The Dollar Is Bluffing – Gold’s Next Leg Could Shock Investors | Tavi Costa & Michelle Makori

But the dollar cannot be this strong sustainably. The dollar itself is very overbought. If you want the dollar system to survive, you need a weaker dollar. And I think we're going to see it. That's going to be one of the most important changes in the macro over the next 3 to 5 years. How the dollar is going to lose this momentum that we're seeing recently, reversing it and going significantly lower in order for the dollar system to survive. That means your currency is going to go to the toilet. So, what you need to do is acquire more gold. Gold is going to be multiples of where it is today. We could see a double of the price today. 8,000 could be in 2 years. I am not a permaboo in gold. I just think this is one of the most bullish environments for gold for the next 15 years that I've seen. Going from hikes to cuts could be a very significant shift. We're going to be seeing silver prices establish itself in the three-digit space eventually here.

I do read our viewer comments, Toby, and our viewer comments are like, "Well, what is going on?" And you look at it, the fundamentals are there. Industrial demand, yes. Supply at least six year lows. Monetary debasements, devaluation, silver stepping into that role, AI, all of these new developments leading to more and more silver industrial demand. Silver being added to the critical minerals list, but the frustration is still there for a lot of silver investors. Why is silver down so dramatically again? And what gets it back up? So, where are your top opportunities right now? Talk us through your highest conviction opportunities.

>> This is The Real Story with Michelle McCori. Hello, I'm Michelle McCory and thank you for joining us here on the real story where we go beyond the headlines beneath the surface and behind the curtain to show you what is really happening with money, markets and power. My next guest was among the first macro strategists to highlight the recent crossover showing that gold had overtaken US treasuries as the largest official reserve asset held by foreign central banks. and he highlighted that this could mark the beginning of one of the most important global reserve reallocations of our lifetime. Joining me now is Tavi Costa, partner and macro strategist at Aurora Capital and one of the most respected analysts in the commodities and precious metal space. Now today he believes that the recent strength in the US dollar is temporary and sees the dollar declining significantly with major implications for gold commodities and global capital flows. Tavi, good to have you back with us. Thanks for joining us again.

>> Thanks for having me. Looking forward to this. All right, a lot to discuss, but I think it's important that we pick up where we left off last time because last time you joined us, Tavi, you highlighted what became one of the most important charts in macro investing these days. You were among the earliest, if not the earliest macro strategist to take Bloomberg data and chart it, showing that gold was overtaking US treasuries as the largest official reserve asset held by central banks. You showed that foreign central banks were holding more gold than US treasuries for the first time since 1996 and you said that this may be the beginning of one of the most important global rebalancings of our lifetime. Now since then to your credit that broader trend has received significant validation. And many other people picked up on that, including official reports from Bloomberg. And the ECB, the European Central Bank, now also confirms this, reporting that by market value, gold accounted for about 27% of global official reserve assets at the end of 2025, surpassing US treasuries at roughly 22%. And the ECB in its note said that this reflected both continued central bank gold buying and the sharp rise in gold prices. Um again the ECB effectively validating that broader trend that you were one of the first to identify if not the first. So looking back at that now um does this strengthen your conviction? You know last time you called it the chart that tells us everything. Is this still the single most important chart that investors should be watching today?

>> Yes. Well thanks for having me. I I do think this is if not the most important chart that I came across over the last few years. There's a few other charts. I looked at a lot of charts on a daily basis, but the creation of that to me is is such an important aspect for my conviction on the thesis because it's right at the central piece of the structural demand for central banks to continue to acquire gold and what I call the enhancing process of of their balance sheets which remains a very large percentage of it uh with treasury holdings and other sovereign debt instruments. I do think we've been moving towards a world uh which was accelerated after the Russian and Ukraine invasion uh or invasion in the Ukraine was uh the acceleration of this uh of this purchase of gold relative to treasuries and other sovereign debt instruments. But that chart what it shows is that that trend has finally crossed an important line and it's I I still think we're at a very early stages to me. I go back to my career personally and what I think I do um that where I have an edge on markets in general and it's not trying to figure out uh what the Fed is going to do in the next week or two but rather very focused on long-term trends and to me this is a very long-term story that will stay with us for the next five to 10 years and we'll put it in pretty much an anchor on the valuation of gold uh as we move forward and I think gold is going to be multiples of where it is today. So when I see a decline in prices like we saw recently, to me it's just uh an opportunity to be adding to my conviction uh and leaning on that and also uh very focused on what I think it's going to play out and unfold in the next few years.

>> All right, before we get to the gold price, um let's focus more on this chart and on this trend. You said that this validates your thesis. if you could summarize that thesis for us.

>> The thesis is that gold is returning as its importance as we've seen throughout many centuries and the cyclicality aspect of that it goes away in terms of relevance and then comes back. Um and we're seeing that return again. Uh a return of of monetary discipline, a return of people focusing on hard assets. uh an return of institutions finally starting to invest in what I believe to be one of the best opportunities of the next few years which is still uh gold and the metals and mining overall space and so yeah I you know this what central banks do eventually is a leading indicator for a lot of other large institutions the pension funds family offices hedge funds uh you name it and so we're in the beginning of that process Now we're seeing central banks now validating that they are you mentioned the ECB and others uh that are indeed talking about uh this type of of ownership now and in terms of hard assets and gold and it's a it's a matter of time until you start seeing this uh come out in in other in other metrics like family offices they'll barely hold any commodities or gold itself and so uh these changes are going to be very important for capital allocation and most likely will make uh a big change as well when it comes to valuation of most of those assets.

>> right? Um you know in that report the ECB said that central banks now hold more than 36,000 tons of gold and that is close to the level seen during the Breton Woods era when central banks held around 38,000 tons of gold and you see this trend accelerating. At what pace do you see this acceleration taking place and and is there a point when that trend becomes problematic for the global financial system when it creates tremendous upheaval? When I put together this chart, I was very uh much aware that this was a uh the chart itself had a lot of flaws. And the flaws with it is simply the fact that we don't know how much unofficially these countries and institutions are buying of gold itself. That's what's been reported and recorded. Now, none of us know how much is China does China really own of gold? How much does Russia own of gold or any other country even the US? I think you know somebody asked me a question recently about what would be some of the most important things that could happen in the near future that could really add to your thesis and what comes to mind it will be when the US finally uh officializes that they have been potentially acquiring more gold in the market and they are the ones that have been buying gold as well because a real buyer doesn't announce to the world and then goes there and buys it. That's not how the market works. Usually you acquire it and then you you tell the world that you just done that. And I think that there is a few central banks that are in the process of doing that and therefore why we tend to see these sort of limited selloffs. Yeah. Sell off that we're seeing now is is is very normal in the course of what we've seen in terms of a move in gold prices. But uh the what we in terms of the support that we tend to see in terms of buying is is tremendous. it continues to come in just because most of these central banks including the US as well the Fed uh they all require uh to have that in order to uh stabilize their own currencies and so it is such a critical aspect of the monetary you know global order that we're seeing which is shifting back uh while gold becoming a a very important anchor of value for every monetary system in the world and so what the ECB did is important it's a it's maybe it's the first step, but I I would like to see the Fed one day in maybe a year or two years, I don't care when it is, but announcing that they've been accumulating gold in a very large degree or maybe maybe it's the Chinese central bank that will say that in a very significant way. I think those are going to be very important and telling changes in in in history.

