He Beat Wall Street Using a Strategy Anyone Can Copy | Chris Camillo

Every dollar in your life is potentially worth $100 in the future. Most professional investors are so caught up in the noise.

That's probably the single most important skill that we have moving into the AI age is being able to recognize patterns. And not everybody can do that.

There is no such thing as a trade that is a sure thing. Probably my highest conviction trade that didn't work out wiped out a third of my liquid net worth.

Most people think that there's risk with investing. So if I don't invest, I don't have risk. You'll probably end up in the worst scenario if you're completely resilient to taking risk in your life.

I think I saw some of your content talking about doing some trades against Bitcoin.

I've had the same thesis for about 10 years. I'm not sure it ever will change.

What's one prediction for 2030, it's about 4 years away that most people will think is absolutely crazy.

We are going to see so much traction in

All right, Chris. So, uh, let's kick this thing off. I've watched a bunch of videos of you. Uh, you've been making a lot of calls that have been right over the years. You've been audited. You've made a lot of money through non-traditional ways. I'm excited to get into that, but give me a 60-second version of sort of how you've built your career, why it's different, and how it works.

Yeah, I for the most part, I've just found opportunity and thinking differently and taking a different approach uh to business and investing. So, you know, it all started back when I was a kid looking at places that other investors weren't looking, right? So, I established just kind of a methodology I now call social arbitrage investing, which is essentially trying to be smart in a different way than Wall Street. Uh, and it really entails trying to surface change in the world uh quickly. uh whether that's like change in consumer behavior or culture or technology or politics, it really doesn't matter where the change is, but with change comes opportunity. So when you see the world changing, you try to connect the dots between that change and sectors or companies that would either benefit or be harmed by that change. Now, sometimes those companies are publicly traded and there's an opportunity to trade stocks. Sometimes they're private. It makes it a little more difficult.

Mhm. Sometimes you'll end up starting a company to take advantage of that shift because you see that there's really no one monetizing that change and there's an opportunity to actually start something from scratch. But it all starts with learning how to observe the world critically and to surface change and just see it as it's happening in real time before others see it and then connecting dots. So like none of that entails a tremendous amount of fundamental you know investment analysis where you have to have a financial pedigree. It doesn't really entail technical trading which is fun for a few people but I think most people are really intimidated by that. It's defin neither of those worlds are for me. Yeah. And so I kind of found this new way to think about investing. And I firmly believe it's the optimal way to kind of gain alpha on Wall Street and other investors. And I just think it's so cool because anybody can do it. Doesn't really matter what your background is. You could be a kid, you could be retired, you could be man, female, right? It it really doesn't matter who you are or what your job is. You just got to watch the world unfold and connect dots.

Yeah. Yeah. And that's really all that I've done for like 20 plus years both in public and private markets and for myself and my own businesses.

You said it's something that anybody could do because it's not deep financial analysis. It's not technical analysis. Anybody could do it. But then you said it's just connecting dots. And so while you brush over that, that's probably the single most important skill that we have moving into the AI age is being able to recognize patterns. And not everybody can do that. uh the the it seems like uh the technical schooling that we've received have taken that ability away from people and so the ability to connect dots and see those patterns isn't something everybody has but uh I want to dig more into that but let's just go back because your story starts at like 13 years old you were going to 7-Eleven and you saw some pattern there that you were able to take advantage of.

Yeah, I was a bit of an odd kid. I was uh you know grinding at age 13. Uh interested in money and making it big. Uh back in the day that was not like a cool thing to do. Today it is like teenagers now they're trading crypto, they're trading stocks and like they're they have side hustles and like that's part of the culture of being like a kid.

It definitely wasn't back in the day back in the 90s. So, um, for me it was I would buy and sell and arbitrage products at garage sales. I had realized that most garage sales and estate sales were being run in price by older women. And they were great at pricing like silver and female oriented products and items, but really bad at pricing anything that was male oriented. Um, so whether it was a watch, uh, whether it was like an old fan, like anything that was odd, they just discarded it. And I would look for those items at sales, buy them, and then resell them to dealers that specialize in that particular item.

This is pre eBay, of course, so it was kind of tough to do, but also no one was doing it. Now there's like a million people doing this with Gary Vee talking stuff, right? So, I would start every morning getting Snapple iced tea at this local 7-Eleven just because I was, you know, had caffeine. Just how I started like at 5:00 a.m. before I it hit the sales. And one morning I realized that, you know, the Snapple was reduced by like 75%. So, instead of two refrigerators was like half of one. Spoke to the clerk who's like, "Yeah, there's more competing brands now." I think it was like Arizona Iced Tea and a couple others. He's like, "This is how it's going to be from now on." So, my older brother was a stock broker. I was like, "Can I make money off of this?" It's like, well, I mean, you could short Snapple. And he taught me how to short it. He bought some puts. I gave him $300, which is all the money I had from garage sales at the moment.

Sure enough, it was the first time in the history of Snapple, which was like the hottest company in the stock market, that they had missed earnings. And this happened like a few weeks after I made that bet because inventory was building up in the channel because retailers like 7-Eleven were giving them less shelf space than they were previously because of new competition. What's so crazy about that is like anyone in the world could have seen that. Certainly like if you're working on Wall Street, you could have seen it, right? Like the same thing that I saw. But most professional investors, institutional investors are so caught up in the noise, uh so caught up in the herd mentality that sometimes they just can't see very simple things that are right in front of their face. Yeah.

And like something clicked at that moment. I was like, "Wow, I can do this as a kid." Now of course like I then went on a long string of learning all the investment analyses and trying everything else which failed for me over many many years.

Yeah.

And then eventually in my 20s came back to that style of investing that worked when I was a kid. You know I coined it social R wrote a book about it. Uh three years after I started I became the top rank investor in the world on a portfolio tracking service called covestor. Got a book deal. um and just never stopped and I've been doing it ever since. I think I'm on year 18 of social arb investing and I'm kind of somewhere north of 70%ish audited annualized uh portfolio returns average over an 18-year period which is just obviously almost

better than the goat Stanley Draen Miller.

Yeah. Well, you know, to be fair, my account has stayed relatively small in the seven to eight figure range over that time. So I'm not having to manage, you know, a billion dollars. Yeah. And most of the profits I make every year between taxes, bills, and then I reinvest them in private companies, which was actually probably a mistake. I'm in about 160 private companies where I generate like average returns as opposed to 70 plus% returns. So if I would have known that I could have kept out that type of performance in public markets, I would have never pulled money out to put them in privates. I thought privates where you make the big money.

Yeah. And uh but yeah, it's been quite a run. I'm going to try to do it for a few more years. I have fun with it. Yeah. Now like a lot of people do it, which is cool because like social orb investing has become a thing like fundamental investing or technical and that was kind of always my dream that other people would pick up on this.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's a simple concept. So it's the principles are few but the methods are many. So the the principles recognizing price discrepancy or the arbitrage as you said. I remember as a kid and and you're absolutely right like the kid the life my kids have today is just so different. Back when I was a kid it was like you just middle class and you had like one pair of shoes and a couple pairs of jeans and like there wasn't we didn't have trillions of dollars being printed and floating around the economy and you didn't think about money as much. But I remember my my mom taking us to uh my sisters and I, we lived by the school and we would go to um I think it was like Sam's Club or Price Club back then and we could buy candy in bulk and then we'd set up a little table out front of the house and as the kids came by school we just sell it and we just arb the difference, right?

