Transcription
Week 17, quarterback fantasy football tier list. Welcome to the championship, fellas. We are going to be going through everything you need to know to set your quarterback fantasy lineups.
Two quick housekeeping notes. Schedule this week. Quarterback tier list, tight end tier list on Tuesday. Wednesday, the day before Christmas, Christmas Eve will be matchups that matter. A little bit earlier than I usually do it, but there will be updates in the pin comment throughout the week. If you submit a question to the site, just make sure you guys know that we will not be live on Christmas Day. So, we'll give you answers via the site, typing back and forth and whatnot.
If you have a question about a Thursday player, you can submit questions down below. However, if you want to wait till Saturday or Sunday, we will be live before both of those games kickoff if they involve players in those games. And then u Thursday will be off. Friday, we'll have the wide receiver tier list from Danny. And then Saturday, running back tier list in the morning before those games kick off. So that's the schedule. That's what we got to know here.
Let's get into the injuries for the week. Jordan Love and Malik Willis is the big quarterback injury that people are going to be monitoring. Jordan Love left last week's game with a concussion. They played Saturday. They played Saturday again this week. So, it's a 7-day to clear the concussion protocol. It's doable. It's probably like a 40-50% chance he does clear the protocol. However, because he doesn't have that extra day off, if he was playing Sunday, it would be a lot more likely that he could play. I would say it's a 30 to 50% chance that he clears. If he doesn't, Malik Willis probably starts. He's banged up, but it sounds like he could play through it. I have ranked both Jordan Love and Malik Willis in the tier list in the event that they are the starter. Just so you guys can get a good idea of who you would actually play, especially for superflex folks who could maybe pick up Malik Willis.
Lamar Jackson most recent report is a bad bruise to his midsection back area. Maybe he can play through it, but the Ravens, even though they need a win and the Steelers to lose to keep their division and playoff hopes alive, because if that happens, then they would play in week 18 for the division. He's probably gonna try and play through this, but it is risky given how bad he's been, how it could affect his mobility and the fact that he could reinjure that injury. So, I do have Lamar Jackson pretty significantly downgraded. And again, he has just not played well as of late.
Let's get into the tier list itself. Starting it off with the Josh Allen tier, who is only Josh Allen, of course, they're going up against the Philadelphia Eagles this week. Buffalo, it is in Buffalo, which is always great news. They play very well at home. The Bills are facing the third ranked Philadelphia Eagles defense for fantasy quarterbacks though. Even though this is a must-win game for Buffalo, try and keep pace with the Patriots, etc. Josh Allen is coming off of a dud. And in the last two seasons, when he's coming off of a dud, he's been a top five quarterback the following week in four of the last six duds that he's posted, dating back to the beginning of last season. And the other two games were quarterback 14 and quarterback 17. So, generally, he usually bounces back pretty well. 21.64 64 points per game post dud, which is what he posted against the Cleveland Browns. Again, on the road in Cleveland, that was a tough game environment for him to play in.
Moving in to the next tier of quarterbacks, these are the must starts, as in if you got them, you got to throw them out there. I don't really care about matchups. I don't really care about who you have behind him. Drake May in three straight games, he's got 20 fantasy points. The last two quarterbacks to face the Jets. Both threw for 300 plus yards. Tyler Shock, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence, of course, having the blow up six touchdown game two weeks ago. The Jets are 28th against fantasy quarterbacks and the Patriots I believe would officially lock up the AFC East with a win in this game and especially if Buffalo were to lose. So Drake May definitely an excellent start this week.
Joe Burrow the next must start that I have here. The Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals game has a 53 and a half point overunder. It is the highest on the slate. The Bengals are implied for 30.25 of that because they're playing at home in this game. 29 points last week versus Miami. The last four games, Kirk Cousins, CJ Strad, Baker Mayfield, and Matthew Stafford all finished as top 15 quarterbacks against this Cardinals defense. And Matthew Stafford finishes a top five quarterback against this Cardinals defense because what do the Cardinals like to do? They like to throw the ball. And when you're throwing the ball on one side of the ball, you typically have uptempo on the other side of the ball as well. And Joe Burrow with T. Higgins and Jamar Chase healthy is going to be in for a monster type of ceiling performance. So, you definitely want him in your lineup.
