Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this breaking news video of Tuesday, October 14, 2025, facing a crypto market, ouch ouch ouch, unfortunately red, not pretty, so red that it looks like my skin is burning, as the red reflects on me. It's not very beautiful since the opening of the Asian markets. They are very seller-oriented. We can see candles of -4, -5, -8 that are lingering. It's not beautiful at all this morning. Here, we see that traditional finance, here is the SP500 Wall Street, which closed in a magnificent green, like the cryptos that spent the whole day going up. On the other hand, if we look at the futures, they are red, not beautiful. They are red, not beautiful. Why all of a sudden from yesterday, everything green, we switch to red, not beautiful this morning?
So, first, the technical factor, the fact that after a big crash and a small rebound, well, nothing says it can't continue to fall. And then, the fundamental factor, we also have the Chinese president who said a few hours ago that he was ready for a trade war against the United States. If they want a trade war, they will have it. Well, he also set a good mood. So, the two together mean that, well, it's not very beautiful, all of this, in terms of the economic calendar.
So today, Jerome Powell is due to speak at 6:20 PM. Will he talk about the economy? Will he talk about interest rate projections and all that? Well, if he talks about the economy, because sometimes he doesn't talk about the economy, but since it's marked as a major event, I think he will talk more about the economy. So, you understand, there are two solutions. If Powell gives a speech in favor of an interest rate cut for the end of the month, traders will be rather happy, rather bullish. If he gives a somewhat bearish speech, in a mode of "there is no macro... no macroeconomics," given that the American government is closed, the shutdown, remember, they haven't yet voted on how much they will spend, they haven't yet voted on how much more they will indebt the country for the budget. And so, well, everything is closed, everyone is at home, no macro figures. This week we were supposed to have the PPI, the Producer Price Index, which gives us an idea of what it costs at the producer level, if prices rise, it's passed on to the consumer, inflation, you see, we would have had important data, and finally, well, we have nothing, it's empty. So Powell will speak, if he gives a not-so-good speech, in a mode of "well, since there is no data this month, we have no employment data, we have no inflation data, we have nothing... well, I'm doing nothing," you see. And if he does nothing, no interest rate cut at the end of the month, it will be doubly not beautiful for the markets, doubly, really. So we will be watching at 6:20 PM. What will Powell say?
So, the news, which ones this morning, which ones are they? So, first, we have an on-chain analysis platform called Santiment, like sentiment, that's funny, which tells us that traders, well, intelligent, in quotes, what is called "smart money" in English jargon, smart money is those who are a bit, well, who are used to the market, who have been there for a few years, all that. And well, what have they done? They have done the same thing as always, which is they have "bought the dip," they have "bought the crash," and who sold? Well, it's the newcomers. So Santiment tells us that the emotions of retailers, retailers are the new investors, often dictate that Bitcoin and altcoin prices are about to do the opposite. Since this summer, well, I'm repeating myself, I think I'm boring you because I've been saying this all summer, it didn't look good. Since this summer, there have been big bearish divergences, investors are too bullish, everyone was calling "To the Moon." And when everyone is calling "To the Moon" with bearish divergences, and on top of that, you have the cherry on top, which is the open interest exploding, particularly open interest driven by the rise of Ethereum, which caused leveraged positions to explode upwards with Ethereum reaching a small record at 4950. That didn't look good. Be careful, it's simple, I repeat it to you every week. Every week. And so, I took small profits, I made a stablecoin reserve like that at the end of summer, I was ready for a potential market crash. What I repeated to you, and so, I didn't pull this out of my hat. I don't have a crystal ball, my name isn't Nostradamus or Finamus. It's simply that when, after a while, all these factors are together, well, either we are cautious, we say "uh oh, this could smell like an ugly correction." So, I'm in cautious mode, I put stablecoins aside. Or, we are rather like, unfortunately, the newcomers, in "no, it's To the Moon" mode because he said it was To the Moon, let's go. And so, Santiment, what do they tell us? Well, they tell us that the emotions of retailers dictate Bitcoin and altcoin prices, which are about to do the opposite. So the market never does what the crowd wants, and it didn't fail. Same music, same joke every time for all these years.
