The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong

There is no bigger consensus in fantasy football drafts than the top 12 overall picks, the first round. So, as soon as baseball drafts open in May, the same names make up the first round all summer long for multiple months. But we all know that the season once it's over does not end that way. So, today, Hayden and I are going to do our best to break group think and both list how we rank the top 12 to 15 overall picks in this year's fantasy drafts.

I think the interesting part about round one is there's like the top six players who have established themselves as true separators and then the back half and then even in the second round to me this year it's about finding the ceiling case because if I don't have Jir Gibbs this year if I don't have Puka Nakua I feel very nervous about my chances of winning. I can't afford to take the RB8 finisher uh somewhere in that turn. I'm hoping for the RB3 that year because I think it's going to be pretty difficult to match some of the ceiling cases that we have in the first half of round one. So, that's how I'm breaking ties uh at the back half of round one.

Love all of that. Uh how we're going to do this is just go back and forth one to 15. We're going to talk about this players at the turn because that's when a major factor is uh in terms of how you're going to build your lineups this year. We're going to talk about half PPR rankings, but maybe throw in a bit of strategy if PPR uh in our rankings, how we draft these players is very divergent from that. All right, you're going to start with each one of these and then I'll go back and forth. Who is your number one player in drafts this year?

It's got to be Jir Gibbs. He's holding out for a contract. Hopefully that gets settled shortly. But the upset here is so obvious. Jir Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight games that David Montgomery has missed or played under 25% of the snaps. He's going to set careerh highs in volume. The Detroit offensive line has gotten a little bit better going into this season. They spent some real capital across the the entire offensive line. Uh he was fourth last year in fantasy points over replacement per game. That was while he was splitting time with David Montgomery. Pacheco's in there. I do not think Pacheco and David Montgomery are nearly the same level player. This is all going towards Jir Gibbs. And the other last note I had that defense is going to be pretty bad this year in Detroit. So we're going to see a lot of shootouts, a lot of dome games. This entire division's loaded. So we're going to see a lot of like 28 to 30 games in Detroit. Jir G is going to get a lot of those points.

Yeah. The interesting part about the defense maybe still being bad is that the Lions heading into the season are still favored in 14 games this year. I think that's second across the league. Uh Jir Gibbs is also my number one player. He's actually going second on Yahoo at this very moment if you look at drafts over the last handful of days. I mean the goal of drafting a running back this early on is that he eclipses the 20 or 21 points per game for the entire season. Uh in the 25 career games with Gibbs has played 60% or more of the team snaps, he's averaged 20 points per contest. And as you said, I wrote it down the same way. Isaiah Pacheco is no Dave Montgomery. So, I'm expecting Jir Gibbs to hit that 70%, you know, snap share on a weekly basis. He played 67% last year. Uh, and then a big note for me with how the team kind of crumbled last year. Obviously, they fired their play caller and offensive line injuries hit in a major way. Uh there are some new faces and some same ones in new places along that offensive line where you have Pane Su at left tackle, Blake Miller in round one at right tackle, Tate Ratlage is in in year two at guard, and then you have Kade Maze at center right now. So, not only does he give you like week- toeek scoring, Hayden, he's also one of the true game breakers with his speed both in the rushing and receiving department. They can give you those masses spike weeks and if those pop up in the fantasy playoffs then hey you're headed to the championship.

Other note Drew Petting is a new offensive coordinator. I was looking at some yards before contact numbers in the run department. Number one is like the Mike McDaniel offense over the last couple years. Part of that's because Devon Chin really high up there over the last couple years.

Drew Petting and the Arizona Cardinals which you would not think that's not an offensive line stat in Arizona over the last couple years. It's definitely not a running back stat either. To me that's a schemeoriented stat a credit to Drew Petting. this is the best weaponry he's had uh since being in the play calling mix.

Yeah, I will add and we just did a show with Ryan Paganetti uh on you know play callers and how they're generating in their rushing attacks 10 plus yard runs over and over and over again. Uh Drew Petting ranks fourth on that list whereas you know Ben Johnson was top two. Um Clayton Adams who is now with the Dallas Cowboys was a part of that Drew Petting staff in Arizona and now he's not. So maybe some of those numbers are skewed because Clayton Adams is one of the best uh run let's say organizers and architects across the league. All right, so we have the same 1-1. Hayden, I have a feeling that our number two player is going to be the same here as well.

Yeah, in half PPR, I will go be Robinson. I think in full PPR, this is where the Puka Jamar Chase conversation, I think, really kind of picks into gear just because I feel less certain about the Falcons offense versus the Lions offense. And that's how he broke the tie between Bejon and Jir Gibbs. That said, the market projections for Bejon and Gibbs are almost the exact same thing. We also have Tyler Algier uh without Bejian Robinson. We don't know the exact splits because Algier's been healthy for a lot of that. Brian Robinson comes in. I think he can do a pretty decent Tyler Algier impression, but Bejian was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year. Uh that was when Algier handled 10 inside the 5yard line carries to Bejon's 11. So that was like a 50-50 split. Could we just like not make that 50-50 split uh moving forward? that would be helpful. He's going to catch the ball. There's really not many pass game threats in Atlanta after Kyle Pittz and Drake London. I don't think the defense is going to be nearly as good. So, he's going to catch a bunch of passes and this hopefully could be the year where Kevin fans says, "Let's give like Bean Robinson like all the goal line work." And that's how he closes the gap between these huge Jamar Chase or uh these huge Demir Gibbs uh splits that we have with T Montgomery.

Yeah. In the fantasy playoffs last year, Bejian ran for 175, 168, and 229 total yards. Obviously, Bejian Robinson is my number two player as well for fantasy football this year. He's averaged 20 points per game when he's reached 15 touches. That's not a lot of touches to average, you know, 20 plus fancy points per contest. And yet, he owned 79% of the snaps last year. So, I'm ranking him second. But with that in mind, Hayden, I I still do think there is a pathway for him to obviously finish as the number one overall player in fantasy football this year. And then I sat back and asked myself, okay, how can that happen? What has to change for Bejon to get there? Um, it really comes down to red zone scoring. Okay, he's ranked 13th, sixth, and 23rd in red zone running back scoring over the last three years according to Rich Rebar. And over the his first three years in the league, he's only had Hayden 23 carries from inside of the five yard line. Derrick Henry had 24 last season on his own. Even Devin Singleary had more carries inside the 5yard line than Bejian Robinson did last year. Now, a lot of you can say, "Well, that's because he scores long touchdowns." Yes, that is true. But what could make him the number one overall player is if he scores the long touchdowns. And also when this team gets inside the 5yd line, he also scores those touchdowns. And I think that we might get closer to that this season.

Yeah, I really hope so. Yeah, 10 to 11 last year with Algier. Hopefully that's not the case this season.

I did want to end this conversation by bringing up why we have Jir Gibbs over Bjun Robinson. I'll speak for myself. Um it comes down to just the implied points and where these teams are projected heading into the year. I mentioned that the Lions are favored in 14 games this season and the Falcons are only favored in two and you know you score more points than your opponent in games that you win and the Lions are probably going to score more points than the Falcons this year and I think the trickle down to Jir Gibbs just means he's going to score more points than Bejian Robinson.

And to that point right now the quarterback one uh in Atlanta like today is a complete nobody because two is injured and so is Michael Penn. like you have like those like kind of worst case scenario outcomes that exist with Bejon enough so where I think these next two wide receivers I I do think by the end of this this uh training camp period. I might kind of go back and forth and maybe have Bejon as like low as four, but I can't go any lower than that. Obviously.

