Transcription
When he accepted the 14 proposals, it was a disgrace to the United States as the number one world superpower. Therefore, I think he might have returned because he had no choice. In the first round, the risk of oil prices skyrocketing, [music] 150-200, was less than in the second round. The second main factor that I think could tip the scales is China. Because last time, China was the country that reduced its oil consumption, reducing it by 4% of global demand. This is not ordinary. 4 million is larger than the entire UAE production. In the latest past, the world's largest energy importer could tolerate high oil prices more than the world's largest oil producer. The stock market fell, but they could tolerate it. Trump could tolerate it. >> This is the global feed system. [music] into the market. And this is the fuel cost management system without hidden fees. [music] with benefits and Max Points. >> BB Thaw, hello, Uncle Moo. >> Hello. >> Mr. Suwat Sinsad, he is a committee member and academic. Today, Uncle Moo just returned from a trip for over 10 days. You can call him anytime. [laughter] I misspoke, I misspoke. You are invited on short notice. >> Uh, you traveled far, Uncle Moo. 10 days and then returned to Thailand. We invited you today because we want to ask about the global situation. Currently, the oil situation is quite volatile and turbulent. I want to ask Uncle Moo, do you think the second or third round of the Iran war will make oil prices return to the old cycle? Will it go up to 120, 130, and then come down again? >> It will cycle back, but it's different from the first round. In March, April, May, we estimate it like this. March, April, May is the first round. March, April, May, June. Because June is a resting month, right, Uncle? Around mid-July, the second round starts. We estimate it like this. In the first round, the risk of oil prices skyrocketing, 150-200, was less than in the second round, which we are entering phase 2. Let's call it phase 2. It's much higher, much riskier. This is not something I want to focus on just oil. Isn't focusing only on oil too narrow? It's not like that. Because oil is actually the root of what? Of the analysis of what they will do next. Or if this is a chessboard game, what is Iran thinking on the game? Because Iran's real cards in hand to pressure the United States are actually oil prices, not weapons, not the army, not anything else, right? So today, I think this round, the war will likely be shorter than the last time, but maybe not 3 weeks. I think it might be a week or a month, or not more than a month and a half. Let's estimate it like this. Last time it was about 3 months plus. >> Yes. >> Right. >> So this round might be about half of the last round. And why? Because there are 3-4 variables that have changed. The first variable is the helper for oil prices, inflation, or US interest rates. We're talking honestly, it's all connected, right? It's less. It's about the energy market that you asked about. The helper is the oil in the world's strategic reserves. There are about 8 billion barrels. Last time, about 700 million barrels were released. If we divide by 100 days, it's about 3 months plus, let's say 100 days. So, it means that in the latest round, about 6-7 million barrels per day were released, right? If we divide by 100 days, let's say it's a round number. This is the main figure that prevented oil prices from going much higher last time. But there is a second main factor that I think is interesting and could tip the scales left or right, which is China. Because last time, China was the country that reduced its oil consumption and its oil imports significantly. From about 12 million barrels per day, China used a total of 16 million barrels per day. It reduced its total imports of 12 million barrels per day, but reduced imports to just over 7 million barrels per day. This means a reduction of 4 million. You might feel that 4 million is not a lot. 4 million is larger than the entire oil production of Iran. Currently. It's larger than the entire UAE production. Therefore, China alone reduced demand by 4% of global demand. This is not ordinary. If China hadn't reduced its production, or rather, its imports, and if the world hadn't released oil last time, I think the 150-200 that many people talked about would have been seen. But we didn't see it. And this time, that helper, China, probably can't help as much as last time because they themselves have released some oil. And China has already reduced imports for 2 months. I