So, cryptos collapsed on Friday. Now, be careful, a correction, I accept that, but the collapse was due to several things, notably, well, Trump who lit the fuse, okay, and many are blaming. So there are many articles going around, you can look at them. I didn't want to share an article because, well, many, for example, are talking about Binance, many are on Binance, and I don't want to be told "Foufie, you're attacking Binance, blah blah blah." But in short, many blame Binance for the crash. Why? Because Binance normally has these little safes, you see, these little pactols to support them if there are liquidity crises, liquidity shortages, and all that. It bugged, but it bugged because Binance also did things not the way they should have, not cleanly. So they played with fire within their infrastructure, if you want, Binance, and I'm staying a bit vague, but if you want to dig, you can dig because I don't want to attack, you see, Binance. And so, many blame, in any case, really Binance, which is a major player in the flash crash, along with the stablecoin TerraUSD (UST), which had a depeg of over 30% loss for a stablecoin. That stings, and it triggered many ugly things. There's also the wrapped Bitcoin from Binance, WBTC, and similarly for Solana, which completely decoupled due to their bad algorithms at Binance. And so, yes, so some really blame Binance. The fact that, okay, Trump triggered a small correction, but what happened was at Binance that triggered impossible wicks, and with the arbitrage and all that happened, well, boom. Some also blame Hyperliquidity, the DEX, because there are big whales there who took big positions and it liquidated them heavily.
So, in short, what you can see if you dig through articles here and there is that the crash itself was caused by two actors. Binance first, and Hyperliquidity second. That's what I saw. So you can go look for articles. Well, we are not here to say "yes, it's his fault, it's his fault." But since some are asking questions because many say "but no, it's not Trump who could have triggered a crash." I agree. Trump didn't trigger the crash. Okay. Trump lit a small spark of correction, but the crash, what really happened, never seen before in the crypto world, comes from mismanagement at Binance and also at Hyperliquidity. So, to summarize all that.
In short, and so on Friday, we had one of the four major events of the year, but even the worst in the entire history of crypto. This year, we had, well, Trump's tariff wave at the beginning of the year which hurt the markets. Middle East tensions, Iran, Israel, and company. We also had the Fed which was rather hawkish, saying "no, we won't lower rates" until at some point, well, Trump, sorry, Powell, became bullish because he was being attacked by Trump. And as soon as Powell started saying "yes, we can consider an interest rate cut for the fall," that was this summer, well, then investors became even more euphoric. In short, and finally, it was a "sell the news" on the interest rate cut, you see.
Well, in short. So Santiment tells us that smart traders bought more while the crowd was panicking. It's the same thing that has been happening forever. Well, they tell us that retail traders showed the highest levels of negativity all year. So what happens? Well, every time there are these major events, newcomers who have been here for less than 3 months, short-term holders sell at a loss, and long-term holders, well, they buy. And then, well, the short-term holders simply come back. So Santiment tells us that there was a big hemorrhage in the market on Friday, but investors returned after Trump withdrew his business plan. So when on Sunday he said Trump, "yes, listen, I put in the tariff, but well, we're going to talk with the Chinese president, he's a formidable person, everything will be fine," they came back after losing money, they came back. These are the short-term holders, and they are the ones who make the market go up and down quickly, you see, when you have rises, there are rapid falls. And so Santiment tells us it has become a too common pattern in 2025, the same music every time. Retail trading is shaken by fear, so retail, so a bit like the newcomers, if you want, then comes back to the forefront as soon as it's confirmed that the subject that caused fear was exaggerated or was used wrongly. So, in short, they say "oh my god, we're going to lose, it's falling," and then when it starts to rise again, "oh, but actually no, I shouldn't have." And so that's why it's important to pay attention to emotions. And so Santiment tells us that emotional trading linked to political news continues to dominate market behavior. Clearly, for years, it's been crazy, for years, that's all there is, you see. And so it's probably more than we've ever seen in the 17+ years of crypto history.
So, in short, it tells us what I also think, which is that, well, okay, technical analysis, well, it's very strong, but what's above is important people talking. We had this joke with Elon Musk a few years ago when he spoke, he made candles of +10% or -10% on the market. Then, well, there's Trump when he speaks, he can make candles of +10% or -10%. I mean, it goes fast. Now, wars, they don't do as much anymore. Wars. Now, in quotes, when I say wars, the Ukraine-Russia war, the wars in the Middle East, they move the markets less. Now, what moves the markets are people. Trump, Powell, that's already quite a lot, and they are the first two, you see. So, well, there was also a survey conducted among 1248 crypto users. 80% say they are motivated by fear, you see, when they sell, and 63% admitted that emotional decisions have a negative impact on their portfolio. That's why I always tell you in investing, you must love nothing, fear nothing, you must think like an emotionless robot. And when you manage to do that, your portfolio works well. When I see gigantic red wicks, I say "okay, well, I'm buying." When I see big gigantic green wicks where everyone is calling "To the Moon" and it smells too much of euphoria, I say "here, I'm putting aside some stablecoins." You have to reverse your brain. But that requires experience, unfortunately, it's not the newcomers who can do that, it requires experience.