I was hoping to start this video off with a bang. Uh I am a bit nervous that our top four are going to be the same. So to you the viewers, do not click away. I guarantee you once we get to our fifth players, things really diverge from there. We go in different places. So uh stick around because this video gets really interesting there. But to bring that up, who's your number three player in fantasy football drafts this year?

Really tough call. I'm going with Jamar Chase right here. Uh in games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three seasons. He's averaging 21 and a half PPR points per game. Wide receiver one on wide receiver one overall expected points. Joe Burrow's healthy. Jamar Chase is healthy. I would say the offensive line since the beginning of the Joe Burrow Jamar Chase years to where it is now is in a much better spot. The defense is probably a little bit better now than it was the last couple seasons. I view that all as a wash. I view the Bengals as a Super Bowl contending team this year. And everything obviously flows through Jamar Chase. So, he feels like one of the highest floor players, period. And then in full PPR, if you wanted to take him over Bejian Robinson, I would not bat an eye for a second.

Jamar Chase is also my third overall player in four of his five seasons. He's ranked top five in points per game. Pretty damn good. Uh he is both one of the most heavily targeted players in the end zone and then also scoring targets from long range. It's kind of what I just talked about with Bjun Robinson. This is what we want from a wide receiver and also not just getting the opportunity to score touchdowns. It's also he's an outside to inside to outside player in this offense. So, he is a game-breaker. We have seen him score 30 40 points. Just anecdotally, he probably has more of those 30 plus point scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in fantasy football over the last few seasons. Uh and that is why I have him as the wide receiver one and third overall this season.

Yeah. last four games 23 points, 20 points, 25 points, 24 points. You know, it's just a clinic.

Pretty good. I I have another bingle I'm going to talk about spoiler in the top 15. So, I have a lot more of

uh how the Bengals offense was unsuccessful early in the season with Jake Browning and got much better with Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow and obviously Jamar Chase felt that too. All right, your number four player is who?

Puka and he can easily easily finish as the most valuable player in fantasy this year. I think this is a a big four that I feel comfortable with. uh 23.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the wide receiver two overall last season. Over the past two seasons, only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood over his entire career. Neu has the most receiving yards per game in NFL history. That's the entire league history at 95 yards per game. There's still no wide receiver three. They're going to do the 13 personnel stuff. He'll be the only wide receiver on the field. His running mate is 33 years old and Devonte Adams. The Rams are still projected for the most points this year. Outside the red zone, Nikua caught eight receptions per game on a 33% target share. That's outside the red zone. Eight per game. That's what we're talking about here. And inside the red zone, at any point if we flip this thing around, we're talking about a season that is unmatched in fantasy. I don't think that's the most likely scenario because Adams is very good at the goal line. But yes, if if that switches, we're talking about an unmatched potential here.

Puka is also my number four player. Uh, I do love how you worded that of outside the red zone because I think not my one frustration with Pukun but like the one Infinity Stone that he hasn't had previously is being dominant inside the red zone. I mean just overall it was scoring touchdowns prior to this past season. I mean his first two years in the league he combined for 10 touchdowns and then obviously this past year he hit 11 which is a big deal. We need that to happen again and I think it will. But as you said, when they get inside the 20 yard line and especially the 10 and the five, Devonte Adams just has the gravity no matter where he goes, what team he's on to dominate those opportunities. When Devonte Adams was on the field last year, according to Reeves, he outtargeted Pukuna 31-10 in the red zone and 28-4 in the end zone. But as you said, like when Devonte missed games, guess who got those opportunities? Pukuna. And what if Dvonte has started to decline a little bit? Maybe they have spent the offseason hoping that Puga can be their go-to player inside the red zone and especially in the end zone. And if that is the case, as you said, we have like from one goal line to the other goal line, a full complete package here with Pukaku to be like the player that you need in fantasy football this year.

There's no reason why they don't target him in in the red area. Like he comes down with crazy sideline catches and is a massive guy. Like the second they switch that, like it would clearly work. So, it's just really just, you know, even factoring that that's not going to happen. It's it's him and Jamar Chase by themselves right now looking at it, right? His projection like in the betting markets 1,400 receiving yards. 1,400 receiving yards. That's like the That's like the baseline case for him. That's crazy.

Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, wide receiver one, wide receiver five, and wide receiver nine in points per game since entering the league. Uh, and that was what as a day three draft pick. That rarely happens, you know, rarely happens. Uh, and I do want to say I feel a lot better about Matthew Stafford heading into this season than I did this time last year, Hayden, when you know the immortal chamber showed up on day one.

It's still there, by the way. It's still there. It's a road show now. Yeah. Now it's just purely for marketing purposes. Uh, also weird thing, uh, Bejon, Jir Gibbs, and Pukanua. It's like contract seasons for all these guys. I know they're going to get paid maybe before the before training camp, but like we got a lot writing to the prime of all these guys careers. Feels very good to have a top four pick this season.

All right, this is one of our biggest shows of the summer. So, if you've made it this far and you haven't hit that subscribe button, do it right now. Uh, it's totally free to you. Our whole goal for the next month plus is to help you win your fantasy football leagues this year. Win your drafts this year. Uh, and hit that thumbs up button while you're there so you know YouTube knows that you watched this episode. Hayden, I am sick of agreeing. I don't want to agree the rest of this episode. So, who is your number five player?

I'm going Christian McCaffrey. um coming off 450 touches. You know how this can go sideways here. It's rare to get that many touches. When running backs get that many touches, they are injured often the next season. That said, he easily finishes the RB1 overall in expected points at 23 per game. RB1 overall in actual fantasy points as well. If he stays healthy, he's right in the mix with Bejian Robinson and Jamir Gibbs. And I'm trying to find upside weeks. even if you get him for 13 14 weeks, like scrape scrape by the last couple weeks here. Uh he just gives you such a clear advantage when he's out there. Uh Kyle Shanahan wants to scale his uh his workload back a little bit. They always say that. I think they're going to do it at times this year, but we're dropping receivers like flies with Ricky Pieraw. George KD coming off of an injury and running backs with with broken ribs and whatnot. It's like

we're going to come to the season again. He's going to be the only guy that's healthy. Um, so I get it. He can get injured and this could look stupid and at the same time like last year you can draft him and you can win your fantasy league.

Chris McAffrey is my number six overall player. Uh, hey I mean it was my home run swing on this episode last year where I called out CMC as my fourth overall player and he finished as the running back one with 22 points per game. Uh, I'm not doing that this year, but it's not because I don't want to or don't believe in him. I I think I just kind of believe in the other players that we talked about here at the front. I mean, no player owns more of their team touches than CMC did last year. 47%. Like 47% of the time he touched the football. Now, as you said, it's kind of twofold, right? Would CMC season have been even better if everyone was healthier, right? Better team, more points scored, better blocking. I think there is a case for that. Or did he actually benefit from everyone being hurt? you know, he was force-fed the ball despite lacking juice because the underlying metrics were really poor. I mean, he was 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards, 32nd on runs that got stuffed at the line of scrimmage that failed to gain yards, 36th in yards after contact per rush. And as you said, like the last three backs that hit 450 touches from Aryen Foster to Marco Murray to the season prior, Saquon Barkley, uh, their production and their fantasy appeal dropped significantly the next year. So, I love CMC. I don't want him to hit this cliff, but you know, those guys were 26 and 27 years old that I just shouted out. And uh CMC is entering his age 30 season right now.

Yeah, he's a lot riskier this year than he was the previous season, which is ironic because he was coming off injury. And you you really just want to be avoiding him when he comes off that amount of touches. I just can't ignore the upside. We're trying to come in first and second last time uh I checked in fantasy football. Like you just got to deal with the risk.

