Transcription
Well, good morning, good afternoon, and of course, good evening, Traders from across the globe. Welcome, welcome to my 2893 edition of ShortTerm Trading Live with Oscar. And before we do anything else, do I get to take a bow for that insane call, or what? I mean, really, the last two days I gave out targets. 5400 was the E-mini S&P target; it was 547 and a half before I stepped in to do this video. How about that, guys, huh? Now that's a testament to technical analysis. Anybody can do that. I just simply gave you a projection from a flag. If you'd like to learn how to do that yourselves, very exciting.
Number five right here on the board: Omni Camp, May/June. We haven't had one in a while. Out of town, and I'll tell you what we're going to do. Omni May/June, it's going to be here in Vegas, or your choice in Europe. It could be the UK, anywhere in Europe, or the Netherlands. We have fans all over the Netherlands. Well, I get—I get the emails all the time asking me to do an Omni Camp there. So here's what I'm going to tell you: If you want to learn how to make these calls, if you would like to spend four days with me in an immersive Omni camp where I could teach you Oscar's Market Navigational Indicator, I could teach the Omni to you. If you would—would like to learn that, we can do it either here in Vegas or in Europe. You've got to go to omniobootcamp.com and fill out the application. In that application, tell me your preferred country of origin, wherever you want us to have this camp, and if there's enough Omniacs in that area, I will be coming out to see you.
Now, remember, Traders, no matter how good we are with charts, this is a risky endeavor. Put your stops in first; never trade without them. Know the risks behind trading. But boy, a testament to technical analysis, right? Let's just give that a round of applause again. All right. So what's going to happen now? Well, in tonight's lesson, there's going to be some cryptocurrencies in our chart segment. Number two on the board: Gold hits a short-term turning point, which I pointed out to you two days ago, so we'll look at that chart. US indices, E-mini S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow Jones Transportation Average—we're going to look at charts about those, where they are now, where it looks like we're—it's been insane out there. Volatility has been out of control. You know, in plain English, when the hits the fan in this business, come to livewithoscar.com. The Omni really catches this right now. We've made fantastic calls for these last few days. Omni's caught very little of it in the indices; we keep not getting filled. We made some money in gold today, but we didn't catch the indices. But hey, it's just getting warmed up, you know. The Omni is going to be all over this, so hang out with us at livewithoscar.com. Make sure you show—show up. I'm in that live trading room, and it's free to you; no credit cards. So US indices, we're going to talk about those. Then, in the chart segment, longer-term outlook, the stock market—what does all of this mean for longer term? And then, of course, we've got the Omni boot camp coming. Make sure you go to omniobootcamp.com, fill out those applications now so I can start setting up. I will tell you this: It has to happen by May/June because I don't like to do Omni camps in the heat, and it gets hot here, and once it gets hot summertime, I don't like doing camps. So fill out those applications. Let's get one more in before the summertime, and we'll go from there. All right, Tra—
So for trading on April 4th, that is Friday—today's Thursday, right?—that is Friday. We've got some good stuff to look at. We're not going to waste any time; we're going to go right to it. Those cryptos, you know, we're at another spot there. Sorry to say it, doesn't look beautiful. Gold, you'll get your chance to get back in, but now isn't the moment. Indices are all over the map. Long term, you'll see that it's coming up very shortly. So I want to take you to those charts now because this is very important information. The Omni's been keeping us absolutely in tune this week with all this great stuff, right? So let me get this video out now. Let's get to the chart segment, and you'll see for yourselves what I'm looking at.