Second news, Hyperliquidity whale. What is that? So many are attacking a person named Gareth Jean, who is the former CEO of a platform called BitForex, who has denied many accusations against him right now, you see. And why is this causing a bit of a stir in the market? It's because, well, he opened a short just before Trump's announcement when he said "I will impose 100% on China." Well, and why is this gaining momentum right now? Because we have the former CEO, now Chengzao, who shared on Twitter the personal and private information of this Mr. Jean, you see, saying "Look, he's not a nice guy, there's insider trading, he knew because he opened a short before." And Jean already claimed that it's not his portfolio. It's a client's portfolio. Well, whether it's him or a client, we don't know. And why is he being talked about? Well, because he has 100,000 Bitcoins in his portfolio. 100,000 Bitcoins, you see. Well, and what did he do? He went on Hyperliquidity and opened a short for almost a billion dollars. It's 735 million. Then he added a little bit, you see, he opened a short. So already, when someone comes and says "I'm opening a short for over 700 million," the market already goes boom, it takes a little hit. You see, that's for sure. So it directly hits, not the opening of the short, but it hits twice due to the butterfly effect. It's that when you have a giant whale like that, ah, you have a whale opening almost a billion, that gets people talking. So that's seen. And other whales are doing the same. That's how it works. When you have a big whale doing something, some say "uh oh, this is an important person, he has a lot of money, here's what he's doing. Let's do like him." So there's FOMO. So there are others too, other whales who are less big, who are also opening shorts. And boom, boom, boom, it hit the market. And on top of that, you have the pre-coup that arrives, Trump. Hello, 100%, you arrive, you move away, bam. So already, you have a double effect, a big shock, selling on the market, and then behind that, at Binance, the algorithms go crazy, they do anything. Bam, on Hyperliquidity, it also destroys many whales who had opened long positions. Boom, it causes selling on the market, it deposits from Binance, the algorithms. They make everything fall, blah blah blah. You understand that it's basically a lot of small things that have been added up that caused, well, this little flash crash.
So many talk about insider trading. Yes, he knew, he knew, he knew. Well, there are two solutions. Either he knew because he knows someone close to Trump who told him "be careful, Trump is going to announce 100% tariffs." Maybe he doesn't know the Trump family, but maybe someone around. First thing. Second thing is that, well, he sensed that things were bad, so he opened a short. We won't know. Well, in any case, we just know the consequence, and that, well, there were some ugly things, ugly crashes.
Well, last news, to end on positive news anyway. Some traders and analysts think that Bitcoin could start again and go towards $150,000. Already, if we look at an interesting chart here, which shows the realized price of short-term holders, it's around $113,000, and we see that nice bottoms have been forming since 2022 around this line, meaning sometimes it goes a bit lower to capitulate these short-term holders, so an average price around $113,000, then it goes back up, you see, it's also between the two. So as long as we stay around $113,000 plus or minus a few thousand dollars, it will be fine. It's sure that if $100,000 is lost, then it looks worse, you see. So, so for now, some say "well, it's fine, there's no problem."
We also have something interesting, which is that Glassnode showed that the average purchase cost of holders of less than 1 month has gone above that of holders of less than 3 months. This means that holders of less than 1 month are buying more aggressively than those of less than 3 months. Ah, so what does that mean? That the newcomers who arrive, they buy, they buy, they buy aggressively. Well, that's rather good news, you see. On the other hand, be careful, these same newcomers, if something ugly happens, they can also sell at a loss out of fear. That's the problem with holders who have arrived recently. Short-term holders.
Well, we are also told that with the flash crash that occurred, Bitcoin went to search between $102,000 and $104,000 on exchanges, well, it quickly went back up to $115, you see. Yesterday it went up to $115, $116, you see. So it's quite crazy. We have Michel van de Poppe who says that the crucial factor is that Bitcoin maintains its support above $113,000. We also have another trader called Micky Bull who says that we are still in bullish territory. Well, let's say that Bitcoin recovering $115 is still pretty good, you see. Well, we also have Dan Crypto Trade, who is very followed on Twitter, who sees Bitcoin between $120,000 and $150,000, and they tell us "Look at the Rainbow Price Chart, we're going to go between $140,000 and $150,000." We also have our followed analyst on Twitter called Crypto Gel, who stated that Bitcoin, okay, had a flash crash like in 2017, but that it doesn't particularly bother him and that the target remains at $150,000. Well, so we still have bullish analyses. After, you'll tell me "yes, there are always people calling To the Moon, To the Moon, and company."
Well, what do I think about this? If I have made a nice aside, a nice comparison yesterday between the flash crash we had in 2024, the story of the car trades on the yen, and what is happening now. I think we could have a small bearish leg to retest the wick or go not very far. And if we do that, it will form a nice little bearish channel. What is also called a regular flat in jargon. And if this structure forms well, then it's an explosion all the way up. So I think we will have one last corrective wave before going back up. And anyway, we see that every day in analysis, of course. Thank you for listening. Sending you kisses. Have a good day. See you later. Bye bye.