>> Uh indeed, two points to uh unpack that before we get into the current gold price. Uh well, we do know that the People's Bank of China is buying gold. It's just what many believe not reflective of the real amount of gold that it is buying or that it holds. But it is according to the World Gold Council accumulating gold very steadily, I believe, for the 19th straight month in a row. The US on the other hand, correct me if I'm wrong, has not officially acquired gold since I believe uh 1953. Um yet you are suggesting as well as other people have made a similar suggestion including Andy Sheckman. You think that the US is buying gold behind the scenes covertly? Is is that what you're saying would validate your thesis? Is that what you think is going on?

>> That wouldn't surprise me at all. So yes, I do think that that's very likely what's happening. Um and I I think there's a real effort to go back to to that. What what what evidence do you have to make that conclusion?

>> None of us have evidence. I none of us can have an evidence. All we can do is is analyze the imbalances that we're facing. And if we don't adjust for the imbalance by owning a hard asset to create stability for the currency, it's going to become problematic at some point, especially when you're in a situation where you need to you must lower rates to afford your own debt. what you know what's the cost of that your currency it's obvious and so if you're going to have to lower rates with clearly we're in an inflationary environment I don't care if we're going up or down accelerating on a monthly basis decelerating on a monthly basis from 10 years ago or five years ago or seven years ago or three years ago prices are much higher than they used to be and so if you're low having to lower rates in an environment like that and having to change the way you're calculating inflation, which is exactly what we're going through here. Change the calculation of inflation in order to justify that you need to have lower rates, which really is just a justification to lower the burden on your debt. What does that mean? That means your currency is going to go to the toilet. So you you need to do is acquire more gold. Now, I do think that that's, you know, that's to me that's the evidence. So I don't know it's actually happening. So I want to be clear. I don't know. And I don't think anybody knows but I do believe that eventually in the next who knows three to five years if we ever hear that the Fed has actually been acquiring gold would you know that won't be something that will surprise me that would be something I'll be saying wow that's very meaningful that they officially reported this.

>> Well Andy Shackman has a theory again it's a theory that the US is buying gold covertly. There's a shadow gold buying program and that can be done through the uh exchange stabilization act I believe where the Treasury Secretary uh can buy gold can authorize the Fed to buy gold with the approval of the government and it doesn't need to report it to Congress until sometime later. Again, that that's that's a theory, but you're saying when that comes out that validates your thesis. But look, what we do know to your point is that at least according to the official data, gold has overtaken US treasuries as the asset held uh most by central banks. And yet, Tavi, gold is down from its high of over 5,600 more or less at the end of January to around $4,000 uh dollars per ounce now. So, what is going on there? How do you how do you account for that downward move in gold?

>> Yeah, it's been a a very large move. It's also important to know that even at this decline, we're still pretty much double the price we were just a few years ago. So, it's just volatility. And if you think about what we've seen throughout history when it comes to uh money losing purchasing power really or populations losing purchasing power relative to hard assets, that volatility tends to be quite normal. Um I don't want to go to an extreme here but using uh the wear of of Germany situation that we saw back in those days and you look at that chart uh of gold prices uh relative to local currency it it was a it was a crazy volatile environment up and down but the trajectory was up over that period of of history and so I think we're kind of in a similar scenario here of course we're going to see volatility and it testes your conviction. Of course it does. Uh it's testing mine. It's testing everybody else's. Look how many newsletters writers in the space have changed their views recently. How many of you know even media has now started to report that this is the end of gold and and you're seeing banks changing their uh target prices to much lower levels than they used to when gold was uh approaching 5500. You know, it's it's remarkable to see how people change their uh uh their views just because prices have gone the other way. But the valuation itself of the metal has not changed at all. Right? With intrinsic value of the metal or intrinsic value of mining companies and other things that are attached to that uh have not changed at all. In fact, some of them have gotten a lot stronger. So, I don't know. I I tend to be it's almost like going to the grocery uh going grocery shopping. When you see something at a discount, it gets me more excited. So, I don't know. I to me this is a a very uh important window of opportunity. We don't see many of those. I posted a chart recently. This is the largest decline in gold prices of the period that we've seen about 80 plus days since the global financial crisis. And after that period, we went straight up. And so I don't think you want to be turning bearish here. Can we see lower levels? Sure. I'm I'm not trying to find a perfect bottom here. That's not how I make money. I do think this is a process of accumulation right now.

>> Okay. You know, point taken there. But again, what is the sort of common theory as to why gold is down? I mean, it seems to be because the dollar is strong.

>> Um, I think the dollar strength is one of them. Um, and the other one that is maybe even just as important if not more important is what we're seeing in interest rates, but in particular with real interest rates and I'm talking about the market. Don't get confused with when you talk about break even rates which calculate where you think CPI is going to be in the future is much less relevant for us um in society in general when it comes to what's the actual inflation that we're paying on a daily basis. Those are two different things, but policym certainly uses CPI and other really foolish metrics uh to to have a view on what's likely to happen with interest rates and other things. So that certainly had an impact here in the in the recent uh uh months uh know look at what's happening with in terms of the probability of the Fed raising rates now uh which is basically at 90 plus percent by September. Uh which I think is absurd. I I really don't believe that's going to be the case. Um and so those are the changes that cause gold to decline and could be the changes that can also cause gold to rise again. Um so yeah, I do think that this is turning into from a something that hurt gold, it could become a tailwind very quickly. Uh and and so it's an interesting environment to be here at a discounted and oversold levels. uh at a time when the Fed, you know, may actually have to fight every reason it can to start cutting rates uh here in the near future.

>> So, what is your outlook for what we can expect in terms of uh the Fed and interest rates under the new regime of Kevin Walsh?

