Transcription
Iran has now launched a aggressive attack on many of the Gulf states. You know, I, I, I think that this is really, I think it's really the start of the war. I mean, you know, this MOU is just nothing but, you know, buying time to, you know, basically start to fill up the oil reserves for a little bit. I was doing an interview with another very prominent voice who said, look, you know, this we're basically gearing up for a very large escalation that's going to happen or to potentially looking at Trump's going to go after Kharg Island. They're going to use many different proxies to try to, you know, they're not going to want to risk US lives, but they're going to try to start a war and use proxies to basically get entangled to try to weaken the Iranian leadership. So, I'd like to get your expert analysis on that war because we have so many darn wars and conflicts going around the world. What are your thoughts on Iran as we're looking now in, in middle of July?
>> I just want to remind people that the United States fought an unsuccessful 39-day war against Iran. People tend to forget that. And we lost. We came at with Iran with everything we had other than nuclear weapons. Uh, B-2 bombers, massive ordinance penetrating bombs, uh, cruise missiles, other missiles, standoff missiles, long-range strike missiles, F-35 aircraft, F-15 aircraft, A-10 aircraft. You name the aircraft, we had the aircraft. We didn't just lose, we depleted our strength. Uh, we don't have, uh, stockpiles of, uh, air defense systems capable of, um, repeating that exercise. We don't have, uh, stockpiles of long-range strike weapons capable of repeating that exercise. So, when people keep saying, well, we're getting ready to see, you know, another full-scale war. No, we're not because the United States is incapable of fighting that kind of war. We can't do it again. We can do short bursts, which is what we're doing right now. And then the, the other thing that we can't sustain over time is, you know, another oil crisis. Uh, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut right now. Iran has mined the, the southern approach that the United States was advocating, the Omani coastal, you know, transit pathway. That's gone. It doesn't happen. Doesn't exist. The only way you get through it straight on was going through Iranian controlled passages and you have to pay a premium to do that and if you don't, then you get sunk or you get hit and United States can't change that calculus. I don't know how many times we have to listen to Donald Trump threaten to take Karg Island. Apparently Donald Trump doesn't know anything about how to do amphibious assaults and what the consequences would be. How are we going to take Karg Island? I mean, I'm curious because the two Marine amphibious ready groups are on the other side of the, the Strait of Hormuz. They got to go through the Strait of Hormuz to get to Karg Island and they're not going to get through the Strait of Hormuz. So, where do you? How do you get the Marines there? Well, you use helicopters. Okay, I want to remind people that the last time we did a large-scale helicopter assault on a defended island was Koh Tang Island in May 1975. Didn't go well. Eight of the 11 helicopters approaching were shot or damaged. Three, I think three of them were shot down, a number of Marines killed and we ended up having to evacuate under fire. We left three Marines behind who were captured and executed. Leave Marines behind, but that's what we did there because we lost that battle. We will lose the battle of Karg Island, not because Marines can't fight, but because some battles just can't be won. That's the reality of it. So, you know, what's he talking about taking Karg Island? We're not going to take Karg Island. If we land paratroopers on it, they'll all die. If we land Marines on it, they'll have to be evacuated. So, it's a fantasy world that he lives in. He talks about things that just aren't going to happen. But the big thing that's not going to happen is that, you know, he can't afford to have the global economy shut down right now. You know, Saudi Arabia rediverted 70% of its oil production away from Strait of Hormuz routing through Yanbu and [clears throat] that means that now it has to exit using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthi could shut that down at will and then right now the Houthi are sort of in a, that's in Yemen, are in a shooting match with Saudi Arabia and its proxies and that may very well go that they will shut down the Bab el-Mandeb. To be sure, many have even it Iran's thermonuclear weapon. The nuclear weapon, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively shut down. Whatever, you know, J.D. Vance said, "Oh, the MOU is just fake." Well, thank you, J.D., for that burst of honesty. You now confirm that Iran said about you and the United States, we're in agreement incapable. It was just designed to buy time for the United States to get oil supplies up. Okay, we got the oil supplies up. And now what? We're, we're engaged in a struggle now that's just reversed everything we gained. And it's only going to get worse. The United States does not have a military solution to this problem. Iran does have a military solution to this problem, but Iran also has an economic solution to this problem. You know, this, this is the fact. So, I don't see us heading towards a major war simply because the United States can't afford to do it. What I see is the United States being agreement incapable. And I also see that Iran understands this, and Iran doesn't want, you know, to have war without