Absolutely love that. Okay, my fifth player. I'm on Ross St. Brown. I actually changed this right before this video started. I had another wide receiver in the spot, but just going through this research, I thought to myself, I I just trust ARSB and this situation more than I do others. I mean, 100 plus catches in each of the last four seasons and just the environment that he's in is fantastic. I mean, we're talking about also the team that shares, you know, the number one overall player in fantasy football this year. 12 of 16 games in the fantasy season will be played indoors. I already mentioned how many games are gonna be favored in. And I keep talking about, you know, red zone and endzone targets because guess what? That's where the majority of touchdowns are scored. There are a lot of differences between Aman Ross and Brown and someone like Zay Flowers, for example, but one of them is that red zone work. I mean, Amaran Ross Brown led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last season. Comparably, Zay Flowers had 10. Aman Ross St. Brown has 66 red zone targets over the last two seasons. Z Flowers has 17. So this is someone who from your own end zone to the other end zone is going to be heavily featured and heavily target. And he even scored as the wide receiver for last year when the play caller was fired mid-season. And I expect a lot more stability from the offensive line and a coaching standpoint in 2026 here for the line.

As safe as it gets in his prime, the offense is completely loaded. three straight seasons with double- digit touchdowns and 115 plus receptions. That's incredible stuff. There's also splits without David Montgomery as well. So, his 10ame sample where Demart either missed the game or finished with five carries that left the game early. In those games, a Monro St. Brown averaged 21 PPR points on 22 expected points. Both of those would be the wide receiver one overall if you extrapolated to that. Uh he's averaged eight receptions, 102 receiving yards in those games. Like he hasn't even run hot in touchdowns in those ones. Yeah, this one's like a a total layup. I I have him eighth overall. Um I think I can make the case with him, JSN, Jonathan Taylor. They're kind of all in that range uh where I feel very good about them. A Monro's floor is just like so incredible and obviously better in full PPR.

Okay, who's your sixth ranked pair?

I got JSN sixth. Uh coming off an incredible season. Um that was 99.6 six receiving yards per game, including the postseason. 35% target share. Like the next closest was a Monro at 32%. That's a pretty large gap there. Uh only 8% of his targets were screen. So he wasn't doing this like as a merchant. Like he gets some of the gimme stuff, but really last year was about working the ball down the football field. That's a credit to Sam Darnold. The offensive line uh took a little bit of a step here. The one thing working against JSN is he's done it once where a lot of those guys we just talked about have done it many times. Uh and then you also have uh the loss of Clint Kubak who we fully trust. Now the new guy that they're bringing in comes from the Shanahan tree uh and Brock Huard who covers the Seahawks. He had an interesting quote about this just saying that there's no like a connection between McDonald and uh the new offensive coordinator. He just crushed the white board.

Brian Flurry.

Brian Flurry. Yes. Just crushed the whiteboard and was like this guy's the smartest guy in the room. Like we have to hire him. So it wasn't like some like Nepo hire. here's my bud from high school. It's like no, like no real connection, just crushed it. I kind of like that going into this. There's really like I like Rasheed Shahi and AJ Barner for what they are, but those guys aren't like target volume. So, this is going to be another huge season from JSN. I'm not really surprising anybody. I think that's a trend with Mike McDonald where he doesn't just hire friends or acquaintances like he hired, you know, the Washington offensive coordinator without ever, you know, overlapping with him and then fired him and then when Clint Kubak, I don't think he had any background with Clint either. So, he really does try to hire the best person for the job and it has worked out. Uh, JSN is going sixth on Yahoo right now. So, you're right in line with ADP. I have him as the eighth player and this is the one I was battling here with Aman Rah St. Brown. I mean, the craziest stat, I think he might have just said it. I mean, he produced 3.73 receiving yards per pass attempt for the Seahawks this year. So, it's not even per target. It was just, hey, when Seattle just threw the ball to anyone, he averaged 3.73 yards. Uh, wide receiver two in points per game last year. Hayden, do you think that this is the player though that regression is likeliest to hit more than anyone else? Like again, no Clint Kubak, we get Brian Flurry. I just overall if you play the law of averages, doubt they win the Super Bowl again this year. Maybe the Seahawks play action success drops this year versus the historic rate that it was at last year. Uh he led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off of play action last year. At the same time, even if aggression does hit, he still dominates any share that you look at of this passing attack compared to any other wide receiver of their pass attack. So, you know, Seattle might be a little bit worse in a few areas, and if they do, then they have to throw the ball more. And if they throw the ball more, guess what? JSN can fill it in with just more opportunities.

To answer your question, there is regression coming JSN's way. It's hard at like repeat 35% target share. Like that can be, you know, down to where Monro is at 32%. Uh yards per target, 10 and a half, completion percentage over expected at plus 10%. Those are just like really unsustainable numbers. Now, you can regress those to 9.8 eight and like six uh percentage points over expected, which is like where the rest of the elite wide receivers are, and still be the third, the second, the first fantasy wide receiver. I just think the difference between, you know, like the the Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow offenses versus what one year Sam Darl, I just feel a little bit more comfy with those other two guys, but I'm not going to say anything negative about JS.

Your seventh overall player is who?

I got Jonathan Taylor here. uh RB3 and RB3 overall usage over the past three seasons when Shane Stiken has arrived pretty good. Uh he's had some low-end RB1 moments and then like true elite RB1 moments. I'm kind of playing in the middle ground with Daniel Jones coming off of injury here. Uh without Daniel Jones, he still had RB3 usage, just did not have the efficiency. But for for the first 13 weeks, he was the RB1 overall on RB2 usage in half PPR. Um, when Daniel Jones was like truly healthy, like remove those like fat five games where Daniel Jones was like limping around off like the broken leg that he was dealing with, it was like not even close. So, I I I want to like factor in this like monster ceiling that Jonathan Taylor has. He's the entire focal point of the offense. Alec Pierce has been dealing with injuries. We'll see what happens with Josh Downs. There's no Michael Pitman here. Like, we're running out of bodies to get the ball to. And I really have a lot of faith in Shane Stiken. The offensive line's in pretty good shape. is always in pretty good shape and like Jonathan Taylor is he's officially him. Uh forget the receptions, don't even care about that. If you're going to, you know, average almost 100 rushing yards per game, who cares?

Just to outline what you just said, I mean, the Colts won eight games last year. In those wins, Jonathan Taylor averaged over 30 half PPR points.

That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous.

And then their season hit a wall and blew up because the Daniel Jones injury. And we know how the season ended because of that. I mean, it is crazy. In eight wins, which was basically eight of the first 10 games of the season, he averaged over 30 half PPR points. So, when we talk about true league winners, yes, that's it. Like, that is what we're looking for.

And I hate that we have to split hairs between all these players cuz I feel like I'm really high on JT this year. I'm actually optimistic about the Colts rebounding. And that even goes to like me actually wanting to draft Daniel Jones in superflex leagues of where he's being selected right now because people thinks he he sucks. But I have Jonathan Taylor as my 10th overall player. And

I know I know WHY. BUT BECAUSE ALL THESE GUYS ARE REALLY freaking good and I have another player at number seven. I'm going to TALK ABOUT POINTS.

I KNOW. I know. And he he owned 84% of the Colts backfield touches last season and the only addition to the backfield was a seventh round rookie who's like 26 years old. It doesn't even matter. Yeah.

Right. So, yeah, Jonathan Taylor led the league with six yards per carry, posting a 47 48% success rate the opening 10 games before Daniel Jones again

went to the bench and all that stuff. And I don't know, maybe I should change it again.