>> I think it's going to be very difficult to see rate hikes. Um I'm not of that view. Uh I would love to understand that view. I think the only way you can justify maybe is is if if you really think oil prices will go to the roof, which is a real possibility here as well. Uh not what's happening here recently. Maybe for manipulation reasons. I don't need to get into that. It certainly looks a bit weird that the the price changes we've seen in the energy space. Uh but my point is that I do think that even in that environment uh the Fed does not have the capability uh and is not in a position uh that is able to raise rates uh as much as we're paying in interest payments to GDP close to 5% more than any other country of anywhere close of its size in the world today. it's going to be very difficult to make that move. And so it's very likely that we'll find every excuse we can to do the opposite of that. Um including one of the main ones which is changing the calculation of inflation and saying well we're actually seeing more productivity than we're measuring in in this uh in the calculation and perhaps uh inflation should be a lot lower. I remember not too long ago we used to talk about maybe changing the target. Well, that wasn't too clever because that's going to be too obvious. So, the other way to do it is just changing the calculation itself. I mean, AI is there for a reason right now. So, it's probably going to be used for that reason in in first and foremost. And in some cases, it's true. We're seeing some level of productivity and some changes that are important to measure. But that's, you know, inflation is still in the system in a huge way. And that hasn't changed at all. The story is still the case. So, we're probably going to see inflation stay here for the long haul as we see the buildup of artificial intelligence and onshoring across most countries and the buildup of infrastructure to allow those technologies and those changes to take place in in different economies, not just the US. And as we see that, that's still going to push material prices higher and inflation higher for that for that period of time.

Before we continue the conversation with Tubby Costa, I just want to take a quick minute to thank you all so much for watching our content and supporting us. Please make sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. And please do share our videos with your friends and family. I really appreciate you helping us grow this community. And if you would like to learn more about investing in precious metals, you can reach out to info@ milesfranklin.com. There is a team of specialized advisers and brokers standing by that can help you come up with a customized precious metal strategy that best suits you and your needs. And now back to my conversation with Tubby Costa, right?

>> Um, yeah, I mean uh Kevin Walsh has made it quite clear that he wants to look at how inflation is calculated. There is a task force one of five that has been um put together in order to examine that and there is some thinking that he would uh remove the uh extreme inflation contributors in order to get more of a a median than an average and that may in itself set the groundwork for a new way to look at inflation which could justify rate cuts into what would still be an inflationary environment just uh presented slightly differently. Um I I want to focus on the point that you said you know this is a similar sort of selloff that we saw around 2008 right before gold really accelerated. What could be the catalyst for that acceleration this time? You mentioned a reversal of where we are now. What would be like particular specific triggers that could set gold running up again?

>> There's some very important ones. Um look the the the formation of the thesis is there right still. So central banks are still acquiring gold. Uh we're still seeing that in the official data and likely happening out also in the unofficial data. Um but the macro reasons behind where gold could actually start rising significantly is certainly on the reversal of the view that we're going to see interest rate hikes going from hikes to cuts could be a very significant shift. I think that the dollar itself is very overbought. Um and in particular with most of the developed countries uh if you looked at emerging markets you can see that emerging markets have been very resilient despite this move in in in the dollar which is usually very telling. Uh when you see these types of movements you tend to see emerging markets fall apart. they didn't uh they actually held up pretty well which means it's just smart money taking the risk of going above and beyond to riskier parts of the market and not taking that risk or that exposure lower when they saw the dollar moving higher that is very interesting because they believe in the long-term story of those plays u I always pay attention to those things the same thing is happening with silver pay attention to how the silver miners actually perform very well uh you know relative to silver itself uh we if you look at the silver ETF SIL silver miners ETF relative to silver itself uh we went straight up on that on that chart and and that's not usual if you look at the COVID era when we saw a big sell-off uh what we tend to see is is is that the minor tend to lead to the downside so that's all you know little clues in the market that uh we're seeing uh real money real capital uh staying with the thesis over the long haul answer your question I It's a combination. It's rates and it's the dollar uh that are likely to be reversed. And when that happens, I think it's going to have a big push in gold prices as well. And positioning, look at the positioning and the flows. Uh those, you know, gold itself in terms of the even in the futures market uh the CFTC positioning is very extreme uh on in terms of being low uh and not high. And so that's going to be creating as well a lot of pressure on the upside for gold in my view.

>> Right. And you know to your point uh the dollar has been very very strong. It's been on a tear as we've seen the the war in Iran uh begin and and escalate. Two questions on that front, but let's assume that um we have some kind of uh shall we say resolution for now with with the war in Iran. And you know whether or not real agreements are made that really address uh the nuclear uranium issue, that's a whole other conversation. But if there is at least the appearance of uh hostilities being paused or ceased, what does that mean for gold?

>> Um, I don't think it changes much of the story. The gold ultimately despite the fact that in the near term it does have an impact on monetary policy. Uh and if you if you think it's going to be pausing the situation when it comes to the conflict itself uh from a monetary policy perspective would only add to the case that central banks especially the Fed would be in a position to start cutting rates again u not hiking rates. Um and that reversal would be very positive for gold. But I think it's important to always uh remember that deglobalization trends and maybe one of the main reasons why gold was moving the way it did right after we had that interview. You saw that gold uh our first or interview here or not first but our last interview uh about eight months ago if I if I'm correct. uh gold prices really began to move in a large way and maybe that was in sort of leading uh this conflict that we saw in Iran. None of us know but that would be very normal to see that as a you know one of the main reasons for it. Uh and then after that we saw the big decline as the conflict if you will uh supposedly got better. Um I think I think that del globalization is is a factor that plays in a favor of gold and de globalization is usually very much aligned with amount of debt in the world which we are at record debt levels relative to GDP globally and so debt creates wars and that's the situation we're in and so when you have debt at the levels that we are in it basically it suppresses growth at some point it's it becomes very difficult to create units of growth of GDP relative relative to debt. You need more debt for less growth. And as you see that occurring, eventually you start getting to populism. Uh you start seeing new uh political candidates on the right and on the left looking for promises that are just promises because they're, you know, they will never be fulfilled. Uh and and they're usually aligned with, you know, we're going to create growth, we're going to fix inflation, we're going to do this and and that's just populist ideas that will never work. uh because inflation is a much deeper problem that is related to the globalization disruptions in logistics uh and hard asset situation that I just mentioned of being misallocated and so that is at the core of the problem here uh the supply aspect as well and so you know eventually it all kind of feeds into gold uh when it comes to the globalization so I I just wanted to give you that caveat because despite the fact that it does have an impact on monetary policy in the near term term the bigger impact is that the globalization is here to stay. It's a longer term trend uh that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Well, you know, with regards to the strength of the dollar that we've seen, and as we've said, that does impact metals prices, whether it should or shouldn't, it does. Uh there was speculation that a big reason behind the United States actions in Iran as well as Venezuela was to defend dollar dominance particularly the petro dollar as we were seeing a trend towards ddollarization the bifurcation of the global monetary system an increase in oil being sold outside the US dollar really threatening the fundamentals of the petro dollar. So there was speculation that that was perhaps one of the reasons behind these conflicts and it now appears as though Treasury Secretary Scott Percent may have just given the clearest indication yet that there is a lot of truth to that argument. In a recent interview, Percent said that the United States moved against Iran and Venezuela in part because they were selling discounted oil to China outside the traditional dollar-based system that they were creating alternative channels for global energy trade that bypassed the dollar. Uh let's take a listen to what he had to say and then we'll dissect his comments on the other side. Dollar dominance is essential and everything President Trump is doing here is, you know, if you look uh the the new Venezuela is going to is invoicing in dollars. They're coming back onto the dollar system. They've been sanctioned, they were not allowed to translate or to transact in dollars. And now uh dollar the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade. You know, they were selling discounted oil to China and not getting dollars. you we're seeing in the uh Iranian negotiations the Iranians will be uh invoicing in dollars. So everything we are doing is pushing the dollar the back it it's never left as the centerpiece for the global currency system but we're reinforcing it. You know, I would anticipate uh when the Russia Ukraine conflict ends that Russia will want to come back in the dollar system because again you know that the dollar it's our liquidity, it's our capital markets, it's the depth and breadth. Everyone wants to be here and I think many times the great great thing about the United States is we we course correct when we go too far one way or the other. And I think we should not be the shy about flexing where we have advantages and where we have advantages share with our allies and push back the uh on those who they are are not aligned with us.