end. Also, remember during the same time that the United States upped its oil supplies, I think Russia, China, Iran sold 60 million barrels of oil. That's a lot of oil. That's a lot of income. They'd like to keep doing that. Um, they want connectivity with the East, not, not to be, you know, cut off. And so, what I think you're going to see is just this permanent state of a, of hybrid warfare backed by what I call hybrid diplomacy, fake diplomacy. Both Iran and the United States understand there will not be a diplomatic solution. But they will both continue to talk about an MOU and talk about terms that'll be implemented partially at the convenience of both parties. And then, when they reach a wall, they'll devolve back into tit-for-tat conflict that will burst out, and then they'll resolve it, and we'll continue. And just enough oil will flow through the Strait of Hormuz to keep the global economy from collapsing. This is, I think, the intent of the United States. Now, Iran could force the issue by simply shutting down not just the Strait of Hormuz, but shutting down Bab el-Mandeb, and then pound the living dog poop out of the, the Gulf Arab nations that are supporting the United States, which appears to be what's going on right now. They still have the safety valve of Bob Allen Deb, but if [clears throat] they shut that down, the United States has no recourse. We will have to make certain concessions. There is no long-term sustainable path towards victory for the United States against Iran. We, we don't dominate any aspect of this fight. The Iranians do. We can create short-term disruptions, but again, we've already proven for 39 days we hit Iran with everything we had and we didn't, we, we, we didn't win the war. They won. They win by surviving. They win by holding on to their strategic objectives by redefining the conflict. This conflict started out as a regime change conflict and ended as a energy security conflict. And Iran is the one that successfully transitioned into that mode and we don't have an energy security solution. We can't force the straight. We can't taking Kharg Island doesn't solve anything, by the way. It's just a stupid move of, you know, a concept it look like the United States can do something. We can do nothing. And the Gulf Arab states that are supporting us are paying a heavy price right now. Being, being hammered and I think the Iranians are prepared to continue hammering them. At some point in time their resolve will break because they'll recognize that the United States doesn't have a plan for victory. There is no path for victory. And the only way that these nations were energy producing nations, the only way they can survive in a sustainable fashion is to keep their economy functioning. Their economy can only function through the continued sale of energy, oil, gas, and that only happens if the straits are open and the straits are closed right now. So they're starving, economically starving. And the rest of the world is going to starve, too. The United States was paying a huge diplomatic price prior to the termination of the 39-day campaign. The world barely recovered and some case I saw a graph I didn't have a chance to, to fully assess it, but I saw a lot of red arrows going down. So I assume that means a lot of bad things are happening in energy supply and, and the economy and that's the, that's the reality of it. And this is also be bad for the United States at the, for Donald Trump at the midterm elections. So the, the path the United States has taken is unsustainable path. Iran can sustain it a lot longer than we can but neither side wants to have a permanent state of a full scale war. The, the question is how do you get the United States to agree to concessions that are reflective of reality. The United States continues to want to, Donald Trump wants to, um, you know, gain it to negotiating table that which he failed to gain on the battlefield and Iran is not going to sacrifice the, the advantages they have. What would happen to Iran if they gave up the Strait of Hormuz? They'd lose all leverage. They're not going to give up the Strait of Hormuz. What would happen to Iran if they gave up their ballistic missile program? They'd be dead. They're not going to give that up. Their nuclear program, they're just not going to concede on issues of sovereignty. The United States could easily have come up with a nuclear solution but it would have been one that reflected reality not the fantasy that the digital's trying to impose of zero enrichment, zero etc. But right now I just see us going through this, this seesaw of, of conflict. Escalation, de-escalation, escalation, de-escalation, escalation, de-escalation. I don't see us lurching towards a resumption full scale war simply because the United States is not a position to, to wage that kind of war anymore. We don't have the ammunition to do it.
>> Yeah, I believe I, I don't think there's a military solution for the United States. It's basically going to come down to a question is how badly do we want to lose this war, right? How badly do you know, when, when do we cut our losses and if and essentially get out?
>> That's a political question and I, I don't think that that question can be accurately answered till after the midterms. And so
>> [laughter]
>> because Donald Trump's not going to take the political risk of being seen as a weak leader prior to the midterms. So that's why I think we're going to see this kind of escalation. After the midterms I think reality is going to bite hard. Donald Trump will have to make certain concessions that are reflective of reality.