Um so it's like those those those are there all the time

but you can take it to a different level I guess is kind of what you're saying. Now we have a lot of tools. So you're talking about social arb. So is that more like using social media? You've talked about like using Tik Tok, like how you're using Tik Tok to sort of see what that's doing.

Yeah. So, it doesn't necessarily have to be social media, but that's where it works best. And I started doing this kind of preocial media, similar to the way Peter Lynch did it in the 80s. You go to the mall, you just observe. You observe what people are doing, what they're buying, what they're talking about. But your universe of information is like really small. Now, we have social media, right? And all the world's conversations have become digital. So simply reading the world's conversations in real time to me is like the most golden alpha you'll ever get because Wall Street historically leans on transactional data sets to get an edge on retail investors like us. They spend millions of dollars on credit card data, swipe data. So maybe a couple weeks before earnings, they kind of have a sense of how a brand's doing or how a company's doing. Well, what do people do before they purchase something? They talk about it. They talk about things that they want. They talk about things that they like, things that they hate. What what are they doing that day? Where are they going? What are they buying? Um what's on their wish list? So, there is no data that gives you um an an edge that's closer to real time than conversational data. The problem is it's a little noisy. It's hard to interpret. You have to really get accustomed to like when people use words like obsessed, those are good signals, but how many people does it take to say that? Like words like sold out everywhere are good kind of indicators that a product is starting to sell out. Does Wall Street know that yet? So if you're social media is essentially the entire world talking in real time and that happens in the comments of videos and Tik Tok just happens to be the social media platform where people are most transparent and open and raw and they're not trying to present a fake version of themselves like Instagram.

So it's kind of the gold mine. Um, it's not just watching the videos, but again, it's like the comments in the videos because the video can be a content creator, it could be an influencer, they might be getting paid, uh, they might have a bias, but 3,000 comments, that's where it gets really interesting. And if you start seeing the same thing over and over again, said in different ways by different types of people, you can really catch on to like a a shift that's happening, whether it's a shift in brand preference or fashion or culture, uh buying behavior, um interest, uh it's all happening in real time on social media.

Yeah. I was at a conference a year ago up in LA and I met somebody who's setting up these Tik Tok shops all across Canada and the US and so like whatever is trending they'll just make the product and then they have these like retail shops that just sell trending Tik Tok stuff on there and just sort of like follow the trend like that. I thought that was pretty interesting.

It's the same exact concept. So a lot of the guys that do that um are essentially looking for change. When they see it, they're identifying how they can monetize it through the creation of businesses that sell things. Mhm.

I'm doing the same thing. I'm just doing it with trading, right? So, I'm looking I'm only looking at the change where it's generally applying to at least one or more publicly traded companies that I can monetize through a trade.

Yeah. So, let's talk about it in like uh more practical terms. So, here we are Friday of this week, maybe earlier this week, Monday, Tuesday, you were probably on TikTok going through this. Uh what did you see? What were you looking at? And did you take any action based off of that? Yeah. So, the the top of the funnel is really big. I spend almost every night spending some amount of time reading Tik Tok comments. Occasionally, quite often it's like four hours a night. Um, most of the time I don't find anything and sometimes when I do find something, you know, it doesn't meet all the criteria to actually become a trade. So, the thing that I find might not be big enough needle mover for any one company. uh it might not be the most important thing happening at any one company. Uh it might be something that is interesting but is already widely known by other investors, right? So you have to kind of go through this process um to assess is there an actual trade here. So, I mean, one of the more recent ones is kind of a fun one. Uh, over the past couple of months there, you know, this little squishy toys that kind of come in and out of trends every couple of years. Uh, there's a new one. Well, it's not really new. It's been around a while, but it just happened to go viral on Tik Tok and it has taken over the world by storm. It's now like the number one and tube toy on Amazon, and it's called Neato. So, it's just kind of like a gel squishy. Mhm.

But they do a better job with the texture of it. It's just more firm than other squishies. So, it has like a better impact on your like your stress control, right? So, like they're sold out

everywhere. Okay.

Um, and this Neato squishy toy is made by a very tiny private company. That private company is owned by a publicly traded holding company >> and it equates to about six and a half% of the publicly traded holding company's net asset value because that holding company only makes money from dividends and from interest payments of the 26 companies it owns. So you have to ask yourself, okay, it's about 6 12% of this company. If the sales triple, which I think they can easily this year, if the trend maintains over the next few months, especially if it maintains into this holiday season, that could be a really impactful moment for this boring holding company that essentially never has a company that goes trendworthy like this, right?

And it could potentially impact this company uh by 20 to 40%. Which is huge, right? So that's just kind of one example of something that you see on Tik Tok and there's actually a publicly traded company that could benefit from it.

Yeah. So then you find something that's trending and as you said, as we kind of talked about with the Tik Tok store, some people might go, "Hey, maybe I should sell squishies." So you could try that. Maybe find them on Alibaba, ship them over here, sell them that way. Um or find the company who's making them. Maybe do do they need to sort of have like uh some sort of like IP or some sort of dominance? Like it's not easy to rip them off for them to for for you to go to the next stage of of of research. All right, stop what you're doing right now and book your travel to come join me in Las Vegas for the Bitcoin conference. It's the biggest event of the year. The one I look forward to the most every single year. Literally, my entire year calendar is set around it. It's the biggest event, the most culturally relevant event happening in the world. the top politicians, the top bankers, the top investors, the top entertainers, everybody's going to be there. So, come check it out. April 27th through the 29th. Use my code, Mark Moss, to save 10%. And if you use my code to save 10%, send me a message on social media or email and I'll invite you to a private party I'm having at the event and I'll see you there.

Not necessarily. Right. So that could be the situation, but at some point people are going to try to rip them off. They kind of already are. Yeah. But this company has a lot of reputation. They have massive distribution. So and if the sector stays really hot, even if there are competitors,

you know, they don't have to stay on trend for two years, right? They stay on trend for six to nine months. And that's a real needle mover for them. So,

you know, but that's part of the risk. Part of the risk is that they can't make enough to take advantage of all the demand.

And meanwhile, other knockoff companies will come in with replica products and this company that makes neato is never going to really have an opportunity to fully monetize this moment that they're having.

Yeah,

it's part of the risk. It's something that an investor we need to look into. So, you know, riskreward. There was an article that I read a few months ago from Jeff Park and he said roughly the end of the value investor and the rise of the ideological investor and he was basically saying now the Benjamin Graham value investors is out. It's been gone for a while and now we have investors that are more ideological driven. So like Budweiser does like a Dylan Mainy thing, the stock plummets or um you know Sydney Sweeney does the Great Jeans and then their stock price goes up. And so we see people being driven different from that. Is that similar like looking at like what market sentiment is saying or is that something different than what you're observing?

It's all part of it.

Part of it.

Anything that has potential to be meaningful to a publicly traded company matters as a social arb investor.

Okay. So sometimes it's something that happens to a product or a brand that is going to drive a company's revenue up or drive their cost up. Uh but sometimes it's it's a perception thing. It's something that's going to put the company in a different light uh of customers. People are going to perceive that company as being better now than they were in the past. Even if it doesn't necessarily move the needle of their revenue, that's all that actually matters. Yeah.

