Transcription
Hello everyone. Well, a quick little video to take stock of the current situation. I think it will be simpler on video. I'll try to keep it short. We are currently at 89,460 at the moment I'm recording this video. So we are back at our bottom levels. We are working again on the zone that we worked on Tuesday the 18th, specifically in the early morning between 5 am and 8 am at the time. Well, we are working again on this zone just after regaining that support level we had around $93,700. So, we had the two pushes we talked about. Here, we came to recover the liquidity that was located there. We had a lot of liquidity just here and so we came to recover it. Unfortunately, we turned back within that zone. So it was a possible scenario. We came back to work again on this level, the level of the W that had relaunched us, and we are currently at support levels. So we'll look a bit at what's going on from an order flow analysis perspective. Well, the positive side is that we have a slightly different behavior than what we've had in the past. So, if I look again at the curve we had and which reassured us a bit, then probably wrongly reassured because now we are attacking the supports again. That's precisely why I'm still not reinvesting the remaining 30%. Some people asked me if it wasn't the right time to reinvest and so on. We've dropped a lot, we're in capitulation phases. Is it time to go? I think it's still a bit early, but we still have the continuation of the movement we talked about. That is to say, here, you see that we had fundings decreasing with an increase in spot CVD. So with a period in which we saw a bearish behavior from people on futures contracts. Okay. We had people who thought, "This is a good time to short." Well, now they are happy. That is to say, they made profits on futures. Okay. And this is precisely visible through, well, wait, I'll move this. So you see here at the level of, so I was saying, so here at the futures level, we had quite a few short positions that entered, and then we had an inversion of sentiment, that is to say, here on the movement that was a bit bearish. So you see when we started working again on the support level of $92,000, $92,000, well when we started working on it again, we had a resurgence of euphoria. It was slight, you'll tell me, sure, but you see that it was reflected right here. So this and this, they say more or less the same thing. But we see here that we had a resurgence of euphoria levels. And that's something that is a bad sign when we re-attack supports and have a resurgence of euphoria. Well, we came down, we recovered a support level. You see that here the positive aspect is that in all of this, we still have a bullish spot CVD, meaning there is real demand in the spot markets. So the cumulative volume delta, I remind you, is the difference between buy orders and market sell orders. Okay? So here, we'll really look at those who are clicking to actually buy Bitcoin at market price. Okay? Those who are a bit less informed, okay? Those who, because most people who have been here for a while and so on, they tend to place limit orders, okay? They define their buy order with a given price level and so they won't click on buy at market. So here, it's generally smaller investors, and so we still have the return of some demand. Here, currently, we are at levels where quite a few people are starting to position themselves to buy in the spot markets, but we still have a sentiment that is becoming bearish in the slightly longer term. So, we see here between November 17th, so since Monday, we've been in a slightly more bearish underlying trend. You see that we are decreasing. So here we have quite a few people who are exiting positions. We see it with the open interest also decreasing. So, open interest decreasing means fewer people are betting, and the people who are still betting are mostly bearish. Well, that's quite logical. When you find a curve here with such a bearish trend for so long, okay? Well, it's quite logical that the only people remaining are bearish people because, of course, all buyers are being liquidated one after another. Regarding liquidations, precisely, you see that if we look at the last 12 hours, well, we have a classic phenomenon, the price drops and here we have falling knife buyers. Okay? So you know the old adage in the stock market, you don't catch a falling knife. It's to illustrate the fact that when a financial asset drops in a straight line, you don't try to buy it back. You wait until it has fallen. You wait until there is price lateralization and so on. And at that point, you buy back because you never know how far this famous knife will fall. So here, we had people who bought back during the drop, they bought only the liquidation, they bought and bought and bought, and each time they get liquidated. And here you see that we have always had buying at the level of $88,830. So, it's very likely, when we are in such a bearish trend for a while, that we will come back to recover this zone again. And it's really when we will have an inversion, okay, as we could have had at that moment where, well, we had almost no one buying the bottom anymore. The only people left are sellers, and then the price reverses. Okay? You see that here we recovered the liquidity, we turned around. The positive aspect behind all of this is that we are always leaving a lot of liquidity above us. So what's positive is that sooner or later, we will come to recover it. So I know this can be very frustrating for many of you because, well, some of you are afraid. So you are positioned on the altcoins we talked about. Some of you even have positions that date back several years, several months, and on which they are not necessarily confident, and to see the price drop this much, even if Bitcoin dominance remains bearish and therefore altcoins are not suffering more than Bitcoin on average, it's still quite painful. Okay. Regarding our watchlist. Well, TRX, Hype, BNB is performing quite well, you see that we are still relatively close to our entry levels. If we zoom out a bit, well, you see that we entered in these zones, it's still largely honorable. Solana, it's true that it's performing a bit difficultly. You see however that we haven't dropped as much