to say about certain charts. They valued what I had to say a lot more than just like the thumbnail that got them there in the first place. So in the short term it's hard harder to grow because you're not getting the clickbait people. But in the long term, it's better because you attract the people that are more serious and they're the you attract the people that aren't going to leave when things go south, you know?
>> Yeah.
>> So, clickbait attracts people that will immediately leave. And that's why you have certain channels that have a lot of followers, but when you look at their views,
>> they're not really getting a whole lot of views because most of their followers were achie
>> Yeah. They were bought or achieved through very clickbaity things and um they're gone.
>> So,
>> but I use this analogy. So, thumbnails and your branding is more like the storefront and how do you get people to come in first and then to see that my stuff is good. But yeah, like you said, there's a balance and it's very hard for most people to find that balance.
>> Well, and now I have AI thumbnails, right? So, had I had those a had I had AI back then, I probably would have been using it. A lot of it was just me being lazy and and not wanting to to to spend the time to to create the thumbnail. Um, but also like when I was doing it back in 2019 and 2020, I like I was working as a posttock in, you know, at a national lab. Like I like I wasn't doing YouTube to grow a large audience. I was doing YouTube to just like express some ideas and that was about it. Like I didn't think I would ever have, you know, nearly a million subscribers. I never thought I'd have 10,000 subscribers, you know, like I didn't think people would find it interesting. Um, and then I and then that started to happen and then AI was, you know, AI kind of um hit in what, like 2022 and Chat GPT and and then I started doing the AI thumbnail. So, it's a good mix. Um, but yeah, that's how that's how I got started. Very slow growth at first, but then I think people valued the content.
>> Was it a very wellthoughtout plan? you're like, I want to be boring and this is how I attract these group of people and then
>> this is
>> I don't know. I mean, like I I think I was maybe more like playing checkers rather than chess about it back then. I It was It was like all right, I'm just I'm not going to to do the clickbait style because that's what everyone else is doing. I just want to be different and this is one way that I can distinguish myself and
>> maybe it works, maybe it doesn't.
>> That was when 20
>> 2019 20 2019
>> 2019. Yeah.
>> And a lot of other channels
>> were dead.
>> Yeah. And then also like I saw a lot of people kind of complaining about all the clickbait and stuff and I was like, "All right, well, I'll try to be different and see how it goes." Yeah. And for a long time it didn't go well because no one could find my channel because I wasn't using clickbait stuff, you know. Um, again, it took me six months to go from like zero subscribers to 500 and I was posting, you know, a video or two a week and there was like no growth and then at some point everything changed. Like the algorithms picked me up.
>> Was it like depressing at first? because I have friends that start new channels and they would think it's embarrassing to tell people that, you know, I'm starting to make content now with, let's say, a hundred followers. They don't want to tell people they're doing this.
>> I still don't tell people.
>> But people know people know you.
>> Well, people at conferences know me, but like when I go home
>> Oh, yeah. Yeah.
>> people don't know me. I don't really get recognized hardly ever. Actually, the places I get recognized the most are like children's museums because I take my kids there and then like their dads will often recognize me. Like other kids dads will recognize me or if I go on vacation, I'll get recognized, but that's about it. I don't really get recognized a whole lot.
>> Well, isn't it fun to share with people what you do though?
>> I don't usually tell people
>> at all.
>> No.
>> In real life,
>> I I just say like I have my own company. Um, and it's based around like quantitative finance
>> and and then people stop asking, right? Cuz it's too difficult.
>> Yeah. It's like saying it's like saying like I'm an accountant. Like no one really is like all right whatever you do that. Um, but then every once in a while like I'll be with some friends and then like someone will recognize me in public and they're like what what's going on? Like they have no idea like and then
>> or like I'll be on a channel and someone will recognize me and they're like wait like you have like I saw you on this channel like you know.
>> Um, so that happens. I don't really go into public and try to convince people because what what happens is like you can never convince people to to get in when they should because like it's not cool to buy crypto when when the prices are low. Um, and so they'll ignore you and and then eventually they listen to you but they listen to you they'll be like oh they'll they'll they'll listen to you at a peak. So like they'll ignore you when they should have gotten in, they'll buy at a peak and then they'll blame you after that for the next year. So there's really not like a it's really not a great it's like almost like a lose-lose scenario. So it's like people have to come up people have to figure out for themselves this is what they want to do and and then take on the responsibility. I don't want to be the person out there trying to convince people and then they buy the top and they blame me. Um, so I think that's one of the reasons why I kind of just shy away from it because I used to try to convince people. Yeah.
>> You know and
>> people love you for a very short period of time and they hate you for the bare market year and then they sell and then they wish they hadn't and yeah it's just a brutal cycle. So, what do you say to people when they ask you? If they know what you do, they will ask you.