So, does it move the revenue needle? Does it move the cost needle? Or does it move the perception needle? It really doesn't matter. Um, as long as it's going to have an impact on that company that will ultimately lead to people either buying the stock or selling the stock because of that thing.

Yeah.

As a as a social investor, that's all you care about.

Yeah.

Right. Like you don't have to care if the thing is real. So if you have a situation where you determine that this trend is actually not going to move the needle for the company, but you also determine that other investors will believe it will move the needle. Then that's a trade opportunity to buy it. Other investors are going to think it's going to move the needle. You know, they inflate the stock. You don't really believe in it long term. So, you know, you exit as other investors, you know,

make their bets. So there are lots of ways to play these things.

Sure. Um, tell us about maybe one of your biggest biggest wins that maybe happened really fast. That was explain and exciting.

You know, God, I've had uh you know, I've had a lot of wins over the years. I've had about I don't know 70 wins over 18 years, I think is what I kind of counted. 70 big wins. You know, some of them,

which actually sounds kind of like a low number over such a long period.

It is. It's just a handful of high conviction trades every year. Yeah,

that that really matter. I mean, you know, some of them are like listen, you identify something like cloud computing in the early days, right? I was a technology founder. So, I was building technology companies and in the earliest days of AWS, we were using AWS at one of my companies and my business partner told me this is going to absolutely change the entire uh technology world. Yeah. And we were monitoring the mention frequency of the word cloud computing in AWS on technology forums like on Reddit and other places and we were seeing a massive acceleration in engineers having conversations around potentially migrating their company uh to the cloud primarily through AWS. So made a major investment in Amazon, right? And that was already like one of the world's biggest companies. So, it doesn't have to be something really niche and small. Sometimes it's something really big. If you go all the way back to my earliest days, uh, investing, even a company like Apple, the earliest days of the iPhone, you know, people in New York, which is where most of Wall Street was at the time, weren't able to really use the uh, the iPhone in year one because it only came on AT&T. and AT&T had terrible data coverage in Manhattan. So basically, nobody owned an iPhone in Manhattan year 1 for the most part.

And if you're an institutional investor, it didn't really seem like they were getting the traction that they were because your friends, your colleagues generally weren't using iPhones for that reason.

And Blackberry dominated the business that

it still. So there were a lot of factors. Correct.

So there was an opportunity to arb what other people weren't seeing. Same thing with Tesla. If you didn't actually drive a Tesla in the mid to late 201s, you probably didn't fully grasp the magic that was part of the EV movement and you didn't really understand how big and fast that movement was coming, right? And you just had to experience it. So these are all like ARB opportunities because you were able to see something or experience something sooner than someone else. Uh even last year, you know, one of my biggest trades was Nvidia, which seems like, oh, everybody knew about Nvidia, but there was a 10- week span where something really interesting was happening with Nvidia almost every week. Like when Trump and the administration went over to the Middle East, you know, I probably did 50 hours of work on Nvidia. the week prior and it became very obvious to me based on signals that were coming out that there was going to be a large deal announced in the Middle East to basically adopt Nvidia chips in data centers in exchange for things that were being given to the US. Yeah.

And there was so much noise in the market at the time, tariff noise, uh noise around geopolitics that people just missed this very obvious thing. Well, he goes to the Middle East, the data center deal gets announced, and video pops. Yeah. And that there was some there was a storyline like that every week where if you weren't consumed by all the noise in the market, it was something that anyone could have uncovered and realized there's a high probability that this narrative is going to result in increased interest in a company like Nvidia.

Yeah.

During that time period.

So there's a million of them.

What was one of your highest conviction ones that didn't work out? So, probably my highest conviction trade that didn't work out wiped out a third of my liquid net worth in a few months prior to when the pandemic started. It was a company uh that owned uh Burger King, Popeye's uh and Tim Hortons in Canada. And I had a very strong thesis on Burger King and Popeye's because of the crispy chicken sandwich which had just come out at Popeye's. Okay.

And the Impossible Burger had just come out at Burger King. And I was doing a massive amount of research into both. And it was wild because I had come to the determination that both Popeye's and Burger King were both to have two of the best quarters in the history of the company, which is a massive anomaly, right? But Tim Hortons was actually the majority of revenue for that holding company. And because of that and and it was more difficult to do research on Tim Hortons because there wasn't a whole lot happening at the company. They were Canadian.

I just made an assumption that Tim Hortons was likely just to have a normal quarter. There was nothing really meaningful there that would move the needle for them. And so it seemed like a complete no-brainer. Two of the three companies were going to have the best quarters ever.

Yeah. one of the other the other company that was like 50 some odd percent of the holding co was more likely than not just to have a normal quarter.

Yeah,

that didn't happen. Right. Tim Hortons ended up having a disastrous quarter. Uh in fact, they had made some changes which were almost impossible to detect. Unfortunately, I I didn't know that they were having a share uh a franchisee meeting for Tim Hortons in Florida that I could have gone to. And if I would have gone to that franchisee meeting a few weeks before earnings, I would have seen hundreds of the most concerned, angry franchisee owners of Tim Hortons that all flew down from Canada and they were like going to war with the company because of all these changes that had taken place that were impacting their revenue. Well, that ultimately came out on earnings. And because Tim Hortons was such a big part of the company, even though Burger King and Popeye's had spectacular quarters, the stock actually went down and I lost 100% of my levered options bet on that trade, which was about onethird of my liquid net worth at the time, which is catastrophic. Painful,

catastrophic,

painful,

very painful. But there's always things that like there's things that you know you don't know and there's things that you don't know that you don't know. And there is no such thing as a trade that is a sure thing.

Yeah.

Because there are always risk factors and you just have to understand that going into every trade.

Yeah. Let's talk about the risk factor for for a minute. Um because I've heard you say that uh without the ability to take risk, you're not going to make any money. something I've said that I think the what I what I've observed is probably the single greatest ingredient to success is not your background or your education, it's your ability to take risk. So, kind of the same thing. But how do you balance the need for needing to take risk, as you said, you're not going to make money without the risk with what Warren Buffett would call the first two rules of investing and not losing money?

Yeah. I I mean I don't understand how to be an uh how to generate outsize returns without losing meaningful capital uh on the way occasion. It's it's a

I haven't figured out how to do it. Um, but I think if you're willing uh to take high conviction bets that are well researched over time and you're willing to utilize leverage, uh you will have bad times, but the good times far outweigh the bad times

because they're asymmetric returns.

Absolutely. They're asymmetric. So you listen I think what Warren Buffett did the time that he did it I think I think his story is more complex than people understand. You know, Warren Buffett wasn't just sitting there trading the stock market with public info, right? Like we all are, right? Warren Buffett was incredibly intelligent, incredibly resourceful, and he basically maximized the opportunity that he had during his day to make investments that made sense at that time.

Yeah. I'm not sure the methodology and and it's been kind of proven out obviously with with return data over the past couple decades has been as successful today. Right. Right. Even with all of the massive amounts of access that his firm

direct to the governments.

Yeah. That no one else has. When you have that type of access and that type of information,

you should be hitting it out of the park consistently

forever, right? Yeah. Um, so you know that said I I don't really think Warren Buffett is a good metric anymore uh for how to generate outsiz returns especially if you're a retail investor in 2026 and beyond.