So if you do want to show up at Omni Camp, I can show you what some of our Omni Camp participants have to say. Take a look at this quick clip, and I promise—promise you—you will be saying the same things, if not more, once Omni Camp's over. Have a quick look. I—I know 10% of the Traders uh, make money, and 90% uh, are—are losers, and I want to be by the 10%. Seeing is believing; that's what most people believe. I'm more skeptical than that. Doing is believing. Okay, I came here three days of training, and after three days, every prediction that I made was correct. It works. They don't say it works; I saw it work. Okay, Traders, so you've seen that, right? Now I want to remind you of something, and then we're going to go look at some great charts. When you're in a trade, especially when you're in a trade, we know the stop got put in first, right? Don't lie to me. You—you put them in first, right? People, put your stops in first. Then, when you're in a trade and that stop's getting threatened, instead of canceling the stop, instead of changing stuff, instead of making a cardinal sin and suddenly cost-averaging into a trade where you never planned on cost-averaging to begin with, instead of letting the stop get hit, we don't do any of that. Instead, we say something that helps us out, and by now you should all know what that is. Say it with me, guys. You ready? 1, 2, 3, Stop! [Music][Applause][Music] Emotions are rock and roll, Traders. Now let's go look at some charts.
Traders, Bitcoin daily bar chart. Same chart you've been seeing in videos for months now. Since this average seems to have just taken it over, and it seems that Wall Street has taken control of that average, we were above it just yesterday, right? Looked beautiful on Wednesday; we were above it. Well, here's where we ended up on Thursday's close, right back down. Failed again, settled here, dropped below that average, and as you can see, that average is very important to Bitcoin. We don't care why; we don't reinvent wheels; we just put them in our car and drive very fast with them. Why—why Wall Street's doing that, we don't care; just use it for yourselves. Right now we are below it, and until we get back above, you must sell rallies in Bitcoin. Ethereum does not look any better. Look at this channel it's been in, and just about everything that gets produced here is basically a flag all the way down. This could have been thought of as a bull flag, but that didn't work. Another bear flag, big channel all the way down, falling out of this bear flag. Now you know—you know what I mean; just doesn't look very good.
And now we go to Gold, Traders. Earlier this week I said, you know what, gold isn't a very precarious spot right here. I don't bring gold into too many videos, but I did bring it into this video to give you a heads-up. The Omni is telling us to back off; it was a neutral Omni, and I showed this to you; that's where it was, and this is what happened. How about that, huh? Now wait—wait—wait; that doesn't look like anything, does it? Well, here it is on a daily bar, blown up. That was a daily bar before that I blew up; that's—that's the bar we had on Thursday. Here I presented a video and said you have to be careful now in Gold. The Omni doesn't want us to continue buying; gave you reasoning to show you why it should head back down to the bottom of this, and boom, we've done that. So far, good analysis, right? There's nothing better than technical analysis; I have to tell you. Now we made a few bucks in gold today, but we did not get filled in the indices.
Speaking of which, here we are: E-mini S&P daily bar. So we had the big down move after the double top goes into a flag. We had the gap; we talked about the gap has to get filled; it did get filled, and then we had a flag projection around 55 A2, and the market literally dropped out of the flag and went right down and hit our projection like magic. Just wow, look at that. So the flag projection was hit; then I offered a secondary bear flag projection of 54 400, and this is what happened thus far. Look at that. Oh my goodness, is that not insanity? Look how well analysis works. Now, Traders, as you know, I had these since back here. I told you guys in the video right after we came—right after we got to the bottom of the flag here that I had a projection, and we got to it, and then I told you there'd be a secondary, which I gave out, and we just about got to it. Now 507—well, it's actually 54 0750 was the low we called for; 54, not bad, right? So it may get here, of course, before I'm done with this video, who knows, but the low was 54750 before I did this video.