>> Yeah, I mean, I'll tell them my honest opinion. Like, so if people ask me like now like what they should do, I'm I would say generally we're in a bare market. So, like kind of just expect that for for a little while and um like the winds will probably shift sometime next year, but we're not we're not at that point yet. And and also for the long term, like focus mostly on Bitcoin. look at the valuation of altcoins against Bitcoin, not against the US dollar because if you look at it against Bitcoin, you'll start to understand like why Bitcoin dominance matters and that kind of stuff. Um, so that's what I generally tell people.
>> How do you motivate yourself to post every single day?
>> Yeah, I mean I I mean the markets are always changing like some some things going on in the market, right? Even though there's a bare market, there's always a bull market somewhere. So like even yesterday I posted a video about silver, you know. Um, because I I've been very bullish on commodities for a while like gold, silver, platium, uranium. Um I also like think that if I stop posting then people are going to go somewhere else, you know? So like I want to post because I know there's a lot of people that want to listen to what I have to say or just be updated about the markets in general. And and it's easy to do. Like it doesn't take me a ton of time. Like I don't plan my videos. Like I just I'll be playing chess on my computer and I'll be like, "All right, I guess I'll go make a video."
>> You're joking.
>> Yeah.
>> What?
>> No. Yeah. I don't plan them at all. Like I just I get up, I go to my computer, and I'm like, "All right, what am I going to talk about?" And then I look at the charts. I'm like, "I'll talk about this." And I record it and then I post it all within about 20 minutes or so. Um, because I don't edit them at all.
>> I know.
>> Yeah. Um, so I just do that. It doesn't take a lot of time. Um, it's mostly just about, you know, thinking about where the markets are going and trying to provide an opinion on it. um when I get things wrong trying to be as early as I can be about saying when I'm wrong because the worst thing is if you're wrong doubling down when you are wrong that's the worst thing you know so you have to be you have to be really willing to pivot when you are wrong and I think that actually can distinguish a lot of people like you know certain creators from other creators is like especially if you're making predictions about financial markets which the markets humble everyone the the people that I really respect the most that make predictions are the ones that will admit they're they're wrong about certain things. Um, because they're not trying to like pretend there's something they're not, you know, like I mean a lot of people say I've get a lot of things right and I mean I think I've gone on a kind of like a I got a lucky streak for for the last couple years or so, but the reality is like I do get things wrong and I'll be wrong in the future. And um, you know, we have to remind ourselves that like no one actually knows what's happening. You know, like I think we're in a bare market. Maybe I'm wrong. maybe Bitcoin goes to new high and and if it does like I'll be happy actually, you know, because at least I held on to some of it, you know. Um, yeah, I mean I think I think the motivation to keep posting is is to just be like, you know what, there's still people that are interested in what I have to say, so this is my job.
I heard somebody said the best way to build like a cult following is to stick to what you've said. Never admit you're wrong. I disagree with that wholeheartedly and I know a lot of people that do that and honestly like I know some people that do it that have been really successful even politicians that that never admit when they're wrong and I don't know like I don't agree with it. I think integrity is a big thing and I think people respect when you are willing to admit you're wrong because it kind of reminds you that hey like you're human you know you're not perfect. They shouldn't think that you're perfect. They really shouldn't put you up on a pedestal. Um, and I I think like I think if you never admit you're wrong, people the people that follow you over a long enough period of time, like they'll realize what you're doing and that will detract from your brand. Um, so it's better to just admit you're wrong and take ownership of it.
>> Have you ever said something online that you know you later realize it's wrong and then you apologize?
>> With financial markets, the first thing is no one knows what's going to happen, right? So, like we're all going to get things wrong. I don't know if you have to like I don't know if I have to apologize if I get things wrong because like I'm already kind of saying upront, hey, like I could be wrong about this.
>> Um, but I think you have to admit that you're wrong. Like if you say something
>> and it doesn't happen, you have to come out and be like, all right, I was wrong about that. Rather than pretending like it doesn't happen.
>> Yeah.
>> Um, so and and the the the if I ever make shorter term predictions, those are more likely to be wrong than longer term predictions. Um, so and that happens more frequently. Like sometimes I'll branch out and be like, "All right, this is what I think is going to happen in the short term and those are more likely to be wrong because in the short term you could argue that markets follow geometric brownie in motion, like a random walk, which is completely unpredictable."
>> Um, so I don't really think you need to apologize for being wrong, but I think you need to admit when you are because, you know, there's people that really showed Luna a lot last cycle and US and and talking about that kind of stuff or Celsius or Voyager or FTX, like all these different platforms. And I think if you know, I think that's a good reason to sort of say, "Hey, I'm sorry. I was wrong." And then you move on. like it doesn't mean you can't recover from it, but if you don't ever admit you're wrong um or apologize, I think you you will lose like the trust of a lot of people. And it's it's so hard. Like it can be really hard to to apologize. Um, but I do think it's important and kind of like repairing relationships with the people that watch you.