Yeah. I mean obviously Warren Buffett's lost a lot of money uh and you can look I referenced the goat Stanley Ducken Miller you know the greatest of all time 30 years without a losing year but he lost plenty of positions along the way. So, um, I I think, you know, while that's that's a good cliche thing to say, the reality is everybody loses money. You're going to put money out, you're going to lose it. I think overall, try not to lose the farm necessarily on it, right? Don't die. um when uh Tony Robbins I listened to him you know he's written now three or four books on on finance and investing and he's interviewed you know 50 of the biggest billionaires in the world and he said the single biggest ingredient for those people's success is that they invest for asymmetric returns so that they you know Paul Tudtor Jones theory which is like hey I'm going to I won't invest in something unless I have a five to one odds so I could lose four of those and I could still make the return and so I think kind of what you're saying is you you're you're betting big for big asymmetric upside and you lose a couple along the way, but that's limited to the one-time downside. Well, unless you're using a lot of leverage on your options, but then when you hit those big, then you get those big outsiz returns.

Yeah. I mean, it all comes down to understanding probabilities and outcomes.

Yeah.

And yeah, that's that's a huge part of it. Um, there is no trade that has like 100% probability of a good outcome. So, if you're in a trade that has an 80% chance that you think you have high conviction of a good outcome and 20% chance of a bad outcome, that's a great trade. Uh, or even if you think it's 50/50, but if the good outcome will generate 3x or 4x and the bad outcome will simply wipe you out, that's also a great trade. So, I do think it's exceptionally important to take to really just understand what those probabilities look like on every trade that you make because often asymmetric

opportunities are out there. They definitely are out there. But the way that our mind works is

it will naturally go to a place where we overweight the risk. And because of that, people are just simply generally not willing to take risk even when the riskreward is in their favor.

That's something that I preach all the time. And I think a great way to fix that is by bucketing your money better so that you actually have varying degrees of risk capital that are bucketed to take risk. Yeah. So that you're not secondguessing yourself when you make a 50/50 bet where you 50% chance you lose all your money, but 50% chance you make four times your money, right?

That's a bet you have to take every time, but you can't take that bet

with everything

with everything, right? Like you need to have allocated capital

for those sorts of like riskreward scenarios,

right?

It's really it's key and people most people don't understand that. Yeah, because in that scenario, you you use a bucket allocation and you do five of those investments and you lose two of them or you lose three of them, you're still going to come out ahead. I also think that most people think that there's risk with investing. So, if I don't invest, I don't have risk. So, you know, if I just stick to my 401k allocations on my paycheck, there's no risk in that. Um, but if I do some other types of investing, there's too much risk there as opposed to realizing that there's always risk in both of those scenarios. And if I just go to my 401k allocation and I'm in a 6040 portfolio and I average 6 and a half% return, like I'm going to lose to inflation, that's guaranteed. And there's no way to mitigate that risk. But if I take on some of these additional strategies, yes, it does increase my risk, but also return increases my return profile, but I can mitigate a lot of that risk like you said by bucketing and things like that. And so I think people think too linear. So like ah that's too risky as opposed to thinking well what are the risks and then how could I mitigate around those?

I'm not sure if you agree with that but I

I I 100% agree with you. I mean, I think the concept of taking risk and bucketing money for risk capital is one of the most important lessons that any human can learn. It's one of the biggest mistakes that people make. Um, and you absolut situation you'll ever be in

because you can't mitigate it.

You can't mitigate it. And just think about it with every other part of your life, right? Like you don't if you don't take risk in your personal life, you might not end up with any friends. You might not ever end up with a significant other. You might not ever end up with a job. Like you just might end up in the you'll probably end up in the worst scenario of any human if you're completely resilient to taking risk in your life. Yeah. And it's absolutely no different when it comes to investing. Yeah. It's probably more important with investing than anything else in your life.

So, as somebody who's bet big u big as for for asymmetric returns and you've lost big, as you said, a third of your portfolio at once, um what are some of your basic frameworks that you think about for bucketing and and for that risk mitigation? Hey, look, you've you've worked hard to build your Bitcoin stack, but if it's still sitting on an exchange, it's not really yours. You see, the exchange holds the keys to your Bitcoin. Now, if they freeze withdraws, if they get hacked, they go under your Bitcoin, it could disappear overnight. Even if you've moved it into a single cold wallet, you're still exposed. Now, that would be one device, one point of failure. If anything bad were to happen, you could lose your Bitcoin. Now, that's why I use Unchained. Their collaborative custody vault gives me the best of both worlds. I hold my keys, but my security doesn't depend on just one of them. Now, this is where security and sovereignty actually meet. You see, Unchained's collaborative custody Bitcoin vaults use a two of three multi-IG model, which means that you hold two keys and Unchained holds one. That means that you own your Bitcoin, but if you ever need help, like their team is there to assist you without ever having control over your funds. And here's what I really like. Unchained isn't some offshore exchange or anonymous company. They're based in Austin, Texas. And when you call, you're not stuck with bots or scripts. you talk to a real Bitcoiner who genuinely cares about helping you get it right. Now, they've been at it since 2016 and now secure over 12 billion in Bitcoin for people just like you and I. Now, that kind of trust doesn't happen overnight. So, if you're serious about long-term security and ownership, head over to unchained.com/mark moss and use code Moss 10 to get 10% off of your first vault. Because if you don't hold your keys, you don't hold your future.

Okay. I think the easiest way to get around this is, you know, when I first started investing with social orb was 2007. I wrote a book in 2010 because I turned 20,000 into 2 million. Basically proving you can make a 100 times your money in 3 years by investing aggressively with leverage in high conviction things that you're seeing, you know, taking place in the world. Most people will not be able to replicate those returns. But I do think it is feasible and reasonable to think that you could 100x your returns over the course of your lifetime if you're investing aggressively with leverage. Right? So if you think it way, then every dollar in your life is potentially worth $100 in the future. And that will open up so much money in your life because you're going to start to identify tradeoffs. Okay, I normally would never clip coupons, but hey, if that dollar coupon's $100, I'm clipping it. Now, the 50 cent coupon's 50, I'm clipping it. I'm clipping all these coupons, you know, like I really like my $5 coffee.

If it's a $500 coffee, I don't like it so much anymore. Maybe I only get it once or twice a week instead of seven days a week and I make coffee at home the other five days.

Yeah,

you will find so many tradeoffs in your life. It's crazy. And the reason why this is important is because that opens up an opportunity for you to make tradeoffs and take the money that you are saving and rather than just not doing anything with that money, putting it in a high-risisk, highreward account because that's money that was out the window. It was money that you intended to spend. It's essentially gone anyway, but you made a very tiny sacrifice because you want to have the opportunity to make big money in your life to truly be part of the investor class in a big way and to find massive amounts of wealth during your lifetime that is not restricted by the career path that you're on. Yeah. And if you think that way, this account will start with literally a few dollars in it and it will grow. It will grow. Um, it will probably grow massively over your lifetime. Yeah.

And you will start to think totally differently about money. Yeah. Um, but again, it's impossible to take that money and to put 20% of that bucket in something that can go to zero if you're not treating that capital different and you're not thinking about it differently. So, I like the idea of not taking your retirement money, not taking your vacation money necessarily or your kids' college education money, but finding new money in your life through this means of like thinking of every dollar as a $100, which it absolutely reasonably can turn into.