Same goes for Matthew Stafford. Now, I'm sorry I doubted you, Matthew. Last week, I was worried about the weather. I was worried about at Seattle in that one, and I ranked you at the bottom of the, you know, QB8, QB9 range, I think, is where he was for me. You're a beast, man. 30 fantasy points on the road versus Seattle, a top three quarterback on the week. He's implied for 29 plus on Monday Night Football at the Atlanta Falcons, who are 20th ranked against fantasy quarterbacks. And you just look at these last eight or nine games or so. And honestly, just over the course of the whole season, Matthew Stafford has two or more touchdowns in every single game except for week one and week six. That's how good and how consistent and how dominant this guy has been. For my money, the MVP of the NFL. And I did actually place a bet on him to win MVP uh $15 to win 525 at the beginning of the season. So, I feel very good about that bet.
Let's move into the stardom tier. So, generally speaking, you guys have these players, you're probably starting them. They are all very, very good projections this week. Brock Pury versus the 22nd ranked Chicago Bears. Back-to-back weeks with a top four fantasy quarterback performance. Party is a wagon right now. You got to ride the wave of this 49ers team. He's a monster. They're implied for 27.25 points. The Bears have tightened up on defense the last two weeks, though. And George KD, we don't know what his health status is. He left um last night's game with an injury and did not return. So, it's possible he will not be back for this game and they didn't have Ricky Pieraw back for Monday Night Football. So, if Pery only has Jawan Jennings and some of the other guys to throw to. I would probably move him at least below the next two guys, but maybe to the bottom of this tier entirely if George KD can't go. But generally speaking, he is an excellent play and it's a great matchup against the Chicago Bears at home on Sunday Night Football.
Jaylen Herz versus the Buffalo Bills. Now, Jaylen Herz has been solid this year, especially as a runner the last, you know, seven or eight games or so. He's consistently been running like seven plus times in four of his last six games. He's consistently getting to like 30 plus rushing yards. We haven't seen a rushing touchdown from Jaylen Herz in four games. So, he is pretty due for a rushing touchdown, a tush push, whatever the case is. Even despite that, Jaylen Herz has been pretty solid for Fantasy, a top 10 quarterback in back-to-back games. I would rank him higher than this, but this game only has a 43 and a half point overunder in Buffalo. It's cold there. Maybe there's going to be some weather. I'm not really too worried about it. Hurts in a good matchup would be at the top of this tier and maybe even into the next tier. This one is so so, but this game environment could always shoot out because Josh Allen versus the Eagles definitely both good offenses who are capable of getting fiery and scoring a lot of points.
Dak Prescott at the Washington Commanders, their 30th against fantasy quarterbacks. Dak obviously with one of the best matchups on the week. Washington 30th against quarterbacks and they're starting a third string QB in Josh Johnson. 18 plus fantasy points in five of his last six games. Their defense is ass. The last three quarterbacks that have faced Washington scored as top 10 options. Herz dart JJ McCarthy. So if you have Dak Prescott and again if you wanted to move Dak Prescott ahead of Brock Pury assuming George KD misses that would definitely make sense. If you want to move Dak Prescott ahead of Jaylen Herz even because Dak Prescott has a better matchup, don't blame you on that. If you have to decide between two of these three quarterbacks, I don't really envy you because all three of them could have monster 30 plus point performances and all of them are set up very well.
Same goes for Jacobe Brassette who at Cincinnati 31st against fantasy quarterbacks is a great matchup for him. QB1 in every single game since he's been the starter up until last week. Now, the Cardinals did not run a lot of offensive plays against Atlanta. Atlanta ran the ball so well that the Cardinals only had three possessions in the second half of the game. The Bengals are historically, and I mean historically, bad against tight ends. And if you check notes real quick, who do the Arizona Cardinals have? The best tight end in the NFL. They have allowed like 130 plus receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. And Marvin Harrison is going to be in his second game back. Michael Wilson of course out there playing very well. I face against Jacobe Brassette, Trey McBride, and Michael Wilson in my home league final. And I am scared shitless that this game absolutely goes bonkers. I have Higgins at least. So I get some, you know, repercussions of that. But Jacobe Brassette in the Cardinals could go absolutely nuclear this week. 40 plus pass attempts, three plus touchdowns. If you have Brassette, you definitely have to start him unless you have some of these other guys I have ranked ahead of him.
Trevor Lawrence versus the Indianapolis Colts. They're 16th against fantasy quarterbacks. And that is actually pre um what Brock Pury did to them last night. So, they're probably going to be an even easier matchup once I update the charts here. Since the Jaguars buy, Trevor Lawrence QB2 in points per game at 22.7. Only Josh Allen has been better. The Colts just got bent over a table by Brock Pery and the 49ers last night with no Buckner, no sauce, no Charvarius Ward. This is a bottom five to 10 NFL defense. And Trevor Lawrence finished QB10 last time these two teams played about 3 weeks ago. So, Trevor Lawrence, if you have him on waiverss right now, he's available in like half of leagues. I would pick him up and start him over literally every other quarterback that I haven't mentioned so far because he has that good of a matchup and the Jaguars are playing that well.