You have to really use or really believe in what you use or promote,
>> right? You have to do your due diligence. You have to believe in it. You can't just because it's easy to take money if you were financially incentivized to do that. If you were paid to do it, um you are kind of taking on responsibility, right? You I feel like it's hard to just be like, "Oh, no, I don't have any responsibility."
>> That's why I think it's more like more okay to that's why it's more justified to apologize for those things. But if you're just providing an opinion that's not paid for, you know, you're allowed to have an opinion. You're allowed to be wrong about things. You know, we all be wrong.
>> You also talk about silver and um metals and stuff. H how how does that relate to crypto?
>> Well, I mean there's just always a bull market somewhere and I think like as content creators like the the one thing that will never go away is people that want to invest to make money. Yeah.
>> Right. Whether it's crypto, commodities, stocks, bonds, whatever money market account, T bills, right? People always want to make money. Um, and there's always a bull market somewhere. So, when you're in a period like we're we are we've been in for the last year or so where the crypto markets aren't really moving, there's only so many times I can say the same thing, you know, or I'm like, "All right, there's people get that Bitcoin has been at 100K for the last year." And they get that, yeah, maybe we're in a bare market, but like maybe they still have money they want to put somewhere. They maybe they don't want to put it in Bitcoin right now because they also believe it's a bare market. They want to put it somewhere else. So then that's why I talk about other things like there's there's a bull market somewhere at all times and it's just figuring out where those bull markets are. To me it doesn't matter if it's ticker ABC or DEF like it doesn't matter. It's you know why does it matter if you make 20% on on Bitcoin versus silver or gold or uranium or Ethereum it doesn't matter at the end of the day. It's just you're making money. That's why like people will say like with the whole Bitcoin dominance like you're a toxic Bitcoin maxi you know is what I heard. I was like, I don't like I'm just trying to preserve my wealth, right? And like I'd rather hold Bitcoin than than it's like a micro cap altcoin for the next four years. Yeah. You know, so it's not about being a maxi. It's just about preserving wealth over the long haul.
>> So from what you're saying, it is a bull market in silver.
>> Yeah, it's been a bull market in metals for a while. But I do think my general thought process is that is that metals will probably cool off a little bit in 2026. Um, but I do think they'll continue to do well for the rest of the decade is my guess. A lot of times metals are in like decade long bull markets. Um, silver just broke through its prior all-time highs from like 2011. Um, I could see it getting a pullback below those, you know, back down in uh, 2026, but ultimately I think they will go higher um, as we go as we go further on. gold gold normally does well during exact market conditions like this when you know especially prefed printing you know like with inflation and and all that stuff people flock to hard assets and you know commodities are are something that you can't just print you know you can't just go print gold um, you can mine more of it right you can you can do that but you can't just go print it and so that's one of the reasons why >> metals do well during times like this and especially during times of uncertainty because risk assets really hate uncertainty and there's been a lot of uncertainty um in the last year.
I find it very interesting that people have been talking about uh gold and metal because to the younger generation those are like the boring stuff, the old people's stuff. But it's uh trendy again.
>> That's because prices are going up.
>> Exactly. And if >> while gold has these characteristics of being scarce and all that, it's been like that forever. Why is it only happening now? because gold went through a massive bull market in the 2000s like and so like I was born in 1990 and so during the last major gold bull market like I was a kid you know I was 10 years old when it started and by the time it was over in 2011 I was 21 like I wasn't really an investor and so I think a lot of us are products of our experience and so I graduated like I mean I I graduated undergrad in 2012 And so, ever since I've really been investing, all we've ever known is that risk assets outperform commodities. You know, like we've seen Bitcoin outperform gold for forever basically. Um, and then you have people like Peter Schiff who are speaking, you know, here at the conference who, you know, you you have to think like why do they have these opinions? Like why do they think that like commodities are are where to be and they can be wrong. I mean, you know, they can be wrong for years and years and years. It doesn't mean they're always going to be wrong. And the reason they're so opinionated is the same reason that we are so opinionated about Bitcoin is because we we saw it go up for a decade, more than a decade. He's seen gold go up in the 2000s. He probably also saw it go up in the 70s and the 80s when we had inflationary, you know, issues. So he knows that it's only a matter of time before gold, you know, outperforms risk assets. like he knows it's only a matter of time and that's why you can he can sit up there and and say very confidently it's going to happen and as long as he has at least a 10-year time horizon like he's going to eventually be right.