I mean there he is basically saying that the US intends to defend dollar dominance and has been doing so and that Iran and Venezuela were not just geopolitical challenges. They were selling discounted oil to China outside the traditional dollar-based system. And that meant that energy, one of the biggest sources of global dollar demand, was increasingly being traded through alternative payment channels. And it sounds to me that according to Bent, the administration strategy to disrupt those channels, push global oil trade back towards dollar settlement. As we know, the dollar's role relies on oil and other commodities being priced, invoiced, financed, insured, and settled through the dollar-based financial system. And to me, the takeaway is not that the dollar is about to lose its dominance, but that the US sees enough pressure from darization that it is actively working to defend the dollar's central role. Uh that it's using the military might to defend the dollar. I mean what is your read on what we heard from Bent there and what it means for the dollar?

>> Well, we've been moving away from the dollar system for a while and the dollar system still is extremely relevant to the global economy. What he claimed to be everyone wants to be here using his words. I wrote it down as as you play this. Um it is you know it is partially correct. It's not like everybody wants to be here at all but um it is what the system is built on. Uh and I would say that one thing that breaks that system is a strong dollar. It's it can't be that strong. It has to be the value over time. And the dollar this is the whole point of I mean if you want to get one thing out of this whole conversation is that the dollar cannot be this strong sustainably. Can it be strong for a month or two? Sure. It's what we've seen. Can it go long? I don't think so. I think I think it this is a very unsustainable path for the dollar system. We need to devalue it by a very uh uh considerable amount relative to other developed economies particularly to those that trade with the US and export or a lot to the US or in and the US is in a position right now uh that it needs to make those adjustments to improve its trade balance. The US has real issues right now. two big problems and Bassin is very much aware of this. It's a fiscal deficit and a trade deficit. And the fiscal deficit, the only way to fix it, you we all know it, it's reducing government spending. But if you do that, you go into a depression. You can't do that. So what are you going to do? You're going to lower rates because that's part of government spending. In fact, it's one of the largest government spendings right now. And that's a non-growth. It doesn't create anything. It only goes back to spend on uh paying down its own debt. Uh so if that goes away uh that reduces your deficit. Well, what about the trade balance? The trade balance is a real problem as well. It's compounding the debt problem because we're only uh importing a lot more than we are exporting. And I know a lot of people tend to say, but in order to be the the reserve currency, you have to be a net exporter. Yes, but not to a a very to the magnitude that we're seeing today. that that is too extreme just as much as the the the dollar being so strong is also too extreme. And so you need to see those two things change. I think that's going to be one of the most important changes in the macro over the next three to five years is going to be how the dollar is going to lose this momentum that we're seeing recently reversing it and going significantly lower in order for the dollar system to survive. Uh if you want the dollar system to survive, you need a weaker dollar. And I think we're going to see it.

>> Well, I mean, to me, it's sounding like they want to keep the dollar as the global reserve currency. They're seeing the trend of dedollarization. They want to maintain the petro dollar status that oil should be sold in dollars. And typically the agreement was at least with the Saudis back in 1971 was that those dollars are then recycled back into uh the US economy. 1973 I believe. Um so it it seems as though it's it's working at least in the short term though the the irony though here is that it could also encourage countries to accelerate their search for alternatives over the longer term. Do you see this strategy, you know, sort of reinstating the dollar, helping to keep the dollar dominance, or does this make the case for gold stronger as they see a need to find that neutral reserve asset?

>> Yeah, look, the the neutral reverse uh I guess neutral assets that have been used here recently have been gold. You can maybe claim Bitcoin. Who knows if Iran was using Bitcoin? is I think something I caught on for sure is the fact that how the dollar has been moving higher uh and maybe for those forces of the the conflict causing this uh this change uh and potentially also causing Bitcoin not to be used as much in that in that scenario now uh also causing some some some pain in that in that uh in that uh in that asset. But I I think that the multi-polar world is the right uh lenses of think about what the future will look like. And I think that gold is going to be that main neutral asset uh that will hold everybody accountable for uh their own monetary systems. And so monetary systems are going to have to go back to some sort of u you know fixing. I'm not saying complete fixes but uh some sort of anchor to to a real uh asset. And I think gold is going to be that uh historically the only asset that has centuries of history uh serving as as as the monetary metal. Uh and so it's very likely that that we're going to go back to that world. And so yeah, I don't

>> so so let me let me simplify the question perhaps. Um before the war, gold was at all-time highs and there was a dedollarization trend. Then the United States, right or wrong, started this war. Gold dropped dramatically since the war and the dollar's gone up. Has this conflict been successful potentially in delaying this global monetary change at least based on what we're seeing now or is this just a short-term blip? It sounds as though they've made that that clear that that was the agenda. He just practically said as much. Uh Treasury Secretary Scott Bent. So, did this conflict help um extend the dollar's lifespan as the global reserve currency in a way or is this a short-term blip and this will only then accelerate the case to go, excuse me, to go back to gold?

