Transcription
Yeah.
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All right. Hello and welcome to Campbell Finance. I'm your boy Campbell. And what a slow week this has been. Hey, just sitting here patiently waiting. It doesn't normally take this long. If you're newer to cycles, it doesn't normally take this long, but we want to be short, right? We want to be a little bit later to the trade in exchange for increased confidence cuz this game is hard enough as it is. So, I want to make sure when I actually am trading, I am putting the balance of probabilities in my favor as much as possible to give me the biggest edge possible. And of course, the beauty of cycles is if what we see over the coming week or so is just a bunch of chop and sideways, then rather than go long out of these cycle lows, we'll look to short the failure. So, in either case, I think it's going to be fine. But patience is something that a lot of especially newer investors really struggle with. But it's no good just jumping the gun and getting bored and taking a position because yolo or because you're bored or because you're up at night and you've got nothing better to do. This is not a video game, right? This is a business and you must treat it that way if you want to have long-term success.
Today, I got a little bit of a mixed bag. There's some pretty cool things lining up for the camel crew. So, I'm excited to show you today. But I wanted to kick things off with this, right? Stretch is now the largest holding in Black Rockck's infra and vanex preferred stock ETFs. Okay, so whilst we've had all this FUD going on around STRC and Sailor and Strategy at whilst I have been quite insufferable, I think I made something like six consecutive videos on Micro Strategy and this whole situation. And pretty much you could condense the entire six 20 odd minute episodes into the following sentence. Most people don't know what they're talking about. Most people seem to think they know more than a billionaire. And I was making the case that actually whilst I don't trust him, I'm not a fan girl. I'm sailor neutral. Sometimes billionaires know what they're talking about when it comes to capital management. And so through all the people that didn't understand the maths were calling it a Ponzi and all that other stuff, okay, Black Rockck, Infra, and Vanek think this is not a Ponzi. They think this is such a nice opportunity here that they want to have this as the highest weight in their fixed income preferred stock ETFs. So are those people not only smarter than Sailor at Capital Management, but are they now smarter than the three largest ETF managers? I'll leave that up to you to decide. But it is pretty funny how often this kind of thing happens in markets, right? Everyone's got all the answers. Ain't nobody got no money.
For a long time on this channel, I have been suggesting that as we head down for some 4-year cycle lows, we would probably see some unexpected things show up, right? This whole stretch Ponzi scheme idea was something I didn't really foresee coming. We've covered that. We've done that to death, frankly. People calling for Sailor to go to jail. I'll probably put that in the file of things I didn't expect as well. And I don't think we're done yet. Okay? I think there's still going to be more and more surprises just because there's always infinite narratives, right? But towards the 4-year lows, they start to be seemingly worse and worse, right? That's just a pattern that tends to unfold, right? Again, it's the cycles are in control. Everything else is narrative. But what you'll find is as we enter these major cycle low windows, people tend to become a lot more fixated on explaining away the downside with whatever narratives available at the time. And as for unexpected things, BitMEX is now going to shut down all operations. Okay? So, I don't think this really matters, at least not to the price, and therefore not to us at the moment. But it will only take some kind of chicainery to be the reason for this that the market hasn't detected yet or maybe there is a knock-on effect or contagion. And we could very quickly be replicating what we saw in the 22 bare market. Now again, it's not a call. It's not a prediction. I'm just saying that as we approach these major lows, this is the type of thing you typically expect to see. So wishing Arthur a very happy retirement. I'm sure he'll be doing a lot of skiing and that kind of stuff. Good for him, bro.
