Transcription
To everyone. I hope you are doing well. We are back for the Friday, October 10th brief, it is 8:44 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. Yesterday, we had a dump on Bitcoin as expected. On the other hand, and here you will tell me what a shame, I got my short position BE'd, which I had opened yesterday morning, or rather the day before yesterday during the night. I opened it at 1 AM and clearly, what we see is that we made this wick. The problem is that because I was already at an RR of, I was already at an RR of 260, I told myself, "Okay, I'll BE it because if we go back there, it will be to target at least $124,000," which is simply the old ATH. The goal was to reach the old ATH if we had a rebound. And I told myself I'll BE it, and if we reach this zone, I will re-enter with a stop loss still above this zone, given that it is our invalidation zone. On the other hand, we were rejected directly. So my reading was wrong this time, and therefore I got BE'd. And what's a shame is that at the maximum, it was an R of 5. So for $10,000 at risk, clearly, you can imagine the missed PNL on that. So it's a real shame, but it's okay, there will be other trades, and clearly, I am rather confident for the future, and you will see that there is a plan that diverges a bit from what I had planned, because I think Bitcoin could potentially rebound very soon, given that currently we have bounced in the H4 OB that we had just here, taking a lot of the liquidity that we had to take. We see that the H4 OB did its job, it held. Here we already had wicks in this FVG. So that means there is no interest in returning there, except to go much lower, to see if we reach $115,300. So the plan is still the same in the long term, but in the medium to short term, I think we can have a rebound and liquidate some liquidations above, because a lot of shorts have opened. So technically in H4, we are currently bearish, but we are in a rebound zone, given that we are in the H4 OB. If we switch to H1, we clearly see that we are about to validate a trend change right here. So we took the liquidity, we validated the rebound in the H4 OB, we are taking the liquidity here. If we validate a trend change here, we will potentially then have a rejection and then we can go much higher to target the liquidities that have been placed above, given that there are a lot of shorts that have been placed. The only thing missing, and you will see it later, is that we don't necessarily have spot buying. So this is what can make the analysis diverge a bit from the technical analysis. So we start with the data, but before that, I would like to talk to you about Mex, where you have a $30 bonus if you deposit. So $40, there are only 40 spots currently. So I think there are 22 spots left if I'm not mistaken. So you just have to deposit $100, and then you trade $100. So that means that you put your $100, you put it on leverage 1, you close it on something that has no fees, and then you directly get back $30 bonus. So it's more of a free move to get $30 which takes about 2 minutes. So it's quite profitable, $30 for 2 minutes of work. So there you go, if you want to do it, it's free. You just have to click on the link in the description of this video and in the pinned comment. So regarding economic news, today we have nothing. However, we will check if there are any results because I haven't looked. We will see that right away. To do that, you simply go to investing.com and you set a filter. So for the three-star results, that simply gives you the biggest companies. So today, we have nothing. We simply have American Express for quarterly news. So clearly, this is not necessarily the most impactful. Next week, we will quickly check if there are any major results. We notably have JP Morgan on Tuesday. So clearly, it's likely to move a lot. Otherwise, we mainly have bank results. We don't have much else coming up. So regarding CryptoBubbles, what we see is that ZC and COAI are clearly outperforming Bitcoin. So ZC is clearly showing us that it didn't dump while Bitcoin was in a total dump. We see that it was on this candle here. And clearly, it's in a completely parabolic zone. It's completely taking off, and what we see is that it's outperforming almost all altcoins. COAI is the same. We had a very small dump when Bitcoin dumped, and it was recovered directly. So it's quite interesting as a crypto. In my opinion, if Bitcoin starts to move, we could have some nice trades on these because they are clearly outperforming all cryptos, and there are some really interesting setups given that all H4 FVGs are filled, and then we automatically move up again. So it doesn't work indefinitely, but it works sometimes, and it's quite interesting for taking nice RRs. Regarding funding open interest, as I was saying, a lot of shorts have opened. We clearly see a huge increase in open interest here. So we are talking about 8,000 bitcoins that were placed in short during this dump, thinking "Okay, that's it, we've topped out, and we can clearly go much lower." We clearly see an increase in open interest with a decrease in funding, which means that exclusively shorts have opened there. Where are their liquidations? They are just above, or their stop losses are just above. So that means that if these positions are closed, it will be market buys, and therefore the price could pump much higher. So we don't necessarily need to liquidate them for the price to pump. We simply need to make them want to close, or they close their trade, either by hitting their stop loss or by closing