>> Well, look, I think he used the word flexing. That's exactly what they did, you know, but flexing doesn't mean winning. Um, and I would say that back in when the Russian uh when they seized the the Russian treasury holdings at that time, which caused a dramatic change globally and potentially a real change in the global order system when it comes to a lot of countries wanting to acquire gold and not have the dependency on the US, saying if they hold or not foreign reserves, which was precisely what happened during that time. I don't think what's happening today that you just mentioned is that type of shift. That's not what we're seeing. We're just seeing flexing to use his words. Um, and a currency that is bluffing. I mean, I don't think the dollar can go a lot higher. Now, how much higher can the dollar go before everything breaks and we need to cut rates and print money and do all sorts of things? I'm not sure that's really what the goal is that the uh this administration is trying to accomplish. So you want to use uh uh the dollar, you want to improve and uh um you know the length of the dollar in the system, you you can't have a collapsing dollar, but you can't al not also have a very strong dollar. So you need to have a a gradually weaker dollar over time. That's what you need. And so, you know, I I think that's exactly what we're going to see in the near future. Uh and and that's going to have play a role into a lot of other things because when you think about with those dollar movements and you take a step back and take like a 10-year rolling change of the dollar, you see a lot of correlations with things like foreign investments uh doing better than US-based assets assets uh or you'd see real assets or or or hard assets doing much better. So there's a lot of trends that tend to be triggered by a declining dollar trend which I think it's likely to happen.

>> Right. Um okay well you know we will uh see I mean the argument has been made that according to Triffin's dilemma the US does need a weaker dollar if the agenda is to u onshore manufacturing. But let's bring it back to gold and gold miners because uh last time you spoke you you on the show you said that you know the miners were still uh completely underpriced undervalued that there was a tremendous opportunity um and well we we did have a run up on the miners year-over-year but year to date if we look at the VANC gold mining ETF at least uh that's given back about 12% year to date But we have these mining companies continuing to generate record-f free cash flow. Now I believe you said that miners were working off gold at around 2500 to be profitable. Um and according to your math they should be doing so much better. So is that still is is that still the case? break down where you see the gold mine is now and and why they're not performing as expected

>> when investing in well first of all they're not performing because gold is down almost as much as it was or it is down as much as it was back in 08 during that time if you remember the gold miners were down 60 70% in some cases even 80% this time not quite you know you're seeing a lot of the major companies down 30 40% which is a very large discount Um, but the fundamentals continues to go upwards and that's the key aspect here. When investing in equity markets, you want to see fundamentals leading the way and they are. They continue to do better and better. And when you look at most of these companies, when it comes to margins, they've never been this high despite the decline in gold prices. Who cares? If you're if you're producing silver today at $15 an ounce, who cares if you're selling at 60, 55, 50, or 80 or 90, which was not too long ago. And so, uh, I do think that this is an incredible environment for most of these companies that continues to be misunderstood by the market. And that's that's just part of the game. Since we talked that time, I think we've seen a lot of that acknowledgment that this mining that the mining industry needs to be uh part of of of a portfolio and uh we did see a big move in a lot of these companies. Now, after that big move, uh we're seeing a bit of a selloff, a pullback uh that in my view is a pullback in the middle of a secular trend. So, miners uh today, if you look at free cash flow yields, have never been this high. that for those that don't know what a free cash flow yield means, it's one way to think about how cheap a company is, how much is generating in cash relative to its own valuation. That's what it is. And when you know that that yield is as high as it is today, uh which is higher than even uh any most companies in the S&P 500 won't have anywhere close to the yields that we're seeing in the mining space. And so this is a very attractive environment for those that are sitting on a lot of liquidity. uh and looking to deploy capital. Uh and I think that rotation back into the mining space is is only starting now. I think there's going to be very long lags into this uh this this this idea.

>> All right, let's uh shift to to silver now. uh because again uh when you were on the show which was about it that was in September or so I think silver was at around 45 then you said that we would see an astronomical run up in silver which in fact we did um and then of course it's fallen back down quite dramatically since. But um before we get into that and then the price of silver, last time you joined us, you suggested that silver could become a monetary asset for central banks that they would be accumulating silver as an asset. Now we did see some movements in that direction. The Saudis bought a big portion of uh the silver ETF SL. Russia increasing its uh silver holdings as well as India. Um are we seeing any progress on that front? I mean we did see the US add silver to its critical minerals list but do you still have conviction that uh central banks will become real outright buyers of silver?

I do and I think what slowed that trend here more recently is just the fact of how much gold prices have declined and you know it's making gold uh extremely uh uh you know I guess attractive for central banks specifically that are looking for uh uh again a real asset to to acquire. Um I do think that also uh the gold to silver ratio is less favorable than what we when we were talking uh that that prior time. Uh but I think that over time we're going to see much higher silver uh prices and as part of that I believe that we will see uh this move towards uh uh the metal becoming more of a monetary asset for a lot of central banks. Um I think know we've seen this throughout history. uh but that needs to be on the back of a stronger gold market as well which I suspect it will happen again. I don't know if it's in the next interview that we will talk to but I think that those are very uh slow changing uh dynamics uh in the macro environment that it's hard to time those things are very

It's hard to time, uh. It's, it's like talking about, you know, uh, central banks buying gold relative to treasuries. All those things, they don't shift very quickly. Uh, those are things that take years and decades to to change. Uh, but I suspect that we are, uh, moving in the right direction. Uh, but silver itself, that's one part of the story, right? Silver, the beauty of it, I call it the big three metals, uh, gold, silver, and copper. You know, to me, that, that's where I'm very focused on because I think those three metals have different reasons. Uh, they are sort of in the intersection of industrial or monetary, uh, uh, in terms of the the properties that they, uh, that they hold when it comes to the demand aspect. But they're all extremely tight when it comes to supply, extremely difficult to produce those three metals. And also, I would say, um, more critical than anything, uh, some for money purposes, others, uh, more for industrial purposes. And and so I think that the investors that will stay, you know, sort of focused on those three parts of the market, I think could do very well. And that's where exactly I, I'm trying to focus on.

When it comes to silver, you know, our viewers would say, look, we've been hearing this argument for silver for years now. And yes, the industrial demand is accelerating with AI and electrification and data centers and solar energy. So, and yes, there is a six-year supply deficit according to the Silver Institute. And yes, silver has that, uh, dual role as being a monetary metal as well as an industrial metal. But we're still at around, what, $56 silver at the time of this interview? And we had that break up. Silver came right back down again. Why? Why are these fundamentals not being reflected in the price? Is it that whole idea of, you know, futures contracts, paper silver, manipulating the price of silver down? What is really happening here that you see, still see, you, you see silver shoot up, drop back down, and yet the case, the fundamentals have never been stronger?