Up next, we found this. Okay, if you have been a longtime Camel Crew member, you will have probably already been sat up in your chair having seen this. Okay, the US has voted to ban Congress from insider trading and the House actually passed a bill banning members of Congress and their spouses from trading individual stocks. For anyone that is not quite sure why this is so exciting to us, okay, it's because it has long been an expectation that as we approach the top, okay, we would see this happen. Why? Because we simply saw them do the same thing with the Fed officials back here. back here they banned the Fed from trading individual stocks and they did it under the guise of ethical reasons, right? They said it's not fair that they get to basically insider a trade and no one else does. And as it turned out really what they did was just let them out of the top before a bare market unfolded. And so we've long been saying we may well see the same thing towards the top here. We may well see them do it with Congress and then of course we would enter a 4-year cycle decline and if I'm right about the rest of the call, some kind of lost decade from there on out. This has been going on for years. They've been talking about it. It's been in the news. I think if you type in Congress banned from owning stocks and then something like 2017 or 2018, you'll be able to pull old news articles up from all those years ago where they were talking about this and nothing really came of it. But it does seem like finally we are making progress here. So something to watch out for because not only were we expecting this to occur towards the top, letting us know that the days are probably numbered for a top to come in here, but we also know that based on the cycles, the larger order degree cycles, we're only now about one two daily cycles away into the weekly cycle, which could probably be the 4year cycle low as well. So it's going to be really interesting to see how much follow through we can get from this current daily cycle. I still hope to see that we could get a nice big push to the upside. Something tells me we are still going to get that. Just going to be a few days behind schedule here. But again remember if not then we'll just treat it like we did here. We were saying the same things here and then as we got approaching weekly cycle low we run out of time for this cycle. We actually managed to get short here and catch this. And as level three members will test. We also managed to flip long on the Dow at the bottom here using the cycles as well. So I think we'll be able to figure this out. Okay. It's just a little bit of patience and flexibility is required. A lot of people get focused on saying things like well you said it's going to go up. Okay. But do you want me to be right or do you just want to figure this out? Let the market show us and then catch some gains. Right. For me, making profit is far more important than being right. I've been wrong plenty of times and still made money. So, I know that's a complex thing to understand if you're newer to trading, but patience is a real virtue here. Okay? If we can just accept that we have no control over what's going to happen, okay, we have a system with Edge that should give us a buy signal soon. And if for some reason that buy signal continues to be lackluster, then of course we can expect this thing to fail. And if it fails, given how late we are in this cycle, we can look to short down here. Pretty much the same as what we did with Bitcoin. We knew once we got up in here it's probably going to do something like this and thus we managed to head short at 80k. So anyway, one day at a time it is probably quite ominous especially based on where the cycles are. Wild times for sure.
We also have got plenty of canaries in the coal mine at the moment as Peter Brandt points out here. This is Microsoft potentially big head and shoulders. Okay, if this is going to roll over again this is leaders leading to the downside. A lot of the mag 7 look like that. A lot of the semiconductors which are also propping up the indices are also looking potentially like they could go either way. And if they do start to roll over, okay, then there's no way that we're not going to have tops for the four-ear cycle in the likes of the S&P and the Dow and the NASDAQ because there's no way those indices can move higher with the likes of the MAG Seven and semiconductors moving lower. So, when I was talking about the next 8 weeks being pretty wild, I wasn't joking, right? We're going to get a resolution for this in the short term, probably within the next week. Then, we're going to be able to figure out whether or not there is new highs or whether we're going to be looking for short setups. And then of course by the time we have started to either blow off to new highs or rolled over to new lows and those four-year lows for the stock market, that's when we're going to start to see the real changes in the bond market, the yields coming back, gold bottoming out soon after. Okay, it's going to be pretty wild here. Again, TLT on its way to another weekly cycle, which should also be the yearly cycle and the 7 and 1/2 year cycle. Should soon probably do something like this, right? Come down and undercut this low, fake breakdown, right? and then confirmation with a trend line breakout and then it should be on. Right? So, all the signs are kind of there, right? All the dominoes are aligned for something spectacular to happen into the end of the year. It's just going to be a case of having to stay flexible and open to everything as always.
I still see loads and loads of people calling for the end of the Dixie bull run. I see a lot of people saying this is going to roll over and Bitcoin's going to rally yet, but timing wise, it doesn't make sense. Number one, because Bitcoin is far too early to be bottoming here. And if this was a real bottom, and we could force it early. It's not outside of the realms of possibility that we couldn't have bottomed here, but if we did, it would normally look a lot stronger than this. And the fact that after all this time, we're still absent of even a higher high here, let alone a higher macro high. I would suggest to you that this is still no way close to a bottom. It just doesn't look like one. Doesn't have any of the hallmarks or characteristics of a 4-year bottom. And as such, this probably makes a lot more sense as per the yellow squiggle, right? So, not only does the timing not fit there, but remember for the dollar all the way back in March time confirmed a major three-year low. And normally, you get at least 12 to 18 months of bull run. Even if it's not like this, right, really steep, you at least get like a 12 to 18 months of chop grinding higher before then it heads down for its next threeear cycle low. And so far, it's been just about 6 or 7 months. So, that would be very very early to this to roll over. Okay, we'd expect this thing realistically to run at least until the end of the year, maybe into early next year and even the middle of next year would just be normal and to be expected. It doesn't normally, as you can see, going all the way back through these threeear cycles. It doesn't normally just top 6 months after the threeear cycles in. It normally grinds for at least 12 to 18 months before then rolling over and heading for its next threeear cycle. And so again, that fits with everything else too, right? This all kind of is interconnected. This all makes a lot of sense that we're going to have continued downside into the end of this year and then as of about 8 weeks time we're going to start to see the real shift in these market dynamics. So it's going to be super interesting.