don't think China can reduce oil imports by 4-5 million barrels per day for many consecutive months. This means that next month, in August, or perhaps in September, if the war is not over, China may have to increase its imports again. This is like increasing global demand. This is what I think is the first factor that will cause oil prices to surge quickly and potentially go beyond $120 if the war doesn't end this round. Therefore, I think this war will definitely not be 3 months plus like last time. It must be shorter. Second, the United States itself. Currently, it is a country that is self-sufficient in energy and exports a little. If we conclude that they have no problem finding and using oil, they will have a problem with inflation from oil. But China is the opposite. China will have a problem finding oil, but not much of a problem with inflation because China produces a lot of goods that can reduce inflation, which are cheap. Therefore, it is accused of being a dump, or in nicer terms, what do you call it, dumping at low prices. But to put it nicely, China actually has the ability to produce cheaply. So, I think this round, we will see at least $120. >> Yes. >> At least, Uncle. >> Can the world accept $120 if it lasts long? >> If you ask if the world can accept it, yes, but not in a normal way. >> Uh. >> Not in a normal, peaceful way. >> Uh. >> Like Thailand. >> 50 baht. >> Yes, if it's $120, there will be a situation where the economy will have problems. >> Uh. >> To a certain extent. >> But not severe. >> Uh. >> But if it's 150 or more, there will be problems. >> Uh. >> So why $120? Because if it's $120, it's high enough to cause what? First, it will force the United States to be squeezed in terms of inflation, because inflation will lead to interest rates that must rise. >> Uh. >> It will lead to a bad bond market, a bad real estate market. >> Stock market. >> Uh. >> Economy. >> Uh. >> This is just talking about the US. >> Uh. >> Everything. >> Uh. >> And don't even talk about the midterm elections. >> Uh. >> That will be another hit. >> Uh. >> These are 5-6 issues. >> 120. >> Uh. >> It's enough to cause problems for those who import energy, or the whole world, that doesn't produce it themselves. >> Have problems. >> Uh. For example, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Europe. They will all have problems with the cost of living, the economy, and so on. Things that were going well. Actually, things were going well. >> Japan, Korea, right, Uncle? >> But if this comes up, it becomes a brake. >> Uh. >> A brake on good things. Like the Thai economy, like the Thai stock market. If this goes up to 120 or more, >> It will become a brake. >> Uh. >> But if it's 150, it's not a brake, it might be a >> A collision. >> Yes, something that will jolt or make the global economy or the Thai economy worse. So we have to see how much President Trump can tolerate. Can Trump tolerate it? But Xi can probably tolerate it more. [cough] In the past, the world's largest energy importer could tolerate high oil prices more than the world's largest oil producer. What do you think? >> Does it seem contradictory? >> The producer should make more profit. >> But it's not like that. >> Not like that. >> But it has to be hot. >> Because the analysis of the energy world, the economic world, the geopolitical world right now is a bit confusing. If we talk in the old way, the one who produces a lot should have an advantage. It turns out that the one who produces a lot is the one who >> Gets hit. >> Gets hit themselves. And it clearly shows us that they have to retreat. >> Uh. >> Retreat temporarily, let's see. >> Retreat temporarily. That time, it made the economy better. >> Everyone was happy. >> But it's happening again. Because Donald Trump is facing a tough battle internally. He's being heavily criticized. Uncle Moo, what do you think happened internally that made it so messy? >> Actually, if we look at his cabinet, >> All of them are hawks. >> Uh. >> Very many. >> Uh. >> Right? So, I think President Trump is under a lot of pressure from many things, including the cabinet, the deep state, right? And also Israel. >> Uh. >> Oh, many things. So I think he might have returned because he had no choice. >> No choice. >> No choice. Because when he accepted the 14 proposals, every single one of them was a disgrace to the United States as the number one world superpower. And this time, I still can't figure out >> How he will win against Iran. >> Uh. >> Even if, Uncle, I believe he can persuade the Kurds in the