Uh moving into the next group of quarterbacks here, these guys are more streamers, guys that I would imagine a lot of you guys are deciding between. Caleb Williams at the San Francisco 49ers. They're 21st against fantasy quarterbacks. QB8 last week against Green Bay is um obviously excellent and especially knowing that Romo Dun was out, Luther Burden was out, and Cole KT was coming into the game banged up. The fact that Caleb Williams was still QB8 in that game in the cold of Chicago there, that was a pretty difficult matchup. This game is in San Francisco. It's probably going to be good weather. Caleb Williams runs. He can put up big performances as we've seen this season. He put up um three games or four games, sorry, of top five, top six performances this season. If Odun is back, if Burden is back, I could even see moving him up into the next tier. He's implied for 24.25 points in a 51 point overunder game. And we know what San Francisco just did on the other side of the ball. um and they can put up points for sure and keep Caleb throwing. So, um a guy that I think if you have him a very very good streaming option this week.
Jared Goff at the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this one scares me a little bit because Minnesota has put some quarterbacks in a blender. Look at Jackson Dart, for example. That that was an absolutely brutal game from him last week and I sincerely apologize to those of you guys that maybe started Jackson Dart because I had him ranked as a QB1. Um but in my defense, he was QB2 in points per game since taking over the starting job and just had an absolutely horrendous game. Goff's on a heater, man. Top nine quarterback in four of his last five games. He scored 19.4 points versus Minnesota back in week nine, the first time that they played. And that was a game that was actually uh the Lions didn't win. They lost that game. But this one is in Minnesota, but it's in a dome, which is great news for fantasy. And Max Bromer at quarterback for the other team is probably going to equal Detroit Lions. High time of possession, short fields, all that kind of stuff. So that's why I like Jared Goff this week. Even if the Minnesota defense puts up a good fight, I think by the second half, they'll figure some things out, get some turnovers, some short fields, some high time of possession, and be able to have a 20 plus point performance from Jared Goff. So I like him this week.
Justin Herbert versus the first ranked Houston Texans. So very difficult matchup, but Justin Herbert, I said of the two of them last week between Dak and Herbert in that same game, I would prefer Herbert. That was obviously a great call and definitely a crucial win for the Chargers. Now, this win is absolutely their biggest game of the season because if they beat Houston, they set up a game against the Denver Broncos next week for the division and especially if Denver loses against the Kansas City Chiefs. They're healthy on offense. If they win, they host Denver for the division in week 18. Texans are a great defense, but they allow 50% more points per drive on the road versus at home this year. This is a defense that plays better at home. So, the fact that the Chargers are at home for this game definitely bodess a little bit better for Justin Herbert. still a very difficult matchup, but I would actually be feel I would feel pretty comfortable trusting him knowing that all of his weapons are healthy right now.
Bo Nicks at the Kansas City Chiefs and I actually have the decision in our listener reddraft league final between Bo Knicks and Caleb Williams. I'm of course of going with Caleb Williams because I have him ranked higher. Bo Knicks going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kind of the same rationale as Jared Goff here because Bo Knicks generally all season has been like an 18 point per game producer. When the opposing team, Kansas City, is starting Chris Oluakin, you probably will feel good about how much you're going to have the football, how much time of possession you're going to have, what kind of short fields you might have. The Chargers losing to the Houston Texans would lock up the division, so to speak, for the Denver Broncos. Because if Denver beats um the Kansas City Chiefs here, um which they should with a third string quarterback, then they lock up the division and maybe the number one overall seed depending on what happens with the New England Patriots. Kansas City is better against the run than they are against the pass. Bon Knicks in the passing game will have to win this game for them if they want to secure that division and maybe the number one seed this week.
Jackson Dart against the Las Vegas Raiders is the last guy I've ranked in this tier here. Again, Dart was awful. I apologize if you guys started him, but it was only his second game all season with less than 15 fantasy points. And he's been a top 10 quarterback in 60% of his starts this year. Raiders are playing scrappy at home, which is what we just saw against the Houston Texans. This game is for first pick in the draft, believe it or not. Because if the Raiders win this game, um the Giants have the first pick. And if the Giants win this game, then the Raiders have the first pick. That is how much this could swing. And I also think that the Giants could drop to as low as like four or five in the draft order if they end up winning this game. So going to be a crucial draft tankathon type of bull. Um but if you do need a quarterback, I think Jackson Dart's a pretty good one to start.
