Transcription
Hey everybody, thank you for joining. It's Saturday. I think it's a holiday weekend in the US, and I see people are in holiday in Rio. Awesome. Thank you for coming, Sean D and TND. Let's get into what happened this week. And, uh, I'm here, but just about, uh, waved everybody, but let's get into the story. You don't need to see me today, but proof I'm alive.
Uh, we had, uh, a lot of weird stuff happen in August, and I'm trying to get a handle on, did our seasonality change? And we'll talk about seasonality for specific assets and uncovering some very interesting patterns that you've never seen before. And there is a change in momentum. Things are not completely dead. And we have rate cuts looming in September. And normally, at this stage of the bull run, that does not happen. So, this time is going to be different. There's a lot of other good stuff as well coming up, and we'll look at a ton of data too. So, thank you all for coming, and our financial advice.
Now, first of all, Bitcoin monthly returns. What is kind of interesting? I did warn it's like it's a few times I've mentioned in the month of August, and we have what, one day left. I think I said this looks like it's becoming to be a little bit of a wreck. It's down. August is normally kind of a flat month, like down 0.6% or something, but this time it's down 6%. Very weak. Markets are rattled for a number of different reasons. But the question is, what's going on? Could this bode well for rect? And that's the pattern that I think is kind of interesting because the exact amount that we're down so far for August, 6%, is how much we're typically down for the month of September if history repeats. I don't know if it's going to repeat, but we do have that on the horizon of the rate cut and some other bottoming signals.
But before I get into those, we also have a little bit of fear. We had more whale dump worries. Same whale who dumped 24,000 Bitcoin last week, he resumed moving funds from a wallet containing another 24,500. So maybe just some taking profits. Their total bag size about 153,000 left, 17 billion spread across multiple connected wallets with funds originating apparently from the HDX deposits six years ago. So here we are. This rattled the market yesterday and caused a bit of a flash dump, a brief freaked out as usual, and then the market resumes upwards again.
But let's look at some other macro signals around Bitcoin that are kind of interesting. First of all, Bitcoin hits the short-term holder cost basis. Thank you from James from Check on Chain. And the short-term holder cost basis normally in a bull run acts as support, but we can dip beneath it as we saw during the tariff tantrums in April 2025. We dipped all the way down to the, uh, 200-day moving average. So, here we are. Short-term holder cost basis typically acts like support, and I expect that to happen this time as well. Could be wrong, but again, people use it as a good time to enter a trade.
Also, realized cap continues to increase. This is a very, very bullish sign. This is the orange line on the right, and the realized cap is about 1.2 trillion, and that is very good. We're not seeing any crazy freaking out, any crazy drawdowns, any drop in realized cap. It's been very, very steady all the time. Keeps on going up and to the right, actually, at a pretty high level, and has been doing so since late 2023. So, that's also good news.
In addition, we had gold spiking to a new all-time high. Who cares? Who cares about gold? Well, I actually honestly don't. Unless it's to find out what other assets are going to do, then I care what gold does. So, when gold breaks a new all-time high, what happens to Bitcoin? Well, exactly 30 days later, Bitcoin breaks a new all-time high. Again, if history repeats, we can see last time this happened, gold hit a new all-time high, the beginning of April, around April 8th, and then exactly, exactly 30 days later, around May 8th or so, uh, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. Now, the blue line is gold. I forgot to mention, red is the pink, red, whatever color that is, is Bitcoin. You can see Bitcoin's tanking, and gold is breaking to a new all-time high. That is a very good omen as well for digital gold, aka Bitcoin.
And other good news, and I'm not just trying to find the good news, I'm trying to find the bad news, too. But I just see a lot of bottom signals. And this is after weeks of declining inflows into the Bitcoin network and the ETFs, etc., and a slowdown in the treasuries. Bitcoin saw its first daily print of increasing flows this week. That's the first sign that Bitcoin structure is bottoming. The inflow bottom right again, it was flat, and now it's petering up again, which is a good sign. Let's look at what that looks like on the ETFs. You can see here ETF sold off hard August 15th, August 18th, August 19th, August 20th, August 21st, and August 22nd. And then they started coming back by 220 million, August 25th, 88 million, August 26th, high 81 million, August 27th, and 178.9 million on the 28th of August. And that is not bad. A lot of the buying actually is coming from ARC, surprisingly enough, not so much BlackRock. Interesting. Anyhow, this is a good sign that maybe the money is flowing back.
And for those of you freaking out, there's a lot of FUD flying around the internet right now that, oh, the cycle's over. Oh, all these so-called, I hate the term influencer, and please don't ever categorize me as one of those, but all these so-called influencers out there are saying, "Yeah, I sold all my bags." And yeah, you can't trust anything anybody says. Okay? Most people are just playing a game. Maybe they're trying to put the price down so they can per it long, or maybe they're short. I don't know. Just be careful out there.