You You better have some really good notes for whoever you have at number seven. These notes better like completely they better sway me because you just had 30 points per game for a half season. Like these next notes better be good.

Here's the difference. When the Colts are in negative game script, Jonathan Taylor is not as involved as other top backs are across the league. Okay. I think it all shocked us what happened in the first 10 games of last season when the Colts were the best offense in the league. And I depending on where you look right now, I think the Colts are only favored for six games heading into the season right now. And if that's the case, if they only win six games this year, I I think there's a chance that Jonathan Taylor's season might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment just because uh he is not

his production is obviously not 30 points per game and losses, but it I think he might have like the biggest difference between wins and losses in terms of the gap in his fantasy score.

Yeah, I'm just looking at it like the last, you know, month or so of the season, he was still heavily utilized. as I'm seeing RB7 over the last four games for him in expected points. Just the efficiency wasn't there. I I do think even if Daniel Jones is not anywhere near where he was riding super hot in the first two months, it's better than what they had the very end like the Philip Rivers and the uh Riley Leonard type of games out there. So, I feel good about this. If like Daniel Jones is like healthy enough to be out there week one and like healthy enough to like keep the offense middle of the pack but not himself, like they have to rely on Jonathan Taylor even more. So, um yeah, I feel good about it. Here's my onion hanger then at seventh overall. It's Saquon Barkley. Now on every single platform that you draft off of, he's going in round two just like he is on Yahoo. But you said I better have a good player for seventh overall. How about the guy that just a couple seasons ago was the best player in fasy football and the one that you needed. And for some reason that has been forgotten about despite all of us 365 days ago selecting him as the first running back off the board. Now, what happens and what is happening right now as we enter 2026 is the entire focus of the Eagles and you know the coverage of it is just around their passing attack. Like what is Shawn Manion going to do with Jaylen Herz? How he's going to pluck different throws out of him? Today we read that so much more under center work. How is Devonte Smith going to fill in the shoes of AJ Brown as his team's top wide receiver? How is Mai Lemon and Eli Sters going to fit in the passing attack? I am telling you none of that matters as much as getting Saquon Barkley back on track like he was in 2024. Because if the running game gets back to being the most explosive and like the highest success rate unit in the league, then that makes the passing game that much easier. Like it changes the math. It forces a safety or defensive back to climb into the box and that's when you get single high and that's when you take these easier passing shots down the field. So what happened with Saquon Barkley last year, Hayden, to me actually was not an individual talent drop. It was an environmental drop. I mean, he was 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt last year when he ranked second in 2024. Despite that, he still ranked seventh in explosive runs last year with 58. He was second in that mark in 2024 with 77. So, I think despite Jeff Stoutland being gone, a Hall of Fame offensive line coach, I still think just from a healthier standpoint, cohesiveness and quality offensive line is going to make Saquon Barkley get back to his best work like we saw just two seasons ago.

I like this call. I've got him at 10th overall, so I'm ahead on every single ADP right there with you. I think that Sean Manion is going to make a huge impact there just because the last offensive coordinator just like could not string it together. They were 19th in scoring. Right now, the betting markets have the Eagles 12th. I can see them finishing seventh in scoring if Shawn Manion uh bounces back. The offensive line is all returning. Uh they just didn't play well last year. They're all banged up. Right now, Lane Johnson after training camp today said, "What I like about this is everything looks complex to the defense. To the offense, it's actually pretty simplified." Goes on to say, "The O line is it's the most friendly and maybe the past couple years he's been involved in. uh more under center stuff, just more different types of runs, more outside zone stuff. Uh I thought their offense was very predictable, like Lane Johnson was kind of laying out last year. All that stuff is going to help him out. And then plus, there's some positive regression stuff with Saquon Barkley. Last year, he had 11 carries inside the five yard line. He scored one rushing touchdown on them. Like that's, you know, that's not a Saquon Barkley stuff. That was just like Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson. They weren't healthy. And then, you know, uh Lane Johnson missed nine games. We also just talked to to Ryan in a previous episode. Maybe the tush push kind of dials back a little bit and they might have to do some other things because like some other things be like under center run to uh to Saquon Barkley this year like maybe like the the Jaylen Herz Saquon rushing touchdowns kind of even out a little bit this year more so than in other years. So I think lots of reasons to be back on the optimistic side for Saquon.

I feel about Saquon like it did about CMC this time last year. I like that

in that we just saw this guy win healthy rank as the number one running back and like the guy you needed in multiple seasons and because of a down season albeit CMC's was due to health and everyone drafting him that high it left like a bad taste in their mouth so they don't want to do it again the next year

we're just getting crazy value to the point Hayden I don't know how on every single platform all of you are confidently drafting Ash and Gentyhead of Saquon Barkley that makes zero sense to to me. I mean, we're talking about an offense in the Eagles that's projected to score 24 points per game versus the Raiders at 19. Uh, you're expecting Ashen Genty behind a worse offensive line to score better than Saquon Barkley, who has a better offensive line and has already done it previously. I know the age gap is there. We're talking about a year two Ashen Genty, but that one just doesn't make any sense to me. I mean, again, two years ago in a good environment, Saquon Barkley had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. than last year just two touchdown runs of longer than 13. So I've said this in a bunch of places I want to say it in our show but I guess Saquon Barkley is like my biggest flag plant this year and that

I like it

should not be like a huge statement but according to drafts where he's going anywhere from like the first pick of the second round to like the fifth pick of the second round. It seems like it is.

This is what I'm talking about where at the one two turn I want like real upside 20 plus points per game type of upside. Saquin has like literally done it before. So I I do like taking the swing there. Alo AJ Brown not being involved like could we see you know 10 more targets through across the season to Saquon Barkley to kind of break some ties like I think all those type of things are possible.

I do want to say I'm also drafting Tank Bsby as like the best handcuff in Facebook football this season too. So if you're not drafting Saquon Barkley if you're playing best or really deep rosters in your league. Draft Tank Bsby because if you don't believe in Saquon then you should probably believe in Tank Bsby this year.

Okay. I think we've both covered our eighth overall players where you have Aman Rossin Brown and I have Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you have no more thoughts on those names, let's jump to number nine.

I've got Justin Jefferson. I'm ahead of Yahoo ADP at 11. Best ball slot ahead as well. I think Kyler Murray is going to be a big deal. Uh, I think if you throw out the 2025 season from the Vikings, which was horrific, uh, we're talking about Justin Jefferson averaging the most PPR points per game from 2022 to 2024. It's a three-year sample at over 20 points per game. Uh, if we remove the Josh Dobs and Jiren Hall games, there's been a lot of, you know, really bad quarterback games from Justin Jefferson. If Kyler Murray is a lot closer to Kurt Cousins, Sam Darnold tier, which if you just would have pulled us like a year ago, we would have said like absolutely he's in that tier. Uh, I think he's going to go back to where he was where at one point he had the most receiving yards per game in NFL history around 100. Now that's belongs to Puk and Aua. They were 26 in in points per game last year. I can see them being right around the top 10 if Kyler Murray like really comes along and I don't even think that he has to come along that much. Uh Justin Jefferson is going to go crazy. This is a very pass heavy offense. Always has been. That will not change with Kyler Murray. Uh, and Kyler, don't forget he had DeAndre Hopkins had 88 yards per game in 2020 with Kyler. Another 80 yards per game for DeAndre Hopkins. And then Trey McBride did have 72 yards per game as a damn tight end with Kyler Murray. Um, so like this narrative that Kyler Murray can't get it done with his top option. I think there's a difference between like prime Justin Jefferson versus like the hope of Marvin Harrison over the last couple seasons.