Um, moving down a little bit here, we have Jordan Love, which is what I mentioned already. If he starts, I have him ranked quarterback 15. He is in the concussion protocol right now. Does he play Saturday night? That is the question that people are going to have if they have Jordan Love. I would say because he played Saturday and he's playing again this Saturday. It's like a 30 to 50% chance at best that he plays this week. I would on waiverss try and prepare that you're going to be without him. If Malik Willis starts for the Packers, he ran 10 times in three quarters. I have ranked both of them in the event that uh Will Will Willis is the starter and Love hasn't cleared. And an easy way to protect yourself is just pick up Malik Willis behind Jordan Love if you're relying on Jordan Love to play. Um, but he is in the desperation plays tier. So you might have other better options on the wire like a Trevor Lawrence, like a Jacobe Brassette, like maybe even a Caleb Williams or somebody like that. So keep that in mind. Jordan Love, if he starts, it's a pretty good matchup for him against the Baltimore Ravens. The Packers are at home in this game. Jordan Love has been good this year. He's just been a little bit inconsistent, but when they're at home, he usually plays better.
Moving into Baker Mayfield, who of course has not been good, especially over the last couple of games. He has zero quarterback one week since week 11 versus Buffalo. And even in that game, he only had 16.8 points per game and had a top eight performance there. His last truly good game for fantasy was against New England in week 10. The Dolphins are beatable. We just saw Burrow and the Bengals just absolutely torch them and light them on fire. The Bucks season is on the line. Again, when when there's motivation like this, it's something that especially when you're Baker Mayfield, chip on the shoulder type of guy, I think they're going to win this game and I think they're going to put up a good offensive performance. If they win this game, the Carolina Panthers are coming to Tampa Bay in week 18 for the division. It does not matter what happens in the Seattle game because if Carolina wins, then they're still playing for the division. If Carolina loses and Tampa Bay wins, they're still playing for the division. As long as Tampa Bay beats Miami, that week 18 game is going to be for the NFC South title. So Baker Mayfield and the Bucs need a confidence boosting win here. And playing against Quinners in the Dolphins, similar to what I said with Bromer and Auakin and stuff, maybe you get some turnovers, maybe you get some short fields. Definitely something to consider there.
Um Tyler Shuck been very consistent, been very solid over his last six games. He's been a top 15 quarterback in five of them. Very solid matchup versus Tennessee. If you look at the quarterbacks Tennessee has played over the last six games or so, Perie, Trevor Lawrence, Shadur Sanders all lit this defense up for top four scoring weeks in the last month. Even Sam Darnold and Davis Mills the week before that or the weeks before that were top 12 guys. So, this is a very exploitable defense. Tyler Shuck is playing well. He's got Jawan Johnson and a all these guys to throw to. I do think that he is a very, very solid streamer. If you lost Lamar and he doesn't play, if you lost Jordan Love and he doesn't play, if you lost Mahomes two weeks ago and you need to ride the wave of Tyler Shuck, I think he's a very solid streaming quarterback this week. Probably the best one available widely in a lot of leagues.
Lamar Jackson since week three, Lamar has been a QB1 just twice. Since week three, he's been a QB1 just twice. He's been absolutely brutal this season since suffering that hamstring injury. He's dropped sub 10 fantasy points five times this year. This is a painful injury. The Ravens have their season on the line. They have to beat Green Bay this week and the Browns got to beat the Steelers in order for that week 18 game against Pittsburgh to be for the division. So depending on what happens in the Steelers game, it might be all for not. But keep in mind, they play Saturday night. So it's not like Lamar can wait to see what happened in the Steelers game and then decide whether or not he's going to play or not. No, they play first. So he's got to decide, is he playing against the Green Bay Packers and hoping that the Cleveland Browns can pull an upset at home versus Pittsburgh. So Lamar, I would say if you have him, you probably don't want to start him. I got 17 quarterbacks ranked ahead of the guy, including Tyler Shuck this week. So, um, the mobility being an issue potentially with this injury, the reinjury risk, and the fact that he's just been bad, is why I'm not probably starting Lamar Jackson in most cases.
Malik Willis is my next ranked quarterback here. Like I said, if Jordan Love is out, this is where Malik Willis would rank for me. He had uh only about three quarters of play. They didn't let him throw the ball a ton, but he did run the ball 10 times for 44 yards, and that's what Malik Willis brings to the table. So, from a purely like standalone fantasy perspective, if he starts, he's a viable streamer in case you were relying on Jordan Love or in case you were relying on somebody else. Maybe you lost Mahomes or something two weeks ago.