And hey, if it only turns into $40 or $50 in your life, it's still a huge win, right?

Um, every person should have this I call it a big money account. It's it's an account where you could truly make it big, whatever that means for you and anyone has the opportunity to do that.

Yeah. Yeah. I love that. The time value of money and thinking about uh if money could increase its purchasing power, you would think about every purchase differently. Um most of the content I make is in the Bitcoin space and we talk about, you know, if Bitcoin's purchasing power continues to increase like I believe it will. Um, and then you start thinking in Bitcoin terms, then you start thinking about how much this is going to be worth in the future and do I really need it that bad today or should I kind of wait. Um, and so yeah, when you think about assigning that future value, um, it helps you make better decisions for sure. What if I I think I saw some of your content talking about doing some trades against Bitcoin. So I have always had one thesis on crypto and Bitcoin specifically and it has not changed

crypto specifically or Bitcoin specifically. I

I would say well just Bitcoin. Okay.

Um to simplify it.

Yeah.

I've had the same thesis for about 10 years. Hasn't changed. I'm not sure it ever will change. And the thesis is I don't have a strong viewpoint on Bitcoin personally. Um, and I don't think that it matters that I don't have a strong viewpoint because what matters is what other people think about Bitcoin. Now, you obviously have a big thesis on Bitcoin. I don't need to believe in your thesis. All I need to believe is that you have a thesis. And it's very clear to me that this next generation of investors have a massive appetite for crypto, Bitcoin specifically, right? They all have different reasons for that. And I don't care what their reasons are, but I am convinced that for every gold bug of my generation and my parents' generation,

that there are 100 to a,000x more investors in the younger generation that feel that way about Bitcoin for one reason or another.

Yeah. And if that is ground truth, then I want to be exposed to Bitcoin because it's this generational trade where as the asset becomes institutionalized and becomes accepted and normalized uh which it has been over the past few years, you can now so easily invest in it. uh as this wealth transfer takes place over the next 20 to 25 years, tens and tens of trillions of dollars, um the new generation is likely to allocate some piece of that capital to something like Bitcoin.

Yeah.

And so that's the only thesis that matters. Because of that, I have exposure.

Yeah.

I want exposure in it because I feel like that's a really solid thesis. Yeah. And I don't spend any time thinking about Bitcoin or crypto at all.

Yeah.

Um I actually think that there are traders in crypto that are way faster, way more intense and better than I am when it comes to crypto and they use my methodology, social arb. Uh I don't want to compete with them.

Yeah.

Right. My competition in public equity markets is generally older, slower, more biased, more consumed by noise and I can beat them and I believe I can continue to beat them uh going forward. So I just don't allocate much mind space to well because your strategy is different and I just want to make this distinction for everybody listening. You said that you've only made about 70 trades in 18 years. You said a couple a year. So,

few a few year more than that now, but yes,

a few a couple uh whatever uh a low amount and most people and and I think some of the people you're referencing, some maybe some of the Bitcoin traders are more like day traders

and they're trading daily, maybe multiple times a day or multiple times a week or something like that. And uh you're more of like a trend trader, right? You're sort of like a swing, not even a swing trader, but you're just jumping on trends and then you have to allow that trend to develop. So, you're trying to get in early, sounds like, and then you're allowing that trend to develop over time. And so, like with Bitcoin, you're saying, I recognize it's a big trend. Like, I see the young people that are going to kind of push this like the old people did with gold. And you said this, uh, you know, the money transfer is going to happen. And so, this is like a long-term trend. So, it seems like your record is

Like, hey, I spot a trend early, I get in position, I allow it to develop as opposed to trying to trade it daily and then probably chewing up a bunch of capital being wrong a lot.

Yeah. I think I think trends is one word to use. It's probably not optimal for me. I like to think of what I do as having a clear sight line to the ground truth that exists right now in the present and to say based on that truth that I'm seeing that is factual the impact that is that is likely to have on this company or this asset class. I try not to overly predict the future um as much as I try to assess the reality of the present. So everything I told you about Bitcoin is something that I'm seeing right now in young people, young investors. I see a massive percent of young investors that want to have varying degrees of exposure long-term to Bitcoin.

Yeah. The only thing that doesn't exist is they don't have a lot of capital yet because they're young, but their accounts are guaranteed to grow over the next 20 or 25 years, whether through their profession and adding to it to it or through wealth transfer. Right. Yeah.

So, to me, it's just >> it's factual. Now, if I start to see young people caring less about Bitcoin, they lose an interest in it. something happens and it falls apart, I'll say that my thesis is no longer valid.

Sure. Sure. Yeah, it makes sense. I did a debate yesterday with Peter Schiff, uh, gold versus Bitcoin, and he was trying to say, well, you know, Bitcoin got the favorability of the Trump administration because of the voting block mobilized, and that's the only reason, you know, and I'm like, so what you're saying is the amount of people are so big that they can now change the political climate. like that seems pretty bullish to me, you know, and so kind of what you're seeing and and that's what he was saying.

Um, let's jump over to another topic that's really big, something that I spent a lot of time thinking about, I'm guessing you spent a lot of time thinking about, and that's AI. I think you were calling AI maybe the biggest thing that maybe has happened to humanity. On the other side of that, we got Michael Bur calling it the biggest bubble in humanity. How do you see that playing out?

Well, let me just state that it could be both, right? So, when you use a term like bubble, that could mean so many things, right? Like, what stage of the bubble are we in? Like, okay, like when you go through this big of a change, you're going to have a massive amount of creative destructionism. It's inevitable. We went through it during the dot boom, right? When the opportunity is massive, everyone's trying to get a piece of it. They're overinvesting in the market. Uh companies are popping up that probably should never pop up. Some of them will work. Most of them won't. So yes, we we do get this bubble. The the bubble's intentional. We know we're overinvesting in the space. We don't investors don't have they're willing to take on the risk that hey they're going to make some mistakes along the way but they'd rather make mistakes and invest in it and play in that space as opposed to not at all.

Like we talked about earlier, some of your investments are going to work out, not all of them.

Exactly. So it both things can be true. I think it's factual that AI is the biggest thing we've experienced in our lifetime. at least in my lifetime that I've seen. And that just comes from seeing what AI can do right now. It's not based on some theoretical AGI in the future. Just seeing what it's capable of right now. And I spend a tremendous amount of time deeply researching what engineers are actually building and saying and doing with AI right now in their jobs. So I think it's it the writing's on the wall. It's inevitable how AI is going to change the world in such a massive way. Everything is going to shift. It's not going to happen overnight, right? But everything will shift. And when you have that big of a change and when the change is coming as fast as it is, that is going to present itself with maybe the largest opportunity we've ever seen as investors because industries will shift. We're already seeing it, right? Yeah. Some industries will get destroyed, other industries will get built, some companies will balloon, other companies will completely go away. So, there's never been a more important time to be in tune with what's happening and to try to assess, are there obvious winners and losers, right? And placing your bets as an investor because we don't get opportunities like this very often. Sometimes we're just waiting for years and years and years. And think about what we've gone through the past 10 years where we've had the world's best engineers and the world's biggest companies with the most risk capital basically choosing to put all of their efforts to making slight tweaks in the phone or slight tweaks in the ad algorithms, right? that they're serving to us. So all of humanity, all of our best talent was going towards slight tweaks in technology to like to serve as an ad better.