north, west, northwest of Iran to actually attack Iran, or rather, to disturb Iran, let's use that word. >> This hasn't happened yet. But if it does, will Iran collapse? >> Oh, no. >> It won't be that bad. It will make Iran a bit wobbly. They will have to send forces to take care of the north, right? And I think the Kurds in Iran are thinking hard about this. Because the Kurds are divided into 3 or 4 countries. >> The Kurds are not in just one country now, right? This is the Western style. >> They like to spread out maps according to their understanding and their >> Interests, and then draw lines arbitrarily. >> Therefore, countries in Africa, countries in the Middle East are the result of arbitrary division of interests by Westerners. >> Uh-huh. >> I'll use this word. >> The Middle East is the clearest example. >> Yes, yes. >> It's France and Britain drawing lines and dividing it arbitrarily, and then betraying. >> Uh-huh. >> Betraying the Arab nations. >> Uh. >> Inciting them to rebel against the Ottoman Empire. Before, in the Middle East, it was the Ottoman Empire, right, Uncle? >> Inciting them to rebel. >> And then saying, "Hey, after you rebel, I'll make you Arab nations, meaning countries." >> There are only about 2-3 countries in the Middle East now, Uncle. >> Not tens and tens of countries like this. The reason there are 10 countries is because France and Britain drew lines and divided them arbitrarily. >> Uh, true. >> This is what I have to say. And that's why we have the feeling, why is the Middle East never peaceful as a whole region? And then later, they added Israel. >> Oh, that made it even worse. >> Uh. >> So, in conclusion, I think right now, who has the advantage? I still think Iran has the advantage. >> Yes. >> I still think if I were Iran now, I would think, "Hey, how can we make oil go up to 120 quickly and keep it there?" >> They are trying to do that. >> Yes, keep it there as quickly as possible, and keep it there. Don't let it go to 150-200, because then everyone will be ruined. >> Because if it goes to 150-200, it will attract trouble. >> They will be shot heavily. >> Then it won't just attract trouble, it will attract everyone. Everyone who is suffering will point fingers at Iran. >> Yes, Europe, Europe will come. But if it's 110, it's still borderline. >> Uh. >> And then wait for a month or two, no more than that. >> Yes. >> The effects will seep into the economy, into the inflation figures, into the US. Simply put. >> If next month the announcement comes out that inflation is over 4% again. >> Uh. >> Back to square one. >> Then it will be troublesome. The US will be in trouble. >> Uh. >> Kevin War will say it's in my favor. I want to raise it. >> Raise. >> Interest rates. But I still can't find a reason that makes sense. >> Uh. Raising interest rates will have consequences. Inflation. >> Inflation rises, interest rates must rise. >> Together. If inflation rises and interest rates don't rise, the consequence of >> What is the damage? That inflation will seep into the entire economy and weaken the US economy. >> Uh. >> This is the problem. And suppose, I'm just supposing. If inflation rises to over 4% for 3 months. >> Let's say 4.3, 4.5 for 3 months. That's enough for oil prices. Because I'll give you this figure. Everyone, do this. CPI or US inflation is 3.7. >> Uh. >> That's oil around 100. No, not around 90. I'm wrong. >> 4.3. Oil is around $100, WTI. >> If oil is around 100 now, Uncle? >> 96. >> Ah, so if it stays like this today for the whole month, then next month, we can predict. >> Yes. >> That US inflation will come out at 4% again. >> 4. >> Another 4. And the rule is, if inflation exceeds >> Uh. >> Interest rates. >> Uh. >> Interest rates. >> Uh. Which is currently around 3.77. >> Yes. >> If it exceeds, and the longer it exceeds, the more dangerous it is for the economy, for the overall employment situation, which is the core of the US, right? >> Uh. >> But if they are equal now. >> Uh. >> They are equal now. >> Uh. >> See? Last month, when it exceeded 4.3. >> Yes. >> It exceeded 3.77. >> Yes. >> Oh, the Fed had to retreat. >> Yes. >> Retreat. >> Had to sign. >> Retreat. >> And oil fell, really fell fast. The US survived. >> Uh. >> Let's call it surviving that crisis. But if it happens again, will it survive? I don't know. Will Mr. Trump not retreat? Suppose he says, "Let it rise." >> Ah. >> Can he do that? >> If he has no reason, he wants to win. >> Suppose it has to be seen whether Kevin War will raise interest rates to the maximum. >> And if interest rates