Sam Darnold, um, he's volatile and the Panthers are quite solid on defense, but JSN is inevitable. This offense can put up points against any defense in the league. So, that's kind of how Darnold would get there. If they just get hot on offense and beat the Carolina Panthers with like a 30 bomb on the board, which they're implied for a pretty decent amount of points in this game, um 25 to be specific, that's how Sam Darnold gets there. So, if you want to start Sam Darnold cuz you're like, I don't have good quarterback options this week. I'm just going to start the quarterback of a good offense. That definitely makes some sense to me.
Same kind of rationale for CJ Strad. Although, I will say at Los Angeles, they're second against fantasy quarterbacks. They're a top five pass defense across the board. I'm not really wanting to mess with CJ Strad. Look at what they did to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last week. Dak had a fine game, but he didn't have like a blowup performance. And CJ Strad only has three quarterback one performances all year in 12 games. So, this is not a quarterback who's been consistent. Not a quarterback who, unless he's not in a Smash matchup, I really trust.
And then Gino Smith, same thing. I mean, does anybody want to play Gino Smith in the fantasy championship? I doubt it. However, if you're really desperate or if you're in a superflex league, he's a true desperation play. The Giants are horrific against all quarterbacks. Gino's got a few decent games this season. You could do worse if you're truly desperate. The way he gets there is Bowowers obviously cooking. But as far as waiverwire quarterbacks, I would rather have Tyler Shuck. I would rather have Sam Darnold. I would rather have Malik Willis if he starts.
Um, moving into the final tier of quarterbacks that I'll even really briefly mention here. This is superflex leagues only. If you're in a one quarterback league, there's no way you should start one of these guys. Some of the guys that have good matchups here, Josh Johnson against the Dallas Cowboys. Again, I know it's gross, but Josh Johnson runs the football. And the Dallas Cowboys are 32nd against the fantasy football quarterback position. And Josh Johnson looked really bad. And I I realize he's he just looked terrible against the Philadelphia Eagles. But the Cowboys are that bad of a defense. And um my more important point on Josh Johnson is that if you guys are in Dynasty Superflex baseball leagues, pick him up. Cuz if you're playing for something this week, whether it's a third place prize or you're in the championship, he could hit your lineup. I picked him up or I put a waiver claim in in two leagues that I'm in and I realize now I'm probably telling my opponent that I did that. But if in a best ball format, he could actually hit your lineup.
Philip Rivers versus Jacksonville. Again, he might be throwing a lot because the Jags can put up points. They're 19th against fantasy QBs. Kurt Cousins um versus the Rams on Monday Night Football. They're at home for that game. It's in a dome. Could end up being highscoring. Bryce Young versus the Seahawks is a bad matchup. They're ninth against fantasy QBs. Rogers at Cleveland. Bad matchup. We saw them just take down Josh Allen. and Cam Ward versus New Orleans. Also a bad matchup as well. So again, don't start any of the guys in this tier unless you absolutely have to. And then again, these guys, Quinn, Shadur Sanders, Max Bromer, Brady Cook, Chris Aluan on no circumstances should they be in your lineup. I'm just showing you where I have them ranked if for whatever reason you care.
Um, but yeah, that is the quarterback tier list. Appreciate you guys for sticking around to the end. Um again, the housekeeping notes, I'll repeat them again. Tight ends coming later today. Wednesday, matchups that matter. Thursday, we're off for Christmas. Friday, wide receiver tier list. Saturday running back tier list in the morning. And again, if you submit questions that involve Thursday Night Football players to the site, we will not be live before the games on Thursday for Christmas cuz it's Christmas morning. I'm not answering questions. I love you guys, but I don't love you that much. And then number two, also, if you want an answer to those questions, we will answer them in the DMs. Uh Wednesday night, we might go through and sweep those questions and um and get those answered for you, assuming they involve Thursday players. But we will be live Saturday uh before the 4:30 kickoff of the first game. and we'll be live Sunday morning. So, if you want to just save your questions till then, go ahead and do it. But, if you do have a Thursday player that you need advice on, we can get that answered for you as well. So, that'll be linked down below in the description. If you um want to submit uh teams uh for review or whatever the case is, go ahead and hit that link down below. If you do want our week 17 rankings, they're available on Flock Fantasy, but of course, we'll be kind of giving them away throughout the week in these videos. Appreciate you guys for sticking around. Like the video if you enjoyed. Subscribe. Comment down below if you guys got to your fantasy championship or not. But with that being said, peace out and I'll talk to you soon.