As for where these trade setups are. Okay. The only thing I can think of is that maybe I got this count. Okay. And this is not the cycle low, but it's actually this. This is what the indicator thinks. And therefore this should be here. and therefore I was a little bit premature in my counting of the daily cycle low. The fact the indicator thinks it's this makes me trust the indicator. Okay, the indicator is really good. The indicator knows what it's doing. It can often see things that I can't. And also, if we're being honest, okay, this doesn't really look much like a daily cycle decline. Whereas this with the two drives is very textbook and it's, you know, significantly through the 10 SMA. And the indicator seems to think that we would be better off waiting for this window here, which is a few days later. Okay, that's kind of like early August. So, as I was saying at the start, could be some fluidity is needed here, but it does also look like the indicators got this one correct. So, again, a little bit of patience, right? A little bit of not worrying too much about being right or wrong and instead worrying about how to skew the probability in our favor so that we can be hopefully correct in our trade or at least if nothing else, have the highest probability of a winning trade that we could possibly manage by exercising patience, caution, and risk management. And so far, that's working out, right? Because so far, had we have just jumped the gun and gotten long in here, we'd have probably been stopped out or nearly stopped out by now. So, taking our time is working out and I'm going to continue to suggest that's the right thing to do.
As for the things like the Dow, the Dow isn't wholly dissimilar, is it? This is pretty much just looking like a regular cycle low here with the fake breakdown. So, this should turn any day now and looks like it's getting ready to. Same for the Russell as well. That was kind of looking good, but now we're just going for another low. So, again, yeah, not looking too bad. some early warning signs here that the low is in. But we'll see how the Friday can close this week. Remember, if Thursday and Friday are both red days, then statistically, I can't remember the actual number, but it's something like 70 or 80% of Mondays will be red. So, a nice green candle here will be good. Otherwise, we're probably going to have to have a bit more of a spill into Monday. But remember, it's quite easy to spot when we've got a new cycle cuz the hallmark is you get a big green candle. So, whilst we're getting like these nothing burgers in here, okay, we can say that we're probably not ready to bottom. you will know when it's here because you will see something out of place, out of character, like a big red candle like, excuse me, a big green candle like this. So, that's all there really is to say about the stocks.
I think oil is setting up this short setup as well. Right, we got the fake breakout or I'm assuming it's a fake breakout. Okay, normally you just expect this thing to reject and head for a four-ear cycle low. But as it's oil, it loves to fake everyone out a few times and thus that's why we got the yellow squiggle like this. If of course this plays out as per our expectations in yellow squiggle, there is a short opportunity here. So, we'll see about that.
As for the metals, I saw a lot of people asking me, "Hey, is this a new daily cycle?" Yeah, it probably is. But is it expected to do much? Not really. Worst case scenario, this thing has bottomed right here, right now for its weekly and fourear low. And if so, it will do something like this. Break out, retest into the upcoming cycle low, which will be a higher low, and then go. In which case, we'll just use this as our low to manage risk around and build exposure. And yeah, fine. We missed the bottom by this much. But in the scheme of things, does that matter? Not to me. Same as back here, right? We got the breakout and we missed the bottom by I don't know 4% or something. But in the scheme of things, did that matter? No, not at all. So I don't think this is going to be visible in the long term if we're right on our call. As for now, I don't see any reason to deviate away from our call. Okay, it's here. It's time to lock in, go hunting for all those individual stocks, making those members videos as always as promised. And then I think we're going to get a repeat of this back here, which worked out really well for us. So that's all I have to say about the precious metals really. Same for silver as something like this I think makes sense but it could take a number of paths there. It could even be a higher low in which case same deal right we'll just build the exposure slightly higher up mixing the odds to me it's really about having a high probability setup to manage the risk around but for now I'm pretty confident that the read is clear and the cycles are being quite consistent right they're behaving as expected for the metals right now they're a little bit muddy in some of the stocks but for the for the metals they're doing exactly what we thought they'd do so no reason to worry about them Bitcoin again still doing exactly what the cycle suggested they would do there as well so again no real reason to worry about this either okay unless something materially clearly changes unless we start to get higher highs and invalidations on the setup, then it's still very much something like this.