their trade. So we have funding rates that are still very low. We are currently at this level. Currently, a few longs have opened. We see that some shorts have closed a little. But in any case, we remain with an overall trend of shorts, and therefore it is probable that we will make a new high. So higher than yesterday's high, we see that we have corrected quite a few people in terms of open interest. When we look, we have done a good cleanup, even though there are still many. We see that we had an increase in open interest with an increase in price, which means that logically, mostly longs opened. And therefore, we have many more liquidations in longs than in shorts to take. But in the short term, we can very well rebound, take back the liquidity that we had above, to then have a real dump to reach $115,000. So it would be interesting to see this kind of movement, and I think we can see it next week. So be careful about that. Regarding liquidations, what we see over 3 days is that we have taken the liquidity clusters. Then, we have completely rebounded, and we see that there is really a lot of liquidity to be taken up to $126,000. The first cluster is at $122,624, and we see that there is quite a bit to take there. If we apply a filter, we see that the bulk of the work is really around $122,520. We have nearly $100 million to take, but there you go. Then, if so, it means we can potentially be rejected at $122,600 because there isn't really a lot of liquidity to take, but we are still talking about at least $500 million if we were to reach $126,000. So clearly, be careful about that. If we switch to a monthly view, we see that the liquidations are still present. So at the ATH, we have this zone. However, we have a lot of clusters to take up to $107,000. We are talking about almost $2 billion to liquidate if we were to reach $108,000. So clearly, there is an interest in going there. Regarding what the whales are doing, the whales sold this movement, they are not buying it back currently. The micro-whales are buying it back, but we don't have a huge divergence either. So that means that as long as they don't buy, we don't necessarily have a way to reach that. That's why I'm not necessarily recommending to long. I recommend potentially waiting for a really clean setup with buys from whales, micro-whales, and then we can potentially move up again. But for now, technically we are still bearish, and fundamentally, in terms of spot buys, we are still bearish. So technically, what I think is that Bitcoin, as long as we don't validate at least a trend change in H1, there is nothing to do. Clearly, tell yourself that we must at least validate this major trend change to become bullish again because currently, we are fully bearish, really completely bearish. We had this trendline here, we see that we broke it right here. Then, what do we do? We come back to test it, we go back down. And clearly, if we switch to H4, we don't have much bullishness currently. Currently, we would really need to go above $123,743 to become bullish again. So clearly, we are bearish on this. If I switch to M15, we are bullish. We validated our trend change right here, we see it. So here in M5, we validated a trend change here. In M15, it's coming here. We are on a new trend change here, given that we had revalidated a bearish trend change. So that's why M15 is not necessarily the best for really playing a reversal. So currently, it's better to be patient. We can simply be in a range within this zone. Then, we come back to test the top of the channel. We currently have the bottom of our range. We come back to test the top of the channel, and then we go completely down. So be careful about that. We can also be on a channel, so a channel. Let me set this up. We can also have this kind of thing where we are on a channel here where we come to target the liquidities above and below. We see that here, for example, we had taken this zone, and it was quite obvious to come back and target this zone. We see, for example, that here, so we could be rejected around $123,000 to then go back up, but then this channel will likely be broken, and if it breaks, we will have an impulsive movement. So it's not necessarily what to trade. We will check if there isn't another one right here. If I set it up like this. Does it coincide? No, it doesn't coincide. So clearly, no, we don't have any interesting channels to trade. So there you go, what I recommend is to really wait for an H1 setup because currently we are bearish on the higher timeframes. Even if in daily we remain bullish, we are still bearish in H4, H1, etc., and we are not safe from coming back to target the $118,231 zone to the $114,763 zone. This would not prevent us from remaining bullish in daily to target these liquidities, validate the bearish trend in H4 H1 before going back up and then being able to go much higher. So be careful about that. But in any case, for now, bearish H4, bearish H1, bullish in daily, bullish in M15, but M15, you have to limit yourself a bit and go back to H1 to avoid trading all the movements and getting stop-lossed three or four times before getting the right move. So be careful about that. We can very well be in a range between $119,000 and $124,000, and this can last for a few more days. So be careful. In any case, nothing to do currently. For now, I will remain patient. I will wait for a very clean setup, and based on the data, we will see what needs to be done. I will post it directly on the school. I wish you a very good day. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.