I mean, are you kidding me? Now we have all of those same engineers working in this nent space of AI with an uncapped amount of opportunity where we literally think we could maybe cure all the world's diseases, right? We can create things, especially with robotics and automation, that can essentially build out infinite labor machines and change economies and allow us to do things we never thought would be possible before. Like, how is that not exciting both as a human and an investor? Equally scary because of the bad things that can come from it, right? But I it's wild to me that so many people are resisting and fighting this obvious reality that's right in front of our face with AI.

Well, when you study history, uh I study a lot of technological uh cycles in history and there's about every 50 years with this technological revolution. We're on our sixth one in 300 years. But every cycle you have people that fight the technology. You have the the lites who who fought the power loom because it was going to take away those jobs and the candle makers and the buggy makers and and every cycle. It does, as you said, creative destruction. It does displace jobs.

I'm curious, you know, so your approach seems to be more not trend driven, but socially arbitrageing the the movements, I guess we'll call it that. Um, as a >> observational investing, >> obser observational versus like macroeconomic driven. So, a lot of macroeconomic investors are warning of AI causing a big crash because it's going to displace so many jobs and then the job losses will create uh tax receipts to plunge and the government, you know, on and on and on. I've been taking the counter on that because I think that fails to recognize a couple of things. Number one, if my as a business owner, my job is to grow. My job is to build. My job is to go climb mountains, to go solve problems, right? And so I think a business owner like those are those those are conclusions that analysts draw.

But I think entrepreneurs and business owners go if I can do twice as much with the same staff like let's go. Why would I go well then I'll just fire half my people?

Yeah. I think it's called like Devon's paradox, right? Or something like that, right? So like why wouldn't I just go so if if my CFO or my CMO frees up four or five hours a week, why wouldn't I do those projects that have been on the back burner this whole time as to like well I'll put you to part-time now. So I think that's number one. And then number two, I think that it also thinks of things like in a vacuum. So like it does get rid of a lot of jobs, but look at all the jobs that it creates at the same time. And the biggest example I can see, I just saw a chart of this yesterday. One of the biggest jobs that would be at risk would be software engineers. Claude says that they're using Cloud Code to build the code for Claude.

Software engineers are the number one job that are at risk, but job explosions are off the charts for hiring software engineers right now.

Yeah. So, you put a 100 economists in a room and ask their opinion, you're going to get a hundred different opinions. I think the one truth studying history is the prevailing opinions probably will be wrong. Right. So I agree with you. I don't know for sure but I firmly believe that while we might have bumps in the road and there might be some issues that we have to work through with people out of jobs due to AI and certain career paths that everyone will come out ahead in the end. I think it will create more better jobs on the tail end of this than we had before it started because you know if you have AI and automation and robotics and it allows you to open up you know basically allows you to have a fast food restaurant with twothirds less employees right uh but now you could open up five times as many restaurants because they operate so efficiently, right? So, I I think the bottleneck if you talk to business owners, if you talk to CEOs, the biggest bottleneck is always cost of labor. And it's either cost of labor or it's just access to labor. Sometimes it's not even cost. You just cannot get enough qualified labor. And it's every conversation I have. I was just speaking to, you know, a prominent entrepreneur billionaire this last week who said I was like, "What is your biggest uh, you know, bottleneck to growth?" This person is trying to like grow a big private business and it was talent. I just can't get enough talent.

Yeah. And if to the degree that AI enables us to kind of free up that chokeold, right, to and even if it's taking people and and allowing them to the time to educate themselves to play a bigger part >> in the world economy and in roles where AI maybe isn't as optimal >> because we can do all the repetitive stuff.

Yeah. And even in the way that AI can educate you, like no one's talking about that. Yeah. Like we have the Alpha School in Austin that's, you know, educating kids like 5x faster.

I just saw that school. Amazing what they're doing.

Wild like that school should be a template for every school in the world.

I actually messaged him and I tal asked him about that. Yeah.

It's it's not getting enough attention.

Yeah. And if you just look at what we can do to educate people rapidly in the optimal way that that individual is accustomed to learning it, you know, we're going to get to a point where you can be taught just in the things that are interesting to you. So if all you care about is soccer, it will figure out how to teach you math using nothing but soccer references, right? So it's just a complete gamecher I think for leveling up the human population.

Yeah. And freeing up the human population to do more right like to do more interesting things.

Again if you look at the if you look at CEOs and entrepreneurs they want to build they just need to get around this human bottleneck.

Yeah. And this is what's going to enable us to do it. So I agree with you. I think everybody wins at the end. It'll be it'll be a bumpy road. There's no doubt about it. It won't be clean. Nothing ever is.

I think back to the we want to do more. Like I've been wanting to build my own software and app for a long time. I don't know anything about building software apps. I'm certainly not going to go vibe it either. But now that I know people can and I know that the barrier to entry has fallen so low, if I got somebody that knew how to use cloud code and knew how to vibe code, I could get them to build it. So now I'm looking to bring somebody on to do that. I'm looking to hire because now it's more accessible to me whereas before I wasn't going to hire because it was too far out of reach. And I think that's why we see those jobs blowing up because that barrier's been been been uh you know lowered.

And something that's not getting enough attention cuz I think there are only so many people who have been a founder who have grown a business from an idea to something meaningful. People don't fully appreciate the friction that exists between a highly creative entrepreneur that sees a problem and they have a way to solve that problem, but they have to rely on teams of engineers to basically interpret their solution and filter it down and delay it and the complexities and the expense of actually imple implementing that solution through traditional code and processes. If you're able to remove and maybe you're not fully removing those people, but you're making it a much more fluid >> kind of channel between the entrepreneurs's brain and the end product. If you remove all that friction, which is happening right now, I mean, there's many cases where entrepreneurs don't even have to hire someone. They could just do this on their own, right? That is going to open up so much opportunity.

Completely wild. And think about this. There are millions of problems that need to be solved.

But most of those problems, you cannot come up with a solution that is cost productive in the old world. Meaning the cost to hire the teams to raise the capital. the amount of money that you would make from that solution even though the solution is great doesn't make sense to create an entire company and raise capital to solve that problem. But in the world of AI there are now there's now an opportunity for us to solve millions of these problems with a single individual.

Yeah. Who by the way they might not have employees but they are their employee. Right. So, like that person might have been laid off from a company and now they're managing a niche product that maybe generates hundreds of thousands of dollars of income a year, which hopefully is more income they were generating in their old job.

Yeah. Solving a problem that would have never had made sense to build an entire old school company around because they can solve it in their bedroom with, you know, a small computer or just a small subscription to some cloud computing. Yeah. and some AI, some agentic AI.

Yeah, like that's massive. That could be millions of people. Millions, right?

Okay, so I got to tell you what I've been doing with my money lately. I moved my cash over to River. And before you ask, yes, I still pay all my bills and dollars. Everything works the same. But here's the real difference. You see, River pays me 3.3% on my cash and they pay it in Bitcoin. So my money that was just sitting there doing nothing at all in the bank, it's now stacking Bitcoin while I sleep. And I started thinking like my bank takes my deposits, they loan those deposits out, they make 12, 17, 24%. And they pay me 0.04%. I mean, honestly, that's kind of a shakeddown when you think about it. Now, River's FDIC insured. They use full reserve. They charge no fees. So, I don't know why I didn't do this sooner. So, click the link down below and get $100 in Bitcoin just for getting started.