Notice how Micro Strategy as well is going to give us the gift that keeps giving. I hope. Okay, I hope this is going to be a failed breakout soon and then we're going to roll over, sweep these lows, and then we can go hunting for a very nice opportunity. Trust me as well, no one's going to want to buy that when we get down there. And since we covered stretch earlier again, I didn't see anyone else call for this. Let me know if anyone else saw this, but remember the lower high idea and then roll over again into that 4 year low window and then we can go well actually. [laughter] Sorry, I'm too used to flicking my hand up there. That's like a muscle memory thing. Uh yeah, back to par, let's say. Okay, but I do think this lower high idea makes a lot of sense. Okay, and so far that's in play. People asking me, am I a buyer of this dip? No. But am I a buyer of the next one? Yes, I think so. I'm also seeing people pointing at things like Riot and stuff. Yeah, Riot's looking pretty good, right? breakout, hard retest, now back above. So, looking for the measured move target of 44 perhaps. It's not one I'm trading personally. I'm much more interested in letting this thing run and then as it crashes into its fouryear low, I'll be talking about buying it there. But I know some of you are interested in it. So, yeah, that's all there is to say really. Breakout, hard retest, looking for resumption, measured move target of 44. And of course, once the stocks bottom, I think the last thing to say is simply that one or two of these members trades that we've been lining up should also be ready to break out as well. So, we'll leave it at that since there's a members video tomorrow which I'll go over that stuff with the members. Otherwise, yeah, sorry the week's been boring. Obviously, it's out of my hands. Obviously, I would love to have got some trades on here, but I'm not just going to go shooting from the hip with a blindfold on. [laughter] These analogies I say I say things and then I'm like, what did you just say? I don't know if anyone has ever shot from the hip with a blindfold or if it's recommended, but in terms of these terrible analogies, right? Like this is very close and technically we could trade this. Technically, we could buy here with a stop below the low because we've had a breast cross. We've had a trend line break. We have had an indicator pick the low inside of the window or just outside in this case. So, I I don't have a problem with being long here, but I would rather be slightly late. I would rather be entering up here with a slightly wider stop and a slightly smaller position in exchange for increased confidence. Now, you do you as always, okay? But I'm always later to the trade cuz I think trading is hard enough. I would rather be slightly more confident and a bit later than trying to stab in here at the lowest possible low with the tightest possible stop levered to the gills and then probably taking more stops than is necessary. But to each their own. There's no right or wrong way to do it, but this is the way I do it. I'd rather be here with a little bit more confidence behind me.
Don't watch the 10-year yield. I'm never going to live this down [laughter] if I'm wrong about this. If I'm wrong about this, I think people are going to hold it against me forever. They're already I think there's already a cue to lynch me for this call. Um, but it is what it is, right? Sometimes you get things wrong. I'm not wrong yet. We're wrong above here. Okay, we're wrong above here. But again, we'll let the cycles do their thing. Okay, so do keep an open mind. Okay, do tune in next week because the fact that we're this late now means we're almost certainly going to be pulling the trigger on some trades next week. And if for some reason we can't get into any longs next week, then that just sets up shorts for the week after. Okay, so slowly but surely. Okay, I know this has been a really painful year. I was actually talking to my wife about this last night. She was like, "Oh, how much uh money have you made from trading this year?" And we were talking about that. And then she was almost like, "Ah, that's uh pretty lackluster compared to previous years." And I was like, "Yeah, but here's a bare market, right? You got to keep in mind Bitcoin year to date is 50% off the highs. Gold is something like 30 or 40% off the highs. The S&P is up something like 9% year to date, right? And we're currently around that 20% ballpark. I haven't calculated it exactly um very recently, but sometime around 2 months ago, we were about 20%. And I haven't made many trades this year. I go into autopilot cuz I've been doing this so long and I just have a system and I just do it right. But it was only last night when I was talking to my wife, I really realized how frustrating this year has been. Not just for me, but for everyone, right? We've spent pretty much the whole year just patiently waiting and take a few trades and some stocks are happening at higher levels than is normal simply because it's a bare market, right? If you have a cycle low that comes in like this, okay, and it's a bull market, then that cycle low is expected to hold. But if that same cycle low is your invalidation and we're in a bare market and things are trending down, it's only reasonable to expect to pay more stops, right? So, we've been doing okay. Like, we've been beating the benchmarks. My target for the year in these sort of four year cycle decline years has always been 30% which I think is pretty good. Like if I can hit 30% this year I would still consider that elite. I don't think you'll find a hedge fund anywhere on earth that will hit 30% this year let alone any of the other funds or anything like that. And then of course when we get some four years I expect to massively outperform those benchmarks once more just like we did in the prior three years. But it was talking to my wife last night I realized like this has been a very slow boring frustrating year right not many trades but we are getting through it right it's just a case of not getting disheartened right not giving up keep the risk manage keep applying the strategy and like I said if we can get another 10% out this year I think I still call that elite at least by my own standards so I mean if you disagree let me know in the comments let me know how many percentages you think we should be hitting this year but to be honest I'll be very happy with 30% and 20% I don't know I think that's okay I think if we can hit 20% that's Okay. Personally, but I like to hold myself to a higher standard than that. So, I don't know. Let me know what you guys think. And then hopefully if we can just get this year kind of out the way, we can be back to bull market camel long and strong, continue to push, right? Keep pushing the buy button, all of that jazz. And then people will be mad at me for keep stacking positions and taking additional risk and all that stuff as opposed to being mad for me for saying wait two more weeks. But it is what it is. So, have a fantastic weekend. Hope you're all doing well and until next time, take care for me. All the best. Cheers. Bye. He's the man to see. Rocking the market with his contrarian scream. Tra like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key ride.