But just look at this. This is the institutional demand from Bitwise. So far in the year to date 2025, there is more than 6x consumed from institutions than there is actual amount of Bitcoin being mined. Numbers about institutions bought 691,000 Bitcoin this year, and the miners only mined 109,000. And again, 6x more supply than demand. And that's just institutions. What about everybody else? Very interesting to watch. So, still not over.
And shout out to Malay. They now want you to pay your taxes in Buenos Aires. Shout out to anybody in Rio. We have somebody watching in Rio live. Don't pay your taxes in Bitcoin. Maybe some crap coin. If you got some overvalued token, we'll talk about some of those in a minute, too. Maybe use those. Do not use your Bitcoin to pay taxes. Use fiat or some, some what else. Uh, they wouldn't want it if it was bad. Okay.
Now, we did have a bit of a rough week for crypto. Uh, whatever Penu is, Arbitrum, OKB, I actually called it OKB. That was probably sell-off after the tokenomics change, XLM, all the other stuff down to the right. It's been a very rough week across the board. And then you got two things on the left, uh, up, you know, only about 5% of IP and PI. I don't look at those things. Don't know what they are. But the other thing is Sol is number three there, up positive for the week, and then Hype as well, positive for the week. Everything else was down, which is pretty shocking, but it shows you we do have a bifurcated market and things are changing.
Now let's talk about Bitcoin again because this pertains to crypto, and for some assets, it's very important for them to make money. If it's a store of value, I don't know. The jury is out on this one. But if you look here, this is from August 26th. Fees as a percentage of the block reward just dropped to the lowest level since, oh, pre-before 2015, 2016. Some people say 2011 levels when the data goes back. And that is crazy. That's more than a decade-long, 14-year-long low. But it's clear, and we knew this as well, that the ETFs and the Bitcoin treasury companies stacking so much Bitcoin would suck a lot off the shelves and have a negative impact on Bitcoin's free market. A lot of people are freaking out by that. Some people believe, well, if you want to pump up the free market, hold your own keys and trade yourself. Don't give it over to the ETFs and treasury companies. But, uh, that's up to you.
Um, but it is interesting to see the fees are drying up, which does affect the Bitcoin miners as well. But that is crazy how low. Let's compare the actual fees because I always like to check charts with actual data. And we go to the SCP Profiler. We look at the fees. Daily transaction fees, 1.7 million for Solana, 363,000 for Bitcoin, and Cardano. Congratulations. $129. Shout out to them as well. We'll get into that in a second because that is a bit alarming. But I do want to point out though that Bitcoin actually made more in fees than Ethereum a month or two ago. I remember seeing this exact data. So the fees are definitely down for Bitcoin, and they are up for Ethereum because Ethereum is getting interesting.
But people asked me what's going on with Cardano. I don't know. But I checked in on Twitter today to see what was happening, and this is a guy called Flexington.fu. He said, "Yep, government governance killed it in my opinion. It was already struggling with super low on-chain activity." And then we introduced politics to an already tribal place. Yes, politics is never good. Once you get politics involved or government involved in anything, it's the kiss of death typically. And you can see here a lot of stuff like gaslighting, fake announcements, etc. Cardano is going to take over Bitcoin, all that stuff. And people are upset.
But let's check on Flexington and see if he's correct. We know the fees completely suck, $129. And there seems to be some political issues going on. Let's check out adoption. Wow, this is interesting. Cardano has less users than Ripple. XRP has 24,000 users. Cardano has 23,400 users, which is shocking. Cardano, the last bull run, I remember 2021, had over a quarter of a million daily users. So, it's a tenth of what it was 4 years ago. Again, quite sad.
But let's get on to more happy stories. Sharps. This is another treasury company. And there are tons of treasury companies coming, including Panteras and Galaxies and the SE Caner behind a big banking deal with other players to buy a truckload of Solana. This is 400 million to buy pressure that could hit next week. That's a lot, especially with the price just over 200. And Matt Hogan, he is the Bitwise CIO, Chief Investment Officer. He said, "Solana will soon set new all-time highs, mirroring what we've been saying. Bitcoin makes new all-time highs first. Ethereum had a huge run. It did break a new all-time high, but then fell off again very quickly." And Hogan argues that Sol is about to do the same thing. It is lagging behind Ethereum so far, but he believes that's all about to change because eight new ETFs are coming and a huge amount of DATs, digital asset treasury companies are coming too. And the difference is Solana is a much smaller asset compared to Ethereum. So when these DATs hit, they're going to squeeze the price up, especially in the more friendly economic regulatory landscape too.
But he's not the only one as well. Daniel Chung believes Solana likely benefits disproportionately more than Ethereum from the buying pressure from DATs. Correct. Expect many more doubts to announce for Solana in the coming weeks. Correct. And then Sol new all-time highs soon. Correct. We just saw just go back here again. It's been a painful summer, but now it's showing tremendous relative strength. While everything else is down, this thing is up.
