Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are feeling great. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video on Saturday, November 15, 2025, in front of a slightly red crypto market. This is normal, it's the performance over the last 24 hours because yesterday we took a big hit again, like on Thursday. However, today, this little Saturday is starting in the green since the opening of the hourly candle at 1 AM, we see that everyone is in the green. It's going from about +1.5% for Bitcoin, for example, to certain altcoins that are performing very well, like +6%, +7%, +8%, I even saw +10%. So let's hope we have a weekend where cryptos breathe a little. It will do good because for 2 days now, our bottoms have been squeezed tight because it's been hurting a bit. In the traditional market, it started in the red, not pretty. However, unlike cryptocurrencies, it closed in a slight green. For example, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at +0.06% for the Nasdaq and -0.05% for the S&P 500. So ultimately, they both opened in an ugly red, but before the stock markets closed, poof, the S&P and Nasdaq came back to zero. So there was a bit of buying back by American investors on the stock market, but in crypto, we didn't have any buying back yesterday, we unfortunately closed in the red, not very pretty. Well, we'll see if something magical happens this weekend, meaning some good buying in the big green.
So, a quick overview, we see that this week Bitcoin has been on a downward trend. Ethereum too, but Bitcoin continued to fall a bit more on Friday than Ethereum and other altcoins. Having a small bearish channel like this is very, very nice because it has a high probability of reversing. This style of bearish channel is the style of the end of a downtrend exhaustion structure, and so this is very good for a structure to start again. So it's starting to look not too bad. The S&P 500 also fell, the Nasdaq too, gold fell. The barrel made a small move upwards. The dollar regained some strength, and US Treasury bonds were bought a bit by this move. It's normal when people are scared, they go back to cash, they go for defensive assets like Treasury bonds, for example.
So, if we look a little bit at this morning's liquidations, well yes, there's still some to liquidate, anyway, there's always something to liquidate on the downside. Now, after looking at the balance between the two, we have the open interest that has risen significantly, so there are still quite a few positions opening. The funding is quite flat for now. So it's pretty much a tie between longs and shorts. If the market decides to go and blow up this cluster between $94,000 and roughly $90,000. Knowing that the gap is still there, that famous gap at $91,970 that is waiting on futures contracts. So, will the market go and eat this little cluster up to $92,000 or even lower? It remains possible. The advantage is that there is still a lot of liquidity to the north. But it's normal, by falling, falling, falling, people short, short, short, and at some point, there will be a lot of liquidity to the north that will need to be sought out one day. The problem is the big whale defending its short positions. For example, we see this big nuclear red line here, which is around $96,600, which are sell orders. And you see that since Bitcoin hit those sell orders, it was this morning around 4 AM. It can't get past them, you see. So, unfortunately, there's a big whale who said, "I'm putting my big sell orders at $96,621," and surely there are shorts higher up. But when you're rich, how do you make money when the market isn't good? You short and you sell, that way you help the market fall, so your short is even better if you want, and so you'll make money with your short, and at worst, you'll buy back lower on your spot, you see. So when you have money, it's easier. Well, we'll see that in this evening's analysis, of course.
So, what are the latest news? Given the crypto market that has totally crashed, it's not pretty. We are at market sentiment levels not seen since the beginning of the year, for over 8 months. This is completely normal. So why are the markets crashing like this? Global macroeconomic uncertainty in "OK shutdown" mode for the government is over, but we have no data, no data for investors, at least in traditional finance, who are navigating the ocean of finance with macroeconomic data that tells you "watch out for the storm here, watch out for the storm over there." You see, there have been no economic figures for 40 days, for a month and a half, and so what do they do? How do they navigate? Well, they navigate in fear, in the fog, and investors navigating in the fog say, "Oh no, I'm not navigating." So they stop the boat, they take profits, they sell, and they simply wait. Some just turn off the engines and wait, but others turn around and go home, and it's those who sell, unfortunately, who capitulate. So the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to extreme fear at 10. We haven't seen this level of extreme fear since February 2025, with Bitcoin falling below $95 billion. It's normal. So this suggests that the market is in extreme fear levels, some of which we haven't seen since the beginning of the year when Trump announced those tariffs and we fell quite severely. Now, does this mean that the bottom is here, that it's good, that it's over? No, it just means that we are in zones where bottoms can form because we are in zones of extreme fear, and it is in extreme fear that bottoms form. Basically, bottoms form when everyone is afraid it will fall further, when people sell at a loss, that's where a bottom forms. As long as people remain bullish saying "No, no, it's fine, we're going to start again, we're good, we're good." Well, it won't be a bottom, you see. That's the idea.
We have André Dragos, head of research at Bitwise, who says that the sentiment index is bearish but less so than during previous corrections, despite the price drop. And he says, "Our sentiment index at Bitwise also continues to show positive divergences." So, even though Trump ended the government shutdown, normally everyone is back to work on Monday, these lazy people. There is still this uncertainty about how the macro data will be. Will the employment data be catastrophic? Will it show that employment is not doing well, with many jobs or rising unemployment, or things like that which would be positive for interest rate cuts? But inflation, will the data show inflation continuing to rise? And in that case, interest rate cuts, forget it, and we would be in the worst-case scenario, which is stagflation, where inflation rises, the economy collapses, and if you cut rates, you feed inflation which will continue to rise, but your economy is falling apart. If you don't cut rates, well, your inflation might not rise, but on the other hand, you're not helping your economy, you see. So the Fed and the coyotes are in a bind, and it's complicated for them. Jerome Powell will have to buy a chastity belt.