I'm laughing because you're so pessimistic on this.

I, I, I'm not pessimistic. I do read our viewer comments, Toby, and our viewer comments are like, "But what is going on?" You know, the, and, and you look at it, the fundamentals are there. Industrial demand, yes. Supply at, at least six-year lows. Monetary, uh, debasement, devaluation, silver stepping into that role. AI, all of these new developments leading to more and more silver industrial demand. Silver being added to the critical minerals list. It's all adding up. And yes, we are starting to see more physical silver, um, being, uh, in, in demand and, uh, taking, and, and contracts resulting in delivery of physical silver. But, you know, the frustration is still there for a lot of silver investors. And, you know, you're someone that has long been a believer in silver. Why is silver down so dramatically again? And what gets it back up?

Yeah, look, I'm fortunate that I've done very well in, in the silver space. I entered at the right time, and I had to endure some period of, of, of volatility, and then I saw a big move, and I was able to acquire assets. Uh, there are very much exposed to silver prices. Uh, in fact, one of them is the fourth largest silver mine in the world that we acquired outright, uh, as a, as a private investment. Um, and I can say to you that, look, this has been a wonderful environment to be in the silver space. Uh, we went from what, mid-30s, 30s, or, or high 20s all the way to $100 and $20, uh, an ounce, uh, for a brief moment. We came back to the 90s and 80s, and we stayed there for a bit, and we came down to the 70s, and we're now trying to find a bottom at the 50s, uh, area. I mean, that would have been unthinkable not too long ago. So, it's been a, I'm just trying to put into perspective of how much of a, a phenomenal move that we've seen in this metal. It's a very thin metal for those worried about volatility. Welcome to silver. It's a very volatile metal. It will always be that way. At least I can't say always, but I can say that throughout history, it has always been that way. Uh, and that's mostly related to how much silver is in the world. Uh, they're not many, uh, there's not much silver when it comes to supply. And the beauty, and why I focus on those three metals I said, is because the beauty of them is, is because we, as investors, have plenty of visibility when it comes to the new supply of those three metals, um, and we know it's going to be very constrained, um, and we know that very likely demand is going to be, uh, continue to move higher. And so I would expect that the prices are going to be very volatile, but the trajectory should be higher. Uh, no, we're finding a bottom in the 50s, right? Like that was, and you know, when I was investing in silver initially in my accumulation phase, even at in the teens and, uh, and area, or so forth, uh, when silver was trading, I don't know, $12, $13 an ounce. Um, now I remember people telling me, look, you know, why are you investing in this? Because this hasn't seen, uh, you know, uh, uh, record prices in in decades. Um, well, that's the main reason why are you investing? I wasn't invested in that when I, when I was, you know, I wasn't even born when silver hit all-time highs in the 80s. And so, um, I don't care. I don't care about what happened in the past. I'm focused in the future. Is there asymmetry there? Uh, is it the same asymmetry as silver in the teens? No, it's not. Now, let's be honest here. Is it the end of the the idea? No. I, I think, I think we're going to be seeing silver prices establish itself, uh, in, in the three-digit space eventually here. Um, and, you know, we're just seeing a normal level of volatility that you would expect after going from 20s and 30s all the way to 120. Um, you know, that's, that's normal. Uh, but it's a double from where it was when we started this move. And so, uh, you know, I think it's very, uh, positive what we're seeing. And for those that are focused in, especially in producing this metal at such a low level of price, um, it is, it is incredible business to be in.

So, where are your top opportunities right now? Talk us through your highest conviction opportunities.

No, right now, certainly, uh, we've seen a large move in gold and silver that is difficult to ignore when it comes to positioning. Uh, and so definitely been leaning towards that, uh, more recently when it comes to new capital being deployed, aside from one more thing that I'll mention in a minute. Um, this, the second aspect is, is things in my portfolio, at least, that I have not changed positions and I've been letting them grow over time here, which is copper. Uh, you know, copper has been very resilient. Copper miners have been very resilient relative to the precious metal space, and I have not changed anything there. Like, I, I do think, uh, copper prices have recently reached, uh, all-time highs. Um, you know, the, the prices are very close to all-time highs, even after this pullback we've seen recently. And I suspect that those price discovery phases, they don't end with a 15% increase from the prior high. They end with a complete new level in prices. And I think that that's where we're sort of, almost feels like this resilience, it's almost like, uh, holding a beach ball under the water, and, you know, and you can't hold it for too long. It's, it's sort of the way the analogy I would use for copper and copper miners. Um, in terms of other things that I've been gradually adding to my portfolio, especially in the last few weeks, uh, is emerging markets. I've, I've mentioned before that I've been very focused on emerging markets, in particular, Latin America. We've had a big, uh, uh, divergence between Brazil versus other Latin American countries, obviously, for political reasons. And I still think that there is plenty of reasons to be building exposure in, in Brazil and Latin America over time and taking advantage of, uh, of these pullbacks because, uh, what we're seeing there is very contagious, uh, when it comes to the political shifts, and the valuation of companies is, is some of the cheapest valuations I've seen in history. And so I'm very, uh, uh, excited about what's ahead for this part of the market. And I think that alongside with that weakening of the dollar, we're likely to see, uh, Latin America shine in a way that it hasn't shined in a very long time. And so I think we're in that cycle where you want to be, you know, looking for opportunities in emerging markets, uh, mining, metals of mining. And the third place that I've been sort of monitoring, because I was, I, I hope I mentioned this when I was in our prior, uh, interview, was energy, right? Energy was a big portion of my portfolio back then. Uh, and that was a success that I took a lot off the table, uh, during this, uh, last few months, and been redeploying into, uh, metals and mining and, and, and emerging markets. And so I, I do foresee myself going back to the energy space as well. But, but those are the areas that I'm very focused.

Okay. Um, we're going to circle back to emerging markets in a minute. Um, but, you know, a lot of the guests that we've had on the show are continuing to warn about a major equity correction in US markets, and I would assume that that would drag down the miners as well. But before we get into that, what is your outlook? Do you see a major equity pullback, correction, decline in the US markets?