I do have a final chart just related to this discussion that I want to show you. And I do look at historical returns. And guess what? Bitcoin typically does not like September. But the average returns for Solana in September every year are 14%. That's not bad. Will history repeat? I don't know. You can see August is mixed. Uh, October is very, very good. So is Moonvember with the exception of 2022. That's when Solana got a kick in the teeth, fell 56%. And we all know because of the FTX crap going on. So that's a little bit of history there. We're going into a very, very, very strong period. And I would like to remind you, we've never had this stage of a bull run happen, all season happen in combination with rate cuts. Oo, it's going to be exciting.
And guess what? People are going to bit deny too from Cointelegraph. People, retail investors are now borrowing over $40 billion on-chain. Okay. Cryptonated startups rather than try, they're borrowing against the crypto. They're borrowing USDC, maybe to buy more crypto. They're getting ready, but that's big. Everything is changing very fast. I covered as well this week how Robin Hood had done more trading volume. No, uh, Hype, Hyperlquid had done more trading volume than Robin Hood, which has 30 million customers. Bonkers, getting the attention of Trefy.
And speaking of stocks, um, a lot of good signs too as well that September may not be that bad because the equity bull market is robust. And the short answer of this is ignore the bears. Because when you look historically, when 75% of stocks in three of four major cyclical sectors are above their 200-day moving averages since 1953, this signal has consistently preceded a very strong subsequent 12 months in the S&P 500. While large caps take lead and winners take most, we know that small caps are beginning to gain ground as well. And this broad market participation has been a key sign of a sustainable rally for the next 12 months. Momentum remains very strong, ladies and gentlemen.
And a little bit of Tesla news. I did a very dedicated video around Tesla Master Plan Part Four, uh, which is interesting, yesterday, but this one is from CERN Basher today. CERN added Bitcoin to his Tesla valuation model. Why do we care? Well, a couple of reasons. It's the big orange box here. It's bigger than robo trucking. It's nearly as big as robo taxi, which means it's the third largest contributor to market cap. Also, this is for 2035, and he believes the model, uh, could hit a market cap of 150 trillion by 2035. I know it's bonkers to think about, but directionally, he is very correct. How high we go, I'm not sure. Either way, it's going to be incredible. No doubt in my mind. But Bitcoin has become the third most important part of Tesla's business. He didn't give exact numbers, but I tried to reverse engineer some of it. So if you take not $150 trillion, but if you just take a hundred trillion market cap for Tesla, that's about $30,000 per share in 2035, which is bonkers considering it's only 300 bucks. Now that's 100x, ladies and gentlemen. But even crazier, when I tried to back into that orange box, Bitcoin, that means Bitcoin could be close to a billion dollars in value. Anyway, we'll see how well this turns out. Either way, it's going to be a fun future. Stay healthy, my friends.
And speaking of tech and AI, this is the relative size of equity market caps around the world. A fascinating study. You can see here now, Nvidia just eclipsed the size of the Canadian stock market. Nvidia, $4.4 trillion market cap. Canada at 3.8 trillion. That's their equity market cap. UK 3.7. I was actually surprised that the Canadian market is bigger than the UK stock market. France 3.4. Germany has shrunk a lot down to 3.1, and Italy 1.0. Japan 7.5. I wonder how much Metaplanet makes up of that 7.5 trillion. And the US, again, winner takes most, 67.8 trillion. So, uh, everything in perspective.
And again, still on the topic of AI. Uh, don't steal stuff, everybody. Be honest. But this is the person that took IP from Grock and he gave them to OpenAI. He sold his stock within XAI, $7 million worth, ran, took a job for Scam Alman, and the IP as well. And, uh, either way, uh, there will be repercussions. And the bad thing is when you steal, not only do you tarnish your reputation for the rest of your life and nobody will ever trust you, but now XAI can sue OpenAI, not just this guy. So when you bring on an employee who is a corrupt, thieving piece of crap, yeah, there's repercussions everywhere. So please everybody be kind. Don't steal.
And finishing with meme dour. That is a beautiful little chart. Thank you. Bitcoin long meme dour. Fiat only central banks can print money. Correct. And they do it with the crazy level. Crypto, anyone can print money. We saw that with some of the scams, uh, last week. And Bitcoin, no one can print money. Okay, very important lesson here somewhere. I hope you guys enjoyed it. Thank you once again to the beautiful moderators in the chat, Sha D and TN. You rock. And hi Jason. And a big thank you as well to Andy down there in Australia, Renato, Nick M in Canada, speaking of the Canadians and their big stock market, Angel Blacken, Psych Experience in Europe, Joe Biden's Daycare, Forest, Cybertruck Crypto, and Bitcoin Broccoli. Thank you all. See you tomorrow for the Q&A. Banger questions coming your way. Have a good day. [Music]