rise. >> Uh. >> And will it affect the stock market, bond market, and so on? >> This is it. This is what we mean by "Can Trump tolerate it?" But Xi can tolerate it. The stock market falling, Xi can tolerate it, control it. But can Trump tolerate it? This is a game of "Can Xi tolerate it? Can Trump tolerate it? Can Iran tolerate it?" Is that right, Uncle? This is the game, right? >> This game. >> It's not a game like a competition of who can hold their breath longer. >> Ah, diving. >> It's not like that. But in between, you don't just sit there. You have to poke left, hit right, move forward. You know, Uncle? Like we... this is the kind of game. Like we play a game of "Hey, let's sit and stare at each other, who will blink first?" >> Uh. >> It's like that. >> But Xi isn't doing anything aggressive. He's just sitting and waiting. I think he's letting Iran play alone. That is, closing the two straits, and then letting oil become scarce, and prices rise to 120. >> Actually, what Xi is doing correctly is, do you know what it is? First, when the enemy makes a mistake. >> Uh. >> We shouldn't interfere. >> Yes, just sit and watch. [laughter] >> Second, we must reduce our own risks. >> Uh. >> How to reduce? As they are reducing oil imports. >> Uh. >> The electricity sector hardly relies on oil. Hardly relies on gas. We've talked about this before. So, even if oil prices rise to 150, believe me, if you go to China, water will still flow, lights will still be on. Because their electricity doesn't use much oil. >> Very little gas too. But if oil is used for refineries, for petrochemicals, that's another matter. >> Plastics, plastics? >> It's a different matter. Yes, this must be separated. >> Uh. Oil is actually used for many things, not just for generating electricity or for cars. It's used for many things, so they might have problems too. >> Petrochemicals, right? Our lives, everyone's lives, wake up and go to the bathroom, it's all petrochemicals. >> Yes. Toothbrushes, toothpaste, oh, everything. The packaging. >> Yes, it's true. Tables, everything. >> So they have problems, it's not that they don't have problems. But they don't talk about it. They say little, but in reality, their problems are immense. When oil prices rise to 120, they have to buy expensively, right? Money flows out. But the one who benefits is the oil seller, right, Uncle Moo? Uncle Moo thinks the oil seller is happy. Let it rise. >> This year, it's the year I clearly see that it's a situation of high prices. >> Uh. >> And scarcity. >> Uh. >> Right now, it's like that. Oil is similar. >> Yes. >> Gas is also similar, right? Currently, there are other commodities too, Uncle. Like rubber. >> Uh. >> Like corn. >> Prices are high. >> Uh. >> But >> No stock. >> Fighting for it. >> Uh. >> Not enough supply. >> Yes. So, now it's become that if you say the producers enjoy it, how can they enjoy it? They don't have stock, or very little. >> Even if it's expensive, they don't have it to sell. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Except for the oil market, where those who can produce fully and are not involved with the straits. >> They are just getting rich. Oil companies are just getting rich. >> Yes. >> 120. >> They are rich now. Because now, if we don't count the impact in their production areas, their refineries in the Middle East. >> Yes. >> They are truly rich. Saudi Arabia has been rich for a while. Because they sell less, but they sell at a higher price. But recently, since the Houthis closed the port since yesterday, they said 10 ships turned back. 2 more brave ships crossed and were attacked. So, everyone is afraid. Everyone is afraid to go. >> Now it has changed to a birth canal. [laughter] It has become narrower. It has to be renamed. It's no longer a strait. The passage is narrower. >> It's even narrower. It's a birth canal. You have to push. You have to push. >> Oh. >> Push, and you don't know if you'll make it. You have to wait and see, right? Uh. You have to get your head out first, or your legs? [laughter] >> It's not closed. Let everyone understand. It's not closed. >> Yes. >> But it's hard to get out. >> It's hard to get out. Yes. [laughter] And it's risky, right? Uh. This is it. This is >> The power. >> Uh. >> The power of those who control the strait. >> Yes. So now we have to wait and see the situation for another week. See if Saudi Arabia will be in trouble. If they are in trouble, what will they do? Will they attack the Houthis? >> They can attack, but the Houthis won't surrender. >> Ah, really? >> Because they