How do you think about or if are you or how are you observing? Are you investing in the space or how are you observing it? because it's moving so fast. Like a month ago, the hottest thing was got to get a Claudebot and set up your own Mac Mini and build that out. And now this week, Claude releases their new codework cla code with codework and like I don't even need anymore. It's like it's all like we take the time, we buy the thing, we spend a month building it out and all a sudden it's like obsolete. So it's like seems like it's happening so fast. So how do you think about investing through this space?

Yeah, I mean I think if you're an entrepreneur, it's easy to transition from, you know, Clawbot over to, you know, or like OpenClaw to like a different platform. So, I don't think there's a big issue there.

If you're an investor, it makes it really difficult, right? And like I no longer invest in private companies. I no longer invest in early stage companies because it's just too difficult to assess where all the moes are. And I don't understand if there's if I can't assess the barrier to entry, then it's hard to value a company. And if the world is moving so quickly with technology, it makes it impossible for me to pick winners at the early stage. Right.

So like a lot of other investors, I'm sticking to the known. Yeah. I'm sticking to a lot of the picks and the shovels, investing in companies like Anthropic, for example, through proxies, companies that own, you know, a large share of Enthropic that might be publicly traded. uh I'm investing in companies of course like Nvidia, companies like Amazon that I think will benefit from the overall kind of AI efficiency trade as opposed to investing a lot of money in highly speculative startups that might not even be around six months because the AI has kind of overrun.

Yeah. Yeah. Let's uh let's pivot gears a little bit. um you know we're talking about AI which we both agree you've said uh it's going to be the fastest most transformative technology we've ever seen each technology is um but at the same time then it creates these pendulum swings and so we had talked about earlier before we started recording about some of the things you're focused on now which is more like experiential in in in real life like you run uh the Pokemon conventions for example so as we go more and more towards online reality or virtual reality um Then there's more of this craving, nostalgia for in real life, uh, events, uh, events with people, experiences, things like that. How are you thinking about that today? Is that part of this trend that you're picking up?

Yeah, I think and and and again going studying history, there's precedent for this, right? So anytime we've had like a tech a leap in technology or innovation, there seems to be a near equal thirst to adopt that for all the cool things that you can do that you could never do before >> and also an interest in nostalgia and you know the way things used to be because that's obviously very comfortable for us as humans. So, I think that trend will likely continue and, you know, the opportunities in the nostalgia space are a little bit easier to wrap your head around because they kind of have some of the more traditional moes. So, yeah, I I I helped fund and start uh a company called Collecticon about four years ago. It's turned into the largest Pokemon trade show in the world. Uh we'll do 20 shows this year. Uh I own I own some restaurants uh in my home city of Dallas, Chelsea Corner, Milo Butterfingers, and opening up a new one, Sunshine Flowers, where it becomes a third space for people, right? People that want to kind of unwind and like not be digitally connected. I think there will continue to be a thirst for that even though the restaurant business is very hard other ways. Um, I I, you know, I think experiential travel uh will be a very large sector for many years.

Wouldn't all travel be experiential?

Well, you know, yes, but I think just people really leaning in to just that level of connectivity, right? So, when you look at things like the private jet business, for example, and I'm I'm kind of getting involved in that. I'm opening up a private jet uh brokerage uh showroom in Dallas. People want to maximize every minute of their free time. They want the party to start before they get to the destination, right? So, you know, I say 15 years ago, the only people that flew private jets were CEOs and billionaires. And now, you know, it's crypto kids and trust fund kids and content creators and quite honestly, anybody that can afford it because it's part of that experience, right? And people are valuing experiences, I think, more today than they ever have before.

Um, because it's something that is just totally different. Um, and it's certainly something that's generational for me. Uh, you know, I've been grinding since I was 13. I've been, you know, most of my life has been in intangibles. So, I'm pivoting towards doing fun businesses with my friends, right? Things that I can have those experiences with, you know, in the back half of my life.

Yeah. Uh I think everyone's trying to look for purpose, right? And uh you know, my purpose has always been philanthropic. So, I'm leaning into my charitable foundation, which I'm trying to build, uh and doing good in the world. And I'm really spending a more time today strategizing how can we change the world of philanthropy to be more productive, right? To be more intimately uh part of people's lives uh and something that we can trust.

Yeah. How do you think about that?

Um I think that world has been on an island for too long, right? And I think charity >> charity generally, right? I think people just generally are not are too far removed from it and they think it's something I live my life. Maybe I donate money, maybe I don't, but I don't really trust a lot of things. So, a lot of us will just donate money to things that are very close to us in our communities because we can see it and we could feel it. Um, I would love people to become way more engaged uh with philanthropy from day one, right? and to have it be a bigger part of their life and to have more people from the business world uh deeply engage in philanthropy so we can kind of raise the degree of trust that we have in terms of our ability to donate time and money that will actually have a real durable lasting impact on the world and actually create change as opposed to something that just maybe makes us feel good.

Yeah. Right. Uh and so like I think there's a lot of work to be done.

Yeah. In that model and no one's really out there trying to do >> you have any ideas that work. I I'm in the very early stages of it, but I I I think we need intermediaries almost in the same way that you know you have not a lot of people have a wealth manager, right? And that wealth manager kind of holds their hand through the journey of saving and investing and planning out their future. I foresee there being roles where especially for the ultra high net worth which is becoming a much larger portion of humanity today, right? Like there the ultra high net worth uh demographic is massive today relative to what it was 20 years ago.

Yeah. I think there needs to be maybe a a channel and uh >> you know people there to kind of hold their hand through that process, right? that are not necessarily incentivized for the end charity. Yeah. Right. Like like why don't if we care about this so much and we should like why don't we treat it just as importantly as everything else in our life.