Now check this out: NASDAQ, just as terrible, right? Look at this; I mean, you look at this and you think, oh my goodness, if I had a 401k, I would run for the hills. Wall Street's running for the hills. We're making bear flags; we're below the 200-bar moving average, right? Bear flag gets formed; here's your pole; here's your flag; down we go; we hit the projection; pops up; now it's heading lower. That just looks terrible, doesn't it? Well, let's go out to the weeklies a little bit; let's calm this down just a little. Now I am not saying there's any bottom today, but look at this weekly chart. I'm looking at a long-term average. I do not break out these averages unless the market does something dynamic. It held here, and it held—or I should say it's being tested right here. That is top day E-mini S&P as of the close on Thursday. Now this is a weekly bar, and the thing about weekly bar charts is that it takes a while before we know, so it might hover here for a week or maybe two before we know if this is going to hold and send us back up. Now you've got to have patience when it comes to a weekly chart, but we're here, and we're getting a test; long-term support test. Well, that's in the weekly E-mini S&P. Now we go out to the Dow Jones. Look what's here: Dow Jones weekly Transportation Average, and one of my really long-term averages is right here being tested, and we've got a solid weekly support line. So we can hang around here a week or two before we know if it held or if it breaks. This is called a support test. Now markets are moving very quickly, so we might get out of here very quickly, out of this area, but for now, going forward, there's positive thinking.
Now I'm going to show you why there's even more positive thinking. Follow me on this. This is the 30-year bond chart. Now Jerome Powell, the Fed, they move interest rates up and down, correct? Well, yes, but if the bond market moves itself down, interest rates move up inherently. Jerome Powell could not possibly stop rates from going up, and what banks will charge when bonds go down. Jerome Powell can say bonds are going down to 2% instead of at 2%. If Traders knock down the bond market, it's not at 2% anymore; it goes up. When bond futures go down, interest rates go up. That's how the world works. When bond futures go up, interest rates go down. When bond futures go down, interest rates go up. When bond futures go up, interest rates go down. What do we have happening lately? Bond futures going up like gangbusters; interest rates are dropping. Now you know what this whole entire piece is? Nothing but a piece that looks like it's going in the right direction. Look, this whole thing is just one big piece going in the right direction with a pullback. Rates are starting to drop. If rates are starting to drop, a huge—huge piece of the stock market movement, and you've got some—something like crude oil.
Traders, the Trump trade. When Trump got elected, we did technical analysis based on when he got elected, right here. We gave out a target; market was at $78 in crude; we said you'd go to 55 and then 4750. Eventually, crude started to go down—down—down, and it smashed into this spot, came back. Well, here is where we came up on our target, came down and smashed into this spot, back up, smashed back down to it again. But here's the thing about crude: It's becoming knock—knock—knock—knock; it's starting to knock on this door too many times. We know the current administration likes crude; we know tariffs that have just come out should slow down possibly crude. Both of those things should make crude move down over time, making these targets even more valid. When crude goes down and bonds go down—that—well, excuse me, when interest rates go down as bonds go up and the price of crude goes down, it is a huge—huge benefit to the stock market. Now if you don't think crude is going down, this was the bar that took place on Thursday. I was showing you a weekly chart a moment ago; that is one day; that's how far crude has dropped in just a day. So crude has been going down since here. Here was that last chart; was a weekly; now we're at a daily. This is where we had our target where it said the Trump trade; it's done this so far, and here we sit as of this video. So crude dropping like this, the stock market is going to get a boost from that. Interest rates dropping the way they are, the stock market will get a boost from that. We can start to sniff out for a bottom soon enough, and those weekly charts are telling us that possibly that might be sooner than we think.
So I'm here to tell you that the Omni year-end call for E-mini S&P to reach 7512 remains valid. Absolute no reasoning why we would change that call or alter it. There is a stop that comes with every one of my year-end calls; we're nowhere near the stop that would negate that call. Traders have no fear what's happening now; it's only the fourth day of April. This call is for the end of the year. That right now, being that we're in the fourth day of April, we have nine—you know, 10 solid months, maybe 9 and a half, to make this market go higher. And I'll tell you right now, it's moved 850 points in 30 days on the downside; 850 points; that's it, in 30 days; that's the S&P. Now if we think the other way around, if the S&P just has a few 500-point months on the way back up, we'd only need four of them, and we'd be right back at this call. You know what I'm saying? It's not going to take much, Traders. It looks like a lot; we can move that many points in 30 days; we can move 2,000 points easily in the next nine months. Call remains valid. I will see you all at livewithoscar.com.