Justin Jefferson's also my ninth ranked players who are back on track here together. We really are getting a discount and you outlined it well on one of the best wide receivers in the league because this offense finished 26 in scoring last year and you know the year before that with Sam Darnold they finished ninth in scoring in 2022. They finished eighth in scoring as you noted Nick Mullins, Josh Dobs, a lot of other guys have played in this offense. Uh it never looked worse than when JJ McCarthy was

until until Brosmer showed up. Then

untilmer showed up. Yes, that that's fair. But despite all of that and like the 26 and scoring, Justin Jefferson still was wide receiver four in team targets, was still wide receiver five in air yards. He still had 16 endzone targets, but only scored two touchdowns off of those. So everything was still going in his direction. The design of the system was still to get Justin Jefferson the football. The quarterbacks just simply couldn't do it. So, while I am not like a Kyler Murray apologist, I I think that his play has not been great over the past couple of seasons, especially at the start of last year. All I'm asking is for Kyler Murray to follow the design of the play, like trust what Kevin Okano is building, and you know, stand tall versus pressure, fire over the middle of the field. And if he does that, then Justin Jefferson's going to get right back on track and uh make us look good because we both have him above the 11th overall pick right now on Yahoo. And for stacking purposes, I do like the Kyler Murray price tag as well. So, I think I think there was kind of a big tier break after the top eightish so players. Um, like I think the difference between the Aman Rossi and Brown safety versus the Justin Jefferson like is a to me is like a mini tier right there. The Saquon Jonathan Taylor stuff, you know, like that's kind of like a totally different discussion. I think that Justin Jefferson is going to get back to the Aman Ros tier in terms of fantasy production. But you have to admit like Aman Ro's safety versus the Justin Jefferson safety. Like there is a little bit of a difference right now.

Totally. However, we are talking about the guy that finished wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold and was the wide receiver five and points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins.

Yeah.

I don't know. I think all these guys are pretty freaking good at football.

They're sweet.

Okay. Have you already talked about your 10th overall player? That's where I had Saquon and you had JT. Yep.

Yes. All right. That brings us to number 11. Who do you have ranked 11th?

I think this is where it gets really difficult. Um, I'm going with CD Lamb. He is the ninth overall player in in baseball and Yahoo ADP right now. I think there's going to be a difference between like the prime CD Lamb years versus the one where he's now uh splitting time with George Pickins. I don't want to overstate that difference though either though because uh with George Pickkins balling out, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share. He was a wide receiver eight on wide receiver six usage. He only scored uh a quarter touchdowns per game. Usually that's like 37. Uh so he was not running Todd on touchdowns this last season. I think that's kind of explains the difference between like where he was previously. Obviously 26% target share still strong at points it was over 30%. I think those little differences are the reason why we talk about CD Lamb here versus you know next to JSN but this is still the second uh fastest neutral paced offense. They're still top six and projected points this season. CD Lamb's projected for,200 yards this year. Uh the offensive line looks in good shape. Uh head coach OC all back. Um so I feel really good about all this.

Yeah I also have CD Lamb as my 11th overall player. However, I was writing all my notes and I couldn't tell how confident I was in it as I got through it all. Not not because I don't think CD Lamb is is amazing. It did concern me though that he actually ran a career low of routes from the slot last year at what, like 35% of his snaps, which is pretty crazy to me. Now, obviously ankle injury in in week three uh stands out and then maybe the quote unquote emergence of Ryan Florenoi who is mostly a slot player maybe kept CD Lamb to the outside a bit more often compared to like the Jaylen Tolberts

And whoever else of the world, because I, I think like that's where his really specialness comes from, is this outside to inside, outside stuff. And, you know, in our minds, we were all telling people to draft George Pickens last year. I'm sure many of you did that. It worked out incredibly well, where George Pickens finishes the wide receiver six in points per game compared to CD Lamb's wide receiver 11 in points per game.

At the end of the day, though, I just came back to like, variance just wasn't on his side. I think I read that he ranked 200th across fantasy football in points over expected. So, uh, he was on like a very negative end of all of that and only converted two of his 12 targets in the end zone for touchdowns last year. Yeah, my expected points, he was the wide receiver, uh, nine at 16.1, only scored 15.5, which usually elite players are like clearly outscoring their expected points. He was actually below expectation there, which like you said, when Dak Prescott's dialed in at CD Lamb's. I mean, he had a couple like pretty key drops where he's like, "Oh, what the hell is going on there?" That stuff's going to kind of even out.

But I think, I think your point is true. If I read my Drake London notes and look at the market projections for him versus CD Lamb, there's like no difference. Their ADP is is widely, >> but the quarterback difference is massive. >> That's that's the difference, uh, alone. Um, but I, I do think that we're talking about a kind of a different tier here. And I think some of these running backs, if you really believe in the upside, I do think you can rank them ahead of the Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb tier. >> Interesting. I, I would almost put it as there's a top 10, then 11th, I would put CD Lamb, and then I have a fascinating cluster of running backs here from 12 to >> many, many picks. >> This is where the episode starts right here. >> Yes. >> Yeah. Thanks for joining us. What, uh, 40 minutes in to the episode. All right. With that said, who is your 12th overall player?

>> I got Kenneth Walker here. I'm taking a stand. Uh, I feel really good about this after writing down all my notes. By the way, on Yahoo, his ADP is at 21. So, this is way, way different. I think if you can get him in the middle or the end of the second round, you're in really good shape. Want to go back to Andy Reid, do a little deep dive here. Back in the day, he had Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, Shawn McCoy. If you guys were playing fantasy football then and you had those running backs on your team, you were winning your fantasy league. And there at one point, before we got to Kareem Hunt and Clyde Edwards and those guys, >> Andy Reid was thought of as like the running back fantasy creator. And he actually, like Kenneth Walker reminds me of LeShawn McCoy in the final three seasons with Shady and Andy Reid. His 17-game pace was 1,800 uh scrimmage yards. There's no RB2 on this team. Like EMTT Johnson is this big. Was not a fan of as a prospect. Amari Di Marcado is kind of a pass-catching change of pace guy. Like, we're talking about very low-end backups. And with Patrick Mahomes, I don't think he's moving all that great in camp. It's good to see him out there. I think he's going to play week one most likely. I don't think he's going to be himself. Bring back Benmy, who's better than Matt Nagy. And then for Kenneth Walker himself, I think it's the best offensive line he's ever played behind. Those Seahawks offensive lines throughout his rookie contract weren't very good. I think Kenneth Walker is going to set a career high in targets by a lot. I think his rushing numbers are going to look fantastic on a in terms of efficiency. And I don't think that this offense could afford to not give him the ball 20 plus times per game. If that happens, he has a chance to finish in that top four mix.