>> Um, so I think that's one of the reasons I think a lot of people have a hard time especially my age kind of like accepting that commodities are are in the bull market and cryptos in a bear is because like they've never really seen that environment but it doesn't mean those environments never exist. they do exist and it's exactly that type of environment that will then make those people probably a little bit more diversified in the future and then they'll be like the old people they're like oh why do you have to have gold in the per you know trying to convince the younger generation of like you know diversifying somewhat um so I I'm trying like it's I can look at a chart and look at Bitcoin be like all right it generally goes up and to the right but I can also look at gold and see that every 20 30 years it has a massive bull market And I don't want to just sit here and and ignore it just because it's like, you know, something that only old people own. I'd rather kind of like respect what the what the data says. And if I think gold's going to go up, then I want it in my portfolio.
People can argue that we have a new form of gold. So the history is not going to repeat itself.
>> You talking about Bitcoin? Yes. Yeah. I I don't see I disagree with that. Like I Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. It does not trade like a riskoff asset. It never has. Maybe it will at some point, but it's never traded as a riskoff asset. It's traded like a levered version of the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ's up over 100%. Bitcoin went up like 700% since 2022. That's why Bitcoin drops a lot more in bare markets because it goes up a lot more in bull markets.
>> Um, it's not a bad thing that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset because over the long haul, risk assets tend to do better. There there's more times of risk-on environments than riskoff environments, right? You'll have periods where gold outperforms, but there's longer periods where stocks outperform and risk assets outperform. So, it's not a bad thing that Bitcoin is a is a risk on asset. It it does not trade like gold at all. And um, and I mean, you look at the last year, like I mean, if Bitcoin traded like gold, it would be up a lot more
>> because gold's up a lot. Bitcoin's down. So, I mean, that's kind of clear evidence that they they they're not really correlated and they're inversely correlated over, you know, probably longer periods of time. I It depends on it depends on what you're looking at. I mean, if you look at it from, you know, from when Bitcoin started to now, like they've both gone up. So, in a sense that you could say they're positively correlated, but over certain time frames, like risk off versus risk on, like there's times where they're completely inversely, they're negatively correlated, where one goes up, the other goes down.
I think you're right about us never seeing gold outperform these stocks and like Bitcoin and stuff. So it is very hard for us to understand which leads to people saying that during very scary moments in the world like in the history something bad really bad has to happen for these you know gold silver to go up
>> and people are expecting something really bad is going to happen soon la is your view
>> I think there's still some runway for the AI um stuff I mean like I don't know exactly when the music's going to stop. I mean, it probably will stop at some point. I mean, it's a natural progression of the business cycle. Um, there there's a I could see a scenario where PAL is replaced as chair. They put someone in, they lower rates, they reignite the animal spirits. Like, that's possible. Um, that could even lead to attention back on crypto maybe in 2027, 2028 time frame. But eventually I think they will have to face the music of like you can't just lower rates and print money to solve our problems forever because if you do the the the bond vigilantes are going to come back there like rates are going to go up. You know longend rates are going to go up. I think at some point over the next like two to three years the music will stop um and there will be a big crash. But I also think it's like a complete fool's errand to try to time that. Like you can't time it. There's not it's not worth trying to time. Most people just make fools of themselves trying to time it.
>> So, I think for now, for me, for for crypto in general, like I'm just going to stick to this to this cycle behavior and eventually it'll break. Um, and when it breaks, I'll admit I'm wrong. But until that time, just if it's not broke, don't fix it. It's like the uh, the four-year cycle is not even unique to Bitcoin. Um, if you look at the stock market in the ' 60s, '7s, and early 80s, it was a four-year cycle. there were major lows in the stock market in 1966, 1970, 74,78 and 82. Every four years there was a major low and then you would have gone into ' 86 thinking, all right, we're going to have a major low in ' 86 and then we didn't. It we ended up having it in ' 87 instead.
>> Um, so you could argue the four-year cycle has existed before Bitcoin.
Why it could be based on presidential cycles, right? um if Bitcoin's havingss had been put in midterm years instead of instead of election years like you know we probably would have seen completely different moves like Bitcoin maybe would have bottomed around the having and then we would have said oh it bottoms always at the having instead of being halfway through a bull market in the having so I think that's the reason um but I do think the four-year cycle will break eventually um I'm just not going to be the person calling for it to you know like when it breaks it breaks and then we we kind of adjust our views but until that time I think if it's not broke don't fix it and you're going to be right more often than you're going to be wrong.
Ben, thank you so much for being on the show. By the way, you you look amazing today.
>> This is the first
>> I don't dress up very frequently.
>> Who made you do this?
>> I I I did it myself, believe it or not.
>> I love it. I love it. It matches your eye color and everything. Thank you.
>> Thank you so much for being on on the show.
>> Yeah. Thanks for having me. Pleasure to be here his eyes.