have been fighting the Houthis for 4 years. You know, they haven't won. >> No. And in the end, it's like Saudi Arabia will lose. Saudi Arabia has to be careful. >> Because Saudi Arabia, as I said, is an Arab playboy. How can they fight the Houthis? They are Arab rebels. >> Rebels. >> Right? Like Arab thugs. >> Yes, like they have no money and they have to fight. Actually, look at the armed groups. >> Rebels. >> The Houthis, Hezbollah. They are all the same. >> They are poor, but they are >> They are Arab rebels, not royalty. Rebels are like guys behind the palace. [laughter] >> Thugs. >> Yes. But if you talk about OPEC, oh, they are all like that. They don't know how to ride camels, don't know how to ride horses. They only know how to ride. So how can they fight? I ask you. >> Yes, they fight by dropping bombs from planes. >> That's why they allow the US to use their bases, their facilities in their country to bomb, right? Because they can't do it themselves. >> Uh. They can't do it. They don't have warriors. >> Oh, if they could, they would have done it long ago. >> That's right. 4-5 years ago, they were attacked by the Houthis, their oil refinery was hit, and they were still blinded. So, in conclusion, they have no way to fight. They let them occupy it. So Saudi Arabia loses more oil, 5 million barrels, over 4 million. >> Yes. >> And then the Strait of Hormuz loses another 7-8 million. >> Well, this, this is not the real number. No one knows, Uncle. Because it goes up and down, changes. But we know that before, through the Strait of Hormuz, it was over 10 million, early 10s. >> Uh. >> But now, we don't know how much has been lost. >> Uh. >> We don't know how much has gone out. >> Oh, let's guess 4-5 million. And then another 4-5 million on both sides. That's 10 million. 10% is lost. How can the world survive? >> Well, we will have to face oil prices over 100. >> Yes. >> And over 100, is it enough? It's not enough, right? >> Is 120 enough to use? >> Is it available? >> It's available, but supply is less than demand. >> Uh. >> So it will be >> High. >> So someone won't get it. >> Because the US can't be an energy hero anymore. >> Why? >> Because their oil production is stagnant. It's not growing. It's at its limit. So, in conclusion, America is still comfortable. They have oil to use. But >> But America is afraid. Afraid of high prices and inflation. >> Yes. And America can tolerate it for another 2-3 months, maybe. >> Well, 2 months and then the election is over. >> The election will be over, and they will be ruined. >> Ah, they will be ruined. [laughter] And think about it, if the election comes and the Senate becomes all Democrats. >> Yes, then they will let it go. >> And what will the Democrats do? >> Yes, they will impeach. >> Yes, impeachment, this and that. All the laws that were struck down, all 10 of them. >> None will pass. >> Then they will bring everything back. >> Uh. >> It's like this. Like if, suppose today in Thailand, Pheu Thai is, suppose, and then there's a new election. Suppose we don't have midterm elections, it's like this. >> Thailand doesn't have it. But if it did, and we assume, ah, it changed. Ah, let's say Pheu Thai is, suppose, red, or orange, or whatever. >> What do you think will happen? >> The government cannot stand. >> Cannot stand. US politics doesn't have much weight in evaluation. >> Let's put it this way. >> But I think it does. >> Uh. >> It's just that it will be a later factor. The first factors are inflation, and everything that's piled up here. >> And then gradually comes the political issue. >> Uh. >> We've been talking about this since last time, since they attacked, and will close the strait, and open the strait, and so on. Now we're talking about it again, that the election is making everyone not give in, but everyone is still brave. This means they must have something good. >> There are two things, Uncle. They might have something that stabs them in the back. >> Like a threat or something. "Hey, you have to do this, you have to go back and fight." Or, the second thing is, they must have a trump card. >> I think there must be a trump card. >> Uh. >> Maybe, maybe they will collapse. >> A trump card or a falling horse? [laughter] There are two things, Uncle. >> If they don't fall, if they don't have a trump card, they will fall off the horse. There are two things. >> Okay, I hope they fall off the horse quickly so we can have some peace. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to Su Tao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.