>> This is the old adage that there's always someone higher than you on a player that you think you're well above ADP on. And that's the case here. I mean, I have Ken Walker as a 13th overall player and like you said, he's going as a ninth pick in the second round on Yahoo. Uh, he's >> a little bit ahead of that in baseball right now. I, I, I just see a phenomenal talent that once he was given the platform to showcase that in the most important games and like some of the most difficult defenses that he faced, guess what? He ran through them. He ran around them and he ran over them. Uh, I know he was drafted last year as the running back 10. Some of that was because of us. Uh, and finished as the running back 28. >> We were right by the way. Look at the Super Bowl. >> We were right in the end because if he was given the work, look what happens. And we always say, Hayden, that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. When you look at the Chiefs offense this year, the only substantial move that they made both in the draft and in free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free agency was bringing in Ken Walker the third. Like, yeah, >> I understand if you look through their rushing attack last year and the underlying metrics, they had a high success rate. Now, a lot of that was because of Patrick Mahomes's scrambling and, you know, if they needed two yards, Kareem Hunt could get them three. They were hitting kind of singles in the running game. But what they told you by paying K9 is that that doesn't matter very much. That that only gets you so far and that you have to generate explosives, especially if you can't create them in the passing game. And guess what? Now they can do that because Ken Walker is a game breaker. He's a game changer. Uh, and I cannot wait until he is behind, you know, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and the rest of this offensive line because I'm with you, like the history shows itself that Andy Reid whispers to running backs and they have >> Oh, yeah. I mean, Kareem Hunt's rookie season was phenomenal. If we get that from K9, then uh, let's boogie. >> Yeah. Last three games, the postseason games, he had 35, 21, and 18 fantasy points as the bell cow here. Like that's like the pathway that we're we're going for. I also believe that he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Like I, I think that we're going to like look at him as like one of the top tier, like not a top tier, like tier two, tier three running back, like in the discussion as like a top five, top 10 running back across the league. >> Yeah. I mean, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game over his last 26 games that he's reached 60% snaps. I expect him to reach 60% snaps in every single game this season. Uh, yeah, I mean, I think this offense ranked like 20th in explosive carries last year. Disgusting. >> It's going to go to the moon. >> He also two years ago caught over four passes per game. It was across 11. Like the sample size of him like being able to catch passes, I think it's been proven like he has an upside there.

>> I, I'm right there with you. Now, unfortunately, my 12th overall player is James Cook, who I'm actually slightly behind Yahoo's ADP on. They have him 10th overall, and I have him 12th overall. Um, to me, his fantasy appeal completely changed over the last two years since he took on the red zone rushing role among the running backs here for the Bills. I mean, in 2023, he had one rushing score inside the 10 yard line. Move on to 2024, he had the eighth most carries inside the 10 and 11 touchdowns. Last year, again, the eighth most carries inside the 10 yard line and six touchdowns. And then if you look at un other underlying metrics for James Cook, they're all fantastic because guess what? This is a really freaking cool offense to run the football in. I mean, second in yards per rush, ninth in success rate, eighth in rate of runs of 10 plus yards, and then in terms of stuff rate, he had the second best mark in the league. So, yes, they did lose their left guard and yes, they added DJ Moore in the passing game, but I still think that James Cook, despite me, you know, bringing up Ray Davis as a really nice backup running back every single year and some other guys they have on the roster, too, uh, James Cook, I think, has established himself as like an explosive player and a very successful player in this offense.

>> I got James Cook, uh, ranked 14th. He's somebody I've not been drafting a whole lot of. I don't have too many negative notes here. Just breaking ties in favor of backs I think have a higher ceiling just because he's just not caught that many passes and I think there's like a reason for that such as you have Josh Allen. I need to check the ball down and I think adding TJ Moore, who I think they should be getting in the manufacturer touch department, maybe Dalton Kincaid could stay healthier this year than where he was this last season. Like those are the type of guys obviously Khil Shakir, you like dink and dunk to and James Cook is like, yeah, yeah. And Ty Johnson plays like real snaps in like two-minute drill and those type of things where I think James Cook, something would have to drastically change with his role to finish as like the RB1. That's fine. He was the RB6 last year. He led the NFL most carries per game, 19 and a half. Rushing yards per game at 98 and a half. All of it was actually sustainable, too. Like 5.1 yards per carry is totally reasonable. When you play against or next to a dual threat, you're good. The offensive line's good.

>> The other thing is like you lose your offensive line coach, your coordinator is now a head coach for the first time. Like you lost a veteran guard. Like these little things. I don't think they're going to make that big of a difference here. But um, in terms of like dreaming of like some total total crazy ceiling, I think I just see it more with like the Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achane range rather than James Cook. But I think the floor is like completely established here. Him in the second round makes a lot of sense.

>> Your point on him likely not having a running back one overall season in his range of outcomes is a fair one. Again, I would rank Bijan, Gibbs, CMC, Saquon, and Jonathan Taylor with, you know, a higher likelihood of that. I mean, K9 maybe than James Cook, probably. But then I, I just look at this environment and think maybe this is hitting a triple, but maybe I'm okay hitting and then and then someone else can, you know, get me to home base at the end.

>> Yes, I, I think that's totally fair. I was just looking at his ADP was 10th overall and I, I feel like usually there's a little bit higher of a ceiling, but his floor is >> outstanding when you're in this this offense. He's a very good player in the prime of his career. Four out of five offensive linemen are returning. Same play caller as it was this last season. He's good. Uh, you know, I don't have too many negative notes here.

>> And if you play full PPR, Reeves noted this that James Cook has been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his 33 games over the past two seasons. Only Bijan and Gibbs have more. >> Yep. So, he keeps you in it every single week is one way of putting it.

>> All right, Ken Walker is my 13th overall player. Who's your 13th overall player?

>> I've got Devon Achane at 13th overall here. I understand the downside risk. You lose Mike McDaniel, who is excellent. Uh, Malik Willis instead of Tua. I understand the concerns. I'm also looking at it where I know I have a superstar talent. I think the Dolphins offensive line is actually pretty dang good. I mean, Patrick Paul emerged as a really strong left tackle, a really freak athlete, young player, getting better. Aaron Brewer, uh, Brandon Thorne, uh, said he was the best offensive lineman in the NFL. You can watch a highlight tape of Aaron Brewer getting to the second level and absolutely just shredding dudes. And then Kaden Proctor is their left guard. So, like their entire left side to me looks really good. Ken Proctor's 360 pounds, moves well. Uh, and I don't like Sloic that much, but he at least was there with Devon Achane last year and Mike McDaniel. They're going to pick up on, you know, get get Devonte Achane the ball on the outside and like figure things out. And then you look at the receiving work. How could he not finish with 80 plus targets this year? I mean, look at the receivers. Like I, I think even with Malik Willis, isn't he like near the bottom of the list in terms of targeting running backs? I know this is like a tiny sample we're talking with here, but typically scrambling quarterbacks do not throw to their running backs. I think it's inexcusable to not scheme up four targets to Devonte Achane per game, no no matter what. And like to me it should even be higher than that. Like you, they're going to throw the ball. Every offense still throws the ball 25 plus times per game. Like you can only get so many targets to everybody else. I think it's way too easy to get Devon Achane the ball. And last note, I'll, I'll say losing Mike McDaniel does hurt. But having a dual having a dual threat quarterback next to you also opens up another about one uh plus yards per carry more. We see this across every single running back in scheme out there. We have not seen Devon Achane with a threat next to you like stopping the zone read with Malik, uh, uh, Willis and Devon Achane is going to be a problem. So I think there's just no way that the Dolphins could not build their entire offense around him. Even if they're bad, I think he still gets it done.

>> This hurts me so much. You know, last summer I was just relentlessly drafting. Devon Achane was one of my highest drafted players if I was close to the turn. I think he's a superstar in the league. One of the more unsung superstars because he's not just an in-space runner. He actually can take break tackles between the tackles, too. He's he's very successful there. Hayden, Devon Achane is my 18th overall player. I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I, I am, I'm a bit terrified by this environment and it goes from like the play caller to the offensive line and to losing Mike McDaniel. Again, we just had Ryan on the show yesterday and Mike McDaniel in terms of 10 plus yard design runs over 70 games coached ranks third. Guess where Bobby Slowik ranks? You know, 19th.

>> How much is that a Devon Achane stat though? I think that's the hard part to detangle here.