So now, can Bitcoin go lower? Given the high pessimism in the markets, yes, it can go lower. Especially since there was no rebound on Friday, like the market fell, fell, fell, and then that's it, there were big, big purchases. However, the American indices were bought back before closing. You see, that's the little problem. So, it's certain that this big lack of visibility and correction is leading the majority of analysts to think that it's a lack of visibility on the main US economic indicators. Basically, we don't know how one of the world's leading economies, the United States, is doing. Is it not doing well at all, with people losing all their jobs and inflation exploding upwards? Is it actually doing well because people are getting a bit more work and inflation is calming down? We don't know. We don't know, you see.
Well, and since we don't know anything, and there's no data, investors are a bit in fear or stress about the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. We have no idea, no data. We have no idea what the Fed will do. They also have no idea, you see. So, as long as there are no macroeconomic figures coming out for inflation and employment, investors are in "Well, why would I buy the dip, why would I buy when we don't know how the economy is doing?" Well, there you go. And so, in short, it's the economic data that could orient the market upwards, downwards, orient the Federal Reserve towards an interest rate cut, no interest rate cut, and no economic figures, no bread, no chocolate.
Well, also, you should know that the bill that Trump signed the day before yesterday to stop the US government shutdown is only until January 30th, you see. So some say it's not great because he's just pushing the problem further down the road because if at the end of January Republicans and Democrats don't agree, it will be the same joke. Let's go, rush, shutdown of the American government, everyone goes home, no more figures, and investors say, "We're just pushing the problem down the road, so we haven't solved the problem." It's like the tariffs. Tariffs between the United States, China, and even other countries, they pushed the problem back a year, you see. So it's normal that investors, especially in traditional finance, who have a long-term vision, don't like it. You anticipate everything months and months in advance. You see, if you're told this problem is postponed for 2 months, you're like, "Okay, well, that doesn't help me, you see." Well, that's the idea. So that's why the markets aren't looking too good. Well, it's the macro, unfortunately, that's driving the markets, especially traditional markets, and crypto markets are now highly correlated with traditional markets because more and more traditional market players are arriving with their billions and buying the crypto market. So it's the same people, you see. Except they are more inclined to easily sell the crypto market, which is more volatile, riskier, and keep their stocks, which are less risky. And so the main driver of Bitcoin, yes, is macroeconomic liquidity. To be able to send Bitcoin to the moon, we would need good news, good macro catalysts, especially in terms of liquidity, meaning interest rate cuts by the Fed, which is good liquidity, direct liquidity injection by the Fed as well. Well, all of that would revive optimism on all risky assets like cryptos and stocks. But for now, well, there's nothing, you see. So since there's nothing, well, they're not very bullish.
Well, now some think that Bitcoin could go lower, like John Glover here, director of research at Lindy, who says we could go down to $84,000. This is a very interesting level, I will show it to you in this evening's video or in the long term tomorrow. It's the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement since we left the bear market, and as long as the 0.382 Fibonacci is maintained, you are still in a bullish market. If you start to break this 0.382 Fibonacci, it's not good at all. It's at $83,000. So as long as $83,000 is held, it will be fine. If $83,000 is lost, ah, it will start to be ugly, and breaking the previous low of $74,000, then yes, it will officially be ugly.
Well, others think we are in a Wyckoff distribution model. Bitcoin could fall to $86,000. So you see, there are analysts. Now, it's not because they say that that it will happen, but well, some say let's go, Fibonacci retracement $84,000, others in Wyckoff which sends us to $86,000. So some disagree that we will just go to the gap at $92,000 and start again, you see. And here the Wyckoff level would send you towards $86,000. I want to say, since the 0.382 Fibonacci at $84,000 is not very far, why not see the 0.382 Fibonacci, you see, $84,000.
However, we have other analyses that are quite optimistic. I shared this with you on social media. It's the CEO of Crypto King, Jungju, who tells us that the average purchase price of holders, let's say in the short to medium term, rather medium term, those who have held Bitcoin for 6 to 12 months have their average purchase price around $94,600. And so they will defend their purchase price. You see, it's normal. When you bought between 6 months and a year ago, you bought Bitcoin, and when it comes back to your purchase price, you clearly buy more. Well, sometimes some don't want to buy higher than their average purchase price, but as soon as it comes back, some will support that price. So for now, it's supported at $94,600. However, if we start to break $94,000 severely, then some will sell at a loss. Because investors who have been here for not very long, as soon as they see their portfolio in the red, say, "Oh my god, I'm selling, I'm too afraid of losing more money, so I'm selling at a small loss because I'm afraid of being at a bigger loss." So if $94,000 starts to be broken badly, we could indeed head towards $92,000, $90,000, or even $88,000, $86,000 lower, you see. And that would cause many people to capitulate. Well, we'll see all of that in this evening's analysis, of course.
Moreover, tomorrow is Sunday, and like every Sunday, I will do a long-term analysis to see where we stand. Sending you kisses, friends, stay strong. Have a good day, and we'll see you tonight for the analysis. Bye bye. [Music]