as on the previous support on Monday. So, that's a good sign. There are still signs of awakening. I remind you that we'll talk about this a bit more tomorrow on the altcoin part, but I remind you that the altcoins that perform best during drops and during rebounds are those that will perform best during bullish phases. Okay? Here we have Tao which is performing quite well. I also saw Render. Render is performing very well. So we hadn't identified it in our buyback zones. But finally, you see that here we are holding our support at 5. We are also holding a support. So here, there is real demand. So this is precisely it. My work during these drops. I am sometimes not excessively active, but in fact, during these phases, for me, they are information goldmines. So, I spend hours and hours on Glass Node, on Cryptoqu, and so on, to look precisely at buyer behavior during capitulation phases, to precisely detect during rebound phases the most positive behaviors and the cryptos that will perform best. Pendle, we have the beginning of a reaction, it's still fragile. Morpo, well frankly, it's impressive. We broke the support here, you see that we barely, we barely went down a tiny bit. Here, we had our W. We barely recovered the neckline and we're going up again. So obviously, we can still drop, but compared to others that have already dropped significantly, you are here on a crypto that is performing very, very well. And you see that here our entry level for now, we are still relatively far from it, and that's rather good. Regarding SPX, well, on the other hand, we've suffered a lot. Well, it remains a meme coin. They suffer quite a lot, meme coins. So here we're reaching entry levels that are super interesting for the long term. Once again, the prices we have now are very interesting for the long term. It really reminds me of the situation we had around here. Okay? Around here. So you see precisely, it doesn't mean that now is the bottom and we'll have a V-shaped bottom like this. Okay? The probability of having a V-shaped bottom is now very low. We've been dropping for too long to hope for a V-shaped bottom. However, we can have something like this, you see, where we'll do something like this. Establish a real bottom over a significant period, perhaps for the rest of the year, but that's when we'll have very important buying opportunities. And when we start going up again, since the most probable scenario remains that of a consolidation before a bullish recovery, well, precisely at that moment, we will be best positioned. So it's always painful. I remind you that we have a big trendline, which is this one. So I'll show it to you right here. Hop, you see? So here we have a big trendline that reminds us a bit of the big trendline we could have had. Here, we had repeated capitulation phases, this one, this one, this one. And you see that it reminds us a bit of this one, this one, this one. So obviously, we are very far from our trendline, it's very likely that we will come back to work on it. Okay? So, it can happen like this. Okay. And then go back up. Okay. I'll extend this trendline a bit. It can happen over time. Okay, with the trendline going down and then going back up. It's entirely possible. But here, we are very far from the trendline, so there's a strong chance we'll have either a consolidation or a powerful bullish rebound. Okay? We are leaving a lot of liquidity behind us. I repeat this, but it's really crucial. If I show them to you here, we continue to leave a lot of liquidity. You see that here, despite the small rebounds we have, we are leaving a lot of liquidity lines above us, and we are systematically liquidating all the liquidity to the south. It has happened in the past, and each time it happens, when we have rebounds, the rebounds are powerful and durable. Durable in the sense of several days, several weeks, not like just yesterday, a rebound and it goes down again. Okay? It's likely we'll have something like this, or like this. Tac. In any case, we are in phases of excess. Okay? Bearish excess, like bullish excess, is systematically corrected. Okay? So we have retracements, we had a bearish excess phase, we will have a retracement. Now, as always, we cannot know when it will happen. And I remind you of the old adage, the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So it is indeed a time when one must be prudent. One must not start getting carried away, wanting to absolutely take positions again, doing revenge trading, and so on. That is very risky. If you have lost a certain amount of your assets, then unfortunately, you have to lie low for a few hours, wait for this famous rebound, and lighten up on a rebound. Okay? For those who wanted to lighten up, well, this could have been a time to do it here. Honestly, we had good chances of going a bit higher. Breakouts and rebounds, there will be others. The fact that we never reach the major highs we previously reached is precisely because we are entering a phase of excess, and anyway, like all phases of excess, they have an end, okay? Whether it's upwards or downwards. Okay? If you invert the curve, you'll see that here we have a nice parabola, and parabolas always end with reversals. Okay? And here, we really have a significant low. Well, we will have a bullish recovery to liquidate the last entrants on the short side. That's a bit of what's happening. We'll take stock tomorrow. So, there's no need to panic. It's a fairly classic purge behavior. We're finding support levels. Well, we're working on them again. We're still recovering liquidity below the lows. Well, there are fewer buyers, we need to be aware of that. But the positive aspect is really these fundings decreasing while the CVD is increasing. You see that if I zoom out a bit, the CVD increasing, it's been a very long time since that happened. It happened a bit during this phase which gave us a bit of a bull run, let's say, between $98,000 and $106,000. Well, you see, it's likely we'll have something similar. That is to say, recovering from $89,000 or even a bit lower, but to be able to go up calmly and liquidate all the opportunistic sellers who are entering right now. Well, I hope you are keeping a cool head, disconnect a bit from the market. Tomorrow morning, we'll see more clearly.