>> There's also Moser, but I mean Mike McDaniel also was the architect of Kyle Shanahan's rushing game. Like he has been doing this for a very, very, very long time. And I know Bobby Slowik during his time with the Houston Texans. And I've actually been a bit of an apologist for Bobby Slowik because that rookie season for with C.J. Stroud. Uh, he's just never had it that great of a rushing attack other than, you know, Joe Mixon's, let's say, not 12th overall player rushing stuff. And then if you look at, you know, avoiding negative runs, uh, Bobby Slowik's 25th on that list. So,

>> I love Devon Achane. I actually like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback dart because the rushing gives you the floor and then the passing is the upside. Greg Dulcich is like a tight end sleeper here. I just don't know among all this cluster of running backs. I mean, I, I think I have the most environmental questions about Devon Achane and maybe that's clouding my judgment here too much.

>> I think this, we got to remember where we're starting off with. He averaged 20 fantasy points per game last year, you know, in full.

>> It's a totally different group. Chop off four fantasy points, five fantasy points per game, he still finishes in this range. Like I think the starting point is so high. I don't remember the Dolphins lighting it up last year and he was still the RB5 on RB5 usage because the receiving work, the rushing, the run system, like all of it was so exceptional. So exceptional. I just don't think it's going to be. And look, like you said, I think we do forget that Bobby Slowik coached under Mike McDaniel last year, so maybe he did pick up on a lot of stuff, but their offenses, the last time that Slowik had a system that he designed, looked totally different than what they ran last year.

>> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. For sure. Bobby Slowik's got to step up here. Absolutely. Fully believe in you. And still, the Dolphins are going to pick up touchdowns and yards this year and receptions. Like, we have to throw them to somebody. Like, I think Devon Achane would probably be a good start. We do plan on doing a round two and three version of this as well. So I'll have a lot more to say about Devon Achane during that time unless I move him to, you know, the 15th overall player or the 12th overall player by by that point. Okay. I already mentioned that my 13th overall player is Ken Walker the third. So we're back to you, Hayden. Who is your 14th?

>> I, that's where I had James Cook. So back to you.

>> Okay. Well, this is where I have Amariyon Hampton. So maybe this is a similar conversation to one that we we just had. Yeah. I mean, I don't want to just continue to wax poetic around Mike McDaniel, but guess what? Like that's a major factor in why I have Amariyon Hampton ranked this high. I mean, running backs attached to Mike McDaniel over the last three years. Devon Achane ranked as the running back five in points per game last season, running back 11 in points per game the year before that. And yeah, I mean, in 2023, he had both the running back three and running back four in points per game. And just the environment that McDaniel brings to the system. I mean, in Miami, his offense is ranked fifth in yards per rush, fifth in success rate, and first in explosive plays. And so, you look at Amariyon Hampton, who has outstanding speed for his size. That's what pops off immediately for me. Like, I, I don't think he necessarily has a great feel for the position in terms of setting up defenders or lanes. He has like a a different way of attacking final contact where he like spins and twists and turns all around it. But I'm kind of at the point where I want to set aside my individual evaluation of Amariyon Hampton and just believe in what is being created here because the Chargers also have the fifth best offensive line according to Brandon Thorne. Uh, and if you give Amariyon Hampton space on 52 runs when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage last season, he averaged 7.4 yards per carry, which was seventh in the league. And he's going to get that way more than 52 times this season. I got Amariyon Hampton 22nd overall. This is I would label this as like the scariest fade of the season for me because like he's got home run ability. He's a goal line back. And this offense could go absolutely crazy here. I just think the the possible reasons why he finishes closer as like a low-end RB1 is this turns into maybe a little bit more of a committee than some of the other backs in there. I didn't love Hampton's pass protection. I, this is like not the biggest like concern, but I do think Kamani Vidal is good at that. And this might be more of a three running back rotation than a lot of like the either no rotation or the one-two punch rotations of the other guys around him. But if he's so good, then like screw Kamani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell, and that's how he can finish as a top five fantasy running back. Um, maybe I just like don't love those odds versus where he's going. Um, I was also looking at the Mike McDaniel stuff. Uh, this last season, defenses were treating the rushing scheme a lot different and way fewer two-high shell looks for for their rush attempts. Only 16% of the Dolphins run last year.

>> Throw it down the field.

>> Exactly. So, I think that's going to be the the interesting part of this offense is how are defenses going to be scared of the two-high shell because that's where Mike McDaniel was absolutely ripping these runs across and you just like get into the perimeter and Devon Achane is just picking up 10 yards per carry or do they rotate him in the box and then make Justin Herbert go over the top and that would be pretty exciting too. I think it's going to be really good offense to kind of figure that out. But I do think that defenses have found some adjustments to like the peak seasons of like 2023 and crowding the box is is kind of one of them. Uh, I think you are right if he plays more of the passing down situations and if Keaton Mitchell is not averaging eight carries per game and that's back to five, four, five carries per game. And then I might be right if Vidal is mixing in and Keaton Mitchell's getting eight carries per game and then he's an electric player but kind of inconsistent versus the other guys around. But I think a very difficult one and if you wanted to rank him as high as like 10th overall, like I do see that the the upside here. At the same time, I think there's a chance for like everyone gets home in this offense. I mean, you know, the 2023 Miami Dolphins with Tua at quarterback scored the second most points at 29 per contest. And again, that was when they had two top four scoring running backs in points per game. We know what Tyreek Hill and Jaylen W, whoever else you want to throw in there, >> did that season, too. So, like, there's a chance that everything is so good that it's not, hey, you have to take from this guy to give to this guy. That they all just get there with efficiency and stuff. And I think that is in the range of outcomes here. And I'll throw in that Demarion Hampton caught five or more passes in four of his games played last year. So I think there's a chance where >> they have some heavier looks where they keep in Charlie Kolar or they keep in Alec Ingold to help with this protection and then they run like two main routes down the field with Omarion Hampton like slipping out and like that's how he can get four, five, six catches per game too.

>> That's a great point too. Omarion Hampton, just his receiving work is hard to get a good feel for because as a receiver I think he's very good and then in pass protection I thought he had no clue where he was going uh last year. So it's like another one of these things where it's like I know he's going to catch a bunch of passes. It has to be kind of schemed up for him, but Mike is a pretty good guy to be in charge of that. So

>> All right, put a pin in that for our round two three conversation here in the next couple weeks. All right, we'll close it out here with our 15th overall player. Who's yours?

>> I got Ashton Jeanty here. There's a couple other players I have in consideration like mainly Derrick Henry. I keep going back and forth, so maybe if you have some notes to kind of split this tie for me. Let's start with Jeanty because he's uh 11th in baseball ADP. He's 12th in Yahoo ADP. And then I, I know a lot of sharp people even have him higher than that. Starting point last year, RB11 usage, like did not come off the field. Finishes the RB16 in half PPR. Obviously, the offensive line, Chip Kelly, everything was a stone cold disaster. That's going to get better. That's enough for him to finish as a top 10 fantasy running back this year. If he doesn't, that is a really, really bad, bad sign. My individual uh opinion on Ashton Jeanty is that I also thought he was making bad decisions and not did not have the play speed versus all the guys he's being drafted against. And I fear that he's going to be closer to Josh Jacobs, who I really like his rushing style, but it's a different tier player. And the offensive line's getting better. Linderbaum, Colton Miller coming back at left tackle. But the other guard spots I think are still pretty bad. Uh, DJ Glaze, the right tackle, that's still pretty bad out there. Uh, and the entire offense like still could be be pretty bad even if we think that they're going to get a little bit better. Uh,

>> supposed to be the pro case here as your 15th overall player.

