Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Friday, November 14th brief, it is 8 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. Yesterday, I made a big mistake. So the goal was simply to reach $92,000, as you know, I've been telling you for a while. And in fact, when we made this trend change on H1, I decided to go long, and that was simply my mistake when we made this MSS that we had right here. When we came back into the IFVG, right in this zone, I decided to go long in this zone simply in view of the CPI results, so of American inflation at 2:30 PM yesterday, which were ultimately canceled. And therefore, well, we had a Dom on Bitcoin, we had quite a few longs that opened. So the mistake was really to open this long. And anyway, well, and the unfortunate thing is that I was short just before. So I had shorted right here. So I was short at 10,500 with an SL, so right here, and my target was $92,000. So clearly, there we were on that, so it's a real shame, we were on a 7 RR, if we went to $92,000, I would currently be at a 5 RR. So that's a shame. So instead of that, I lost 1 R simply because I didn't look at the H4 trend and I decided to zoom out my chart. And in fact, on H4, well, we had completely gone down. There wasn't necessarily a need to cut this short, I just don't remember where I cut it. I cut it here. There was no need to cut it, and that's what simply led to the failure of this trade. So it's a real shame, but in any case, we are arriving in the key zone. I think we can easily reach the zone of $91,000 to $88,000. Now, we are activated in a zone that is quite key, and given that when we look at this small zone, we still have an FVG that we filled in this zone. So that means that if from here, we have a trend change on H4, logically we could turn bullish again. In any case, as long as there is no H4 trend change, I will not try to go long. But currently, well, this zone, we have, no, we have front-run this zone. I thought we had bounced in it. So logically, we should return to it. It's very probable. I think we have a good chance of returning to $95,400 at a minimum. And if this zone were not to hold, we would reach $90,000, so between $88,600 and $91,600, given that it is an H4 FVG zone, it is also a daily FVG zone. When we look at the daily, it is also the OTE zone of the entire bullish movement. So there we are, and logically it is a rather key zone in which we should return and we should bounce. Now, if we don't bounce in this zone, clearly say goodbye to Bitcoin and see you in 4 years. Given that if this zone doesn't hold, logically, there's no reason for this $74,000 zone to hold. Given that we had an equal low in this zone. It's not a clean bottom. So if we get too close to it, we will liquidate below this zone, and that will be really problematic for the future, for the altcoins, etc. But in any case, for now, we should bounce at $95,400 and then perhaps aim for, in a second step, aim for $88,600 to $91,600. In terms of economic news, today, we have nothing. We simply have French inflation. So all American news has been withdrawn currently, given that due to the delay, we haven't had any news due to the shutdown. We will have them, however, next week. So next week, we will have the same thing, we will have the Fed minutes at 8 PM on Wednesday. So expect a lot of movement. We will have the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 2:30 PM on Thursday. We will also have the Manufacturing PMI at 3:45 PM on Friday. So we will also have additional news due to the delay, particularly on unemployment figures, jobs, and also inflation. So logically, we should have quite a few unexpected news, and that should move the consensus for the next FOMC meeting on a rate cut or hike, which currently has a 50% chance of a cut. So we are not at a 100% sure rate cut either. So be careful about that. In terms of crypto bubble, what we see is that it's red everywhere. That's normal, Bitcoin has really plummeted. So the altcoins have followed, and even the strongest altcoins have clearly taken a big hit. So clearly, it's red everywhere. In terms of funding and open interest, what we see is that currently, it's mostly longs that are opening. So the same thing, when it's longs opening on a bottom that isn't a real bottom, logically it's not a bottom. We could go a bit lower. The same thing here, there were a few shorts that opened. So that means we accumulated liquidations right here at $100,600. And here, what we see otherwise, is that it's a majority of longs. We see an increase in open interest. The same thing here, etc. So that means that here it was a majority of longs. So therefore, we have quite a few liquidations to take. But if we look at the liquidations, we have taken most of what was there to take. We don't have much left. Most liquidations are now to the upside. But if we look at one month, well, it's clearly completely empty. So we have nothing to liquidate below, simply because we have never been there yet on a monthly basis. If we look at six months to really have the history of the chart before. We'll see a bit what it looks like, if it loads. And there, same thing, we have no history. So clearly, liquidations are no longer useful in this context. But that doesn't prevent us from going much lower. If we look at what the whales are doing, the only bullish element is that the whales are accumulating this movement. There was a purchase of nearly $100 million that was made right here at $100,000. That didn't prevent it from falling. But in any case, there might be a movement for which the whales are precursors of this movement. Now, well, that's the only bullish bias there is, so we shouldn't necessarily take it into account currently. So technically, what I think is that we will reach $95,443. That's on daily. If we look at H4, same thing. We are on that. We could very well go back to the FVG we have in this zone. Which is present between $100,500 and $101,390. That would be a retest of this boss to then be able to go a bit lower. So that would be a retest of this boss. It is also a zone, in my opinion, of this short-term movement, if we zoom in a bit. Yes. So logically, this zone of $100,900 to $100,500, logically if we go there, we will have a rejection and we can go a bit lower. So we will have to be careful in this zone. In any case, I will not open any longs until I see an H4 trend change, I remain focused on shorting. And clearly, this is where it can be dangerous for everyone because everyone will be looking for FOMO, and so it can be really, really misinterpreted sometimes, and therefore, it allows to limit the damage, to wait for this H4 trend change. So, well, the plan remains bearish currently. Logically, we should reach $100,500. If we reach this $100,000, it will be a short, and potentially to aim for $90,000. So the RR could be very, very good. However, I don't think I will put my stop above this zone. I think I will put it rather above the $107 zone, even if the R reward is a bit less good. But in any case, I don't think it's wise to put your stop at $103,982, given that we can also very well wick and reach this zone and then go back down. That would be really tricky for everyone. In any case, I hope you enjoyed this video. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We'll meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.