I think the thing is years ago I was on a I was flying first class and I'm sitting next to a guy so he's you know well off and we kind of started talking. I don't talk to a lot of people when I'm flying typically, but we started talking and he was like a high-end consultant. We kind of got into a little bit of politics and he's um you know, I'm for small government and less taxes and more freedom. He was for the opposite. And um we kind of got into charity and you know, the government needs to take care of all these people and welfare and this and that. I said, "Let me just ask you a personal question. You don't have to answer this, but just let me ask you a personal question. Like how much of your wealth do you give to charity?" and he kind of thought about it for a second and then sort of was reluctant to answer and he's like none. I'm like, that's why you think the government has to take our money to help other people because you're not doing it. But that being said, this is an area I spent a lot of time thinking about. That being said, like I don't think just giving money is the answer because like anyone who's had kids realizes like the best joy in life is having other people have joy. So when you when your kids have the joy, it's better than any joy you could have on yourself. And so like when you go and you meet the kids, just a few weeks ago I was down in Mexico. We went to this orphanage and um you know I saw the kids. I was actually talking to my daughter about this last night. I want to take her down there. And when you see the kids and you see where they're living and you see the joy from just a small little couple things that's that's the thing, right? But like then what are those things that you would help? So then like um what is the problem that you see in the world like just any entrepreneur would focus on? like what's the problem that I think I could solve? Tony Robbins is focused on feeding people. Uh maybe I want to help people have clean water. Maybe I want people to have education, right? So like what's the problem that I think and like how could I solve that problem? And then like how could I be involved in that, right? And not just write a check because if you just write a check, it's sort of like dead and you don't really feel it. And I think and then I one layer more I think about like I was kind of creating this movement years ago and I I haven't fully built it out. I haven't had the time, but maybe in the back half of my career, I'll focus on. But it was a vacation with a purpose. So like um I don't want to go do things I don't like, but if there are things I already like doing. So I was on a dirt I ride I ride dirt bikes through Mexico. So I was on a dirt bike trip and we went to the orphanage. I'm on a surf trip and then we go to So I'm like vacationing. I got spare time. let me go to the orphanage and I can put things together that then make it fun versus like I was doing construction projects down in Porto Escandido, Mexico and I hate construction projects and after that I was like hey I told the guy that was helping I'm like I'm never going to do that again. I'll pay to hire people but I ain't doing that but then like we do other events for the kids and I love it. So like find something that you're passionate about a problem you want to solve. Try to get involved personally and I think that's where you get the real reward. I I also think we don't have enough people that are truly innovative, aggressive, you know, leaders that from a very early age are going allin to solve these problems. And I I, you know, transparently, and this is why it's on my mind, I I had a huge opportunity last week. Uh I've been working with, you know, the Beast Foundation, Mr. for years and they invited me to Ghana and I spent some time with them and him and basically seeing everything that they're doing there.

Yeah. And >> they're taking such a datadriven approach, a highly strategic approach to building sustainable, durable change to remove kids from child labor. And if you're not in the weeds kind of seeing this firsthand, you just wouldn't even believe it. But >> you know what they're doing is basically trying to build a template that can be replicated all around the world. And it's not something that I would have believed was even possible until I saw it with my own eyes. And to see young people I think he's like 28.

Yeah. To see him dedicating that much of his life when he could be doing anything he wants, right? Yeah. And he's just in the weeds trying to solve this very difficult problem because yeah, we've donated money forever. But child labor, the needle hasn't moved at all. Why?

And so like let's actually treat this problem like a business. Yeah. Let's try to actually figure out where is the solution. How can we solve this? Let's try to prove that we can solve this with hard data.

Yeah. And then replicate it. Because listen, there's so much wealth in this world. If you can prove the model, I think the floodgates will open in terms of people saying, "Hey, I will financially support that." If you can prove there's a sustainable difference, right? As opposed to just writing a blank check >> to a school that maybe closes 5 years later because there was no one to follow up and it really was never done in the right way to begin with.

Yeah. Um, and so I think we have a long way to go when it comes to how we think about philanthropy and like >> but I think even that example which is a great example I remember a couple years ago he went and built a dug a bunch of wells water you know wells that was amazing he got a lot of hate for that which is crazy the government was mad that he went to solve these problems but I think you know back to this entrepreneur thing and and as you said most of these high net worth individuals have created wealth by solving problems so it's like I'm going to announce I'm going to go solve this problem digging wells feeding people whatever whatever it may be. And then other people will align just like you would invest in a business. I agree in Uber. I'll invest into Uber. So I agree in this business proposal that you have. I understand it's charity, but I recognize the problem. I see the problem that you do. I I see your solution and I'll back it. So it sort of fits more of like a problem solution framework that business owners and entrepreneurs network individuals are used to as opposed to like Red Cross, you know, kind of a thing. And listen, also we're so concerned now that AI and robotics are going to displace human workers, which we don't agree with.

But >> yeah, >> in the event that that was even remotely true, how many other problems do we have that we could reallocate resources towards to solve, right? Being in, you know, philanthropic issues around the world. So I it's like there are massive problems to solve still and I think there's just massive opportunity there and and with the help of AI we've never been a better in a better place.

Yeah. To be able to solve these problems now that we have all these tool sets for the first time in humanity.

Well, uh that's a good place to wrap it up. I want to ask one big question because you've like I said I watched a bunch of your content and you've made a bunch of predictions that that have been been been good. What's one prediction for 2030, it's about four years away, that most people will think is is absolutely crazy.

Yeah, I think, you know, I've been heavily involved in robotics the last four years, uh, humanoid robotics specifically, and there are a lot of naysayers that are saying this is never going to be real. I think Mark Cuban came out this week and said this is not the right form factor. You know, I'm almost a thousand hours of deep research into the sector and I've spent time with most of the leading companies in humanoid robotics. I do believe that on the long side, people's expectations and timelines are way off. Nothing is going to happen as quickly as people think it's going to happen. But I think 2030 is the year that we are going to see so much traction in full-blown humanoid robotics, what I call the infinite labor machine, that people will universally believe that we have created invented a scalable infinite labor machine that will radically change the earth, radically change every industry. A third of uh global GDP is physical human labor.

Yeah. And it is the bottleneck for almost everything that we're trying to achieve in the world. And I think we will come to terms with the fact that the solution will be here by 2030. Just knowing the companies, knowing the trajectory that they're on, understanding where they are both on the hardware side and on the neural network foundation model side, which is the brain of the robot. I think give us three years, three to four years, people are not even going to believe how big of a deal this is going to be, right? By 2030. So, you know, Elon talks about this like it's going to redefine economies. It's the biggest thing that ever happened. Jensen's starting to say the same thing.

Yeah. uh those that are on the inside can clearly see that while there are still numerous issues that need to be tackled on the hardware and on the foundation model side for robots, none of those issues um are insurmountable. So there's not one single um uh issue that we're like I don't know how we're going to solve it, right?

Even hands which are very difficult. Yeah, Elon said that's the hardest thing.

It's the hardest thing. But like I saw hand yesterday even with a hand company and blew my mind. Like completely blew my mind how quickly we're accelerating the development of hands. Are we there yet now where we can thread a needle with a robot hand? Absolutely not. Is the pressure sensing there? I mean the human hand is so unbelievable. People just do not understand how unbelievable the sensory is in your fingers and the pressure points. We are not going to get there for a very long time. But we don't need to get there that quickly, right? Like where hands are going in the next couple years is going to solve most of the applications that we need to be able to handle for physical robots. And >> we will have robots that will be able to essentially do almost anything uh by the 2030s and we'll have a clear sighteline to that I think globally by 2030 and it will shock people.

Yeah. Well, that's a big call. That's a real that's a real big call. I mean, I know Elon's calling for it as well. I have my doubts, but we're going to hold you to that one and we'll we'll see where we're at after that. Uh, I'll just say, you know, for everyone listening, I mean, if Chris can turn 20,000 into 70 million by reading Tik Tok comments, then, uh, maybe you can't do the same, but you should be paying attention to what's going on. Um, spot the trends, connect the dots, and, uh, maybe you can have success as well. Um, anywhere that you want to send people to follow you?

Yeah. Um, just Chris Camilillo on X and, uh, Dumboney Live is our YouTube show, but dumboney.tv has all the socials. And, uh, we just do this for fun. like we don't monetize. We're just three friends. We we just want to bring every investor in the world, every human on earth into the investor class. That that's our goal.

And we share I share every idea I have publicly because I just share it openly. Now, I'm not saying you should mirror my trades, but >> poke holes in my ideas. Take them and do your own homework. And >> I like to collaborate with other investors on ideas.

Yeah. Good. All right. Thanks so much,