>> Well, he's not coming off the field. So, there's that. And I could be wrong. That's the other thing. It's like he could be awesome. Like he, he's supposed to be awesome. I just wasn't getting the senses that he's gonna like go crazy in terms of like now he's just like ripping off explosives left and right and it's like Saquon Barkley. I just don't think I saw Saquon Barkley on tape last year even taking in the obviously bad environment.

>> Yeah. What I loved about Ashton Jeanty coming out of Boise State was his run stamina. How he could break like three, four tackles in the same run and that would allow him to get you know 40, 50 yard touchdown runs and then it wouldn't just be one time in a game. It would be multiple times in a game. And that style is just more difficult in the NFL and it's especially difficult when probably at best you have an average offensive line and last year obviously maybe the league worst offensive line. It's interesting. I'm, I'm looking at our colleagues here at Yahoo and you and I rank Ashton Jeanty by far the lowest. You're at 15th overall. I'm at 17th overall. Uh, I don't want to out people, but like Joel Smith has him at ninth overall. Harmon and Boone have him 11th overall. That's just too rich for me. And again, I just don't see how anyone can take, you know, him over Saquon Barkley, even if, you know, Ashton Jeanty plays 88% of the snaps this year. I, I just think like from an environmental standpoint, and like big play potential, uh, Saquon's just a better pick here.

>> I agree. There was a really cool research by Sam Hoppen, if you guys want to go read this column, where he was looking at yards before contact, which everyone's like, that's an offensive line stat, and to some degree it is an offensive line stat. He was trying to come up with like ways to like factor in what should the expected yards before contact. And when he was looking at that, it's like, okay, are you running towards the perimeter? You get more yards before contact. That makes sense. How many defenders in the box is there? That makes sense to account for. He started accounting for all these variables, including the offensive line, including the dual threat ability of the quarterback. And then he looked at what are the running backs doing, accounting for all the environment. And Ashton Jeanty was the worst running back in football in terms of avoiding yards before contact, running into defenders, staying behind the line of scrimmage for too long where where players are coming and rallying before him. It was like the only running back to finish like below uh a certain point. And that's concerning because that's kind of what I was seeing on tape and like if you like the really, really sickos and that know all this modeling and stuff, that's what they're coming up with too. Uh, it makes me a little bit nervous that he's going to be a fine player, but not, you know, the next Bijan, Saquon, those type of guys.

>> Can we just take a moment for strategy corner real quick? Because if you're, I don't know, pick 10, 11, 12. Again, there's this cluster of running backs. You can go from James Cook, Jeanty, Saquon, Achane, Chase Brown, Hampton, Derrick Henry. Choose two of your favorites. Going with two of those and comparing that to let's say the running backs in round five and six which are you know Dave Montgomery, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinn John Judkins, Bucky Irving to you know round six that's Chuba Hubbard, Jaren Price versus you know the wide receivers that are in rounds five and six Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Mike Evans. I mean the list goes on and on. Like I, I would much rather take the package that it's those two early running backs and the two later wide receivers versus the two early wide receivers or even just one early wide receiver and then having to take one of those running backs in that range too.

>> I see the same thing. I'll even say the round three four turn has every one of the wide receivers that we are trying to break ties in favor of Jaylen Wright, Malik Nabers in that tier. Ladd McConkey, Marvin Mims Jr. You can pick a veteran and a young guy like Zay Flowers.

>> There's literally 12 of them. Uh, you can go wide receiver, wide receiver in that range as well. So

>> Yeah, I, I think Derrick Henry is like the one name I regret not like involving in here just because, you know, he just, you know, uh finished as the uh RB8 with Lamar Jackson not even playing that season. Uh, and he's projected for 12 and a half touchdowns in in the betting markets. That's the most rushing touchdowns uh in the NFL in the projections. And you know, he's not a top 15 guy in half PPR. That that might come back to bite us again.

>> Yeah, maybe I'll regret it too because he's not my 15th overall player. But hey, that that's a great lead into again when we do the round two three show and uh, you guys should subscribe to watch that one when it comes out and hits your feed. My 15th overall player is Chase Brown.

>> Okay.

>> Uh, and this is kind of again drafting the environment over the individual talent. Like as an individual player, I don't think Chase Brown belongs in that group of all the running backs that we just listed. Uh, so again, maybe that comes back to bite me, but what you are getting here is just a team that scores a whole bunch of points and literally zero competition. And it's not just competition between the 20s. It's also once you get inside the red zone where Chase Brown played 74% of the snaps last year, which is the running back five on the season. Um, obviously it was a bad start to last year. We all kind of regretted taking Chase Brown and that was, you know, aided by Joe Burrow going down. But once Joe Flacco was named the starter instead of Jake Browning, they averaged he averaged 105 yards from scrimmage over the last 11 weeks was the eighth most among all backs. Um, and then when Joe Burrow returned, you know, peak form of this team, Apex Mountain, Chase Brown went nuclear. I mean, he was seven, excuse me, second in running back points per game, uh, and hit, you know, 20 points per contest and half PPR scoring, which is exactly what you want. So, the environment is simply sensational. They've returned all five starting offensive linemen. If they stay healthy, then at worst, I think this is like a league average offensive line. And uh, again, that's just a situation that I want pieces of. And uh, Chase Brown in round two uh is really appealing to me.

>> Over the past two seasons, there's 21 games with Joe Burrow. He's the RB12 and RB5 usage. So, like that goes to your point where he's like not like the greatest player ever, but he's he's a starting level player in this league. Just in 2025 though, there was six games with Burrow. He was the RB5 on RB4 overall usage. Um, so

>> Team's getting better. The offensive line's way better now than it was before. Like that's where like Chase Brown could like become one of these guys that's like a no doubt about it, top 10 fantasy running back. And then we're like looking at our Jeanty teams, we're like, damn. Like I'm watching Raiders games versus Bengals games and I got >> I got the Raiders running back.

>> Here's a crazy stat for you from Reeves. The Bengals are currently favored in 15 games this year heading into the season.

>> They can win the Super Bowl. Like obviously that's how good this team is.

>> 15 games they're favored in. And you know, running back points are pretty freaking good in in games that you win. Oh, and guess what? If they have to throw the ball and they're trailing, uh, only Devon Achane, Bijan Robinson, and Gibbs have more receptions than Chase Brown over the past two seasons.

>> And I got the inverse of that. Uh, three or, uh, three or fewer yards to go. Uh, he was the RB2 and rush yards over expected. He was RB8 and rushing success rate across all of the Burrow games. Three yards, four yards, doesn't matter. Um, so the efficiency rebounded as a rusher. And I think that's a credit to like the Amarius Mims picks in the first round just kind of figuring out some of the guard spots that they have out there where all of a sudden the offensive line you can like credibly say it's like a league average offensive line, not you know 30th in the NFL.

>> Yeah. But you know, keep drafting players on bad teams ahead of him.

>> I think I need to move up. I need to move up Chase Brown. If you read my Chase Brown and my Ashton Jeanty thing, you'd be like it's not even close. So yeah.

>> Oh, I love it. I absolutely love it. What can go wrong? Uh, let's save the best for last. You ready? Stats vs. Film returns tomorrow. So, you get a Stats vs. Film episode for your weekend. So, if you made it over an hour into this episode, let us know in the comments down below who we did not mention in our top 15s that you have in your top 15s. And let's say the biggest home run swing and shout. Uh, I'll give a big massive comment to down below. So, let us know who you rank in your top 15. That's going to do it for us. Shout out to Reeves and Mosho behind the scenes. I know all of you want our rankings. We'll have an announcement for that very, very soon for all of you to grab them and use them in your drafts this year. All right, everyone. Up the bill. We'll talk to you guys soon. See you.