Uh, look, it's very possible. Um, you know, I, I think, I think it's very possible, especially in the next one to three years. And if you think that way, and you look at interest rates again, go back to the hiking, uh, uh, you know, dilemma that we're facing here, um, in that environment, there is zero chance we're going to see hikes. And that's pricing the market right now. And so, you know, that doesn't mean that lowering rates is also positive for equity markets. We've seen many times in history where the beginning of rate cuts was precisely the beginning of major recessions in, in markets. And so I also don't, don't want to think that way either. Uh, what I do think is that, you know, the markets are very stretched valuation-wise. Uh, cape ratios, uh, above, uh, 40 level, uh, at levels that we've only seen during the tech bubble, and this is going back hundreds of years of history in valuations. And so, you know, deploying capital into US assets to me just seems, uh, very risky. I, I prefer, I prefer taking the approach of investing in emerging markets, um, where valuation, uh, could see, uh, some major expansion with fundamental growth, uh, that is likely embedded in those, in those, uh, multiples today that people are just overlooking. And so, um, I think it's unnecessary risk, and I would be, uh, very cautious to have that exposure in my portfolio.

But yet, you are exposed to miners that are listed in, in the US and on the US stock markets.

Yeah. But they don't trade like technology companies. They don't trade like,

Oh, well, yeah, S&P 500. And they're very different. What I meant by is not a US company. I, I meant more,

Uh, of a, uh, call it a,

But, but would an equity crash drag down everything with it? Would the S&P 500, the Dow tanking, would they take down everything with it if, if that is around the corner? A lot of people focus in '08, and a lot of people focus in what happened in 2020. In other words, the market decline, and miners in particular decline as well. I don't, I think the jury is out on that one. I think,

And the main reason for, go back, I, you know, go look at what happened in the 1970s. Um, how did the miners behave? If you have to cut rates at all costs, and the economy is decelerating, and markets are declining because earnings are falling apart, and they cannot justify these absurd multiples we have. You could get into a world where the miners actually rally, just because gold itself is rallying as well. Um, it is very possible to see that. Uh, and so I'm open-minded. Do I think that that needs to be the case? No. Uh, but I think people take that approach of saying that, that's, well, what happened in '08, and that's what's going to happen today. And I caution people that because I've, you know, I've been in the macro world for a long time, looking at macro assets and how they behave. And looking back in history is very important to see how different behaviors took, took shape at different times. And we are not, I mean, of course, this is a very different environment than, than, than the 70s. I'm not, what, what's different is the debt imbalance, right? The debt imbalance is way worse than it was back then. The Fed was actually able to raise rates in that environment. Today, no way. And still they raised rates, inflation was high, and still the miners went up, and the market went down. So be open-minded to that. I'm not saying you need to, you know, go crazy and on this, but it's a very possibility.

Well, you know, it's interesting that you're highlighting emerging markets and the, not necessarily disagreeing with some of our guests who are seeing a big crash coming in the US equity markets. And in fact, we got a very stark warning from, uh, billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham. Now, he's the man that predicted the dot-com crash and the 2007 housing collapse. And he is saying that, um, you know, we are on the verge of a huge, huge blow-up in US equities. He says that investors should avoid US stocks altogether. He's arguing that the market is now caught in what he calls the biggest investment bubble in history, driven by this AI trend. And his advice to the average investor is, do not own the S&P 500. Sell all of your US stocks and get into emerging markets if you're going to get into anything. Let's, uh, play a clip from an interview that he did on Diary of a CEO.

What advice do you give for the average person that's looking to invest their salary or their wages?

Don't own US stocks. That's a simple strategy that you can act on.

But what about S&P 500?

No. And if you have a big position in US technology stock, my personal advice would be to sell them all. Now, we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred. Foreign stocks of emerging countries, of European countries, Japan, Canada, Australia, and so on. They're much cheaper, and since the beginning of last year, they have handsomely outperformed the US.

What do you make of that, uh, Tavi? He goes on to say that he thinks if you're going to put money in any equities, it should be in emerging markets. He sort of started to touch on that there. Um, what do you make of that?

No, I agree with him. Although I do think that emerging markets, you know, I invest in emerging markets, as I mentioned before. It's one of my main targets to, in terms of capital allocation, but I'm also aware that, different than, than what I just mentioned about the miners, they do get caught up in recessions. And so I just need to be mindful of that as part of my allocation. Um, can they outperform S&P 500 in a decline? Sure. That's exactly what happened in early 2000s. You know, we go through periods of cyclicality when it comes to dominance in markets. Sometimes the US markets do are dominant, sometimes it's emerging markets, sometimes it's other developed markets. And I think we're due for the other two to outperform. In other words, developed markets and also, um, emerging markets relative to the US.

So, so when you say emerging markets, I know you mentioned Brazil. What is the best way for, you know, the average North American investor to get exposure to that?

Yeah, about 80% of the emerging markets index is is Asian. So if you're buying EM or you're buying any usual, uh, emerging market product, you're probably extremely exposed to actually not commodity producing economies. You're, you're buying producing or commodity importers, uh, for the most part, like China. Does that mean it's not going to perform well? It doesn't mean that. But I think that from a safety aspect, I am looking to acquire, uh, companies or invest in areas that I believe strategically, uh, will grow and also are likely to become places that are better than they, uh, that in, in the next 10 years. And I think that Latin America to me is the main focus of emerging markets, is the bucket that I want to be mostly focused on. And it doesn't only mean Brazil. No, not at all. I think that the whole, even if you look at the ILF ETF, which is the Latin American ETF, the sad part about it, it's basically 70 plus percent Brazil, and you end up missing some major opportunities. Or if you invest in the Argentinian ETF, majority of that is Mercado Libre, which trades like a technology stock. And so, you know, I think you have to be a little more thoughtful about what the exposure would look like across emerging markets. And in my opinion, um, I would be, uh, looking at a basket of names across those companies. The, the, the beauty of, or, or the problem with Latin America is that there are not a lot of companies that are sort of in your criteria to invest. In other words, for tax reasons, it's very difficult to invest in Brazil unless you're investing ADRs. Um, um, uh, and so if you're going to be doing that in Latin America overall, you're only going to have, uh, you know, not, not a lot of options of companies to invest. So you have to be very selective on what you're going to be buying. Um, I think that the traditional companies look very attractive, the banks, the financials, um, you can buy consumer companies, uh, commodity businesses look great, and so it's a combination of things to me. Uh, and taking different types of jurisdiction risks that you feel comfortable with. I, I'm happy to mention my jurisdiction biases, but I think that there, you know, Latin America is one.

So, Brazil, Brazil, you mentioned was one of those jurisdiction biases.

Well, you know, a lot of people like to invest after the fact, right? Uh, uh, like, for instance, now there's nothing wrong with investing in Argentina. There's nothing wrong with investing in most of the countries that have seen some of these big political shifts. But a lot of the performance in Argentina didn't come, uh, after, uh, uh, Malay was elected. Came as a pricing mechanism that he was going to get elected, and you need to take that approach with Brazil as well. Does that mean I'm pro-Lula and not pro-Malay? Like, people get way too hung up on those things. And the truth is that the real reason to invest in a place like Brazil has nothing to do with politics to begin with, right? The politics is this cherry on top. Brazil did a great, really well back in the early 2000s, and, and guess who was the president? Lula. And so, and it was the absolute best period to invest. Does that mean Lula is great? No, it doesn't mean that either. It just means that there's nothing to do with them. It has to do with your view on natural resources, uh, and the political leader, or I should say, the economic leadership of the country, uh, worldwide, and the situation of the dollar and interest rates, uh, in the US. Those things are going to be major drivers of what's happening globally and the valuation of things in the US. All the capital has been sucked into the US. As that capital starts to chase other things, it's going to go to places like Brazil. And so I think, I think that's just one area. Uh, I really like for more private investments, uh, and other more sophisticated types of investments. I think Bolivia looks really interesting. Um, I think not a lot of people are looking at that as a turnaround play, and it's certainly been a turnaround play. Now it's time to see the that manifest itself in the economy. Um, but the whole area looks attractive. Chile looks attractive. Mexico is one place that, uh, is also sort of in the Brazil area that needs to see changes. And again, markets look ahead of that, not, they don't wait for the changes, and then you see it. So you have to be, uh, willing to take that risk. Argentina is a great place to invest. It's a place where you're sort of seeing the developments right in front of you, and that continues to take place. Uh, Colombia, we just saw a big shift politically, that also looks attractive, um, and that can get momentum as, as well. Um, Peru, Chile, uh, those trade more like mining stocks. So, you know, there, there's plenty ways to sort of think about Latin America in my view. Uh, and, um, you know, but, but I, I like to have a basket of ideas. I was leaning towards energy companies back in the earlier part of the year. Now I'm leaning towards more traditional, uh, financials. Um, but, you know, I, I think there's going to be plenty opportunities in the space.

So Tavi, if we're sitting here, let's call it two years from now, what do you think would have surprised investors the most?

Oh, I think two things are likely to be taking place, uh, and I'll put another one that, that has a potential, uh, to also be part of this, uh, in sometime in the next two years as well. It's hard not to say that, uh, that, that, that won't happen. Uh, one is, and they're all kind of linked to each other. I think that we're going to see the major reversal of the dollar. Um, I don't know if it will be a collapse. I think it probably be more of a gradual decline of the dollar, but definitely not upward, downward. Um, and that's likely to take place in, in that period of time you mentioned. I think that we're likely to be asking ourselves, were, were we crazy to think that the Fed was going to hike rates? Uh, and, uh, you know, at that time, like, I, I hope you ask me that question in three years from now, because, um, you know, and time stamp on this, because it's, um, you know, I, I really don't think we're going to be sustainably hiking rates, uh, here in the near future, meaning go back to embarking into a tightening cycle like markets are pricing in right now. Um, and maybe number three of this, in the next two to three years, it shouldn't be out of your, uh, imagination here, that we could see a major decline in US equity markets. U, I think that's a real possibility. Um, and so, um, yeah, do I think it needs to happen that one? I would say that there's possibilities around it, but I think it's a real scenario that we should consider that could play into the interest rate trade in a large way.

Yeah, we, we sort of have unpacked those ideas through the course of this interview. Just to be clear, when you say major dollar decline, do you mean, uh, as in the Dixie with regards to other reserve currencies, with regards to purchasing power? What do you mean by that exactly?

Yeah, Dixie hitting, uh, you know, going to 85.

Uh, you know, again, it's not a collapse, right? But like, from a macro standpoint, it's very meaningful, and we'll, we'll call attention to a lot of other things that tend to perform well because of that. So, yeah.

And so, and you're not seeing the Fed rate, uh, hike rate. So, you know, I said two years from now, what do you think gold price will be?

If all of these things come to fruition, or at least some of them.

Oh, man, I don't know. I don't know if I want to be putting myself out there like that, because I don't make money doing that. Uh, it's going to be higher. Uh, could I don't know, Michelle, if I want to say crazy numbers here. So.

Doesn't have to be crazy. You can give me your base case. You give me your bullish, bear, and, uh, and base case. How about that?

Two to three years. You said.

Two years. Let's go with two years. Why not?

Um, I mean, we could see a double of the price today. So, you know, $8,000 could be in, in, in two years. That would be probably a, a bullish, just because we just saw a big move. So seeing another big move would be, would be very extreme. Um, but I think that,

What's your bearish case for gold? What's your worst case for gold and tears?

Um, you know, where, sort of where we are now, I think would be, would be sort of call it $43, $4400 would probably be a bearish environment, which is where we are.

Okay.

But, um, um, and I would say a medium, take, take the, in between those two, uh, if you want to call it a middle way, um, I am not bearish at all. Like, as you said, my, my, my bear case is higher than where we are now. So, I guess, um, some people call me permabull. I am not a permabull in gold. I just think this is one of the most bullish environments for gold for the next 15 years that I've seen. And I think that you want to be thinking, uh, as much as you can on how to make money, um, uh, the most asymmetric form you can find about getting over your skis, basically. And that's kind of what I've been trying to accomplish.

Well, you have accomplished a lot in your career. In fact, there have been some changes since last we spoke, including your move from Crescat Capital to Aurora Capital. What has been the best investment lesson that you've learned along the way, and perhaps that you've even learned the hard way?

Investment lessons? Um, that's a very good question. I think that one of the most important ones, uh, has been to not overthink the short term and lean on the long-term ideas. The best money I've made wasn't trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do in the next two weeks or the next interest rate move, uh, but really was buying great businesses and leaning on that exposure through something that they have underlying exposure to. So let's say a gold miner, a great gold miner, um, with, uh, with the fact that gold prices are rising. Um, that's, I think that's, you know, identifying those is, is, is huge, and not overthinking so much. I feel like, I hate to say, but especially in these types of podcasts and programs, people tend to be way too focused on levels, perfect levels, where things will bottom, where things will go into, and be more flexible to that. Uh, the big money is made on letting your thesis play out and not trying to perfectly time, you know, these sort of ups and downs that happen in between.

All right. Seeing, uh, seeing the big picture and having conviction to your long-term outlook and thesis. Tavi, we will certainly catch up with you before two years' time. So, we'll see how your thesis is playing out in, in between that time period and now. But thank you so much again for joining us. Really appreciate it, Tavi Costa.

Thanks for having me.

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